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International business

The electricity industry

     Silvester van Koten
              PAHX
            CERGE-EI
   Florence School of Regulation
Transmission
     Principles of Transmission, applied
      to the EU transmission network
1.   Line limits
2.   Principles of dispatch
3.   Role of frequency in ac lines and stability
     requirements
4.   Transmission shortage, the internal market
     and the 2050 carbon targets
Power plants
Distributors
Transmission
Industrial
                         consumers


  Transmission                            Other countries



                    Distributors

Power Plants




                 Residential consumers:
                      Households
1. Power plants
Hydro-plant
Baseload

      Large coal plants
Baseload
       Nuclear plants
Peaker
         Oil burning plants
Wind turbines



                Solar panels



      Renewable energies
Renewable energies

Concentrated solar power
Peaker
                 Gas burning plants

                                               OCGT
                                              CCGT



http://iea-etsap.org/web/Highlights%20PDF/E02-gas_fired_power-GS-AD-gct%201.pdf
Multitude of generation types
• Trade-off:
  – Economics of scale Baseload power plants
     • High fixed cost
     • Low variable costs


  – Flexibility
     • Low fixed costs       Peaker power plants
     • High variable costs
Fixed cost per   Variable cost
               MWh           per MWh
Baseload        40               0
Peaker          10               50
Peaker
60


40
                             Baseload



10
0
                                Capacity factor
                60%         100% (=8760 hours/year)


                  Fixed cost per     Variable cost
                      MWh             per MWh
     Baseload          40                  0
     Peaker            10                  50
Peaker
60


40
                                    Baseload



10
0
                                       Capacity factor
                     60%           100%



     Use peakers           Use baseload
     when capacity         when capacity
     factor < 60%          factor > 60%
PEAKER




 BASELOAD
Very expensive to built a
         plant for only 87 hours!
         Cost?
         $1050/MWH (=100*10+50)




0   1%    =87 hours
Price spike
Can price-spikes be avoided?
- Cap the price, eg at $1000/MWH
Cost is $1050/MWH
                            >
                         price cap




0       1%   =87 hours



    ?
BLACKOUT
Cost is $1050/MWH
                            >
                         price cap




0       1%   =87 hours



    ?
Can price-spikes be avoided?
- Cap the price, eg at $1000/MWH
- Capacity market
  - Pay power plants for being prepared to generate,
    even if they are not called upon
Income of a power plant:
- Price of electricity
- Capacity payments (reserve)
Setting of the wholesale
    electricity Price
Uniform price auction
$/MWH
        Baseload plants   Peaker plants
            (MC=0)




                            D        S=MC
80

        PROFITS!
Uniform price auction
$/MWH
        Baseload plants   Peaker plants
            (MC=0)




                            D        S
80
Uniform price auction
$/MWH
        Baseload plants   Peaker plants
            (MC=0)




                            D        S
80
Uniform price auction
$/MWH
        Baseload plants   Peaker plants
            (MC=0)




                            D        S
80
60
Renewables
Wind turbines



                Solar panels



      Renewable energies
Greenhouse gasses heat up the earth




         Abate CO2
2020 Targets: 20% decarbonization

2050 Targets: 80% decarbonization
Wind turbines



                Solar panels



      Renewable energies
Retire 1 coal or CCGT plant

   =(500 MW conventional)




Install over 1000 wind turbines

  =(3000-5000 MW wind or solar)
• Wind and solar needs conventional backup
• Firm capacity 10%-15%




http://ejournal.windeng.net/3/01/GGiebel-
CapCredLit_WindEngEJournal_2005_right_links.pdf
Wind generation in Germany




http://www.pnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_reports/PNNL-19225.pdf
Feed-in tariffs
         Case of Germany

  2004                      2012
0.50 €/kWh           0.20€/kWh

                Coal or gas plant costs
                 0.04€/kWh
€/kWH   Uniform price auction




                D               S=MC


0.10
0
-0.10
€/kWH      Uniform price auction
        Negative electricity wholesale price in Germany!




                       D                     S=MC


0.10
0
-0.10
German electricity wholesale market
Electricity prices 2001-2012

                                                   €24 billion deficit




        Czech                  Germany              Spain
        Republic
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/energy/data/main_tables
EU Electricity industry Association
Need for long-distance transmission
Hydro-plant and pumped storage
Hydro-plant and pumped storage
Hydro potential
Need for long-distance transmission
Need for long-distance transmission
2. Transmission lines
Industrial
                         consumers


  Transmission                            Other countries



                    Distributors

Power Plants




                 Residential consumers:
                      Households
September 28th, 2003

Huge blackout cripples Italy!
Rome’s “white night”
110 trains stopped night”
      Rome’s “white



Thousands of people stuck
Sils-Soazza
     Tree
  flashover!
                     “Cross-border
                  transmission lines”


Mettlen-         “Interconnectors”
Lavorgo


               03:01
Sils-Soazza
      Tree
   flashover!




