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Living Longer –
How Our Population
is Changing and
Why it Matters
1
• The Government Statistical Service’s purpose is to strengthen
the evidence that the public and policy makers need for their
decision making.
• Better evidence is in the public good – this is a crucial time for
the UK to respond to an ageing population.
• The UK does not have a comprehensive and coherent evidence
base. In partnership with the Devolved Administrations and
others, ONS wants to change that.
“Better Statistics, Better Decisions”
3
Population Ageing - Demography
4
An additional 8.6 million UK residents are projected to be aged 65
and over by 2066 – almost the size of London today.
Population pyramids, 1966, 2016 and 2066, (principal projection), UK
Source: Population estimates, Principal population projections, 2016-based, Office for National Statistics
The older population is growing faster than younger age groups.
5Source: Population estimates, Principal population projections, 2016-based, Office for National Statistics
Population by age group, selected years UK
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1966 1991 2016 2041 2066
Millions
under 16 16 to 64 65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
6
There is variation in the ageing population across local areas.
Proportion of the population aged 65 and over, 2016 and 2039, UK
Source: 2016 mid-year population estimates for UK, Office for National Statistics, 2014-based subnational population projections for UK, Office
for National Statistics, Welsh Government, National Records Scotland and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Authority. Contains OS data
© Crown copyright 2018.
7
Older people are more likely to live in rural areas than
younger people…
Source: Statistical Digest of Rural England, 2018, DEFRA
Contains public sector information licensed under the
Open Government Licence v3.0.
Average age in rural & urban areas in England,
2002 to 2016
Percentage of population within age bands by rural-urban
classification (LSOA) in England, 2016
Source: Statistical Digest of Rural England, 2018, DEFRA
Contains public sector information licensed under the
Open Government Licence v3.0.
8
…with urban areas ageing less quickly than rural areas.
Percentage increase in population between 2016 and 2039
by rural-urban classification (LSOA), England
Source: 2014-based subnational population projections for England and Rural Urban Classification
(2011) of Lower Layer Super Output Areas in England and Wales, Office for National Statistics
The population aged 65+ will grow
by around 50% in both urban and in
rural areas between 2016 and 2039.
However, rural areas will see
negligible growth in the population
aged under 65, while it increases by
8% in urban areas.
The effect of this is an increase in
the ratio of older to younger people,
particularly in rural areas.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Aged 0 to 64 Aged 65+
%
Predominantly rural Urban with significant rural Predominantly urban
Global population aged 60 years and over
9
We are not alone - the
world’s population is
also ageing…
Source: Global AgeWatch Index 2015, HelpAge International
(projected)
10
…including the rest of Europe.
Source: World Population Prospects the 2017 revision, custom data acquired via website, UNDESA Population Division
Percentage of population
aged 65 years and over,
EU countries, 2015
Percentage of population
aged 65 years and over,
EU countries, 2035 (projected)
Percentage of population
aged 85 years and over,
EU countries, 2015
Percentage of population
aged 85 years and over,
EU countries, 2035 (projected)
Declining mortality and fertility rates
have caused population ageing.
11Source: World Population Prospects the 2017 revision, custom data acquired via website, UNDESA Population Division
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
Total Fertility
Rate (children
per woman)
Global UK
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
Age
Standardised*
Mortality,
Rate per 1,000
population
Global UK
*Standardised to 1950 global
population age structure
12
Life expectancy has increased,
and this is expected to continue at a slightly slower rate…
Period and cohort life expectancy at birth,
UK, males and females
Source: Past and projected data from the period and cohort life tables, 2016-based, UK: 1981 to 2066, Office for National Statistics
Percentage of people expected to survive to age 100
100 by year of birth, UK, males and females
A higher proportion of people can expect to live
to age100 – almost doubling in next 50 years
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1982 1992 2002 2012 2022 2032 2042 2052 2062
%
Males Females
70
80
90
100
1982 1992 2002 2012 2022 2032 2042 2052 2062
Male period Female period Male cohort Female cohort
years
…but more deprived areas have lower life expectancy.
13
Life expectancy (period) at birth by index of multiple deprivation,
England, 2014-16
Source: Health state life expectancies by national deprivation deciles, England and Wales: 2014 to 2016, Office for National Statistics
Men born in the most deprived
areas can expect to die 9.4 years
before men born in the least
deprived areas.
For women the equivalent figure
is 7.4 years.
70 75 80 85 90
Least deprived
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
Most deprived
years
females males
14
Population Ageing – Policy Areas
Ageing is a cross-cutting issue with implications
for multiple policy areas.
15
e.g.
• Older workers
• Labour force structure
• Job availability
• Pensions
• Tax
• Financial decisions
e.g.
• Health requirements
• Social care
• Transport
• Housing needs
• End of life
• Accessible cities
e.g.
• Digital inclusion
• Wellbeing
• Intergenerational
issues
• Crime
• Communities
Economy and finance Services and needs Society and the
individual
16
Population Ageing – Implications
for Economy and Finance
17
There will be increasingly more people of pension age
for every person of working age.
Source: Population estimates, State Pension age factors, Principal Population Projections, 2016-based, Office for National Statistics
Old age dependency ratio, 1966 to 2066 (projected), UK
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036 2046 2056 2066
Number of people of
State Pension Age per 1,000
of working age
While a larger proportion of older men used
to work in 1968 than today…
18Source: IFS Report R98, Retirement in the 21st Century, 2014, Daniel Chandler and Gemma Tetlow, © Institute for Fiscal Studies
Employment rates of older men,
UK, 1968-2013
Employment rates of older women,
UK, 1968-2013
…the number of older workers has risen since the beginning of
the century…
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Nov-
Jan
1998
Nov-
Jan
2000
Nov-
Jan
2002
Nov-
Jan
2004
Nov-
Jan
2006
Nov-
Jan
2008
Nov-
Jan
2010
Nov-
Jan
2012
Nov-
Jan
2014
Nov-
Jan
2016
Nov-
Jan
2018
Thousands
Number of adults aged 65 and over in
employment, 1998 to 2018
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Nov-
Jan
1998
Nov-
Jan
2000
Nov-
Jan
2002
Nov-
Jan
2004
Nov-
Jan
2006
Nov-
Jan
2008
Nov-
Jan
2010
Nov-
Jan
2012
Nov-
Jan
2014
Nov-
Jan
2016
Nov-
Jan
2018
%
Employment rates of adults aged 65 and over,
1998 to 2018
19Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics
…the biggest increases in employment rates have been
at older ages…
20Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics
0
20
40
60
80
100
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Employment at ages 50 to 64 and 65 & over,
Men and Women, 1993 to 2018, UK
Men 50-64
Women 50-64
Men 65 & over
Women 65 &
over
%
17.5 percentage points
8.8 percentage points
Employment rates doubled for ages 65+ between
1993 and 2018, and increased by almost a third for
ages 50-64.
Increases in employment rates at ages 50-64 are partly due
to increased employment of women over time, as the gap in
employment rates between men and women narrows, in line
with increases in state pension age for women.
Employment by age group, 1993 to 2018, UK
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+
1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018
%
21
…with older workers more likely to be self-employed than younger
workers and working because they are not ready to stop.
Main reason for working beyond State Pension Age,
2015, UK
Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Due to opportunities to work more
flexible hours
To boost pension pot
To pay for desirable items (such as
holidays)
Employer needs your experience or
you are needed in the family…
Other reason
To pay for essential items (such as
bills)
Not ready to stop work
%
Women Men
Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
16 & over
State Pension age
& over
Self-employed Employees
Employee and self-employed split of those working
past State Pension Age, 2014, UK
Notes:
1. Based on a persons main job
2. State Pension age takes into account the incremental increases in female State Pension age since 2010
3. Dataset used is for April to June 2014
4. Does not include those in “other employment”
5. "Other employment" includes government employment & training programmes, and unpaid family workers
Older people have higher income satisfaction and find it easier to get
by financially than younger people.
22
1. Respondents are asked to rate how satisfied they are with their household
income using ratings from "completely dissatisfied" to "completely satisfied".
Responses for mostly and completely satisfied are included in the chart.
2. 95% confidence intervals are displayed on the chart as error bars.
People who report finding it quite or very difficult to get by
financially1,2: by age, 2015 to 2016, UK
People who were mostly or completely satisfied with the
income of their household1,2: by age,2015 to 2016, UK
1. Respondents are asked to rate how they were coping financially from
"finding it very difficult" to "living comfortably".
