2011 Orange County Development Briefing
The Orange County Development Briefing from September 20, 2011, presented updates on residential and commercial real estate markets, indicating fluctuations in sales, inventory, and days on the market, with some positive trends noted in the latter part of the year. The retail market exhibited an overall vacancy rate of 8.31%, with various developments and projects ongoing in the area, including potential grocery and retail spaces. Several new construction projects and research developments were also highlighted, signifying ongoing growth and investment in Orange County.
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2011 Orange County Development Briefing
- 1. Orange County Development Briefing Tuesday, September 20 Friday Center
- 2. WELCOME AaronNelson President and CEO
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- 6. 2011 Annual CommunityChampions
- 7. 2011 Annual PlatinumSponsors
- 8. 2011 Annual GoldSponsors
- 9. 2011 Annual GoldSponsors
- 10. Special Thanks toOur Newest Annual Gold Sponsor
- 11. Welcome from PresentingSponsor Justin Lyle-Purdy
- 12. Residential Development Update Mark Zimmerman RE/MAX Winning Edge
- 13. Orange County Development Briefing The Residential Real Estate Market September 20, 2011 Mark Zimmerman All data provided by Triangle Multiple Listing Service and 10K Research and Marketing
- 16. Remember the TaxCredits • Extended through June, 2010 • Affected full market – 1st time home buyers – Repeat home buyers • Market was artificially stimulated – 3rd Qtr transactions shifted to 2nd Qtr • 2010 Market Dislocated – 1st Half Overstated – 2nd Half Suffered
- 18. 2011 – It’sall Relative • 1st Half – (YTD June, 2011) – Triangle • Sales down -17.3% • 125 Days on Market (vs 102 YA +23.1%) • Inventory down -13.0% • Months Supply growing 11.4 (vs 10.2 +11.6%) – Orange County • Sales down -2.6% • 124 Days on Market (vs 99 YA +25.4%) • Inventory down -7.7% • Months Supply up a bit 12.4 (vs 12.1 YA +2.4%)
- 19. What’s Happening SinceThen? • Triangle – Sales • July +7.5%, August +22.9% – Days on Market • July 130 (vs 103 +25.8%), Aug 126 (vs 110 +15.0%) – Inventory -19.2% • Months Supply July 11.0, August 10.3 (-4.4% YA) • Orange County – Sales • July -6.3%, August +3.7% – Days on Market • July 125 (vs 117 +6.6%), Aug 122 (vs 129 -5.4%) – Inventory -16.8% • Months Supply July 11.8, August 10.6 (-10.7% YA)
- 20. Year Will SlowlyGet Better • YTD through August – Triangle • Sales -10.1% – Orange County • Sales -2.3%
- 22. Urban Orange • Hillsborough – Sales • July -37.9%, August +46.7% • YTD -4.4% – 118 Days on Market (vs 87 YA +35.7%) – Inventory -8.1% • Chapel Hill/Carrboro – Sales • July +2.6%, August -8.3% • YTD -2.5% – 136 Days on Market (vs 133 YA +2.0%) – Inventory -15.5%
- 23. Orange County –Aug, 2011 Price Listings % Chg v YTD Sales % Chg v Month Ave DOM YA YA Supply 0-149 84 +9% 97 +29.3% 7 116 150-199 72 -4% 70 +34.6% 8 123 200-299 148 -8% 147 -9.3% 8 125 300-399 97 -29% 130 +4.0% 6 145 400-599 142 -10% 136 +11.5% 8 116 600-799 68 -8% 48 -7.7% 11 109 800+ 73 -14% 36 +38.5% 16 118 Total Detached 686 -10% 664 +8.0% 8 Condo 153 -21% 71 -39.3% 17 136 Townhouse 96 -11% 95 -14.4% 8 122 Total 935 -13% 830 -1.4% 9 125
- 24. New Construction • Triangle– 2nd Qtr – Sales down -27% vs YA – Inventory down -24% vs YA – List price down -5% vs YA – Supply down to 5 months (same as YA) • Framed new homes 4 month supply – Pendings down -8% vs YA – Showings down -9% vs 1st Qtr
- 25. New Construction –2nd Qtr Orange County Price Listings % Chg v YA YTD Sales % Chg v YA Supply 0-149 2 n/a 2 n/a 6 150-199 6 -40% 13 +63% 3 200-299 10 -23% 2 -60% 30 300-399 18 +50% 13 +44% 8 400-599 23 +77% 8 -20% 17 600-799 6 -14% 3 -25% 12 800+ 10 -33% 2 +100% 30 Total Detached 75 -7% 43 +10% 10 Condo 52 -33% 3 -77% 104 Townhouse 10 -58% 26 +24% 2 Total 137 -20% 72 -1% 11
- 26. Summary • 1st Half – Tax Credit Relativity • 3rd Quarter – Positive Trend off low base • 4th Qtr & Beyond – ?????
