“Beyond Experiments: General Equilibrium Simulation Methods for Impact Evaluation" presented by Xinshen Diao, IFPRI and Edward Taylor, University of California at the ReSAKSS-Asia Conference, Nov 14-16, 2011, in Kathmandu, Nepal.
10th Alex Marketing Club (Forecasting) by Dr. Haitham Maraei 6 Jan-2018Mahmoud Bahgat
Forecasting is an important part of marketing and business planning. There are many techniques for forecasting, including both qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitative methods include surveys, expert opinions, and market experiments, while quantitative time series methods analyze past trends and patterns to predict the future. Effective forecasting requires understanding factors like demand trends, seasonality, elasticity, and uncertainty. The summary provides an overview of key concepts and challenges in forecasting for marketing and business.
1. Market systems include interconnected value chains that impact broader economic changes through multiplier effects. They interact with other systems like health, education, socio-cultural, and ecosystems so that changes in one system can affect others.
2. Households and communities are also systems that make decisions influenced by incentives, expectations, norms, and constraints. Understanding how these systems interact within markets can help achieve development goals.
3. Market systems have "soft" boundaries as they contain sub-systems and connect to other systems. The intervention space must engage actors needed to make the market competitive, inclusive and resilient based on market analysis and a theory of change.
The document discusses various econometric methods used to study markets, including conjoint analysis, factor analysis, discriminant analysis, cost and return analysis, price spreads, producer price index, multiple regression analysis, and marketing efficiency measures like Shepherd's formula and marketing margin-cost ratio. Conjoint analysis determines how people value product attributes. Factor analysis groups correlated variables. Discriminant analysis predicts outcomes for categorical dependent variables. Multiple regression analyzes relationships between independent and dependent metrics. Other sections define key marketing terms and formulas.
Backtesting - Measuring the Effectiveness of your ALLLLibby Bierman
Backtesting is an exercise that compares the actual outcome with model forecasts during a defined period, a period of time that was not used to develop the methodology. In these slides, financial institutions learn about backtesting their ALL or allowance for loan and lease losses.
Biosight: Quantitative Methods for Policy Analysis using GAMSIFPRI-EPTD
The document summarizes a workshop on quantitative methods in agricultural and resource economics to be held from April 28th to May 2nd 2014 at the ICRAF Campus in Nairobi. The workshop aims to (1) provide an overview of quantitative models that can address problems in agricultural economics, (2) equip participants with tools to adapt these models to their own research, and (3) help participants strengthen their quantitative skills and understanding of the economic foundations of these methods. The workshop will cover models at micro and macro levels, including static and dynamic approaches.
Etop analysis(ENVIRONMENT THREAT AND OPPORTUNITY PROFILE (ETOP)Ajeenkya D Y Patil
Definition of environment
Overview of environment scanning
Techniques of environment scanning
Environment means the surroundings, external objects, influences or circumstances under which someone or some thing exits.
Environmental scanning is a process of gathering, analyzing, and dispensing information for tactical or strategic purposes.
It is a process of dividing the environment into different sectors and then analyzing the impact of each sector on the organization.
Steve Jobs was fired from Apple after a disagreement over the company's direction. He went on to establish Pixar and Next, then returned to a struggling Apple after it nearly went bankrupt. The document discusses how undertaking environmental analysis can help companies gain strategic advantages by understanding changes in their business environment and developing long-term strategies. It outlines techniques like SWOT analysis, trend analysis, and scenario development that companies can use to scan, monitor, and forecast changes in order to strategically assess opportunities and threats.
The StarMine Analyst Revisions Model (ARM) is an improved stock ranking system that predicts future analyst earnings estimate revisions. It incorporates more accurate earnings predictions using StarMine's SmartEstimate service. It also includes estimates over multiple time periods for earnings as well as other financial metrics. Additionally, it considers changes in analyst recommendations. Historically, the top decile of stocks ranked by ARM has outperformed the bottom decile by 29% annually since 1995, demonstrating its ability to predict drivers of future stock returns.
10th Alex Marketing Club (Forecasting) by Dr. Haitham Maraei 6 Jan-2018Mahmoud Bahgat
Forecasting is an important part of marketing and business planning. There are many techniques for forecasting, including both qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitative methods include surveys, expert opinions, and market experiments, while quantitative time series methods analyze past trends and patterns to predict the future. Effective forecasting requires understanding factors like demand trends, seasonality, elasticity, and uncertainty. The summary provides an overview of key concepts and challenges in forecasting for marketing and business.
1. Market systems include interconnected value chains that impact broader economic changes through multiplier effects. They interact with other systems like health, education, socio-cultural, and ecosystems so that changes in one system can affect others.
2. Households and communities are also systems that make decisions influenced by incentives, expectations, norms, and constraints. Understanding how these systems interact within markets can help achieve development goals.
3. Market systems have "soft" boundaries as they contain sub-systems and connect to other systems. The intervention space must engage actors needed to make the market competitive, inclusive and resilient based on market analysis and a theory of change.
The document discusses various econometric methods used to study markets, including conjoint analysis, factor analysis, discriminant analysis, cost and return analysis, price spreads, producer price index, multiple regression analysis, and marketing efficiency measures like Shepherd's formula and marketing margin-cost ratio. Conjoint analysis determines how people value product attributes. Factor analysis groups correlated variables. Discriminant analysis predicts outcomes for categorical dependent variables. Multiple regression analyzes relationships between independent and dependent metrics. Other sections define key marketing terms and formulas.
Backtesting - Measuring the Effectiveness of your ALLLLibby Bierman
Backtesting is an exercise that compares the actual outcome with model forecasts during a defined period, a period of time that was not used to develop the methodology. In these slides, financial institutions learn about backtesting their ALL or allowance for loan and lease losses.
