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Taggert J. Brooks, PhD
Professor and Chair of Economics
University ofWisconsin-La Crosse
Boom-Time Building
I am an economist.
I am not a prophet, visionary, seer, oracle or a
fortune teller.
Those folks have respectable jobs.
Non-Standard Disclaimer:
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
30-Year Conventional Mortgage
Rate
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
30-Year Conventional Mortgage
Rate
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
30-Year Conventional Mortgage
Rate
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
30-Year Conventional Mortgage
Rate
?
As weather officer in
World War II he and
his team determined
long range weather
forecasts were no
better then pulling
them out of a hat.
Ken Arrow, Nobel Laureate in Economics
“The Commanding
General is well aware
that the forecasts are
no good. However,
he needs them for
planning purposes…”
Ken Arrow, Nobel Laureate in Economics
Why are interest rates so
low?
 Low inflation and contained expectations
 Aggressive action by the Federal Reserve
(QE)
 The rest of the world is struggling, leaving
the US as a safe haven for investment.
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Fed Agency Debt Mortgage-Backed Securities
Purch
Liquidity to Key Credit Markets
Lending to Financial Institutions
Long Term Treasury Purchases
Trillions
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2008Q1 2009Q4 2011Q3 2013Q2
Change in GDP since Q1 2008
US
France
Germany
Spain
Italy
Oil Prices
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000
$1,100,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Construction Spending Millions of
Dollars
Total Public Construction Spending
Left Axis
Total Private Construction Spending
Right Axis
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Housing: Vacancy Rates for
Rental Units
1 unit
2 or more units
5 or more units
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Foreclosure Rate per 1,000 Housing Units
La Crosse
Brown
Outagamie
Winnebago
$100,000
$110,000
$120,000
$130,000
$140,000
$150,000
$160,000
2007 2011 2015
Median Home Prices: Brown
County
$100,000
$110,000
$120,000
$130,000
$140,000
$150,000
$160,000
$170,000
2007 2011 2015
Median Home Prices: Outagamie
County
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
$110,000
$120,000
$130,000
$140,000
$150,000
2007 2011 2015
Median Home Prices: Winnebago
County
$100,000
$110,000
$120,000
$130,000
$140,000
$150,000
$160,000
$170,000
2007 2011 2015
Median Home Prices: La Crosse
County
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
240.0
Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-13
Case-Shiller Index of Home Prices
Phoenix
Minneapolis
7 Rivers Region
Demographics and
Development
 Changing Age Profile (Boomer to
Millennials)
 Changing Preferences?
 Technology and Agglomeration Effects
“10,000 Baby Boomers a day will turn 65 –
every single day between now and the
year 2030.”
Paul Taylor – Author, The Next
America
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled/Population
Risks to Development
 State Budget
 People without vision. (NIMBY)
 Manufacturing Employment
 Dollar Appreciation
Fowler Lake - Oconomowoc
Thanks!
Creating SUSTAINABLE
REDEVELOPMENT and building solutions
that foster NEIGHBORHOOD REVITALIZATION.
