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Session: Geographical Analysis, Urban Modeling, Spatial statistics   A web-based autonomous weather monitoring system of the town of Palermo and its utilization for temperature nowcasting By: Giorgio Beccali, Maurizio Cellura, Simona Culotta, Valerio Lo Brano, Antonino Marvuglia UNIVERSITY OF PALERMO
Introduction ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],Solar radiation sensors Pluviometer SIM + solar battery Consolle Anemometer Anemometer base
Albunea Pizia Merlino Amaltea Meteo Palermo1 Morgana Cassandra
Area:  6.25 Km 2 Area:  13.5 Km 2 Area:  45.6 Km 2 Installed in March 2008 July, 10 th  2007 MeteoPalermo1 March, 4 th  2008 Albunea May, 21 st  2007 Pizia February, 20 th  2007 Amaltea November, 30 th  2006 Cassandra November, 13 rd  2006 Morgana September, 26 th  2006 Merlino Installation date Weather station
Data acquisition and web publishing system The Linux server of DREAM connects to the shared folder of this PC where the file is stored and copies it into a local folder. The procedure is automated by a bash script and is repeated for each weather station.   Re-formatting of the ASCII file through a Perl script   A web server (Apache) is connected with the database server (MySQL) and an http service is available over TCP/IP network . Graphs and data digest : publicly available. Statistic elaborations and data download : protected by login and password. Every 30 minutes each weather station automatically generates an ASCII file containing the last 336 collected data and immediately transfers it (via GSM) to a MS Windows PC located at the DREAM building, in which a proprietary software is installed.
Data publishing system
Data publishing system
Data publishing system
Data publishing system
Data publishing system
Data publishing system ,[object Object],[object Object]
Statistical elaborations Elaborations edited by Dr. Valerio Lo Brano and Dr. Simona Culotta
Temperature and Humidity ,[object Object]
Rainfall ,[object Object]
Wind data ,[object Object]
Wind data ,[object Object],[object Object],Wind speed (m/s) Frequency (%)
Case study: ANN-based temperature nowcasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Perugia, June 30 - July 3, 2008
Linear model structures ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The ARMAX model ,[object Object],prediction   error  or  residual   : Regression vector : Parameter vector :
Nonlinear model structures ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],An often used approach is to reuse the input structures from the linear models substituting the internal architecture with a MLP network.
Nonlinear model structures ,[object Object],where:   is the vector containing the adjustable parameters in the neural network known as  weights   ;  g  is the function realized by the neural network and it is assumed to have a feed-forward structure.  is again the  regression vector ; ,[object Object]
The NNARMAX model ,[object Object],u3: Wind speed u2: Dew point u1: Humidity u5:   Solar radiation u4: Atm. pressure Temperature
The networks used in the case-study ,[object Object],Except  MeteoPalermo1 station
Results ,[object Object],max min 0.39 1.27 Pizia 0.45 1.44 Morgana 0.68 2.11 MeteoPalermo1 0.35 1.13 Merlino 0.48 1.55 Cassandra 0.45 1.47 Amaltea MAE (°C) MAPE (%) Weather station
Results Week August 25 th  to 31 th  2007 Morgana Cassandra Amaltea Pizia MeteoPalermo1 Merlino Output One-step ahead prediction
Results Merlino station
Map of the average forecasted temperature for the week 25/08/07 – 31/08/07
Map of the average measured temperature for the week 25/08/07 – 31/08/07
Conclusions and future work ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Dr. Antonino Marvuglia e-mail: marvuglia@dream.unipa.it tel: +39 091 236 139 web site: www.dream.unipa.it Thank you for your attention
 
 
 
 
 
 
Forecasting performaces  of the ARMAX (4,4,1) model for Merlino weather station  Week 25-31 August 2007.   Output One-step ahead prediction

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Marvuglia

  • 1. Session: Geographical Analysis, Urban Modeling, Spatial statistics A web-based autonomous weather monitoring system of the town of Palermo and its utilization for temperature nowcasting By: Giorgio Beccali, Maurizio Cellura, Simona Culotta, Valerio Lo Brano, Antonino Marvuglia UNIVERSITY OF PALERMO
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5. Albunea Pizia Merlino Amaltea Meteo Palermo1 Morgana Cassandra
  • 6. Area: 6.25 Km 2 Area: 13.5 Km 2 Area: 45.6 Km 2 Installed in March 2008 July, 10 th 2007 MeteoPalermo1 March, 4 th 2008 Albunea May, 21 st 2007 Pizia February, 20 th 2007 Amaltea November, 30 th 2006 Cassandra November, 13 rd 2006 Morgana September, 26 th 2006 Merlino Installation date Weather station
  • 7. Data acquisition and web publishing system The Linux server of DREAM connects to the shared folder of this PC where the file is stored and copies it into a local folder. The procedure is automated by a bash script and is repeated for each weather station. Re-formatting of the ASCII file through a Perl script A web server (Apache) is connected with the database server (MySQL) and an http service is available over TCP/IP network . Graphs and data digest : publicly available. Statistic elaborations and data download : protected by login and password. Every 30 minutes each weather station automatically generates an ASCII file containing the last 336 collected data and immediately transfers it (via GSM) to a MS Windows PC located at the DREAM building, in which a proprietary software is installed.
  • 13.
  • 14. Statistical elaborations Elaborations edited by Dr. Valerio Lo Brano and Dr. Simona Culotta
  • 15.
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  • 27. Results Week August 25 th to 31 th 2007 Morgana Cassandra Amaltea Pizia MeteoPalermo1 Merlino Output One-step ahead prediction
  • 29. Map of the average forecasted temperature for the week 25/08/07 – 31/08/07
  • 30. Map of the average measured temperature for the week 25/08/07 – 31/08/07
  • 31.
  • 32. Dr. Antonino Marvuglia e-mail: marvuglia@dream.unipa.it tel: +39 091 236 139 web site: www.dream.unipa.it Thank you for your attention
  • 33.  
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  • 39. Forecasting performaces of the ARMAX (4,4,1) model for Merlino weather station Week 25-31 August 2007. Output One-step ahead prediction