Climate Change 2007 AM slides


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Climate Change - Are You Ready? - Morning presentations

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  • Climate Change 2007 AM slides

    1. 2. Chair of the Conference Mr Poul Christensen Deputy Chairman, Natural England
    2. 3. Welcome Address Vice Chancellor Professor Gordon Marshall University of Reading
    3. 5. Keynote Address Mr John Gilliland Chairman Rural Climate Change Forum
    4. 6. GHGs from agriculture in UK <ul><li>UK agriculture = </li></ul><ul><ul><li>7% of UK GHG emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>37% of UK methane emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>67% of UK nitrous oxide emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1% of UK carbon dioxide emissions </li></ul></ul>
    5. 7. Methane emissions: 1990 - 2005
    6. 8. Nitrous oxide emissions: 1990 - 2005
    7. 9. CH4 and N2O emissions from agriculture 2005 – Carbon equivalent 43.8% 8.1% 10.5% 19% 12.3% 6.3%
    8. 10. Rural Climate Change Forum <ul><li>Established in 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>High level Forum for dialogue with Government </li></ul><ul><li>Advice on policy, communications and research </li></ul><ul><li>Leadership for rural stakeholders </li></ul><ul><li>Steering delivery of commitments in UK CCP </li></ul>
    9. 11. Structure <ul><li>Co-chairs : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>John Gilliland </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Defra Environment Minister </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Members : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Natural England </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CLA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Forestry Commission </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>NFU </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>National Trust </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>RSPB </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Environment Agency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Carbon Trust </li></ul></ul>Up until October 2008
    10. 12. What’s on the RCCF’s agenda? <ul><li>Market mechanisms for reducing GHGs from agriculture, forestry and land management </li></ul><ul><li>What constitutes “ good practice ” by farmers to reduce GHGs? </li></ul><ul><li>How best to communicate good practice </li></ul><ul><li>What are the impacts of climate change? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the opportunities for agriculture? </li></ul>
    11. 13. UK Climate Change Programme included a commitment to…… Examine the scope and feasibility of a market-based mechanism to facilitate the trading of greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions from agriculture, forestry and other land management sectors Is emissions trading for the sector possible?
    12. 14. Scoping study to look at…. <ul><li>Possible models: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Project-based – credits are awarded for projects that reduce emissions, these can then be sold or bought </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cap & trade – emissions cap is set for the sector, participants would have a certain number of allowances for emissions within the cap, which they could buy or sell </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Potential abatement options </li></ul><ul><li>Costs and benefits of options </li></ul>
    13. 15. What did the study say… <ul><li>Characteristics of sector make emissions trading difficult and expensive: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lots of (small) units </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Diffuse sources of emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emissions vary depending on boundaries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Additionalilty / permanence </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But a project-based scheme could be possible </li></ul><ul><li>Still early days! </li></ul>
    14. 16. <ul><li>Commissioned study to review existing research to identify (i) good practice by farmers and land managers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (ii) gaps in our knowledge </li></ul>David Miliband…… <ul><li>Request for RCCF’s advice on putting behaviour change and new technologies into practice </li></ul><ul><li>NFU speech, Feb 2007 </li></ul>RCCF:
