With great expectation and excitement Jason Clay, Senior Vice President at the World Wildlife Fund (WWF-US), took to the stage at RBF Jakarta. His presence was a clear highlight for the more than 500 delegates present. He urged participants to tackle the enormous challenge of increasing sustainable agricultural production, stating, “By 2050, 70% of the world’s population will live in cities - more than the current global population – every farmer will need to feed more people than they do today, yet half of farmers right now don’t earn enough to feed their own families. We must create better livelihoods for farmers balancing increased global food demand with an ever more fragile environment.”

1. Jason Clay
SVP Markets
WWF-US
Thinking
globally
Food
Farm
Forest
Community

2. “You can’t wake a person
who’s pretending to sleep”
Oromo proverb

3. 40 years =
8,000 years
global food

4. is already the biggest threat
food production

11. freeze
the footprint of food

12. x 1 = 7
x2 = 18

13. 1 Time to increase GDP per capita (in PPP terms) from 1,300 to 2,600 USD Source: Angus Maddison, University of Groningen
Britain (1700-1855)
US (1820-1873)
India (1989-2006)
China (1983-1995)
Population at start
of growth period
9M
10M
822M
1,023M
Years to double
GDP per capita1
155
53
17
12
The China phenomenon
China doubling of GDP
was 12x the speed of
Britain during the
Industrial Revolution at
100x the scale
400 million
lifted out of poverty

14. 260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2011
World War I
1970s oil shock
Postwar
depression
Great
Depression
Source: Grilli and Yang; Stephan Pfaffenzeller; World Bank; International Monetary Fund (IMF); Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD); UN
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); UN Comtrade; McKinsey analysis
World War II
Commodity prices

15. Source: The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Advancing Global Food Security in the Face of a Changing Climate, Gerald C. Nelson, March 2014
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
FoodPriceIndex
Burundi (1)
Somalia (5)
India (4)
Mauritania (2)
Mozambique (6)
Yemen (12)
Cameroon (40)
Sudan (3)
Haiti (5), Egypt (3), Cote d’Ivoire (1)
Somalia (5)
Tunisia (1)
India (1)
Sudan (1) Mozambique (13)
Tunisia (300+)
Libya (10000+)
Egypt (800+)
Algeria (4), Arabia (1)
Mauritania (1), Sudan (1),
Yemen (300+) Oman (2), Morocco (5)
Iraq (29), Bahrain (31)
Syria (900+)
Uganda (5)
Food prices & food riots, 2004-12

16. the issue isn’t
what to think
it’s how to think

17. 40%for food
cropland
pasture
Source: UMN Global Landscapes Initiative

18. 5%desert

19. 18%mountains,
lakes, rivers

20. 2%cities

21. 12%parks

22. 23%more for
food by 2050

23. more with
less
we must
make
production
more
efficient

24. by 2050
double net food availability

25. productivity & efficiency
and
waste & consumption

26. On a finite planet,
should consumers
have a choice
about sustainable
products?
or should
all choices
be sustainable?

27. 1 out of 3 calories
waste

28. Photo: World Bank
Loess Plateau - 1985 Loess Plateau - 2005
rebuild
soils
250 M hectares
by 2030

29. “it’s not if genetics,
but which genetics”
genetics

30. 100 times better
better practices

31. which gives us more food?

32. recognizing the best
or
moving the rest?

33. government
regulation
voluntary
standards
numberofproducers
performance shift
Reward the best, or move the rest?
worse average better

34. intangible values
organic
non-GMO
smallholder
no child labor
deforestation
physical values
weights and measures
quality
color
foreign matter
health and safety
Traded commodities – then and now

35. climate change &
agriculture

36. Source: Armando Isaac Martinez, a.i.martinez@cgiar.org; Narioski Castro
Good
Marginal
Barely
Suitability
Very good
Excellent
Current
Suitability of cocoa production

37. Source: Armando Isaac Martinez, a.i.martinez@cgiar.org; Narioski Castro
Less suitable
Much less
Suitability
Change
No change
More suitable
2030
Suitability of cocoa production

38. in the short term
climate smart agriculture =
efficient production

39. in the medium term,
producers change crops

40. • Cocoa—deforestation & production
• Government—make exports legal
• The private sector
‒ Long-term contracts
‒ 3-year grace period with salary
• Focus on West Africa & grafting
Rehabilitating cocoa
Photo: Alamy

41. challenges
for animal protein

42. Chicken – Improvement evolution
1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 2045*
Conversion – kg feed/kg live 4.7 4.0 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.6
Mortality % 18% 10% 6% 5% 4% 3%
Age (days) 112 84 63 49 42 40
Live commercial weight - kg 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.4 3.2
Source: Dr. Paul Aho, Novus Poultry Roundtable: Feeding the World and the Role of Poultry, January 2010
Poultry – efficiency matters
*projected

43. …to optimizing key ones
shift from
maximizing one variable…

44. sustainability,
from niche
to norm

45. risk
both availability and reputation
the issue is

46. 0
20
40
60
80
100
1975 1985 1995 2005 2009
17%
83%
32%
68%
68%
32%
80%
20%
81%
19%
Tangible assets Intangible assets
Source: Ocean Tomo
percent
Components of S&P 500 Market Value

47. salmon
aquaculture

48. Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

49. WILDLIFE
tigers
elephants
rhinos
MINERALS
gold
coltan
diamonds
SEAFOOD
bluefin tuna
demersal fishes
shrimp and prawns
FORESTS
pulp
timber
mangroves
PLANTATIONS
palm oil
soy
beef
Illegally produced

50. Illegality ‒ Thailand &
shrimp
• Slavery in Thai fishing
• Touches 90% of Thai shrimp feed
• 20% of US shrimp imports are Thai
• 1 in 5 shrimp consumed in the US
is produced with slave labor

51. “If you don’t know where you’re going,
any road will get you there.”

52. think about it