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Transitioning Buildings, Cities,
States, and Countries to 100%
Clean, Renewable Energy For All
Purposes
Mark Z. Jacobson People’s Action for Clean Energy
Stanford University Hartford, Connecticut
November 8, 2018
What’s the Problem? Why act Quickly?
Fossil-fuel + biofuel air pollution cause 4-7 mil. premature air pollution deaths
per year worldwide costing ~$20-25 trillion/year
Global warming due to world emissions will cost ~$25-30 trillion per year by
2050.
Fossil fuels are limited resources, and their continued use must increase
energy prices and economic, political, and social instability
Drastic problems require immediate solutions.
ELECTRICITY TRANSPORTATION HEATING/COOLING INDUSTRY
Wind Battery-electric Electric heat pumps Electric arc furnaces
Solar PV/CSP HFC-BE hybrids Solar water preheat Induction furnaces
Geothermal Dielectric heating
Hydro
Tidal/Wave
Wind, Water, Solar (WWS) Solution
Electrify or Provide Direct Heat For All Sectors and Provide
the Electricity and Heat with 100% WWS
Industrial Heat: Replace Fossils With
Electricity
ElectricArc Furnace
Electric Induction Furnace
Tesla semi electric
Hydrogen fuel cell–electric hybrid busProtera electric bus
Nikola One semi hydrogen fuel cell
Electric & Hydrogen Fuel Cell Trucks and Buses
7
0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.750.751.001.251.501.75
Mass Ratio
Battery Electric : Fossil Fuel
Land-Based Vehicle Type
Volume Ratio
Battery Electric : Fossil Fuel
M1 Abrams
M2 Bradley
M113 APC
M978 HEMTT
M1078 FMTV
M1151 HMMWV
M1257 Stryker
RG-33L
What if we Converted the Army’s Land-Based Vehicle Fleet to
Battery Electric Vehicles Using 2020 Target Technology?
* Bars show difference in equivalency calculations to gross vs. curb vehicle weight of FF variant
(i.e. delta could be used to improve the ratio but would decrease payload capacity of new variant)
8
0.850.900.951.001.05 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05
Mass Ratio
Hydrogen Fuel Cell : Fossil Fuel
Land-Based Vehicle Type
Volume Ratio
Hydrogen Fuel Cell : Fossil Fuel
M1 Abrams
M2 Bradley
M113 APC
M978 HEMTT
M1078 FMTV
M1151 HMMWV
M1257 Stryker
RG-33L
What if we Converted the Army’s Land-Based Vehicle Fleet to
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Using 2020 Target Technology?
* Bars show difference in equivalency calculations to gross vs. curb vehicle weight of FF variant
(i.e. delta could be used to improve the ratio but would decrease payload capacity of new variant)
Planes: Replace Jet Fuel With Batteries & Hydrogen
Fuel Cells
Cryogenic hydrogen aircraft
Hydrogen fuel cell aircraft
Battery electric aircraft
Replace Helicopters With Vertical Take-Off and Landing
Aircraft
Pipistrel VTOL aircraft
Electric lift
Electric Appliances
Electric lawn mower Electric leaf blower
Provide More Electricity With Floating
Offshore Wind and PV
ELECTRICITY HEATING/COOLING OTHER
CSP with storage Water Hydrogen for transport
Pumped hydro Ice Demand-response
Existing hydroelectric Rocks in soil
Batteries
Types of Storage for a 100% WWS System
Nighttime Storage in Ice for Daytime Air Cooling
https://www.torontohydro.com/sites/electricsystem/electricityconservation/businessconservation/Pages/IceBearEnergyStoragePilot.aspx
Seasonal Heat Storage in Underground Rocks
Okotoks, Canada
http://www.sustainapedia.com/drake-landing-solar-community/ https://www.leidos.com/project/north-america’s-first- Mark Z. Jacobson (2015) right
Stanford Boilers/Chillers & Heat/Cold Demand For 1 Year
https://sustainable.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/SESI_Condensed_factsheet_0.pdf
Transitioning an Individual Home to Run
on WWS Electricity/Storage and No Gas
Ductless Mini-Split Electric Heat Pump Air Heater /
Air Conditioner
M.Z. Jacobson
Electric Heat Pump Water Heater
Photo by M.Z. Jacobson
Electric Induction Cooktop
Photo by M.Z. Jacobson
Rooftop Solar Plus Battery Storage
Photo by M.Z. Jacobson
Electric Cars + Batteries
Photo by M.Z. Jacobson
7 Days of Home Energy Use
M.Z. Jacobson
Green: PV supply
Light Blue: Use from PV
Dark Blue: Use from batteries
Red: Use from grid
Line = battery
charging/discharging
One Year of Energy Use
Generated 120% of all home and vehicle energy
 No electric bill, natural gas bill, or gasoline bill
Instead, received $530 from CCA for excess electricity to grid
M.Z. Jacobson
Avoided costs of all-electric home
with solar PV+batteries
Gas hookup fee: 3-8 K
Gas pipes: 1-7 K
Electric bill 1-3 K per year
Natural gas bill 1-3 K per year
Vehicle fuel bill 1-4 K per year
Total: 4-15 K plus 3-10 K per year
Can the World Transition to 100%, Clean,
Renewable Energy for all Purposes?