    15. 17. Headline messages from this project: <ul><li>Do not exceed crop N requirements </li></ul><ul><li>Make full allowance of manure N supply </li></ul><ul><li>Spread fertiliser and manure at appropriate times/conditions </li></ul><ul><li>Increase livestock N use efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Make use of improved genetic resources (plant and livestock) </li></ul><ul><li>Anaerobic digestion of farm manures </li></ul><ul><li>Change land use – to establish permanent grassland / woodlands or grow biofuels / biomass crops </li></ul>
    16. 18. Some knowledge gaps… <ul><li>Nitrous oxide – need for policies on mineral N fertiliser application rate and timing; need for research on potential of nitrification inhibitors </li></ul><ul><li>Methane – need to understand potential of dietary manipulation (e.g. forages and supplement); need for full lifecycle analysis of GHG benefits of AD </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon – need to quantify carbon storage / GHG benefits of peatland restoration and management, arable reversion and reduced tillage </li></ul>
    17. 19. Climate change impacts <ul><li>Mitigation is important but….. </li></ul><ul><li>We are already “locked in” to climate change for the next 30-40 years </li></ul><ul><li>Farmers among the first to feel these impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Need to adapt to changing pressures – e.g.: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>water shortages </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>increased risk of pests and diseases </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the risk of heat stress in livestock . </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Failure to act now could result in huge financial losses in the long term </li></ul>
    18. 20. Climate change also presents opportunities for the sector: <ul><li>Longer growing seasons </li></ul><ul><li>Grow new crops e.g. a broader range of oilseeds, vines, and energy crops to replace fossil fuels </li></ul><ul><li>Provide more sustainable materials e.g. for construction </li></ul><ul><li>Use anaerobic digestion to produce biogas </li></ul><ul><li>Produce crops and biomass for energy </li></ul>
    19. 21. Climate Change Bill - targets <ul><li>The first bill of its kind in the world </li></ul><ul><li>Target to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 60% by 2050 and 26-32% by 2020, against a 1990 baseline. </li></ul><ul><li>Five-year carbon budgets will set binding limits on carbon dioxide emissions during five year budget periods, beginning with the period 2008-12. </li></ul>
    20. 22. Climate Change Bill – Committee on Climate Change <ul><li>Committee will advise the Government on the pathway to the 2050 target, specifically on: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>the level of carbon budgets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>reduction effort needed by different sectors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>optimum balance between domestic action and international trading in carbon allowances. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>whether the target should be broadened to include UK emissions of other greenhouse gases </li></ul></ul>
    21. 23. Climate Change Bill – enabling powers <ul><li>The Bill contains enabling powers to introduce new emissions trading schemes through secondary legislation. </li></ul><ul><li>New schemes could cover new sectors and non-CO 2 gases </li></ul>
    22. 24. Climate Change Bill – adaptation <ul><li>Government will undertake a risk assessment of climate change impacts and draw up a programme to respond to the risks. This will respect economic, social and environmental concerns. </li></ul><ul><li>Defra is working closely with the Environment Agency and others to consider whether further adaptation measures are needed in the Climate Change Bill. </li></ul>
    23. 25. Conclusion:- This sector has a significant role to play in managing the impacts of climate change! <ul><li>Mitigating of wider GHGs </li></ul><ul><li>Flood risk management </li></ul><ul><li>Protecting biodiversity </li></ul><ul><li>Providing ecosystem services </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Water supply and quality </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reducing erosion </li></ul></ul>
    24. 27. Climate Scenarios Professor Julia Slingo Walker Institute for Climate Systems Research
    25. 28. ‘ Warming of the climate system is unequivocal ’ – IPCC 4 th Assessment Report Eleven of the last 12 years rank among the 12 warmest years on record since 1850 Global warming is real IPCC AR4
    26. 29. Other evidence for Climate Change is stacking up <ul><li>INCREASE </li></ul><ul><li>Length of freeze free season </li></ul><ul><li>Length of growing season </li></ul><ul><li>More frequent heat waves </li></ul><ul><li>Wetter winters/Drier summers </li></ul><ul><li>DECREASE </li></ul><ul><li>Extent of mountain glaciers </li></ul><ul><li>Sea-ice amounts and thickness </li></ul><ul><li>Fewer Frosts </li></ul>