2. 95% confidence intervals are displayed on the chart as error bars.
Source: Measuring National Well-being: Domains and Measures (data from Understanding Society, the UK Household Longitudinal Study),
Office for National Statistics
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 & over
%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 & over
%
Incomes for retired households are lower
than for non-retired households…
23Source: Household disposable income and inequality in the UK: financial year ending 2017, Office for National Statistics
Median equivalised disposable household income by household type, UK,
financial year ending 2017
Note: Estimates have been adjusted to take account of inflation
…and income inequality for retired households is also lower.
24
Average disposable incomes with and without private
pensions, UK, 1977 to financial year ending 2016
Despite income being £10,000 higher for retired
households with a private pension.
Gini coefficients for disposable income by household type,
UK, 1977 to financial year ending 2017
Lower Gini coefficient indicates more equality.
Source: Household disposable income and inequality in the UK: financial year ending 2017, Office for National Statistics
The next generation of retirees are more likely to have a personal
pension because of auto-enrolment.
25
Auto-enrolment since
October 2012 has
boosted uptake of
workplace pensions.
This means pensions
for future retirees are
likely to be defined
contribution.
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings pension tables, UK: 2017 provisional and 2016 revised results, Office for National Statistics
Proportion of employees with workplace pensions by type of pension,
UK, 1997 to 2017
Pensions are the biggest welfare outgoing.
26Source: How is the welfare budget spent?, Office for National Statistics
Welfare budget spending items, UK, 2016-17
Pensions
£111bn
42%
Incapacity,
disability &
injury benefits
£44bn
16%
Unemployment
benefits
£2bn
1%
Housing
benefits
£25bn
10%
Family benefits,
Income support
& tax credits
£46bn
18%
Personal social
services and
other benefits
£35bn
13%
As the population has aged, public expenditure on state pensions and
health have gone up.
27
Source: Expenditure on health care (figure 17) and GDP, ONS **Figures refer to
government healthcare expenditure only and exclude private spending. Seasonally
adjusted GDP was used. Estimates from the “Expenditure on Healthcare in the UK”
series are used here as the time series available stretches back to 1997. However,
it should be noted that these estimates differ from the headline measure for
healthcare expenditure as a percentage of GDP in the UK health accounts,
which is produced to the latest internationally-standardised definitions.
Source: Expenditure on state pension and GDP, ONS
*State pension expenditure (also called social security benefits in cash) excluding
other benefits Seasonally adjusted GDP was used.
UK public spending on health as a percentage of GDP, UK,
1997-2016**
UK public spending on state pensions as a percentage of
GDP, UK, 1997-2016*
Public spending on state pensions increased from 3.6% to
4.6% of GDP between 1997 and 2016 while public spending
on health increased from 4.4% to 6.9% of GDP.
0
1
2
3
4
5
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% of GDP
% of GDP
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% of GDP
% of GDP
Tax revenues and government expenditure on welfare and public
services are influenced by the population age structure.
28Source: OBR Fiscal sustainability report, January 2017Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Tax revenue predominantly
comes from middle age
groups.
Spending on health, long-
term care, and welfare
(including pensions,
disability benefits, and
attendance allowance) is
higher at older ages.
Representative profiles for tax, public services, and welfare spending,
UK, 2021-2022
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
July 2006 to
June 2008
July 2008 to
June 2010
July 2010 to
June 2012
July 2012 to
June 2014
July 2014 to
June 2016
Net Household
Property Wealth
(£)
30 to 32 60 to 62
Wealth increases with age until around age 65…
29
Median household wealth by age and wealth
component by age of household reference person,
Great Britain, July 2014 - June 2016
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 - 84 85 and
over
Property Wealth (net) Financial Wealth (net)
Physical Wealth Private Pension Wealth
(£)
Median household net property wealth of those
aged 30 to 32 years and aged 60 to 62 years based
on the age of the household reference person, UK
Source: Wealth and Assets Survey, Office for National Statistics Source: Economic Well-being, UK: October to December 2017, Office for National Statistics
Over time, the wealth of younger people (in their early 30’s) has declined.
Note: The Household Reference Person is defined as the sole householder in one person households, the person with the highest income in joint person households and in
households where householders have the same income, the oldest is taken as the HRP
…but younger generations have less wealth
than those that came before them.
30Source: Resolution Foundation, The Generation of Wealth, 2017, C. D'Arcy & L. Gardiner (resolutionfoundation.org)
Up until the late 50’s, adults on
average do not accumulate as much
wealth as those who were born five
years before them had done by the
same age.
However, this trend is reversed for
those aged 60 and over.
Those aged 25 are worst affected,
accumulating 84% less wealth than
those aged 25, five years previously.
Median family total net wealth per adult in 2012-14, as a proportion of the
preceding cohort’s wealth in 2006-08, GB
Future retirees may be less likely to own a home in retirement.
31
16
21
26
31
36
2003-04 2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16
Years
Average age of first time buyers
England, 2003-04 to 2016-17
First time buyers by age, England,
1995-96, 2005-06 and 2015-16
Percentage of families (singles or couples) owning their
own home, 1961 – 2017, by age group, UK
Lower levels of home ownership and later age at
first purchase in pre-retirees may result in more
future retirees renting or paying off a mortgage into
later life.
Source: Resolution Foundation, Housing data (resolutionfoundation.org)
Note: There is a change of data source in 1984, resulting in small inconsistencies.
Prior to 1980, housing association renters are included in the private rented sector.
Prior to 1984, full-time students in parents’ homes are included as single adults in
parents’ homes.
Source: English Housing Survey, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
The average age of
first time buyers is
increasing. This has
largely been driven by
decreases in the
percentage of first time
buyers aged 16-24.
Younger generations
(<65) have seen a
decrease in home
ownership rates in
recent years, with
bigger decreases
at younger ages.
Renting has become more common for all ages
apart from the oldest…
32
1.1 2.7
7.5
18.8
49.0
71.0 69.4
13.3
48.7
59.6
55.3
30.0
6.5
2.5
27.5
17.5
17.2
16.5
14.0 18.3
22.9
58.1
31.0
15.6
9.4 7.0 4.2 5.2
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75
& over
own outright buying with mortgage all social renters all private renters
Tenure by age of household reference person,
England, 2008-09
3.4 3.5 7.5
19.0
45.4
71.9 74.6
6.8
34.7
48.7
47.8
26.5
6.3 2.8
25.5
15.7
17.4
18.4
16.5
15.4 17.6
64.3
46.1
26.4
14.8 11.6
6.4 5.1
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75
& over
own outright buying with mortgage all social renters all private renters
Tenure by age of household reference person,
England, 2015-16
Source: English Housing Survey, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government,2015-16
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
People aged 25 to 34 in England are now more likely to be ‘privately renting’ than ‘buying with a mortgage’.
…and in early adulthood private renting has now overtaken
owner occupation…
33
Source: English Housing Survey, 2016 to 2017, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Over the last decade, the
proportion of households
where the Household
Reference Person (HRP) is
aged 25 to 34 and 35 to 44
years old, which are owner-
occupied, decreased by
34% and 27% respectively.
Trends in tenure, households with a HRP aged 25-34 or 35-44, 2006-07 to 2016-17
…as houses have become more expensive.
34
House prices have doubled relative to
average earnings in the last 20 years.
This is due to house prices increasing
faster than earnings.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Ratio of median house price to median annual
earnings, England and Wales, 1997 to 2017
Affordability ratio
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Median price paid for property and annual earnings
indices England and Wales, 1997 to 2017
House Prices Earnings
Index (1997 = 100)
Source: Housing affordability in England and Wales: 2017, Office for National Statistics
Trends in tenure, England, 1980 to 2016-17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
percentage
owner occupiers private renters social renters
For those renting, private has become more common than
social renting…
35
Source: English Housing Survey 2016-17, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Renting is the main option for
people who do not own a
home in retirement.
The private rental sector is
now larger than the social
rented sector.
…with increases in private renting across all income groups.
Home ownership levels have declined
and private renting has increased.
For middle and higher income groups,
this has mainly be driven by
reductions in owner-occupiers.
For low income groups, increases in
private renting are associated with
reductions in social renting.
