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RANDOMIZATION
Dr Roshni SS
OVERVIEW
 Benefits of randomization
 Methods of generation of allocation sequence
 Advantages and disadvantages
 Allocation concealment
HISTORY OF RANDOMIZATION
 RA Fischer – ‘Design of Experiments’ in 1935
- Agricultural research
- True treatment effect separated from other effects
 Sir Austin Bradford Hill
- First RCT of streptomycin in
pulmonary Tb – 1946
- Bed rest only: 4/52 cured
- Bed rest + streptomycin: 28/55 cured
DEFINITION OF RCT
 A clinical-epidemiological experiment in which subjects are
randomly allocated into groups, usually called test and control
groups, to receive or not to receive a preventive or a therapeutic
procedure or intervention ”
John M.Last, 2001
DEFINITION OF RANDOMIZATION
 Statistical procedure by which participants are allocated into groups
called study and control to receive or not receive an experimental
preventive/therapeutic procedure, manoeuvre, intervention.
 Heart of RCT ; only unique feature
 Allows equal chance for participants to get assigned to either group
 Group assignment can’t be predicted
RANDOMIZATION VS RANDOM SAMPLING
 Random sampling –random selection of study sample from
population
 External validity and Generalisability
 Randomization
Internal Validity
WHY RANDOMIZE?
 Difference in outcome between two groups can be explained as
1. Intervention exhibits a real effect
2. Outcome difference is solely due to chance
3. There is a systematic difference( or bias) b/w groups due to
factors other than intervention
o Randomization aims to obviate the third possibility.
GOAL OF RANDOMIZATION
 To eliminate possibility – investigator knows about next patient
allocation
 If known – bias in treatment assignment
 Selection bias
BENEFITS OF RANDOMIZATION
1. Prevent Selection Bias – selective enrolment of patients to trial
based on next treatment allocation
2. Ensuring comparability of groups
CONTD..
 Both measurable and immeasurable/unrecognised variables
 Randomization doesn’t guarantee comparability – role of chance
 Large group – tend to be similar
 Matching – only factors known to be important
3. Randomization guarantees that statistical tests of significance will
be valid .
CRITERIA FOR RANDOMIZATION
 Unpredictability
 Balance
 Simplicity
UNIT OF ANALYSIS IN RANDOMIZATION
 Individual people
 Groups
 CLUSTER RANDOMIZATION
 Eg – training of health professional
 Disadvantage – large sample size, ethical problems
 Order in which measurements are obtained from each participant
 Eg – evaluating effect of morphine in cancer patients - randomize the order
in which analgesia, adverse events, quality of life are assessed
RANDOMIZATION IN RCT
 Depends on
1. Generation of unpredictable randomized allocation sequence
2. Concealment of that sequence until assignment occurs
( Allocation Concealment)
WHAT IS NOT RANDOMIZATION
 Alternate assignment
 Quasirandom methods –
 DOB, Case record number, Date of presentation
 Systematic occurrences – no allocation concealment – selection bias
METHODS OF GENERATION OF ALLOCATION SEQUENCE
Fixed Procedures Dynamic / Adaptive Procedures
Simple randomization Urn Randomization
Restricted Randomization Covariate Adaptive Randomization
Stratified Randomization Response Adaptive Randomization
Minimization
SIMPLE RANDOMIZATION
 Analogous to repeated fair coin-tossing
 Preserves complete unpredictability
 Coin tossing, dice throwing, previously shuffled card, Table of
random numbers, Computer generated random numbers, STATA
 Adv – easy to implement
 Diasadv - In small samples highly disparate sample sizes in the
groups by chance alone
 Imbalance negligible with trial sizes greater than 200
TABLE OF RANDOM NUMBERS
RESTRICTED RANDOMIZATION
 Balanced randomization
 Groups of equal size
Methods
 Blocking
 Random Allocation Rule
 Replacement Randomization
BLOCK RANDOMIZATION
 Random permuted blocks
 Same size comparison groups throughout trial
 Steps
1. Select block size
2.List all possible permutations of treatment in a block
3.Random selection of blocks
 Method 2:
 Allocation ratio can be uneven
 Can be extended to more than one group
 Advantage - Balanced study arms even with small sample size
- Useful during interim analysis
 Disadvantage
 Last participants’ group in each block predictable if block size is known
 Unequal distribution of relevant covariates
 Longer block sixes (10/20) and random variation of bock size – preserve
unpredictability
RANDOM ALLOCATION RULE
 Simplest form
 Total sample size identified subset of sample to one group
remainder other group
 Represent one large permuted block
 Random assignment without replacement
 Restricted shuffle approach –cards prepared for each treatment as
per allocation ratio, kept in envelope and shuffled
 Unpredictability : >permuted block ; < simple random
 Disadvantage
 Equal size only at end of trial
 Chance confounding – trivial with larger sample size
REPLACEMENT RANDOMIZATION
 Earliest from of restricted randomization
 Simple randomisation
 Allowable disparity fixed
 Repeats simple randomisation scheme till desired balance achieved
 Advantage – easy, ensure reasonable balance , yields
unpredictability
 Disadvantage – do not ensure balance for interim analysis
STRATIFIED RANDOMIZATION
 To control influence of covariates
 Avoid imbalance on important prognostic factors
Generate separate block for
each combination of covariate
Subjects assigned to respective
blocks
Restricted randomisation in
each subset
CONTD...