    27. 30. <ul><li>Committed to further warming just from what we have already emitted. </li></ul><ul><li>For the next 20-30 years the rate of global warming is largely insensitive to the different emission scenarios </li></ul>Projected changes in global mean temperature for range of emission scenarios
    28. 31. Surface Temperature changes for 3 emission scenarios for various lead times <ul><li>Pattern of warming is not uniform –indication of much reduced warming over N. Atlantic possibly related to changes in Thermohaline Circulation </li></ul>
    29. 32. <ul><li>IPCC 4 th Assessment Report: Projections of likely shifts in rainfall patterns </li></ul><ul><li>% change in rainfall by end of 21 st century, where more than 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of the change. </li></ul><ul><li>White areas denote regions where no consistent signal is predicted e.g. Africa. </li></ul>Global warming perturbs the water cycle very profoundly
    30. 33. Regional model projections of climate change by end of 21 st century A1B Scenario: 2080-2099 minus 1980-1999
    31. 34. Natural climate variability plays a significant role for the UK North Atlantic Oscillation Negative Phase Positive Phase
    32. 35. Recent trends in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures Unprecedented warmth of N. Atlantic due to juxtaposition of global warming and natural variability Courtesy: Rowan Sutton N. Atlantic sea surface temperatures Global sea surface temperatures N. Atlantic minus Global sea surface temperatures
    33. 36. Changes in Extremes Schematic of probabilities of daily temperatures Assumes that statistics of weather stay the same, which is probably not the case due to feedbacks in the climate system IPCC AR4
    34. 37. Soil moisture feedbacks and summertime extremes Change in summertime temperatures by 2071-2100 for A1B scenario Mean Temperature Increase in variability associated with increased summertime drying e.g. August 2003 % change in year-to-year variations
    35. 38. Air Quality and Plant Health <ul><li>Surface ozone is damaging to plants and humans by affecting ‘lung function’. </li></ul><ul><li>Future projections of air quality are uncertain </li></ul><ul><li>New research at Reading suggests that ‘ozone-friendly’ weather (e.g. anticyclonic conditions) may be more prevalent in the future </li></ul><ul><li>Surface ozone levels at the height of the August 2003 heatwave. </li></ul><ul><li>Thresholds considered dangerous to plants and humans were exceeded in many places. </li></ul>
    36. 39. ‘ Food Crops in a Changing Climate’: Royal Society Discussion Meeting 2005 Damage to rice due to high temperature event at flowering Current estimates of impacts of climate change on food production are likely to be over-optimistic by as much as 50% due to: <ul><li>Damaging effects of surface ozone on crop physiology. Various studies have indicated that increased levels of near-surface ozone could reduce yields of some crops by up to 30% by 2050. </li></ul><ul><li>Exceedance of critical temperature thresholds at flowering leading to loss of yield. </li></ul><ul><li>Interactions between land use change and the water cycle affecting local weather patterns and run-off. </li></ul>
    37. 40. Concluding Remarks <ul><li>Global warming is ‘unequivocal’ and is ‘very likely’ due to human activities. </li></ul><ul><li>High level confidence in global temperature change over the next few decades. </li></ul><ul><li>But many aspects of climate change, especially those of relevance to farmers, remain uncertain: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Regional and local changes in rainfall and its characteristics in space and time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Changes in the frequency and intensity of high impact weather events e.g. heat waves, dry spells </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Potential effects of surface ozone on plant health </li></ul></ul>
    38. 42. Impact of Climate Change on Land Use Professor Richard Ellis University of Reading
    39. 43. Impact of climate change on land use: Plan <ul><li>Climate change – carbon dioxide (CO2) and temperature (T) impacts on crop yield </li></ul><ul><li>Gardens (public-private-garden supply) </li></ul><ul><li>Land use and land use change </li></ul><ul><li>Matrices or mosaics : important in the landscape and also in biodiversity conservation ( albeit at very different scales ) </li></ul><ul><li>Impact on cropping & animal production & land use : individual farmer / forester / land owner / manager decisions . How to predict? </li></ul>