Roadmaps for 139 Countries
All-Purpose End-Use Power Demand
Year and Fuel Type 139-
Countries
2012 Demand 12.1 TW
2050 Demand with current fuels (BAU) 20.6 TW
2050 Demand with WWS, no heat pumps
2050 Demand with WWS, w/heat pumps
11.8 TW
8.6 TW
2050 Demand reduction w/ WWS
23.0% electrification
12.6% energy self use
15.8% efficiency of heat pumps
6.9% efficiency beyond BAU
58.3%
TECHNOLOGY PCT SUPPLY 2050 NUMBER
5-MW onshore wind turbines 5.0% 466
5-MW offshore wind turbines 45.0 2,640
5-kW Res. roof PV systems 4.0 657,000
100-kW com/gov roof PV systems 3.4 24,700
50-MW Solar PV plants 41.0 544
100-MW CSP plants 0 0
100-MW geothermal plants 0 0
1300-MW hydro plants 0.56 0
1-MW tidal turbines 0 0
0.75-MW wave devices 1.0 702
100%
Percent of 2050 Connecticut End-Use Demand Supplied by
WWS Devices and Number of New Devices
TECHNOLOGY PCT SUPPLY 2050 NUMBER
5-MW onshore wind turbines 23.5% 1,582,000
5-MW offshore wind turbines 13.6 935,000
5-kW Res. roof PV systems 16.0 1.96 billion
100-kW com/gov roof PV systems 12.2 78.6 million
50-MW Solar PV plants 19.7 233,000
100-MW CSP plants 9.7 21,500
100-MW geothermal plants 0.67 839
1300-MW hydro plants 4.0 0
1-MW tidal turbines 0.06 30,000
0.75-MW wave devices 0.58 410,000
100%
Percent of 2050 139-Country End-Use Demand Supplied by
WWS Devices and Number of New Devices
Area Beyond 2015 Installations to Power 139 Countries for all
Purposes With 100% WWS in 2050
Percent of 139-Country Land
Onshore wind: 0.92%
Utility PV+CSP: 0.22%
Total 1.14%
California United States
Active oil and gas wells 105,000 1.2 million
Abandoned oil wells 225,000 2.6 million
Abandoned gas wells 48,000 550,000
Coal mines 0 1,520
Oil refineries 17 135
Miles of gas pipeline 112,000 1.6 million
Miles of oil pipeline 3,000 161,000
Power plants 39 3,364
Gas stations 10,200 114,500
Gas storage facilities 10 394
% of California or US land 1.7 1.3
Land Areas Required For Fossil Fuels
Grid Stability Studies for 20 World Regions
3 Storage Scenarios for 100% WWS in 2050
CASE A B C
Batteries Yes No Yes
CSP storage Yes Yes Yes
Heat/cold storage Yes Yes No
Heat pumps No No Yes
Added hydropower turbines No Yes No
Pumped hydropower storage Yes Yes Yes
Hydrogen for transportation Yes Yes Yes
Mean World Cost (¢/kWh) 10.6 10.7 10.6
Demand reduction vs. BAU (%) 42.5 42.5 58.3
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
One Month of Results From a 2050-2054 Study on Matching 2050-
54 U.S.+Canada All-Sector Demand With 100% WWS
With Zero Added Hydropower Turbines or Heat Pumps (Case A)
Matching 2050-54 Central America (7 Countries) All-Sector Load With
100% WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
Matching 2050-54 Cuba All-Sector Load With 100% WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
Matching 2050-54 Haiti-Dominican Republic All-Sector Load With
100% WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
Matching 2050-54 Jamaica All-Sector Load With 100% WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
Matching 2050-54 South America (12 Countries) All-Sector Load
With 100% WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
Matching 2050-54 New Zealand All-Sector Load w/100% WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
Matching 2050-54 Australia All-Sector Load With 100% WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
Matching 2050-54 Southeast Asia (9 Countries) All-Sector Load With
100% WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
Matching 2050-54 Philippines All-Sector Load With 100% WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
Matching 2050-54 Japan-South Korea All-Sector Load With 100%
WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
Matching 2050-54 Taiwan All-Sector Load With 100% WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
Matching 2050-54 China-Hong Kong-Mongolia-North Korea All-
Sector Load With 100% WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
Matching 2050-54 Russia-Georgia All-Sector Load With 100%
WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
Matching 2050-54 India-Nepal-Sri Lanka All-Sector Load With
100% WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
Matching 2050-54 Central Asia (6 Countries) All-Sector Load With
100% WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
Matching 2050-54 Middle East (16 Countries) All-Sector Load With
100% WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
Matching 2050-54 Europe (40 Countries) All-Sector Load With
100% WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
Matching 2050-54 Iceland All-Sector Load With 100% WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
Matching 2050-54 Africa (27 Countries) All-Sector Load With 100%
WWS
Red = Energy supply
Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
BAU electricity sector cost (includes T&D+storage) 9.8 ¢/kWh
BAU fuel health cost 12.7
BAU fuel climate cost 15.8
Total conventional fuel electricity sector cost 38.3 ¢/kWh
WWS replacing BAU electricity sector only 9.7 ¢/kWh
(includes T&D+storage)
WWS replacing all BAU energy sectors 10.6 ¢/kWh
Similar cost per kWh but WWS uses 43-58% fewer kWh
2050 139-Country WWS vs. BAU Cost
Jacobsonet al.(2018)
Public Opinion Survey
26,000 people in 13 countries November 2017
Canada, China, Denmark, France, Germany Netherlands,
Poland, South Korea, Sweden, Taiwan, UK, USA
82% want a world with 100% renewable energy
66% believe climate change is a global challenge
69% say renewables make countries more energy independent
73% say renewables will boost economic growth
https://orsted.com/en/Barometer
Do you support or oppose powering all energy in the U.S. entirely by clean and renewable sources
like wind, solar, and hydroelectric by 2050? That means homes, businesses, cars, trucks.
“…United States should support a transition to…100
percent clean renewable energy,…”
Senate Resolution S.Res.632 (8 co-sponsors)
“A resolution supporting a transition to 100% clean, renewable
energy…”
Senate Bill S.987 (5 co-sponsors)
“A bill to transition away from fossil fuel sources to 100 percent
clean and renewable energy by 2050”
U.S. House Bill H.R.3314 (36 co-sp) and 3671 (44 co-sp)
“…toward 100% clean and renewable energy by 2050”
“…to 100% clean (WWS) energy and efficiency by 2035”
House Resolution H.Res.540 (60 co-sponsors)
Law: Hawaii
100% renewable electricity by 2045
Law: California
100% renewable electricity by 2045, 60% by 2030
Law: Vermont
75% renewable electricity by 2032
Law: New York
50% renewable electricity by 2030
Proposed: Washington State
SB 6253 100% carbon-free electricity by 2045
WWS?Contributory Impacts of 100% WWS
Roadmaps
Some of 110+ Cities/Counties Committed to 100% Renewables
Burlington (VT) Grand Rapids (MI) Sylva (NC)
Greensburg (KS) Lancaster (CA) Atlanta (GA)
Aspen (CO) Park City (UT) Orlando (FL),
Vancouver (BC) San Jose (CA) East Hampton (NY)
San Diego (CA) Santa Fe (NM) Rochester (MN)
Honolulu (HI) Santa Monica (CA) WestChester (PA)
Columbia (SC) Pueblo (CO) S. Lake Tahoe (CA)
Palo Alto (CA) Boone (NC) Nelson (BC)
San Francisco (CA) Moab (UT) St. Petersburg (FL)
Georgetown (TX) Abita Springs (LA) St. Louis (MO)
Madison (WI) Portland (OR) Sarasota (FL)
Santa Barbara (CA) Salt Lake City (UT) Nevada City (NV)
Oxford County (ON) Fayetteville (AR) Boulder (CO)
Some of the 154+ Companies Committed to 100% Renewables
IKEA Adobe Autodesk Coca Cola
Google H&M HP Goldman-Sachs
Microsoft Nestle Nike Johnson & Johnson
Apple S&P Starbucks Walmart
Workday T-Mobile AB InBev Bank of America
Bloomberg BMW Group Burberry Citi
Clif Bar Ebay Facebook Estee Lauder
GM Goldman-Sachs HSBC Infosys
Kellogg’s Lego Mars Morgan Stanley
Salesforce Organic Valley VM Ware Wells Fargo
Some of the 70+ NGOs Committed to 100%
The Solutions Project Environment America
100.Org Toxics Action Center
Sierra Club Renewable Cities
350.Org National People’s Action
Greenpeace Institute for Self-Reliance
theRE100.org Hip Hop Caucus
go100percent.org Environmental Action
renewables100.org Renewable Energy Long Island
