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Selecting Designs for Cause and Effect, Normative, and Descriptive  Evaluation Questions 因果性、规范性和描述性评价问题的设计 Shanghai International Program for Development Evaluation Training Asia-Pacific Finance and Development Center 200 Panlong Road-Shanghai, October 13, 2008 Ray C. Rist
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Dadang Solihin Indonesia Delegation Shanghai International Program for Development Evaluation Training
Introduction  引言 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Elephants in the Village 村庄里的大象  www.dadangsolihin.com
Connecting Questions to Design 将评价问题和设计联系起来 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Evaluation Design   评价设计 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Design Process 设计过程 www.dadangsolihin.com Questions 问题 Designs 设计 Methods 方法 Reporting 报告 Analysis 分析
Approach to Development Evaluation 发展评价的方法 Focus the Evaluation 把重点放在评价上面 ▪  Purpose 目的 ▪  Terms of Reference 受权调查范围 ▪  Program logic model 计划的逻辑模型 ▪  Program outcome model 计划的成果模型 ▪  Specification of evaluation questions 评价问题的说明 ▪  Identification of stakeholders 利益相关者的确定 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Gather & Analyze Data 收集和分析数据 ▪  Gather data according to protocols 根据协议收集数据 ▪  Prepare data for analysis 为分析准备数据 ▪  Analyze data 分析数据 Report Findings 报告调查结果 ▪  Interpret the data 解释数据 ▪  Write report 撰写报告 ▪  Make recommendations 提出建议 Use Evaluation 使用评价 ▪  Communicate Findings 交流调查结果 ▪  Feed-back 反馈 ▪  Decision-making 决策 ▪  Action Plan 行动计划 www.dadangsolihin.com
Design Matrix 设计矩阵 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Matrix Elements   矩阵要素 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Matrix Elements  ( Cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Matrix Elements  ( Cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Matrix Elements (page 2) 矩阵要素(第 2 页) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Connecting Questions to Design 将问题和设计联系起来 www.dadangsolihin.com
Answering Descriptive Questions   回答描述性问题 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
One-shot Designs   单次研究设计 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
One-shot   单次研究 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Cross-sectional Designs 横断面研究设计 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Cross-sectional   横断面研究 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Cross-sectional   横断面研究 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Before-and-after Designs 前后对比研究设计 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Before-and-after Designs 前后对比研究设计 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Time Series Designs 时间序列研究设计 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Time Series   时间序列研究 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Time Series   时间序列研究 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Longitudinal Study   跟踪研究 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Longitudinal   跟踪研究 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Case Study Design   案例研究设计 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Case Study   案例研究 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Answering Normative Questions   回答规范性问题 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Answering Cause-Effect Questions   回答因果关系问题 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Common Threats to Internal Validity   内部有效性的共同影响因素 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Impact Designs   “ 影响研究”设计 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Controlling   控制 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Impact and Multi-site and Cluster Evaluations   影响评价、多点评价与聚类评价 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Design Elements 设计要素 www.dadangsolihin.com
Design Elements for Impact Questions   “ 影响问题”的设计要素 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Before-and-After Measures 前后对比测量 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Comparison Groups 对照组 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Random Assignment 随机分配 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Use of Control Variables 控制变量的使用 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Use of Natural Variation 自然变化的使用 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Causal Tracing Strategies 原因跟踪策略 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Causal Tracing Strategies   原因跟踪策略 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
9 Causal Tracing Evidence Sources 九种原因跟踪证据来源 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Types of Evaluation Designs for Impact 针对“影响评价”的设计类型 www.dadangsolihin.com
Types   类型 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Experimental Design 实验研究设计 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Randomized Control Trials (RCTs)  随机对照试验 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Randomized Control Trials (RCTs) 随机对照试验 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Quasi-experimental Design 准实验研究设计 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Examples of Quasi-experimental Design 准实验研究设计示例 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Cor r elational Design 相关研究设计 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Case Study Design 案例研究设计 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Key Points about Design 有关设计的关键点 www.dadangsolihin.com
Key Points   关键点 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],www.dadangsolihin.com
Thank you! 谢谢!
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Dadang Solihin currently  is Director for  Regional D evelopment Performance Evaluation at  Indonesian National Development Planning Agency  (Bappenas). He  holds MA degree in Economics from University of Colorado, USA. His previous post is  Director for System and Reporting of Development Performance Evaluation at  Bappenas.  Dadang Solihin’s Profile www.dadangsolihin.com

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  • 1. Selecting Designs for Cause and Effect, Normative, and Descriptive Evaluation Questions 因果性、规范性和描述性评价问题的设计 Shanghai International Program for Development Evaluation Training Asia-Pacific Finance and Development Center 200 Panlong Road-Shanghai, October 13, 2008 Ray C. Rist
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