 Stratification without restriction accomplishes nothing
 Useful in multicentric trials- stratification by centre
 Little use in large trials
 Useful in small trials
 Gain from stratification minimal once number of participants/ group > 50
 Disadvantage – Requires baseline characteristics of all, All participants to
be identified before group assignment,
ADAPTIVE / DYNAMIC RANDOMIZATION
 New participant is assigned to a particular treatment group by
taking into account the specific covariates and previous assignments
of participants.
 Here the participant has no equal chance , but a definite chance to
be in either of the groups
URN RANDOMIZATION
 Adaptive biased – coin design
 Alter probability based on magnitude of imbalance
 Start with two coloured balls in an urn
 One ball drawn at random and replaced
 Extra ball of opposite colour to the one selected added
 Process repeated
COVARIATE ADAPTIVE RANDOMIZATION
 First described by Taves
 Only 1st assignment random
 Remaining depends on specific covariate and previous assignment group
 Uses biased coin element at every allocation
 To make small groups closely similar
 Reduce covariate imbalance
 Disadvantage – decision to be made case by case
MINIMIZATION
 Described independently by Taves (1974) and Pocock and Simon
(1975).
 Eg - 3 prognostic factors – Old age, Diabetes, Co - drug
1 1 1
Treatment
A
Treatment
B
No of
patients
20 20
Total Points 15 13
Patient no 41
•40 years
•Non-Diabetic
•Co-drug
Treatment
A
Treatment
B
No of
patients
20 21
Total Points 15 14
 Advantages
 Offers better balancing than standard randomization methods.
 Can incorporate a larger number of stratifying factors than stratified
randomization methods.
 Disadvantages
 More complex than using other standard randomization methods.
 Randomization lists cannot be generated in advance.
RESPONSE ADAPTIVE RANDOMIZATION
 Randomize patients based on response of previous subjects
 Controversial and not commonly used
 Play-the-winner (PW) design
 When patient response determined quickly
 First subject treatment assigned by tossing a coin
 If response success, second patient receives same treatment, if
failure, other treatment
CONTD..
 Advantage - more receive better treatment
 Disadvantage - Investigator aware of next assignment
- Loss of statistical power if final sample size quite unequal
CONTD...
 Two – armed bandit
 Treatment assignment probabilities depend on observed success
probabilities at each time point
 Advantage – maximum number in superior treatment
 Disadvantage – unequal groups – loss of statistical power
UNEQUAL RANDOMIZATION
 When equal allocation to treatment and control group
economically/ clinically/ practically feasible
2:1 ratio- power 0.95 to 0.925
4:1 ratio- power 0.95 to 0.82
Ratio> 3:1 not useful; large sample size
FLOWCHART FOR SELECTING PROPER RANDOMIZATION TECHNIQUE
SAMPLE SIZE
Are there covariates that need to
be controlled?
