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Learning from Observations

         Chapter 18
        Section 1 – 3
Outline
• Learning agents
• Inductive learning
• Decision tree learning
Learning
• Learning is essential for unknown environments,
  – i.e., when designer lacks omniscience

• Learning is useful as a system construction
  method,
  – i.e., expose the agent to reality rather than trying to
    write it down

• Learning modifies the agent's decision
  mechanisms to improve performance
Learning agents
Learning element
• Design of a learning element is affected by
  – Which components of the performance element are to
    be learned
  – What feedback is available to learn these components
  – What representation is used for the components

• Type of feedback:
  – Supervised learning: correct answers for each
    example
  – Unsupervised learning: correct answers not given
  – Reinforcement learning: occasional rewards
Inductive learning
• Simplest form: learn a function from examples

f is the target function

An example is a pair (x, f(x))

Problem: find a hypothesis h
   such that h ≈ f
   given a training set of examples

(This is a highly simplified model of real learning:
   – Ignores prior knowledge
   – Assumes examples are given)
   –
Inductive learning method
• Construct/adjust h to agree with f on training set
• (h is consistent if it agrees with f on all examples)
• E.g., curve fitting:


•
•
Inductive learning method
• Construct/adjust h to agree with f on training set
• (h is consistent if it agrees with f on all examples)
• E.g., curve fitting:


•
•
Inductive learning method
• Construct/adjust h to agree with f on training set
• (h is consistent if it agrees with f on all examples)
• E.g., curve fitting:


•
•
Inductive learning method
• Construct/adjust h to agree with f on training set
• (h is consistent if it agrees with f on all examples)
• E.g., curve fitting:


•
•
Inductive learning method
• Construct/adjust h to agree with f on training set
• (h is consistent if it agrees with f on all examples)
• E.g., curve fitting:




•
Inductive learning method
• Construct/adjust h to agree with f on training set
• (h is consistent if it agrees with f on all examples)
• E.g., curve fitting:




• Ockham’s razor: prefer the simplest hypothesis
  consistent with data
Learning decision trees
Problem: decide whether to wait for a table at a restaurant,
  based on the following attributes:
   1. Alternate: is there an alternative restaurant nearby?
   2. Bar: is there a comfortable bar area to wait in?
   3. Fri/Sat: is today Friday or Saturday?
   4. Hungry: are we hungry?
   5. Patrons: number of people in the restaurant (None, Some, Full)
   6. Price: price range ($, $$, $$$)
   7. Raining: is it raining outside?
   8. Reservation: have we made a reservation?
   9. Type: kind of restaurant (French, Italian, Thai, Burger)
   10. WaitEstimate: estimated waiting time (0-10, 10-30, 30-60, >60)
Attribute-based representations
•   Examples described by attribute values (Boolean, discrete, continuous)
•   E.g., situations where I will/won't wait for a table:




•   Classification of examples is positive (T) or negative (F)

•
Decision trees
• One possible representation for hypotheses
• E.g., here is the “true” tree for deciding whether to wait:
Expressiveness
•   Decision trees can express any function of the input attributes.
•   E.g., for Boolean functions, truth table row → path to leaf:




•   Trivially, there is a consistent decision tree for any training set with one path
    to leaf for each example (unless f nondeterministic in x) but it probably won't
    generalize to new examples

•   Prefer to find more compact decision trees
Hypothesis spaces
How many distinct decision trees with n Boolean attributes?
= number of Boolean functions
                                                  n
= number of distinct truth tables with 2n rows = 22

•   E.g., with 6 Boolean attributes, there are
    18,446,744,073,709,551,616 trees
Hypothesis spaces
How many distinct decision trees with n Boolean attributes?
= number of Boolean functions
                                                   n
= number of distinct truth tables with 2n rows = 22

•   E.g., with 6 Boolean attributes, there are
    18,446,744,073,709,551,616 trees

How many purely conjunctive hypotheses (e.g., Hungry ∧ ¬Rain)?
• Each attribute can be in (positive), in (negative), or out
         ⇒ 3n distinct conjunctive hypotheses
•   More expressive hypothesis space
     – increases chance that target function can be expressed
     – increases number of hypotheses consistent with training set
         ⇒ may get worse predictions
Decision tree learning
•   Aim: find a small tree consistent with the training examples
•   Idea: (recursively) choose "most significant" attribute as root of
    (sub)tree
Choosing an attribute
• Idea: a good attribute splits the examples into subsets
  that are (ideally) "all positive" or "all negative"




