PROPLAN ASSOCIATES

Potential and Economics of
Solar PV Tube Wells
Akhtar Ali

March 2013
Draft Working Paper
Potential and Economics of Solar PV Tube Wells
Solar PV modules prices have come down drastically low over the past two ye...
Table 1 :Micro-economics of Solar PV in Tube well visa-vis Diesel
Engine
Case study of a 15 kW Solar Tube well replacing d...


User(community) installed on-grid or Micro grid

User installed off-grid business model is already under practice due t...
Table 3 : Tube well irrigated land and potential for Solar PV
____________________________________________
 Total number ...
Table 5 :Tube wells by Horse Power Capacity and power source(2004)
Pakistan
Capacity(H.P.)
Diesel
< 10
5760
>10<15
122575
...
USE AND RENTING OUT TIME OF PRIVATE ELECTRIC & DIESEL TUBEWELLS/LIFT PUMPS DURING
LAST 12 MONTHS
Total
No. of
tubewells/
l...
Pump Head or Power Calculations;
: GPM x TDH / 3960 = WHP




GPM = Gallon per minute at the best efficiency point
TDH ...
Pv tubewell economics potential pakistan
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Pv tubewell economics potential pakistan

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Solar PV Tubewells economics and Potential in Pakistan

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Pv tubewell economics potential pakistan

