Sir Andy Haines, Professor, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, at Europe That Protects - Safeguarding Our Planet, Safeguarding Our Health EU side event, 3-4 Dec 2019, THL, Helsinki

1. The imperative of climate action to protect human health in Europe:
Opportunities for adaptation to reduce the impacts, and for mitigation to
capitalise on the benefits of decarbonisation
Professor Andy Haines, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Co-Chair of EASAC project Working Group
Climate change and health
Acknowledgements --EASAC project :

2. Changes in Surface Temperatures, 1850–2017.
Haines A, Ebi K. N Engl J Med 2019;380:263-273

3. Emissions Projections for 2018
Global fossil CO2 emissions are projected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 [range: +1.8% to +3.7%]
The global growth is driven by the underlying changes at the country level.
Source: CDIAC; Jackson et al 2018; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018

4. Regional temperatures at 1.5C and rising risks
Temperature Increase
1 ºC 2 ºC 3 ºC

5. Climate tipping points- the potential for non-linear, self
reinforcing changes PIK- Potsdam Institute for Climate Change

6. Courtesy: George Luber, CDC
Haines and Ebi NEJM 2019

7. France, August 2003 ~15000 excess deaths (~70,000 in Europe)Robine et al 2007
Excess deaths in Paris 1999-2002 vs
2003
Climate change increased the risk of
heat-related mortality in Central Paris
by ~70% (Mitchell et al 2016)
European summer temperatures for
2003 to become the norm in coming
decades

8. ~1 billion people affected
globally by extreme heat
preventing moderate
intensity labour in the hottest
month after global increases
~ 2·5°C above pre-industrial
levels.
(Andrews et al 2018 Lancet Planetary Health )

9. Increased fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic
heating (Turco et al Nature Comms 2018)

10. Climate variability and change exacerbates food insecurity in
areas currently vulnerable to hunger and under-nutrition
Impacts of
climate change
on the
productivity of
food crops in
2050
World Bank Publishers
World bank Development report 2010
http://wdronline.worldbank.org/
2016 Global
Hunger Index
Welthungerhilfe, IFPRI and Concern Worldwide
2016 http://www.ifpri.org/ghi/2016
Tim Wheeler and Joachim von Braun Climate change impacts on global food security. Science 2013 (updated 2017)

11. Aedes albopictus distribution in Europe - recent local
transmission of chikungunya virus in Italy and France and dengue virus
in France and Croatia

12. Mental health effects of environmental change (e.g. Burke et al 2018, Ahern et al 2005)
Solastalgia is defined by Albrecht et. al. (2007) as, “the distress caused
by environmental change”.
Many studies have shown
increase in common mental
disorders for considerable
periods after floods

13. The need for urgent action

14. Health co-benefits of decarbonizing the world economy-millions of
deaths averted annually (Lelieveld, Klingmüller Pozzer, Burnett, Haines, Ramanathan PNAS 2019 )
Phase-out of fossil fuels would avoid excess mortality of ~430,000 persons/year in
EU-28

15. Mayor of London, draft Environment Strategy
C neutral
Zero waste
50% green
Best air quality
Climate resilient
Low noise; tranquil spaces

16. Bowler and colleagues the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence
Psychological and physical benefits from exposure to natural
environments and tree planting

17. The EAT-Lancet Commission - planetary health diet and targets for sustainable
food production that can prevent 11 million premature adult deaths per year
and lead to a sustainable global food system by 2050.

18. Towards an environmentally and socially
sustainable health system
• Reduce energy use, GHG emissions (~5% total) and environmental
footprint.
• Provide care closer to home
• Sustainable procurement of pharmaceuticals and equipment

19. Under 2 Degrees Celsius: Fast Action Policies to Protect
People and the Planet from Extreme Climate Change
http://ccacoalition.org/en/resources/summary-under-2-degrees-celsius-fast-action-policies-protect-people-and-planet-extreme