1ENERGY CRISES ANDHYDROPOWER IN PAKISTANCenter of Excellence in Water Resource Engineering University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore Muhammad Imran Azam
2Energy Scenario• Unfortunately in Pakistan, inspite of tall claims and rhetoric by all governments, real solutions to meet the energy requirements of the nation have never been formulated or achieved.• As a consequence, Pakistan economic, industrial and social growth has been greatly constrained.• Due to an increasing gap in energy demand versus capacity, while successive governments put power generation and availability of gas as a priority on their agenda, unfortunately, all plans of providing adequate and affordable energy to the citizens have failed to materialize.• In reality it is due to paucity of a VISION, absence of robust planning and of a commitment to national development.
4Roots of Pakistan Energy Crises As a consequence the energy shortages have snowballed with major supply chain and infrastructure gaps, namely; ▫ The Electric Power Sector; has been in static non-growth mode from 2003 till today, and the peak supply-demand gap has grown from 3,000 to 5,000 MW (1,000 MW in 2006) ▫ In the Gas Sector; the demand - supply gap seriously emerged in 2007 has grown to about 800 MMCFD in 2009 due to installed import projects and shortfall will increase upto 11,092 MMCFD by 2025 ▫ Inadequate Energy Infrastructure; supply to end customers both for electric power as well as fuel oil for Power Plants has been constrained ▫ Short Supply of Gas/Oil to Power Plants; the crisis has been aggravated due to gas supply shortfall and reduced oil supply due to non-payments ▫ Transmission Loses are above 21%, with KESE upto 34%
4 Current Energy Crises• Current Energy Annual Shortfall goes even upto 5,000 MW• Minimum 2,000 MW additional capacity is annually required to maintain the current GDP growth rate with an investment of US$ 4-6 Billion per year in the energy sector• Energy supplies must increase upto 40% of current levels by end 2010-11 and to 80% by 2015• Annual Increase in Energy Demand: 8-12%• Current Total Installed Capacity: 22,195 MW• Peak Demand: 13,000 – 18,000 MW• Today’s Energy Shortfall: 3,059 MW
5Pakistan Primary Energy MixEnergy Mix Sector Overview (Jan 2011):• Total Installed Capacity: 22,195 MW ▫ PEPCO 19,528 MW ▫ KESC 2,667 MW• Thermal (fossil-fuels): 15,000 MW (67% share)• Hydropower: 6,595 MW (31% share) (in summers)(In 1995 the generation mix of Hydro-Thermal was 50% - 50%)• Nuclear: 462 MW (2% share)• Coal: 0.16 MW• Renewables: 42 MW (new addition (Wind/Solar) since 2008)
6 Hydropower Energy• Present demand of electricity in country in actual is above 17,000 MW and will be 30,000 MW by year 2017• Energy deficit was 3,000 to 5,000 MW in 2010 and likely to rise upto 10,000 MW by 2020• Identified Hydropower Sites - 41,722 MW• Hydropower Potential - 100,000 MW• 70 % of hydro potential lies in KPK• Current Power Hydropower Generation (6,595 MW): ▫ Punjab - 1,698 MW ▫ KPK - 3,767 MW ▫ AJK - 94 MW ▫ GB - 1,036 MW
16HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL IN PAKISTAN Swat & Scheme below Chitral River 50 MW 4653 1463 MW MW Jhelum River Basin 6819 MW 43786 MW Indus River Basin
17Natural Gas Energy• Natural Gas is the third source of energy• Currently, natural gas supplies 49 percent of Pakistan’s energy needs.• Pakistan had 26.83 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven natural gas reserves.• Pakistan ranks third in the world for use of natural gas as a motor fuel, behind Brazil and Argentina.
18Natural Gas Energy• Annual increase in gas demand is @ 10%• Gas and Oil contributes > 70% of the energy needs• Pakistan has limited gas reserves (30-40 years) and its domestic / commercial uses have left little scope to use it in a big way for power generation.• Government plans to generate 7,880 MW of electricity through gas by end of 2010. Out of it, 4,860 MW is to be generated by firing natural gas based on around 60 per cent capacity expansion. But, it is linked with gas import option from Iran and Turkmenistan.