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- 29. Commercial Development Update Dwight Bassett Economic Development Officer Town of Chapel Hill
- 30. Development Update Retail, Officeand Flex Space in Orange County
- 31. Date Center opened Leasable Vacant Rate Glen Lennox DNR 26,032 0 0.00% The Galleria NA 35,000 0 0.00% University Square 1969 39,868 0 0.00% North Hill Ctr 1963 46,000 4,953 10.77% East 54 2009 52,575 9,819 18.68% Orange Glenwood Square Willow Creek Village Plaza 1987 1983 1974 53,000 57,616 63,327 2,660 8,200 0 0.00% 4.62% 12.95% County Churton Grove Cole Park Plaza Carr Mill Mall 2003 1988 1977 65,225 82,258 88,000 10,000 21,973 3,250 15.33% 26.71% 3.69% Retail Chapel Hill North Chatham Crossing 1998 1998 93,266 95,933 5,246 9,700 5.62% 10.11% Meadowmont 2001 96,740 7,571 7.83% Space Hillsborough Commons 1989 107,000 35,000 32.71% Timberlyne 1984 112,925 0 0.00% Ram's Plaza 1982 113,557 6,563 5.78% Carrboro Plaza 1985 125,000 0 0.00% Eastgate 1958 155,442 0 0.00% University Mall 1973 366,173 41,680 11.38% TOTAL 1,874,937 166,615 8.31%
- 32. Retail Chapel Hill/Orange County 80,000 12.00% 60,000 10.00% 40,000 8.00% 20,000 0 6.00% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1Q2011 -20,000 4.00% -40,000 2.00% -60,000 -80,000 0.00% Absorption Vacancy Data courtesy of Grubb & Ellis | Thomas Linderman Graham
- 33. Orange County RetailVacancy 8.31% 32.71% 26.71% 18.68% 15.33% 12.95% 11.38% 10.77% 10.11% 7.83% 5.78% 5.62% 4.62% 3.69% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
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- 35. Class Name Total Vacant % A East 54 113,000 43,154 38.19% A Exchange East 60,000 16,258 27.10% A The Exchange 135,000 2,685 1.99% A Meadowmont Village I 73,095 2,044 2.80% A Meadowmont Village II 35,471 4,932 13.90% A A A A Chapel Hill 40 - Boyd Chapel Hill 40 - Dawson Europa Center Franklin Park 50,518 70,516 180,000 57,000 20,057 39.70% 52,348 74.24% 50,718 28.18% 14,793 25.95% Office Market A Southern Village - 400 Mkt 20,000 0 0.00% A Southern Village - 410 Mkt 48,000 0 0.00% A Pavillion II 25,842 14,360 55.57% A Southern Village - 300 Mkt 44,500 2,200 4.94% A Pavillion I 26,076 1,599 6.13% A Castalia 47,920 1,100 2.30% A Greenbridge 36,000 24,562 68.23% A 201 Sage Rd 37,000 0 0.00% B 109/111 E Franklin 10,846 2,500 23.05% B Pegasus Office 12,500 0 0.00% B Forum 1 16,800 7,600 45.24% B Howell Bldg 10,800 0 0.00% B BOA Bldg 100,866 13,121 13.01% B 151 E Rosemary 14,000 0 0.00% B 605 Eastowne Dr 11,167 1,311 11.74% B Chapel Hill 40 - McClamroch 43,841 0 0.00% B East Ridge Offices 14,300 12,182 85.19% B University Square 73,522 0 0.00% B Carr Mill 55,000 6,884 12.52% B 400 Roberson St 18,000 0 0.00% B Chapel Hill Professional Village 29,500 7,184 24.35% B Eastowne Office Pk 12,195 1,002 8.22% Office Space 2nd qtr 2011 - Orange County Total Vacant % 1,483,275 302,594 20.40%