Climate Reality Emerald Cities Collaborative
iclei.org Community Power
The Center for Working Families Center for Community Change
Miami ClimateAlliance Asian Pacific Environmental Network
Creates ~24 million more jobs than are lost worldwide
Requires only 0.22% of land for footprint; 0.92% for spacing
Avoids ~4-7 mil. air pollution deaths per year
Slows then reverses global warming
Grids can stay stable throughout the world with 100%
WWS energy cost per kWh slightly less than that of fossils
WWS energy+health+climate costs per kWh are 1/4th that of fossils
Absolute WWS energy+health+climate costs are 1/8th that of fossils
Summary – Transitioning to 100% WWS
Transitioning to 100% WWS in all energy sectors is technically and
economically possible
The main barriers are social and political
The solution requires collective willpower and immediate deployment
Summary – Transitioning to 100% WWS
Slides similar to this talk
web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/1810-
Vancouver.pptx
Roadmaps
web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-
USState-plans.html
Grid Studies
www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/Combini
ngRenew/combining.html
Infographic maps
www.thesolutionsproject.org 100.org
Twitter: @mzjacobson

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1811 hartford ct-jacobson

  • 1. Transitioning Buildings, Cities, States, and Countries to 100% Clean, Renewable Energy For All Purposes Mark Z. Jacobson People’s Action for Clean Energy Stanford University Hartford, Connecticut November 8, 2018
  • 2.
  • 3. What’s the Problem? Why act Quickly? Fossil-fuel + biofuel air pollution cause 4-7 mil. premature air pollution deaths per year worldwide costing ~$20-25 trillion/year Global warming due to world emissions will cost ~$25-30 trillion per year by 2050. Fossil fuels are limited resources, and their continued use must increase energy prices and economic, political, and social instability Drastic problems require immediate solutions.
  • 4. ELECTRICITY TRANSPORTATION HEATING/COOLING INDUSTRY Wind Battery-electric Electric heat pumps Electric arc furnaces Solar PV/CSP HFC-BE hybrids Solar water preheat Induction furnaces Geothermal Dielectric heating Hydro Tidal/Wave Wind, Water, Solar (WWS) Solution Electrify or Provide Direct Heat For All Sectors and Provide the Electricity and Heat with 100% WWS
  • 5. Industrial Heat: Replace Fossils With Electricity ElectricArc Furnace Electric Induction Furnace
  • 6. Tesla semi electric Hydrogen fuel cell–electric hybrid busProtera electric bus Nikola One semi hydrogen fuel cell Electric & Hydrogen Fuel Cell Trucks and Buses
  • 7. 7 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.750.751.001.251.501.75 Mass Ratio Battery Electric : Fossil Fuel Land-Based Vehicle Type Volume Ratio Battery Electric : Fossil Fuel M1 Abrams M2 Bradley M113 APC M978 HEMTT M1078 FMTV M1151 HMMWV M1257 Stryker RG-33L What if we Converted the Army’s Land-Based Vehicle Fleet to Battery Electric Vehicles Using 2020 Target Technology? * Bars show difference in equivalency calculations to gross vs. curb vehicle weight of FF variant (i.e. delta could be used to improve the ratio but would decrease payload capacity of new variant)
  • 8. 8 0.850.900.951.001.05 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 Mass Ratio Hydrogen Fuel Cell : Fossil Fuel Land-Based Vehicle Type Volume Ratio Hydrogen Fuel Cell : Fossil Fuel M1 Abrams M2 Bradley M113 APC M978 HEMTT M1078 FMTV M1151 HMMWV M1257 Stryker RG-33L What if we Converted the Army’s Land-Based Vehicle Fleet to Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Using 2020 Target Technology? * Bars show difference in equivalency calculations to gross vs. curb vehicle weight of FF variant (i.e. delta could be used to improve the ratio but would decrease payload capacity of new variant)
  • 9. Planes: Replace Jet Fuel With Batteries & Hydrogen Fuel Cells Cryogenic hydrogen aircraft Hydrogen fuel cell aircraft Battery electric aircraft