• Patrons? is a better choice
•
Using information theory
• To implement Choose-Attribute in the DTL
  algorithm
• Information Content (Entropy):
       I(P(v1), … , P(vn)) = Σi=1 -P(vi) log2 P(vi)
• For a training set containing p positive examples
  and n negative examples:
           p   n       p         p   n         n
     I(      ,    )=−     log 2    −    log 2
          p+n p+n     p+n       p+n p+n       p+n
Information gain
• A chosen attribute A divides the training set E into
  subsets E1, … , Ev according to their values for A, where
  A has v distinct values.
                         v
                            p i + ni       pi     ni
      remainder ( A) = ∑             I(        ,        )
                       i =1 p + n       pi + ni pi + ni
• Information Gain (IG) or reduction in entropy from the
  attribute test:
                     p   n
      IG ( A) = I (    ,    ) − remainder ( A)
                    p+n p+n
• Choose the attribute with the largest IG
Information gain
For the training set, p = n = 6, I(6/12, 6/12) = 1 bit

Consider the attributes Patrons and Type (and others too):

                      2            4        6 2 4
  IG ( Patrons ) = 1 − [I (0,1) + I (1,0) + I ( , )] = .0541 bits
                     12           12       12 6 6
                    2 1 1        2 1 1      4 2 2      4 2 2
  IG (Type) = 1 − [ I ( , ) + I ( , ) + I ( , ) + I ( , )] = 0 bits
                   12 2 2 12 2 2 12 4 4 12 4 4

Patrons has the highest IG of all attributes and so is chosen by the DTL
  algorithm as the root
Example contd.
• Decision tree learned from the 12 examples:




• Substantially simpler than “true” tree---a more complex
  hypothesis isn’t justified by small amount of data
Performance measurement
•    How do we know that h ≈ f ?
    1.       Use theorems of computational/statistical learning theory
    2.       Try h on a new test set of examples
         (
Summary
• Learning needed for unknown environments,
  lazy designers
• Learning agent = performance element +
  learning element
• For supervised learning, the aim is to find a
  simple hypothesis approximately consistent with
  training examples
• Decision tree learning using information gain
• Learning performance = prediction accuracy
  measured on test set