36
Change in percentage of British population in each housing
tenure, 1994-1996 to 2013-2015
Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies, The cost of housing for low-income renters, Robert Joyce, Matthew Mitchell, Agnes Norris Keiller,
© Institute for Fiscal Studies
Population Ageing – Services
and Needs
37
Older adults tend to live in more rural areas, where access to
services is more difficult…
38
Source: Journey time statistics: access to services 2014,
Department for Transport. Contains public sector information
licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.Source: 2014 mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics
Proportion of the population
aged 65 and over, 2014
Average minimum travel time
for 8 key local services
(minutes), 2014
% 65+
Travel time
(minutes)
..and where there is less public transport available, people could
be more reliant on cars.
39
Source: Department for Transport, National Travel Survey
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Source: Department for Transport, National Travel Survey
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
There is less bus availability in smaller rural settlements
in England and in these areas car ownership is much
higher than in urban areas.
Bus availability indicator by settlement type,
in England, 2002 to 2012
Household car availability by settlement type,
in England, 2014/15
However, car use declines with age, as health deteriorates…
40
These factors can leave older
people in rural areas isolated,
particularly those who cannot
afford to pay for taxis, or do not
have family members/neighbours
who can help with transport,
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
17-20 21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+
Percentage
Age
Full car driving license holders by age and gender,
England, 2016
Source: Department for Transport, Driving licence holding and vehicle availability (NTS02)
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
…and without access to a car, inadequate public transport makes it
harder to access health services.
41
Proportion of older people who can travel to the hospital
easily, by age group, 2008 to 2012, England
Source: Future of Transport in an Ageing Society, (ELSA data), ILC-UK and Age UK
Reasons for not using public transport given by those over 65,
2012-13, England
Around half of remaining life is spent in poor health at age 65.
42
9.3
10.1
10.0
10.5
10.4
10.6
11.2
10.7
11.3
11.2
9.0
7.3
8.2
8.2
8.2
10.0
8.5
9.8
9.8
9.7
0 5 10 15 20 25
Males: Northern Ireland
Males: Scotland
Males: Wales
Males: England
Males: United Kingdom
Females: Northern Ireland
Females: Scotland
Females: Wales
Females: England
Females: United Kingdom
Years'In good health' 'Not in good health'
Proportion of
life spent ‘in
good health’
53.6
53.4
52.2
56.7
51.3
56.0
56.0
54.8
57.9
50.6
Source: Health state life expectancies, UK: 2014 to 2016, (Data from Annual Population Survey), Office for National Statistics
Life expectancy and the proportion of life spent in good health
at age 65 years, by sex, 2014 to 2016, UK and constituent countries
There is regional variation
in how long someone can
expect to live at age 65,
and how much of this will
be in good health.
A larger proportion of
remaining life in good health
does not automatically
mean a higher life
expectancy.
Scotland is the country with
the highest proportion in
good health, but the lowest
life expectancy at age 65.
Those on lower incomes and in the poorest health find it most
difficult to access health services.
43
Source: Future of Transport in an Ageing Society, (ELSA data), ILC-UK and Age UK
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Prevalence of multimorbidity by age and socioeconomic status,
England, 2018
Ease of travelling to healthcare facilities among those
65 and over, England, 2012-13
On socioeconomic status scale, 1=most affluent and 5=most deprived
Source: The epidemiology of multimorbidity in primary care: a retrospective
cohort study. Cassell A, Edwards D, Harshfield A, Rhodes K, Brimicombe J,
Payne R, Griffin S. British Journal of General Practice. 2018 Apr; 6(669):
e245–e251.Copyright License (http://creativecommons.org/licences/by-
nc/4.0/).
Healthcare demand increases with age…
44
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Est. spend per
person per year
£s
Age
NHS General and acute care
age-cost curve, 2013 to 2014, England
Males
Females
Source: Trends in the number of English NHS hospital admissions,
The Health Foundation
Source: Technical Guide to Allocation Formulae and Pace of Change,
2016/17, NHS England. Contains public sector information licensed
under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Trends in number of NHS hospital admissions
in England, 2006/07 to 2015/16
…because the number of health conditions increase with age…
45
Having several health
conditions increases the
complexity of treatment.
Some common health
conditions associated
with older age are:
- Hearing impairment
- Visual impairment
- Heart disease
- Dementia
- Stroke
- Rheumatoid arthritis
- Diabetes
- Cancer
Number of grouped health conditions by age, 2016, England
Source: Health Survey for England, 2016, NHS Digital
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45- 49 50- 54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+
Percentage
Age group (years)
6 conditions
5 conditions
4 conditions
3 conditions
2 conditions
1 conditions
0 conditions
...particularly age-related health conditions
such as dementia…
46
Diagnosed Dementia Prevalence (%)
by age group, England, 2016
Source: House of Commons Library, Dementia: policy, services and statistics
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government
Licence v3.0.
The prevalence in this chart is likely to be underestimated, as it
only shows diagnosed cases.
Source: Dementia: applying All Our Health, Public Health England
and Diagnosis in the UK, Alzheimers Research UK and Dementia
Statistics Hub
It is estimated that 850,000 people in the UK are living with
dementia but only around two-thirds have been given a
dementia diagnosis by their GP or memory service.
£
…while satisfaction with health decreases with age.
47
Source: Measuring National Well-being: Domains and Measures (data from Understanding Society, the UK Household Longitudinal Study),
Office for National Statistics
Percentage who were mostly or completely satisfied with
their health1,2: by age, 2015 to 2016, UK
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 and over
%
1. Respondents were asked to rate their health from "Completely dissatisfied" to "Completely
satisfied". Responses for mostly and completely satisfied are included in the chart.
2. 95% confidence intervals are displayed on the chart as error bars.
Disability prevalence increases with age…
48
Source: Family Resources Survey 2015/16, Department for Work & Pensions
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Percentage of people reporting a disability
by age group, 2015/16, UK
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
State Pension age
adults
Working-age adults Children All people
%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85 and over
%
Age (years)
Males
Females
…while the ability to self-care decreases with age…
Percentage of males and females who reported “I have no problems
washing or dressing myself”, England, 2017
Source: NHS England / Ipsos MORI, GP Patient Survey
The proportion of
adults able to provide
self care decreases
at older ages.
This is particularly
noticeable in females
aged 85 and over,
where 42% have at
least some problems
washing or dressing.
49
…with those on lower incomes more likely to need help
and less likely to receive it.
50
Overall, about a quarter of
people aged 65 and over
need help with daily activities.
Those on low incomes are
more likely to require help.
Although they are more likely
to receive it than those on
higher incomes there is a
bigger gap between the need
for help and help received for
those on lower incomes.
Source: Health and Social Care Funding explained, The Health Foundation
Gap in provision between receipt of and need for help with daily activities,
by income bracket among those aged 65 and over, 2014, England
Social care demand increases with age, but Local Authority provision of
adult social care has not increased as the older population has grown…
51
Change in Gross Current Expenditure on Adult Social Care by
Local Authorities, in cash and real terms, 2005-06 to 2016-17
Source: Adult social care activity and finance report, England 2016-17, NHS Digital
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Source: Personal Social Services: Staff of Social Services Departments,
England, 2017, NHS Digital. Contains public sector information licensed
under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Percentage change in Local Authority adult social services
jobs, by job role group from 2011 (baseline)
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16
£ billion
Cash Terms Real Terms
…but overall, the adult social care jobs market is increasing
Estimated number of adult social care jobs in England and percentage change on
previous year
52Source: The size and structure of the adult social care workforce in England, 2017, Skills for Care
The decline in local
authority adult social
care spending and
jobs, taken alongside
the increase in overall
adult social care jobs,
suggests an increase
in private provision of
formal social care.
There have been roughly the
same number of care home
beds in recent years, despite
an ageing population...
53
Over the period 2010 to 2017 the number of
nursing home beds increased, while the
number of residential home beds decreased,
leading to the same overall number of beds.
With an ageing population, this has resulted
in more older people per care home bed.
Over the same period there has been an
increase in the number of domiciliary (home)
care agencies.
Adult social care market trends, England, 2010-2017
Source: The state of adult social care services, Care Quality
Commission (CQC registration data, March 2017)
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open
Government Licence v3.0. Note: Arrows show movement since March 2015
…and the number of people
receiving publicly funded home care
has declined.
54
There has been a decrease in the number
of people receiving local authority / HSCT
funded domiciliary care.
This decreased by 20% in the UK as a
whole between 2009 and 2015 (with a
larger decrease of 24% in England).
This is highly pertinent to the care of older
people - most recipients of domiciliary care
are aged 65 or over.
