This document provides an overview of forecasting. It defines forecasting as a statement about the future value of a variable of interest that is used for planning purposes. It then discusses how forecasts affect decision making across various organizational functions. The document outlines common features of forecasts, such as becoming less accurate over longer time horizons. It also describes different forecasting approaches, like judgmental, time series, and associative modeling. Time series techniques are explained in more detail, including identifying trends, seasonality, and cycles in time-ordered data. Specific time series forecasting methods like moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential smoothing are defined. The document concludes with a discussion and example of measuring forecast accuracy.
Using Key Metrics to Supercharge Your Demand Management and S&OP ProcessSteelwedge
Forecast accuracy is the single most important metric for demand planning, and quite possibly for the entire sales and operations planning (S&OP) process. If you start with an accurate forecast, the rest of the process is a lot easier. Improvements in forecast accuracy have a cascade effect, leading to reductions in inventory, improvements in customer service/reductions in stock outs, and eventually to increases in gross revenues and/or margins. But do you really understand forecast accuracy, and how to properly leverage it for results?
In this webinar, we will focus on explaining the foundations of forecast accuracy metrics:
How to measure forecast accuracy
Selecting the most meaningful offset or lag period
Units vs. revenue
Aggregation levels
Time buckets: Weeks, months or quarters
Impacts to functional groups: Sales, Marketing, Demand Planning
Strategies for transparent and effective tracking for improved results
Demand Planning Leadership Exchange: Increasing Forecast Accuracy... Does it ...Plan4Demand
866.P4D.INFO | Plan4Demand.com | Info@plan4demand.com
Trend Lines vs. Headlines
The standard supply chain planning philosophy is that by
increasing forecast accuracy, you can better manage and
reduce inventory levels. Is this really true?
Does the trending data back up this common assumption?
The general rule of thumb claims 1% of forecast accuracy improvement should reduce inventory by 1%, up to about
an 80% accuracy level before hitting a point of diminishing
return. Over the last decade global companies have focused their efforts on supply chain management best practices. Despite the headlines and success stories, a recent survey revealed that 3 out of the 4 business sectors actually had their days-on-hand inventory increase… Why?
It’s time to get focused in on the trend lines, and understand what’s really fueling the headlines. This Leadership Exchange webinar will provide practical insight and pragmatic tips to connect forecast accuracy with inventory effectively.
A few key take-a-ways from this session include:
• Understanding how Forecast Accuracy impacts different Inventory types
• How to synchronize for results all the way down to the Plant level
• Where and When Forecast Bias fits into the mix
Make Forecast Accuracy Headlines That
Translate Into Inventory Reduction Trend Lines
Join our exclusive
Demand Planning
Leadership Exchange Group
on LinkedIn http://linkd.in/DPLeadershipExchange
A summary of tested principles I composed on improving forecast accuracy for a more reliable and efficient supply chain operation. These tips can be useful for Demand Managers and forecasters especially in a market involving wholesalers and distributors.
An educational course covering all aspects of supply chain management. Includes workshops to design and implement your own supply chain management function
Business Budgeting PowerPoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
This complete deck is oriented to make sure you do not lag in your presentations. Our creatively crafted slides come with apt research and planning. This exclusive deck with twenty slides is here to help you to strategize, plan, analyse, or segment the topic with clear understanding and apprehension. Utilize ready to use presentation slides on Business Budgeting Powerpoint Presentation Slides with all sorts of editable templates, charts and graphs, overviews, analysis templates. It is usable for marking important decisions and covering critical issues. Display and present all possible kinds of underlying nuances, progress factors for an all inclusive presentation for the teams. This presentation deck can be used by all professionals, managers, individuals, internal external teams involved in any company organization.
Using Key Metrics to Supercharge Your Demand Management and S&OP ProcessSteelwedge
Forecast accuracy is the single most important metric for demand planning, and quite possibly for the entire sales and operations planning (S&OP) process. If you start with an accurate forecast, the rest of the process is a lot easier. Improvements in forecast accuracy have a cascade effect, leading to reductions in inventory, improvements in customer service/reductions in stock outs, and eventually to increases in gross revenues and/or margins. But do you really understand forecast accuracy, and how to properly leverage it for results?
