Professor Robert McLeman discusses three challenges in assessing climate-related migration and losses and damages. Data on migration is often inconsistent in quality and coverage. Climate-related migration is complex with multiple causes and directions of movement. Three scenarios are presented: discrete extreme events which can provide clear calculations; cumulative events which are harder to assess; and how to address voluntary migration versus involuntary displacement.

1. Climate-related migration
and L&Ds
Professor Robert McLeman
Geography & Environmental Studies
Wilfrid Laurier University
Waterloo, Canada

2. Some general considerations
• Migration data generally are high variable in terms of quality,
geographical coverage
• Internal migration data is often very coarse
• Data on migration motivation is virtually non-existent and must
usually be inferred
• There is considerable disagreement over definition of climate-related
migration
• Climate-related migration is often multi-causal and multi-directional

3. Multi-causality of migration
• Migration = one of a range of
possible responses to climatic
hazards
• Climatic influence on migration
is typically mediated by
economic, social, political,
cultural & environmental factors
• To what extent do we weight
the climatic factor in assessing
L&Ds?
Simplified from Foresight report 2011

4. Multi-directionality of climate-migration
• A given climatic hazard may
generate multiple types of
migration responses
• Migration responses vary
over time because of social,
economic, political change
• The same climate hazard
event may lead to increased
migration in one locale and
to lower migration in
another
From McLeman et al (in revision), Climatic Change

5. Three loss and damage scenarios for climate-
related migration
1. Simplest, clearest, and most easily calculable scenario
2. Less easily calculated scenario
3. What to do about voluntary migration (as opposed to involuntary
displacement)?

6. Hurricane
Infrastructure
damage
Damage to housing,
crops, livelihood
assets
Direct damages Possible migration outcomes
Temporary
displacement
Permanent
relocation
Arriving
migrants
Discrete extreme events (e.g. hurricanes, floods)

7. Hurricane
Infrastructure
damage
Damage to housing,
crops, livelihood
assets
Direct damages Possible migration outcomes
Temporary
displacement
Permanent
relocation
Arriving
migrants
Natural
occurrence +
climate change
amplification
effect =
calculable
Measurable
Measurable
(e.g. cellphone data,
relief agency stats, tax
returns, postal info,
census data…)
Additional loss
Additional loss
No loss
Loss & damage calculation = amplification effect (0.x) * (direct losses experience by residents +
additional losses experienced by temporary & permanent out-migrants)

8. Extreme
heat + low
precipitation
Urban populations:
hospitalization,
higher energy costs,
higher food prices…
Rural populations:
crop & livestock
losses, livelihood
assets damaged
Direct damages
Possible migration outcomes
Temporary migration
of entire household
Permanent
relocation
Migration deferred
Cumulative event (e.g. drought)
Temporary migration of
a household member

9. Extreme
heat + low
precipitation
Urban populations:
hospitalization,
higher energy costs,
higher food prices…
Rural populations:
crop & livestock
losses, livelihood
assets damaged
Direct damages
Possible migration outcomes
Temporary migration
of entire household
Permanent
relocation
Migration deferred
Temporary migration of
a household member
Natural
occurrence +
climate change
amplification
effect =
calculable
Measurable
Is there an
additional loss?
Additional loss
Probably an
additional loss
Additional loss
Data = very difficult to obtain except in extreme cases
where humanitarian relief is required; migration
outcomes are very context specific & mediated
strongly by labour markets

10. Sea level rise
Soil & groundwater
salinization
Increased risk of
flooding
Eventual inundation
Progression of hazard
for coastal populations What to do about
voluntary migrants?

11. Sea level rise
Soil & groundwater
salinization
Increased risk of
flooding
Eventual inundation
Progression of hazard
for coastal populations
Household 1 Household 2
Relocates during
this period, before
flood is experienced
Stays until
flood is
experienced,
then relocates
Household 3
Stays, is
not flooded
Stays, gets
water
trucked in
Requires
institutional
assistance
to relocate

12. Sea level rise
Soil & groundwater
salinization
Increased risk of
flooding
Eventual inundation
Progression of hazard
for coastal populations
Household 1 Household 2
Relocates during
this period, before
flood is experienced
Stays until
flood is
experienced,
then relocates
Household 3
Stays, is
not flooded
Stays, gets
water
trucked in
Requires
institutional
assistance
to relocateWhich households are entitled to L&D?
If HH1 is eligible, does motivation matter?

13. Merci! Thanks!
Robert McLeman
Professor
Geography & Environmental Studies
Wilfrid Laurier University
Waterloo, Canada
rmcleman@wlu.ca