UK weighted average of people using domiciliary
care services in 2015, by age
Total people receiving domiciliary care funded by a local
authority of Health and Social Care Trusts (HSCT)
across the UK in sample week, 2009-2015
Source: An Overview of the Domiciliary Care Market in the United Kingdom, 2016,
United Kingdom Homecare Association
Any decline in access to formal care increases the need for
informal care, most commonly provided by adult children…
55
Percentage of people receiving informal care
by age and gender, 2016/17, UK
Source: Family Resources Survey, Department for Work and Pensions
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open
Government Licence v3.0.
Family members who were main recipients of
informal care, 2016/17, UK
0
10
20
30
40
50
0-15 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
Males Females
Percentage of people
Source: Family Resources Survey, Department for Work and Pensions
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open
Government Licence v3.0.
…and these adult children may have
their own child caring responsibilities.
56
Average number of live-born children by age 30 and
completed family size, by year of birth of women,
England and Wales, 2016
Source: Childbearing for women born in different years, England and Wales:
2016, Office for National Statistics
As age at childbearing increases, adult children
may have their own child caring responsibilities
at the time that their parents also need care.
This results in a ‘sandwich generation’ who
provide care for both their own children, and
their parents, at the same time.
People are also having fewer children than in
the past, so there are fewer children who could
potentially provide care for their parents in
the future.
There are also other potential barriers to future
informal care provision, such as geographical
distance between family members, and women
working until later on in life.
Older people themselves are also often informal carers…
57
Source: Family Resources Survey, Department for Work and Pensions
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Percentage of people providing informal care
by age and gender, 2016/17, UK
Care is often provided
by an older person
for their spouse.
…who in turn may then be more likely
to require health services.
58
Source: Survey of Carers in Households 2009/10, The Health and Social Care Information
Centre. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Source: Full story: The gender gap in unpaid care provision: is there an impact
on health and economic position?, Office for National Statistics
Percentage of males and females with ‘Not Good’
general health: by extent of unpaid care provision
per week, England and Wales, 2011
The effect of caring upon carer’s health1,
England, 2009/10
Being an informal
carer is associated
with negative
health impacts.
Healthcare and social care are also linked by
transfers of patients between these services.
59
Source: Delayed Transfers of Care Statistics for England, 2017/18, NHS England
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Delayed Transfer of Care
(DTOC) occurs when a
patient is medically ready
to depart from their
current care setting but is
unable to do so because
of non-clinical reasons.
Delays where the patient
was awaiting a care
package in their own
home was the most
common reason for
DTOC in 2017/18.
Total number of delayed days by reason for delayed transfer of care, England, 2010-2011 to 2017-2018
Note: Grey lines represent
the other reasons for
delayed transfer of care
for comparison purposes
Population Ageing – Society
and the Individual
60
Older people are not a homogeneous group.
61Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics
Average personal well-being ratings: by age, 2012 to 2015, UK
Wellbeing is highest
around early retirement
age, before decreasing
with advanced age.
Many older people were born outside the UK.
62
UK residents not born in the UK, by age and country of birth, 2014 Around 8 percent of
UK residents aged
65 and over, were
not born in the UK
%
Source: UK population by country of birth and nationality grouping, by sex and age: 2014, Office for National Statistics
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
European Economic Area non-European Economic Area
0 - 4 5 - 14 15 - 44 45 - 64 65 - 74 75 - 84 85 +
Older people are more likely to live alone, particularly women.
Source: Families and Households, 2017, Office for National Statistics
and Annual mid-year population estimates 1996 to 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
% of age group
People living alone
UK, 1996-2016, females
16-24 25-44 45-64 65-74 75 and over
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
% of age group
People living alone
UK, 1996-2016, males
16-24 25-44 45-64 65-74 75 and over
63
This is because women live longer, and women tend to marry men
who are older than themselves. This results in more women than
men being widowed…
Source: Expectation of Life, Principal Projection, 2016-based, Office for National Statistics
Period life expectancy at age 65, by sex
England and Wales, 2004 to 2017
Proportion of adults over the age of 65,
marrying someone under the age of 65,
by sex, 2015 England and Wales
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Men Women
%
Source: Marriages data, Office for National Statistics 64
More than half of
men aged 65 and
over who married
in 2014 married
someone under
65, compared
to 1 in 5 women.
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
years
Men Women
…although widowhood is declining due to faster increases in life
expectancy for males than females.
Source: National Life Tables, Office for National Statistics
Life expectancy at birth for males and females,
UK, 1980-1982 to 2014-2016
Marital status* of adults aged 70 and over, 1986
and 2016, England & Wales
Source: Population estimates by Marital Status, Office for National Statistics
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
1980 to
1982
1984 to
1986
1988 to
1990
1992 to
1994
1996 to
1998
2000 to
2002
2004 to
2006
2008 to
2010
2012 to
2014
Females Malesyears
65
2016
1986
* Married status
includes civil
partnership
There is also an increase in marriage rates for those aged 70 and over
since 2009, while the divorce rate has remained relatively consistent…
Marriage rates for opposite-sex couples aged 70 and over,
by sex, England and Wales, 2005 to 2015
Source: Marriages in England and Wales, Office for National Statistics
Divorce rates for opposite-sex couples aged 70 and over,
by sex, England and Wales, 2005 to 2015
Source: Divorces in England and Wales, Office for National Statistics
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005
per 1,000 people
Males Females
66
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005
per 1,000 people
Males Females
…while nearly all marriages for those aged 70 and over are
re-marriages.
Source: Marriages in England and Wales, Office for National Statistics
Single Widowed Divorced
Proportion of marriages for people aged 70 and
over by previous marital status, 2015, UK
93% of people getting
married at ages 70 and over
are either divorced (50%) or
widowed (43%).
67
There are concerns over older people’s isolation
and access to services…
UK Bank, Building Society and Post Office
branch numbers
Source: House of Commons Library, Commons Briefing papers SN00385
Older people have
difficulty travelling to
services like banks and
post offices.
Physical branches are
increasingly closing, with
services moving online.
Source: ILC-UK and Age UK, Future of Transport in an Ageing Society, (ELSA data) 68
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Number of
branches
Banks (BBA figures) Banks (business Count data)
Building societies Post offices
…with older people more likely to be digitally excluded…
Proportion of adults who used the internet in the
last 3 months, by age group, 2011 to 2017, UK
Source: Internet users, 2017, UK. Annual population Survey, Office
for National Statistics
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
%
Use of the internet for social networking, by age
group, 2017, Great Britain
Source: Internet access - households and individuals: 2017,
Office for National Statistics
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
%
45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
More older people are becoming digitally literate. This change is reflective of new cohorts entering the
older age brackets who have used the internet in their working and social lives, and will continue to do so
in older age. However, given the pace of technological advances older people may still find it hard to keep
pace with changes.
69
…but more engaged in their communities.
Proportion of people who feel people in their local area
can be trusted, are willing to help their neighbours and
feel they belong to their local area by age, UK,
2014 to 2015
Source: Inequalities in Social Capital by Age and Sex, July 2015, Office for National Statistics. (Data from Understanding Society) 70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
16 to 24 25 to 49 50 to 64 65 to 74 75 & over
%
Feel people in their local area can be trusted
Feel people in their local area are willing to help their neighbours
Feel they belong to their local area
Regularly stop and talk with people in neighbourhood
Older people are more fearful of walking alone after dark. Also…
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75+
%
Proportion feeling very safe walking alone after dark, by age group,
year ending March 2015, England and Wales
Source: Crime Survey for England and Wales, Office for National Statistics
Reasons include uneven
pavements and fear of
falls, poor street lighting,
mobility limitations, and
fear of crime
71
…older people’s perception of the likelihood of being a victim of
crime is greater than the real prevalence of victimisation…
0
5
10
15
20
25
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
%
Say that it is likely or fairly likely they will be victim of a crime
Experienced crime in the previous 12 month period
Source: Crime Survey for England and Wales: Annual Trend and Demographic tables and Annual supplementary tables, Office for National Statistics
Proportion who have been victim of crime and their perception of likelihood of
being a victim, by age group, year ending March 2016, England and Wales
72
…with older people less likely to be victims of crime than the
population as a whole, for every type of crime.
Note: Burglary, vehicle related theft and criminal damage and arson refer to the age of the household reference person.
