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The global scale spectrum 
of the volcanic hazard 
Maurizio Ripepe 
University of Florence, Italy
EYJAFJALLAJOKULL (Iceland) 2010 – VEI 3/4 
~250 milions m3 of lava (DRE) erupted in 38 days 
Volcanic gas: 
>80% of H2O, 
~10% CO2, 
~10% SO2, H2S, HCl, etc. 
Volcanic ash is the result of the magma fragmentation 
Ash is composed by ~58% of silica – highly abrasive 
Ejected at 105-106 kg/s
Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI) 
Newhall and Self, 2009 
Plume Height (km) 
stratosphere 
troposphere
Volcanic Ash Dispersal and Aviation Safety 
Aeroports Closed from April 15 to 21 
~95000 flights CANCELLED 
~5 millions of passengers grounded 
~150 milioni € lost per day ! 
3000 millions € of TOTAL Loss 
In 5 DAYS !!
Volcanic Ash Plume and Atmosphere Interaction 
Troposphere Image above South-America from Space Shuttle 
Hong Kong 1992 Pinatubo eruption 
The Scream:i Munch (1893)
Volcanic Ash Plume and Atmosphere Interaction 
Pinatubo volcano (Philippines) VEI 6 – June 1991 
Increase of the Atmospheric Optical Depth 
Climate forcing was stronger than the opposite, warming effects of El Niño 
event or anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the period 1991-93.
Volcanic Ash Plume and Atmosphere Interaction 
Large quantity of small particles (<10 mm) increases the planetary albedo 
Mean Temperature on Earth can be reduced of ~0.6°C
TAMBORA eruption (Indonesia) 1815– VEI 7 
the year without summer (1816) 
~160 km3 of lava/ash ejected 
- ash column reached >43 km 
In the stratosphere. 
- the explosion was heard 2,600 km away 
Global climate anomalies in North American and European weather. 
Agricultural crops failed and livestock died in much of the Northern Hemisphere, 
The worst famine of the 19th century. ~70.000 people died from starvation and 
disease, and ~ 10,000 were killed directly by the eruption.
TAMBORA eruption (Indonesia) 1815– VEI 7 
Strong Impact on Society in the following years 
the “bright sun was extinguish’d” and “morn came and went—and came, 
and brought no day.” Lord Byron’s “Darkness,” 
10% of probability an other Tambora-like Eruption 
will occurr in the next 50 years 
(Rampino et al., 1988) 
For 2-3 days complete darkness in a radius of 600 km around Tambora 
Famine and deseases spread all around triggering typhus and cholera epidemic
LAKI eruption (Islanda) 1783-1784 – VEI 6 
• 8 month of eruption 
• 14 km3 of lava ejected 
• 120 tonns of SO2 
• 15 km ash plume 
• 25% of islanders died 
Massive emission of SO2 - 23000 fatilities in England
Santorini (Thera) – Minoan (1600 BC) Eruption – VEI 6/7 
Santorini 
Creta 
Atene 
30-150 m Tsunami waves 
devasted Crete 110 km far away 
Consequences: 
Downfall of Minoan civilization 
Climate effects reported in China 
Heavy rainstorms devastated Egypt 
4 times larger than Krakatoa 
30-35 km height ash plume
The Flegrean Field Volcano – VEI 7 
13 km large caldera 
- Main eruption 39.000 years ago 
- 500 Km3 of DRE lava erupted 
- 60 m of ash 
1 million of people living inside 
Flegrean Field Ash-fall VEI 7 
(Pyle et al.,JVGR, 2006) 
Distance >2500 km 
Area ~3x106 km2 
Fallout ~40 km3 
Total Vol. ~200 km3
The Flegrean Field Volcano – VEI 7
Mt. Vesuvius (Italy) & Risk Perception 
~2 millions of people living in the area – small perception of the risk
The Largest Eruption on Earth: TOBA VEI 8 
Lago Toba 
Lago Toba (Indonesia) 
100 km 
2800 km3 of erupted lava – India and Pakistan covered by 15 cm of ash
TOBA Super Eruption – VEI ≥8 – 75000 years 
 3-5°C decrease of the mean temperature (Rampino and Self, 1996) 
 - 2°C after 10 years, cooler mean temperature for 1000 years 
Human population reduced to <20000 
(Huff et al., 2010) 
(The Genetic bottleneck )
Civilization exists by geologic consent, 
subject to change without notice 
(Will Durant, 1935) 
William Ashcroft.