Biosight: Quantitative Methods for Policy Analysis using GAMSIFPRI-EPTD
The document summarizes a workshop on quantitative methods in agricultural and resource economics to be held from April 28th to May 2nd 2014 at the ICRAF Campus in Nairobi. The workshop aims to (1) provide an overview of quantitative models that can address problems in agricultural economics, (2) equip participants with tools to adapt these models to their own research, and (3) help participants strengthen their quantitative skills and understanding of the economic foundations of these methods. The workshop will cover models at micro and macro levels, including static and dynamic approaches.
Etop analysis(ENVIRONMENT THREAT AND OPPORTUNITY PROFILE (ETOP)Ajeenkya D Y Patil
Definition of environment
Overview of environment scanning
Techniques of environment scanning
Environment means the surroundings, external objects, influences or circumstances under which someone or some thing exits.
Environmental scanning is a process of gathering, analyzing, and dispensing information for tactical or strategic purposes.
It is a process of dividing the environment into different sectors and then analyzing the impact of each sector on the organization.
Steve Jobs was fired from Apple after a disagreement over the company's direction. He went on to establish Pixar and Next, then returned to a struggling Apple after it nearly went bankrupt. The document discusses how undertaking environmental analysis can help companies gain strategic advantages by understanding changes in their business environment and developing long-term strategies. It outlines techniques like SWOT analysis, trend analysis, and scenario development that companies can use to scan, monitor, and forecast changes in order to strategically assess opportunities and threats.
The StarMine Analyst Revisions Model (ARM) is an improved stock ranking system that predicts future analyst earnings estimate revisions. It incorporates more accurate earnings predictions using StarMine's SmartEstimate service. It also includes estimates over multiple time periods for earnings as well as other financial metrics. Additionally, it considers changes in analyst recommendations. Historically, the top decile of stocks ranked by ARM has outperformed the bottom decile by 29% annually since 1995, demonstrating its ability to predict drivers of future stock returns.
Model Performance Monitoring and Back-Testing as a Business and Risk Manageme...Jonathan Harris
Presentation given at the Risk USA Conference in November 2011, New York, New York. Includes regulatory and business best practices concerning model performance management along with examples of creative approaches to dealing with tricky issues.
This document discusses various research methods including experimental, analytical, survey, and historical research. Experimental research involves manipulating variables to determine their relationship while controlling for other factors. Analytical research uses mathematical or statistical models to test hypotheses and interpret quantitative data relationships. Survey research directly collects data through methods like questionnaires. Historical research reconstructs past events, institutions, or trends to understand the present.
This document discusses various tools that can be used for market analysis. It outlines factors in the micro and macro environment that can affect an organization. These include competition in the micro environment and broader political, economic, social, technological, and environmental factors in the macro environment. The document also discusses analyzing an organization's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT analysis). Additional tools covered include product analysis, portfolio analysis using the Boston Matrix, competitor analysis, and evaluating trends in the marketplace.
Environmental scanning is the process of gathering, analyzing, and sharing information about a company's external environment for strategic purposes. There are three types of environmental scanning: ad-hoc scanning for crises, regular scheduled scanning, and continuous scanning. Environmental scanning examines both the macro environment including political, economic, social, and technological factors (PEST analysis), as well as the micro environment including competitors, customers, and a company's internal environment. Environmental scanning helps managers predict future market conditions to make strategic decisions.
This document discusses various techniques for environmental scanning and monitoring, including SWOT analysis, PEST analysis, QUEST analysis, competitor analysis, and industry analysis. It provides overview and descriptions of each technique. SWOT analysis involves identifying internal strengths and weaknesses and external opportunities and threats. PEST analysis examines political, economic, social and technological macroenvironmental factors. Industry analysis helps understand a company's position relative to competitors. Competitor analysis assesses strengths and weaknesses of current and potential rivals.
- Forecasting involves making predictions about future market conditions and demand. It is an important part of business planning but forecasts will always be imperfect.
- Market size refers to the number of potential buyers and sellers in a market. Understanding market size is important for launching new products or services. Qualitative and quantitative models can be used to forecast market size.
- Qualitative models include expert opinion methods like the Delphi method and jury of executive opinion. Quantitative time series models analyze historical demand patterns using techniques like moving averages, exponential smoothing, and regression analysis. These techniques help minimize forecast errors.
The document discusses the focus of livelihood systems research and key system properties to consider. It notes that livelihoods may be interlocked across households and understanding power dynamics is important. Meeting equity goals requires considering equity as an essential system property. Research should intervene in dynamic systems with feedback loops rather than taking a sequential approach. Unique benefits include embedding research in development at scale of impact through partnerships. Simply scaling innovations may not work due to varying contexts; options combined in different ways across scales should be considered. Research can generate understanding of what options work in different contexts.
This document discusses forecasting techniques in time series analysis and causal models. It describes time series models as analyzing a time-ordered sequence of observations over regular intervals to identify trends. These include simple exponential smoothing, which weights older data less and newer data more, and moving averages, which use an average of past periods to forecast the next period. Causal models are based on relationships between dependent and independent variables, assuming past trends will continue influencing future variables. Linear regression is provided as an example causal model that fits a line to measure the effect of a single independent variable.
The document discusses environmental scanning, which involves collecting, analyzing, and distributing external information for strategic planning purposes. It defines environmental scanning and describes the types, including ad hoc, periodic, and continuous scans. The document provides tips on conducting scans, such as assembling a research team, considering your audience, and using visuals. It also lists potential data sources and resources for environmental scanning.
This document discusses demand forecasting techniques. It outlines the objectives of demand forecasting such as understanding the role and reasons for forecasting. It then describes various qualitative and quantitative forecasting methodologies including surveys, sales force composites, exponential smoothing, and regression analysis. Finally, it discusses measuring forecast accuracy using metrics like mean error and developing control limits to monitor forecast performance.