Are participants enrolled to study
continually or all at same time
COVARIATE ADAPTIVE
RANDOMIZATION
BLOCK RANDOMIZATION
SIMPLE RANDOMIZATION
STRATIFIED RAMDOMIZATION
Small,
≤200
Large,
>200
NoYes
Same
time
continues
ALLOCATION CONCEALMENT
 Concealment of generated allocation sequence atleast until patients
have been assigned to their groups
 Shields those who admit participants to trial from
knowing upcoming assignment – eliminate BIAS
 Unpredictable allocation sequence generation
ineffective without allocation concealment
 Countless attempts made by researcher to
decipher the allocation concealment scheme
METHODS FOR ALLOCATION CONCEALMENT
 Sequentially numbered opaque sealed envelope (SNOSE)
 Envelope numbered in advance, opened sequentially, and only after the
participant’s name and other details are written on the envelope
 Use of carbon paper inside envelope
 Cardboard/aluminium foil inside envelope
 Sequentially numbered containers
 All containers tamper-proof, equal in weight & similar in appearance with
audit trail established.
CONTD...
 Central randomization
 Secure computer – assisted method
 Different persons perform different parts of the event
BLINDING
 Bias from errors of assessment of outcome. From 3 sources
 Participants
 Observer bias
 Bias in evaluation
o For proper assessment of outcome BLINDING
BLINDING VS ALLOCATION CONCEALMENT
Allocation concealment Blinding
Prevent selection bias Prevent ascertainment bias
Can always be implemented Can’t be implemented always
Protect randomization sequence
before and until the interventions
are given to study participants
Protect after allocation
CONCLUSION
 Randomization is the only unique feature of RCT
 Only way to avoid selection and confounding biases
 Generation of randomization sequence takes little time and
contribute much to scientific accuracy and credibility
 Simple, Restricted, Stratified and Adaptive randomization
techniques are the commonly used methods
 Proper randomization hinges on adequate allocation concealment
REFERENCES
 Park K. Park’s textbook of preventive and social medicine. 24th ed. Jabalpur
M/s Banarasidas Bhanot Publishers 2016; p.75-87
 Schulz KF, Grimes DA. Generation of allocation sequences in randomised
trials: chance, not choice. The Lancet. 2002 Feb 9 ; 359: 515–19
 Leon Gordis. Epidemiology. 5th ed. Elsevier Saunders 2014; p.179-242
 Schulz KF, Grimes DA. Allocation concealment in randomised trials: defending
against deciphering. The Lancet. 2002 Feb 16 ; 359: 614–18
 Schulz KF, Grimes DA. Blinding in randomised trials: hiding who got what. The
Lancet. 2002 Feb 23; 359: 696–700
 Arun Bhatt. Evolution of Clinical Research: A History Before and Beyond
James Lind . Perspect Clin Res. 2010 Jan-Mar; 1(1): 6–10
 Armitage P. Fisher, Bradford Hill, and randomization. International Journal
of Epidemiology 2003;32:925–928
 Baghbaninaghadehi F, Armijo-Olivo S, Woodhouse L. Fundamentals of
randomization in clinical trial. International Journal of Advanced
Nutritional Health Science. 2016 Feb 22;4:174-87.
 Jadad AR, Enkin MW. Randomized controlled trials: questions, answers and
musings. John Wiley & Sons; 2008 Apr 15.
THANK YOU

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Randomization

  • 2. OVERVIEW  Benefits of randomization  Methods of generation of allocation sequence  Advantages and disadvantages  Allocation concealment
  • 3. HISTORY OF RANDOMIZATION  RA Fischer – ‘Design of Experiments’ in 1935 - Agricultural research - True treatment effect separated from other effects  Sir Austin Bradford Hill - First RCT of streptomycin in pulmonary Tb – 1946 - Bed rest only: 4/52 cured - Bed rest + streptomycin: 28/55 cured
  • 4. DEFINITION OF RCT  A clinical-epidemiological experiment in which subjects are randomly allocated into groups, usually called test and control groups, to receive or not to receive a preventive or a therapeutic procedure or intervention ” John M.Last, 2001
  • 5. DEFINITION OF RANDOMIZATION  Statistical procedure by which participants are allocated into groups called study and control to receive or not receive an experimental preventive/therapeutic procedure, manoeuvre, intervention.  Heart of RCT ; only unique feature  Allows equal chance for participants to get assigned to either group  Group assignment can’t be predicted
  • 6. RANDOMIZATION VS RANDOM SAMPLING  Random sampling –random selection of study sample from population  External validity and Generalisability  Randomization Internal Validity
  • 7. WHY RANDOMIZE?  Difference in outcome between two groups can be explained as 1. Intervention exhibits a real effect 2. Outcome difference is solely due to chance 3. There is a systematic difference( or bias) b/w groups due to factors other than intervention o Randomization aims to obviate the third possibility.