  1. 1. PROPLAN ASSOCIATES Potential and Economics of Solar PV Tube Wells Akhtar Ali March 2013 Draft Working Paper
  2. 2. Potential and Economics of Solar PV Tube Wells Solar PV modules prices have come down drastically low over the past two years and the trend is expected to continue into the future. It appears that the target of USD 1 per Watt would be achieved much earlier than 2020.Recent bids in California for Solar PV ground mounted utilities have been received as low as 8 cents per kWh. Similarly in India, bids of as low as 11 cents per kWh have been received. It is predicted that Solar PV mat compete with conventional electrical sources by 2017.Even now, Solar PV is cheaper than Diesel based applications in day time, where storage requirement is not there. The total potential of Solar PV has been estimated at 6- 8000 MW for about one million existing Diesel and electricity operated tube wells. If the entire potential is to be implemented, it will take 10 years at the rate of 6-800 MW (60-80,000 pumps) of installations per year. Even if we make allowance for 40% of tube well capacity to be non-operating or operating under capacity, there would still be a potential of some 4800 MW, out of which PEPCO confirms electrical tube wells to be consuming 2-3000 MW. One important point to be noted is that Diesel Tube wells operate for 150-200 days per year on the average. As Diesel Engines are comparatively cheap and Diesel oil being expensive, there is pressure on the user to minimize its use. In case of Solar Pumps, there would be pressure for maximization of usage, as all cost is sunk cost. This means that 2kW of Diesel Capacity may be replaced by 1 kW Solar PV. The typical HP range is 5, 10,15,20,22 and 25 H.P., with an average of 17 H.P. Also the most common water table depth is between 20 and 50 ft mostly in Punjab. In Balochistan, however, the depth can go as much as 200 ft. Tube Wells appear to be the readiest application of Solar PV; as there are a large number of tube wells, 1 million plus; 70-80% of which run on Diesel Engines. Diesel based electricity at currently high oil prices cost around 25 cents per kWh. On the other hand (see table ),Solar PV ,based on 1600 hours of operations per year, costs around 10 cents per kWh, as per market prices as these prevail for Chinese origin systems. The payback period for Solar PV tube wells has been estimated at about 3 years. Noting this, the market of Solar PV tube Wells has already picked up without any support or incentives. PV Tube wells system (solar panels, controls and submersible DC pump)of various capacities, ranging from 4 kW to 10-15 kW are being marketed at a price range of )0.4 to 1.5 Million Rs.
  3. 3. Table 1 :Micro-economics of Solar PV in Tube well visa-vis Diesel Engine Case study of a 15 kW Solar Tube well replacing diesel engine Item units Amount/Value Solar PV capacity kW 15 Capacity factor hours 1600 Annual Electricity produced kWh 24000 Replacement cost of Diesel Rs/kWh 25 Annual Diesel replacement Rs/yr 600000 CAPEX Solar PV and Pump Rs 1800000 Investment Payback Period years 3 Equity @30% Rs 540000 Loan Rs 1260000 Repayment period years 10 interest rate %p.a 14 Annual Debt servicng Rs $241,559 Annual saving for first 10 yrs Rs $298,441 Equity payback Period yrs $1.81 Present Value of 25 yrs saving Rs $5,446,224 Net Present Value @10% Rs $3,646,224 IRR % 33.31 Electricity cost in1-10 years Electricity cost in11-25 years Rs/kWh $10.06 0 At a micro level, it has been estimated that every two Acres of land requires on the average 1 KW of Solar pumping power. Keeping in view, the capital requirements, one would expect that initially very large farm owners-cultivators would go for solar, installing several pumps each. At a mean level, a 20-Acre farm would require 10 kW system costing around Rs.1.2 Million currently. A 5 Acre farm would require Rs 0.3 Million. The prices are expected to go down at about 7-10 percent per year for several years. In search of Business Models Conversion of Electric Tube Wells may partly replace expensive oil based electricity generation by IPPs and GENCOs, while conversion of Diesel Tube Wells saves oil and refining capacity directly. A number of business models may be examined to meet this demand;  User installed off-grid  Utility installed on-grid or Micro grid
  4. 4.  User(community) installed on-grid or Micro grid User installed off-grid business model is already under practice due to high prices of Diesel and may continue to keep capturing large land owners market segment. It is an open question whether our grid system would be able to operate in two way system integrating small PV inputs of 10-20 kW. Utilities or Local governments may be able to install micro grids(AC or DC) just to share Solar PV electricity generated by user systems. The concept of micro grids is fast expanding specially for remote application. In developing countries, Micro Grid may be installed even in close by locations for making use of and sharing user generated electricity. Alternatively, excess water extracted through continuous daylight operation of Solar PV tube wells, can be diverted to water courses and canals. In the U.S. irrigation districts have been created which operate like a legal entity. Irrigation districts are installing Solar PV tube wells and distributing water. In Pakistan, the equivalent may be the Water Users Associations. The task being huge and economics being so attractive, all possible institutional arrangements and business models may be put into use. Table 2 : Possible Business Models Solar PV tube Wells         User Financed off grid Leasing or agricultural loan schemes Third Party PPA/WPA Utility owned on or off-grid(micro-grid) Community owned /Water users Association] Irrigation district(Water distribution) Tube well plus other uses(micro-grid) Water Markets Source:Author