This document discusses demand forecasting methods. It explains that forecasting involves estimating future demand for products and services. There are different types of forecasts including long-range, medium-range, and short-term forecasts used for strategic, tactical, and operational planning respectively. Qualitative methods rely on judgment while quantitative methods use mathematical models and historical data. Common quantitative methods are linear regression, moving average, and exponential smoothing. Accuracy and characteristics like impulse response and noise dampening ability are used to evaluate forecasting models.
This document discusses demand forecasting techniques. It describes demand forecasting as predicting future business situations to minimize risk and uncertainty. Both qualitative and quantitative techniques are covered. Qualitative techniques include expert opinion methods like panel consensus and Delphi method, as well as consumer survey methods. Quantitative techniques involve statistical analysis like time series analysis, moving averages, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and input-output analysis. The document outlines the process and limitations of several of these techniques.
This document discusses forecasting of diesel fuel prices by a team of students. It provides background on types of diesel fuel and their uses. The document then discusses the purpose and importance of forecasting for businesses. It outlines different qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods that could be used to forecast diesel prices, including executive opinions, Delphi method, time series analysis, exponential smoothing, and linear trend lines. The key factors to consider for price forecasting are also summarized.
Environmental scanning involves understanding external factors that may impact an organization. It alerts decision-makers to potential changes so they can plan accordingly. There are different levels of environment to scan - the task environment of direct stakeholders, the industry environment of all similar organizations, and the broad macroenvironment of social, technological, economic, environmental and political trends. Scanning can be passive by casually following news, or active by systematically gathering information from diverse sources to comprehensively cover all environments relevant to strategic planning. The goal is ongoing, integrated scanning to detect early signals of changes that may occur unexpectedly.
The document discusses environmental scanning, which involves systematically collecting external information to reduce uncertainty and provide early warnings of changes. It defines scanning, describes different types (passive vs. active; irregular, periodic, continuous), levels (task, industry, macroenvironment), and goals (alerting to threats, opportunities, trends). Effective scanning programs identify critical trends, examine past reviews/plans, and require dedicated staff and volunteers to rigorously review information sources.
The document provides guidance for students taking an AS Microeconomics exam. It outlines the grade boundaries for the previous exam and offers tips for answering different types of questions. For data questions, it emphasizes starting each point in a new paragraph, including units of measurement, and putting data in the answer. For explanation questions, it stresses the importance of using demand and supply diagrams and drawing from data prompts. For evaluation questions, it notes analysis must come first and good use of extracts and data is crucial for scoring marks. Key topics to focus revision on include definitions, market forces, elasticity, and government and market failures.
Multi-market models allow estimation of policy impacts through a system of supply and demand equations for closely linked markets. They capture direct effects as well as indirect effects through price and quantity changes in these markets. This provides a more accurate assessment than single-market models or general equilibrium models, which model all markets. The method requires data on income, prices, and consumption to parameterize demand and supply and model how policy changes propagate through the selected markets. It has been applied particularly to agricultural policies where food markets are linked. However, multi-market models only consider indirect effects in the modeled markets and ignore linkages elsewhere.
The document discusses the economic surplus model, which is a tool used for ex-ante impact assessment. It provides an overview of the concept, assumptions, specifications, data requirements, and computation of the economic surplus model. The model is popular because it requires relatively little data and provides reliable results. While it has merits such as estimating distribution of benefits, it also has limitations like ignoring transaction costs. The document examines case studies applying the model to assess potential impacts of Bt brinjal in India and actual impacts of a drought-resistant groundnut variety in Andhra Pradesh.
The document discusses the economic surplus model, which is a tool used for ex-ante impact assessment. It provides an overview of the concept, assumptions, specifications, data requirements, and computation of the economic surplus model. The model is popular because it requires relatively little data and provides reliable results. While it has merits such as estimating distribution of benefits, it also has limitations like ignoring transaction costs. The document examines case studies applying the model to assess potential impacts of Bt brinjal in India and actual impacts of a drought-resistant groundnut variety in Andhra Pradesh.
Model Performance Monitoring and Back-Testing as a Business and Risk Manageme...Jonathan Harris
Presentation given at the Risk USA Conference in November 2011, New York, New York. Includes regulatory and business best practices concerning model performance management along with examples of creative approaches to dealing with tricky issues.
This document discusses various research methods including experimental, analytical, survey, and historical research. Experimental research involves manipulating variables to determine their relationship while controlling for other factors. Analytical research uses mathematical or statistical models to test hypotheses and interpret quantitative data relationships. Survey research directly collects data through methods like questionnaires. Historical research reconstructs past events, institutions, or trends to understand the present.
This document discusses various tools that can be used for market analysis. It outlines factors in the micro and macro environment that can affect an organization. These include competition in the micro environment and broader political, economic, social, technological, and environmental factors in the macro environment. The document also discusses analyzing an organization's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT analysis). Additional tools covered include product analysis, portfolio analysis using the Boston Matrix, competitor analysis, and evaluating trends in the marketplace.
Environmental scanning is the process of gathering, analyzing, and sharing information about a company's external environment for strategic purposes. There are three types of environmental scanning: ad-hoc scanning for crises, regular scheduled scanning, and continuous scanning. Environmental scanning examines both the macro environment including political, economic, social, and technological factors (PEST analysis), as well as the micro environment including competitors, customers, and a company's internal environment. Environmental scanning helps managers predict future market conditions to make strategic decisions.
This document discusses various techniques for environmental scanning and monitoring, including SWOT analysis, PEST analysis, QUEST analysis, competitor analysis, and industry analysis. It provides overview and descriptions of each technique. SWOT analysis involves identifying internal strengths and weaknesses and external opportunities and threats. PEST analysis examines political, economic, social and technological macroenvironmental factors. Industry analysis helps understand a company's position relative to competitors. Competitor analysis assesses strengths and weaknesses of current and potential rivals.
