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Pakistan's Renewable Energy prospects_an update

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This presentation traces the recent market developments in Solar and Wind Energy and its impact on the prospects in Pakistan.

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Pakistan's Renewable Energy prospects_an update

  1. 1. Renewable Energy : Prospects Update IEEEP Annual Conference March 2013 Akhtar Ali Pro-Plan Associates akhtarali1949@gmail.com 1
  2. 2. Renewables share in Total Energy  Global = 17-18% O/W  Traditional Biomass = 9%  Other renewable = 8%  30 Countries have a share of more than 20%  EU & US = 12%  Europe & Majors = 10%  Japan = 6% 2
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  4. 4. Global Scenario Share of Renewable Energy 2030 Conservative Moderate High 2040 2050 10 – 15 22 40% 15 35 60 40 80 4
  5. 5. Share of Renewable Electricity Countries Existing 2030 2050 Europe 21% 36 – 65 97 – 100 US 11% 15 – 71 30 – 90 Japan 10% 20 – 57 85 – 100 China 18% 25 – 43 50 – 92 India/Other Asia 31% 16 – 62 27 – 86 54 – 86 60 – 100 50 34 – 92 LA Africa 5
  6. 6. World Capacities of various Renewable Technologies - Status & Projections GW 2006 2011 2030 Hydro 800 970 1300 – 1740 Wind 74 238 920 – 2700 Solar PV 8 70 490 – 1000 0.40 1.8 40 – 140 Biomass 45 72 210 – 340 Geo thermal 9.5 11 30 – 50 Ocean 0.3 0.5 10 – 20 938+ 1362 CSP World Total 4000 USA 900 Pakistan 25 6
  7. 7. Countries Share in various REN USA GER Spain Italy China Solar PV % 5.7 35.6 6.5 18.3 4.4 Solar Heating Added Capacity% 0.9 1.9 0.6 0.8 81% 1.5 Solar Heating Total Capacity% 1 5% 4 64.8 1.5 Wind Power Additions MW 4.8 2 1.1 17 3 WP total capacity MW 42 28 20 45 13 49 6 Hydro % Total India Japan ROW 7.1 8.1 7
  8. 8. Comparative features of various Renewable Technologies Plant Size MW Capacity Factor % Energy Cost US Cents / kwh Biomass 25 – 100 70 – 80 7.9 – 17.6 Geo thermal 1 – 100 60 – 90 5.7 – 10.7 1 – 18000 30 – 60 5 – 10 Micro Hydro 0.1 – 1000 kw - 5 – 40 Ocean (Tidal) 1 – 250 23 – 29 21 – 28 Solar PV roof top 3.5 kw 10 – 20 22 Solar PV Utility 2.5 – 100 10 – 20 20 Wind Power on shore 1.5 – 3.5 20 – 40 5.21 – 16.5 0.5 – 5 MW 80 11.8 – 35.2 USD/GJ Hydro Power Grid base Biogas CHP Bio diesel 16.5 – 177 Ethanol 20 – 102/L 8
  9. 9. Renewable Energy Cost Trends Levelized cents/kWh in constant $20001 100 COE cents/kWh 40 Wind 30 60 20 40 10 20 0 1980 COE cents/kWh 10 1990 2000 Geothermal 8 6 4 2 0 1980 1990 PV 80 2000 2010 2020 2010 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980 0 1980 2020 1990 Solar thermal 2000 2010 2020 15 Biomass 12 9 6 3 1990 2000 2010 2020 0 1980 Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2002.ppt) 1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data. Updated: October 2002 1990 2000 2010 2020
  10. 10. Wind Power in Pakistan • • • • • • 2X50 MW projects already installed(Zorlu,FFC) Several at Planning Stage Total Potential Sindh-30,000 MW Actual Potential : 10% of Total(2500 MW) High Capacity Factor-31% Unrealistically High Tariff-16 cents per kWh 10
  11. 11. 20.00 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 7.4 8.00 5.11 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 17.21 10.21 10.21 10.65 11.67 11.96 13.00 8.61 7.5 7.78 7.80 De nm ar k Tu rke y1 Br az Ind il 2 ia (G uj r at ) US A Ch i na Ge rm an y Sl ov ak ia Sp a in Gr ee ce Fr an ce Ca na Ne da the rl a nd s US cents/kwh Feed in Tariff in EU Region Wind Power 12
  12. 12. an y Ch in a er m US A Br az il Tu rk ey Sw ed en De nm ar k Pa k is ta n G la nd s Sp ai n Ne th er In di a Wind Power capacity factors in selected countries % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 13
  13. 13. Wind Is The Cheapest Power Source in Uruguay • The average winning price in a recent Uruguayan auction for three 50MW wind power projects was US $63.70 per MWh. The cost of diesel or fuel-oil generated electricity in Uruguay is $135 – 140 per MWh. 14