In this webinar, we will focus on explaining the foundations of forecast accuracy metrics:
How to measure forecast accuracy
Selecting the most meaningful offset or lag period
Units vs. revenue
Aggregation levels
Time buckets: Weeks, months or quarters
Impacts to functional groups: Sales, Marketing, Demand Planning
Strategies for transparent and effective tracking for improved results
Demand Planning Leadership Exchange: Increasing Forecast Accuracy... Does it ...Plan4Demand
866.P4D.INFO | Plan4Demand.com | Info@plan4demand.com
Trend Lines vs. Headlines
The standard supply chain planning philosophy is that by
increasing forecast accuracy, you can better manage and
reduce inventory levels. Is this really true?
Does the trending data back up this common assumption?
The general rule of thumb claims 1% of forecast accuracy improvement should reduce inventory by 1%, up to about
an 80% accuracy level before hitting a point of diminishing
return. Over the last decade global companies have focused their efforts on supply chain management best practices. Despite the headlines and success stories, a recent survey revealed that 3 out of the 4 business sectors actually had their days-on-hand inventory increase… Why?
It’s time to get focused in on the trend lines, and understand what’s really fueling the headlines. This Leadership Exchange webinar will provide practical insight and pragmatic tips to connect forecast accuracy with inventory effectively.
A few key take-a-ways from this session include:
• Understanding how Forecast Accuracy impacts different Inventory types
• How to synchronize for results all the way down to the Plant level
• Where and When Forecast Bias fits into the mix
Make Forecast Accuracy Headlines That
Translate Into Inventory Reduction Trend Lines
Join our exclusive
Demand Planning
Leadership Exchange Group
on LinkedIn http://linkd.in/DPLeadershipExchange
A summary of tested principles I composed on improving forecast accuracy for a more reliable and efficient supply chain operation. These tips can be useful for Demand Managers and forecasters especially in a market involving wholesalers and distributors.
An educational course covering all aspects of supply chain management. Includes workshops to design and implement your own supply chain management function
Business Budgeting PowerPoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
This complete deck is oriented to make sure you do not lag in your presentations. Our creatively crafted slides come with apt research and planning. This exclusive deck with twenty slides is here to help you to strategize, plan, analyse, or segment the topic with clear understanding and apprehension. Utilize ready to use presentation slides on Business Budgeting Powerpoint Presentation Slides with all sorts of editable templates, charts and graphs, overviews, analysis templates. It is usable for marking important decisions and covering critical issues. Display and present all possible kinds of underlying nuances, progress factors for an all inclusive presentation for the teams. This presentation deck can be used by all professionals, managers, individuals, internal external teams involved in any company organization.
Taking Splunk to the Next Level - ManagementSplunk
Your team is up and running with Splunk. Now you want to maximize your investment and solve additional business problems. Attend this session led by a Splunk expert on how to expand beyond the initial use case. Learn how to how to capture, document and present Splunk's data and present impactful ways to calculate ROI using concrete metrics; cost savings, time savings, efficiency gains, and competitive advantage.
Download our professional PPT comprising extensively researched content and professional design layouts. Don t waste hours fiddling with PowerPoint toolbars and finding professional PowerPoint templates. This complete Strategic Facility Planning Powerpoint Presentation Slides saves hours of your time. Comprising a total of twenty one slides, the PowerPoint presentation is a visual masterpiece with professional PPT templates, data-driven graphs, charts and tables, a beautiful theme, impressive slide designs, icons, imagery and more. It is fully editable so that you can make changes to colors, data and fonts if you need to. Just enter your text in the placeholders provided and rock the meeting or conference you are presenting at.
You're an expert on your business and you understand its processes -- and pain points -- better than anyone. Join us to learn how to solve business problems by building user interfaces, logic, and more with our declarative tools. No coding required! We'll show you the latest declarative tools we have to build your apps, explain how and when to use specific tools over others, and give you the building blocks you need to build your own apps in the cloud.
