Pakistan energy scenario , a case for renewable energy

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This is a presentation which I delivered at a conference. The theme is to point out the crisis in the power sector in Pakistan. The renewable energy development at the Global level to show that wind and solar have become viable and mature technologically. It shows Pakistan's potential and the way forward. There will be many more presentations on the subject to deal with various areas in more detail.

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Pakistan energy scenario , a case for renewable energy

  1. 1. A case for renewable energy by Kashif Mateen Ansari Kashif Mateen Ansari 1
  2. 2.       What are the organisations in the power sector What is the impact of power crisis on businesses The new technologies in power generation Future outlook And a conclusion He came back with this Kashif Mateen Ansari 2
  3. 3.  Wapda: Water and Power Disruption Authority Kashif Mateen Ansari 3
  4. 4. If You want to get rich: get into new business of Candles, Generators, UPS Kashif Mateen Ansari 4
  5. 5. New Technology Old Technology Kashif Mateen Ansari 5
  6. 6. Some where in the Future Kashif Mateen Ansari 6
  7. 7. Kashif Mateen Ansari 7
  8. 8. PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR Kashif Mateen Ansari 8
  9. 9. Total generation in Pakistan as on December 2012 was 23,538 MW. On the basis of source, it is subdivided as    Thermal 16,035 MW (68.12%) Hydroelectricity 6,716 MW (28.53%) Nuclear 787 MW (3.34%) Kashif Mateen Ansari 9
  10. 10. Renewable Nuclear, 3.34% 0.01% Hydro electricity 29% Thermal, 68.12% Kashif Mateen Ansari 10
  11. 11. Total electricity generation in Pakistan for the year 2012 SOURCE GENERATION (GWh) % of total Oil 33568.48 35.2 Hydel 28514.13 29.9 Gas 27655.85 29.0 Nuclear & Imported 5531.17 5.8 Coal 95.3650 0.1 Source: IPPs, PAEC, KESC & WAPDA Kashif Mateen Ansari 11
  12. 12. 0% 6% Oil 35% 29% Hydel Gas Nuclear & Imported 30% Coal Source: IPPs, PAEC, KESC & WAPDA Kashif Mateen Ansari 12
  13. 13.  Total consumption of electricity for the year 2012 SECTOR CONSUMPTION (GWh) % OF TOTAL Domestic 35617.104 46.4 Industrial 21800.124 28.4 Agriculture 8520.471 11.1 Commercial 5757.075 7.5 Bulk Supplies 4528.899 5.9 St. Light & other Auxiliaries 537.327 0.7 Kashif Mateen Ansari 13
  14. 14. 1% 8% 11% Domestic 6% Industrial 46% Agriculture Commercial 28% Bulk Supplies St. Light & other Auxiliaries Kashif Mateen Ansari 14
  15. 15. The Supply and Demand Gap Kashif Mateen Ansari 15
  16. 16. 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Planned Generation 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Projected Demand Kashif Mateen Ansari 16
  17. 17. 3,500 3,000 MW 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Supply 2,371 2,371 2,419 2,437 2,737 Demand 2,564 2,692 2,827 2,968 3,116 Kashif Mateen Ansari 17
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  19. 19.   A woman rang up to the doctor nervously and said, Dr sahab my husband has been struck with electricity. Dr replied you should be thankful to God that at least you have The Electricity Kashif Mateen Ansari 19
  20. 20. The Energy Consumption (kWh per capita) in Pakistan for the years 2009-2011 was: ◦ 2009 : 450 ◦ 2010 : 458 ◦ 2011 : 449 This is amongst one of the lowest in the developing economies. Source : Kashif Mateen Ansari Bank – Data Bank World 20
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  23. 23. RENEWABLE ENERGY AS A VIABLE POWER SOURCE Kashif Mateen Ansari 23
  24. 24. 47.6 30.2 29.7 22.5 20 18.9 16.3 16.2 16 12 Denmark Portugal Iceland Spain New Zealand Germany Italy Ireland Finland Estonia Kashif Mateen Ansari 24
  25. 25. RANK COUNTRY TERRA –WATT-HOUR / YEAR 1 China 797.4 - European Union 699.3 2 United States 520.1 3 Brazil 459.2 4 Canada 399.1 5 Russia 166.6 6 India 162 7 Germany 136.1 8 Norway 121.4 9 Japan 116.4 10 Italy 89.759 Kashif Mateen Ansari 25
  26. 26. WIND ENERGY AS A POWER SOURCE Kashif Mateen Ansari 26
  27. 27. Why Wind power so popular because it has a lot of fans. Kashif Mateen Ansari 27