Source: Crime Survey for England and Wales, 2017, Office for National Statistics
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Fraud Vehicle
Related Theft
Criminal
Damage and
Arson
Domestic
Burglary
All Violence Theft from the
Person
Robbery
%
Type of Crime
Prevalence of crime by selected crime type and age group, 2017,
England and Wales
All Ages 65-74 75+
%
For some types of crime,
however, older people can be
targeted because of their
perceived vulnerability.
In particular, distraction
burglary, where an offender
gains entry to a house under
false pretenses in order to
commit theft.
And also some types of fraud,
particularly those where the
victim is tricked into transferring
money under false pretenses.
73
Globally
In partnership with international charities,
academic experts, UN agencies and National
Statistical Organisations we are leading the
UN City Group on Ageing and Age-
disaggregated statistics.
Over 30 countries have joined, committed to
improving the evidence on ageing
populations.
Directly relevant to measurement of the SDG
“Leave no one behind” theme.
Within the UK
A new ‘Centre for Ageing and Demography’,
to be led by ONS.
In partnership with other government
departments, academia and other
organisations we will:
• Identify the high priority policy questions.
• Fill evidence gaps.
Improving the Evidence

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Living Longer – How Our Population is Changing and Why it Matters

  • 1. Living Longer – How Our Population is Changing and Why it Matters 1
  • 2. • The Government Statistical Service’s purpose is to strengthen the evidence that the public and policy makers need for their decision making. • Better evidence is in the public good – this is a crucial time for the UK to respond to an ageing population. • The UK does not have a comprehensive and coherent evidence base. In partnership with the Devolved Administrations and others, ONS wants to change that. “Better Statistics, Better Decisions”
  • 4. 4 An additional 8.6 million UK residents are projected to be aged 65 and over by 2066 – almost the size of London today. Population pyramids, 1966, 2016 and 2066, (principal projection), UK Source: Population estimates, Principal population projections, 2016-based, Office for National Statistics
  • 5. The older population is growing faster than younger age groups. 5Source: Population estimates, Principal population projections, 2016-based, Office for National Statistics Population by age group, selected years UK 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1966 1991 2016 2041 2066 Millions under 16 16 to 64 65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
  • 6. 6 There is variation in the ageing population across local areas. Proportion of the population aged 65 and over, 2016 and 2039, UK Source: 2016 mid-year population estimates for UK, Office for National Statistics, 2014-based subnational population projections for UK, Office for National Statistics, Welsh Government, National Records Scotland and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Authority. Contains OS data © Crown copyright 2018.
  • 7. 7 Older people are more likely to live in rural areas than younger people… Source: Statistical Digest of Rural England, 2018, DEFRA Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Average age in rural & urban areas in England, 2002 to 2016 Percentage of population within age bands by rural-urban classification (LSOA) in England, 2016 Source: Statistical Digest of Rural England, 2018, DEFRA Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
  • 8. 8 …with urban areas ageing less quickly than rural areas. Percentage increase in population between 2016 and 2039 by rural-urban classification (LSOA), England Source: 2014-based subnational population projections for England and Rural Urban Classification (2011) of Lower Layer Super Output Areas in England and Wales, Office for National Statistics The population aged 65+ will grow by around 50% in both urban and in rural areas between 2016 and 2039. However, rural areas will see negligible growth in the population aged under 65, while it increases by 8% in urban areas. The effect of this is an increase in the ratio of older to younger people, particularly in rural areas. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Aged 0 to 64 Aged 65+ % Predominantly rural Urban with significant rural Predominantly urban
  • 9. Global population aged 60 years and over 9 We are not alone - the world’s population is also ageing… Source: Global AgeWatch Index 2015, HelpAge International (projected)
  • 10. 10 …including the rest of Europe. Source: World Population Prospects the 2017 revision, custom data acquired via website, UNDESA Population Division Percentage of population aged 65 years and over, EU countries, 2015 Percentage of population aged 65 years and over, EU countries, 2035 (projected) Percentage of population aged 85 years and over, EU countries, 2015 Percentage of population aged 85 years and over, EU countries, 2035 (projected)
  • 11. Declining mortality and fertility rates have caused population ageing. 11Source: World Population Prospects the 2017 revision, custom data acquired via website, UNDESA Population Division 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 Total Fertility Rate (children per woman) Global UK 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 Age Standardised* Mortality, Rate per 1,000 population Global UK *Standardised to 1950 global population age structure
  • 12. 12 Life expectancy has increased, and this is expected to continue at a slightly slower rate… Period and cohort life expectancy at birth, UK, males and females Source: Past and projected data from the period and cohort life tables, 2016-based, UK: 1981 to 2066, Office for National Statistics Percentage of people expected to survive to age 100 100 by year of birth, UK, males and females A higher proportion of people can expect to live to age100 – almost doubling in next 50 years 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1982 1992 2002 2012 2022 2032 2042 2052 2062 % Males Females 70 80 90 100 1982 1992 2002 2012 2022 2032 2042 2052 2062 Male period Female period Male cohort Female cohort years
  • 13. …but more deprived areas have lower life expectancy. 13 Life expectancy (period) at birth by index of multiple deprivation, England, 2014-16 Source: Health state life expectancies by national deprivation deciles, England and Wales: 2014 to 2016, Office for National Statistics Men born in the most deprived areas can expect to die 9.4 years before men born in the least deprived areas. For women the equivalent figure is 7.4 years. 70 75 80 85 90 Least deprived 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Most deprived years females males
  • 14. 14 Population Ageing – Policy Areas
  • 15. Ageing is a cross-cutting issue with implications for multiple policy areas. 15 e.g. • Older workers • Labour force structure • Job availability • Pensions • Tax • Financial decisions e.g. • Health requirements • Social care • Transport • Housing needs • End of life • Accessible cities e.g. • Digital inclusion • Wellbeing • Intergenerational issues • Crime • Communities Economy and finance Services and needs Society and the individual
  • 16. 16 Population Ageing – Implications for Economy and Finance
  • 17. 17 There will be increasingly more people of pension age for every person of working age. Source: Population estimates, State Pension age factors, Principal Population Projections, 2016-based, Office for National Statistics Old age dependency ratio, 1966 to 2066 (projected), UK 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036 2046 2056 2066 Number of people of State Pension Age per 1,000 of working age
  • 18. While a larger proportion of older men used to work in 1968 than today… 18Source: IFS Report R98, Retirement in the 21st Century, 2014, Daniel Chandler and Gemma Tetlow, © Institute for Fiscal Studies Employment rates of older men, UK, 1968-2013 Employment rates of older women, UK, 1968-2013
  • 19. …the number of older workers has risen since the beginning of the century… 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Nov- Jan 1998 Nov- Jan 2000 Nov- Jan 2002 Nov- Jan 2004 Nov- Jan 2006 Nov- Jan 2008 Nov- Jan 2010 Nov- Jan 2012 Nov- Jan 2014 Nov- Jan 2016 Nov- Jan 2018 Thousands Number of adults aged 65 and over in employment, 1998 to 2018 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Nov- Jan 1998 Nov- Jan 2000 Nov- Jan 2002 Nov- Jan 2004 Nov- Jan 2006 Nov- Jan 2008 Nov- Jan 2010 Nov- Jan 2012 Nov- Jan 2014 Nov- Jan 2016 Nov- Jan 2018 % Employment rates of adults aged 65 and over, 1998 to 2018 19Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics
  • 20. …the biggest increases in employment rates have been at older ages… 20Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics 0 20 40 60 80 100 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Employment at ages 50 to 64 and 65 & over, Men and Women, 1993 to 2018, UK Men 50-64 Women 50-64 Men 65 & over Women 65 & over % 17.5 percentage points 8.8 percentage points Employment rates doubled for ages 65+ between 1993 and 2018, and increased by almost a third for ages 50-64. Increases in employment rates at ages 50-64 are partly due to increased employment of women over time, as the gap in employment rates between men and women narrows, in line with increases in state pension age for women. Employment by age group, 1993 to 2018, UK 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 %
  • 21. 21 …with older workers more likely to be self-employed than younger workers and working because they are not ready to stop. Main reason for working beyond State Pension Age, 2015, UK Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Due to opportunities to work more flexible hours To boost pension pot To pay for desirable items (such as holidays) Employer needs your experience or you are needed in the family… Other reason To pay for essential items (such as bills) Not ready to stop work % Women Men Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 16 & over State Pension age & over Self-employed Employees Employee and self-employed split of those working past State Pension Age, 2014, UK Notes: 1. Based on a persons main job 2. State Pension age takes into account the incremental increases in female State Pension age since 2010 3. Dataset used is for April to June 2014 4. Does not include those in “other employment” 5. "Other employment" includes government employment & training programmes, and unpaid family workers
