1. Renewable Energy :
Prospects Update
IEEEP Annual Conference
March 2013
Akhtar Ali
Pro-Plan Associates
akhtarali1949@gmail.com
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2. Renewables share in Total Energy
 Global = 17-18% O/W
 Traditional Biomass = 9%
 Other renewable = 8%
 30 Countries have a share of more than 20%
 EU & US = 12%
 Europe & Majors = 10%
 Japan = 6%
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4. Global Scenario
Share of Renewable Energy
2030 2040 2050
Conservative 10 – 15 15 -
Moderate 22 35 40
High 40% 60 80
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5. Share of Renewable Electricity
Countries Existing 2030 2050
Europe 21% 36 – 65 97 – 100
US 11% 15 – 71 30 – 90
Japan 10% 20 – 57 85 – 100
China 18% 25 – 43 50 – 92
India/Other Asia 31% 16 – 62 27 – 86
LA 54 – 86 60 – 100
Africa 50 34 – 92
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6. World Capacities of various Renewable
Technologies - Status & Projections
GW
2006 2011 2030
Hydro 800 970 1300 – 1740
Wind 74 238 920 – 2700
Solar PV 8 70 490 – 1000
CSP 0.40 1.8 40 – 140
Biomass 45 72 210 – 340
Geo thermal 9.5 11 30 – 50
Ocean 0.3 0.5 10 – 20
938+ 1362
World Total 4000
USA 900
Pakistan 25
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7. Countries Share in various REN
USA GER Spain Italy China India Japan ROW
Solar PV % 5.7 35.6 6.5 18.3 4.4 7.1
Solar Heating
Added
Capacity%
0.9 1.9 0.6 0.8 81% 1.5 8.1
Solar Heating
Total
Capacity%
1 5% 4 64.8 1.5
Wind Power
Additions MW
4.8 2 1.1 17 3
WP total
capacity MW
42 28 20 45 13
Hydro % Total 49 6
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8. Comparative features of various
Renewable Technologies
Plant Size MW Capacity
Factor %
Energy Cost US
Cents / kwh
Biomass 25 – 100 70 – 80 7.9 – 17.6
Geo thermal 1 – 100 60 – 90 5.7 – 10.7
Hydro Power Grid base 1 – 18000 30 – 60 5 – 10
Micro Hydro 0.1 – 1000 kw - 5 – 40
Ocean (Tidal) 1 – 250 23 – 29 21 – 28
Solar PV roof top 3.5 kw 10 – 20 22
Solar PV Utility 2.5 – 100 10 – 20 20
Wind Power on shore 1.5 – 3.5 20 – 40 5.21 – 16.5
Biogas CHP 0.5 – 5 MW 80 11.8 – 35.2 USD/GJ
Bio diesel 16.5 – 177
Ethanol 20 – 102/L
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9. Renewable Energy Cost Trends
Levelized cents/kWh in constant $20001
Wind
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
PVCOEcents/kWh
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
40
30
20
10
0
100
80
60
40
20
0
BiomassGeothermal Solar thermal
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
COEcents/kWh
10
8
6
4
2
0
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
15
12
9
6
3
0
Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2002.ppt)
1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data.
Updated: October 2002

10. Wind Power in Pakistan
• 2X50 MW projects already installed(Zorlu,FFC)
• Several at Planning Stage
• Total Potential Sindh-30,000 MW
• Actual Potential : 10% of Total(2500 MW)
• High Capacity Factor-31%
• Unrealistically High Tariff-16 cents per kWh
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12. Feed in Tariff in EU Region
Wind Power
5.11
7.4 7.5 7.78 7.80 8.61
10.21 10.21 10.65
11.67 11.96
13.00
17.21
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
DenmarkTurkey1
Brazil2
India(Gujrat)
USA
ChinaGerm
anySlovakia
Spain
Greece
France
CanadaNetherlands
UScents/kwh
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13. Wind Power capacity factors in selected countries
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
IndiaNetherlands
Spain
G
erm
any
China
Sweden
Denm
ark
Pakistan
Turkey
Brazil
USA
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14. Wind Is The Cheapest Power Source in
Uruguay
• The average winning price in a recent
Uruguayan auction for three 50MW wind
power projects was US $63.70 per MWh. The
cost of diesel or fuel-oil generated electricity
in Uruguay is $135 – 140 per MWh.
