Solar Energy India

KVK Energy 22 FEBURARY, 2012

KVK Energy Ventures Private
Limited

PRESENTATION
BY
GOPAL LAL SOMANI


Contents
• Introduction- Overview
• National Energy Scenario
• Grid connected Solar Energy- Progress
• NSM / NVVN Phase I – Bidding Results and
Progress
• Journey towards grid parity
• Long term Development and Growth under NSM
• Cost trends and predicted charts
• Key Drivers
• Concerns and limitation
• Conclusion


Renewable energy – Overview

• Principal renewable sources of energy are : Solar, Wind,
Biomass, Small hydro, Geo thermal etc.
• Renewable energy capacity reached 23129 MW, accounting
for 10.75% of the total installed power capacity in India
• The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) plans to
take the total renewable energy capacity to more than
30000 MW during 11th Five-Year Plan
• Solar energy capacity development is miniscule at the
moment
• Indian Solar energy market is estimated worth 100000 MW
in long term .
• Currently solar energy accounts for a fraction (less than
2.5%) of the total renewable energy installed capacity in
India.


Renewable energy – Overview

• Government is providing various direct and indirect incentives
to encourage investment in solar energy.
• Solar energy is at a nascent stage in India and the Solar
Photovoltaic method of power generation is dominant at
present
• Solar energy can be harnessed through two methods –
A. Solar Photovoltaic (SPV) - converts light directly into
electricity. Cr. Silicon and Thin Film are the popular
technologies in the market
B. Solar Thermal/Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) - converts
light first into heat and then into electricity Parabolic trough,
Central Tower, CLFR and Dish technologies are popular.


Source MNRE


National Energy Scenario


GRID CONNECTED SOLAR POWER - PROGRESS

• Amendment in National Solar Policy for Solar Specific RPO set to
0.25% in phase I and to increase to 3% by end 13th Plan.
• Announcement of separate solar policies by states and RPO’s by
state Regulators.
• Announcement of REC mechanism by CERC / SREC with floor and
forbearance prices for trading through Renewable Energy Trading
Centres.
• Exemption from Environmental Clearances for Solar Energy Projects.
• NVVN / NTPC authorised for allotment of solar energy projects of
Phase I (Thermal and PV) for 1000 MW capacity.


NSM/NVVN PHASE I BIDDING RESULT

LEC TARIFF TRENDS


NVVN/NSM-Phase I – Bidding Process

• Solar Thermal CSP technology: 7 projects
aggregating to 470 MW capacity selected in
December, 2010.
• Transparent reverse bidding process followed by
NVVN resulted into average tariff of Rs. 11.48
against CERC bench mark tariff of Rs. 15.57
• Solar PV technology: 30x5 MW for 150 MW
capacity selected in December, 2010.


NVVN/NSM-Phase I – Bidding Process

• Transparent reverse bidding process followed by
NVVN resulted into average tariff of Rs. 12.16 against
CERC bench mark tariff of Rs. 17.93
• Most projects are connected got synchronised and
connected to Grid in January, 2012.
• 350 MW Batch II projects: 28 projects got selected
with minimum and maximum tariff of Rs. 7.49 and
Rs.9.44. Weighted average tariff of Rs. 8.77 has
further been achieved against CERC bench mark tariff
of Rs.15.32 / unit


Anticipated Commissining - Progress

• Projects are scheduled for commissioning by end 2012
or March 2013.
• Solar Power installed capacity: (+) 400 MW as on date
and expected to reach 500 (+) by March 2012.
(Combined under Gujarat Policy and JNSM).
• Allotment of solar projects under JNSM Phase II and
bidding process in states will continue for additional
capacity of 2500 MW.
• Solar energy heading to achieve grid parity by 2015 –
2017.


Target for development- Grid parity

• Phased development of additional 5000 – 7500 MW
through competitive bidding will result solar energy into self
sustainability and cost economic viable solution for large
scale development.
• Development at economy of scale in solar energy will allow
explosive development through open access, REC, captive
and IPP mode.
• With 3% RPO mandate under the Electricity Act 2003, Solar
energy expected to achieve grid parity in 2015 – 17, the
solar energy will surpass NSM target and achieve capacity
built up to 50000 – 60000 MW in 2022.


Growth of Solar Power under JNSM


Cost trends & predicted scenario.
$3.19/W
0.18
0.41
$2.65/W
0.18
0.50
0.41 $2.17/W
0.17 $2.02/W $1.9/W
0.30 0.50 0.39 0.17 $2.00/W
0.16 $1.71/W$1.63/W
1.79 0.38 0.16 $1.56/W $1.5/W
0.36 0.15 0.15 $1.44/W
0.21 0.48 0.35 0.15
0.34 0.33 0.14 0.14
0.46 0.33
1.35 0.44 0.32 0.31
0.43 0.42
0.19 0.41 0.40
0.18 0.16 0.39 0.38
0.94 0.15 0.14
0.84 0.77 0.14 0.13
0.71 0.65 0.12 0.12
0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Inverter Balance of plant Engineering, procurement & construction Other

Source: BNEF


Decreasing costs for Crystalline -Silicon

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

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2009 2010 2011 2012

5" mono wafers 6" multi wafers 6" mono wafers Mono cells Multi cells

Source: BNEF


Decreasing costs for Crystalline -Silicon

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
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A
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c
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2010 2011 2012
Multicrystalline silicon module (c-Si) Monocrystalline silicon module (c-Si)

Source:BNEF


Module Pricing – Current trends


Key Drivers in future market

• Optimum solar radiations 5.5 – 6.5 Kwh / m2 / day
• More than 300+ yearly Sunny days.
• Strong infrastructure and policy support.
• Overwhelming response by developers and investors
expressed in NSM Phase I bidding. Applications worth
30000 MW already registered in various states for
development.16000 MW applications alone in Rajasthan.
• Silicon, wafer, cell and module prices crashed in recent past
and continue to fall further. (Silicon price from $450 / kg in
2008 to $ 50 / kg in 2011 and cell price from $ 2 to $ 0.6/
W)
• Declining cost on PV systems, innovations in technologies
and efficiency gain will support rapid development and long
term viable investment in Gujarat and Rajasthan
• Abundant desert land available in Thar Desert


Challenges
• Solar thermal capital cost are still unaffordable and
prohibitive.
• Accurate solar resource assessment. High risk and
serious concerns by FI’s.
• Concerns on long term performance due to high
temperature environment and fast degradation
• High dependence on proprietary items and BOS
supplies from import .
• High finance cost in India.
• Lack of human recourse and manpower in EPC/O&M.
• Limited support on R&D activities and transmission
infrastructure.
• High dust level in maintenance

Concerns on quality and installation


Conclusion

Journey has started rapidly towards
affordable and GRID PARITY SOLAR
ENERGY in India with significant
boost resulted in two bidding
sessions carried out by NVVN /
MNRE


We Envision “To be an integrated player across the Energy Value Chain,
delivering quality power at competitive cost and creating superior value
for all stake holders"

Thank You

Contact:
GOPAL LAL SOMANI

Mobile : 91 8800988699

Solar Energy India

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