  • 8. GOAL OF RANDOMIZATION  To eliminate possibility – investigator knows about next patient allocation  If known – bias in treatment assignment  Selection bias
  • 9. BENEFITS OF RANDOMIZATION 1. Prevent Selection Bias – selective enrolment of patients to trial based on next treatment allocation 2. Ensuring comparability of groups
  • 10. CONTD..  Both measurable and immeasurable/unrecognised variables  Randomization doesn’t guarantee comparability – role of chance  Large group – tend to be similar  Matching – only factors known to be important 3. Randomization guarantees that statistical tests of significance will be valid .
  • 11. CRITERIA FOR RANDOMIZATION  Unpredictability  Balance  Simplicity
  • 12. UNIT OF ANALYSIS IN RANDOMIZATION  Individual people  Groups  CLUSTER RANDOMIZATION  Eg – training of health professional  Disadvantage – large sample size, ethical problems  Order in which measurements are obtained from each participant  Eg – evaluating effect of morphine in cancer patients - randomize the order in which analgesia, adverse events, quality of life are assessed
  • 13. RANDOMIZATION IN RCT  Depends on 1. Generation of unpredictable randomized allocation sequence 2. Concealment of that sequence until assignment occurs ( Allocation Concealment)
  • 14. WHAT IS NOT RANDOMIZATION  Alternate assignment  Quasirandom methods –  DOB, Case record number, Date of presentation  Systematic occurrences – no allocation concealment – selection bias
  • 15. METHODS OF GENERATION OF ALLOCATION SEQUENCE Fixed Procedures Dynamic / Adaptive Procedures Simple randomization Urn Randomization Restricted Randomization Covariate Adaptive Randomization Stratified Randomization Response Adaptive Randomization Minimization
  • 16. SIMPLE RANDOMIZATION  Analogous to repeated fair coin-tossing  Preserves complete unpredictability  Coin tossing, dice throwing, previously shuffled card, Table of random numbers, Computer generated random numbers, STATA
  • 17.  Adv – easy to implement  Diasadv - In small samples highly disparate sample sizes in the groups by chance alone  Imbalance negligible with trial sizes greater than 200
  • 18. TABLE OF RANDOM NUMBERS
  • 19. RESTRICTED RANDOMIZATION  Balanced randomization  Groups of equal size Methods  Blocking  Random Allocation Rule  Replacement Randomization
  • 20. BLOCK RANDOMIZATION  Random permuted blocks  Same size comparison groups throughout trial  Steps 1. Select block size
  • 21. 2.List all possible permutations of treatment in a block 3.Random selection of blocks
  • 22.  Method 2:  Allocation ratio can be uneven  Can be extended to more than one group
  • 23.  Advantage - Balanced study arms even with small sample size - Useful during interim analysis  Disadvantage  Last participants’ group in each block predictable if block size is known  Unequal distribution of relevant covariates  Longer block sixes (10/20) and random variation of bock size – preserve unpredictability
  • 24. RANDOM ALLOCATION RULE  Simplest form  Total sample size identified subset of sample to one group remainder other group  Represent one large permuted block  Random assignment without replacement
  • 25.  Restricted shuffle approach –cards prepared for each treatment as per allocation ratio, kept in envelope and shuffled  Unpredictability : >permuted block ; < simple random  Disadvantage  Equal size only at end of trial  Chance confounding – trivial with larger sample size
  • 26. REPLACEMENT RANDOMIZATION  Earliest from of restricted randomization  Simple randomisation  Allowable disparity fixed  Repeats simple randomisation scheme till desired balance achieved  Advantage – easy, ensure reasonable balance , yields unpredictability  Disadvantage – do not ensure balance for interim analysis
  • 27. STRATIFIED RANDOMIZATION  To control influence of covariates  Avoid imbalance on important prognostic factors Generate separate block for each combination of covariate Subjects assigned to respective blocks Restricted randomisation in each subset
  • 28. CONTD...  Stratification without restriction accomplishes nothing  Useful in multicentric trials- stratification by centre  Little use in large trials  Useful in small trials  Gain from stratification minimal once number of participants/ group > 50  Disadvantage – Requires baseline characteristics of all, All participants to be identified before group assignment,
  • 29. ADAPTIVE / DYNAMIC RANDOMIZATION  New participant is assigned to a particular treatment group by taking into account the specific covariates and previous assignments of participants.  Here the participant has no equal chance , but a definite chance to be in either of the groups
  • 30. URN RANDOMIZATION  Adaptive biased – coin design  Alter probability based on magnitude of imbalance  Start with two coloured balls in an urn  One ball drawn at random and replaced  Extra ball of opposite colour to the one selected added  Process repeated
  • 31.