    40. 44. Climate change impacts and adaptation – land use <ul><li>Predictions on land use that society requires or are likely to occur can only be made by </li></ul><ul><li>combining (quantitative) understanding across many, diverse </li></ul><ul><li>disciplines (e.g. sciences from meteorology through agriculture to economics and psychology) and </li></ul><ul><li>groups (e.g. academics and practitioners). </li></ul>
    41. 45. Research @ Reading late 1980s - 1990s <ul><li>Experimental system - grow crops along a temperature gradient in tunnels at different CO2 concentrations to study effects of T and CO2 simultaneously </li></ul>
    42. 46. Winter Wheat Note irrigation pipes: no moisture stress
    43. 47. Grown at set CO2 concentrations (current or elevated) along a temperature gradient (below to above ambient)
    44. 48. Wheat development (temperature gradient) Cool Warm (+3 C) More rapid development, Shorter crop duration, Less radiation capture, and so lower yields Less rapid development, Longer crop duration, More radiation capture, and so higher yields
    45. 49. Effect of T and CO2 on wheat grain yield <ul><li>Increase in CO2: +ve impact </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in T: -ve impact </li></ul><ul><li>So “ balance ” of 2 variables’ effects </li></ul><ul><li>Modelling suggested : effect of doubling CO2 (1980s values!) negated by a 4 C rise in T </li></ul><ul><li>We found … negated by a 1-2 C rise in T </li></ul><ul><li>What had earlier modelling missed? </li></ul>
    46. 50. Effect of maximum temperature (only brief periods) on grain set in winter wheat (P. 69 of The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change (HM Treasury, 2006) shows more of Reading’s research on this topic)
    47. 51. Summer rainfall will decrease <ul><li>More frequent and prolonged droughts </li></ul><ul><li>Main casualties - UK lawn, large trees - especially beech - and many herbaceous perennials </li></ul><ul><li>Hotter, drier conditions - favour pests such as spider mite, aphids and allow exotic pests to spread </li></ul><ul><li>Iconic image of UK as a green and pleasant land under serious threat </li></ul>
    48. 52. Autumn and spring rainfall decrease <ul><li>Conditions for gardening and garden visiting will improve </li></ul><ul><li>Earlier displays of bulbs and other spring flowers; brighter autumn colour </li></ul><ul><li>Conservation of water more important </li></ul><ul><li>Return of autumn as the main planting season? </li></ul><ul><li>Ending of summer drought a new stimulus for gardening </li></ul>
    49. 53. Winter rainfall will increase ...BUT evaporation will also increase <ul><li>Lower soil moisture reserves in much of the country </li></ul><ul><li>Potential for a more Mediterranean garden flora </li></ul><ul><li>… .but the winter light climate will not be Mediterranean </li></ul><ul><li>Wetter and warmer winters will favour the spread of root fungi, and may increase damage from water logging </li></ul>
    50. 54. Winter rainfall will be increasingly concentrated into heavy downpours <ul><li>Flood risks will increase </li></ul><ul><li>The need for water conservation measures will become more important </li></ul>
    51. 55. Wind speeds are not expected to increase significantly as a result of climate change <ul><li>But small increase in wind speed may result in large increases in wind-throw especially as trees become larger </li></ul>
    52. 56. Recent Land Use Change <ul><li>Land use – modification of the natural environment by humans . </li></ul><ul><li>Most important modification by humans world wide is deforestation and (e.g. our region initially, agro-pastoral systems ). </li></ul><ul><li>How rapidly has land use changed? </li></ul><ul><li>(OSR rapid, late 1970s; but not land use change) </li></ul><ul><li>Land use change is not novel, but pace of change in the countryside difficult to gauge year to year compared to urban development. </li></ul><ul><li>DEFRA data from </li></ul>
    53. 57. Agricultural land use: 1986-2005 UK Introdn of setaside
    54. 58. Forest and woodland cover: 1980-2005 UK *** ***** Broadleaved
    55. 59. Area of woodland: 1924-2005 UK WW1 WW2
    56. 60. * * *
    57. 61. Urbanisation in England
    58. 62. Planning (to protect important landscapes) National Parks and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONBs) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland National Scenic Areas in Scotland
    59. 63. Greater recent use of “brownfield sites” (n.b. homes not areas)
    60. 64. Landscape Mosaic North Hants. c. 10 miles South of this campus
    61. 65. Severn Valley, Gloucestershire – water management? *
    62. 66. Essex & East Coast – aridity & inundation?