Business Operations Strategy Model PowerPoint Presentation Slides SlideTeam
Want to analyse weekly organization performance review? Finding difficulty in making agenda for more efficient and effective operations. Here we are to help you with business operations strategy model PowerPoint presentation slides. This operational management presentation would be helpful in presenting and reviewing the business operations of the company. Our change management model PPT templates contains various slides on firm operations summary, milestones achieved, company objectives, firm challenges, partnering & alliance challenges, effective firm partnerships, risk mitigation strategies, product roadmap, competitive landscape, key performance indicators, new customer acquisition cost, customer’s lifetime value, operating plan and selection plan for the organisation to ensure smooth management operations. Our value chain analysis presentation slide designing and research team have done all the hard work for you. You can deploy the same supply chain management PowerPoint presentation for the topics like business strategy process model, organizational strategy operating model, strategic management, business operating system, strategic planning, business operational management, project production management, etc. So quickly download this business operations strategy model PowerPoint presentation.Arrive at correct inferences with our Business Operations Strategy Model PowerPoint Presentation Slides. Examine events in a chronological fashion.
Data Migration Strategies PowerPoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
Data migration is a key consideration of any system implementation. Discuss the data transfer plans with this content ready Data Migration Strategies PowerPoint Presentation Slides. Data transformation plan PowerPoint complete deck is a systematic presentation which includes PPT slides such as data migration approach, steps, a simplified illustration of data migration steps, lifecycle, process, data migration on the cloud, and many more. Besides this, data transfer plan PPT slides are apt to present related concepts like data conversion, data curation, data preservation, system migration to name a few. The content ready information transfer PPT visuals are fully editable. You can modify, color, text, and font size. It has relevant templates to cater to your business needs. Outline all the important concepts without any hassle. Showcase the process of selecting, preparing, extracting and transforming data using this professionally designed information migration plan presentation design.
Process planning SMED and VSM: Single minute exchange of die and Value stream...Yatinkumar Patel
in this presentation, two methods are described which is a very useful tool for process planning and production scheduling.
also, there are examples of this methods are well described.
Operational performance management is a key factor in successfully achieving the business target. Analyze the performance of your business with our content ready Operational Performance Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides. Evaluate business activities to meet organizational goals with the help of business operations management PPT slides. Assess regularly the performance of your business. you can also use performance measures PowerPoint template to showcase the level of operational performance, optimization of production factors, use of available resources, structure cost control and optimization. This deck is a guide for your business team. You can easily impart your information with this operational efficiency presentation graphics. These templates are designed in communicating way by our team of experts having in-depth knowledge of the subject. All the slides given in operational performance evaluation presentation are editable, users can change font size, color and text to make it more attractive. Acquaint folks with their great culture through our Operational Performance Management Powerpoint Presentation Slides. Inform them of their inheritance.
Business Continuity Management Powerpoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
"You can download this product from SlideTeam.net"
Presenting this set of slides with name Business Continuity Management Powerpoint Presentation Slides. This exclusive deck with fifty-two slides is here to help you to strategize, and plan the topic. Utilize ready to use presentation slides on Business Continuity Management Powerpoint Presentation Slides with all sorts of editable templates. Change the fonts, colors, font size, and font types of hour presentation as per your needs. The templates are compatible with Google Slides so it can be easily accessible. It can be saved into various file formats like PDF, JPG. And PNG. It is available in both standard and widescreen formats. https://bit.ly/34k0OuR
The disconnect between the delivery organization and the business is prevalent in the software industry. Somewhere along the line, the real vision behind our projects gets lost. We all know it. Can better metrics help? This session examines some common and not-so-common metrics and introduces Evidence Based Management as a guide for continuously measuring your business goals, aligning them with your software development efforts, and then deciding what to do next.
Gap Analysis Methods And Models PowerPoint Presentation Slides SlideTeam
Every organization needs to adapt to the ever-changing business environment. Sensing this need, we have come up with these content-ready change management PowerPoint presentation slides. These change management PPT templates will help you deal with any kind of an organizational change. Be it with people, goals or processes. The business solutions incorporated here will help you identify the organizational structure, create vision for change, implement strategies, identify resistance and risk, manage cost of change, get feedback and evaluation, and much more. With the help of various change management tools and techniques illustrated in this presentation design, you can achieve the desired business outcomes. This business transition PowerPoint design also covers certain related topics such as change model, transformation strategy, change readiness, change control, project management and business process. By implementing the change control methods mentioned in the presentation, you will be able to have a smooth transition in an organization. So, without waiting much, download our extensively researched change management framework presentation. With our Change Management Presentation slides, understand the need for change and plan to go through it without any hassles.
