Logistics Internship
Final Presentation
Arjun Kumar – Demand Planning
Agenda
8/31/2015 2
Demand Planning
Forecasting Project
Takeaways & Growth
My Internship
3
Demand
Planning
WOD
Activity
Forecasting
Goals
• Be a successful
forecaster
• Create a framework
for future forecasters
• Gain a keen
understanding of ABI
Logistics
How I Learned
Primary
• WOD forecasting tasks &
responsibilities
• Sales, management, and
accuracy meetings
• KPI & trend tracking, DP
troubleshooting, and
final project
Ancillary
• Experiences with
coworkers, interns,
support, and systems
• Interactions with
corporate leadership
• Knowledge resources
& training
8/31/2015 4
Demand Planning
Key Concepts
• Connect the moving parts of sales, forecasting, planning,
and product trends
• Understand the determinants of a forecast
• Make well-informed decisions & mitigate supply
chain loss
• Increase accuracy
5
WOD Forecasting - Timeline
8/31/2015 6
Week 1-3
• Began Medford & Salem Forecasting
• Basic Trend Analysis & OOS Resolving
Week 4-6
• Added Portland & Eugene Forecasting
• CBA, Accuracy Analysis, 2nd-Order Problem
Solving
Week 7-10
• Supply Chain Risk Analysis & Target Evaluation
• Logistics Troubleshooting & Final Project
WOD Forecasting - Tools
BudNET & CBA Portal
• Adjusting and revising PDCN forecasts in line with sales &
brand trends
• Pull WOD reports, submit logistics requests, and order
PDCNs
Supply Chain Systems (BIC/PLN/SSM)
• Analyze & report sales and inventory data at a micro level
• Track shipments, adjust loads, information sharing
Qlikview
• Review KPI targets and build accuracy reports
7
Forecast Accuracy Analysis
Qlikview Dashboard
Accuracy Deck
8
Wholesaler Forecast Sales W 5 MAPE W 5 Weight W 5 Liquid +/- W 5 Liquid %
Eugene, OR 4,522 4,577 13.0% 45.4% -55 1.2%
Medford, OR 1,880 1,864 14.5% 18.5% 16 0.9%
Salem, OR 1,560 1,601 14.2% 15.9% -40 2.6%
Portland, OR 2,080 2,043 19.2% 20.3% 36 1.8%
Forecast Accuracy Analysis
Forecast Accuracy – 6 Week – Oregon WOD Avg.
9
Supply Chain Risk Analysis
Central Region – Package Report by WOD
10
• Information
Sharing – Allows
multiple ABI teams to
collaborate and
mitigate supply chain
loss & OOS
• Inventory
Coordination –
Product transfers
reduce need for
adding shipments
WOD Forecasting
Key Successes
• Sustained Oregon WOD Accuracy (Six Week Target &
Actual)
• Supply Chain Risk Mitigation – Denver Stella Artois
• Identified $345,611 worth of potential SCL
• Eugene  Sylmar – Montejo transfer of 450 Cases
• Alleviated critical OOS  Captured missed sales
• Created critical tools for future Oregon forecasting
11
Salem 78.0% 78.3%
Portland 83.3% 79.7%
Eugene 85.0% 84.1%
Medford 81.1% 81.6%
Forecasting  Final Project
8/31/2015 12
Business Description
13
Mission
Deliver world-class forecasts while managing complexity to fully enable a path
reaching our shared dream to be the best zone in the best beer company in a
world.