19 Natural Gas Energy• Current Natural Gas demand is 5,000 MMCFD, while Supply is 4,600 MMCFD• Gas shortfall Summers = 250 MMCFD Winters = 800 MMCFD• CNG Stations > 3,000 and more than 2 million cars on CNG• Sever imbalance gas in demand and supply is expected by 2025: Gas Production 2025 13,259 MMCFD Gas Shortage 2025 11,092 MMCFD• Need to import 500 MMCFD LNG from Qatar• 1 billion cubic feet per day from Iran by 2014• Laying of 800 km gas pipeline from Iran to Nawab Shah will generate 4,500 MW
20Iran-Pakistan-India - Gas Energy• The idea was conceived by a young Pakistani civil engineer Malik Aftab Ahmed Khan in mid 1950s,• Project was conceptualized in 1989• Discussions between the governments of Iran and Pakistan started in 1994 and preliminary agreement signed in 1995• This agreement foresaw construction of a pipeline from South Pars gas field to Karachi in Pakistan• On April 12, 2010, Iran announced that it has completed construction of 1,000 kilometers of the pipeline out of the 1,100 kilometers portion on Iranian soil. On this Iranian ambassador to Pakistan said that "Iran has done her job and it now depends on Pakistan".• The construction of the pipeline on Iranian side is on pace to be completed by 2011.• "the ball is in Pakistan’s court now and it depends on them how long they take to complete work on the project"
21Iran-Pakistan-India - Gas Energy• The 2,775-kilometre (1,724 mi) pipeline will be supplied from the South Pars field. It will start from Asalouyeh and stretch over 1,100 kilometres (680 mi) through Iran.• In Pakistan, it will pass through Balochistan and Sindh.In Khuzdar, a branch would spur-off to Karachi, while the main pipeline will continue towards Multan. From Multan, the pipeline may be expanded to Delhi.• For the security reasons, India has proposed an alternative offshore route from Iran to the maritime boundary between India and Pakistan off Kutch. From there one branch to run to Pakistan while other branch to run to Kutch.• The initial capacity of the pipeline will be 22 bcm/year of natural gas per year, which is expected to be raised later to 55 bcm/year.The pipeline will have diameter of
23 Nuclear Energy• Pakistan has around 30 thousand metric tons of uranium (308)• Pakistan has two nuclear reactors of 425 MW power and representing only 2.4 % of the electricity production• Chashma-II of 500 MW with the help of China is under construction after a lapse of 25 years• Pakistan is an un-recognized nuclear weapon state and there are international embargoes on the transfer of nuclear technology• This obviously puts a limit on full exploitation in nuclear energy for power generation on a larger scale.• Goal is to produced 8,800 MW of Nuclear Electricity by the year 2030 (requirement will be - 6,000 tons of uranium).• Pakistan has 1,000 uranium reserves (4 mined, 9 potential reserves.• Uranium favorable rocks 12 % of total areas of Pakistan• 65 % of favorable sites have been scanned
24Coal Energy – Pakistan Perspective• Pakistan produces only 0.2 % of its power through coal.• The current coal production in pakistan is only 3.5 million tons per year,• In Pakistan, there are plans to build only two 300 MW coal-fired plants at Thar.• Mostly used for the brick and cement industry.• Coal has typical problems, such as a high sulphur content (it produces sulphur dioxide, the source of acid rain),• Mineral matter content (leading to ash and pollution problems),• Carbon dioxide emission (contributing to global warming) and high moisture content.
25Coal Energy -Thar Coal Utilization• Thar desert is 9th largest desert of the world• Worlds Single 7th largest contiguous Coal reserve field extends over an area of 9,100 Sq km• Reserves of 175 – 185 billions tons exceed oil equivalent reserves of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran (375 billion barrels).• Coal reserve is 30 times more than gas reserve in Pakistan.• Phased development can lead to 400 – 600 mt /year coal mining in 20 years.• Pakistan’s current energy requirements can be met by Coal alone by utilizing only 20% and generating 20,000 MW for 30 years• Just 2% usage of Thar Coal can Produce 20,000 Mega Watts of Electricity for next 40 years• The coal power generation would cost Pakistan PKR 5.67 per unit while power generated by Independent Power Projects cost PKR 9.27
26Coal Energy -Thar Coal Utilization• The current value of our coal reserves is estimated at US $ 8 trillion and if converted into sophisticated form of energy like electricity, the value goes up to Us $ 25 trillion.• In addition to Electric Power, LNG, Chemicals, Fertilizer, etc can be produced for self consumption and surplus can be exported• Contribution to GDP in plants, products, services, employment, etc, would be in the range of $200b- $300b which exceeds Pakistan’s current GDP of US $ 170 billion• Thar Coal is God’s Gift of “Black Gold” to the People of Pakistan and will ensure the Nation’s Energy & Economic Future
28RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL INPAKISTAN• Renewable Energy Potential: ▫ Wind: 0. 346 Million MW ▫ Solar: >2 Million MW ▫ Biogas: 1,800 MW ▫ Waste to Power: 500 MW ▫ Mini & Small Hydel: 2,000 MW ▫ Geothermal: 550 MW• Identified Wind potential of >40,000 MW exists in 180 km long Gharo-Keti Bandar wind corridor• Off-grid initiatives have the potential to relieve the grid of 2,000 MW during short - mid term• Over 30 Million hectares of land potentially available for energy plantations
29RENEWABLE ENERGY – WINDPOTENTIAL IN PAKISTAN• In Pakistan, smaller windmills are now visible, such as in Badin, Thattha, Dadu, Jamshoro and above all Gharo, where SZABIST set up an experimental research station many years ago.• The Sindh Government has recently announced plans to build a 50 MW wind farm in the vicinity in the coastal region at Gharo.
