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Key findings and messages from the
IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land
www.ipcc.ch/report/SRCCL Agricultural landscape between Ankara and Hattusha, Anatolia, Turkey (40°00' N – 33°35’ E)
©Yann Arthus-Bertrand | www.yannarthusbertrand.org | www.goodplanet.org
Jim Skea, Co-Chair IPCC WG III
Kuala Lumpur, 26th October
#SRCCL
2
REPORT COVER IMAGE:
Agricultural landscape between Ankara and Hattusha, Anatolia, Turkey (40°00' N – 33°35’ E)
©Yann Arthus-Bertrand | www.yannarthusbertrand.org | www.goodplanet.org2
33
“Climate Change and Land: An
IPCC Special Report on climate
change, desertification, land
degradation, sustainable land
management, food security, and
greenhouse gas fluxes in
terrestrial ecosystems”
The long title mixes a variety of
concepts….
44
“Climate Change and Land: An
IPCC Special Report on climate
change, desertification, land
degradation, sustainable land
management, food security,
and greenhouse gas fluxes in
terrestrial ecosystems”
The long title mixes a variety of
concepts….
55
“Climate Change and Land: An
IPCC Special Report on climate
change, desertification, land
degradation, sustainable land
management, food security, and
greenhouse gas fluxes in
terrestrial ecosystems”
The long title mixes a variety of
concepts….
66
“Climate Change and Land: An
IPCC Special Report on climate
change, desertification, land
degradation, sustainable land
management, food security, and
greenhouse gas fluxes in
terrestrial ecosystems”
The long title mixes a variety of
concepts….
7
Report Structure
1: Framing and context
2: Land-climate interactions
3: Desertification
4: Land degradation
5: Food security
6: Interlinkages between desertification, land degradation, food security and GHG fluxes:
Synergies, trade-offs and integrated response options
7: Risk management and decision making in relation to sustainable development
The report outline proposed by
the scoping meeting was
agreed, after some refinement,
by the Panel
8
107 Authors
40% of CLAs are
Female
52 Countries
53% Authors
from Developing
Countries
7,000 Scientific
Publications
Assessed
28,275 Review
Comments
SRCCLREPORTBYTHENUMBERS
8
Authors included:
Scientists engaged with IPBES and UNCCD; FAO employees
9
Land is a critical resource –
we rely on it for food, water, health and
wellbeing – but it is already under
growing human pressure. Climate
change is adding to these pressures
“
1010 10
• Warming over land has occurred at a faster rate than the
global mean.
• 1.53°C Higher over 2006–2015.
• Current use of land and loss of biodiversity are
unprecedented in human history.
• Climate change will add to these challenges.
• Urgent action would buffer the negative impacts from
over-exploitation of resources.
• Restricting warming to "well below 2°C" would greatly
reduce the negative impacts of climate change on land.
Land provides the basis for human
livelihoods and well-being.
11
How we use land now
11
1212 12
• Gross emissions from agriculture, forestry and land use
(AFOLU) make up 1/3 of total global emissions.
• Land accounts for 44% of net anthropogenic methane
emissions.
• Grazing lands are responsible for more than one-third of
total anthropogenic nitrous oxide emissions and one-half
of agricultural emissions.
• Changes in land conditions from human use or climate
change in turn affect regional and global climate.
• Changes in land conditions modulate the likelihood,
intensity and duration of many extreme events.
Land and the climate
13
Land degradation and
desertification
1414
• Drylands currently cover 46% of global land and are home to 3 billion
people.
• The major human drivers of desertification are expansion of
croplands, unsustainable land management and increased pressure
on land from population/income growth.
• Land degradation is a driver of climate change through emission of
greenhouse gases and reduced carbon uptake.
• In some cases, land degradation can be avoided, reduced or
reversed by implementing sustainable land management, restoration
and rehabilitation practices.
• Lack of action to address land degradation will increase emissions
and reduce carbon sinks, inconsistent with the emission
reductions required to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.
• Large-scale biomass production for bioenergy increases
competition for land with potentially serious consequences for
food security and land degradation.
15
Climate change exacerbates:
• Desertification: Increased land surface air
temperature and evapotranspiration and
decreased precipitation amounts in
drylands have contributed to desertification
• Degradation: Increases in rainfall intensity,
flooding, drought frequency and severity,
heat stress, wind, sea-level rise and wave
action, and permafrost thaw can exacerbate
land degradation processes
Figure:
• Increases in global mean surface temperature
(GMST), relative to pre-industrial levels, affect
processes involved in desertification and land
degradation
• Examples: dryland water scarcity (desertification)
and soil erosion (land degradation)
SPM Figure 2 A
16
Coordinated action to tackle
climate change can
simultaneously improve land,
food security and nutrition, and
help to end hunger.
“
Food security:
17
Changes since 1961
17
18
Many response options can enhance food
security while advancing climate adaptation
and mitigation
• Sustainable production
• Diversification of the food system
• Consumption of healthy and
sustainable diets
• Reducing food loss and waste
Integrated supply and demand side
options can be scaled up in all segments
of the food system.
19
Better land management can play
its part in tackling climate change,
but it can’t do it all.