Randy Stadtmueller, President / Principal
Renee Torzala, Vice President / Principal
1. Listen to the
Community
2. Identify the
Opportunities
3. Manage the Process
Project for Public Spaces:
Fred Kent
Up Next at 5:00 pm:
WEDC Resources in Action
DEVELOPMENT
RESOURCES IN ACTION
IN WISCONSIN
InDevelopment
March 12, 2015
ALIGNING RESOURCES WITH NEEDS
WEDC
Division of Economic
and Community
Development
Division of
Entrepreneurship and
Innovation
Division of Business and
Industry Development
Division of International
Business Development
Prospering
Communities &
Businesses
Entrepreneurial
Spirit
Specialized Industry
Leadership
Global Outlook
>
>
>
>
IMPACT
DISCUSSION “TRIGGERS”
The following topics lend themselves to a discussion with
a WEDC representative about possible state assistance:
• Gap financing for a catalytic project
• Historic Preservation
• Place-making initiatives
• Brownfield issues
• Redevelopment initiatives
• Economic strategies
• Gap financing for business growth
SITE ASSESSMENT GRANT PROGRAM
Provides assistance to local governments to conduct initial activities and
investigations at environmentally contaminated properties
Grant: Up to $150,000 – 33% Match minimum
Eligible activities include:
• Phase I and II Environmental Assessments
• Remedial Action Plans
• Demolition of structures (including asbestos)
• Removal of underground storage tanks or hazardous waste containers
SAG IN ACTION
The Morgan District (Former Jeld-Wen site), Oshkosh
West Waterfront Redevelopment (former Co-op site),
Sturgeon Bay
Mirro Plant, Manitowoc
97 Ellis Street, Kewaunee
Menekaunee Harbor, Marinette
BROWNFIELD GRANT PROGRAM
Provides assistance for the redevelopment of contaminated properties
Grant: Up to $500,000 (70% match)
Eligible applicants include local governmental units and businesses (non-for-profit
and for-profit)
Eligible activities include:
• Site Investigations, Remedial Action Plans and cleanup activities
• Building demolition or renovation
• Infrastructure improvements
BROWNFIELD IN ACTION
Metreau Apartments, Green Bay
City Deck Landing, Green Bay
The Rivers II, Oshkosh
Foremost Farm Site, Appleton
COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENT
GRANT
Provides assistance for the catalyst project in communities and planning efforts to
support redevelopment
Grant: up to $500,000 for implementation; $50,000 for planning
75% match required, can include private and public funds
Local government is the applicant
Competitive Rounds (April 17th next due date)
Eligible expenditures include:
• Historic Preservation
• New construction
• Branding/Marketing
• Feasibility Studies
• Redevelopment Plans
CDI GRANT IN ACTION - PLANNING
Tecumseh Redevelopment Planning, New Holstein
Downtown Site Development/Recruitment, Sister Bay
Town Square Re-Use Feasibility, Green Lake
Nicolet Square Redevelopment, DePere
Downtown Planning, Sherwood
CDI GRANT IN ACTION - IMPLEMENTATION
Grand Kakalin, Kaukauna
Super Valu Grocery Store Development,
Florence and Menasha
Retlaw Theater Redevelopment, Fond du Lac
Dealerfire, Oshkosh
Northland Hotel, Green Bay
HISTORIC TAX CREDITS
20% state, 20% federal
On National Register
• Listed individually
• Listed contributing to district
% based on investment to property
Credit is transferable
Work with State Historic Preservation Office
HTC IN ACTION
Dealerfire, Oshkosh
Platten Place, Green Bay
Northland Hotel, Green Bay
Legacy Architecture, Sheboygan
Lincoln School, Shawano
Grand Kaklin, Kaukauna
… and many more!
OTHER TECHNICAL RESOURCES
LocateInWisconsin.com
• Available Sites and Buildings
• Demographic data
InForce Network
Certified Sites
Marketing Materials
CONTACTS
Naletta Burr
Community Account Manager
(608) 210-6830
naletta.burr@wedc.org
Melissa Hunt
Regional Account Manager
(608) 210-6780
melissa.hunt@wedc.org
Jon Bartz
Regional Account Manager
(608) 210-6846
Jon.bartz@wedc.org

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InDevelop15

Editor's Notes

  1. Boom sounds like Bubble and that makes me nervous.
  2. http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2011/fs110713.cfm Kenneth Arrow, one of the most notable Nobel Laureates in economics, has his own perspective on forecasting. During World War II, he served as a weather officer in the U.S. Army Air Corps and worked with a team charged with the particularly difficult task of producing month-ahead weather forecasts. As Arrow and his team reviewed these predictions, they confirmed statistically what you and I might just as easily have guessed: The Corps’ weather forecasts were no more useful than random rolls of a die. Understandably, the forecasters asked to be relieved of this seemingly futile duty. Arrow’s recollection of his superiors’ response was priceless: “The commanding general is well aware that the forecasts are no good. However, he needs them for planning purposes.”[6] Eminent Economists: Their Life Philosophies, ed. Michael Szenberg, Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 1992.
