![Leaked cable sent from the US Embassy in Damascus to
the State Department in 2008:
“The UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
launched an appeal on September 29 requesting roughly $20.23
million to assist an estimated one million people impacted by
what the U.N. describes as the country’s worst drought in four
decades.”
“If UNFAO efforts fail, [Syria’s UN FAO representative Abdullah
bin] Yehia predicts mass migration from the northeast, which
could act as a multiplier on social and economic pressures
already at play and undermine stability.”](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
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Michael Le Page
- 1. A climate of insecurity Michael Le Page Environment Features Editor New Scientist
- 2. Leaked cable sent from the US Embassy in Damascus to the State Department in 2008: “The UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs launched an appeal on September 29 requesting roughly $20.23 million to assist an estimated one million people impacted by what the U.N. describes as the country’s worst drought in four decades.” “If UNFAO efforts fail, [Syria’s UN FAO representative Abdullah bin] Yehia predicts mass migration from the northeast, which could act as a multiplier on social and economic pressures already at play and undermine stability.”
- 3. Food prices and riots
- 4. It’s complicated…. …but climate change can play a role in conflicts Zhang 2011
- 6. Scientists are conservative! The question to ask is not: Will climate change be as bad the scientific consensus suggests? Instead, it’s: Will climate change be even worse than the scientific consensus suggests?
- 12. The coming decades… • We are already seeing an increase in extreme weather events • Basic physics tells us there will be more extreme heatwaves and more extreme rainfall events in a warmer world • Changes in jet stream behaviour due to Arctic warming may also be contributing to the rise in extreme weather events. If so, can expect sharp rise in extreme events • Increasing damage to homes, infrastructure and crops will undermine development and exacerbate factors such as migration, epidemics and social unrest • We cannot say for sure which areas will be hardest hit – great uncertainties in short-term and regional projections