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April 2012 final

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April 2012 final

  1. 1. Economic Indicators:An Update for the 7 Rivers Region
  2. 2. What would you say worries you most about thenational economy at this time?
  3. 3. 7 Rivers Consumer Sentiment110100 7 Rivers90807060 National5040 April 2002 April 2004 April 2007*** February April 2011*** 2009*** *** Survey moves to web
  4. 4. Case-Shiller Index of Home Prices240.0220.0200.0180.0160.0 7 Rivers Region140.0 Minneapolis120.0100.0 Phoenix 80.0 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12
  5. 5. Average Price of Single Family$175,000 Homes Sold in 7 Rivers Region$150,000$125,000$100,000 $75,000 1997- 1999- 2001- 2003- 2005- 2007- 2009- 2011- Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
  6. 6. Average Number of Days on160 Market 7 Rivers Region140120100 80 60401997-Jan 2000-Jan 2003-Jan 2006-Jan 2009-Jan 2012-Jan
  7. 7. Foreclosures Filed in 7 Rivers Region1,000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 - 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
  8. 8. La Crosse Foreclosures Filed300.0250.0200.0150.0100.0 50.0 - 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
  9. 9. Number of Building Permits in La Crosse MSA80.070.060.0 Total Permits50.040.030.020.0 Single Unit Permits10.0 0.0 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11
  10. 10. Employment Cumulative Decline8 from NBER Peak (pct) 199064 200120-2 2007-4-6-8 1 13 25 37 49 61
  11. 11. 12.00 Unemployment Rate by Duration10.00 8.00 >26 Weeks 6.00 4.00 5 to 14 Weeks 2.00 15-26 Weeks 0.00 < 5 WeeksSource: BLS
  12. 12. 100% Percent of unemployed < 5 Weeks 75% 50% 5 to 14 Weeks 25% 15 to 26 Weeks > 26 Weeks 0% Jan-80 Jan-84 Jan-88 Jan-92 Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12Source: BLS
  13. 13. 1 Cumulative Decline in Wisconsin Employment0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49-1-2 2001 1980-3 2007-4-5-6-7-8
  14. 14. The Walker Promise: 250,000 Jobs 3050.0Wisconsin Non-Farm Employment: Thousands 3000.0 2950.0 2900.0 2850.0 2800.0 2750.0 2700.0 2650.0 2600.0 2550.0 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Source: BLS, http://goo.gl/lE69o
  15. 15. 2950.0 The Dayton Promise: 240,000 JobsMinnesota Non-Farm Employment: Thousands 2900.0 2850.0 2800.0 2750.0 2700.0 2650.0 2600.0 2550.0 2500.0 2450.0 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Source: BLS, http://goo.gl/lE69o
  16. 16. -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Total Construction MN Manufacturing WI Trade, Trans., Util. FinanceProf. and Bus. Services Educ. And HealthLeisure and Hospitality Government Change in State Employment by Industry
  17. 17. 7 Rivers Employment: SA 190.0Thousands 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12
  18. 18. La Crosse County 1,100.0 Sales Tax RevenueThousands 1,000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11
  19. 19. Rising Income InequalityTaggert J. Brooks, PhDChair and Associate Professor ofEconomicsUniversity of Wisconsin-La Crosse
  20. 20. Non-Standard Disclaimer:I am an academic economist.My income is above the median for the USand this region, but below the median in thisroom.Its all relative, and sometimes that matters forour perspectives. It matters for monkeys too.
  21. 21. Monkeys and Fairness
  22. 22. Most rich people are rich because...they know the right people or were born into wealthy families of their own hard work, ambition, or education. 7 Rivers Region other National - 10 20 30 40 50 60
  23. 23. Louis D. Brandeis“We may have democracy, or wemay have wealth concentrated inthe hands of a few, but wecannot have both.”
  24. 24. Top 1% of Income Earners Share of Total Income – U.S.20.015.010.0 5.0 - 1913 1937 1961 1985 2009
  25. 25. InputsSkillsTalentEducationFamily
  26. 26. TheMarket
  27. 27. Consumers
  28. 28. TheGovernmentTaxes/Transfer s
  29. 29. Top 1% of Income Earners Share of Total Income – U.K.20.015.010.0 5.0 - 1913 1933 1953 1973 1993
  30. 30. Top 1% of Income Earners Share of Total Income - Sweden20.015.010.0 5.0 - 1919 1949 1979 2009
  31. 31. Gini CoefficientA/(A+B)
  32. 32. Gini Coefficient0 1 More Equal
  33. 33. Gini Coefficient For Countries Namibia .707 Mexico .517 US .450 China .415 UK .340 Sweden .230
  34. 34. Gini Coefficient For ProSalaries Baseball .626 Golf .566 Basketball .528 Football .512 Hockey .458
  35. 35. Frank and Cook“Winner-take-all markets haveproliferated in part becausetechnology has greatly extendedthe power and reach of theplanets most giftedperformers....Now that mostmusic we listen to isprerecorded...the worlds best
  36. 36. Top 1% of Income Earners Share of Total Income - Sweden20.015.010.0 5.0 - 1919 1949 1979 2009
  37. 37. Rick Warren“Well certainly the Bible says weare to care about the poor....Buttheres a fundamental questionon the meaning of "fairness."Does fairness mean everybodymakes the same amount ofmoney? Or does fairness meaneverybody gets the opportunity
  38. 38. Rick Warren“When you subsidizepeople, you create thedependency. You — you robthem of dignity.”
  39. 39. Means-Tested Transfers AFDC/TANF (Temporary Assistance to Needy Families) CTC (child tax credit) EITC (earned income tax credit) Medicaid SSI (Supplemental Security Income), WIC (The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children) Food Stamps, General Assistance, Housing Assistance, Free and Reduced Lunches
  40. 40. Social Insurance Transfers SSDI (disability insurance), Medicare, Social Security Retirement, UI (unemployment insurance), Veterans Benefits, WC (workers compensation)
  41. 41. Transfers to All Medicare Social Security Retirement
  42. 42. Felix Frankfurter“It is a wise man who said thatthere is no greater inequalitythan the equal treatment ofunequals.”
  43. 43. Little Things Can Matter Admission Policy and College Selectivity. Early Childhood Interventions
  44. 44. Nudge
  45. 45. Explanations for RisingInequality Skill Biased Technological Innovation Education Inequality “Globalization” Economics of Superstars Immigration “Coming Apart” Household Formation Falling Unionization (Males) Falling Real Minimum Wage (Females)
  46. 46. 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 Doctoral degree Professional degree Masters degree Bachelors degree Associate degree Some college, no degree High-school graduateLess than a high school diploma 2010 Median Weekly Earnings by Degree
  47. 47. Solutions Improve Transfers to Poor Tax “Winner-take-all” markets to reduce income variance. “Brandeis Tax” Improve Education  Expand Early Childhood Interventions  Extend the School day/year
  48. 48. Local Income Inequality
  49. 49. Thanks.

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