- 36. Office Market 200,000 25.00% 150,000 20.00% 100,000 15.00% 50,000 10.00% 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1Q2011 5.00% -50,000 -100,000 0.00% Absorption Vacancy* Data courtesy of Grubb & Ellis | Thomas Linderman Graham
- 37. Office Market 1,494,859 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 306,347 400,000 200,000 20.49% 0 Total Vacant % Office Space 2nd qtr 2011 - Orange County
- 38. Orange County FlexSpace Building Rentable SF Vacant SF Vacant % Chapel Hill Industrial 22,727 11,364 50.00% Chapel Hill Industrial, Bldg 1 22,000 11,000 50.00% Hillsborough Business Ctr 266,000 5,704 2.14% The Harris Bldg 21,000 0 0.00% 505 Meadowlands Dr 15,600 9,600 61.54% 515 Meadowlands Dr 12,000 2,000 16.67% 600-610 Cornerstone Ct 24,000 0 0.00% TOTAL 383,327 39,668 25.76%
- 39. Orange County FlexSpace Flex Space - Orange County % Vacant 600-610… 0% 515 Meadowlands Dr 17% 505 Meadowlands Dr 62% The Harris Bldg 0% Hillsborough… 2% Chapel Hill… 50% Chapel Hill Industrial 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
- 40. Orange County -Warehouse Leasable Building SF Vacant SF A Southern Season 80,000 0 532 Three Sisters Road 10,500 0 E. Washington - Mebane 383,000 0 343 Elizabeth Brady 16,200 0 TOTAL 489,700
- 41. Orange County -Warehouse TOTAL 489,700 343 Elizabeth Brady 16,200 E. Washington - Mebane 383,000 532 Three Sisters Road 10,500 A Southern Season 80,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 Vacant Leasable SF
- 42. Orange County –All Sectors Leasable Square Feet Retail Office A 1,059,938 Office B 459,019 Office Office Total 1,518,957 Flex 383,327 Flex Warehouse 489,700 Retail 1,874,937 Warehouse
- 43. Orange County –All Sectors Leasable Square Feet Retail 1,874,937 Warehouse 489,700 Flex 383,327 Office Total 1,518,957 Office B 459,019 Office A 1,059,938 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000
- 44. Orange County –All Sectors Vacancy by Sector Retail 8% Warehouse 0% Flex 26% Office Total 19% Office - Class A 23% Office -Class B 16% Vacancy - Flex Space 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
- 45. The Edge John Morris Morris Commercial
- 48. Obey Creek Ben Perry East West Partners
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- 52. Lloyd Property Jack Smyre The Design Response
- 53. Vicinity Map Site *
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- 57. “Available Commercial Projects and Redevelopment Opportunities” Excerpt from: Creating Carrboro’s Economic Future by Regional Technology Strategies, Inc. September 2006
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- 59. B-4 Zoning District Excerptfrom: Town of Carrboro - Land Use Ordinance Article IX Zoning District and Zoning Map
- 60. Argus Development Group RepresentativeProject Elements
- 61. Argus Development Group RepresentativeProject Elements
- 62. Existing Conditions • Existing Zoning- B-4 16.62 AC R-10 22.51 AC R-20 0.95 AC • Total 40.08 AC • Two (2) Single- Family Detached Residences • Detached Garages & Storage Buildings • Cow Pasture • Two Driveways on Old Fayetteville Rd.