  • 22. Older people have higher income satisfaction and find it easier to get by financially than younger people. 22 1. Respondents are asked to rate how satisfied they are with their household income using ratings from "completely dissatisfied" to "completely satisfied". Responses for mostly and completely satisfied are included in the chart. 2. 95% confidence intervals are displayed on the chart as error bars. People who report finding it quite or very difficult to get by financially1,2: by age, 2015 to 2016, UK People who were mostly or completely satisfied with the income of their household1,2: by age,2015 to 2016, UK 1. Respondents are asked to rate how they were coping financially from "finding it very difficult" to "living comfortably". 2. 95% confidence intervals are displayed on the chart as error bars. Source: Measuring National Well-being: Domains and Measures (data from Understanding Society, the UK Household Longitudinal Study), Office for National Statistics 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 & over % 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 & over %
  • 23. Incomes for retired households are lower than for non-retired households… 23Source: Household disposable income and inequality in the UK: financial year ending 2017, Office for National Statistics Median equivalised disposable household income by household type, UK, financial year ending 2017 Note: Estimates have been adjusted to take account of inflation
  • 24. …and income inequality for retired households is also lower. 24 Average disposable incomes with and without private pensions, UK, 1977 to financial year ending 2016 Despite income being £10,000 higher for retired households with a private pension. Gini coefficients for disposable income by household type, UK, 1977 to financial year ending 2017 Lower Gini coefficient indicates more equality. Source: Household disposable income and inequality in the UK: financial year ending 2017, Office for National Statistics
  • 25. The next generation of retirees are more likely to have a personal pension because of auto-enrolment. 25 Auto-enrolment since October 2012 has boosted uptake of workplace pensions. This means pensions for future retirees are likely to be defined contribution. Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings pension tables, UK: 2017 provisional and 2016 revised results, Office for National Statistics Proportion of employees with workplace pensions by type of pension, UK, 1997 to 2017
  • 26. Pensions are the biggest welfare outgoing. 26Source: How is the welfare budget spent?, Office for National Statistics Welfare budget spending items, UK, 2016-17 Pensions £111bn 42% Incapacity, disability & injury benefits £44bn 16% Unemployment benefits £2bn 1% Housing benefits £25bn 10% Family benefits, Income support & tax credits £46bn 18% Personal social services and other benefits £35bn 13%
  • 27. As the population has aged, public expenditure on state pensions and health have gone up. 27 Source: Expenditure on health care (figure 17) and GDP, ONS **Figures refer to government healthcare expenditure only and exclude private spending. Seasonally adjusted GDP was used. Estimates from the “Expenditure on Healthcare in the UK” series are used here as the time series available stretches back to 1997. However, it should be noted that these estimates differ from the headline measure for healthcare expenditure as a percentage of GDP in the UK health accounts, which is produced to the latest internationally-standardised definitions. Source: Expenditure on state pension and GDP, ONS *State pension expenditure (also called social security benefits in cash) excluding other benefits Seasonally adjusted GDP was used. UK public spending on health as a percentage of GDP, UK, 1997-2016** UK public spending on state pensions as a percentage of GDP, UK, 1997-2016* Public spending on state pensions increased from 3.6% to 4.6% of GDP between 1997 and 2016 while public spending on health increased from 4.4% to 6.9% of GDP. 0 1 2 3 4 5 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % of GDP % of GDP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % of GDP % of GDP
  • 28. Tax revenues and government expenditure on welfare and public services are influenced by the population age structure. 28Source: OBR Fiscal sustainability report, January 2017Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Tax revenue predominantly comes from middle age groups. Spending on health, long- term care, and welfare (including pensions, disability benefits, and attendance allowance) is higher at older ages. Representative profiles for tax, public services, and welfare spending, UK, 2021-2022
  • 29. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 July 2006 to June 2008 July 2008 to June 2010 July 2010 to June 2012 July 2012 to June 2014 July 2014 to June 2016 Net Household Property Wealth (£) 30 to 32 60 to 62 Wealth increases with age until around age 65… 29 Median household wealth by age and wealth component by age of household reference person, Great Britain, July 2014 - June 2016 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 - 84 85 and over Property Wealth (net) Financial Wealth (net) Physical Wealth Private Pension Wealth (£) Median household net property wealth of those aged 30 to 32 years and aged 60 to 62 years based on the age of the household reference person, UK Source: Wealth and Assets Survey, Office for National Statistics Source: Economic Well-being, UK: October to December 2017, Office for National Statistics Over time, the wealth of younger people (in their early 30’s) has declined. Note: The Household Reference Person is defined as the sole householder in one person households, the person with the highest income in joint person households and in households where householders have the same income, the oldest is taken as the HRP
  • 30. …but younger generations have less wealth than those that came before them. 30Source: Resolution Foundation, The Generation of Wealth, 2017, C. D'Arcy & L. Gardiner (resolutionfoundation.org) Up until the late 50’s, adults on average do not accumulate as much wealth as those who were born five years before them had done by the same age. However, this trend is reversed for those aged 60 and over. Those aged 25 are worst affected, accumulating 84% less wealth than those aged 25, five years previously. Median family total net wealth per adult in 2012-14, as a proportion of the preceding cohort’s wealth in 2006-08, GB
  • 31. Future retirees may be less likely to own a home in retirement. 31 16 21 26 31 36 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 Years Average age of first time buyers England, 2003-04 to 2016-17 First time buyers by age, England, 1995-96, 2005-06 and 2015-16 Percentage of families (singles or couples) owning their own home, 1961 – 2017, by age group, UK Lower levels of home ownership and later age at first purchase in pre-retirees may result in more future retirees renting or paying off a mortgage into later life. Source: Resolution Foundation, Housing data (resolutionfoundation.org) Note: There is a change of data source in 1984, resulting in small inconsistencies. Prior to 1980, housing association renters are included in the private rented sector. Prior to 1984, full-time students in parents’ homes are included as single adults in parents’ homes. Source: English Housing Survey, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. The average age of first time buyers is increasing. This has largely been driven by decreases in the percentage of first time buyers aged 16-24. Younger generations (<65) have seen a decrease in home ownership rates in recent years, with bigger decreases at younger ages.
  • 32. Renting has become more common for all ages apart from the oldest… 32 1.1 2.7 7.5 18.8 49.0 71.0 69.4 13.3 48.7 59.6 55.3 30.0 6.5 2.5 27.5 17.5 17.2 16.5 14.0 18.3 22.9 58.1 31.0 15.6 9.4 7.0 4.2 5.2 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 & over own outright buying with mortgage all social renters all private renters Tenure by age of household reference person, England, 2008-09 3.4 3.5 7.5 19.0 45.4 71.9 74.6 6.8 34.7 48.7 47.8 26.5 6.3 2.8 25.5 15.7 17.4 18.4 16.5 15.4 17.6 64.3 46.1 26.4 14.8 11.6 6.4 5.1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 & over own outright buying with mortgage all social renters all private renters Tenure by age of household reference person, England, 2015-16 Source: English Housing Survey, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government,2015-16 Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. People aged 25 to 34 in England are now more likely to be ‘privately renting’ than ‘buying with a mortgage’.
  • 33. …and in early adulthood private renting has now overtaken owner occupation… 33 Source: English Housing Survey, 2016 to 2017, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Over the last decade, the proportion of households where the Household Reference Person (HRP) is aged 25 to 34 and 35 to 44 years old, which are owner- occupied, decreased by 34% and 27% respectively. Trends in tenure, households with a HRP aged 25-34 or 35-44, 2006-07 to 2016-17
  • 34. …as houses have become more expensive. 34 House prices have doubled relative to average earnings in the last 20 years. This is due to house prices increasing faster than earnings. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Ratio of median house price to median annual earnings, England and Wales, 1997 to 2017 Affordability ratio 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Median price paid for property and annual earnings indices England and Wales, 1997 to 2017 House Prices Earnings Index (1997 = 100) Source: Housing affordability in England and Wales: 2017, Office for National Statistics
  • 35. Trends in tenure, England, 1980 to 2016-17 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 percentage owner occupiers private renters social renters For those renting, private has become more common than social renting… 35 Source: English Housing Survey 2016-17, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Renting is the main option for people who do not own a home in retirement. The private rental sector is now larger than the social rented sector.