“
2020
“the stewardship and use of land
resources, including soils, water, animals
and plants, to meet changing human
needs, while simultaneously ensuring the
long-term productive potential of these
resources and the maintenance of their
environmental functions”
What is sustainable land management?
Many of sustainable land management actions make
strong economic sense.
2121
Responses by broad type
• Land management
• Value chain management
• Risk management
Responses by magnitude of impact (technical
potential)
• > 3 Gt CO2eq yr-1
• 0.3 – 3 Gt CO2eq yr-1
• < 0.3 Gt CO2eq yr-1
Responses by impact on land competition
• No or limited competition for land
• Those that rely on additional
land use change
We didn’t classify response options by mitigation/
adaptation: many options have multiple benefits
22
Responses with no or limited land competition:
many more co-benefits than adverse side effects
23 23
The impacts of responses involving additional land use
change depend on scale, implementation and governance
2424 24
There are limits to the ability to prevent and reverse
desertification and land degradation
• Where desertification results in the complete loss of land
productivity, the adaptation options available are limited
• For land degradation there are limited options to address: coastal
erosion, thawing of permafrost and extreme soil erosion
There are limits to the capacity of the land system to act as a
carbon sink (in terms of carbon stored in soils and biomass)
• Mature vegetation and soil carbon reservoirs reach saturation
points
• The carbon stored in these systems are vulnerable to loss due to
disturbance (e.g. climate events or poor land management)
Limits to Adaptation and Land
Based Carbon Sinks
2525 25
The big picture
• The potential for mitigating climate can only be realised if
agricultural emissions are included in mainstream climate
policy.
• Delayed action will mean more of a need to respond to land
challenges but less potential for land-based responses (due to
climate change and other pressures).
• Acting early will avert or minimise risks, reduce losses and
generate returns on investment but has challenges related to
technology, upscaling and barriers. There is enough knowledge
to act now.
• Measuring progress towards goals is important to decision-
making, adaptive governance & policy success.
• Responses are interlinked:
• Some have co-benefits or are more effective when paired.
• Not all options increase competition for land. Some response
options are less feasible than others.
2626
Engaging people and
good governance matter
• Indigenous and local knowledge can play a key role in
understanding climate processes, impacts and responses.
• Involving people in land and climate decision making
advances synergies and overcomes barriers to
adaptation and mitigation.
• Empowering women can bolster synergies among
household food security and sustainable land management.
• The significant social and political changes required
entail a wide range of governance mechanisms.
27
Land is under
growing human
pressure
Land is a part
of the solution
But land can’t
do it all
Land is where we live
28
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Website: http://ipcc.ch
IPCC Secretariat: ipcc-sec@wmo.int
IPCC Press Office: ipcc-media@wmo.int
WG III TSU: tsu@ipcc-wg3.ac.uk
Jim Skea and Minal Pathak
Working Group III
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change

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Climate Change and Land

  • 1. 1 Key findings and messages from the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land www.ipcc.ch/report/SRCCL Agricultural landscape between Ankara and Hattusha, Anatolia, Turkey (40°00' N – 33°35’ E) ©Yann Arthus-Bertrand | www.yannarthusbertrand.org | www.goodplanet.org Jim Skea, Co-Chair IPCC WG III Kuala Lumpur, 26th October #SRCCL
  • 2. 2 REPORT COVER IMAGE: Agricultural landscape between Ankara and Hattusha, Anatolia, Turkey (40°00' N – 33°35’ E) ©Yann Arthus-Bertrand | www.yannarthusbertrand.org | www.goodplanet.org2
  • 3. 33 “Climate Change and Land: An IPCC Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems” The long title mixes a variety of concepts….
  • 4. 44 “Climate Change and Land: An IPCC Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems” The long title mixes a variety of concepts….
  • 5. 55 “Climate Change and Land: An IPCC Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems” The long title mixes a variety of concepts….
  • 6. 66 “Climate Change and Land: An IPCC Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems” The long title mixes a variety of concepts….
  • 7. 7 Report Structure 1: Framing and context 2: Land-climate interactions 3: Desertification 4: Land degradation 5: Food security 6: Interlinkages between desertification, land degradation, food security and GHG fluxes: Synergies, trade-offs and integrated response options 7: Risk management and decision making in relation to sustainable development The report outline proposed by the scoping meeting was agreed, after some refinement, by the Panel
  • 8. 8 107 Authors 40% of CLAs are Female 52 Countries 53% Authors from Developing Countries 7,000 Scientific Publications Assessed 28,275 Review Comments SRCCLREPORTBYTHENUMBERS 8 Authors included: Scientists engaged with IPBES and UNCCD; FAO employees
  • 9. 9 Land is a critical resource – we rely on it for food, water, health and wellbeing – but it is already under growing human pressure. Climate change is adding to these pressures “
  • 10. 1010 10 • Warming over land has occurred at a faster rate than the global mean. • 1.53°C Higher over 2006–2015. • Current use of land and loss of biodiversity are unprecedented in human history. • Climate change will add to these challenges. • Urgent action would buffer the negative impacts from over-exploitation of resources. • Restricting warming to "well below 2°C" would greatly reduce the negative impacts of climate change on land. Land provides the basis for human livelihoods and well-being.
