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Pakistan Solar pv tubewell potential and economics

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Potential and economics of Solar Irrigation Pumps in Pakistan

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Pakistan Solar pv tubewell potential and economics

  1. 1. Solar PV Tube Well Potential and Economics March 2013 Akhtar Ali Proplan Associates akhtarali1949@gmail.com 1
  2. 2. Table 1 : Tube well irrigated land and potential for Solar PV • • • • • • • • • ___________________________________________________ Total number of Farms+8.26 Million Total Farm Area =52.91 Million Acre Total Cultivated Area=42.6 Million Acre o/w irrigated by canal and tube wells both=13.89 Million Acre and irrigated by tube wells only=6.08 Million Acres Estimated coverage of Tube wells=12 Million Acre @0.5 kW per acre, Solar PV potential=6000 MW _______________________________________________________ __ • Author’s Estimate, data source; Agricultural Census of Pakistan 2010 • 2
  3. 3. Table 2 :Existing Tube Well Statistics and Solar PV Potential • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Total number of Tube Wells = 1 million plus o/w Diesel based =834905(11000 MW) and Electric =250,000(3000 MW) Average HP per Tube Well=17 H.P.(12.68 kW) Typical Capacities:10,15,20,22,25 HP Diesel, number of days of operation=125 days per year Electric, number of days of operations=184 days per year Solar PV ,optimal number of days of operation=300 days per year Estimated number of obsolete pumps(installed before1994)=400,000 Estimated Solar PV demand for 300 days of operations=8000 MW Assumed Target 50% conversion in 10 years=4000 MW Yearly conversion =400 MW(40,000 solar pumps) ___________________________________________________________________ Author’s Estimate, data source; Agricultural Census of Pakistan 2010;Agricultural Machinery Census 2004 • • 3
  4. 4. Micro-economics of Solar PV in Tube well visa-vis Diesel Engine Case study of a 15 kW Solar Tube well replacing diesel engine Item units Amount/Value Solar PV capacity kW 15 Capacity factor hours 1600 Annual Electricity produced kWh 24000 Replacement cost of Diesel Rs/kWh 25 Annual Diesel replacement Rs/yr 600000 CAPEX Solar PV and Pump Rs 1800000 Investment Payback Period years 3 Equity @30% Rs 540000 Loan Rs 1260000 Repayment period years 10 interest rate %p.a 14 Annual Debt servicng Rs $241,559 Annual saving for first 10 yrs Rs $298,441 Equity payback Period yrs $1.81 Present Value of 25 yrs saving Rs $5,446,224 Net Present Value @10% Rs $3,646,224 IRR % 33.31 Electricity cost in1-10 years Rs/kWh $10.06 4
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  9. 9. Pump Head or Power Calculations; • : GPM x TDH / 3960 = WHP • GPM = Gallon per minute at the best efficiency point • TDH = Total discharge head (measured in feet), as shown on the pump curve ; at the best efficiency point) • WHP = Water horse power or the amount of horse power the pump is generating. • Doing the same thing in the metric system we would get: • M3/ HR = Cubic meters per hour of capacity as measured at the best efficiency point on the pump curve. • TDH = Total discharge head, in meters, at the best efficiency point. • WKW = Water kilowatts of power being generated by the pump • Divide Water Watts by Pump Efficiency 9
  10. 10. PV Panel Selection • The power of solar panel=power of pump X 1.3 • the voltage of solar panel=the voltage of pump • the controller should be matched 10