- Forecasting involves making predictions about future market conditions and demand. It is an important part of business planning but forecasts will always be imperfect.
- Market size refers to the number of potential buyers and sellers in a market. Understanding market size is important for launching new products or services. Qualitative and quantitative models can be used to forecast market size.
- Qualitative models include expert opinion methods like the Delphi method and jury of executive opinion. Quantitative time series models analyze historical demand patterns using techniques like moving averages, exponential smoothing, and regression analysis. These techniques help minimize forecast errors.
The document discusses the focus of livelihood systems research and key system properties to consider. It notes that livelihoods may be interlocked across households and understanding power dynamics is important. Meeting equity goals requires considering equity as an essential system property. Research should intervene in dynamic systems with feedback loops rather than taking a sequential approach. Unique benefits include embedding research in development at scale of impact through partnerships. Simply scaling innovations may not work due to varying contexts; options combined in different ways across scales should be considered. Research can generate understanding of what options work in different contexts.
This document discusses forecasting techniques in time series analysis and causal models. It describes time series models as analyzing a time-ordered sequence of observations over regular intervals to identify trends. These include simple exponential smoothing, which weights older data less and newer data more, and moving averages, which use an average of past periods to forecast the next period. Causal models are based on relationships between dependent and independent variables, assuming past trends will continue influencing future variables. Linear regression is provided as an example causal model that fits a line to measure the effect of a single independent variable.
The document discusses environmental scanning, which involves collecting, analyzing, and distributing external information for strategic planning purposes. It defines environmental scanning and describes the types, including ad hoc, periodic, and continuous scans. The document provides tips on conducting scans, such as assembling a research team, considering your audience, and using visuals. It also lists potential data sources and resources for environmental scanning.
This document discusses demand forecasting techniques. It outlines the objectives of demand forecasting such as understanding the role and reasons for forecasting. It then describes various qualitative and quantitative forecasting methodologies including surveys, sales force composites, exponential smoothing, and regression analysis. Finally, it discusses measuring forecast accuracy using metrics like mean error and developing control limits to monitor forecast performance.
This document discusses demand forecasting methods. It explains that forecasting involves estimating future demand for products and services. There are different types of forecasts including long-range, medium-range, and short-term forecasts used for strategic, tactical, and operational planning respectively. Qualitative methods rely on judgment while quantitative methods use mathematical models and historical data. Common quantitative methods are linear regression, moving average, and exponential smoothing. Accuracy and characteristics like impulse response and noise dampening ability are used to evaluate forecasting models.
This document discusses demand forecasting techniques. It describes demand forecasting as predicting future business situations to minimize risk and uncertainty. Both qualitative and quantitative techniques are covered. Qualitative techniques include expert opinion methods like panel consensus and Delphi method, as well as consumer survey methods. Quantitative techniques involve statistical analysis like time series analysis, moving averages, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and input-output analysis. The document outlines the process and limitations of several of these techniques.
This document discusses forecasting of diesel fuel prices by a team of students. It provides background on types of diesel fuel and their uses. The document then discusses the purpose and importance of forecasting for businesses. It outlines different qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods that could be used to forecast diesel prices, including executive opinions, Delphi method, time series analysis, exponential smoothing, and linear trend lines. The key factors to consider for price forecasting are also summarized.
Environmental scanning involves understanding external factors that may impact an organization. It alerts decision-makers to potential changes so they can plan accordingly. There are different levels of environment to scan - the task environment of direct stakeholders, the industry environment of all similar organizations, and the broad macroenvironment of social, technological, economic, environmental and political trends. Scanning can be passive by casually following news, or active by systematically gathering information from diverse sources to comprehensively cover all environments relevant to strategic planning. The goal is ongoing, integrated scanning to detect early signals of changes that may occur unexpectedly.
The document discusses environmental scanning, which involves systematically collecting external information to reduce uncertainty and provide early warnings of changes. It defines scanning, describes different types (passive vs. active; irregular, periodic, continuous), levels (task, industry, macroenvironment), and goals (alerting to threats, opportunities, trends). Effective scanning programs identify critical trends, examine past reviews/plans, and require dedicated staff and volunteers to rigorously review information sources.
The document provides guidance for students taking an AS Microeconomics exam. It outlines the grade boundaries for the previous exam and offers tips for answering different types of questions. For data questions, it emphasizes starting each point in a new paragraph, including units of measurement, and putting data in the answer. For explanation questions, it stresses the importance of using demand and supply diagrams and drawing from data prompts. For evaluation questions, it notes analysis must come first and good use of extracts and data is crucial for scoring marks. Key topics to focus revision on include definitions, market forces, elasticity, and government and market failures.
Multi-market models allow estimation of policy impacts through a system of supply and demand equations for closely linked markets. They capture direct effects as well as indirect effects through price and quantity changes in these markets. This provides a more accurate assessment than single-market models or general equilibrium models, which model all markets. The method requires data on income, prices, and consumption to parameterize demand and supply and model how policy changes propagate through the selected markets. It has been applied particularly to agricultural policies where food markets are linked. However, multi-market models only consider indirect effects in the modeled markets and ignore linkages elsewhere.
The document discusses the economic surplus model, which is a tool used for ex-ante impact assessment. It provides an overview of the concept, assumptions, specifications, data requirements, and computation of the economic surplus model. The model is popular because it requires relatively little data and provides reliable results. While it has merits such as estimating distribution of benefits, it also has limitations like ignoring transaction costs. The document examines case studies applying the model to assess potential impacts of Bt brinjal in India and actual impacts of a drought-resistant groundnut variety in Andhra Pradesh.