  • 32. COVARIATE ADAPTIVE RANDOMIZATION  First described by Taves  Only 1st assignment random  Remaining depends on specific covariate and previous assignment group  Uses biased coin element at every allocation  To make small groups closely similar  Reduce covariate imbalance  Disadvantage – decision to be made case by case
  • 33. MINIMIZATION  Described independently by Taves (1974) and Pocock and Simon (1975).  Eg - 3 prognostic factors – Old age, Diabetes, Co - drug 1 1 1 Treatment A Treatment B No of patients 20 20 Total Points 15 13 Patient no 41 •40 years •Non-Diabetic •Co-drug Treatment A Treatment B No of patients 20 21 Total Points 15 14
  • 34.  Advantages  Offers better balancing than standard randomization methods.  Can incorporate a larger number of stratifying factors than stratified randomization methods.  Disadvantages  More complex than using other standard randomization methods.  Randomization lists cannot be generated in advance.
  • 35. RESPONSE ADAPTIVE RANDOMIZATION  Randomize patients based on response of previous subjects  Controversial and not commonly used  Play-the-winner (PW) design  When patient response determined quickly  First subject treatment assigned by tossing a coin  If response success, second patient receives same treatment, if failure, other treatment
  • 36. CONTD..  Advantage - more receive better treatment  Disadvantage - Investigator aware of next assignment - Loss of statistical power if final sample size quite unequal
  • 37. CONTD...  Two – armed bandit  Treatment assignment probabilities depend on observed success probabilities at each time point  Advantage – maximum number in superior treatment  Disadvantage – unequal groups – loss of statistical power
  • 38. UNEQUAL RANDOMIZATION  When equal allocation to treatment and control group economically/ clinically/ practically feasible 2:1 ratio- power 0.95 to 0.925 4:1 ratio- power 0.95 to 0.82 Ratio> 3:1 not useful; large sample size
  • 39. FLOWCHART FOR SELECTING PROPER RANDOMIZATION TECHNIQUE SAMPLE SIZE Are there covariates that need to be controlled? Are participants enrolled to study continually or all at same time COVARIATE ADAPTIVE RANDOMIZATION BLOCK RANDOMIZATION SIMPLE RANDOMIZATION STRATIFIED RAMDOMIZATION Small, ≤200 Large, >200 NoYes Same time continues
  • 40. ALLOCATION CONCEALMENT  Concealment of generated allocation sequence atleast until patients have been assigned to their groups  Shields those who admit participants to trial from knowing upcoming assignment – eliminate BIAS  Unpredictable allocation sequence generation ineffective without allocation concealment  Countless attempts made by researcher to decipher the allocation concealment scheme
  • 41. METHODS FOR ALLOCATION CONCEALMENT  Sequentially numbered opaque sealed envelope (SNOSE)  Envelope numbered in advance, opened sequentially, and only after the participant’s name and other details are written on the envelope  Use of carbon paper inside envelope  Cardboard/aluminium foil inside envelope  Sequentially numbered containers  All containers tamper-proof, equal in weight & similar in appearance with audit trail established.