  • 10. Replace Helicopters With Vertical Take-Off and Landing Aircraft Pipistrel VTOL aircraft
  • 11. Electric lift Electric Appliances Electric lawn mower Electric leaf blower
  • 12. Provide More Electricity With Floating Offshore Wind and PV
  • 13. ELECTRICITY HEATING/COOLING OTHER CSP with storage Water Hydrogen for transport Pumped hydro Ice Demand-response Existing hydroelectric Rocks in soil Batteries Types of Storage for a 100% WWS System
  • 14. Nighttime Storage in Ice for Daytime Air Cooling https://www.torontohydro.com/sites/electricsystem/electricityconservation/businessconservation/Pages/IceBearEnergyStoragePilot.aspx
  • 15. Seasonal Heat Storage in Underground Rocks Okotoks, Canada http://www.sustainapedia.com/drake-landing-solar-community/ https://www.leidos.com/project/north-america’s-first- Mark Z. Jacobson (2015) right
  • 16. Stanford Boilers/Chillers & Heat/Cold Demand For 1 Year https://sustainable.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/SESI_Condensed_factsheet_0.pdf
  • 17. Transitioning an Individual Home to Run on WWS Electricity/Storage and No Gas
  • 18. Ductless Mini-Split Electric Heat Pump Air Heater / Air Conditioner M.Z. Jacobson
  • 19. Electric Heat Pump Water Heater Photo by M.Z. Jacobson
  • 21. Rooftop Solar Plus Battery Storage Photo by M.Z. Jacobson
  • 22. Electric Cars + Batteries Photo by M.Z. Jacobson
  • 23. 7 Days of Home Energy Use M.Z. Jacobson Green: PV supply Light Blue: Use from PV Dark Blue: Use from batteries Red: Use from grid Line = battery charging/discharging
  • 24. One Year of Energy Use Generated 120% of all home and vehicle energy  No electric bill, natural gas bill, or gasoline bill Instead, received $530 from CCA for excess electricity to grid M.Z. Jacobson Avoided costs of all-electric home with solar PV+batteries Gas hookup fee: 3-8 K Gas pipes: 1-7 K Electric bill 1-3 K per year Natural gas bill 1-3 K per year Vehicle fuel bill 1-4 K per year Total: 4-15 K plus 3-10 K per year
  • 25. Can the World Transition to 100%, Clean, Renewable Energy for all Purposes? Roadmaps for 139 Countries
  • 26. All-Purpose End-Use Power Demand Year and Fuel Type 139- Countries 2012 Demand 12.1 TW 2050 Demand with current fuels (BAU) 20.6 TW 2050 Demand with WWS, no heat pumps 2050 Demand with WWS, w/heat pumps 11.8 TW 8.6 TW 2050 Demand reduction w/ WWS 23.0% electrification 12.6% energy self use 15.8% efficiency of heat pumps 6.9% efficiency beyond BAU 58.3%
  • 27. TECHNOLOGY PCT SUPPLY 2050 NUMBER 5-MW onshore wind turbines 5.0% 466 5-MW offshore wind turbines 45.0 2,640 5-kW Res. roof PV systems 4.0 657,000 100-kW com/gov roof PV systems 3.4 24,700 50-MW Solar PV plants 41.0 544 100-MW CSP plants 0 0 100-MW geothermal plants 0 0 1300-MW hydro plants 0.56 0 1-MW tidal turbines 0 0 0.75-MW wave devices 1.0 702 100% Percent of 2050 Connecticut End-Use Demand Supplied by WWS Devices and Number of New Devices
  • 28. TECHNOLOGY PCT SUPPLY 2050 NUMBER 5-MW onshore wind turbines 23.5% 1,582,000 5-MW offshore wind turbines 13.6 935,000 5-kW Res. roof PV systems 16.0 1.96 billion 100-kW com/gov roof PV systems 12.2 78.6 million 50-MW Solar PV plants 19.7 233,000 100-MW CSP plants 9.7 21,500 100-MW geothermal plants 0.67 839 1300-MW hydro plants 4.0 0 1-MW tidal turbines 0.06 30,000 0.75-MW wave devices 0.58 410,000 100% Percent of 2050 139-Country End-Use Demand Supplied by WWS Devices and Number of New Devices
  • 29. Area Beyond 2015 Installations to Power 139 Countries for all Purposes With 100% WWS in 2050 Percent of 139-Country Land Onshore wind: 0.92% Utility PV+CSP: 0.22% Total 1.14%
  • 30. California United States Active oil and gas wells 105,000 1.2 million Abandoned oil wells 225,000 2.6 million Abandoned gas wells 48,000 550,000 Coal mines 0 1,520 Oil refineries 17 135 Miles of gas pipeline 112,000 1.6 million Miles of oil pipeline 3,000 161,000 Power plants 39 3,364 Gas stations 10,200 114,500 Gas storage facilities 10 394 % of California or US land 1.7 1.3 Land Areas Required For Fossil Fuels
