The document summarizes an industry luncheon presentation on the Australian economy and real estate market. It provides forecasts for interest rates, commodity prices, GDP growth, and consumer price inflation. Charts show trends in house prices, property completions and sales, household debt levels, and the exchange rate. Key challenges discussed include consumer confidence, funding availability, and market volatility.
Развитие финансового сектора Казахстана в посткризисный периодАО "Самрук-Казына"
Презентация к докладу заместителя председателя Национального банка Казахстана Данияра Акишева на казахстанско-американском инвестиционном форуме в Нью-Йорке 7 декаьря 2011 года.
Mercer Capital | Webinar: Outlook for Bank M&A in 2013 | February 12 2013Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's expectations for bank M&A in 2013, which follows a modest pick-up in activity in 2012 vis-à-vis 2011, are presented. Investors are anxious for M&A to increase given the earnings outlook, but seller expectations and regulatory actions are acting as a governor—at least for the now.
Развитие финансового сектора Казахстана в посткризисный периодАО "Самрук-Казына"
Презентация к докладу заместителя председателя Национального банка Казахстана Данияра Акишева на казахстанско-американском инвестиционном форуме в Нью-Йорке 7 декаьря 2011 года.
Mercer Capital | Webinar: Outlook for Bank M&A in 2013 | February 12 2013Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's expectations for bank M&A in 2013, which follows a modest pick-up in activity in 2012 vis-à-vis 2011, are presented. Investors are anxious for M&A to increase given the earnings outlook, but seller expectations and regulatory actions are acting as a governor—at least for the now.
Tourism's economic importance to the Transylvania Co. & Brevard North Carolina's economy. Tourist spending, jobs & taxes generated. Includes counties in Western North Carolina. Presentation to Transylvania Co. Brevard Chamber of Commerce and Brevard College.
Even with temperatures cooling, the Twin Cities housing market remained in its summer swelter of a holding pattern for the week ending August 28. Signed purchase agreements topped off at 636, continuing a sub-700 trend that has gone on for 15 weeks in a row. Prior to that, we had 15 weeks in a row of 700 or more pending sales per week.
Think about that for a minute. There were more pending sales in the metro during the first full week of February than in the last full week of August. And last year at this time, we were consistently hitting 1,000 or more pendings throughout the summer.
All of this adjustment firmly points to the federal tax credit for first-time home buyers that was in full swing both at this time last year and during the winter and spring months of this year. We have returned to a world void of juicy government incentives.
The number of homes for sale has grown to 27,271, up 8.6 percent from the prior year. Increased supply plus declining demand has caused the Supply-Demand Ratio to grow 56 percent in one year\'s time. This boils down to greater opportunity for buyers and increased challenges for sellers. You\'re probably used to hearing that by now. We\'re certainly used to saying it.
E-Updates_Apr12—Indian & Global Economic IndicatorsEcofin Surge
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
Tourism's economic importance to the Transylvania Co. & Brevard North Carolina's economy. Tourist spending, jobs & taxes generated. Includes counties in Western North Carolina. Presentation to Transylvania Co. Brevard Chamber of Commerce and Brevard College.
Even with temperatures cooling, the Twin Cities housing market remained in its summer swelter of a holding pattern for the week ending August 28. Signed purchase agreements topped off at 636, continuing a sub-700 trend that has gone on for 15 weeks in a row. Prior to that, we had 15 weeks in a row of 700 or more pending sales per week.
Think about that for a minute. There were more pending sales in the metro during the first full week of February than in the last full week of August. And last year at this time, we were consistently hitting 1,000 or more pendings throughout the summer.
All of this adjustment firmly points to the federal tax credit for first-time home buyers that was in full swing both at this time last year and during the winter and spring months of this year. We have returned to a world void of juicy government incentives.
The number of homes for sale has grown to 27,271, up 8.6 percent from the prior year. Increased supply plus declining demand has caused the Supply-Demand Ratio to grow 56 percent in one year\'s time. This boils down to greater opportunity for buyers and increased challenges for sellers. You\'re probably used to hearing that by now. We\'re certainly used to saying it.