  3. http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2011/fs110713.cfm Kenneth Arrow, one of the most notable Nobel Laureates in economics, has his own perspective on forecasting. During World War II, he served as a weather officer in the U.S. Army Air Corps and worked with a team charged with the particularly difficult task of producing month-ahead weather forecasts. As Arrow and his team reviewed these predictions, they confirmed statistically what you and I might just as easily have guessed: The Corps’ weather forecasts were no more useful than random rolls of a die. Understandably, the forecasters asked to be relieved of this seemingly futile duty. Arrow’s recollection of his superiors’ response was priceless: “The commanding general is well aware that the forecasts are no good. However, he needs them for planning purposes.”[6] Eminent Economists: Their Life Philosophies, ed. Michael Szenberg, Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 1992.
  4. Poll Title: What will 30 year mortgage rates be one year from now? http://www.polleverywhere.com/multiple_choice_polls/fO8UK8W1yWuMqkH
  5. 5 Patients. 1 Drug, we will call it the FED, and a Placebo, we will call it the ECB.
  6. Its not just interest rates which have fallen from low global demand, Oil prices too.
  7. Poll Title: How have the lsat 3 years been for your business? http://www.polleverywhere.com/multiple_choice_polls/Oxls51E44nhEOaR
  8. http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21643207-commercial-property-has-been-delivering-excellent-returns-skys-limit?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/theskysthelimit Commercial property has been delivering excellent returns Feb 14th 2015 | From the print edition KEEP interest rates low for long enough and the property market will eventually boom. That has been a good rule of thumb for investors throughout history. It is even proving true in Europe, despite the continent’s sluggish economy. According to Real Capital Analytics, an information provider, Europe saw €213 billion ($241 billion) of commercial-property transactions last year, up by 13% from 2013 and the highest annual total since 2007. The number of transactions more than doubled in Spain last year and there were big gains in Switzerland and the Netherlands, too. Three European markets—Austria, Ireland and Switzerland—surpassed the transaction levels of 2007, the top of the last cycle. In this section Smoking out the firebrands Refilling the pipeline On the dragon’s tail Nothing for money Survival of the least fit The secure v the poor Guaranteed profits Internship The sky’s the limit Reprints Related topics United States Switzerland Japan Business Property Europe’s rebound outpaced the 9% rise in global property transactions, although not a 15% rise in American deals. Office buildings and hotels were the most active sectors worldwide. It is hardly surprising that investors are enthusiastic for bricks and mortar. In both the cash and government-bond markets, yields are zero or even negative. By comparison, yields of 5% on American property or even 4% on office blocks in central London look attractive. Those yields have been falling, however. Sabina Kalyan of CBRE Global Investors says that prime offices (those in the best locations) in Madrid are now changing hands at 4.5%, compared with around 8% at the bottom of the market. Prime property yields in all Europe’s capitals are now at or below the level of 2007. Nonetheless, the long-term returns from property look very respectable. In the ten years to end-September, American commercial property delivered a total annualised return of 7.9%, according to IPD, a property-information group; returns in both Canada and New Zealand were in the double digits over the same period (see chart). That compares with the 8.1% annual return (including dividends) achieved by American equities over the same period and with the 6.8% annual return achieved on long-term Treasury bonds. The equivalent rates for British equities and long-term bonds were 8% and 6.8% respectively. So does this mean the market is now hideously overblown and due for another downturn? Not necessarily. Property is vulnerable to three things: a rise in interest rates, a downturn in the economy that hits demand, and a burst of speculative building that leads to oversupply. On the first point, central banks are still cutting rates in much of the world. There is the possibility of rate rises in America and Britain over the next year, but with inflation very low, central banks are likely to be cautious. The world economy is not exactly racing, but forecasts (for what they are worth) predict GDP growth of more than 1% in the euro area and Japan and more than 3% in America. In any case, prime properties, which investors are most enthusiastic about, managed to weather the 2008-09 recession and so should be resilient to another downturn. In terms of supply, it is easy to be misled by the view from The Economist’s offices of the flocks of cranes perched over London. This is the exception. Globally there is yet to be the kind of development spree that usually marks the peak of the property cycle. Deals involving development land fell by 29% globally last year, including a 3% decline in Europe. So it is possible that commercial property’s streak could last a good deal longer. Lots of investors need income and the obvious alternative to property—corporate bonds—has had a very good run. Investors have even been willing to accept a negative yield on bonds issued by Nestlé, a Swiss foods group, in effect paying for the privilege of lending it money. Until the 1970s property was the asset of choice for long-term investors such as university endowments and pension funds. It has been replaced in recent decades by government bonds, which are much more liquid. If yields on bonds stay at Japan-like levels for a while, however, the allure of property will only increase. And if inflation returns, property will be a better hedge than conventional government bonds. Eventually, such logic will inflate a bubble, of course. Residential property in London (fuelled by a combination of low rates and international capital) has already reached that point. But the surge of interest in second-tier and more speculative commercial-property projects that marks the top of the cycle is only just beginning, at least in Europe. The skyscrapers will tell you when to worry. Economist.com/blogs/buttonwood