  14. 14. Wind Power in Brazil is Cheaper than Gas • Developers of 44 wind farms bid an average of BRZ$99.58 (US$62) per MWh – below the average price for the two natural gas projects (BRZ$103.26), and a hydro project (BRZ$102) • 1 USD=2 BRZ • http://www.greenwellfuture.com/wind_pow er_in_brazil 15
  15. 15. Comparative Solar Suitability of regions 16
  16. 16. Solar PV Cells 18
  17. 17. Family of PV cells and efficiencies 19
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  19. 19. Solar PV applications and Business models thereof •Residential/small off-grid •Residential grid integrated •Utility distributed •Utility Power Plant 21
  20. 20. Off-grid Solar PV application 22
  21. 21. Grid Connected Residential PV application 23
  22. 22. Schematic layout of Solar PV utility Power Plant 24
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  35. 35. Solar PV Cost & Tariff in various countries(2013) Capital Cost USD/W PV Panels BoS 0.63 0.85 Tariff Capacity Total Usc/kWh Factor% India(regulated) 1.481 16.2 19 India Auctions 11.8-15.9 Europe(Germany) 0.78 0.9 1.68 17.55 10 Spain/Italy 15.6 14.8 USA(Calif,Texas,Florida) 15-17 18 California Auctions 8.92-12 19 Pakistan(proposed) 2.392 23.29 17 _______________________________________________________________________ Source: compiled by the Author(CERC India, PV-magazine, NEPRA) 37
  36. 36. Comparative CAPEX for Solar PV utilities(centralized)in various regions(2013)in USD/W India China Europe/US US target 2020 (Sunshot) Total(panels+ BoS)o/w 1.481 1.35 1.681 1 Panels 0.63 0.5 0.78 0.5 BOS o/w 0.85 0.85 0.9 0.5 land Civil Works(% of BoS) 14 0.2 Racking structures-do 13 0.2 Inverter-do 7 0.18 Grid Interface/do 15 0.12 Various incl IDC/do 10 0.2 Source: compiled by the Author(CERC India, Solar Server, GTM Market Study) 38
  37. 37. Comparative Solar PV Installed costs 201213(USD/W)IRTPV-March2013 PV Module BoS Owner’s Cost(say) Total Europe 0.69 0.47 0.25 USA 0.69 1.00 0.25 China 0.50 0.57 0.25 1.41 1.94 1.32 39
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  40. 40. Pakistan Projected Demand of REN(2025-50) 2013 2025 2050 Total Installed Capacity 25000 MW 50,000 MW 150,000 MW REN Share(10,20,40%) 2500 10000 60,000 Wind 1500 5000 30,000 Solar PV 1500 5000 30,000 Hydro 6000 15000 30,000 Bio-Mass-gas BioCNG 42
  41. 41. Pakistan Solar PV Tubes well market •Total Tube well = 1,000,000 •o/w Diesel = 834905 – 11000 MW • Electric = 85868 – 1104 MW • 40% run less than 800 hrs •Bulk of the Pumps 11-75 ft head •75-80% of Tube Wells in Punjab •Diesel – Number of days of Tube Well per year = 125 •Electric Number of days of Tube Well per year = 184 •10 – 15 -20 – 22 – 25 HP Avg 17 •Replacement demand = 400,000 (1994 and older) •Average annual demand = 30,000 pumps @ 10 kw per = 300 MW/pr say = 100 MW (for 10,000 pumps) 43
  42. 42. Micro-economics of Solar PV in Tube-well visa-vis Diesel Engine Case study of a 15 kW Solar Tube-well replacing diesel engine Item Solar PV capacity Capacity factor Annual Electricity produced Replacement cost of Diesel Annual Diesel replacement CAPEX Solar PV and Pump Investment Payback Period Equity @30% Loan Repayment period interest rate Annual Debt servicng Annual saving for first 10 yrs Equity payback Period Present Value of 25 yrs saving Net Present Value @10% IRR Electricity cost in1-10 years Electricity cost in11-25 years units kW hours kWh Rs/kWh Rs/yr Rs years Rs Rs years %p.a Rs Rs yrs Rs Rs % Rs/kWh Amount/Value 15 1600 24000 25 600000 1800000 3 540000 1260000 10 14 241,559 298,441 $1.81 5,446,224 3,646,224 33.31 10.06 0 44
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  45. 45. ISSUES •T & D Losses •High cost of Energy (circular debt) •High Capital Costs •Institutional Issues •Lack of Transparency •Lack of Competitions •Local content /technology 47
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