E-Updates_Apr12—Indian & Global Economic IndicatorsEcofin Surge
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
Courtesy of Linda & Carlos Debello This is the Annual National Property Market Report for your perusal, information & feedback. Looking forward to hearing from you.
Best regards,
Phone: (07) 3263 6085
Fax: (07) 3263 5985
Mob: 0400 833 800
Mob2: 0409 995 578
info@ljgrealestate.com.au
LJGillandRealEstatePtyLtd
http://www.ljgrealestate.com.au/index.php?lan=ch
Chris Caton, Chief Economist at BT Financial Group, presented his economic preview for AIM NSW & ACT this week. "Share markets are still slightly cheap" is just one of the key findings. Read more in the attached slide show.
Economic and Real Estate Market Update from National Association of REALTORSBrian Block
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS gave this presentation at the REALTORS Mid-Year Meeting in Washington D.C. It provides and outlook for the economy and the real estate market.
Sample Copy of monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global. It reaches the subscribers’ inbox on the 9th of each month.
monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
Eupdts March11-Indian & Global Economic IndicatorsEcofin Surge
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global
Australia's home prices likely rose at a slightly faster pace in August (+1%) compared with July (+0.8%), based on CoreLogic's daily 5 capital city index. Brisbane (inc Gold Coast) prices are up 1.4% with Sydney and Adelaide prices both 1.1% higher.
Adelaide and Perth are the only capital cities at new highs, Brisbane is still below it's high in March 2022 based on this data (which includes the Gold Coast), though on the ground in Brisbane we are seeing data points of new all time highs in our target areas.
CoreLogic Research Director, Tim Lawless, noted the most
substantial reduction in growth has occurred in Sydney.
“After leading the upswing, the monthly pace of growth in Sydney
housing values has halved from a recent high of 1.8% in May to 0.9%
in July. Sydney has also seen a significant rise in the number of
fresh listings added to the market, 9.9% higher than the same time
last year and 18.0% above the previous five-year average. An
increased flow of new listings provides more choice and may be
working to reduce some of the urgency felt among prospective
buyers,” he said.
Brisbane and Adelaide saw the monthly pace of growth
accelerate in July, leading the pace of gains across the capitals
with housing values up 1.4% across both cities. Although the trend
in new listings has risen in these cities, Mr Lawless said the number
remains well below levels from a year ago and the previous five
year average.
Canberra was the only capital city to record a decline in values in
July, down -0.1%, while Hobart values were unchanged.
The slowdown in value growth has mostly been driven by an
easing in gains across the upper quartile of the market.
Brisbane (1.4%)
CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) has recorded a third consecutive monthly rise, with the pace of growth accelerating sharply to 1.2% in May.
After finding a floor in February, home values increased 0.6% and 0.5% through March and April respectively.
Sydney continues to lead the recovery trend, posting a 1.8% lift in values over the month, recording the city’s highest monthly gain since September 2021. Since moving through a trough in January, home values have risen by 4.8%, or the equivalent of a $48,390 lift in the median dwelling value.
Brisbane (1.4%) and Perth (1.3%) are the only other capitals to record a monthly gain of more than 1.0%, however, the rise in values was broad-based with the rate of growth accelerating across every capital city last month.
CoreLogic’s Research Director, Tim Lawless, noted the positive trend is a symptom of persistently low levels of available housing supply running up against rising housing demand.
“Advertised listings trended lower through May with roughly 1,800 fewer capital city homes advertised for sale relative to the end of April. Inventory levels are -15.3% lower than they were at the same time last year and -24.4% below the previous five-year average for this time of year,” he said.
“With such a short supply of available housing stock, buyers are becoming more competitive and there’s an element of FOMO creeping into the market. Amid increased competition, auction clearance rates have trended higher, holding at 70% or above over the past three weeks. For private treaty sales, homes are selling faster and with less vendor discounting.”
The trend in regional housing values has also picked up, with the combined regionals index rising half a percent in April, following a 0.2% and 0.1% rise in March and April.
“Although regional home values are trending higher, the rate of gain hasn’t kept pace with the capitals. Over the past three months, growth in the combined capitals index was more than triple the pace of growth seen across the combined regionals at 2.8% and 0.8% respectively,” Mr Lawless said.