  9. Poll Title: Where would you like to live when you retire? http://www.polleverywhere.com/multiple_choice_polls/E53n00e5uWqgqMu
  10. Fact 1: Millennials are now the largest, most diverse generation in the U.S. population................................. 5 Fact 2: Millennials have been shaped by technology. ....................................................................................... 7 Fact 3: Millennials value community, family, and creativity in their work........................................................ 9 Fact 4: Millennials have invested in human capital more than previous generations. ................................... 12 Fact 5: College-going Millennials are more likely to study social science and applied fields.......................... 14 Fact 6: As college enrollments grow, more students rely on loans to pay for post-secondary education. .... 16 Fact 7: Millennials are more likely to focus exclusively on studies instead of combining school and work. .. 18 Fact 8: As a result of the Affordable Care Act, Millennials are much more likely to have health insurance coverage during their young adult years. ........................................................................................................ 20 Fact 9: Millennials will contend with the effects of starting their careers during a historic downturn for years to come. ........................................................................................................................................................... 23 Fact 10: Investments in human capital are likely to have a substantial payoff for Millennials....................... 27 Fact 11: Working Millennials are staying with their early-career employers longer....................................... 29 Fact 12: Millennial women have more labor market equality than previous generations ............................. 31 Fact 13: Millennials tend to get married later than previous generations...................................................... 34 Fact 14: Millennials are less likely to be homeowners than young adults in previous generations. .............. 37 Fact 15: College-educated Millennials have moved into urban areas faster than their less educated peers. 42 Conclusion........................................................................................................................................................ 44
  11. [Greeting] [Introduction of WEDC Representatives] Thank you for the invitation to share with Keller the business development tools and resources WEDC offers to help businesses succeed in Wisconsin. Whenever we are given the opportunity to talk about the financial and operational assistance we offer to companies operating in the state, we find that people are surprised to learn about the full breadth of our services. That’s why we are reaching out to companies such as Keller, so that you can help connect your clients with the funding and expertise available through WEDC and our many economic development partners to help them reach their goals. Our presentation and the reference materials we’ll leave with you are organized by company “need” to help you identify the particular programs most relevant to the businesses you serve.
  12. Our divisional structure reflects critical drivers for Wisconsin’s economy. Our Division of Economic and Community Development helps businesses in our communities with their plans for growth. The majority of new jobs created in our state will come from businesses already here. Companies looking to relocate to Wisconsin are going to look to our existing businesses as a barometer of the state’s economic climate. This division also helps communities like yours in developing the infrastructure and programs need to retain and attract businesses and people. The Division of Entrepreneurship and Innovation provides support to entrepreneurs. Filling the start-up pipeline is critical to Wisconsin’s economic future. Entrepreneurs need to know that they can succeed in Wisconsin. Our Division of Business and Industry Development supports and nurtures driver industries that provide or will provide a competitive advantage for the state. The Division of International Business Development encourages the globalization of Wisconsin companies while attracting capital from international investors. Today we’re going to talk mostly about the tools and resources available from the Division of Economic and Community Development. Explain RAM and CAM and that CAMs are the gateway for lenders to access or learn about any WEDC resources.
  13. When should you think about bringing in a WEDC representative to talk about possible state assistance?
  14. Here is our contact information if anyone would like to contact any one of us after today’s event.