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- 64. Photos of Site Tree Stand Behind Main House Tree Stand in Front of Main House Hardwood Stand Old Fayetteville Road at Pond Hardwood Stand South of Power Station
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- 66. Development / PreservationRatio • Approximately 24 acres (60%) developed • Approximately 16 acres (40%) preserved
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- 70. Development Program ● Grocerystore anchored (50-55,000 SF) ● Junior anchors (6-30,000 SF each) ● Minor retail/office space (25-30,000 SF) ● Outparcels (restaurants / pharmacy / etc.) 175,000 +/- SF of retail/office space total (plus <10,000 SF of R-10 non-residential space)
- 71. Implementation of theConcept Plan Zoning Map Amendment (R-10 to B-4-CU) for a portion of the site & Conditional Use Permit
- 72. Carrboro Plaza &Lloyd Property
- 73. Carolina North and 123 W. Franklin Gordon Merklein University of North Carolina
- 74. Carolina North and 123 West Franklin Update
- 75. Carolina North –Research Building Proposed Research Building site
- 76. Carolina North –Research Building
- 77. 123 West FranklinProject Update • Design Process – First public input session – October 2009 • Concept Plan Review – Community Design Commission – October 2010 – Town Council – November 2010 • Special Use Permit – Formal SUP submittal on 08-16-2011 – SUP Public Meeting on 09-08-2011 – SUP Town Staff meeting on 09-22-2011 • Groundbreaking – Spring 2013?
- 78. 123 West FranklinProject Update
- 79. 123 West FranklinProject Update
- 80. 123 West FranklinProject Update
- 81. 123 West FranklinProject Update
- 82. 123 West FranklinProject Update 82
- 83. 123 West FranklinProject Update 83
- 84. UNC Healthway Dan Stevens UNC Health Care
- 85. The UNC Healthway Dan Stevens DMD, PhD, MBA Marketing Director UNC Health Care dpsteven@unch.unc.edu; 919-843-2462 85
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- 87. UNC Health Care ASubstantial Economic Impact for North Carolina Estimated Economic Impact UNC Health Care and SOM: ~$5B (direct and indirect annual impact) Direct Jobs UNC SOM Est. $600M Annual ~$230M annual Economic Impact Operating revenue (non-research) UNC SOM ~ $2 Billion in Services to Patients ~$400M annual Research Spend Uncompensated Care ~$320M Annual Funding Medical Foundation AHEC ~$70M Annual Inflows ~$45M Annual Funding
- 88. UNC Health Care County-by-county Economic Impact www.unchealthcare.org About Us UNC Health Care’s Impact Across North Carolina
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- 90. Redistribution of ClinicalSites • Goal: Decompress campus-based hospitals • Find and relocate services that do not need hospital environment • Benefits • Creates room in hospitals for other functions • Increase eases of access for patients
- 91. Introduction of theUNC Healthway • Significant clinical services on route 54 and beyond • Build awareness • Breadth of services • Easy access
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- 95. Infrastructure: Water Ed Kerwin Orange Water and Sewer Authority
- 96. Orange County DevelopmentBriefing September 20, 2011 Orange Water and Sewer Authority A public, non-profit agency providing water, sewer and reclaimed water services to the Carrboro-Chapel Hill community.
