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Next lectures
Monday 01.07
• Week 12
– Wednesday 03.07
– Thursday 04.07

• Week 13
– Monday 08.07 (last lecture)
– Wednesday cancelled 10.07
Debunking Myths
“We need good cheap
nuclear energy...”
Cost escalation curse
Wind turbines

Solar panels

“Renewables deliver electricity
without carbon and for free”
Wind:
±€50/ tCO2

Solar:
±€350/ tCO2

Why install any wind, if a ton of CO2 can be
abated by buying and not using a certificate

- now - 12 to 96 times cheaper!?
Three true miracles
Late 19th century:
What invention or resource
saved Europe’s forests?
Late 19th century:
What invention or resource
saved the whales?
Early 20th century:
What was the largest
environmental doom
threatening large cities?
Cities early
20th century

Forests late
19th century

Whales late
19th century
• HORSES
• In 19th century still main
source of energy
• Horse been dominant mode of
transportation for thousands of years.
• 19th century absolutely essential
– personal transportation
– freight haulage
– mechanical power

• Without horses, cities would starve.
Find the “fake” picture
• Horse consumes
– 1.4 tons of oats
– 2.4 tons of hay per year

• Horse produced
– 7 and 15kg of manure per day

• New York & Brooklyn
– in 1880: 150,000 - 175,000 horses
– 1.5mil kg manure a day
– 150.000 liter of urin a day
• Polluted streets
– Street sweepers
– Wet weather
– Dry weather

• Expensive:
– End of 1800s stableowners had to pay to
have manure removed

• Flies
– typhoid and “infant diarrheal
Omnibus lowered costs and increased the
use of horses

London

Copenhagen
Introduction of rails further lowered costs

Amsterdam
• 1800-> 1900
– NY
• 3 times more dense
• 4 times higher per capita income
• Prognosis 1894 (the Times of London)
– By1930 horse manure would rise to
Manhattan’s third-story windows.
– by 1950 every street in the city would be
buried 3 meter deep in Horse manure.
• Dangerous horses
– Horses kicking, biting, or trampling
• Especially children.

– Chicago: in1916 17 dead by horse / 10,000
horse-drawn vehicles;
– 7x more than in 1997 deads /10.000 cars!

• Cadavers
– life expectancy < 2 years
– In 1888 in NewYork: 41 cadavers/day.
•
•
•
•

Manure +urine + flies
Congestion
Carcasses
Traffic accidents

• Solution?
• Horse been dominant mode of
transportation for thousands of years.
• Without horses, cities would starve.
• Urban planning conference scheduled for
10 days...
Not long afterward, a solution
appeared.
This solution came out-ofnowhere.
It was wholly unanticipated.
...and it changed everything.
• 1890 internal combustion engine
• 1912 NewYork
– For first time cars> horses

AUTOMOBILE (& OIL) is hailed as a
miraculous environmental savior.
• How did this solution come about?
– Was it a choice of the government? (picking
winners?)
– A subsidy scheme for cars? (picking winners?)
– Was it technological development embedded in a
free market?

• Technological fixes are often far simpler, and
therefore cheaper, than the doomsayers
could have imagined.
What invention or resource
saved Europe’s forests?
COAL
Juan Moreno Cruz, 2012. Back to the Future of Green Powered Economies Working Papers 2013-06, Department of Economics, University of Calgary.
What invention or resource
saved the whales?
OIL
Cities early
20th century

Forests late
19th century

Whales late
19th century
• Lewis Strauss, then Chairman of the
United States Atomic Energy Commission, who in a
1954 speech to the National Association of Science
Writers said:
• "Our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy
too cheap to meter... It is not too much to expect that our
children will know of great periodic regional famines in
the world only as matters of history, will travel effortlessly
over the seas and under them and through the air with a
minimum of danger and at great speeds, and will
experience a lifespan far longer than ours, as disease
yields and man comes to understand what causes him to
age."[2]
True miracles and disasters (in Energy and Climate)

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True miracles and disasters (in Energy and Climate)