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M18 learning

  • 1. Learning from Observations Chapter 18 Section 1 – 3
  • 2. Outline • Learning agents • Inductive learning • Decision tree learning
  • 3. Learning • Learning is essential for unknown environments, – i.e., when designer lacks omniscience • Learning is useful as a system construction method, – i.e., expose the agent to reality rather than trying to write it down • Learning modifies the agent's decision mechanisms to improve performance
  • 5. Learning element • Design of a learning element is affected by – Which components of the performance element are to be learned – What feedback is available to learn these components – What representation is used for the components • Type of feedback: – Supervised learning: correct answers for each example – Unsupervised learning: correct answers not given – Reinforcement learning: occasional rewards
  • 6. Inductive learning • Simplest form: learn a function from examples f is the target function An example is a pair (x, f(x)) Problem: find a hypothesis h such that h ≈ f given a training set of examples (This is a highly simplified model of real learning: – Ignores prior knowledge – Assumes examples are given) –
  • 7. Inductive learning method • Construct/adjust h to agree with f on training set • (h is consistent if it agrees with f on all examples) • E.g., curve fitting: • •
  • 8. Inductive learning method • Construct/adjust h to agree with f on training set • (h is consistent if it agrees with f on all examples) • E.g., curve fitting: • •
  • 9. Inductive learning method • Construct/adjust h to agree with f on training set • (h is consistent if it agrees with f on all examples) • E.g., curve fitting: • •
  • 10. Inductive learning method • Construct/adjust h to agree with f on training set • (h is consistent if it agrees with f on all examples) • E.g., curve fitting: • •
  • 11. Inductive learning method • Construct/adjust h to agree with f on training set • (h is consistent if it agrees with f on all examples) • E.g., curve fitting: •
  • 12. Inductive learning method • Construct/adjust h to agree with f on training set • (h is consistent if it agrees with f on all examples) • E.g., curve fitting: • Ockham’s razor: prefer the simplest hypothesis consistent with data
  • 13. Learning decision trees Problem: decide whether to wait for a table at a restaurant, based on the following attributes: 1. Alternate: is there an alternative restaurant nearby? 2. Bar: is there a comfortable bar area to wait in? 3. Fri/Sat: is today Friday or Saturday? 4. Hungry: are we hungry? 5. Patrons: number of people in the restaurant (None, Some, Full) 6. Price: price range ($, $$, $$$) 7. Raining: is it raining outside? 8. Reservation: have we made a reservation? 9. Type: kind of restaurant (French, Italian, Thai, Burger) 10. WaitEstimate: estimated waiting time (0-10, 10-30, 30-60, >60)
  • 14. Attribute-based representations • Examples described by attribute values (Boolean, discrete, continuous) • E.g., situations where I will/won't wait for a table: • Classification of examples is positive (T) or negative (F) •
  • 15. Decision trees • One possible representation for hypotheses • E.g., here is the “true” tree for deciding whether to wait:
  • 16. Expressiveness • Decision trees can express any function of the input attributes. • E.g., for Boolean functions, truth table row → path to leaf: • Trivially, there is a consistent decision tree for any training set with one path to leaf for each example (unless f nondeterministic in x) but it probably won't generalize to new examples • Prefer to find more compact decision trees
  • 17. Hypothesis spaces How many distinct decision trees with n Boolean attributes? = number of Boolean functions n = number of distinct truth tables with 2n rows = 22 • E.g., with 6 Boolean attributes, there are 18,446,744,073,709,551,616 trees
  • 18. Hypothesis spaces How many distinct decision trees with n Boolean attributes? = number of Boolean functions n = number of distinct truth tables with 2n rows = 22 • E.g., with 6 Boolean attributes, there are 18,446,744,073,709,551,616 trees How many purely conjunctive hypotheses (e.g., Hungry ∧ ¬Rain)? • Each attribute can be in (positive), in (negative), or out ⇒ 3n distinct conjunctive hypotheses • More expressive hypothesis space – increases chance that target function can be expressed – increases number of hypotheses consistent with training set ⇒ may get worse predictions
  • 19. Decision tree learning • Aim: find a small tree consistent with the training examples • Idea: (recursively) choose "most significant" attribute as root of (sub)tree
  • 20. Choosing an attribute • Idea: a good attribute splits the examples into subsets that are (ideally) "all positive" or "all negative" • Patrons? is a better choice •
  • 21. Using information theory • To implement Choose-Attribute in the DTL algorithm • Information Content (Entropy): I(P(v1), … , P(vn)) = Σi=1 -P(vi) log2 P(vi) • For a training set containing p positive examples and n negative examples: p n p p n n I( , )=− log 2 − log 2 p+n p+n p+n p+n p+n p+n
  • 22. Information gain • A chosen attribute A divides the training set E into subsets E1, … , Ev according to their values for A, where A has v distinct values. v p i + ni pi ni remainder ( A) = ∑ I( , ) i =1 p + n pi + ni pi + ni • Information Gain (IG) or reduction in entropy from the attribute test: p n IG ( A) = I ( , ) − remainder ( A) p+n p+n • Choose the attribute with the largest IG
  • 23. Information gain For the training set, p = n = 6, I(6/12, 6/12) = 1 bit Consider the attributes Patrons and Type (and others too): 2 4 6 2 4 IG ( Patrons ) = 1 − [I (0,1) + I (1,0) + I ( , )] = .0541 bits 12 12 12 6 6 2 1 1 2 1 1 4 2 2 4 2 2 IG (Type) = 1 − [ I ( , ) + I ( , ) + I ( , ) + I ( , )] = 0 bits 12 2 2 12 2 2 12 4 4 12 4 4 Patrons has the highest IG of all attributes and so is chosen by the DTL algorithm as the root
  • 24. Example contd. • Decision tree learned from the 12 examples: • Substantially simpler than “true” tree---a more complex hypothesis isn’t justified by small amount of data
  • 25. Performance measurement • How do we know that h ≈ f ? 1. Use theorems of computational/statistical learning theory 2. Try h on a new test set of examples (
  • 26. Summary • Learning needed for unknown environments, lazy designers • Learning agent = performance element + learning element • For supervised learning, the aim is to find a simple hypothesis approximately consistent with training examples • Decision tree learning using information gain • Learning performance = prediction accuracy measured on test set