  11. 11. Pump kW calculations and PV Panels Pump#1 Daily Consumption Pump#2 Pump#3 Pump#4 CM/d 1000 500 750 250 Number of hours per day hrs/d 8 8 8 8 Hourly Flow CM/hr 125 62.5 93.75 31.25 Dynmic Head Meters 10 20 20 15 Efficiency % 60 60 60 60 Motor Power Reqd KW 5.79 5.79 8.68 2.17 PV Panel Power kW 7.52 7.52 11.28 2.82 Number of Panels@200 Watt pcs 38 38 56 14 11
  12. 12. Table :Tubewells by HorsePower Capacity and power source(2004) Pakistan Capacity(H.P.) Diesel Electric < 10 5760 20340 >10<15 122575 27793 >15<20 586097 20363 >20<22 13165 391 >22<24 14107 289 >25 93207 16701 Total 834911 85877 RoG %p.a.upto2004 7% 2.96% Wt.Avg.HP 18 14 Provincial Distribution Punjab 697156 109097 Sindh 64128 31793 KpK 4223 12335 Balochistan 11872 23716 Total 777379 176941 Total 26100 150368 606460 13556 14396 109908 920788 6.12% 17 806253 95921 16558 35588 954320 12
  13. 13. USE AND RENTING OUT TIME OF PRIVATE ELECTRIC & DIESEL TUBEWELLS/LIFT PUMPS DURING LAST 12 MONTHS Average use of time Total Administrative No. of Days Hours Unit tubewells/ per per lift pumps year day Punjab: Electric Diesel Sindh: Electric Diesel KPK: Electric Diesel Balochistan: Electric Diesel Pakistan: Electric Diesel Renting out time Number Average of Average tubewells/ Hours Hourly lift pumps rented rate per year (Rs.) 61931 771642 183 124 6 5 22174 143308 619 315 110 114 3449 42691 151 123 7 6 513 6502 468 311 112 111 9829 11020 152 108 4 5 2350 2583 431 380 106 122 10659 9552 227 189 7 5 681 611 532 259 120 121 85868 834905 184 125 6 5 25718 153004 597 316 110 114 13
  14. 14. PRIVATE TUBEWELLS & LIFT PUMPS BY PURPOSE OF INSTALLATION Source : Pakistan Agricultural Machinery Census - 2004. Number of Tubewells/Lift pumps by Purpose of Installation Replacement of Supplementing Irrigation of Barani/Sailaba Unit/ Type of tubewells/ Canal water land wells/karezes r Tube-Wells lift pumps Number % of Number % of Numbe % of Total Total Total Total Administrativ number of e Punjab: Tubewells Lift Pumps Sindh: Tubewells Lift pumps KPK: Tubewells Lift Pumps Balochistan: Tubewells Lift Pumps Pakistan: Tubewells Lift Pumps 829437 5415 . 38330 7809 587146 731 70.78 13.50 194765 3811 23.48 70.37 57681 6.95 914 16.87 34125 6877 89.02 88.06 4055 713 10.57 9.13 283 0.73 260 3.32 18705 2186 3289 379 17.58 17.33 14630 1551 78.21 70.95 925 4.94 263 12.03 19172 1134 637 170 3.32 14.99 9912 767 51.70 67.63 9296 48.48 203 17.90 905644 16544 625197 8157 69.03 49.30 223362 6842 24.66 41.35 68185 7.52 1640 9.91 14
  15. 15. DIESEL TUBEWELLS BY TYPE OF PUMP TABLE NO 57. TOT AL ADMINISTRATIVE CENT RIUNIT FUGAL GOVERN MENT TUR- WELL CENT CENT RITUR- WELL RITUR- WELL BINE WITH FUGAL BINE WITH FUGAL BINE WITH PUMP 1 PAKISTAN N.W.F.PROVINCE 2 3 4 784006 21572 12199 PUMP 5 6 7 277 120 2920 2850 6 14 PUNJAB PROVINCE 744303 15501 5196 111 25 SINDH PROVINCE BALOCHISTAN PROVINCE 2957 PRIVATE 32763 915 1556 139 - 3983 2236 2597 21 81 PUMP 8 9 10 75783729 21452 12124 2 2951 2906 2848 13744192 15476 5183 - 32624 60 3962 915 1556 2155 2537 15
  16. 16. PRESENT DEPTH OF WATER TABLE 1 PAKISTAN UPTO 10 FEET 11 TO 20 FEET 21 TO 30 FEET 31 TO 40 FEET 41 TO 50 FEET 51 TO 75 FEET 76 TO 100 FEET 10 1 TO 150 FEET 15 1 TO 200 FEET 201 FEET AND ABOVE TOTAL * TUBEWELLS 2 22466 125382 224027 188707 116750 94999 59965 31053 11053 12378 16
  17. 17. APPENDIX INDIAN SOLAR PV TUBE WELL SPECS MNRE INDIA 17