  • 1. Next lectures Monday 01.07 • Week 12 – Wednesday 03.07 – Thursday 04.07 • Week 13 – Monday 08.07 (last lecture) – Wednesday cancelled 10.07
  • 3. “We need good cheap nuclear energy...”
  • 5. Wind turbines Solar panels “Renewables deliver electricity without carbon and for free”
  • 6. Wind: ±€50/ tCO2 Solar: ±€350/ tCO2 Why install any wind, if a ton of CO2 can be abated by buying and not using a certificate - now - 12 to 96 times cheaper!?
  • 8. Late 19th century: What invention or resource saved Europe’s forests?
  • 9. Late 19th century: What invention or resource saved the whales?
  • 10. Early 20th century: What was the largest environmental doom threatening large cities?
  • 11. Cities early 20th century Forests late 19th century Whales late 19th century
  • 12. • HORSES • In 19th century still main source of energy
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. • Horse been dominant mode of transportation for thousands of years. • 19th century absolutely essential – personal transportation – freight haulage – mechanical power • Without horses, cities would starve.
  • 19.
  • 20. • Horse consumes – 1.4 tons of oats – 2.4 tons of hay per year • Horse produced – 7 and 15kg of manure per day • New York & Brooklyn – in 1880: 150,000 - 175,000 horses – 1.5mil kg manure a day – 150.000 liter of urin a day
  • 21. • Polluted streets – Street sweepers – Wet weather – Dry weather • Expensive: – End of 1800s stableowners had to pay to have manure removed • Flies – typhoid and “infant diarrheal
  • 22. Omnibus lowered costs and increased the use of horses London Copenhagen
  • 23. Introduction of rails further lowered costs Amsterdam
  • 24. • 1800-> 1900 – NY • 3 times more dense • 4 times higher per capita income
  • 25. • Prognosis 1894 (the Times of London) – By1930 horse manure would rise to Manhattan’s third-story windows. – by 1950 every street in the city would be buried 3 meter deep in Horse manure.
  • 26.
  • 27. • Dangerous horses – Horses kicking, biting, or trampling • Especially children. – Chicago: in1916 17 dead by horse / 10,000 horse-drawn vehicles; – 7x more than in 1997 deads /10.000 cars! • Cadavers – life expectancy < 2 years – In 1888 in NewYork: 41 cadavers/day.
  • 28. • • • • Manure +urine + flies Congestion Carcasses Traffic accidents • Solution?
  • 29. • Horse been dominant mode of transportation for thousands of years. • Without horses, cities would starve. • Urban planning conference scheduled for 10 days...
  • 30. Not long afterward, a solution appeared. This solution came out-ofnowhere. It was wholly unanticipated. ...and it changed everything.
  • 31.
  • 32. • 1890 internal combustion engine • 1912 NewYork – For first time cars> horses AUTOMOBILE (& OIL) is hailed as a miraculous environmental savior.
  • 33. • How did this solution come about? – Was it a choice of the government? (picking winners?) – A subsidy scheme for cars? (picking winners?) – Was it technological development embedded in a free market? • Technological fixes are often far simpler, and therefore cheaper, than the doomsayers could have imagined.
  • 34. What invention or resource saved Europe’s forests?
  • 35. COAL
  • 36. Juan Moreno Cruz, 2012. Back to the Future of Green Powered Economies Working Papers 2013-06, Department of Economics, University of Calgary.
  • 37. What invention or resource saved the whales?
  • 38. OIL
  • 39. Cities early 20th century Forests late 19th century Whales late 19th century
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43. • Lewis Strauss, then Chairman of the United States Atomic Energy Commission, who in a 1954 speech to the National Association of Science Writers said: • "Our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter... It is not too much to expect that our children will know of great periodic regional famines in the world only as matters of history, will travel effortlessly over the seas and under them and through the air with a minimum of danger and at great speeds, and will experience a lifespan far longer than ours, as disease yields and man comes to understand what causes him to age."[2]