  28. 28.  In the year 2012, the worldwide wind capacity reached 282’275 megawatt. Kashif Mateen Ansari 28
  29. 29. Top 10 countries by wind power capacity (end of 2012) Country China United States Germany Spain India UK Italy France Canada Portugal Rest of world World Total New 2012 Capacity (MW) Wind power Total capacity (MW) % world total 12,960 13,124 2,145 1,122 2,336 1,897 1,273 757 935 145 6,737 44,799Mw 75,324 60,007 31,308 22,796 18,421 8,845 8,144 7,564 6,200 4,525 39,853 282,587Mw 26.7 21.2 11.1 8.1 6.5 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.2 1.6 14.1 100 Kashif Mateen Ansari 29
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  32. 32. Denmark – a case in point • 30% power is generated through Wind. • Plans to take it up to 50% by 2020. Kashif Mateen Ansari 32
  33. 33.  India -18,000 MWs(5th position globally)  Mexico - 1300MWs Romania - 1905 MWs Cyprus – 147 MWs   Kashif Mateen Ansari 33
  34. 34. Wind Energy Outlook Globally According to Global Wind Energy Council  Global Wind Power Market Could Triple by 2020  Wind power could supply up to 12% of global electricity by 2020  Create 1.4 million new jobs  Reduce CO2 emissions by more than 1.5 billion tons per year  Wind power could generate up to 18% of world’s electricity by 2050 compared with 2.6% today  At the end of 2012, the total installed capacity has risen to 282 GW as compared to 240GW by end of 2011 Kashif Mateen Ansari 34
  35. 35. Source: USAID, 2007 35 Kashif Mateen Ansari 35
  36. 36. Source: USAID, 2007 36 Kashif Mateen Ansari 36
  37. 37.  AEDB has allocated land to 16 IPPs for installing 50 MW wind power plants in Gharo – Keti Bandar and Jhimpir Wind corridors.  This equals a total wind power output of 800 MW.  Various Incentives have also been proposed for the wind sector that are discussed later. Kashif Mateen Ansari 37
  38. 38. SOLAR POWER AS AN ENERGY SOURCE Kashif Mateen Ansari 38
  39. 39.  Solar photovoltaic has reached a total global capacity of 102,156 MW at the end of 2012.  The total power output of the world’s PV capacity in a calendar year is equal to 110 billion kWh of electricity.  An exponential increase has been observed in Solar PV capacity in last 10 years. Kashif Mateen Ansari 39
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  42. 42.  National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), USA in collaboration with USAID, PMD and AEDB has indicated that the theoretical solar energy potential for power generation in Pakistan is approximately 2.9 million MW.  Average solar global insolation of 5–7 kWh/m2/day exists over more than 95% of its area with persistence factor of over 85%. Kashif Mateen Ansari 42
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  44. 44. QUAID E AZAM SOLAR PARK (QASP)CHOLISTAN -CHARACTERISTICS  Government has initiated a project of QASP in Punjab.  The area of QASP is about 11,000 acres with 1000 MW solar energy generation capacity.  The land requirement for generation of 1 MW electricity is 5 acres.  5,000 acres land will be reserved for 1000 MW energy production.  The 20 farms consisting of 250 acres area of each farm will be developed.  Capacity of each farm will be 50 MW. Kashif Mateen Ansari 44
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  46. 46. Developing New Projects Incentives ?? Kashif Mateen Ansari 46
  47. 47.    After an electrician finished repairing some faulty wiring in my home he handed down the bill. “Ten Thousand Rs! For an hour's work?'' I almost shouted, ''That's ridiculous! Why I'm a project developer and I don't charge that much.'' To which the electrician replied, ''Funny, when I was project developer I didn't either!'' Kashif Mateen Ansari 47