Inputs
• BudNET Resources
• Sales & Product
• WOD Information
• Demand Planning
Knowledge
Outputs
• Increased Forecast
Accuracy
• Reduced Supply
Risk
• Standardized
Excellence
Processes
• Forecast Revising
• Inventory Planning
• WOD Collaboration
• Data Analysis
S
DC
A
Process Mapping
14
• Studied SuEP process
mapping &
standardization
Standards Creation & Execution
15
M T W TH F
x x x x
x x x x
x x x
x x x
x x x x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Outlook
WSF Reports
Weekly WOD Analysis
Weekly Update Email
CBA Forecasting SOP
Outlook
BudNET Splash Page
Weekly IP Meeting TOR
Weekly Report Sample
SOP
Forecasting Calculator
Weekly WOD Analysis
BudNET/Qlikview
BudNET
Qlikview - MAPE Data
Friday
Friday
Friday
Friday
Thursday
Thursday
Thursday
Daily
Monday
Monday
Monday
Monday
Tuesday
Tuesday
Tuesday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Wednesday
Wednesday
Review weekly update objectives
Review CBA Forecasting
Disperse Supply Chain Loss Follow Up Email
Complete all necessary WOD forecasting
Create and disperse Supply Chain Loss Report
Conduct weekly Inventory Planning Meeting
Build accuracy deck for Weekly Accuracy Review
Follow up on all OOS requests & communicate results
Wednesday
Frequency
ThursdayFriday
Review Daily OOS Report
Check Status of Logistics Requests
Review BudNET Splash Page
Review inventory levels to track OOS
Create & Submit OOS Logistics Requests
Consolidate new PDCN/promo info
Compile forecast/sales report to track PDCN movement
Forecast major volume product families
Pull brand trends to prioritize high error
Complete Oregon WOD forecasting by 5pm CST
Outline action items for meetings/calls
Cross-check BudNET data with Qlikview data
Input Week 0 Friday Updates in BudNET
Review Daily Update Objectives
Daily
Daily
Daily
Daily
Daily Forecasting Update Email
SOP
Forecasting Workflow
Routine ActivitiesDay Resource
DailyMondayTuesday
SOP
Daily OOS Email Report
BSC Ticket #
BudNET
Daily Update Email
Email Template
WOD Inventory Wkst
Completed?
50% 33%100% 78% 100%
Routine Review Processes
16
Criticality & RACI Matrices
Activity/Task
Customer
Complaints
Impact on
Results
Accidents
Time /
Difficulty
Adjusting Forecasts in BudNET 3 5 1 5 14 Y
Creation & Dispersion of Supply Chain
Loss Risk Report
1 5 1 5 12 Y
Creation of Weekly Forecast Accuracy
Review Deck
1 5 1 5 12 Y
Submission of OOS Logistics Requests 3 5 1 3 12 Y
Monitoring of Daily OOS Report 3 3 1 1 8 N
Innovation Product Ordering 1 3 1 3 8 Y
CBA Product Forecasting 1 5 1 3 10 Y
New Product Forecasting 1 3 1 3 8 N
Weekly Inventory Planning Meetings 3 5 1 5 14 Y
Input Week 0 Friday Updatesin BudNet 1 1 1 1 4 N
Review comments/e-mails to see if
there is a promo change or event
1 3 1 1 6 Y
Follow Up on BSC Tickets 3 5 1 1 10 Y
Attend Weekly Inventory Power Hour 3 3 1 1 8 Y
Attend Weekly Sales Review 1 1 1 1 4 N
Daily Forecasting Team Meeting 1 3 1 1 6 N
Criticality Level (1, 3, or 5)Criticality Matrix - WOD Forecasting
Total Sum
Critical?
(Y/N)
Deliverable/Role Forecasting
Demand
Planning
WODs BSC
Adjusting Forecasts in BudNET R I/C I C
Creation & Dispersion of Supply Chain
Loss Risk Report
R/A C/I I -
Creation of Weekly Forecast Accuracy
Review Deck
R/A C/I - -
Submission of OOS Logistics Requests R/A I I/C A
Monitoring of Daily OOS Report A I C/I -
Innovation Product Ordering R/A C C/I I
CBA Product Forecasting R/A C C/I I
New Product Forecasting R/A C C/I I
Weekly Inventory Planning Meetings R/A C R/C/I I
Input Week 0 Friday Updatesin BudNet R/A C I -
Weekly Inventory Power Hour I I R/C I
Weekly Sales Review I I R/C I
RACI Matrix - WOD Forecasting RACI Category (R, A, C, and/or I)
Takeaways
Logistics  Demand Planning  Forecasting
Logistics
• Ownership & teamwork combined
with defined goals equals
success
Demand Planning
• Second-order problem solving is
key to avoiding first-order
problem solving
Forecasting
• Every decision should be
validated by as much data as
possible
8/31/2015 17
Growth
Personal Development
NAZ Headquarters
• Valuable chance to be at the
heart of operations & decision
making
Corporate Leadership
• Positive influencers and role
models everywhere (Hazlett,
Runyon, Huskisson)
Educational Experience
• Refined my knowledge and
abilities in a corporate & logistics
setting
8/31/2015 18
Summer @ ABInBev
• Met and befriended many
awesome & talented interns
• Engaged in A-B product testing
8/31/2015 19
• Explored the Lou!