- 97. Service area boundaries definedby local governments Public water/sewer not to be extended into rural buffer
- 98. Water Supply University Lake Cane Creek Quarry Reservoir Jordan Lake Jones Ferry Road Water Treatment Plant Wastewater Management Mason Farm Wastewater Treatment Plant Reclaimed Water Facility
- 99. Reliable Water Supply Effective conservation – UNC’s use of reclaimed water Multiple reservoirs – Jordan Lake is an essential back up Drinking water interconnections with neighbors Available capacity at water treatment plant
- 100. Reliable Infrastructure Infrastructureis in good shape, have plans to keep it that way $10-13 million annual investment to renew/ replace infrastructure Replace about 3 miles of water pipe per year 40 Replace/renovate about 35 CIP 1998-2026 30 25 2 miles of sewer pipe $M 20 15 10 per year 5 0
- 101. Service Availability (Capacity)Fees* (October 2011) Type Water Sewer Total Single family home $1,895 $3,499 $5,394 (1,701-2,400 ft2) 1” meter non-residential $8,973 $15,303 $24,276 1 ½” meter non-residential $17,945 $30,605 $48,550 2” meter non-residential $28, 712 $48,968 $77,680 3” meter non-residential $57,424 $97,936 $155,360 * does not include installation charge
- 102. www.owasa.org 919-968-4421 Todd Spencer, P.E. Systems Development Engineering Manager tspencer@owasa.org 919-537-4244
- 103. Infrastructure: Cell Service Rajeev Sood AT&T
- 104. Carolinas Wireless Network 1Q 2011 Update AT&T Proprietary and Confidential. Not for use or disclosure outside the AT&T companies except under written agreement. All future activity depicted in this presentation is being provided for informational purposes only and is subject to change by AT&T without further notice. This document is not an offer, commitment, representation or warranty by AT&T that the above, forward-looking activity will be undertaken by AT&T. 2011 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved. AT&T and the AT&T logo are trademarks of AT&T Intellectual Property.
- 105. AT&T Proprietary andConfidential. Not for use or disclosure outside the AT&T companies except under written agreement. All future activity depicted in this presentation is being provided for informational purposes only and is subject to change by AT&T without further notice. This document is not an offer, commitment, representation or warranty by AT&T that the above, forward-looking activity will be undertaken by AT&T. 2011 AT&T Intellectual Property. All rights reserved. AT&T and the AT&T logo are trademarks of AT&T Intellectual Property.
- 106. Coverage Map < Carolinas > Before (March 2010) After (March 2011) 2G Coverage 3G Coverage
- 107. Coverage Map < Carolinas > Before (March 2010) After (March 2011) 2G Coverage 3G Coverage
- 108. 2011 Plans Planning to build 45 new sites Expanding Mobile Broadband footprint over 489 existing 2G-only sites Adding 517 additional carriers to increase 3G capacity Adding additional RNCs of capacity for new carriers and 3G footprint growth Deploying backhaul to support faster speed 10 8
- 109. Infrastructure: Broadband Mark Eagle Time Warner Cable
- 110. Orange County DevelopmentBriefing Time Warner Services Mark Eagle Director Business Class Engineering September 20, 2011
- 111. Time Warner Network Internet Traffic Exit Point Internet Traffic Exit Point Map Key - Regional Data Center (RDC) - Key Cities around the Regional Fiber Ring - Regional ROADM Fiber Ring 111 111
- 112. Orange County ServiceArea 112
- 113. Ethernet Access Solutions( from MEF ) website Ethernet Ethernet CWDM Fiber HFC Carrier Direct Fiber Ethernet MSO SONET/ SDH Ethernet User to Network Interface (UNI) Ethernet Network to Network Interface (NNI) Ethernet EPON Ethernet Ethernet Ethernet 113
- 114. Residential Service Offeredby Time Warner 114
