Máximo Torero POLICY SEMINAR Making agrifood systems more resilient to shocks and stresses Co-Organized by IFPRI and FAO North America JAN 19, 2022 - 9:30 TO 11:00AM EST

1. Making agrifood systems more resilient to
shocks and stresses
Maximo Torero
Chief Economist, DDCE
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations
Washington, DC | January 19th, 2022
THE STATE OF FOOD AND
AGRICULTURE 2021

2. What is new in this report?
Provides a definition of agrifood systems’ resilience and a framework for analysing it
Introduces a suite of indicators for over 140 countries, measuring resilience of national
agrifood systems
It also provides guiding principles for building more resilient agrifood systems

3. Understanding resilience of agrifood systems
PREVENT
ANTICIPATE
ADAPT
TRANSFORM
Resilience capacities
ABSORB

4. Measuring absorptive capacity – a set of indicators
SOFA 2021 measures the absorptive capacity of countries’:
Primary production → Primary Production Flexibility Index (PPFI)
Food supply → Dietary Sourcing Flexibility Index (DSFI)
Transport networks
Economic access to healthy diets

5. The absorptive capacity of the primary agriculture sector
The capacity of a country’s primary production sector to absorb shocks depends on the diversity of
commodities produced and of output markets.
Diversity
of
commodities
produced
Diversity of output markets
Absorptive capacity
Country A
Country B

6. Primary Production Flexibility Index (PPFI), for protein
Blue oval: high PPFI with very
low contribution of exports and
very high domestic diversity
Green oval: high PPFI with
diversity in both domestic and
export markets
Purple oval: low PPFI driven
exclusively by domestic market
diversity
Greater absorptive
capacity

7. The absorptive capacity of a country’s food supply
The absorptive capacity of countries’ food supply depends on the diversity of domestic production
and stocks, and of imports and trade partners.
Diversity
of
domestic
production
and
stocks
Diversity of imports and trade partners
Absorptive capacity
Country A
Country B

8. Dietary Sourcing Flexibility Index (DSFI), for kilocalories
▪ Countries diversify food
sources in different ways
▪ Effectiveness of
diversification does not
depend much on country
size or income level
High-income countries
Upper-middle-income countries
Lower-middle-income countries
Low-income countries
Greater absorptive
capacity

9. Robust transport networks guarantee physical access to food
Potentially increase the cost of food affecting 845 million people
Increase food travel time – i.e. travel time between where food is produced
(origin) and where it is supplied (destination) – by 20 percent or more in
many countries
Robust transport networks support resilience and guarantee physical access to food at local level.
Yet, closing a critical transport route could:

10. People unable to afford, or at risk of not affording, a healthy diet
Approximately 1 billion people will be unable to afford a healthy diet if a shock
were to reduce their income by a third, adding to the already 3 billion people who
currently cannot
▪ vast majority (95%) of people “at-risk” are found in middle-income countries
▪ In low-income countries, an additional 62 million people would be at risk of
not affording even an energy-sufficient diet in the event of a such a shock

11. Where in the world do these people live?
~117
MILLION
9%
of total
population
AFRICA
~87
MILLION
15%
of total
population
AMERICAS
~731
MILLION
17%
of total
population
ASIA
~22
MILLION
3%
of total
population
EUROPE
~0.2
MILLION
1%
of total
population
OCEANIA
At risk
At risk
At risk
At risk
At risk
Unable to
afford
21%
2%
Unable to
afford
80%
Unable to
afford
2%
Unable to
afford
44%
Unable to
afford

12. From 2011 to now – from awareness to action
Resilient food supply chains are key to ensure a stable flow of food
▪ Building diverse and well-connected food supply chains will vary by type of food supply chain
▪ It will require costly investments and there may be trade-offs with efficiency and inclusiveness;
many small and medium agrifood enterprises (SMAEs) may be pushed out of business
Minimizing these trade-offs, or even turn them into synergies, requires:
Coordination and organization Government support
❖ Traditional ❖ Transitional ❖ Modern

13. From 2011 to now – from awareness to action
Household resilience – an objective in its own right
Access to
education
Access to basic services
(e.g. clean water)
Asset
ownership
▪ Strategies will depend on households’ socio-economic characteristics, social protection
and other support programmes, and whether they primarily sell or buy food
Main drivers of rural household resilience:
Interventions are especially key to households comprising mainly women

14. From 2011 to now – from awareness to action
Entry points for building resilient agrifood systems
Resilience involves preparing for disruptions
Resilience building is a system-wide, multi-risk, multi-actor and
multisectoral approach
Broader policy issues have important implications for resilience
▪ Ensuring diversity in agrifood systems
▪ Managing connectivity
▪ Building food supply chain resilience
▪ Building the resilience of small-scale producers and vulnerable households

15. Thank you
To consult the SOFA series from 1947
www.fao.org/publications/sofa