• Participated in Intern
Challenges
Thank you!
Questions?
8/31/2015 20

Logistics Project Presentation

  • 1.
  • 2.
  • 3.
    My Internship 3 Demand Planning WOD Activity Forecasting Goals • Bea successful forecaster • Create a framework for future forecasters • Gain a keen understanding of ABI Logistics
  • 4.
    How I Learned Primary •WOD forecasting tasks & responsibilities • Sales, management, and accuracy meetings • KPI & trend tracking, DP troubleshooting, and final project Ancillary • Experiences with coworkers, interns, support, and systems • Interactions with corporate leadership • Knowledge resources & training 8/31/2015 4
  • 5.
    Demand Planning Key Concepts •Connect the moving parts of sales, forecasting, planning, and product trends • Understand the determinants of a forecast • Make well-informed decisions & mitigate supply chain loss • Increase accuracy 5
  • 6.
    WOD Forecasting -Timeline 8/31/2015 6 Week 1-3 • Began Medford & Salem Forecasting • Basic Trend Analysis & OOS Resolving Week 4-6 • Added Portland & Eugene Forecasting • CBA, Accuracy Analysis, 2nd-Order Problem Solving Week 7-10 • Supply Chain Risk Analysis & Target Evaluation • Logistics Troubleshooting & Final Project
  • 7.
    WOD Forecasting -Tools BudNET & CBA Portal • Adjusting and revising PDCN forecasts in line with sales & brand trends • Pull WOD reports, submit logistics requests, and order PDCNs Supply Chain Systems (BIC/PLN/SSM) • Analyze & report sales and inventory data at a micro level • Track shipments, adjust loads, information sharing Qlikview • Review KPI targets and build accuracy reports 7
  • 8.
    Forecast Accuracy Analysis QlikviewDashboard Accuracy Deck 8 Wholesaler Forecast Sales W 5 MAPE W 5 Weight W 5 Liquid +/- W 5 Liquid % Eugene, OR 4,522 4,577 13.0% 45.4% -55 1.2% Medford, OR 1,880 1,864 14.5% 18.5% 16 0.9% Salem, OR 1,560 1,601 14.2% 15.9% -40 2.6% Portland, OR 2,080 2,043 19.2% 20.3% 36 1.8%
  • 9.
    Forecast Accuracy Analysis ForecastAccuracy – 6 Week – Oregon WOD Avg. 9
  • 10.
    Supply Chain RiskAnalysis Central Region – Package Report by WOD 10 • Information Sharing – Allows multiple ABI teams to collaborate and mitigate supply chain loss & OOS • Inventory Coordination – Product transfers reduce need for adding shipments
  • 11.
    WOD Forecasting Key Successes •Sustained Oregon WOD Accuracy (Six Week Target & Actual) • Supply Chain Risk Mitigation – Denver Stella Artois • Identified $345,611 worth of potential SCL • Eugene  Sylmar – Montejo transfer of 450 Cases • Alleviated critical OOS  Captured missed sales • Created critical tools for future Oregon forecasting 11 Salem 78.0% 78.3% Portland 83.3% 79.7% Eugene 85.0% 84.1% Medford 81.1% 81.6%
  • 12.
    Forecasting  FinalProject 8/31/2015 12
  • 13.
    Business Description 13 Mission Deliver world-classforecasts while managing complexity to fully enable a path reaching our shared dream to be the best zone in the best beer company in a world. Inputs • BudNET Resources • Sales & Product • WOD Information • Demand Planning Knowledge Outputs • Increased Forecast Accuracy • Reduced Supply Risk • Standardized Excellence Processes • Forecast Revising • Inventory Planning • WOD Collaboration • Data Analysis S DC A
  • 14.
    Process Mapping 14 • StudiedSuEP process mapping & standardization
  • 15.