Big Apple Scrum Day 2015 - Advanced Scrum Metrics PresentationJason Tice
Presentation given at Big Apple Scrum Day 2015 on advanced metrics for agile and scrum teams. It is recommended that teams track a few metrics for each of the 5 categories outlined in the presentation to be able to assess the impact of activities supportive of continuous improvement. The presentation includes over 30 metrics to give teams ideas on what they can measure. There isn’t a requirement to track 30 metrics on a scrum or agile team but rather teams should track just enough metrics to be able to understand their performance.
Taking Splunk to the Next Level - ManagementSplunk
Your team is up and running with Splunk. Now you want to maximize your investment and solve additional business problems. Attend this session led by a Splunk expert on how to expand beyond the initial use case. Learn how to how to capture, document and present Splunk's data and present impactful ways to calculate ROI using concrete metrics; cost savings, time savings, efficiency gains, and competitive advantage.
Download our professional PPT comprising extensively researched content and professional design layouts. Don t waste hours fiddling with PowerPoint toolbars and finding professional PowerPoint templates. This complete Strategic Facility Planning Powerpoint Presentation Slides saves hours of your time. Comprising a total of twenty one slides, the PowerPoint presentation is a visual masterpiece with professional PPT templates, data-driven graphs, charts and tables, a beautiful theme, impressive slide designs, icons, imagery and more. It is fully editable so that you can make changes to colors, data and fonts if you need to. Just enter your text in the placeholders provided and rock the meeting or conference you are presenting at.
You're an expert on your business and you understand its processes -- and pain points -- better than anyone. Join us to learn how to solve business problems by building user interfaces, logic, and more with our declarative tools. No coding required! We'll show you the latest declarative tools we have to build your apps, explain how and when to use specific tools over others, and give you the building blocks you need to build your own apps in the cloud.
Business Operations Strategy Model PowerPoint Presentation Slides SlideTeam
Want to analyse weekly organization performance review? Finding difficulty in making agenda for more efficient and effective operations. Here we are to help you with business operations strategy model PowerPoint presentation slides. This operational management presentation would be helpful in presenting and reviewing the business operations of the company. Our change management model PPT templates contains various slides on firm operations summary, milestones achieved, company objectives, firm challenges, partnering & alliance challenges, effective firm partnerships, risk mitigation strategies, product roadmap, competitive landscape, key performance indicators, new customer acquisition cost, customer’s lifetime value, operating plan and selection plan for the organisation to ensure smooth management operations. Our value chain analysis presentation slide designing and research team have done all the hard work for you. You can deploy the same supply chain management PowerPoint presentation for the topics like business strategy process model, organizational strategy operating model, strategic management, business operating system, strategic planning, business operational management, project production management, etc. So quickly download this business operations strategy model PowerPoint presentation.Arrive at correct inferences with our Business Operations Strategy Model PowerPoint Presentation Slides. Examine events in a chronological fashion.
Data Migration Strategies PowerPoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
Data migration is a key consideration of any system implementation. Discuss the data transfer plans with this content ready Data Migration Strategies PowerPoint Presentation Slides. Data transformation plan PowerPoint complete deck is a systematic presentation which includes PPT slides such as data migration approach, steps, a simplified illustration of data migration steps, lifecycle, process, data migration on the cloud, and many more. Besides this, data transfer plan PPT slides are apt to present related concepts like data conversion, data curation, data preservation, system migration to name a few. The content ready information transfer PPT visuals are fully editable. You can modify, color, text, and font size. It has relevant templates to cater to your business needs. Outline all the important concepts without any hassle. Showcase the process of selecting, preparing, extracting and transforming data using this professionally designed information migration plan presentation design.
Process planning SMED and VSM: Single minute exchange of die and Value stream...Yatinkumar Patel
in this presentation, two methods are described which is a very useful tool for process planning and production scheduling.
also, there are examples of this methods are well described.
Operational performance management is a key factor in successfully achieving the business target. Analyze the performance of your business with our content ready Operational Performance Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides. Evaluate business activities to meet organizational goals with the help of business operations management PPT slides. Assess regularly the performance of your business. you can also use performance measures PowerPoint template to showcase the level of operational performance, optimization of production factors, use of available resources, structure cost control and optimization. This deck is a guide for your business team. You can easily impart your information with this operational efficiency presentation graphics. These templates are designed in communicating way by our team of experts having in-depth knowledge of the subject. All the slides given in operational performance evaluation presentation are editable, users can change font size, color and text to make it more attractive. Acquaint folks with their great culture through our Operational Performance Management Powerpoint Presentation Slides. Inform them of their inheritance.
