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![Modelling renewable energy deployment potential
Scenario 4
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 (high without
Inputs (low) (medium) (high) wind)
Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6%
DECC - 'high DECC - 'high
Energy price DECC - 'low' DECC - 'high' high' energy high' energy
[1]
energy prices energy prices prices prices
current rates current rates
(FIT/ RHI (FIT/ RHI
designed to designed to
give fixed give fixed
return & will return & will
Financial lower than adjust to adjust to
incentives current tariff energy energy
(FIT/RHI) rates current rates prices) prices)
Project
deployment
rate
(wind/biomas 30% (0% for
s/EfW) 8% 15% 30% wind)
Green policy
support (for
building
integrated
technologies) Low Medium High High
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 3](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/camcocrifpresentationpublicsector12oct2011finalv1-111018050902-phpapp02/85/Camco-CRIF-presentation-public-sector-12-oct-2011-4-320.jpg)
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Camco CRIF presentation public sector 12 oct 2011
- 1. Cambridgeshire Renewables InfrastructureFramework Presentation to Senior Public Sector Event 12/10/11 Duncan Price, Director Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
- 2. Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbonobjectives What is Cambridgeshire's potential? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 1
- 3. Cambridgeshire is progressingwell Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 2
- 4. Modelling renewable energydeployment potential Scenario 4 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 (high without Inputs (low) (medium) (high) wind) Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6% DECC - 'high DECC - 'high Energy price DECC - 'low' DECC - 'high' high' energy high' energy [1] energy prices energy prices prices prices current rates current rates (FIT/ RHI (FIT/ RHI designed to designed to give fixed give fixed return & will return & will Financial lower than adjust to adjust to incentives current tariff energy energy (FIT/RHI) rates current rates prices) prices) Project deployment rate (wind/biomas 30% (0% for s/EfW) 8% 15% 30% wind) Green policy support (for building integrated technologies) Low Medium High High Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 3
- 5. Deployment options forrenewable energy Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 4
- 6. Renewable electricity potentialis very large Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 5
- 7. Renewable heat constitutesthe greater challenge Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 6
- 8. S. Cambs andHunts have largest resource Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 7
- 9. District heating potentiallies in Cambridge and Huntingdon Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 8
- 10. Substantial infrastructure isneeded Number of installations associated with delivery of each scenario Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 9
- 11. Significant investment opportunity Investment potential for each scenario in £millions Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 10
- 12. Energy efficiency andrenewable energy can close the carbon ‘gap’ Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 11
- 13. Conclusions • Cambridgeshire is doing well – especially renewable electricity • There is potential for more – solar, biomass, heat pumps, wind • All technologies are needed – heat and electricity • Somewhere between medium & high scenarios delivers by 2031 • Also closes carbon gap to meet pro-rata 4th carbon budget • Significant investment potential – up to £6.1 billion for high scenario Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 12
- 14. Thanks Duncan Price Renewable energy delivery pathways Director Camco t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150 m: +44 (0)7769 692 610 e: duncan.price@camcoglobal.com 172 Tottenham Court Road London W1T 7NS United Kingdom www.camcoglobal.com Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 13
- 15. There are threedelivery pathways Community Public Sector Commercial Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 14
- 16. What is thepotential for each pathway? Deployment potential by pathway 1600 1400 Deployment potential (GWh) Wind >=6 turbines 1200 Wind <=5 turbines 1000 Biomass 800 ASHP 600 GSHP 400 SWH 200 PV 0 Public sector Community Commercial Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 15
- 17. Community deployment potential • PV • 145MWp, 1,150,000m² of panels • 460 non-residential buildings and 30,400 houses (14%) • £640m capex, £150m NPV • Solar water heating • 42,600m² of panels on 8,500 houses (4%) • £50m capex, £20m NPV • Heat pumps • 43,000 or 15% of houses • £140m capex, £75m NPV • Wind • 75MW or 30 turbines • £120m capex, £8m NPV Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 16
- 18. Vision for communitydelivery pathway • Communities have strong incentive to invest in renewable energy • Effective hard and soft incentive mechanisms • Minimisation of risks and barriers to implementation • Communities have access to a range of funding sources • Availability of applicable finance options for a range of project types • Gaining access to existing and new funding sources • Communities are maximising learning from leading practice • Demonstration case studies of successful community energy schemes • Access to quality impartial ‘self-help’ guidance and information Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 17