  48. 48. Incentives For Renewable Energy Market Financial • No customs duty or sale tax • Exemption from income tax, including turnover rate tax and withholding tax on imports • Repatriation of equity along with dividends freely allowed • Non-Muslims and non-residents shall be exempted from payment of Zakat on dividends paid by the company. • Implementation Agreement signed by Government of Pakistan, Sovereign Guarantee • Government support for project applications for Carbon Credits Government • Land lease for 25 years through Land Sub-Lease Agreement of Pakistan Power Purchaser • • • • Mandatory Purchase of Electricity for 20 years Bonus payment for power production above benchmark energy Provision for Wheeling the generated energy RE Resource Variability Risk borne by power purchaser Kashif Mateen Ansari 48
  49. 49. One of the major means of increasing energy generation and reducing the bulk energy production requirements of the Government is to introduce small scale Grid-tied Solar Technology to the Domestic consumer and SMEs. (Democratization of Energy) This can be achieved through the introduction of:  Domestic Solar Power (Hybrid) Technologies  Solar Appliances Kashif Mateen Ansari 49
  50. 50. Domestic Solar power (PV-based) systems can be installed with:  A production meter, which monitors the total amount of electricity produced by domestic solar array,  A net meter, which enables the domestic consumer to reduce his demand from the electric utility and sell excess supply back when the system generates more than required capacity.  In this way, the consumers are liberated of the capital investments required in storage products.  The result is an increase in the local electricity generation with a corresponding decrease in the Government’s energy demands. Kashif Mateen Ansari 50
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  52. 52.        Solar cookers Solar road studs Solar street lights Solar traffic lights Solar-powered agricultural pumps Solar geysers Solar water heaters Spreading awareness about these devices and the introduction of subsidies and incentives on them can go a great way in reducing the government energy expenditures. Kashif Mateen Ansari 52
  53. 53. According to a study, Pakistan has identified cumulative potential to generate 3.2 million MW from renewable energy resources including:       340,000 MW from wind 2.9 million MW from solar 50,000 MW from hydro (large) 3,100 MW from hydro (small) 1,800 MW from biogases cogeneration 500 MW from waste. Kashif Mateen Ansari 53
  54. 54.  Load shedding is imposing a huge cost on the economy to the tune of Rs 1272 billion in 2011-12, equivalent to over 6 percent of the economy. (Institute of Public Policy, BNU, Lahore).  This implies that the growth rate of the economy could have been 1.5 percent higher had there been no load shedding.  This is why the energy shortage issue needs to be addressed in a timely and efficient manner if Pakistan is to be put on the road to progress.  Special attention needs to be paid towards the renewable sector to cater for the energy shortfall.  Installation of more Wind IPPs in the wind corridor should be encouraged.  Energy production should be democratized through residential based Solar generation to reduce the burden on the demand side and to include common people in the resolution of Energy Crisis. Kashif Mateen Ansari 54
  55. 55.            Sixth Annual Report – Institute of Public Policy, BNU, Lahore Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan – Pakistan Energy Yearbook (2012) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) wind maps for wind and solar potential of Pakistan Global Market Outlook for photovoltaics (2013-2017) – European Photovoltaic Industry Association Global Wind Report 2012 – Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) Enerdata – Global Energy Statistical Yearbook World Bank (Data Bank) - http://data.worldbank.org/ National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) - http://www.nepra.org.pk/industryreports.htm Pakistan Renewable Energy Society - http://www.pres.org.pk/category/reaepakistan/re-scenario/ Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) - http://www.aedb.org/REPolicy.htm Petroleum Institute of Pakistan http://www.iepkarachi.org.pk/IEP%20Energy%20Presentation%2030%20Jan%2013-Hasan%20Nawab.pdf Kashif Mateen Ansari 55
  56. 56. Thank you Kashif Mateen Ansari 56

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