    63. 67. 1. Socio-economic change scenarios I nternational P anel on C limate C hange, S pecial R eport on E missions S cenarios futures (IPCC, SRES) UK C limate I mpacts P rogramme refinements for UK B asic L inked S ystem World Food Trade model (BLS) 2. Climate change scenario Hadley Centre’s HadCM3 climate forcing projections 3. Consequences for land use University of Reading’s C limate L and U se A llocation M odel (CLUAM) Translates market, policy, technology and climate signals into land use changes Modelling Future Changes in Land Use Overview ( Combination of 3 modules )
    64. 68. IPCC S pecial R eport on E missions S cenarios futures Scenarios selected were: A2 – low globalisation/market based solutions & B2 – low globalisation/sustainability led Low globalisation High globalisation <ul><ul><li>Market-based solutions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sustainability-led solutions </li></ul></ul>What sort of “future world”? Local Stewardship Conventional Development Autonomy Community Interdependence Consumerism National Enterprise World Markets Global Sustainability
    65. 69. Basic Linked System World Food Trade model (BLS) <ul><li>Constructed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) </li></ul><ul><li>Framework for analysing world food trade system </li></ul><ul><li>BLS is an applied general equilibrium (AGE) model system </li></ul><ul><ul><li>All economic activities represented </li></ul></ul><ul><li>34 national and/or regional geographical components </li></ul><ul><ul><li>18 single-country national models </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2 region models </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>14 country groupings </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Market clearance (production and uses must balance) </li></ul><ul><li>Recursively dynamic model, i.e., works in annual steps </li></ul><ul><ul><li>For given prices calculate global net exports and imports </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Check market clearance for each commodity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Revise prices. When markets are balanced, accept prices as world market solution for year and proceed to next year </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Process repeated until world markets are simultaneously cleared in all commodities </li></ul></ul>BLS model based on 1996 prices: 1996 was therefore the baseline year
    66. 70. Climate Change & Cropping (England and Wales) <ul><li>Two stage process: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Meta analysis of existing data on UK-specific crop yield changes due to climate change </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Decisions on where crops would not grow due to climate limits </li></ul></ul>1990s
    67. 71. <ul><li>An LP model of England & Wales Agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>Land base partitioned by CEH (formerly ITE ) Land Classification System (LCS) </li></ul><ul><li>Range of major land-using agricultural enterprises included </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Outputs (revenue) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inputs (costs) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Model objective: maximize gross margin </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Subject to various constraints </li></ul></ul>The Economic Model ( CLUAM , University of Reading)
    68. 72. Example outputs: National Land Use Changes <ul><li>Yield increases & static demand would reduce area of arable production </li></ul><ul><li>Addition of climate change modestly reduces yield increases, allows alternative crops, so reducing scale of arable losses </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in extensive (low stocking rate) grass-based beef and sheep </li></ul><ul><li>Large areas of former arable land become “idle” (new use? fuel/fibre?) </li></ul>Without climate change With climate change A2 Low Globalisation - Market Solutions B2 Low Globalisation - Sustainability Solutions
    69. 73. The Kennet Catchment <ul><li>59,773 ha of agricultural land in South Central England </li></ul><ul><li>productive mixed farming, dominated by livestock production </li></ul><ul><li>dominance of regularly re-seeded higher yielding grassland </li></ul><ul><li>about one third of the area under arable </li></ul><ul><li>little lower yielding permanent pasture or rough grazing </li></ul>
    70. 74. Land Use Change in the Kennet Catchment Without climate change With climate change A2 Low Globalisation - Market Solutions B2 Low Globalisation - Sustainability Solutions
    71. 75. Change in livestock numbers LSU = Livestock Units A2 Low Globalisation - Market Solutions B2 Low Globalisation - Sustainability Solutions
    72. 76. Conclusions <ul><li>Climate change as a driver is less important than socio-economic factors </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental benefits (lower chemical burden) could arise from a reduced arable area and low intensity grass production </li></ul><ul><li>But, extent of environmental benefits depends on what released land is used for </li></ul><ul><li>If climate change provided agricultural diversification opportunities , then perhaps more arable production (e.g. fuel or fibre crops not represented in CLUAM) and a higher chemical burden </li></ul>
    73. 77. Future – Land Use and Climate Change <ul><li>Decisions </li></ul><ul><li>on land use change will be made by farmers, foresters and other land owners / managers </li></ul><ul><li>Within </li></ul><ul><li>a rapidly-changing economic-social environment dictated by society (driven by an increasing global population’s demand for goods and services, including biodiversity, access, and aesthetics) through government policy and trade </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental change </li></ul><ul><li>(of which climate change is but one component ) will in due course have to be accounted for in the above if development is to be sustainable </li></ul><ul><li>Debatable </li></ul><ul><li>how much (more) environmental change will have to occur before society changes </li></ul><ul><li>Business investment </li></ul><ul><li>(in large part) will have to anticipate not only climate change but also anticipate (and perhaps lead ) society’s expectations and legislation </li></ul>
    74. 78. Sustainability  Green Brown Blue Red ) <ul><li>Sum of </li></ul><ul><li>Green - Vegetation, Biodiversity, Food-Fuel-Fibre Crop Production </li></ul><ul><li>Brown – Soil (quantity quality) </li></ul><ul><li>Blue - Water (quantity quality) </li></ul><ul><li>Red – Economics (financial viability: short- medium- long-term) </li></ul>Investment essential – payback periods in which scenarios? Where are “tipping points” for investment decisions? “ Are we (nearly) there yet”?