“Although advertised housing supply remains tight across regional Australia, demand from net overseas migration is less substantial. ABS data points to around 15% of Australia’s net overseas migration being centered in the regions each year. Additionally, a slowdown in internal migration rates across the regions has helped to ease the demand side pressures on housing.”
Premium housing markets in Sydney continue to lead the recovery trend. After recording a larger drop in values, Sydney’s upper quartile (the most expensive quarter) stands out with the highest rate of growth, gaining 5.6% over the past three months compared with a 2.6% rise in more affordable lower quartile values.
“Buyers targeting the premium sector of the market are still buying at well below peak prices,” Mr Lawless said.
“Although values across more expensive homes are rising more rapidly, ......
January marked a new record for how much and how fast dwelling
values have fallen in Australia. Based on the monthly index, the
national HVI is down -8.9% since peaking in April last year, making this
the largest and fastest decline in values since at least 1980 when
CoreLogic’s records began.
So far, Brisbane (-10.8%*
) and Hobart (-10.8%) have registered the
largest declines on record for those cities. Sydney home values are down
-13.8% and not far from surpassing the 2017-19 drop of -14.9% to set a
new decline record.
The third edition of the CoreLogic
Women and Property report provides
an update to the state of home
ownership for men and women across
Australia and New Zealand as of
January 2023.
Best Regards,
Linda 姬琳达珍 and Carlos Debello (LREA)
LJ Gilland Real Estate Pty Ltd
Debello LREA推荐书LJ Gilland房地产
http://ljgrealestate.com.au/testimonials/
Via Corelogic RPData
2022 was a tumultuous year for Australia’s housing market.
Following outstanding capital growth over 2021 and into early 2022, successive interest rate rises, surging inflation, low consumer sentiment and deteriorating affordability drove a shift in the performance of residential real estate.
Today, we released our annual Best of the Best report; a seminal publication which sums up the country’s annual property performance and provides an outlook for the year ahead.
The national monthly increase of 1.3% is the slowest rate of growth since January 2021 when values rose 0.9%. The annual increase of 22.2% has added approximately $126,700 to the median value of an Australian home in the last 12 months.
Beyond the headline figure, capital city and regional home values are diversifying as stock levels rise and affordability decreases. Houses continue to outperform units, regional markets and rental growth remain strong and a rise in listings is contributing to a subtle softening in vendor metrics such as days on market and auction clearance rates.
Will it be a hot, warm or cool summer for the market?
Foreign nationals bought up more than $55.8 billion worth of Australian property during the last financial year, down 33% as the pandemic shut the country’s borders.
The Foreign Investment Board’s annual report shows property approvals were down again, having almost halved in the space of just four years.
The report shows Chinese investment was up 16% over the same period, while Queensland is quickly becoming a “top destination” for foreign investment.
According to a variety of reported opinions, it’s Brisbane’s time to shine. The city has seen a stop- start-stagnate property market for close to a decade, with myriad factors (floods, unit oversupply, high unemployment, global pandemic) keeping our values
Australian housing values finished the year 3.0% higher according to data released by @corelogicau today. The growth rate for regional housing values (+6.9%) was more than three times higher than the pace of growth across the capital cities (+2.0%)
Our Sunshine State capital is looking even brighter as at the time of writing. While we’ve had our challenges during COVID-19 (particularly in recent weeks when a few dubious border crossings have left our population holding its collective breath……………
“The blowout in rental vacancy rates for the major CBDs suggests a mass exodus of tenants occurred over the course of March and April. This might be attributed to the significant loss in employment in our CBDs plus the drop off in international students,” he said.
Brisbane and Adelaide both saw their CBD vacancy rate double as well, albeit from smaller bases, jumping to 11.3% and 6.6% apiece.
Looking at the capital city markets as a whole, Darwin proved the only exception to rising rates across the board.
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said, “Although housing values were generally slightly positive over the month, the trend has clearly weakened since mid-to-late March, when social distancing policies were implemented and consumer sentiment started to plummet.”
The capital city markets generally showed a weaker performance relative to the regional markets, with the combined capital cities index up 0.2% in April compared with a 0.5% rise across the combined regional markets.
View the COVID-19 V Australian Property Report here. At a Glance:
Even with the impact of COVID-19, the experts most commonly believe in 12 months prices will be higher than they are now (27 percent of respondents).