  18. 18. Description Model I Solar PV 1200 Wp array Model II 1800 Wp Motor pump Submersible set type electronic with controller Max. Model III 3000 Wp with Submersible Model IV 4800 Wp Submersible with Submersible electronic controller controller controller 50 metres total 50 Metres electronic electronic 80 Metres with 80 Metres dynamic head Module MS hot dipped MS hot dipped MS hot dipped MS hot dipped mounting galvanised, three galvanised, galvanised, three galvanised, three structure times manual three times times manual times manual tracking facilities manual tracking tracking facilities tracking facilities 200 sq. Metres facilities Required 45 Sq. Metres 75 sq. Metres 120 sq. Metres Water 34,000 Litres per 51,000 litres per 51,000 Output * day from a shadow free area head metres of total day from a total 30 head metres of day litres from a per 82,000 total day 30 head of 50 metres litres from a per total head of 50 metres 18
  19. 19. Description Model-I Model-II Model-III Solar PV array 900 Wp 1800 Wp 2700 Wp Motor pump set type Motor capacity Centrifugal DC monoblock 1 HP Centrifugal DC monoblock 2 HP Centrifugal DC monoblock 3 HP Operating voltage Suction Head 60 V DC (nominal) 60 V DC (nominal) 90 V DC (nominal) 7 metres 7 metres 7 metres Max. total dynamic head 10 metres 15 metres 25 metres Module MS hot dipped MS hot dipped MS hot dipped mounting galvanised, three times galvanised, three galvanised, three structure manual tracking times manual times manual facilities tracking facilities tracking facilities 30 sq. Metres 75 sq. Metres 120 sq. Metres Required shadow free area Water Output * 77,000 litres per day 154,000 litres per 115,000 litres per from a total head day from a total head day from a total head 19 of 10 metres of 10 metres of 20 metres
  20. 20. Mounting Structure • The modules support structure shall be mild steel, hot dipped galvanized (120 micron) iron for holding the PV modules. The size of angle iron should not be less than 50x50x5 mm. • • Each panel frame structure shall be so fabricated as to be grouted on ground or roof on its legs. It will withstand severe cyclone/ storm with the speed of 150 Km/Hr. • • Each panel frame structure shall have provision to adjust its angle of inclination to the horizontal between 10 to 40 degrees with a step of 10 degree, so that the inclination can be adjusted at the specified tilt angle whenever required. 20
  21. 21. Motor Pump type • • • • I. II. III. IV. Surface mounted DC motor pump-set Submersible DC motor pump set Submersible AC motor pump set Floating DC motor pump set 21
  22. 22. PV Panel Specs • • • • • • Modules supplied with the SPV water pumping systems should have certificate as per IEC 61215 specifications or equivalent National or International/ Standards. Modules must qualify to IEC 61730 Part I and II for safety qualification testing. The efficiency of the PV modules should be minimum 13% and fill factor should be more than 70%. – The terminal box on the module should have a provision for “Opening” for replacing the cable, if required. • – Each PV module must use a RF identification tag (RFID), which must contain the following information: • Name of the manufacturer of PV Module • Model or Type Number • Serial Number • Month and year of the manufacture • I-V curve for the module • Peak Wattage of the module at 16.4 volts • Im, Vm and FF for the module • Unique Serial No and Model No of the module 22
  23. 23. APPENDIX 23
  24. 24. Pakistan Solar Insolation Map 24
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