Business Continuity Management Powerpoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
"You can download this product from SlideTeam.net"
Presenting this set of slides with name Business Continuity Management Powerpoint Presentation Slides. This exclusive deck with fifty-two slides is here to help you to strategize, and plan the topic. Utilize ready to use presentation slides on Business Continuity Management Powerpoint Presentation Slides with all sorts of editable templates. Change the fonts, colors, font size, and font types of hour presentation as per your needs. The templates are compatible with Google Slides so it can be easily accessible. It can be saved into various file formats like PDF, JPG. And PNG. It is available in both standard and widescreen formats. https://bit.ly/34k0OuR
The disconnect between the delivery organization and the business is prevalent in the software industry. Somewhere along the line, the real vision behind our projects gets lost. We all know it. Can better metrics help? This session examines some common and not-so-common metrics and introduces Evidence Based Management as a guide for continuously measuring your business goals, aligning them with your software development efforts, and then deciding what to do next.
Gap Analysis Methods And Models PowerPoint Presentation Slides SlideTeam
Every organization needs to adapt to the ever-changing business environment. Sensing this need, we have come up with these content-ready change management PowerPoint presentation slides. These change management PPT templates will help you deal with any kind of an organizational change. Be it with people, goals or processes. The business solutions incorporated here will help you identify the organizational structure, create vision for change, implement strategies, identify resistance and risk, manage cost of change, get feedback and evaluation, and much more. With the help of various change management tools and techniques illustrated in this presentation design, you can achieve the desired business outcomes. This business transition PowerPoint design also covers certain related topics such as change model, transformation strategy, change readiness, change control, project management and business process. By implementing the change control methods mentioned in the presentation, you will be able to have a smooth transition in an organization. So, without waiting much, download our extensively researched change management framework presentation. With our Change Management Presentation slides, understand the need for change and plan to go through it without any hassles.
Big Apple Scrum Day 2015 - Advanced Scrum Metrics PresentationJason Tice
Presentation given at Big Apple Scrum Day 2015 on advanced metrics for agile and scrum teams. It is recommended that teams track a few metrics for each of the 5 categories outlined in the presentation to be able to assess the impact of activities supportive of continuous improvement. The presentation includes over 30 metrics to give teams ideas on what they can measure. There isn’t a requirement to track 30 metrics on a scrum or agile team but rather teams should track just enough metrics to be able to understand their performance.
Forecasting Essentials for SPI Buyer DirectSPI Conference
How/when does your company measure forecast accuracy and discuss tips to improve. Review mix management and product variance. Presented by Linda Szymanski (Customer Experience Consultant, SPI) at the 2016 SPI Conference.
What is Forecasting?
Forecasting is a technique of predicting the future based on the results of previous data. It involves a
detailed analysis of past and present trends or events to predict future events. It uses statistical tools and
techniques. Therefore, it is also called Statistical analysis. In other words, we can say that forecasting acts
as a planning tool that helps enterprises to get ready for the uncertainty that can occur in the future.
Forecasting begins with management's experience and knowledge sharing. To obtain the most numerous
advantages from forecasts, organizations must know the different forecasting methods' more subtle
details. Also, understand what an appropriate forecasting method type can and cannot do, and realize
what forecast type is best suited to a specific need. Let's list down some significant benefits of forecasting:
• Better utilization of resources
• Formulating business plans
• Enhance the quality of management
• Helps in establishing a new business model
• Helps in making the best managerial decisions
A set of observations taken at a particular period of time. For example, having a set of login details at
regular interval of time of each user can be categorized as a time series. Click to explore about, Anomaly
Detection with Time Series Forecasting
What is Prediction?
Prediction is using the data to compute the Outcome of the unseen data.
How does Prediction work?
Firstly, the daily data is fetched from the market once at a time in a day and update it into the database.
Now, the prediction cycle along with learning developed with the use of newly combined data. Historical
data collected and the learning and prediction cycle developed to generate the results. The prediction
results obtained in the form of the various set of periods such as two days, four days, 14 days and so on.