The document discusses the economic surplus model, which is a tool used for ex-ante impact assessment. It provides an overview of the concept, assumptions, specifications, data requirements, and computation of the economic surplus model. The model is popular because it requires relatively little data and provides reliable results. While it has merits such as estimating distribution of benefits, it also has limitations like ignoring transaction costs. The document examines case studies applying the model to assess potential impacts of Bt brinjal in India and actual impacts of a drought-resistant groundnut variety in Andhra Pradesh.
This document summarizes a lecture on analyzing demand systems for differentiated products. It discusses:
1) Demand systems provide information to analyze firm incentives and responses to policy changes. They are important for welfare analysis and constructing price indices.
2) Demand models can consider representative or heterogeneous agents, and model demand in product or characteristic space. Heterogeneous agent models in characteristic space are preferred as they allow combining different data sources.
3) Demand estimation requires simulating aggregate demand from individual demands, which provides unbiased estimates that can be made precise with large simulations.
Measuring the Impact of Subsidy Reforms (EN)Paul Mithun
This document summarizes Paolo Verme's presentation on measuring the welfare impact of subsidy reforms. The presentation introduces the microeconomic foundations of welfare measurement when prices change, models used to estimate the impact of subsidies reforms, and SUBSIM, a subsidies simulation model. SUBSIM is a partial equilibrium microeconomic model that estimates the short-term household welfare and social welfare impacts of subsidy reforms using household budget surveys. It has been applied in several countries to help inform subsidy reform policies.
Tools for monitoring and evaluation (M&E) should be consistent with those used for market assessment and intervention. Tools used earlier can provide evidence of overall market change, including specific dimensions changed by the intervention. A mix of methodologies is usually required to estimate the impact of an intervention. Quasi-experimental methods like comparative assessments of affected and control groups allow comparison of changes, while trend analysis compares changes in program and non-program areas. Qualitative methods help understand change processes and the role of the intervention alongside other factors.
Building Institutional Capacity in Thailand to Design and Implement Climate P...UNDP Climate
23-25 November 2016, Thailand - A centerpiece of the Integrating Agriculture in National Adaptation Plans Programme (NAP-Ag) in Thailand is its support to develop a new five-year Strategy on Climate Change in Agriculture (2017-2021). This is spearheaded by the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MOAC) and its Office of Agriculture Economics (OAE). The strategy was unveiled after a series of meetings by a Technical Working Group at a three-day workshop held on 23-25 November 2016 in Bangkok, organized by UNDP. Over 60 participants from each MOAC line department and 10 participants from academia and civil society were briefed by the Office of the Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning (ONEP) and GIZ on the status of the National Adaption Plan (NAP) and learned how NAP-Ag programme efforts could support a broader NAP process and align with the Sector Plan. The new strategy focuses on improving evidence and data for informing policy choices, building the capacity of farmers and agri-businesses to adapt, promoting low-carbon development and productivity growth in the sector, and building institutional and managerial capacities to cope with climate change impacts.
Fiscal Policy And Trade Openness On Unemployment EssayRachel Phillips
Here are the key points about forecasting using vector autoregression (VAR) models:
- VAR models treat every variable in the system as endogenous and explain its behavior based on its own lags and lags of other variables. This allows all variables to influence each other.
- VAR models make forecasts by projecting the dynamics of all variables in the system based on estimated relationships between the variables and their lags.
- To generate forecasts, the VAR model is used to simulate future values of the variables by recursively using their estimated relationships. The forecasted values are produced by iterating the VAR model forward.
- Forecasts from VAR models can be evaluated using common metrics like mean squared forecast error to assess their accuracy relative to other
Demand forecasting involves using statistical data and analysis to predict future demand for a product. There are different types of forecasts including short term (less than 1 year), long term, and passive vs active. Short term forecasts help with sales, pricing, and target policies while long term helps with planning. Demand can be forecast at the macro, industry, or firm level. Statistical methods include time series analysis, regression analysis, and smoothing techniques like moving averages and exponential smoothing. Accurate demand forecasting is important for production, inventory, investment, and economic planning.
Crop models can be used to estimate crop yield and its variability under different climate scenarios, account for nitrogen use efficiency, and help inform agricultural management decisions. The document discusses different types of crop models and provides examples of some models that have been successfully used in agrometeorology, including for rice, wheat, maize, sugarcane, and potato crops. It also outlines some limitations and advantages of using crop models.
This document contains information about various topics in economics. It defines economics, econometrics, microeconomics, and macroeconomics. It also discusses analytical approaches like Keynesian economics and supply-side economics. Key topics covered include demand and supply analysis, market failures, analytical tools like regression analysis, and areas of applied microeconomics like labor economics and financial economics.
Demand forecasting can be done using two approaches - obtaining information from experts or consumers, or using past sales data through statistical techniques. [1] Expert surveys include opinion polls and the Delphi technique. [2] Consumer surveys can be a complete enumeration or sample survey. [3] Complex statistical methods include time series analysis, correlation/regression analysis, and simultaneous equation models. Demand forecasting helps with production, financial, and workforce planning as well as decision making.
This is one of the learning documents produced by USAID's Leveraging Economic Opportunities (LEO) Programme. MaFI members will use this document to share knowledge about theories and practices related to market systems.
The Market Systems Framework initiative aims to align the VC framework with systems concepts, make the very poor more visible, and better express the fact that VCs are adaptive, multi-layered, non-linear, and relationship based. The initiative seeks to define inclusive market systems and propose recommendations for project design and implementation.
The framework will be used to develop a detailed learning agenda to address how we (i) analyse market systems, (ii) use the analysis to design inclusive interventions that achieve systemic change, and (iii) measure the results.