  5. 5. Table 3 : Tube well irrigated land and potential for Solar PV ____________________________________________  Total number of Farms+8.26 Million  Total Farm Area =52.91 Million Acre  Total Cultivated Area=42.6 Million Acre  o/w irrigated by canal and tube wells both=13.89 Million Acre  and irrigated by tube wells only=6.08 Million Acres  Estimated coverage of Tube wells=12 Million Acre  @0.5 kW per acre, Solar PV potential=6000 MW ________________________________________________ Author’s Estimate, data source; Agricultural Census of Pakistan 2010 Table 4 :Existing Tube Well Statistics and Solar PV Potential          Total number of Tube Wells = 1 million plus o/w Diesel based =834905(11000 MW) and Electric =250,000(3000 MW) Average HP per Tube Well=17 H.P.(12.68 kW) Typical Capacities:10,15,20,22,25 HP Diesel, number of days of operation=125 days per year Electric, number of days of operations=184 days per year Solar PV ,optimal number of days of operation=300 days per year Estimated number of obsolete pumps(installed before1994)=400,000  Estimated Solar PV demand for 300 days of operations=8000 MW  Assumed Target 50% conversion in 10 years=4000 MW  Yearly conversion =400 MW(40,000 solar pumps) ________________________________________________ Author’s Estimate, data source; Agricultural Census of Pakistan 2010;Agricultural Machinery Census
  6. 6. Table 5 :Tube wells by Horse Power Capacity and power source(2004) Pakistan Capacity(H.P.) Diesel < 10 5760 >10<15 122575 >15<20 586097 >20<22 13165 >22<24 14107 >25 93207 Total 834911 RoG %p.a.upto2004 7% Wt.Avg.HP 18 Provincial Distribution Punjab 697156 Sindh 64128 KpK 4223 Balochistan 11872 Total 777379 http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/agriculture_statistics/publications/Agricultural_Statistics_ of_Pakistan_201011/t PRIVATE TUBEWELLS & LIFT PUMPS BY PURPOSE OF INSTALLATION Total number of tubewells/ lift pumps Administrative Unit/ Type of Tube-Wells Punjab: Tubewells Lift Pumps Sindh: Tubewells Lift pumps KPK: Tubewells Lift Pumps Balochistan: Tubewells Lift Pumps Pakistan: Tubewells Lift Pumps Number of Tubewells/Lift pumps by Purpose of Installation Supplementing Irrigation of Replacement of Canal water Barani/Sailaba land wells/karezes Number % of Number % of Number % of Total Total Total 829437 5415 587146 731 70.78 13.50 194765 3811 23.48 70.37 57681 914 6.95 16.87 38330 7809 34125 6877 89.02 88.06 4055 713 10.57 9.13 283 260 0.73 3.32 18705 2186 3289 379 17.58 17.33 14630 1551 78.21 70.95 925 263 4.94 12.03 19172 1134 637 170 3.32 14.99 9912 767 51.70 67.63 9296 203 48.48 17.90 905644 16544 625197 8157 69.03 49.30 223362 6842 24.66 41.35 68185 1640 7.52 9.91 . Source : Pakistan Agricultural Machinery Census - 2004.
  7. 7. USE AND RENTING OUT TIME OF PRIVATE ELECTRIC & DIESEL TUBEWELLS/LIFT PUMPS DURING LAST 12 MONTHS Total No. of tubewells/ lift pumps Administrative Unit Punjab: Electric Diesel Sindh: Electric Diesel KPK: Electric Diesel Balochistan: Electric Diesel Pakistan: Electric Diesel Average use of time Days Hours per per year day Renting out time Number of Average Average tubewells/ Hours Hourly lift pumps rented rate per year (Rs.) 61931 771642 183 124 6 5 22174 143308 619 315 110 114 3449 42691 151 123 7 6 513 6502 468 311 112 111 9829 11020 152 108 4 5 2350 2583 431 380 106 122 10659 9552 227 189 7 5 681 611 532 259 120 121 85868 834905 184 125 6 5 25718 153004 597 316 110 114 Source : Pakistan Agricultural Machinery Census - 2004. DIESEL TUBEWELLS BY TYPE OF PUMP GOVERNMENT WELL CENTRITURWELL CENTRIWITH FUGAL BINE WITH FUGAL PUMP PUMP 4 5 6 7 8 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT CENTRIFUGAL TOTAL TURBINE 1 2 3 PAKISTAN 784006 21572 12199 277 120 75 783729 21452 12124 N.W.F.PROVINCE PUNJAB PROVINCE SINDH PROVINCE BALOCHISTAN PROVINCE 2957 744303 32763 3983 2920 15501 915 2236 2850 5196 1556 2597 6 111 139 21 14 25 81 2 13 60 2951 744192 32624 3962 2906 15476 915 2155 2848 5183 1556 2537 Water Table PRESENT DEPTH OF WATER TABLE 1 TOTAL * TUBEWELLS 2 PAKISTAN UPTO 10 FEET 22466 11 TO 20 FEET 125382 21 TO 30 FEET 224027 31 TO 40 FEET 188707 41 TO 50 FEET 116750 51 TO 75 FEET 94999 76 TO 100 FEET 59965 101 TO 150 FEET 31053 151 TO 200 FEET 11053 201 FEET AND ABOVE 12378 PRIVATE TURWELL BINE WITH PUMP 9 10
  8. 8. Pump Head or Power Calculations; : GPM x TDH / 3960 = WHP    GPM = Gallon per minute at the best efficiency point TDH = Total discharge head (measured in feet), as shown on the pump curve ; at the best efficiency point) WHP = Water horse power or the amount of horse power the pump is generating. Doing the same thing in the metric system we would get:   M3/ HR = Cubic meters per hour of capacity as measured at the best efficiency point on the pump curve. TDH = Total discharge head, in meters, at the best efficiency point. WKW = Water kilowatts of power being generated by the pump PV Panel Selection 1. The power of solar panel=power of pump X 1.3, the voltage of solar panel=the voltage of pump, the controller should be matched Pump kW calculations Pump#1 Daily Consumption Number of hours per day Hourly Flow Dynamic Head Efficiency Motor Power Reqd CM/d hrs/d CM/hr Meters % KW 1000 8 125 10 60 5.79 Pump#2 Pump#3 Pump#4 1500 2000 2500 8 8 8 187.5 250 312.5 20 20 15 60 60 60 17.36 23.15 21.70

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