Difference between Prediction and Forecasting
Prediction is the process of estimating the outcomes of unseen data. Forecasting is a sub-discipline of
prediction in which we use time-series data to make forecasts about the future. As a result, the only
distinction between prediction and forecasting is that we consider the temporal dimension. Confusing?
So do we forecast the weather or predict the weather? Consider this, What are the chances that it will
continue to rain in five minutes if it is already raining? Since it is raining right now, regardless of any other
factors that affect the weather (such as air pressure and temperature), the chances of it raining again in
five minutes are high. Right?vThe temporal dimension is whether it is raining right now or not? Without
that forecasting the next 5 mins wouldn't make much sense.
Time-Series refers to data recording at regular intervals of time. Click to explore about, Time Series
Forecasting Analysis
Why Forecasting is important?
Prediction of labor, material and other resources are highly crucial for operating. If the services are
Predicting better, then balanced
Model Attribute Check Company Auto PropertyCeline George
In Odoo, the multi-company feature allows you to manage multiple companies within a single Odoo database instance. Each company can have its own configurations while still sharing common resources such as products, customers, and suppliers.
A Strategic Approach: GenAI in EducationPeter Windle
Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies such as Generative AI, Image Generators and Large Language Models have had a dramatic impact on teaching, learning and assessment over the past 18 months. The most immediate threat AI posed was to Academic Integrity with Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) focusing their efforts on combating the use of GenAI in assessment. Guidelines were developed for staff and students, policies put in place too. Innovative educators have forged paths in the use of Generative AI for teaching, learning and assessments leading to pockets of transformation springing up across HEIs, often with little or no top-down guidance, support or direction.
This Gasta posits a strategic approach to integrating AI into HEIs to prepare staff, students and the curriculum for an evolving world and workplace. We will highlight the advantages of working with these technologies beyond the realm of teaching, learning and assessment by considering prompt engineering skills, industry impact, curriculum changes, and the need for staff upskilling. In contrast, not engaging strategically with Generative AI poses risks, including falling behind peers, missed opportunities and failing to ensure our graduates remain employable. The rapid evolution of AI technologies necessitates a proactive and strategic approach if we are to remain relevant.
Biological screening of herbal drugs: Introduction and Need for
Phyto-Pharmacological Screening, New Strategies for evaluating
Natural Products, In vitro evaluation techniques for Antioxidants, Antimicrobial and Anticancer drugs. In vivo evaluation techniques
for Anti-inflammatory, Antiulcer, Anticancer, Wound healing, Antidiabetic, Hepatoprotective, Cardio protective, Diuretics and
Antifertility, Toxicity studies as per OECD guidelines
Instructions for Submissions thorugh G- Classroom.pptxJheel Barad
This presentation provides a briefing on how to upload submissions and documents in Google Classroom. It was prepared as part of an orientation for new Sainik School in-service teacher trainees. As a training officer, my goal is to ensure that you are comfortable and proficient with this essential tool for managing assignments and fostering student engagement.
Francesca Gottschalk - How can education support child empowerment.pptxEduSkills OECD
Francesca Gottschalk from the OECD’s Centre for Educational Research and Innovation presents at the Ask an Expert Webinar: How can education support child empowerment?
Welcome to TechSoup New Member Orientation and Q&A (May 2024).pdfTechSoup
In this webinar you will learn how your organization can access TechSoup's wide variety of product discount and donation programs. From hardware to software, we'll give you a tour of the tools available to help your nonprofit with productivity, collaboration, financial management, donor tracking, security, and more.
Introduction to AI for Nonprofits with Tapp NetworkTechSoup
Dive into the world of AI! Experts Jon Hill and Tareq Monaur will guide you through AI's role in enhancing nonprofit websites and basic marketing strategies, making it easy to understand and apply.
Read| The latest issue of The Challenger is here! We are thrilled to announce that our school paper has qualified for the NATIONAL SCHOOLS PRESS CONFERENCE (NSPC) 2024. Thank you for your unwavering support and trust. Dive into the stories that made us stand out!
2. FORECASTFORECAST
• A statement about the future value of a variable of
interest.
– Forecasts are the basis for budgeting, planning capacity,
sales, production and inventory, personnel, purchasing and
many more.
– Forecasts play an important role in the planning process
because they enable managers to anticipate the future so
they can plan accordingly.