You can learn more about LEO at: http://www.acdivoca.org/LEO
This document provides an introduction to computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. It discusses that CGE models attempt to apply general equilibrium theory to analyze economic policy changes by building computer models of economies, calibrating them with data, and simulating policy shocks. The key components of CGE models are described as the underlying economic theory, data on the economic structure, behavioral parameters, and exogenous policy shocks. Examples of typical CGE model results and uses are also outlined.
Mineral nutrients and nutrition
Micro nutrients
Macro nutrients
Primary nutrients
Secondary nutrients
Mobile nutrients
Immobile nutrients
Classification of essential nutrients
Classification based on amount required
Classification in the basis amount present in plant tissue
Classification based on biochemical and physiological functions
Classification based on nutrient mobility in the plants
Partially mobile nutrients
Nitrogen uptake
This is 2 of 4 presentations a part of the Zambia M4P workshop. This presentation covers the market systems development strategic framework, planning for sustainability, and facilitation strategy.
This document discusses the economics of animal diseases through several modeling approaches. It begins by outlining how animal diseases can cost 10% of gross production and 40-50% of net income on farms. It then discusses various modeling techniques that can be used to study the economics, including simulation and optimization models. Specific examples are provided on partial budgeting, cost-benefit analysis, and decision tree analysis. The document also provides background on foot-and-mouth disease and describes an epidemic simulation model that was developed to evaluate control strategies for outbreaks.
Managerial economics uses economic analysis to help managers make business decisions involving allocating scarce resources. It applies microeconomic theory to analyze individual markets and guide decisions around issues like pricing, production, costs, inventory, and capital budgeting. Managerial economics differs from regular economics in that it focuses on applying economic theory to specific business problems and decision making rather than analyzing the overall economy.
Similar to Beyond Experiments: General Equilibrium Simulation Methods for Impact Evaluation (20)
This document summarizes the history of cooking oil fortification with vitamin A in Indonesia, including key challenges and progress over time. It describes early feasibility studies showing the program's potential impact in reducing vitamin A deficiency. While standards were established in 2012, implementation was repeatedly postponed due to lobbying by some oil companies. By 2019, consensus was reached to fortify all packaged cooking oils by January 2020. However, leadership changes risk further delays to this effort to combat widespread nutritional problems through a low-cost fortification strategy.
Food Fortification Policies in the Asia Region by Dennis Bittisnich, Food Fortification Initiative. Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia - MIID conference "Evolving Agrifood Systems in Asia: Achieving food and nutrition security by 2030" on Oct 30-31, 2019 in Yangon, Myanmar.
Pakistan has a history of fortifying staple foods to address micronutrient deficiencies. In the 1960s, oil/ghee was mandated to be fortified with vitamins A and D. In the 1980s, salt iodization became voluntary. A National Fortification Alliance was established in 2003 and 2005 saw the start of a wheat flour fortification program. Current efforts focus on fortifying wheat flour and oil/ghee through legislation, industry standards, and quality control. A 2017 survey found progress but also challenges in reaching small mills. Next steps include continued education campaigns to ensure fortified foods reach those most at risk of deficiencies.
China's Food Safety regulatory system: Achievements, Challenges and Suggestions by Prof. Jiehong Zhou, Zhejiang University, China. Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia - MIID conference "Evolving Agrifood Systems in Asia: Achieving food and nutrition security by 2030" on Oct 30-31, 2019 in Yangon, Myanmar.
Institutional and Governance Innovation in Thailand’s Food System: The Role of the Private Sector in Food Safety by Kamphol Pantakua and Natthida Wiwatwicha, TDRI. Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia - MIID conference "Evolving Agrifood Systems in Asia: Achieving food and nutrition security by 2030" on Oct 30-31, 2019 in Yangon, Myanmar.
Compliance of Producers and Adoption of Consumers in the Case of Food Safety Practices: Cases from South Asia by Devesh Roy, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI. Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia - MIID conference "Evolving Agrifood Systems in Asia: Achieving food and nutrition security by 2030" on Oct 30-31, 2019 in Yangon, Myanmar.
Thailand has a long history of genetically modified crop development and regulation. Key events include the first GM crop field trials in 1994 and establishment of regulatory bodies like the National Biosafety Committee in 1993. While some GM crops were approved for trials, all open field trials were banned in 2001 until biosafety laws were passed. GM food labeling is required only for certain products containing over 5% GM ingredients. Though a biosafety act has been drafted, it has not passed. Current guidelines govern GM research, but emerging technologies may require regulatory changes. Further considerations include exemptions for GM imports and revisions to labeling policies.
Creating and Implementing Biosafety Regulations: The Philippine Experience by Carlo G. Custodio Jr., Philippines Country Coordinator, Program for Biosafety Systems. Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia - MIID conference "Evolving Agrifood Systems in Asia: Achieving food and nutrition security by 2030" on Oct 30-31, 2019 in Yangon, Myanmar.
Making Vegetable Markets Work by Ye Htut, Grow Asia, Myanmar. Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia - MIID conference "Evolving Agrifood Systems in Asia: Achieving food and nutrition security by 2030" on Oct 30-31, 2019 in Yangon, Myanmar.
1. The document outlines the soybean value chain in Myanmar, which includes smallholder farmers, traders, brokers, tofu processors, oil mills, and locally processed food producers.
2. It notes that 100% of smallholder farmers grow soybeans for food products like tofu, textured soy protein, and traditional soy foods. However, farmers have limited access to new end-product development and market demand information from food processors.
3. New market opportunities have brought private sector investments in three new factories producing wet wholesale and retail packed products as well as dried packed products. This has led to market-driven changes among all stakeholders, including better prices, quality, and quantities of food.
Findings from the Study on Nutrition-Sensitive Value Chains in the Feed the Future Zone of Influence in Tajikistan by Abduaziz Kasymov, Tajikistan. Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia - MIID conference "Evolving Agrifood Systems in Asia: Achieving food and nutrition security by 2030" on Oct 30-31, 2019 in Yangon, Myanmar.