  • 36. …with increases in private renting across all income groups. Home ownership levels have declined and private renting has increased. For middle and higher income groups, this has mainly be driven by reductions in owner-occupiers. For low income groups, increases in private renting are associated with reductions in social renting. 36 Change in percentage of British population in each housing tenure, 1994-1996 to 2013-2015 Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies, The cost of housing for low-income renters, Robert Joyce, Matthew Mitchell, Agnes Norris Keiller, © Institute for Fiscal Studies
  • 37. Population Ageing – Services and Needs 37
  • 38. Older adults tend to live in more rural areas, where access to services is more difficult… 38 Source: Journey time statistics: access to services 2014, Department for Transport. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.Source: 2014 mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics Proportion of the population aged 65 and over, 2014 Average minimum travel time for 8 key local services (minutes), 2014 % 65+ Travel time (minutes)
  • 39. ..and where there is less public transport available, people could be more reliant on cars. 39 Source: Department for Transport, National Travel Survey Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Source: Department for Transport, National Travel Survey Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. There is less bus availability in smaller rural settlements in England and in these areas car ownership is much higher than in urban areas. Bus availability indicator by settlement type, in England, 2002 to 2012 Household car availability by settlement type, in England, 2014/15
  • 40. However, car use declines with age, as health deteriorates… 40 These factors can leave older people in rural areas isolated, particularly those who cannot afford to pay for taxis, or do not have family members/neighbours who can help with transport, - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 17-20 21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+ Percentage Age Full car driving license holders by age and gender, England, 2016 Source: Department for Transport, Driving licence holding and vehicle availability (NTS02) Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
  • 41. …and without access to a car, inadequate public transport makes it harder to access health services. 41 Proportion of older people who can travel to the hospital easily, by age group, 2008 to 2012, England Source: Future of Transport in an Ageing Society, (ELSA data), ILC-UK and Age UK Reasons for not using public transport given by those over 65, 2012-13, England
  • 42. Around half of remaining life is spent in poor health at age 65. 42 9.3 10.1 10.0 10.5 10.4 10.6 11.2 10.7 11.3 11.2 9.0 7.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 10.0 8.5 9.8 9.8 9.7 0 5 10 15 20 25 Males: Northern Ireland Males: Scotland Males: Wales Males: England Males: United Kingdom Females: Northern Ireland Females: Scotland Females: Wales Females: England Females: United Kingdom Years'In good health' 'Not in good health' Proportion of life spent ‘in good health’ 53.6 53.4 52.2 56.7 51.3 56.0 56.0 54.8 57.9 50.6 Source: Health state life expectancies, UK: 2014 to 2016, (Data from Annual Population Survey), Office for National Statistics Life expectancy and the proportion of life spent in good health at age 65 years, by sex, 2014 to 2016, UK and constituent countries There is regional variation in how long someone can expect to live at age 65, and how much of this will be in good health. A larger proportion of remaining life in good health does not automatically mean a higher life expectancy. Scotland is the country with the highest proportion in good health, but the lowest life expectancy at age 65.
  • 43. Those on lower incomes and in the poorest health find it most difficult to access health services. 43 Source: Future of Transport in an Ageing Society, (ELSA data), ILC-UK and Age UK Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Prevalence of multimorbidity by age and socioeconomic status, England, 2018 Ease of travelling to healthcare facilities among those 65 and over, England, 2012-13 On socioeconomic status scale, 1=most affluent and 5=most deprived Source: The epidemiology of multimorbidity in primary care: a retrospective cohort study. Cassell A, Edwards D, Harshfield A, Rhodes K, Brimicombe J, Payne R, Griffin S. British Journal of General Practice. 2018 Apr; 6(669): e245–e251.Copyright License (http://creativecommons.org/licences/by- nc/4.0/).
  • 44. Healthcare demand increases with age… 44 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Est. spend per person per year £s Age NHS General and acute care age-cost curve, 2013 to 2014, England Males Females Source: Trends in the number of English NHS hospital admissions, The Health Foundation Source: Technical Guide to Allocation Formulae and Pace of Change, 2016/17, NHS England. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Trends in number of NHS hospital admissions in England, 2006/07 to 2015/16
  • 45. …because the number of health conditions increase with age… 45 Having several health conditions increases the complexity of treatment. Some common health conditions associated with older age are: - Hearing impairment - Visual impairment - Heart disease - Dementia - Stroke - Rheumatoid arthritis - Diabetes - Cancer Number of grouped health conditions by age, 2016, England Source: Health Survey for England, 2016, NHS Digital Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45- 49 50- 54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Percentage Age group (years) 6 conditions 5 conditions 4 conditions 3 conditions 2 conditions 1 conditions 0 conditions
  • 46. ...particularly age-related health conditions such as dementia… 46 Diagnosed Dementia Prevalence (%) by age group, England, 2016 Source: House of Commons Library, Dementia: policy, services and statistics Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. The prevalence in this chart is likely to be underestimated, as it only shows diagnosed cases. Source: Dementia: applying All Our Health, Public Health England and Diagnosis in the UK, Alzheimers Research UK and Dementia Statistics Hub It is estimated that 850,000 people in the UK are living with dementia but only around two-thirds have been given a dementia diagnosis by their GP or memory service. £
  • 47. …while satisfaction with health decreases with age. 47 Source: Measuring National Well-being: Domains and Measures (data from Understanding Society, the UK Household Longitudinal Study), Office for National Statistics Percentage who were mostly or completely satisfied with their health1,2: by age, 2015 to 2016, UK 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 and over % 1. Respondents were asked to rate their health from "Completely dissatisfied" to "Completely satisfied". Responses for mostly and completely satisfied are included in the chart. 2. 95% confidence intervals are displayed on the chart as error bars.
  • 48. Disability prevalence increases with age… 48 Source: Family Resources Survey 2015/16, Department for Work & Pensions Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Percentage of people reporting a disability by age group, 2015/16, UK 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 State Pension age adults Working-age adults Children All people %
  • 49. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85 and over % Age (years) Males Females …while the ability to self-care decreases with age… Percentage of males and females who reported “I have no problems washing or dressing myself”, England, 2017 Source: NHS England / Ipsos MORI, GP Patient Survey The proportion of adults able to provide self care decreases at older ages. This is particularly noticeable in females aged 85 and over, where 42% have at least some problems washing or dressing. 49
  • 50. …with those on lower incomes more likely to need help and less likely to receive it. 50 Overall, about a quarter of people aged 65 and over need help with daily activities. Those on low incomes are more likely to require help. Although they are more likely to receive it than those on higher incomes there is a bigger gap between the need for help and help received for those on lower incomes. Source: Health and Social Care Funding explained, The Health Foundation Gap in provision between receipt of and need for help with daily activities, by income bracket among those aged 65 and over, 2014, England
  • 51. Social care demand increases with age, but Local Authority provision of adult social care has not increased as the older population has grown… 51 Change in Gross Current Expenditure on Adult Social Care by Local Authorities, in cash and real terms, 2005-06 to 2016-17 Source: Adult social care activity and finance report, England 2016-17, NHS Digital Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Source: Personal Social Services: Staff of Social Services Departments, England, 2017, NHS Digital. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Percentage change in Local Authority adult social services jobs, by job role group from 2011 (baseline) 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 £ billion Cash Terms Real Terms
  • 52. …but overall, the adult social care jobs market is increasing Estimated number of adult social care jobs in England and percentage change on previous year 52Source: The size and structure of the adult social care workforce in England, 2017, Skills for Care The decline in local authority adult social care spending and jobs, taken alongside the increase in overall adult social care jobs, suggests an increase in private provision of formal social care.