    75. 79. University of Reading School of Agriculture, Policy and Development Department of Agriculture Professor Richard Ellis Dr Tim Wheeler Centre for Agricultural Strategy Philip Jones Richard Tranter School of Biological Sciences Centre for Horticulture and Landscape Richard Bisgrove Professor Paul Hadley Climate change: are you ready? 25 September 2007
    76. 81. Q&A
    77. 82. Coffee Break
    78. 84. Agricultural Impacts and Opportunities Dr Jonathon Scurlock National Farmers Union
    79. 85. Dr. Jonathan Scurlock Agricultural impacts and opportunities Climate Change – are you ready? University of Reading, 25-Sep-2007
    80. 86. Why CC is important for agriculture <ul><li>climate change is driving policy on reducing GHG emissions at international, national and regional level </li></ul><ul><li>EU and UK targets for renewable energy – for electricity, transport fuels and heating (not yet) </li></ul><ul><li>agriculture will be impacted by climate change, and must also anticipate/respond to regulation </li></ul><ul><li>NFU believes this is more an opportunity than a threat </li></ul><ul><li>compatible with “Why Farming Matters” campaign </li></ul><ul><li>agriculture is part of the solution to a public problem </li></ul>
    81. 87. CC impacts on agriculture <ul><li>Predicted physical impacts of climate change in the UK 2010-2100: </li></ul><ul><li>warmer temperatures overall </li></ul><ul><li>milder, wetter winters </li></ul><ul><li>hotter, drier summers (but not always!) </li></ul><ul><li>more extreme weather incidents </li></ul><ul><li>Effects of these changes on the land-based rural business sector (agriculture, horticulture, forestry) likely to be extremely complex and variable (NFU, 2005) </li></ul>
    82. 88. Climate Change Task Force <ul><li>joint NFU / CLA / AIC activity on climate change </li></ul><ul><li>demonstrate responsibility within agricultural sector, anticipate future needs, promote change </li></ul><ul><li>producing science-based report setting out what farmers and growers can do (and are already doing) to combat climate change </li></ul><ul><li>high uncertainties surround estimates of GHG emissions from agriculture – improvements need to be measurable, without pollution swapping or export </li></ul><ul><li>emerging recommendations include nutrient management, feed changes to livestock productivity, sustainable energy – continue existing trends </li></ul>
    83. 89. Are we ready? – what can farmers do? <ul><li>invest in water storage (winter reservoirs) </li></ul><ul><li>animal shelter and improved energy efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>minimum/conservation tillage? – not yet proven to have reduced GHG emissions overall </li></ul><ul><li>sustainable energy on-site – manage and substitute for energy inputs </li></ul><ul><li>R.E. has good fit to farming business model – long term, capital investment, control input costs, future credit from GHG reductions </li></ul><ul><li>supply biofuel commodities – OSR, wheat, wood fuel </li></ul><ul><li>become an energy exporter (wind, AD, etc.) </li></ul>
    84. 90. Energy use in UK agriculture <ul><li>Headline figures (HRI/FEC, 2007): </li></ul><ul><li>mostly electricity and petroleum (>1/3 each of delivered energy – HRI/FEC suggests even higher oil use) </li></ul><ul><li>modest CO 2 emissions (0.72% of total) compared to other sectors and food chain as a whole </li></ul><ul><li>heating (40%), field ops (30%), ventilation (15%) are largest energy uses </li></ul><ul><li>ag buildings insulation (esp hort) and biomass have greatest potential for reducing energy/CO 2 emissions </li></ul><ul><li>renewables only 0.1% but potential for zero carbon </li></ul>
    85. 91. Renewable energy examples <ul><li>Lee Moor Farm, Northumberland – 100 kW woodchip boiler provides heat to tenanted business units </li></ul><ul><li>Parkers Nurseries, Frinton, Essex - 700kW woodchip boiler (2005) - clean waste wood, woodland residues. 40-tonne fuel store, buffer tank, replaced 5 oil/gas boilers. </li></ul><ul><li>Lowbrook Farm, Blandford, Dorset – 340kW biogas digester – dairy manures and silage maize (proposed) </li></ul><ul><li>Ensus ethanol plant, Teesside (under construction) – 400 million litres/year from 1.2 million tonnes wheat, start-up 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Numerous wind farms, e.g. turkey processing, Norfolk </li></ul>