Mettlen-
Lavorgo


                03:01
Sils-Soazza




Mettlen-
Lavorgo


           03:01
           03:01-03.16
The Swiss TSO operator asks the
Italian TSO for countermeasures




TSO= Transmission System Operator




               03:11
Sils-Soazza

               Tree
            flashover!



Mettlen-
             Italy reduces
Lavorgo    import by -300 MW



           03:25
           03:21
Sils-Soazza

               Tree
            flashover!



Mettlen-
Lavorgo


           03:25
All interconnectors are
automatically disconnected




              03:26
1. Transmission lines limits

2. Dispatch

3. Frequency and synchronicity

4. Transmission shortage in the EU
Transmission lines limits

                        Sils-Soazza
      Tree
   flashover!




Mettlen-
Lavorgo


                     03:01
Transmission lines limits


    flashover
High voltage
Transmission lines limits



                 High load



Sagging of the line
1. Transmission lines limits

2. Dispatch
Dispatch

                  Sils-Soazza




Mettlen-
Lavorgo


               03:01
Dispatch




Net Injection:
 Injection:
   50MW
  100MW                             Injection:
                                      20MW
                            ?

             A                  B
 Withdrawal:                            Net
                                    Withdrawal:
   50MW                             Withdrawal:
                                       70MW
                                      50MW
Dispatch




Net Injection:
   50MW
                 Physical flow: 50MW

             A                         B
                                               Net
                                           Withdrawal:
                                             50MW
Dispatch



             ∆-10MW
Net Injection:
   50MW
  40MW                   ∆ -10MW

                  Physical flow: 50MW
                                  40MW

             A                           B
                                                 ∆ -10MW

                                                 Net
                                             Withdrawal:
                                               40MW
                                               50MW
Dispatch




Net Injection:
   40MW
                   Physical flow: 40MW

             A                           B
  Electricity cannot just be “send”
              somewhere                          Net
                                             Withdrawal:
    Any flow is the RESULT of the              40MW
     injection and withdrawals
The Swiss TSO operator asks the
Italian TSO for countermeasures




Dispatch is done by national TSOs




              03:11
Dispatch

                  Sils-Soazza




Mettlen-
                  Italy reduces
Lavorgo         import by -300 MW



               03:25
               03:21
1. Transmission lines limits

2. Dispatch

3. Frequency and synchronicity
Frequency and Synchronicity




Direct Current (DC)

             Alternating Current (AC)
Frequency and Synchronicity




                50 Hertz




 Alternating
Current (AC)
Frequency and Synchronicity




Does a lamp in your house receive zero energy 100 times a second
and is thus blinking?

Raise your hand if you think that this is indeed the case.
Frequency and Synchronicity




50 Herz is the frequency in Europe
Frequency and Synchronicity




A shortage of generation
makes the frequency fall




     Slight shortage
Frequency and Synchronicity




A surplus of generation
makes the frequency rise

                            Slight surplus
Frequency and Synchronicity




http://www.dynamicdemand.co.uk/grid.htm
Frequency and Synchronicity




http://www.dynamicdemand.co.uk/grid.htm
Russian frequency
All generators are synchronized




                                    UCTE =
                                   Continental
                                  Synchronous
                                      Area
UCTE =
 Continental
Synchronous
    Area
•Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Mongolia, Ukraine
•Armenia
•Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia
•Uzbekistan, Tajikistan
•Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan?




    http://so-ups.ru/index.php?id=ees
Frequency and Synchronicity

  All interconnectors are
automatically disconnected




         03:26
Frequency and Synchronicity

Mini circuit breakers
Frequency and Synchronicity


High voltage circuit breakers
1. Transmission lines limits

2. Dispatch

3. Frequency and synchronicity

4. Transmission shortage in the EU
The future of the EU transmission network

Interconnectors very high loaded at night!




                  03:26
The future of the EU transmission network




Internal EU market induces increase
        in cross-border trading
The future of the EU transmission network


Massive deployment of wind and solar energy
The future of the EU transmission network

 European                                       2050
  Climate
                                          Increase from
Foundation
                                           34 GW to 127
                                               GW

                                                Increase
                                                of almost
                                                  400%
Industrial
                         consumers


  Transmission                            Other countries



                    Distributors

Power Plants




                 Residential consumers:
                      Households
Market organization and regulation


                                   Industrial
                                  consumers


                                                       Other countries
    Transmission




                       Distributors


Power Plants




                   Residential consumers: Households
3. Market organization
    and regulation
Transmission: large returns to scale


                   Natural monopoly


                        State monopoly
Vertically
                integrated
 Power Plants   electricity
                  Utility


                 State
Transmission    monopoly




Distributors
Vertically
                integrated
 Power Plants   electricity
                  Utility


                 State
Transmission    monopoly




Distributors
Competitive
                 Open to the
 Power Plants      market!