• Forecasts affect decisions and activities throughout an
organization –
– Accounting, Finance, Human resource, Marketing, MIS,
Operations, Product / service design.
3. FORECASTFORECAST
Accounting Cost/profit estimates
Finance Cash flow and funding
Human Resources Hiring/recruiting/training
Marketing Pricing, promotion, strategy
MIS IT/IS systems, services
Operations Schedules, MRP, workloads
Product/service design New products and services
4. COMMON FEATURES TO ALL FORECASTSCOMMON FEATURES TO ALL FORECASTS
• Assumes causal system
past ==> future
• Forecasts rarely perfect because of randomness
• Forecasts more accurate for groups vs. individuals
• Forecast accuracy decreases as time horizon
increases
I see that you will
get an A+ this semester
5. • The forecast should be timely.
• The forecast should be accurate and the degree of
accuracy should be stated.
• The forecast should be reliable; it should work
consistently.
• The forecast should be expressed in meaningful
units.
• The forecast should be in writing.
• The forecasting technique should be simple to
understand and use.
• The forecast should be cost effective.
ELEMENTS OF A GOOD FORECASTELEMENTS OF A GOOD FORECAST
6. STEPS IN THE FORECASTING PROCESSSTEPS IN THE FORECASTING PROCESS
6. Check forecast
accuracy with one or
more measures
4. Select a forecast
model that seems
appropriate for data
5. Develop/compute
forecast for period of
historical data
8a. Forecast over
planning horizon
9. Adjust forecast based
on additional qualitative
information and insight
10. Monitor results and
measure forecast
accuracy
8b. Select new
forecast model or
adjust parameters of
existing model
7.
Is accuracy of
forecast
acceptable?
1. Identify the
purpose of forecast
3. Plot data and identify
patterns
2. Collect historical data
No
Yes
7. • Judgmental Forecasts
– Forecasts that use subjective inputs such as opinions
from consumer surveys, sales staff, managers,
executives and experts.
• Time - series Forecasts
– Forecasts that project patterns identified in recent
time - series observations.
• Associative Model
– Forecasting technique that uses explanatory variables
to predict future demand.
APPROACHES TO FORECASTINGAPPROACHES TO FORECASTING
8. • A time series is a time ordered sequence of
observations taken at regular intervals; e.g. –
hourly, daily, weekly, monthly etc.
– Analysis of time series data requires the analyst to
identify the underlying behavior of the series. This
can often be accomplished by merely plotting the
data and visually examining the plot.
– Different patterns are –
• Trend, Seasonality, Cycles, Irregular variations and Random
variations.
TIME - SERIES FORECASTSTIME - SERIES FORECASTS
9. • Trend - A long term upward or downward
movement in data.
• Seasonality - Short term regular variations
related to the calendar or time of day.
• Cycle - Wavelike variations lasting more than
one year.
• Irregular variation - Caused by unusual
circumstances, not reflective of typical
TIME - SERIES FORECASTS (CONTD.)TIME - SERIES FORECASTS (CONTD.)
10. TIME - SERIES FORECASTS (CONTD.)TIME - SERIES FORECASTS (CONTD.)
Trend
Irregular
variation
Seasonal variations
90
89
88
Cycles
11. • Naive Method
– The forecast for any period equals the previous
period’s value.
• The naive approach can be used with a stable series (variations
around an average), with seasonal variations or with trend.
• Techniques for Averaging
– Moving Average
– Weighted Moving Average
– Exponential Smoothing
FORECASTING METHODFORECASTING METHOD
12. • Technique that averages a number of recent
actual values, updated as new values become
available.
MOVING AVERAGEMOVING AVERAGE
MAn =
n
Aii = 1
∑
n
13. • More recent values in a series are given more
weight in computing the forecast.
WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGEWEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHINGEXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
Weighted averaging method based on previous forecast plus a
percentage of the forecast error.
Ft = Ft-1 + α(At-1 - Ft-1)
14. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Average absolute error
Mean Squared Error (MSE)
Average of squared error
Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)
Average absolute percent error
FORECAST ACCURACYFORECAST ACCURACY
MAD=
Actual forecast−∑
n
MSE =
Actual forecast)
-1
2
−∑
n
(
MAPE=
Actual forecast−
n
/ Actual)*100%)∑((