    Standards Creation &Execution 15 M T W TH F x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Outlook WSF Reports Weekly WOD Analysis Weekly Update Email CBA Forecasting SOP Outlook BudNET Splash Page Weekly IP Meeting TOR Weekly Report Sample SOP Forecasting Calculator Weekly WOD Analysis BudNET/Qlikview BudNET Qlikview - MAPE Data Friday Friday Friday Friday Thursday Thursday Thursday Daily Monday Monday Monday Monday Tuesday Tuesday Tuesday Tuesday Wednesday Wednesday Wednesday Review weekly update objectives Review CBA Forecasting Disperse Supply Chain Loss Follow Up Email Complete all necessary WOD forecasting Create and disperse Supply Chain Loss Report Conduct weekly Inventory Planning Meeting Build accuracy deck for Weekly Accuracy Review Follow up on all OOS requests & communicate results Wednesday Frequency ThursdayFriday Review Daily OOS Report Check Status of Logistics Requests Review BudNET Splash Page Review inventory levels to track OOS Create & Submit OOS Logistics Requests Consolidate new PDCN/promo info Compile forecast/sales report to track PDCN movement Forecast major volume product families Pull brand trends to prioritize high error Complete Oregon WOD forecasting by 5pm CST Outline action items for meetings/calls Cross-check BudNET data with Qlikview data Input Week 0 Friday Updates in BudNET Review Daily Update Objectives Daily Daily Daily Daily Daily Forecasting Update Email SOP Forecasting Workflow Routine ActivitiesDay Resource DailyMondayTuesday SOP Daily OOS Email Report BSC Ticket # BudNET Daily Update Email Email Template WOD Inventory Wkst Completed? 50% 33%100% 78% 100%
  • 16.
    Routine Review Processes 16 Criticality& RACI Matrices Activity/Task Customer Complaints Impact on Results Accidents Time / Difficulty Adjusting Forecasts in BudNET 3 5 1 5 14 Y Creation & Dispersion of Supply Chain Loss Risk Report 1 5 1 5 12 Y Creation of Weekly Forecast Accuracy Review Deck 1 5 1 5 12 Y Submission of OOS Logistics Requests 3 5 1 3 12 Y Monitoring of Daily OOS Report 3 3 1 1 8 N Innovation Product Ordering 1 3 1 3 8 Y CBA Product Forecasting 1 5 1 3 10 Y New Product Forecasting 1 3 1 3 8 N Weekly Inventory Planning Meetings 3 5 1 5 14 Y Input Week 0 Friday Updatesin BudNet 1 1 1 1 4 N Review comments/e-mails to see if there is a promo change or event 1 3 1 1 6 Y Follow Up on BSC Tickets 3 5 1 1 10 Y Attend Weekly Inventory Power Hour 3 3 1 1 8 Y Attend Weekly Sales Review 1 1 1 1 4 N Daily Forecasting Team Meeting 1 3 1 1 6 N Criticality Level (1, 3, or 5)Criticality Matrix - WOD Forecasting Total Sum Critical? (Y/N) Deliverable/Role Forecasting Demand Planning WODs BSC Adjusting Forecasts in BudNET R I/C I C Creation & Dispersion of Supply Chain Loss Risk Report R/A C/I I - Creation of Weekly Forecast Accuracy Review Deck R/A C/I - - Submission of OOS Logistics Requests R/A I I/C A Monitoring of Daily OOS Report A I C/I - Innovation Product Ordering R/A C C/I I CBA Product Forecasting R/A C C/I I New Product Forecasting R/A C C/I I Weekly Inventory Planning Meetings R/A C R/C/I I Input Week 0 Friday Updatesin BudNet R/A C I - Weekly Inventory Power Hour I I R/C I Weekly Sales Review I I R/C I RACI Matrix - WOD Forecasting RACI Category (R, A, C, and/or I)
  • 17.
    Takeaways Logistics  DemandPlanning  Forecasting Logistics • Ownership & teamwork combined with defined goals equals success Demand Planning • Second-order problem solving is key to avoiding first-order problem solving Forecasting • Every decision should be validated by as much data as possible 8/31/2015 17
  • 18.
    Growth Personal Development NAZ Headquarters •Valuable chance to be at the heart of operations & decision making Corporate Leadership • Positive influencers and role models everywhere (Hazlett, Runyon, Huskisson) Educational Experience • Refined my knowledge and abilities in a corporate & logistics setting 8/31/2015 18
  • 19.
    Summer @ ABInBev •Met and befriended many awesome & talented interns • Engaged in A-B product testing 8/31/2015 19 • Explored the Lou! • Participated in Intern Challenges
  • 20.