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The “Quiet Revolution” in
Myanmar’s Aquaculture Value Chain
Ben Belton
Michigan State University
Food Security Policy Project
ReSAKSS-Asia Conference
Yangon, Myanmar, October 31 2019
The “Quiet Revolution”
•Huge (but often overlooked) changes in developing
country food systems
•Occurring across developing countries for multiple
commodities (e.g. Reardon et al, 2012; Reardon et al, 2018)
• Farm commercialization, intensification, specialization
• Growth of supporting off-farm enterprises
•Driven by changes in demand:
• Urbanization → Higher incomes → Diet diversification
Domestic markets dominate demand
Aquaculture
exports and
domestic
consumption from
the top 10
aquaculture
producing
developing
countries
(87% of global
farmed fish
production)
(Belton et al, 2018a)0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Total
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
China
India
Myanmar
Bangladesh
Philippines
Brazil
Egypt
Export Domestic consumption
11 89
Changes in Supply
1992 2012
Fish farm expansion (Belton et al, 2017)
Commercialization, intensification, specialization
• Shift from subsistence to
commercial production
• Formulated feeds
• New species
• Larger fingerlings
• Pumps, aeration, chemicals
• Higher yields, specialization
• Most aquaculture at
‘intermediate’ stage of
development
Nurseries + 200%
Seed traders + 60%
Enterprise 2006 2016 %
change
Hatchery 30 60 100
Nursery 501 1538 207
Seed trader 166 265 60
Pelleted feed trader 5 11 112
Rice bran/oil cake trader 112 175 56
Small boats for hire 115 216 88
Fish trader 46 68 47
Ice factory 9 16 82
Mechanical excavator hire 2 24 961
Trucks for hire 1 20 1900
Inventory of enterprises in the aquaculture value chain, in villages with high
concentrations of fish farms, Myanmar, 2006-2016 (Belton et al, 2018b)
Growth of Off-Farm Value Chain Segments
• Farm growth facilitated by
growth and innovation in
‘upstream’ and
‘downstream’ VC segments
• Development in
‘clusters’ that facilitate
specialization, reduce
costs, increase efficiency
Clustered fish
farm
development in
Myanmar
• Rural-urban
linkages
• Agro-ecology
• Water control
infrastructure
• Land use policy
• Fish farms produce bigger
economic spillovers than
crop farms
• Small commercial fish
farms produce bigger
indirect spillovers than
large fish farms
Estimated local economy-wide direct and indirect income gains from additional acre of land utilized by large
fish farm, small fish farm and crop farm, Myanmar (Filipski & Belton, 2018)
Development impacts through employment & income
spillovers
Farmed fish
prices
falling
relative to
wild fish
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
(MMK/vissatconstant2018prices)
Snakehead
(Capture)
Hilsa
(Capture)
Rohu
(Farmed)
Long run trend in real prices of key fish species from capture fisheries and aquaculture in Myanmar (2008-2018)
+5% per year
+3.7% per
year
-1.1%
per year
• Driven mainly by changes in domestic demand
• Growth, intensification, specialization, and innovation by farms
and enterprises throughout value chain
• Clustered pattern of development
• Many livelihood opportunities created, both on and off-farm
• Large income spillovers, especially from smaller commercial farms
• Increasing availability and accessibility of farmed fish
• Liberalization of land use policy and better access to credit could
spur further growth & specialization
The Quiet Revolution in Myanmar’s Aquaculture
Value Chain

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The Quiet Revolution in Myanmar’s Aquaculture Value Chain

  • 1. The “Quiet Revolution” in Myanmar’s Aquaculture Value Chain Ben Belton Michigan State University Food Security Policy Project ReSAKSS-Asia Conference Yangon, Myanmar, October 31 2019
  • 2. The “Quiet Revolution” •Huge (but often overlooked) changes in developing country food systems •Occurring across developing countries for multiple commodities (e.g. Reardon et al, 2012; Reardon et al, 2018) • Farm commercialization, intensification, specialization • Growth of supporting off-farm enterprises •Driven by changes in demand: • Urbanization → Higher incomes → Diet diversification
  • 3.
  • 4. Domestic markets dominate demand Aquaculture exports and domestic consumption from the top 10 aquaculture producing developing countries (87% of global farmed fish production) (Belton et al, 2018a)0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total Thailand Vietnam Indonesia China India Myanmar Bangladesh Philippines Brazil Egypt Export Domestic consumption 11 89
  • 5. Changes in Supply 1992 2012 Fish farm expansion (Belton et al, 2017)
  • 6. Commercialization, intensification, specialization • Shift from subsistence to commercial production • Formulated feeds • New species • Larger fingerlings • Pumps, aeration, chemicals • Higher yields, specialization • Most aquaculture at ‘intermediate’ stage of development
  • 7. Nurseries + 200% Seed traders + 60% Enterprise 2006 2016 % change Hatchery 30 60 100 Nursery 501 1538 207 Seed trader 166 265 60 Pelleted feed trader 5 11 112 Rice bran/oil cake trader 112 175 56 Small boats for hire 115 216 88 Fish trader 46 68 47 Ice factory 9 16 82 Mechanical excavator hire 2 24 961 Trucks for hire 1 20 1900 Inventory of enterprises in the aquaculture value chain, in villages with high concentrations of fish farms, Myanmar, 2006-2016 (Belton et al, 2018b) Growth of Off-Farm Value Chain Segments • Farm growth facilitated by growth and innovation in ‘upstream’ and ‘downstream’ VC segments • Development in ‘clusters’ that facilitate specialization, reduce costs, increase efficiency
  • 8. Clustered fish farm development in Myanmar • Rural-urban linkages • Agro-ecology • Water control infrastructure • Land use policy
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. • Fish farms produce bigger economic spillovers than crop farms • Small commercial fish farms produce bigger indirect spillovers than large fish farms Estimated local economy-wide direct and indirect income gains from additional acre of land utilized by large fish farm, small fish farm and crop farm, Myanmar (Filipski & Belton, 2018) Development impacts through employment & income spillovers
  • 14. Farmed fish prices falling relative to wild fish 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 (MMK/vissatconstant2018prices) Snakehead (Capture) Hilsa (Capture) Rohu (Farmed) Long run trend in real prices of key fish species from capture fisheries and aquaculture in Myanmar (2008-2018) +5% per year +3.7% per year -1.1% per year
  • 15. • Driven mainly by changes in domestic demand • Growth, intensification, specialization, and innovation by farms and enterprises throughout value chain • Clustered pattern of development • Many livelihood opportunities created, both on and off-farm • Large income spillovers, especially from smaller commercial farms • Increasing availability and accessibility of farmed fish • Liberalization of land use policy and better access to credit could spur further growth & specialization The Quiet Revolution in Myanmar’s Aquaculture Value Chain