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Economic Indicators:
Challenges for the 7 Rivers
Region
Non-Standard Disclaimer:

I am an economist.

I am not a prophet, visionary, seer, oracle or a
fortune teller.

Those folks have respectable jobs.
Cumulative Monthly Employment
          Decline from NBER Peak (pct)
4
                                           1990
2


0
                                           2001

-2


-4

                                    2007
-6


-8
     1         12     23      34      45
Real Gross Domestic Product :
13.6
               Trillions of 2000 Dollars
13.4
                                         Original Data

13.2


13.0
                                                      Revised Data


12.8


12.6


12.4
   Jan-06     Jan-07   Jan-08   Jan-09       Jan-10         Jan-11
Cumulative % Decline in Quarterly
20.0
                GDP from Peak
15.0
                                        1981

                                               2001
10.0
                                               1991


 5.0


 0.0

                                      2007
 -5.0


-10.0
        0       4        8       12            16
100%
              Percent of unemployed by
              unemployment duration
 75%
                                            < 5 Weeks




 50%                                        5 to 14 Weeks




 25%                                        15 to 26 Weeks



                                            > 26 Weeks

  0%
   Jan-80       Jan-84   Jan-88   Jan-92   Jan-96   Jan-00   Jan-04   Jan-08
Source: BLS
2950.0
                                                    The Dayton Promise?: 240,000
                                                                Jobs
Minnesota Non-Farm Employment: Thousands



                                           2900.0

                                           2850.0

                                           2800.0

                                           2750.0

                                           2700.0

                                           2650.0

                                           2600.0

                                           2550.0

                                           2500.0

                                           2450.0
                                                Jan-04   Jan-06   Jan-08   Jan-10   Jan-12   Jan-14
Source: BLS, http://goo.gl/lE69o
The Walker Promise: 250,000 Jobs
                                           3050.0
Wisconsin Non-Farm Employment: Thousands



                                           3000.0

                                           2950.0

                                           2900.0

                                           2850.0

                                           2800.0

                                           2750.0

                                           2700.0

                                           2650.0

                                           2600.0

                                           2550.0
                                                Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
Source: BLS, http://goo.gl/lE69o
Percentage - Employment to
66                   Population Ratio
64

62

60

58

56

54

52

50
  1948   1954   1960   1966   1972   1978   1984   1990   1996   2002   2008
4.0        Monthly Job Separations by
                Type in Millions
3.5

                                           Quits
3.0



2.5



2.0



1.5
                     Layoffs and Discharges
1.0
  Jan-01    Jan-03     Jan-05     Jan-07      Jan-09   Jan-11
5.5    Monthly Job Openings in Millions
5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5                          Openings

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0
  Jan-01   Jan-03   Jan-05     Jan-07   Jan-09   Jan-11
When it comes to your current
          job security, are you...
very satisfied



   somewhat
    satisfied



  somewhat
  dissatisfied                 Fall 2011

                               Spring 2011
      very
  dissatisfied


                 -   10   20    30           40   50
Thinking about the country's
        economic conditions...

Pretty much hit the bottom



         Still a ways to go


                                    Fall 2011
                    Other           Spring 2011



                              -   10 20 30 40 50 60
Bad Days for the Dow Jones Industrials
             Average: Percentage Change from Previous
10/19/1987                     Close
10/26/1987
10/15/2008
 12/1/2008
 10/9/2008
 9/17/2001
10/27/1997
 9/29/2008
10/13/1989
  1/8/1988
 5/21/1940
 5/14/1940
 9/26/1955
 8/31/1998
10/22/2008
 5/28/1962
 4/14/2000
  8/8/2011                                     August 8, 2011
11/20/2008
  9/3/1946
 10/7/2008
11/19/2008
 11/5/2008
 5/13/1940
 11/6/2008
 4/14/1988
 5/17/1940

        -35.0%   -30.0%   -25.0%   -20.0%   -15.0%   -10.0%     -5.0%   0.0%
7 Rivers Consumer Sentiment
110


100


90


80
                                                                  7 Rivers
70


60


50                                                           National

40
 April 2002 2003 2004
         April April March 2006 2007*** February 2009*** 2010***
                            April August 2008***February April 2011***
Number of Building Permits in
80.0               La Crosse MSA
70.0

60.0        Total Permits

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0
            Single Unit Permits
10.0

 0.0
   Jan-99        Jan-01      Jan-03   Jan-05   Jan-07   Jan-09   Jan-11
Broken Windows Fallacy
Case-Shiller Index of Home Prices
240.0

220.0

200.0

180.0

160.0
                                                              7 Rivers Region
140.0

120.0                                                              Minneapolis


100.0
                                                                      Phoenix

 80.0
    Jan-98   Jan-00   Jan-02   Jan-04   Jan-06   Jan-08   Jan-10
Case-Shiller Index of Home
150.0
                      Prices

                                                    7 Rivers Region
130.0




                                                         Minneapolis
110.0


                                                             Phoenix



 90.0
   Aug-08   Feb-09   Aug-09   Feb-10   Aug-10   Feb-11
Number of Single Family Listings
250.0
          Sold Monthly 7 Rivers Region
200.0



150.0



100.0



 50.0



  0.0
  1997-Jan 1999-Jan 2001-Jan 2003-Jan 2005-Jan 2007-Jan 2009-Jan 2011-Jan
Total Number of Foreclosures Filed in: Jackson, Juneau,
             La Crosse, Monroe, Trempealeau, Vernon Counties
1,000.0

 900.0

 800.0

 700.0

 600.0

 500.0

 400.0

 300.0

 200.0

 100.0

     -
          1998     2000     2002    2004     2006    2008     2010
La Crosse Foreclosures Filed
300.0


250.0


200.0


150.0


100.0


 50.0


   -
        1990    1993   1996   1999   2002   2005   2008   2011*
Thanks.