  • 31. Grid Stability Studies for 20 World Regions 3 Storage Scenarios for 100% WWS in 2050 CASE A B C Batteries Yes No Yes CSP storage Yes Yes Yes Heat/cold storage Yes Yes No Heat pumps No No Yes Added hydropower turbines No Yes No Pumped hydropower storage Yes Yes Yes Hydrogen for transportation Yes Yes Yes Mean World Cost (¢/kWh) 10.6 10.7 10.6 Demand reduction vs. BAU (%) 42.5 42.5 58.3
  • 32. Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding One Month of Results From a 2050-2054 Study on Matching 2050- 54 U.S.+Canada All-Sector Demand With 100% WWS With Zero Added Hydropower Turbines or Heat Pumps (Case A)
  • 33. Matching 2050-54 Central America (7 Countries) All-Sector Load With 100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 34. Matching 2050-54 Cuba All-Sector Load With 100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 35. Matching 2050-54 Haiti-Dominican Republic All-Sector Load With 100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 36. Matching 2050-54 Jamaica All-Sector Load With 100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 37. Matching 2050-54 South America (12 Countries) All-Sector Load With 100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 38. Matching 2050-54 New Zealand All-Sector Load w/100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 39. Matching 2050-54 Australia All-Sector Load With 100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 40. Matching 2050-54 Southeast Asia (9 Countries) All-Sector Load With 100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 41. Matching 2050-54 Philippines All-Sector Load With 100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 42. Matching 2050-54 Japan-South Korea All-Sector Load With 100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 43. Matching 2050-54 Taiwan All-Sector Load With 100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 44. Matching 2050-54 China-Hong Kong-Mongolia-North Korea All- Sector Load With 100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 45. Matching 2050-54 Russia-Georgia All-Sector Load With 100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 46. Matching 2050-54 India-Nepal-Sri Lanka All-Sector Load With 100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 47. Matching 2050-54 Central Asia (6 Countries) All-Sector Load With 100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 48. Matching 2050-54 Middle East (16 Countries) All-Sector Load With 100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 49. Matching 2050-54 Europe (40 Countries) All-Sector Load With 100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 50. Matching 2050-54 Iceland All-Sector Load With 100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 51. Matching 2050-54 Africa (27 Countries) All-Sector Load With 100% WWS Red = Energy supply Blue = Energy demand + change in storage + losses + shedding
  • 52. BAU electricity sector cost (includes T&D+storage) 9.8 ¢/kWh BAU fuel health cost 12.7 BAU fuel climate cost 15.8 Total conventional fuel electricity sector cost 38.3 ¢/kWh WWS replacing BAU electricity sector only 9.7 ¢/kWh (includes T&D+storage) WWS replacing all BAU energy sectors 10.6 ¢/kWh Similar cost per kWh but WWS uses 43-58% fewer kWh 2050 139-Country WWS vs. BAU Cost Jacobsonet al.(2018)
  • 53. Public Opinion Survey 26,000 people in 13 countries November 2017 Canada, China, Denmark, France, Germany Netherlands, Poland, South Korea, Sweden, Taiwan, UK, USA 82% want a world with 100% renewable energy 66% believe climate change is a global challenge 69% say renewables make countries more energy independent 73% say renewables will boost economic growth https://orsted.com/en/Barometer
  • 54. Do you support or oppose powering all energy in the U.S. entirely by clean and renewable sources like wind, solar, and hydroelectric by 2050? That means homes, businesses, cars, trucks.