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15. Wind Power in Brazil is Cheaper than
Gas
• Developers of 44 wind farms bid an average of
BRZ$99.58 (US$62) per MWh – below the
average price for the two natural gas projects
(BRZ$103.26), and a hydro project (BRZ$102)
• 1 USD=2 BRZ
• http://www.greenwellfuture.com/wind_pow
er_in_brazil
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16. Comparative Solar Suitability of regions
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18. Solar PV Cells
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19. Family of PV cells and efficiencies
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21. Solar PV applications and Business
models thereof
•Residential/small off-grid
•Residential grid integrated
•Utility distributed
•Utility Power Plant
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22. Off-grid Solar PV application
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23. Grid Connected Residential PV
application
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24. Schematic layout of Solar PV
utility Power Plant
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37. Solar PV Cost & Tariff in various
countries(2013)
Capital Cost USD/W Tariff Capacity
PV Panels BoS Total Usc/kWh Factor%
India(regulated) 0.63 0.85 1.481 16.2 19
India Auctions 11.8-15.9
Europe(Germany) 0.78 0.9 1.68 17.55 10
Spain/Italy 15.6 14.8
USA(Calif,Texas,Florida) 15-17 18
California Auctions 8.92-12 19
Pakistan(proposed) 2.392 23.29 17
_______________________________________________________________________
Source: compiled by the Author(CERC India, PV-magazine, NEPRA)
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38. Comparative CAPEX for Solar PV utilities(centralized)in
various regions(2013)in USD/W
India China Europe/US
US target 2020
(Sunshot)
Total(panels+ BoS)o/w 1.481 1.35 1.681 1
Panels 0.63 0.5 0.78 0.5
BOS o/w 0.85 0.85 0.9 0.5
land Civil Works(% of BoS) 14 0.2
Racking structures-do 13 0.2
Inverter-do 7 0.18
Grid Interface/do 15 0.12
Various incl IDC/do 10 0.2
Source: compiled by the Author(CERC India, Solar Server, GTM Market Study)
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39. Comparative Solar PV Installed costs 2012-
13(USD/W)IRTPV-March2013
Europe USA China
PV Module 0.69 0.69 0.50
BoS 0.47 1.00 0.57
Owner’s
Cost(say)
0.25 0.25 0.25
Total 1.41 1.94 1.32
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42. Pakistan Projected Demand of REN(2025-50)
2013 2025 2050
Total Installed
Capacity
25000 MW 50,000 MW 150,000 MW
REN
Share(10,20,40%)
2500 10000 60,000
Wind 1500 5000 30,000
Solar PV 1500 5000 30,000
Hydro 6000 15000 30,000
Bio-Mass-gas BioCNG
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43. Pakistan Solar PV Tubes well market
•Total Tube well = 1,000,000
•o/w Diesel = 834905 – 11000 MW
• Electric = 85868 – 1104 MW
• 40% run less than 800 hrs
•Bulk of the Pumps 11-75 ft head
•75-80% of Tube Wells in Punjab
•Diesel – Number of days of Tube Well per year = 125
•Electric Number of days of Tube Well per year = 184
•10 – 15 -20 – 22 – 25 HP Avg 17
•Replacement demand = 400,000 (1994 and older)
•Average annual demand = 30,000 pumps
@ 10 kw per = 300 MW/pr
say = 100 MW (for 10,000 pumps)
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44. Item units Amount/Value
Solar PV capacity kW 15
Capacity factor hours 1600
Annual Electricity produced kWh 24000
Replacement cost of Diesel Rs/kWh 25
Annual Diesel replacement Rs/yr 600000
CAPEX Solar PV and Pump Rs 1800000
Investment Payback Period years 3
Equity @30% Rs 540000
Loan Rs 1260000
Repayment period years 10
interest rate %p.a 14
Annual Debt servicng Rs 241,559
Annual saving for first 10 yrs Rs 298,441
Equity payback Period yrs $1.81
Present Value of 25 yrs saving Rs 5,446,224
Net Present Value @10% Rs 3,646,224
IRR % 33.31
Electricity cost in1-10 years Rs/kWh 10.06
Electricity cost in11-25 years 0
Micro-economics of Solar PV in Tube-well visa-vis Diesel Engine
Case study of a 15 kW Solar Tube-well replacing diesel engine
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47. ISSUES
•T & D Losses
•High cost of Energy (circular debt)
•High Capital Costs
•Institutional Issues
•Lack of Transparency
•Lack of Competitions
•Local content /technology
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