Overwhelmingly, (72 percent) of respondents, felt that NSW would be the hardest hit.
Short Term residential rental properties, like AIRBNB and holiday homes, are in the firing line, whilst high cashflow and diversified rooming houses on fixed-term leases are highlighted as the most resilient.
Respondents said the peak COVID-19 impact would be felt between the 3 to 12-month mark from mid-March 2020
Valuing experts explore what buyers are looking for in each housing market. This is especially useful knowledge as the market establishes its direction for 2020.
Dwelling values rose by 1.1% over the month of December and by 4.0% over the quarter to finish out 2019 on a positive note according to the CoreLogic national home value index. This result represents the fastest rate of national dwelling value growth over any three month period since November 2009. Darwin was the only region amongst the capital cities and ‘rest-of-state’ areas to record a fall in values over the month, with a -0.5% decline
The CoreLogic Home Value Index results for October out today confirm a 1.2% rise in national dwelling values over the month, delivering the fourth straight month of rising values.
The October result was the largest month-on-month gain in the national index since May 2015. The recent gains come after a broad-based decline in housing values, with the national index declining 8.4% between October 2017 and June 2019. The positive October result takes national dwelling values 2.9% off their June 2019 floor, however values remain 5.7% below their peak, highlighting that despite the recent gains, home values are at a similar level to where they were three years ago.
According to CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless, the stronger rebound in Melbourne and Sydney can be attributed to a blend of factors; tighter labour market conditions and stronger population growth relative to the other capitals, coupled with the stimulatory effect of the lowest mortgage rates since the 1950’s, and improved access to credit.
4. To date, HH debt reduction has been limited
$trn $trn
15 15
Other* Sources: Federal Reserve, Westpac Economics
Households
12 Nonfarm nonfinancial firms 12
Government
9 Rest of World 9
*nonfinancial noncorporate and farm
6 6
3 3
March „08
0 0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
4
5. House prices have declined for 5 months
Index S&P Case-Shiller index Index
240 240
Source: Factset
20-city index
220 220
10-city index
200 200
180 180
160 160
140 140
Prices have fallen 4.3% in five months
120 to Dec ‟10 and are 31% from peak.
120
100 100
Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10
5
6. Contributions to real GDP growth
ppt cont.
15
2.5
2.0
10 2.6
0.8
0.8
6.1 8.7 0.8 0.8
5.6 1.0
5.0
4.4 4.6 5.6
4.6 4.0
3.3
5 1.4
1.5
1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2
1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0
3.7 4.1 3.4
3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2
0
Net exports
-3.7 Gross investment
Sources: CEIC, Westpac. Public consumption
Contribution to full year growth. Private consumption
-5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
6
7. A pending overhang of property
index index
250 250
Sources: CEIC, Westpac. Aug-2006 = 100.
Underlying data in sqm.
200 Completions 200
Sales
Starts
150 150
100 100
50 50
Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10
7
13. Mortgage rate expectations by state
net% net%
100 100
Feb-10
% reporting expected
95 Jun-10 rise minus % reporting 95
Aug-10 expected fall
90 Feb-11 90
85 85
80 80
75 75
70 70
Aus NSW VIC QLD SA WA
13
14. Pace of employment growth to slow in 2011H1
%yr `000
300
4 Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics 6mth change (rhs)
% yr (lhs) 250
3 200
2 150
100
1
50
0
0
-1 -50
Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11
14
15. Current account balance
% GDP Rolling annual % GDP
3 Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
3
0 0
-3 -3
-6 -6
Trade balance Income position f/c to
Current account end-2012
-9 -9
Sep-85 Sep-90 Sep-95 Sep-00 Sep-05 Sep-10
15
16. Net public debt: G7 chalk, Australian cheese
%GDP %GDP
100 100
Sources: Westpac, IMF, Australian Treasury.