  • 11. 11 How we use land now 11
  • 12. 1212 12 • Gross emissions from agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) make up 1/3 of total global emissions. • Land accounts for 44% of net anthropogenic methane emissions. • Grazing lands are responsible for more than one-third of total anthropogenic nitrous oxide emissions and one-half of agricultural emissions. • Changes in land conditions from human use or climate change in turn affect regional and global climate. • Changes in land conditions modulate the likelihood, intensity and duration of many extreme events. Land and the climate
  • 14. 1414 • Drylands currently cover 46% of global land and are home to 3 billion people. • The major human drivers of desertification are expansion of croplands, unsustainable land management and increased pressure on land from population/income growth. • Land degradation is a driver of climate change through emission of greenhouse gases and reduced carbon uptake. • In some cases, land degradation can be avoided, reduced or reversed by implementing sustainable land management, restoration and rehabilitation practices. • Lack of action to address land degradation will increase emissions and reduce carbon sinks, inconsistent with the emission reductions required to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. • Large-scale biomass production for bioenergy increases competition for land with potentially serious consequences for food security and land degradation.
  • 15. 15 Climate change exacerbates: • Desertification: Increased land surface air temperature and evapotranspiration and decreased precipitation amounts in drylands have contributed to desertification • Degradation: Increases in rainfall intensity, flooding, drought frequency and severity, heat stress, wind, sea-level rise and wave action, and permafrost thaw can exacerbate land degradation processes Figure: • Increases in global mean surface temperature (GMST), relative to pre-industrial levels, affect processes involved in desertification and land degradation • Examples: dryland water scarcity (desertification) and soil erosion (land degradation) SPM Figure 2 A
  • 16. 16 Coordinated action to tackle climate change can simultaneously improve land, food security and nutrition, and help to end hunger. “ Food security:
  • 18. 18 Many response options can enhance food security while advancing climate adaptation and mitigation • Sustainable production • Diversification of the food system • Consumption of healthy and sustainable diets • Reducing food loss and waste Integrated supply and demand side options can be scaled up in all segments of the food system.
  • 19. 19 Better land management can play its part in tackling climate change, but it can’t do it all. “
  • 20. 2020 “the stewardship and use of land resources, including soils, water, animals and plants, to meet changing human needs, while simultaneously ensuring the long-term productive potential of these resources and the maintenance of their environmental functions” What is sustainable land management? Many of sustainable land management actions make strong economic sense.
  • 21. 2121 Responses by broad type • Land management • Value chain management • Risk management Responses by magnitude of impact (technical potential) • > 3 Gt CO2eq yr-1 • 0.3 – 3 Gt CO2eq yr-1 • < 0.3 Gt CO2eq yr-1 Responses by impact on land competition • No or limited competition for land • Those that rely on additional land use change We didn’t classify response options by mitigation/ adaptation: many options have multiple benefits
  • 22. 22 Responses with no or limited land competition: many more co-benefits than adverse side effects
  • 23. 23 23 The impacts of responses involving additional land use change depend on scale, implementation and governance
  • 24. 2424 24 There are limits to the ability to prevent and reverse desertification and land degradation • Where desertification results in the complete loss of land productivity, the adaptation options available are limited • For land degradation there are limited options to address: coastal erosion, thawing of permafrost and extreme soil erosion There are limits to the capacity of the land system to act as a carbon sink (in terms of carbon stored in soils and biomass) • Mature vegetation and soil carbon reservoirs reach saturation points • The carbon stored in these systems are vulnerable to loss due to disturbance (e.g. climate events or poor land management) Limits to Adaptation and Land Based Carbon Sinks
  • 25. 2525 25 The big picture • The potential for mitigating climate can only be realised if agricultural emissions are included in mainstream climate policy. • Delayed action will mean more of a need to respond to land challenges but less potential for land-based responses (due to climate change and other pressures). • Acting early will avert or minimise risks, reduce losses and generate returns on investment but has challenges related to technology, upscaling and barriers. There is enough knowledge to act now. • Measuring progress towards goals is important to decision- making, adaptive governance & policy success. • Responses are interlinked: • Some have co-benefits or are more effective when paired. • Not all options increase competition for land. Some response options are less feasible than others.
  • 26. 2626 Engaging people and good governance matter • Indigenous and local knowledge can play a key role in understanding climate processes, impacts and responses. • Involving people in land and climate decision making advances synergies and overcomes barriers to adaptation and mitigation. • Empowering women can bolster synergies among household food security and sustainable land management. • The significant social and political changes required entail a wide range of governance mechanisms.
  • 27. 27 Land is under growing human pressure Land is a part of the solution But land can’t do it all Land is where we live
  • 28. 28 FOR MORE INFORMATION: Website: http://ipcc.ch IPCC Secretariat: ipcc-sec@wmo.int IPCC Press Office: ipcc-media@wmo.int WG III TSU: tsu@ipcc-wg3.ac.uk Jim Skea and Minal Pathak Working Group III Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change