Farm Production, Market Access and Dietary Diversity in China’s Poor Rural Households: Evidence from a Panel Data by Kevin Chen, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI- Beijing.
Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia - MIID conference "Evolving Agrifood Systems in Asia: Achieving food and nutrition security by 2030" on Oct 30-31, 2019 in Yangon, Myanmar.
The Livestock Sector in India: Progress and Challenges by Vijay Sardana, Poultry Federation of India.
Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia - MIID conference "Evolving Agrifood Systems in Asia: Achieving food and nutrition security by 2030" on Oct 30-31, 2019 in Yangon, Myanmar.
1) The study examined the relationship between market access, production diversity, and dietary diversity for pregnant/lactating women and children aged 6-23 months in Chin State, Myanmar.
2) It found that market access appears to play a critical role in animal-source food consumption and overall dietary diversity, particularly for areas closer to markets. Production diversity was more important for dietary outcomes in areas further from markets.
3) Nutrition education through the PACE project had a larger, more significant impact on dietary outcomes than either market access or production diversity interventions alone. Investments in nutrition education are important irrespective of how access to nutritious food is improved.
The Quiet Revolution in Myanmar’s Aquaculture Value Chain by Ben Belton, Michigan State University. Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia - MIID conference "Evolving Agrifood Systems in Asia: Achieving food and nutrition security by 2030" on Oct 30-31, 2019 in Yangon, Myanmar.
E-commerce has significantly increased food consumption in rural China through two channels. First, it reduces the cost of living, increasing disposable income that is partly spent on food. Second, it expands choices of food items available, especially non-perishables. Data shows rural household food expenditure grew more than other items with greater e-commerce. However, the biggest impact was on poor households and food for young children, as online access has reduced breastfeeding and increased formula purchases among the poor. While e-commerce has boosted rural consumption, the nutritional effects on children in poor areas requires further study.
Impacting at Scale: From .5% to + 40% by Grahame Dixie, Executive Director, Grow Asia.
Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia - MIID conference "Evolving Agrifood Systems in Asia: Achieving food and nutrition security by 2030" on Oct 30-31, 2019 in Yangon, Myanmar.
Regulatory Cooperation in ASEAN Good Agricultural Practices by Catherine Frances J. Corpuz, Senior Program Officer, ASEAN-Australia Development Cooperation Program.
Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia - MIID conference "Evolving Agrifood Systems in Asia: Achieving food and nutrition security by 2030" on Oct 30-31, 2019 in Yangon, Myanmar.
This document summarizes research on traditional and modern milk marketing chains in India and their implications for smallholder dairy farmers. The key points are:
1) India has a large dairy sector dominated by small farms, but milk is sold through both traditional local markets and modern cooperatives/companies.
2) Research finds smallholder dairy farmers who sell to modern markets earn higher incomes than those relying only on local traders.
3) Factors like farm size, education, and information access influence whether farmers use traditional or modern markets.
4) Policies should encourage smallholder participation in formal markets to improve farmer welfare through higher returns.
Pakistan’s Multi-Sectoral Nutrition Strategy by Amna Ejaz, Research Analyst, IFPRI-Pakistan.
Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia - MIID conference "Evolving Agrifood Systems in Asia: Achieving food and nutrition security by 2030" on Oct 30-31, 2019 in Yangon, Myanmar.
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Beyond Experiments: General Equilibrium Simulation Methods for Impact Evaluation
1. Beyond Experiments: General
Equilibrium Simulation Methods for
Impact Evaluation
Xinshen Diao
International Food Policy Research Institute
J. Edward Taylor
University of California, Davis
Katmandu, Nepal, November 16-18, 2011
2. Outline
Why simulation approach?
Why general equilibrium?
What is a simulation approach?
What is a local-economy general equilibrium
simulation model?
Conclusions: simulation approach and its
implication to FtF
3. Why simulation approach?
We need to look beyond experiments when…
Planning a large scale intervention (such as FtF)
often requires an ex-ante assessment of its potential
impact (no pilot rollout is possible)
Treatment and control groups are impracticable
– Can’t randomize over large number of units
– Investments (e.g., irrigation and rural road) to target certain
areas instead of individuals
Economic impacts are indirect; higher-level effects
(e.g., poverty reduction and economic growth)
We want to know “Why” & “if” there are impacts
Multiple inputs and inter-related outcomes
Impacts are heterogeneous, likely winners and losers
4. Why general equilibrium?
- Externalities and linkages
What experimentalists call “externalities” or
“control-group contamination”
…GE modelers call “linkages”
Linkages transmit impacts from the
treatment group to others in the same
location
Can also create higher-level impacts
outside the targeted locations
10. What is a simulation approach?
Thinking about a flight simulator
Flight simulator contains good model of
mechanics and aerodynamics
– If not, don’t fly with that pilot!
If we have a good model of how the local
economy works, we can use it to
– Simulate impacts of project, policy changes
– Do an local-economy GE cost-benefit analysis
– Estimate the distribution of impacts, winners and
losers, whom to compensate/provide adjustment
assistance
– Experiment with project designs w/ specific goals
Ex-post: We can use experimental results to
see whether the plane really flew
11. What is a local-economy simulation model?
Recipe for simulation-based project evaluation
Understand the project or policy to be simulated
– Elements of the project: E.g., cash transfer or input subsidy? Who’s the target
(i.e., treatment group)?
Understand the actors and the economic system
– How is the treatment group connected with others in the zone of influence (ZOI)
of the project?
– How do we model their behavior?