90 90
80 1990 2000 80
70 70
60 2009 2015 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
US UK Germany France Canada Australia
16
17. The Australian dollar: actual versus fitted
USD USD
1.10 1.10
Fair value band
1.00 AUD/USD actual 1.00
AUD/USD forecast
0.90 0.90
0.80 0.80
0.70 0.70
0.60 0.60
0.50 0.50
Sources: RBA, Westpac Economics
0.40 0.40
Jan-91 Jan-95 Jan-99 Jan-03 Jan-07 Jan-11
17
18. Qld: lagging – for now
% ann Domestic demand growth, by state
5
4.3
Dec-09 yr Dec-10 yr
4
3.2 3.4
3.1
3 2.7
2.9 2.82.9 2.7
2.2 2.1
2 1.5
1
0
-1
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
-1.4 -1.3
-2
Qld NSW Aus SA Vic WA Tas
18
19. Output effects from the Floods and Cyclones
Activity loss
March quarter: Coal: $2.2bn
Farm: $2.5bn
Tourism: $300m
Other: $500m
June/September: $1.5bn (coal/tourism)
Rebuilding
Government: Commonwealth: $5.6bn
States: $1bn
Private: Housing: $2.5bn
19
22. CAPEX plans by industry
% chg, yr avg % chg, yr avg
80 Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
80
mining History in real terms,
60 60
manufacturing Expectations in nominal
services
40 40
total
20 20
0 0
5th est. 1st est.
financial years
-20 -20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f
22
23. Mining investment boom ... Coming to Qld
Business investment : share of GSP
% of GSP % of GSP
35 35
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
30 30
SA Qld WA
25 25
NSW Vic Tas
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
Dec-89 Dec-97 Dec-05 Dec-89 Dec-97 Dec-05
23
24. Firms: hiring ... under investing
% ann % ann
6 Sources: ABS; Westpac Economics * smoothed
30
Jobs (lhs)
Equipment * (rhs)
25
4 20
15
2 10
5
0 0
Consumer recession
-5
-2 Asian crisis in NSW & Vic -10
AUD “collapse” Deleveraging -15
-4 -20
Dec-80 Dec-85 Dec-90 Dec-95 Dec-00 Dec-05 Dec-10
24
25. Household savings ratio-cyclical high
% income % income
25 25
20 post 2006 avg doubled 20
equates to ~$122bn
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
Sources: ABS, Factset, Westpac Economics
-5 -5
Sep-59 Sep-69 Sep-79 Sep-89 Sep-99 Sep-09
25
34. Price-income ratios: various measures
times times
10 10
house price to state median income June 2008
9 house price to capital city median income 9
8 all dwelling price to capital city median income 8
unit price to capital city median income
7 units Source: APM, RP Data-Residex, ABS, Westpac 7
%total
6 stock: 6
22%
38% 28% 24%
5 21% 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth
34
36. ‘Time to buy a dwelling’ by state
index index
180 180
*smoothed NSW Vic Qld WA
160 160
140 140
120 120
100 100
80 80
60 60
Source: Melbourne Institute, Westpac Economics
40 40
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11
36
37. Population vs dwelling stock
thousands thousands
500 500
population
450 Source: ABS, Westpac 450
dwelling completions
400 400
dwelling stock*
350 annual average change
350
300 * net of demolitions – implied by Census 300
data to 2006; Westpac estimates thereafter
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s last 3
years
37
38. Population vs dwelling stock: Qld
thousands thousands
140 140
population Source: ABS, Westpac
120 dwelling completions 120
dwelling stock*
100 100
annual average change
* net of demolitions – implied by Census data
80 to 2006; Westpac estimates thereafter 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s last 3
years
38
39. Population growth: sharp slowdown
% ann % ann
3.5 3.5
3.0 Qld (lhs) Aust (rhs) 3.0
2.5 2.5
2.0 2.0
1.5 1.5
1.0 1.0
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
0.5 0.5
Jun-82 Jun-90 Jun-98 Jun-06
39
40. Population growth in perspective
ann% ann%
3.5 3.5
population
3.0 contribution from net migration 3.0
2.5 contribution from natural increase 2.5
2.0 2.0
1.5 1.5
1.0 1.0
0.5 0.5
0.0 0.0
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
-0.5 -0.5
1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006
40
41. Migrant inflows vs student visas
thousands thousands
600 600
student visas granted migrant arrivals
67k
500 *financial years 500
drop
400 400
300 50k 300
Source: ABS, Dept of Immigration and drop
Citizenship, Westpac Economics
200 200
100 100
0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
41
42. Australian bank funding sources
% %
50 50
Sources: RBA, APRA, ABS, Westpac.