30 Wind Energy• Wind energy will help to reduce the country’s oil- import bill and cost of power generation less vulnerable to fluctuation in oil prices• Windfall from sale of carbon credits will make wind power economically attractive proposition for meeting our future electricity demand• Pakistan has a huge potential to develop wind power. The “Wind Corridor” in coastal area of Sindh alone has the capacity to generate @ 40,000 MW and AEDB has put in place a renewable energy policy that is one of the comprehensive and investor-friendly in the world• Large Wind power projects can start generating electricity within two years, however;• Small wind turbines/mills to be promoted ASAP
31 Wind Energy• Wind corridor extends from Keti-Bandar to Karachi to Gharo in Southern Sindh• Wind data do not show promising results, as annual mean wind speed of @ 4m/s, is too low for large commercial viable projects• Specific costs are still too high to assure economic viability• Wind farms (in the range of 100 MW) exists in south-east of Karachi of Sindh province• Another 41 sites are investigated by PMD for wind mapping and real ground assessment
33RENEWABLE ENERGY - SOLAR• Solar power (photovoltaic or thermal) is another alternative energy source option that is generally considered feasible for tropical and equatorial countries.• Even though the accepted standard is 1,000 W/m² of peak power at sea level, an average solar panel (or photovoltaic — PV — panel), delivers an average of only 19-56W/m².• Solar plants are generally used in cases where smaller amounts of power are required at remote locations. PV is also the most expensive of all options making it less attractive.
35RENEWABLE ENERGY - GEOTHERMAL• Pakistan can be benefited by harnessing the geothermal option of energy generation as substitute energy in areas where sources exist.• Most of the high enthalpy geothermal resources of the world are within the seismic belts associated with zones of crustal weakness like the seismo- tectonic belt that passes through Pakistan having inherited a long geological history of geotectonic events.• Present study of the geotectonic framework suggests that Pakistan should not be lacking in commercially exploitable sources of geothermal energy. This view is further strengthened by:
36RENEWABLE ENERGY - GEOTHERMAL• Geo-pressurized systems related to basin subsidence,• Seismo-tectonic or suture-related systems, and• Systems related to Neogene–Quaternary volcanism.• A few localities, scattered sporadically all over the country, have been studied to evaluate only some of the basic characteristic parameters of the geothermal prospects.• The present review study the geothermal activities of varying intensity and nature, associated with different geotectonic domains, and reveals the viable potential of the geothermal environments, which could be exploited for the generation of sustainable indigenous energy in Pakistan.
37RENEWABLE ENERGY - BIOGAS• Pakistan is meeting 1.50% of its energy requirements from biomass, whose consumption is increasing average at the rate of over 5% per annum.• About 62% of biomass users living in rural areas collect biomass for their use and only 24% buy wood. In urban areas 14% of biomass consumers buy, only 12% of these collect wood for their living and 66% use natural gas.• At present almost 1,200 plants has been installed and out of the 98% are functional.• In addition, the next five year target is 10,000 number of plants. After that program, 27% of the total potentiality will recover.
38 Energy Planning• Per capita energy consumption is an indicator to measure the prosperity of any society. It is approximately 500 kwh in Pakistan whereas the world average is 2,500 kwh which is five times greater than that of ours• What hurdles are stopping other big players around the world to enter Pakistan’s energy sector?• What is the role of Gas distribution companies so far?• Are the citizens of Pakistan being robbed by energy giants with ever rising utility bills?• When will the nation have “load shedding free” electric supply?• Have we been able to make long term contracts with the countries to provide un-interrupted supply of energy resources?
39 Energy Planning• Will the government be able to provide enough sources to the citizens for a sustainable economic growth?• Have we lost the race for acquiring maximum energy resources for future survival?• How much depletion in energy resources!• What is Government doing to ensure a sustainable supply of energy resources for economic growth?• What strategic steps are being taken to acquire energy resources in future?• Is private sector willing to invest in Pakistan’s oil & gas, hydro, coal and renewable industry? Specially Coal and Hydro• What are the incentives being offered to the foreign players to continue working in the exploration sector?
40Energy Planning• Pakistan needs to aggressively pursue ways to increase its power-generating capacity. The best options available today are Nuclear and Coal, followed by Wind and Solar. Hydroelectricity can only be pursued after all environmental, ecological and geopolitical issues are settled with a consensus among all four provinces.• Pakistan needs to set up at least a Dozen Nuclear Power Plants, large coal fired plants, wind farms and solar plants in the next 10 years to generate about 20,000 MW of electricity. We need to invest at least a billion $ a year in developing the infrastructure and establishing power plants using nuclear, coal, wind and solar technology. We need to cut back on non- development expenditures by at least one billion
What Next? 41• Set-Up National Energy Authority (NEA), which should act as an Energy Statuary Body• NEA must be Independent and Focal entity• NEA lays Strategic Planning and Energy Policy• NEA Prepares Integrated and Comprehensive National Energy Plan for Short/Medium/Long term goals• NEA must be strong Monitoring Authority for all Energy Sector Projects as per agreed road maps and milestones
42What Next?• Two key elements of a possible solution are: change of attitude and change in lifestyles.
43 MITIGATION POTENTIAL“The world we live in is not inherited to us by our forefathers, rather it has been loaned to us by our future generations” African Proverb WE NEED TO ACT, NOW
Raw Diamonds of Thar Coal Reserves being overlooked 44