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Sept 2011 final

  • 2. Non-Standard Disclaimer: I am an economist. I am not a prophet, visionary, seer, oracle or a fortune teller. Those folks have respectable jobs.
  • 3. Cumulative Monthly Employment Decline from NBER Peak (pct) 4 1990 2 0 2001 -2 -4 2007 -6 -8 1 12 23 34 45
  • 4. Real Gross Domestic Product : 13.6 Trillions of 2000 Dollars 13.4 Original Data 13.2 13.0 Revised Data 12.8 12.6 12.4 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
  • 5. Cumulative % Decline in Quarterly 20.0 GDP from Peak 15.0 1981 2001 10.0 1991 5.0 0.0 2007 -5.0 -10.0 0 4 8 12 16
  • 6. 100% Percent of unemployed by unemployment duration 75% < 5 Weeks 50% 5 to 14 Weeks 25% 15 to 26 Weeks > 26 Weeks 0% Jan-80 Jan-84 Jan-88 Jan-92 Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Source: BLS
  • 7.
  • 8. 2950.0 The Dayton Promise?: 240,000 Jobs Minnesota Non-Farm Employment: Thousands 2900.0 2850.0 2800.0 2750.0 2700.0 2650.0 2600.0 2550.0 2500.0 2450.0 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Source: BLS, http://goo.gl/lE69o
  • 9. The Walker Promise: 250,000 Jobs 3050.0 Wisconsin Non-Farm Employment: Thousands 3000.0 2950.0 2900.0 2850.0 2800.0 2750.0 2700.0 2650.0 2600.0 2550.0 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Source: BLS, http://goo.gl/lE69o
  • 10. Percentage - Employment to 66 Population Ratio 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
  • 11. 4.0 Monthly Job Separations by Type in Millions 3.5 Quits 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 Layoffs and Discharges 1.0 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11
  • 12. 5.5 Monthly Job Openings in Millions 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 Openings 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11
  • 13. When it comes to your current job security, are you... very satisfied somewhat satisfied somewhat dissatisfied Fall 2011 Spring 2011 very dissatisfied - 10 20 30 40 50
  • 14. Thinking about the country's economic conditions... Pretty much hit the bottom Still a ways to go Fall 2011 Other Spring 2011 - 10 20 30 40 50 60
  • 15. Bad Days for the Dow Jones Industrials Average: Percentage Change from Previous 10/19/1987 Close 10/26/1987 10/15/2008 12/1/2008 10/9/2008 9/17/2001 10/27/1997 9/29/2008 10/13/1989 1/8/1988 5/21/1940 5/14/1940 9/26/1955 8/31/1998 10/22/2008 5/28/1962 4/14/2000 8/8/2011 August 8, 2011 11/20/2008 9/3/1946 10/7/2008 11/19/2008 11/5/2008 5/13/1940 11/6/2008 4/14/1988 5/17/1940 -35.0% -30.0% -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0%
  • 16.
  • 17. 7 Rivers Consumer Sentiment 110 100 90 80 7 Rivers 70 60 50 National 40 April 2002 2003 2004 April April March 2006 2007*** February 2009*** 2010*** April August 2008***February April 2011***
  • 18.
  • 19. Number of Building Permits in 80.0 La Crosse MSA 70.0 60.0 Total Permits 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 Single Unit Permits 10.0 0.0 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24. Case-Shiller Index of Home Prices 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 7 Rivers Region 140.0 120.0 Minneapolis 100.0 Phoenix 80.0 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10
  • 25. Case-Shiller Index of Home 150.0 Prices 7 Rivers Region 130.0 Minneapolis 110.0 Phoenix 90.0 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11
  • 26. Number of Single Family Listings 250.0 Sold Monthly 7 Rivers Region 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 1997-Jan 1999-Jan 2001-Jan 2003-Jan 2005-Jan 2007-Jan 2009-Jan 2011-Jan
  • 27. Total Number of Foreclosures Filed in: Jackson, Juneau, La Crosse, Monroe, Trempealeau, Vernon Counties 1,000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 - 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
  • 28. La Crosse Foreclosures Filed 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 - 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011*
  • 29.
  • 30.

Editor's Notes

  1. Changing gender composition
  2. http://www.flickr.com/photos/27537560@N07/6018950891/sizes/m/in/photostream/
  3. State employment ? Walker watch?
  4. http://www.flickr.com/photos/27537560@N07/6018952515/sizes/m/in/photostream/
  5. http://www.flickr.com/photos/10187806@N00/5754595879/sizes/o/in/photostream/Damaged car parked at an apartment complex in La Crosse, Wisconsin, following a small tornado which struck the city on May 22, 2011.Broken Window Fallacy.
  6. http://www.flickr.com/photos/unseenwoods/5050600191/sizes/o/in/photostream/Lansing
  7. http://web.stratfor.com/images/northamerica/map/North_America_cropland_intensity_800.jpghttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/the-geopolitics-of-the-united-states-part-1-the-inevitable-empire/