- 115. Business Class ServicesOffered by Time Warner Metro Ethernet Transport EPL – Ethernet Private Line EVPL – Ethernet Virtual Private Line ELAN – Ethernet Local/Wide Area Networks Dedicated Internet Access (DIA) Primary Rate Interface (PRI) PBX Phone Service Multi-Line Phone Service TDM Transport Services (T1, DS3, OCx Services) Wavelength Transport Services (2.5, 10 Gig…) Wireless Broadband Managed Security/Firewall UNI CE Managed Data Storage CE UNI Managed Networks UNI Commercial Video Transport (NTSC, ASI, SDI) CE 115
- 116. Campaign for Jobs& Schools Aaron Nelson Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber
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- 118. What is the¼ Cent Sales Tax? An effort to raise $2.5 million in revenue per year for ten years Sales Tax Revenue Capital Needs for Schools 50% 50% Economic Development
- 119. Business Collateral Collaborative Investment Materials Outreach Grants 1.5% 1.5% 8% Innovation Center 9% Agricultural Economic Development 10% Debt Service on Infrastructure 60% Small Business Loan Fund 10% Uses of Economic Development Portion
- 120. The Potential –Buckhorn EDD
- 121. The Potential –Buckhorn EDD
- 122. The Potential –Buckhorn EDD
- 123. The Potential –Buckhorn EDD
- 124. Important Dates andLocations • Early Voting Begins October 20th - Orange County Board of Elections - Carrboro Town Hall - University Square, Suite 133-G - Seymour Senior Center • Election Day: November 8th
- 125. Get Involved inthe Campaign For more Like the Campaign on information, visit Facebook: online: facebook.com/jobsandschools Follow the Campaign on Twitter: co.orange.nc.us/salestax/ twitter.com/jobsandschools
- 126. Thanks again toour sponsors.
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- 130. 2011 Annual CommunityChampions
- 131. 2011 Annual PlatinumSponsors
- 132. 2011 Annual GoldSponsors
- 133. 2011 Annual MasterGold Sponsors
Editor's Notes
- #14 I get
- #15 Typical headline.
- #16 It would take a genius to know when we are going to get out of this housing recession.
- #19 1st half downSales down in T but less in OTaking longer to sellBut, inventory is clearing out (fewer new listings)
- #20 Start of 2nd halfSales start trending upStill taking longer to sell, howeverBut inventory dropping, meaning months supply dropping
- #21 Vs +4.5%, +8.1% last year2nd half seasonally lessBut nice to have positive momentum (to enter 2012)
- #23 H 22vs 15 actual sales in August – don’t get too excited
- #24 ?% under $600last year - detached766 listings 614 Sales 10 Months supply
- #25 Should read non-construction, hardest hit sectorShortage coming
- #26 % of total listings: 15%Take out Condo/Townhouse = single family detached new construction homes Only 75 listings Only 43 sold in 1st half (7 per month) vs 39 last years (+10%) 10 month supply (versus 4 month supply for Triangle)FHA Approved Condos:
- #107 AT&T has invested substantially in the network in the past year to increase broadband coverage and network performanceIn Q1’2011 the following were accomplished:New Site Built detail:xx sites on Air3G Expansion Detail:Xx sites launched in xxx marketsxx additional UMTS expansion sites On Air2nd Carrier add detail:2nd carrier added to xxx sites throughout all xx market/submarkets3rd Carrier add detail:3rd carrier added to xxx sites in sub marketsCore: RNCsx new RNCs placed in service x additional RNCs Core: MSCsx new ATCA MSC Other: Optimization
- #108 AT&T has invested substantially in the network in the past year to increase broadband coverage and network performanceIn Q1’2011 the following were accomplished:New Site Built detail:xx sites on Air3G Expansion Detail:Xx sites launched in xxx marketsxx additional UMTS expansion sites On Air2nd Carrier add detail:2nd carrier added to xxx sites throughout all xx market/submarkets3rd Carrier add detail:3rd carrier added to xxx sites in sub marketsCore: RNCsx new RNCs placed in service x additional RNCs Core: MSCsx new ATCA MSC Other: Optimization
- #109 2011 Special projects:Focus on Venue Sites - “Coverage and Capacity”
- #112 Region Wide
- #114 PON is one of several technologies supported/promoted by Metro Ethernet ForumOur discussion will focus on Ethernet PON (EPON), it’s value. What it means to the user, what it means to the company