The document discusses the severe impacts of climate change, particularly in Syria where a major drought has led to a humanitarian crisis. Predictions indicate that failure of agricultural efforts may result in mass migration, heightening social and economic instability. Additionally, it highlights the expectation of more extreme weather events and associated damages in the coming decades.

1. A climate of insecurity
Michael Le Page
Environment Features Editor
New Scientist

2. Leaked cable sent from the US Embassy in Damascus to
the State Department in 2008:
“The UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
launched an appeal on September 29 requesting roughly $20.23
million to assist an estimated one million people impacted by
what the U.N. describes as the country’s worst drought in four
decades.”
“If UNFAO efforts fail, [Syria’s UN FAO representative Abdullah
bin] Yehia predicts mass migration from the northeast, which
could act as a multiplier on social and economic pressures
already at play and undermine stability.”

3. Food prices and riots

4. It’s
complicated….
…but climate
change can play a
role in conflicts
Zhang 2011

6. Scientists are conservative!
The question to ask is not:
Will climate change be as bad the scientific consensus
suggests?
Instead, it’s:
Will climate change be even worse than the
scientific consensus suggests?

12. The coming decades…
• We are already seeing an increase in extreme weather events
• Basic physics tells us there will be more extreme heatwaves and
more extreme rainfall events in a warmer world
• Changes in jet stream behaviour due to Arctic warming may also
be contributing to the rise in extreme weather events. If so, can
expect sharp rise in extreme events
• Increasing damage to homes, infrastructure and crops will
undermine development and exacerbate factors such as
migration, epidemics and social unrest
• We cannot say for sure which areas will be hardest hit – great
uncertainties in short-term and regional projections