                  Remains a
                  monopoly
Transmission

                Needs regulation:
                • Cost+
                • Tariff
                • Benchmarking
Distributors
2003 and 2009 Electricity laws
               (2003/54/EC and 2009/72/EC)



• Separation from networks and generator
  activities
• Non-discriminatory access of generators to
  networks
• “EU regulator”: ACER
Most EU consumers no longer
 protected by electricity price
         regulation!
How is the electricity price
     then determined?

        Competition

But… Competition must work
Concentration Generators
Well-developed financial electricity
              market
- Exchanges and OTC
- risk management
Financial market manipulation
•   US hedge fund, Amaranth Advisors LLC held
    1. gas derivates at ICE and OTC markets
    2. Gas futures on NYMEX
•   Then sold the gas futures on NYMEX to
    affect the settlement price at ICE and OTC
    markets
•   Profit: $60m-$170m
REMIT
•   Regulation on Energy Market Integrity and
    Transparency
•   Forbids:
    –   Market abuse
    –   Insider trading
•   Monitoring task for National Regulaturs and
    “EU regulator” ACER
2003 and 2009 Electricity laws
               (2003/54/EC and 2009/72/EC)



• Separation from networks and generator
  activities
• Non-discriminatory access of generators to
  networks
• “EU regulator”: ACER
• 2020 goals: 20% renewable energy in 2020
  – Feed-in tariffs
  – Emission Trading Scheme
Greenhouse gasses heat up the earth




         Abate CO2
EMISSION PERMIT
               MARKET




Competition
    for
  permits

Decisions on
 abatement


               A       B         C
• United Power System (UPS): 4-th largest
  electricity market in the World.
• 700 generating plants Installed generating
  capacity 220 GW
Electricity generation Russia, 2006
Reform of the system 1992-2015
• 1992 United Energy Systems of Russia (RAO-
  UES) replaces soviet ministerial units
• 1998 Anatoly Chubais president of RAO-UES.
• 2003–2011
  – restructuring and private ownership
  – Partial price deregulation
• 2011 full competition in generation
• 2015 price deregulation for retail conconsumers
RAO UES split up in 2008
•   OGK 1: http://www.ogk1.com/en/       •   TGK 7: http://en.votgk.com/
•   OGK 2:                               •   TGK 8: http://www.tgk-8.ru/
    http://www.ogk2.ru/eng/index.wbp
                                         •   TGK 9: http://www.tgk9.ru
•   OGK 3: http://www.ogk3.ru/en-
    main/                                •   TGK 10: http://www.fortum.ru/company/
•                                        •   TGK 11: http://eng.tgk11.com/about/
    OGK 4: http://eng.ogk-4.ru/
                                         •   TGK 12: http://www.kuzbassenergo.ru/eng/
•   OGK 5: http://www.ogk-5.com/en/
                                         •   TGK 13: http://eng.tgk13.ru/
•   OGK 6: http://www.ogk6.ru/en/
                                         •   TGK 14: http://www.tgk-14.com/
•   GidroOGK:
    http://www.eng.rushydro.ru/          •   IDGC North-West: http://eng.mrsksevzap.ru/
•   TGK 1:                               •   IDGC Ural: http://www.mrsk-
    http://www.tgc1.ru/en/home/              ural.ru/eng/company/
•                                        •   IDGC South: http://www.mrsk-yuga.ru/
    TGK 2: http://www.tgc-
    2.ru:8101/en/index.shtml             •   IDGC Center: http://www.mrsk-1.ru/
•   TGK 3:                               •   IDGC Center and Volga Region:
    http://www.mosenergo.ru/Eng/Defa         http://www.mrsk-cp.ru/
    ult.aspx                             •   Manager of the unified transport network:
•   TGK 4: http://www.quadra.ru/             http://www.fsk-ees.ru/
•   TGK 5: http://www.tgc5.ru/rus.html   •   Rosenergoatom: http://www.rosenergoatom.ru/
•   TGK 6:
    http://www.tgc6.ru/index.php?
    id=news&L=1
Largest 3 foreign investors:
• E.ON (Germany)
• Enel (Italy)
• Fortum (Finland)
Need for new investment
• Most power stations built in 1960-1970
   – Low efficiency ratio of 33-35% instead of 40-52%
• Ministry of Energy: modernization program for
  generators of 10 trillion rubles up till 2030
   – Increase in demand for equipment
• Russian technology behind western standards
   –   heavy duty gas turbines
   –   ultra supercritical steam turbines
   –   gasification
   –   process control systems
Electricity consumption Russia, 2007


                     Gigantic losses
Growth of electricity demand
Competition problems
• No working retail markets yet
• Fair access to gas for fair and equal prices
  – Gas fired generators 40% of production
  – Newcomers often CCGT
  – Gazprom (75% share) seems to favor its own
    subsidiary generators
• Financial energy market not developed
  – Risk management
Regulation
• regulatory authority: the Market Council
• But not independent, government:
  – control over most pricing issues
  – Veto over Market Council decisions
Industrial
                         consumers


  Transmission                            Other countries



                    Distributors

Power Plants




                 Residential consumers:
                      Households
Electricity Economics

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