Editor's Notes

  1. The recent surge in US liquids output, in volume terms, which is driving the North American oil scene, is part of a long-term cyclical pattern that encompasses the global petroleum sector. Over the last several decades, total OPEC production led supply growth, particularly in the 1970s, but has basically stagnated ever since. OPEC production today is marginally higher than it was in 1980. The late 1970s and the 1980s and 1990s saw non-OPEC take the lead on production growth, with high prices in the 1970s leading to a total growth of ~15-m b/d from new source production in the Soviet Union (especially Russia and the Caspian countries), Mexico, the North Sea and the North Slope of Alaska. That surge led to weak prices for nearly two decades, and with weak prices came a collapse in upstream capex after 1981. This has been the response to longer cyclical drivers of global capital expenditures, namely, higher oil prices. It has been higher prices in the last decade that, like higher prices in the 1970s, are leading to a resurgence in exploration and have unleashed three technological revolutions. US shale oil is one of them, but it has been preceded by the technological revolutions facilitating the tapping into vast hitherto non-commercial resources in deepwater and shale plays. Now the US is poised once again to become the largest liquid producer in the world and looks almost certain to overtake Russia and Saudi Arabia before the decade is over.
  2. 1800to90,366persquare milein1900. Greater humancrowdingmeant greater horsecrowdingaswell, and problemsthat might havebeentolerableinasparselypopulatedrural regionbecame unbearableinadenselypackedurbanone. Notonlywastheabsolutenumberofpeoplerising; percapitarelianceonthehorse wasrisingaswell.Livingstandardswereskyrocketing—from1800to1900,USpercapita GDProsefrom$1,148to$4,676(in2000dollars)
  3. Crossingsweepers”stoodonstreetcorners; forafeetheywouldclearapaththrough themireforpedestrians.
  4. Wetweatherturnedthestreetsintoswampsandriversofmuck, butdryweatherbroughtlittleimprovement;themanureturnedtodust,whichwasthen whippedupbythewind, chokingpedestriansandcoatingbuildings. Bytheendofthe1800sstableownershadtopaytohaveitcarted off. fly, andcloudsof flies hatchedinit (oneestimateisthat threebillionflieshatchedinhorsemanureperday inUScitiesintheyear1900)
  5. 11 horses/ vehicle * day!!!
  6. NY: 300 rides a year per capita
  7. Horsemanure Thesituationseemeddire.In1894, theTimesofLondonestimated that by1950everystreet inthecitywouldbeburiedninefeet deepin horsemanure. OneNewYorkprognosticatorof the1890sconcluded thatby1930thehorsedroppingswouldrisetoManhattan’sthird-story windows. Andnopossiblesolutioncouldbedevised. Afterall, thehorsehad beenthedominant modeof transportationfor thousandsof years. Horseswereabsolutelyessential forthefunctioningof thenineteenth-centurycity—forpersonal transportation, freight haulage, andeven mechanical power. Without horses, citieswouldquiteliterallystarve. theurbanplanningconferencedeclaredits workfruitlessandbrokeupinthreedaysinsteadofthescheduledten.
  8. DatafromChicagoshowthat in1916there were16.9horse-relatedfatalitiesforeach10,000horse-drawnvehicles; thisisnearly seventimesthecity’sfatalityrateperautoin1997. Streetcleanersoftenwaitedforthecorpsestoputrefysothey couldmoreeasilybesawedintopiecesandcartedoff. Thusthecorpsesrottedinthe streets,sometimesfordays,withlessthanappealingconsequencesfortrafficcirculation, aesthetics, andpublichealth. horseswererapidlydriventodeath; theaveragestreetcarhorsehadalife expectancyof barelytwoyears. In1880, NewYorkcartedawaynearly15,000dead equinesfromitsstreets, arateof41perday.
  9. Horse been dominant mode of transportation for thousands of years. Absolutely essential forthefunctioningof thenineteenth-centurycity—forpersonal transportation, freight haulage, andeven mechanical power. Without horses, citieswouldquiteliterallystarve. theurbanplanningconferencedeclaredits workfruitlessandbrokeupinthreedaysinsteadofthescheduledten.
  10. 1890s improvements in the internal combustion engine,legal and political developments Whichseverely restricted the power of cities to regulate the types of traffic on their streets(won by bicycle advocates), theaforementionedinventionof trafficrules, and Smooth new asphalt street surfaces paved the way for the private automobile. In 1912, traffic counts in NewYorkshowed morecarsthanhorsesforthefirst time automobilewaswidelyhailedasanenvironmental savior. Eradicatedamajorurbanplanningnightmare
  11. 1890s improvements in the internal combustion engine,legal and political developments Whichseverely restricted the power of cities to regulate the types of traffic on their streets(won by bicycle advocates), theaforementionedinventionof trafficrules, and Smooth new asphalt street surfaces paved the way for the private automobile. In 1912, traffic counts in NewYorkshowed morecarsthanhorsesforthefirst time automobilewaswidelyhailedasanenvironmental savior. Eradicatedamajorurbanplanningnightmare