  • 55. “…United States should support a transition to…100 percent clean renewable energy,…” Senate Resolution S.Res.632 (8 co-sponsors) “A resolution supporting a transition to 100% clean, renewable energy…” Senate Bill S.987 (5 co-sponsors) “A bill to transition away from fossil fuel sources to 100 percent clean and renewable energy by 2050” U.S. House Bill H.R.3314 (36 co-sp) and 3671 (44 co-sp) “…toward 100% clean and renewable energy by 2050” “…to 100% clean (WWS) energy and efficiency by 2035” House Resolution H.Res.540 (60 co-sponsors)
  • 56. Law: Hawaii 100% renewable electricity by 2045 Law: California 100% renewable electricity by 2045, 60% by 2030 Law: Vermont 75% renewable electricity by 2032 Law: New York 50% renewable electricity by 2030 Proposed: Washington State SB 6253 100% carbon-free electricity by 2045 WWS?Contributory Impacts of 100% WWS Roadmaps
  • 57. Some of 110+ Cities/Counties Committed to 100% Renewables Burlington (VT) Grand Rapids (MI) Sylva (NC) Greensburg (KS) Lancaster (CA) Atlanta (GA) Aspen (CO) Park City (UT) Orlando (FL), Vancouver (BC) San Jose (CA) East Hampton (NY) San Diego (CA) Santa Fe (NM) Rochester (MN) Honolulu (HI) Santa Monica (CA) WestChester (PA) Columbia (SC) Pueblo (CO) S. Lake Tahoe (CA) Palo Alto (CA) Boone (NC) Nelson (BC) San Francisco (CA) Moab (UT) St. Petersburg (FL) Georgetown (TX) Abita Springs (LA) St. Louis (MO) Madison (WI) Portland (OR) Sarasota (FL) Santa Barbara (CA) Salt Lake City (UT) Nevada City (NV) Oxford County (ON) Fayetteville (AR) Boulder (CO)
  • 58. Some of the 154+ Companies Committed to 100% Renewables IKEA Adobe Autodesk Coca Cola Google H&M HP Goldman-Sachs Microsoft Nestle Nike Johnson & Johnson Apple S&P Starbucks Walmart Workday T-Mobile AB InBev Bank of America Bloomberg BMW Group Burberry Citi Clif Bar Ebay Facebook Estee Lauder GM Goldman-Sachs HSBC Infosys Kellogg’s Lego Mars Morgan Stanley Salesforce Organic Valley VM Ware Wells Fargo
  • 59. Some of the 70+ NGOs Committed to 100% The Solutions Project Environment America 100.Org Toxics Action Center Sierra Club Renewable Cities 350.Org National People’s Action Greenpeace Institute for Self-Reliance theRE100.org Hip Hop Caucus go100percent.org Environmental Action renewables100.org Renewable Energy Long Island Climate Reality Emerald Cities Collaborative iclei.org Community Power The Center for Working Families Center for Community Change Miami ClimateAlliance Asian Pacific Environmental Network
  • 60. Creates ~24 million more jobs than are lost worldwide Requires only 0.22% of land for footprint; 0.92% for spacing Avoids ~4-7 mil. air pollution deaths per year Slows then reverses global warming Grids can stay stable throughout the world with 100% WWS energy cost per kWh slightly less than that of fossils WWS energy+health+climate costs per kWh are 1/4th that of fossils Absolute WWS energy+health+climate costs are 1/8th that of fossils Summary – Transitioning to 100% WWS
  • 61. Transitioning to 100% WWS in all energy sectors is technically and economically possible The main barriers are social and political The solution requires collective willpower and immediate deployment Summary – Transitioning to 100% WWS
  • 62. Slides similar to this talk web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/1810- Vancouver.pptx Roadmaps web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50- USState-plans.html Grid Studies www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/Combini ngRenew/combining.html Infographic maps www.thesolutionsproject.org 100.org Twitter: @mzjacobson