    86. 92. Perennial energy crops – a new sub-sector <ul><li>SRC willow (harvested every three years) and miscanthus (harvested annually) </li></ul><ul><li>Solid biomass fuel, together with environmental services (high biodiversity, low inputs, low run-off) </li></ul><ul><li>However - loss of flexibility in marketing, cannot be diverted back to food uses like food-based feedstocks </li></ul>Short rotation coppice willow Miscanthus
    87. 93. Small-scale biofuel production <ul><li>HM Revenue and Customs – simplification of regulations from Summer 2007, allow 2500 litres/year without registration or payment of fuel excise duty </li></ul>home-made biodiesel processor commercial processor small oil press 2500 litres/year is the fuel consumption of one small commercial vehicle doing 11000 miles at 20 mpg - or one or more diesel cars totalling 25,000 miles at 45 mpg
    88. 94. Thank you <ul><li>Dr Jonathan Scurlock </li></ul><ul><li>Chief Policy Adviser, Renewable Energy, Climate Change and Non-Food Crops </li></ul><ul><li>National Farmers’ Union </li></ul><ul><li>Stoneleigh Park </li></ul><ul><li>Warwicks CV8 2TZ </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul>
    89. 96. Environmental Impacts and Water Usage Mr Robert Runcie Environment Agency
    90. 97. Climate Change and The Water Framework Directive Robert Runcie Regional Director, Environment Agency
    91. 98. Water Framework Directive: A new opportunity <ul><li>Many organisations working together </li></ul><ul><li>Long-term planning </li></ul><ul><li>Applied across Europe </li></ul><ul><li>Help manage the impacts of climate change </li></ul>
    92. 99. Aims of the Directive <ul><li>Prevent deterioration and enhance status of water environment </li></ul><ul><li>Promote sustainable water use </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce pollution </li></ul><ul><li>Help to mitigate effects of floods and droughts </li></ul>
    93. 100. Good Ecological Status / Potential <ul><li>Biology </li></ul><ul><li>Chemical water quality </li></ul><ul><li>Physical structure </li></ul><ul><li>Water quantity </li></ul>
    94. 101. Protection to Higher Standards <ul><li>Protected areas e.g. recreational waters, nutrient sensitive waters, conservation sites, drinking water sources </li></ul><ul><li>No deterioration </li></ul>
    95. 102. Getting the balance right <ul><li>Taking account of different pressures </li></ul><ul><ul><li>environmental </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>social </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>economic </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Risk based approach </li></ul><ul><li>Impact of Climate Change </li></ul>
    96. 103. River Basin Management Plans <ul><li>Statutory strategic regional plans for water </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental objectives for each water body </li></ul><ul><li>Programmes of Measures </li></ul><ul><li>Nine River Basin Districts in England and Wales; two cross border (Solway Tweed & Northumbria) </li></ul>
    97. 104. The Thames River Basin District
    98. 105. Taking account of climate change
    99. 106. Drought
    100. 107. Flooding
    101. 108. TE2100
    102. 109. Flood Defence Operations
    103. 110. The Facts behind the Fiction
    104. 111. Risks posed by climate change to good ecological status Changing river flows and sea level (hydro-morphological parameters) Changes in flora and fauna (biological parameters) More frequent flushing of CSOs (physio-chemical parameters)
    105. 112. Significant Water Management Issues <ul><li>Point source discharges </li></ul><ul><li>Low flow </li></ul><ul><li>Physical modification </li></ul><ul><li>Changing land management practices </li></ul><ul><li>Future development </li></ul><ul><li>Urban run-off (including flood risk management) </li></ul><ul><li>Aquatic alien species </li></ul>
    106. 113. <ul><li>Some solutions </li></ul>
    107. 114. Wildlife refuges
    108. 115. Key deadlines July 2007: Significant Water Management Issues (out for consultation) Dec 2008: Draft River Basin Management Plan Dec 2009: Thames River Basin Management Plan
    109. 116. Making a lasting difference <ul><li>Long-term programme of environmental improvement </li></ul><ul><li>Working with challenges: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Climate change </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Protecting wildlife </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New homes and flooding risk </li></ul></ul>Further Information: [email_address]
    110. 118. Q&A
    111. 119. Lunch time