  • 42. CONTD...  Central randomization  Secure computer – assisted method  Different persons perform different parts of the event
  • 43. BLINDING  Bias from errors of assessment of outcome. From 3 sources  Participants  Observer bias  Bias in evaluation o For proper assessment of outcome BLINDING
  • 44. BLINDING VS ALLOCATION CONCEALMENT Allocation concealment Blinding Prevent selection bias Prevent ascertainment bias Can always be implemented Can’t be implemented always Protect randomization sequence before and until the interventions are given to study participants Protect after allocation
  • 45. CONCLUSION  Randomization is the only unique feature of RCT  Only way to avoid selection and confounding biases  Generation of randomization sequence takes little time and contribute much to scientific accuracy and credibility  Simple, Restricted, Stratified and Adaptive randomization techniques are the commonly used methods  Proper randomization hinges on adequate allocation concealment
  • 46. REFERENCES  Park K. Park’s textbook of preventive and social medicine. 24th ed. Jabalpur M/s Banarasidas Bhanot Publishers 2016; p.75-87  Schulz KF, Grimes DA. Generation of allocation sequences in randomised trials: chance, not choice. The Lancet. 2002 Feb 9 ; 359: 515–19  Leon Gordis. Epidemiology. 5th ed. Elsevier Saunders 2014; p.179-242  Schulz KF, Grimes DA. Allocation concealment in randomised trials: defending against deciphering. The Lancet. 2002 Feb 16 ; 359: 614–18  Schulz KF, Grimes DA. Blinding in randomised trials: hiding who got what. The Lancet. 2002 Feb 23; 359: 696–700
  • 47.  Arun Bhatt. Evolution of Clinical Research: A History Before and Beyond James Lind . Perspect Clin Res. 2010 Jan-Mar; 1(1): 6–10  Armitage P. Fisher, Bradford Hill, and randomization. International Journal of Epidemiology 2003;32:925–928  Baghbaninaghadehi F, Armijo-Olivo S, Woodhouse L. Fundamentals of randomization in clinical trial. International Journal of Advanced Nutritional Health Science. 2016 Feb 22;4:174-87.  Jadad AR, Enkin MW. Randomized controlled trials: questions, answers and musings. John Wiley & Sons; 2008 Apr 15.

Editor's Notes

  1. Results favoured streptomycin (p=0.0001)
  2. Unpredict - Each participant has the same chance of receiving any of the interventions. • Allocation is carried out using a chance mechanism so that neither the participant nor the investigator will know in advance which will be assigned Balance - Treatment groups are of a similar size & constitution, groups are alike in all important aspects and only differ in the intervention each group receives Simplic - Easy for investigator/staff to implement
  3. n other cases, investigators may decide to randomise not only individuals or groups of individuals, but also the order in which the measurements are obtained from each participant. For instance, in an RCT evaluating the effects of morphine on cancer pain, the investigators could randomise the order in which analgesia, adverse effects, and quality of life are assessed.
  4. Unbiased and
  5. .( eg.male , female distribution in 2 groups will not be comparable. Imbalance in covariates reduces the power of the study.) block size – multiple of treatment group
  6. Blocking gives balance but rarely comparable groups – affectresults – induce bias – reduce power
  7. Too many covariates create imbalance The imbalance begins when the number of blocks approaches half the sample size…diadv--. Analysis is difficult
  8. Efron - American statistician....Usual coin – 0.5/0.5 prob...Unpredictability similar to simple randomization
  9. Suppoetrs and detractors, baseline adaptive, temprary asiignment to both groups – assign to group with minimum perason chi square goodness of fit statistics – conventional method
  10. It called minimization because imbalance in the distribution of covariates are minimized. .....good method to limit imbalance in relatively small randomized clinical trials with more important prognostic factors (covariates).
  11. Better balance - Treatment arms are balanced with respect to predefined patient factors as well as for the number of patients in each group. Allocating patients to treatment via minimization is more complex  Randomization lists cannot be generated in advance when minimization is used. Each time a patient enters a trial, a computer must run the minimization algorithm to assign the patient to the appropriate treatment
  12. PW- if investgtr feel stronlgy new Rx is better; outcome adaptive
  13. A proper sequence of procedures using opaque concealed envelopes is shown in Figure