- 19. Vision for communitydelivery pathway • Communities are managing energy projects effectively • Identification of governance methods and relative benefits of each approach • Range of delivery options identified • Investment and delivery opportunities are clearly communicated Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 18
- 20. Public sector deploymentpotential • PV • Wind • 39MWp, 300,00m² of panels • 27MW or 11 turbines • 180 non-residential buildings and 7,500 • £44m capex, £3m NPV houses (18%) • Biomass • £170m capex, £40m NPV • 14 installations of 1.5MW • Solar water heating • 8,400m² of panels on 1,700 houses (4%) • £10m capex, £4m NPV • Heat pumps • 8,100 or 20% of houses • £40m capex, £23m NPV Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 19
- 21. Vision for publicsector pathway • Public sector is maximising value of its own hard assets • PV on roofs of offices, schools, hospitals, leisure centres • PV in social housing – own stock, ALMO and with housing association partners • Appropriate wind development on public land • Provision of anchor loads for district heating and CHP • Renewable energy transition plan for each building • Demonstration projects for advanced technologies and new approaches Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 20
- 22. Vision for publicsector pathway • Public sector is maximising value from its soft assets • Planning policies – LDF, LDO, s106, CIL • Enabling mechanisms – community energy fund, grant funding • Public sector led development – de-risking projects, early project promotion • Political engagement – FIT, RHI and Green Deal policy certainty, tariffs, etc. • Market development – awareness raising, pipeline development for Green Deal Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 21
- 23. Vision for publicsector pathway Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 22
- 24. Commercial deployment potential • PV • Wind • 160MWp, 1,300,000m² of panels • For wind parks ≤5 turbines, 28MW or 11 turbines • 3,200 non-residential buildings • For wind parks ≥6 turbines, 375MW • £720m capex, £165m NPV or 150 turbines • Solar water heating • Total capex £660m, £45m NPV • 8,300m² of panels on 1,700 or 20% of • Biomass buildings • 14 installations of 1.5MW • £9m capex, £4m NPV • Heat pumps • 200 or 3% of buildings • £75m capex, £43m NPV Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 23
- 25. Vision for commercialdelivery pathway • Investment opportunities are clearly identified • Technical, economic and deployment potential based on WP1 • Benefits of growth agenda are articulated • Preconditions are clearly understood by public and private sector + community • Public sector is facilitating investment • Establishing clear public policies and protocols to provide market certainty • Engaging in constructive dialogue with community • Using its own assets to lever wider opportunities Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 24
- 26. Vision for commercialdelivery pathway • Investment is flowing, projects being developed • Cambridgeshire seen as county with good renewable energy development potential • Cambridgeshire demonstrated to be investor-friendly • Supply chain is in place, levels of risk and return meet minimum commercial requirements • Constructive dialogue, community benefiting and accepting Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 25
- 27. Vision for commercialdelivery pathway Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 26
- 28. PV deployment potential CambridgeshireRenewables Infrastructure Framework 27
- 29. Wind deployment potential CambridgeshireRenewables Infrastructure Framework 28
- 30. What will thepathways look like or include? • Compelling vision of what can be achieved • Shared understanding of barriers and risks to implementation • Cambridgeshire benefiting from up to £6.5bn of investment • Local businesses are providing goods and services to the sector • Leading county where people choose to invest • Consistent and pro-active policy framework is adopted • The public sector takes the lead • Project plan for shared decision making Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 29
- 31. Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbonobjectives Discussion Points Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 30
- 32. What will thepublic sector pathways look like? • How can the public sector facilitate and support the delivery of more renewable energy delivery in Cambridgeshire? • What is the role of the Public Sector? • How can the public sector create the conditions to attract business and community buy-in and investment in Cambridgeshire? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 31
- 33. Thanks Duncan Price Director Camco t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150 m: +44 (0)7769 692 610 e: duncan.price@camcoglobal.com 172 Tottenham Court Road London W1T 7NS United Kingdom www.camcoglobal.com Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 32