– Sketch out a social accounting matrix (SAM) for each household group and/or
locality to reflect this
Inventory existing data needs and availability to construct SAMs
– Baseline surveys fill data gaps (can modify pre-treatment surveys)
Build the simulator: construct SAMs, use them to calibrate a general-
equilibrium (GE) model encompassing treatment and control groups
Do simulations to evaluate high-level impacts of intervention
Use the simulation results as inputs into CB or impact analysis, project
design
Use experimental results for validation, recalibration of models
12. Examples of a local economy model:
Malawi case
Challenges of this (like most) impact evaluation
Three transfer mechanisms
– Input subsidy (IS)
• Malawi Agricultural Inputs Subsidy Program (MAISP)
– Cash transfer (CT)
• Malawi’s Social Cash Transfer Scheme, SCTS
– Farm gate market price support (MPS)
• Implemented historically
Can’t do an experiment for each of them
13. Challenges (continued)
Immediate indirect effects of transfers on the control
group (linkages effect)
– Experiments aren’t going to capture them
Heterogeneous treatment and control groups
Sensitivity of outcomes to market structures
– E.g., will cash transfers create multiplier effects within
households by loosening production constraints?
– Ex-post experimental evidence can help us parameterize this
in the simulation model
14. Multiple goals of the analysis
To compare the effects of these three
transfer mechanisms on incomes and
welfare in rural areas
– Including high-level effects, on non-beneficiary
households
To assess differences in these effects across
household groups and market scenarios
– The structure of the economy shapes outcomes
To understand why different transfer
mechanisms produce different outcomes
15. Developing an economywide GE model
in which…
A set of farm (and nonfarm) household
models are defined
Each household model is representative of a
group of households defined according to
their eligibility for each transfer program
All these household models are embedded
in an economywide GE model
16. Data
Ideally, parameterize the model with data from a baseline (pre-
project) survey
In this application, we had to rely on existing data…
– IHS2 (Second Integrated Household Survey)
• 2004, immediately preceding the first round of the MAISP
– National agricultural production and consumption information available
online from FAOSTAT
• 2003, the last completed cropping season before the IHS2 was
conducted
Constructing a social accounting matrix (SAM) for each
household group from the data
Nest the households within a “meta-SAM” for the ZOI (in this
case, the entire rural economy)
Includes market accounts that link together the household groups
17. Simulations
Assumptions on market conditions matter
1. Perfect markets benchmark
2. With constrained input use
3. With unemployment
4. Combined 2 and 3
Under each type of market arrangements,
simulating IS, MPS, CT separately at the
given cost ($52 million)
18. Simulation results at the household level (perfect market benchmark)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Transfer Mechanism
Ineligible, Non-
farm households
Ineligible, Small
farms
Ineligible,
Large farms
Eligible for CT
(ultra-poor labor-
constrained)
Eligible for MAISP
(poor small-
holders)
Eligible for
both CT &
MAISP
Group's share of total
households (%)
3 19 23 1 47 7
a) IS: Crop Inputs subsidies for eligible households
Group’s share of transfer (%) - - 93.0 7.0
Welfare (CV), % change 0.80 0.00 -0.30 0.01 5.47 4.50
Household-level efficiency - - 0.69 0.78
b) MPS: Market Price Support for Maize
Group’s share of transfer (%) 22.0 57.0 1.0 20.0 0.0
Welfare, % change -1.1 2.0 2.7 1.6 0.6 -1.9
Household-level efficiency 0.64 0.66 0.57 0.37 -
c) CT: Cash Transfer to eligible households
Group’s share of transfer (%) - 17.5 - 82.5
Welfare (CV), % change 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.8 0.0 69.7
Household-level
efficiency - - - 1.00 - 1.00
19. Total production effects and efficiency measure under
alternative market conditions
(a) (b) (c) (d)
Perfect markets
benchmark
With constrained
input use
With
unemployment
With unemployment
& constrained input
use
Production effects (% change in total agricultural output)
Input Subsidy 4.0 2.3 13.4 5.0
MPS 1.0 -0.3 8.6 2.9
Cash transfer 0.0 0.8 0.0 2.0
Total transfer efficiency (welfare gain/transfer cost)
Input Subsidy 0.66 0.60 2.59 1.59
MPS 0.57 0.04 2.29 1.30
Cash transfer 1.00 1.17 1.00 1.47
Input subsidy becomes most efficient when households face
unemployment and liquidity constraints
20. Which assumptions reflect reality?
Perfect markets benchmark seems to be
overly optimistic
Effects of transfers depend on:
– The elasticity of input supply
– The responsiveness of wages to shifts in labor
demand
– The extent to which there are cash constraints
on input demand
All are likely to vary across project settings
21. Conclusions: Simulation
approaches and FtF
Experiments have become the favored
method of impact evaluation
Simulation methods will be increasingly
important; and particularly important for
FtF
22. Advantages of experiments
Verifiability
– Create random treatment and control groups
– Simply compare averages of outcomes of
interest to evaluate average effect of treatment
on the treated
23. Disadvantages
Experiments often are impracticable (cost, politics,
ethics)
They almost never come out truly random (need for
econometrics)
Control group contamination (due to GE linkages)
Difficulty comparing impacts of several different
project designs
Non-structural: Generally don’t tell us why
treatments have the impacts they do
GE feedbacks change impacts once programs are
“ramped up”
24. Simulation approaches
Designed to overcome these limitations of
experiments
Ideal for
– Capturing higher-level impacts
– Comparing alternative mechanism designs
– Understanding the “Why?”
– Evaluating differences in project impacts across
market environments
Can be implemented before projects
25. The Simulation-experiment ideal
Simulations: Use to evaluate likely impacts of
alternative project interventions ex-ante
– Parameterize with data from baseline surveys
Carry out randomized experiment using most
promising program designs
Use results of experiment ex-post to verify and (if
needed) reparameterize simulation model
Use simulation model to provide a structural
interpretation of experiment results (i.e., to answer
the “Why?” question)
– …and improve policy design