40 40
Domestic deposits
Short term debt
Long term debt
30 30
20 20
10 10
Jun-02 Jun-04 Jun-06 Jun-08 Jun-10
42
43. Major Banks’ Bond Issuance
$bn AUD equivalent $bn
60 60
Onshore* Offshore* Maturities Net issuance
Source: RBA
40 40
20 20
0 0
-20 -20
* Latest quarter issuance to date
-40 -40
Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12
43
44. Westpac business lending by sector
6.1 4.6 Property
9
Agriculture
Accom, Restaurant
7.2
27.9 Manufacturing
6.2 Retail
Wholesale trade
7.6 Transport
Other
31.4 Sources: Westpac.
44
45. Total dwelling approvals – Victoria rules!
index index
200 200
Vic (36%) WA (13%)
180 180
Qld (17%) NSW (19%)
160 smoothed, Sep 2005 = 100 160
figures in brackets show %total
140 140
120 120
100 100
80 80
60 Sources: ABS, Westpac
60
40 40
Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10
45
46. Unit approvals- Victoria overheated?
index index
500 500
450 Vic (36%) WA (5%) 450
400 Qld (13%) NSW (20%) 400
smoothed, Jan 2006 = 100
350 figures in brackets show %total
350
300 300
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 Sources: ABS, Westpac
50
0 0
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
46
51. Non res showing no recovery
AUDbn/mth AUDbn/mth
3.0 3.0
units (surpassed prev peak, now 11% lower)
2.5 non res (still 41% below pre-crisis peak)* 2.5
Private dwelling approvals,
2.0 trend, nominal
2.0
* excluding education
1.5 1.5
1.0 1.0
0.5 0.5
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
0.0 0.0
Apr-87 Apr-91 Apr-95 Apr-99 Apr-03 Apr-07 Apr-11
51
52. Brisbane office market – also a constraint
... as supply continues
‟000 sqr meters %
250 20
Westpac Property
Net absorption Net supply forecasts to 2012
200 Vacancy rate 16
Vacancy rate
150 11.3% 2009 12
13.0% 2011
100 8
50 4
0 0
Sources: PCA, Westpac Property
-50 -4
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
52
53. Key points Disclaimer
• The two key challenges for the industry are interest rates and
credit availability – both are of equal concern to industry participants.
• The interest rate outlook will be affected by the global growth
outlook; the sustainability of the mining boom and prospects for
the cautious consumer.
• US growth prospects are less than robust; China is tightening
policy and Europe‟s problems are structural.
• Australian consumers are cautious and look to stay that way with
house prices under pressure and housing affordability stretched.
• Any easing in consumer caution is likely to lead to higher rates since
the mining boom will continue unabated.
• The mining boom is set to strengthen further maintaining
pressure on rates through 2012 – QLD will benefit from this.
• The Australian dollar will be resilient to increasing global risk
although it should weaken somewhat in 2012.
53
54. Key points Disclaimer
• The key to Australia‟s world class house prices has been the
increasing imbalance between new supply and population growth
although there is clear oversupply in places like the Gold Coast.
• Population growth has slowed sharply particularly in QLD taking
some pressure off underlying demand.
• New funding pressures have eased for the major banks as they
take advantage of the rising savings rate to fund books through
retail deposits – although maturities remain a challenge.
• Foreign banks and securitisers have lost considerable ground to
the majors who now dominate new lending QLD‟s reliance on
regional banks has been a weakness for the state.
• There is clear evidence that approvals and lending for developments
is slowly improving although Victoria is dominating activity.
54
55. Key points Disclaimer
• There is a clear diversity in terms of approvals across the states
with Victoria showing signs of being overheated while QLD is
lagging.
• Property dominates banks‟ loan books although approvals for
non residential have not recovered since the GFC while
apartments are showing upward momentum.
• While there is some improvement in residential prospects for non
residential particularly in Brisbane/Gold Coast are not sound.
• The stability and improvement in the housing industry is likely to
need to await rate cuts which should begin in 2013 following
another “round” of rate hikes in 2012.
55