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Rischio vulcani b-short

  • 1. The global scale spectrum of the volcanic hazard Maurizio Ripepe University of Florence, Italy
  • 2. EYJAFJALLAJOKULL (Iceland) 2010 – VEI 3/4 ~250 milions m3 of lava (DRE) erupted in 38 days Volcanic gas: >80% of H2O, ~10% CO2, ~10% SO2, H2S, HCl, etc. Volcanic ash is the result of the magma fragmentation Ash is composed by ~58% of silica – highly abrasive Ejected at 105-106 kg/s
  • 3. Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI) Newhall and Self, 2009 Plume Height (km) stratosphere troposphere
  • 4. Volcanic Ash Dispersal and Aviation Safety Aeroports Closed from April 15 to 21 ~95000 flights CANCELLED ~5 millions of passengers grounded ~150 milioni € lost per day ! 3000 millions € of TOTAL Loss In 5 DAYS !!
  • 5. Volcanic Ash Plume and Atmosphere Interaction Troposphere Image above South-America from Space Shuttle Hong Kong 1992 Pinatubo eruption The Scream:i Munch (1893)
  • 6. Volcanic Ash Plume and Atmosphere Interaction Pinatubo volcano (Philippines) VEI 6 – June 1991 Increase of the Atmospheric Optical Depth Climate forcing was stronger than the opposite, warming effects of El Niño event or anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the period 1991-93.
  • 7. Volcanic Ash Plume and Atmosphere Interaction Large quantity of small particles (<10 mm) increases the planetary albedo Mean Temperature on Earth can be reduced of ~0.6°C
  • 8. TAMBORA eruption (Indonesia) 1815– VEI 7 the year without summer (1816) ~160 km3 of lava/ash ejected - ash column reached >43 km In the stratosphere. - the explosion was heard 2,600 km away Global climate anomalies in North American and European weather. Agricultural crops failed and livestock died in much of the Northern Hemisphere, The worst famine of the 19th century. ~70.000 people died from starvation and disease, and ~ 10,000 were killed directly by the eruption.
  • 9. TAMBORA eruption (Indonesia) 1815– VEI 7 Strong Impact on Society in the following years the “bright sun was extinguish’d” and “morn came and went—and came, and brought no day.” Lord Byron’s “Darkness,” 10% of probability an other Tambora-like Eruption will occurr in the next 50 years (Rampino et al., 1988) For 2-3 days complete darkness in a radius of 600 km around Tambora Famine and deseases spread all around triggering typhus and cholera epidemic
  • 10. LAKI eruption (Islanda) 1783-1784 – VEI 6 • 8 month of eruption • 14 km3 of lava ejected • 120 tonns of SO2 • 15 km ash plume • 25% of islanders died Massive emission of SO2 - 23000 fatilities in England
  • 11. Santorini (Thera) – Minoan (1600 BC) Eruption – VEI 6/7 Santorini Creta Atene 30-150 m Tsunami waves devasted Crete 110 km far away Consequences: Downfall of Minoan civilization Climate effects reported in China Heavy rainstorms devastated Egypt 4 times larger than Krakatoa 30-35 km height ash plume
  • 12. The Flegrean Field Volcano – VEI 7 13 km large caldera - Main eruption 39.000 years ago - 500 Km3 of DRE lava erupted - 60 m of ash 1 million of people living inside Flegrean Field Ash-fall VEI 7 (Pyle et al.,JVGR, 2006) Distance >2500 km Area ~3x106 km2 Fallout ~40 km3 Total Vol. ~200 km3
  • 13. The Flegrean Field Volcano – VEI 7
  • 14. Mt. Vesuvius (Italy) & Risk Perception ~2 millions of people living in the area – small perception of the risk
  • 15. The Largest Eruption on Earth: TOBA VEI 8 Lago Toba Lago Toba (Indonesia) 100 km 2800 km3 of erupted lava – India and Pakistan covered by 15 cm of ash
  • 16. TOBA Super Eruption – VEI ≥8 – 75000 years  3-5°C decrease of the mean temperature (Rampino and Self, 1996)  - 2°C after 10 years, cooler mean temperature for 1000 years Human population reduced to <20000 (Huff et al., 2010) (The Genetic bottleneck )
  • 17. Civilization exists by geologic consent, subject to change without notice (Will Durant, 1935) William Ashcroft.