  • 53. There have been roughly the same number of care home beds in recent years, despite an ageing population... 53 Over the period 2010 to 2017 the number of nursing home beds increased, while the number of residential home beds decreased, leading to the same overall number of beds. With an ageing population, this has resulted in more older people per care home bed. Over the same period there has been an increase in the number of domiciliary (home) care agencies. Adult social care market trends, England, 2010-2017 Source: The state of adult social care services, Care Quality Commission (CQC registration data, March 2017) Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Note: Arrows show movement since March 2015
  • 54. …and the number of people receiving publicly funded home care has declined. 54 There has been a decrease in the number of people receiving local authority / HSCT funded domiciliary care. This decreased by 20% in the UK as a whole between 2009 and 2015 (with a larger decrease of 24% in England). This is highly pertinent to the care of older people - most recipients of domiciliary care are aged 65 or over. UK weighted average of people using domiciliary care services in 2015, by age Total people receiving domiciliary care funded by a local authority of Health and Social Care Trusts (HSCT) across the UK in sample week, 2009-2015 Source: An Overview of the Domiciliary Care Market in the United Kingdom, 2016, United Kingdom Homecare Association
  • 55. Any decline in access to formal care increases the need for informal care, most commonly provided by adult children… 55 Percentage of people receiving informal care by age and gender, 2016/17, UK Source: Family Resources Survey, Department for Work and Pensions Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Family members who were main recipients of informal care, 2016/17, UK 0 10 20 30 40 50 0-15 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Males Females Percentage of people Source: Family Resources Survey, Department for Work and Pensions Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
  • 56. …and these adult children may have their own child caring responsibilities. 56 Average number of live-born children by age 30 and completed family size, by year of birth of women, England and Wales, 2016 Source: Childbearing for women born in different years, England and Wales: 2016, Office for National Statistics As age at childbearing increases, adult children may have their own child caring responsibilities at the time that their parents also need care. This results in a ‘sandwich generation’ who provide care for both their own children, and their parents, at the same time. People are also having fewer children than in the past, so there are fewer children who could potentially provide care for their parents in the future. There are also other potential barriers to future informal care provision, such as geographical distance between family members, and women working until later on in life.
  • 57. Older people themselves are also often informal carers… 57 Source: Family Resources Survey, Department for Work and Pensions Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Percentage of people providing informal care by age and gender, 2016/17, UK Care is often provided by an older person for their spouse.
  • 58. …who in turn may then be more likely to require health services. 58 Source: Survey of Carers in Households 2009/10, The Health and Social Care Information Centre. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Source: Full story: The gender gap in unpaid care provision: is there an impact on health and economic position?, Office for National Statistics Percentage of males and females with ‘Not Good’ general health: by extent of unpaid care provision per week, England and Wales, 2011 The effect of caring upon carer’s health1, England, 2009/10 Being an informal carer is associated with negative health impacts.
  • 59. Healthcare and social care are also linked by transfers of patients between these services. 59 Source: Delayed Transfers of Care Statistics for England, 2017/18, NHS England Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Delayed Transfer of Care (DTOC) occurs when a patient is medically ready to depart from their current care setting but is unable to do so because of non-clinical reasons. Delays where the patient was awaiting a care package in their own home was the most common reason for DTOC in 2017/18. Total number of delayed days by reason for delayed transfer of care, England, 2010-2011 to 2017-2018 Note: Grey lines represent the other reasons for delayed transfer of care for comparison purposes
  • 60. Population Ageing – Society and the Individual 60
  • 61. Older people are not a homogeneous group. 61Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics Average personal well-being ratings: by age, 2012 to 2015, UK Wellbeing is highest around early retirement age, before decreasing with advanced age.
  • 62. Many older people were born outside the UK. 62 UK residents not born in the UK, by age and country of birth, 2014 Around 8 percent of UK residents aged 65 and over, were not born in the UK % Source: UK population by country of birth and nationality grouping, by sex and age: 2014, Office for National Statistics 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 European Economic Area non-European Economic Area 0 - 4 5 - 14 15 - 44 45 - 64 65 - 74 75 - 84 85 +
  • 63. Older people are more likely to live alone, particularly women. Source: Families and Households, 2017, Office for National Statistics and Annual mid-year population estimates 1996 to 2016 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 % of age group People living alone UK, 1996-2016, females 16-24 25-44 45-64 65-74 75 and over 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 % of age group People living alone UK, 1996-2016, males 16-24 25-44 45-64 65-74 75 and over 63
  • 64. This is because women live longer, and women tend to marry men who are older than themselves. This results in more women than men being widowed… Source: Expectation of Life, Principal Projection, 2016-based, Office for National Statistics Period life expectancy at age 65, by sex England and Wales, 2004 to 2017 Proportion of adults over the age of 65, marrying someone under the age of 65, by sex, 2015 England and Wales 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Men Women % Source: Marriages data, Office for National Statistics 64 More than half of men aged 65 and over who married in 2014 married someone under 65, compared to 1 in 5 women. 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 years Men Women
  • 65. …although widowhood is declining due to faster increases in life expectancy for males than females. Source: National Life Tables, Office for National Statistics Life expectancy at birth for males and females, UK, 1980-1982 to 2014-2016 Marital status* of adults aged 70 and over, 1986 and 2016, England & Wales Source: Population estimates by Marital Status, Office for National Statistics 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 1980 to 1982 1984 to 1986 1988 to 1990 1992 to 1994 1996 to 1998 2000 to 2002 2004 to 2006 2008 to 2010 2012 to 2014 Females Malesyears 65 2016 1986 * Married status includes civil partnership
  • 66. There is also an increase in marriage rates for those aged 70 and over since 2009, while the divorce rate has remained relatively consistent… Marriage rates for opposite-sex couples aged 70 and over, by sex, England and Wales, 2005 to 2015 Source: Marriages in England and Wales, Office for National Statistics Divorce rates for opposite-sex couples aged 70 and over, by sex, England and Wales, 2005 to 2015 Source: Divorces in England and Wales, Office for National Statistics 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005 per 1,000 people Males Females 66 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005 per 1,000 people Males Females
  • 67. …while nearly all marriages for those aged 70 and over are re-marriages. Source: Marriages in England and Wales, Office for National Statistics Single Widowed Divorced Proportion of marriages for people aged 70 and over by previous marital status, 2015, UK 93% of people getting married at ages 70 and over are either divorced (50%) or widowed (43%). 67
  • 68. There are concerns over older people’s isolation and access to services… UK Bank, Building Society and Post Office branch numbers Source: House of Commons Library, Commons Briefing papers SN00385 Older people have difficulty travelling to services like banks and post offices. Physical branches are increasingly closing, with services moving online. Source: ILC-UK and Age UK, Future of Transport in an Ageing Society, (ELSA data) 68 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 Number of branches Banks (BBA figures) Banks (business Count data) Building societies Post offices
  • 69. …with older people more likely to be digitally excluded… Proportion of adults who used the internet in the last 3 months, by age group, 2011 to 2017, UK Source: Internet users, 2017, UK. Annual population Survey, Office for National Statistics 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ % Use of the internet for social networking, by age group, 2017, Great Britain Source: Internet access - households and individuals: 2017, Office for National Statistics 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ More older people are becoming digitally literate. This change is reflective of new cohorts entering the older age brackets who have used the internet in their working and social lives, and will continue to do so in older age. However, given the pace of technological advances older people may still find it hard to keep pace with changes. 69
  • 70. …but more engaged in their communities. Proportion of people who feel people in their local area can be trusted, are willing to help their neighbours and feel they belong to their local area by age, UK, 2014 to 2015 Source: Inequalities in Social Capital by Age and Sex, July 2015, Office for National Statistics. (Data from Understanding Society) 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 16 to 24 25 to 49 50 to 64 65 to 74 75 & over % Feel people in their local area can be trusted Feel people in their local area are willing to help their neighbours Feel they belong to their local area Regularly stop and talk with people in neighbourhood
  • 71. Older people are more fearful of walking alone after dark. Also… - 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75+ % Proportion feeling very safe walking alone after dark, by age group, year ending March 2015, England and Wales Source: Crime Survey for England and Wales, Office for National Statistics Reasons include uneven pavements and fear of falls, poor street lighting, mobility limitations, and fear of crime 71
  • 72. …older people’s perception of the likelihood of being a victim of crime is greater than the real prevalence of victimisation… 0 5 10 15 20 25 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ % Say that it is likely or fairly likely they will be victim of a crime Experienced crime in the previous 12 month period Source: Crime Survey for England and Wales: Annual Trend and Demographic tables and Annual supplementary tables, Office for National Statistics Proportion who have been victim of crime and their perception of likelihood of being a victim, by age group, year ending March 2016, England and Wales 72
  • 73. …with older people less likely to be victims of crime than the population as a whole, for every type of crime. Note: Burglary, vehicle related theft and criminal damage and arson refer to the age of the household reference person. Source: Crime Survey for England and Wales, 2017, Office for National Statistics 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Fraud Vehicle Related Theft Criminal Damage and Arson Domestic Burglary All Violence Theft from the Person Robbery % Type of Crime Prevalence of crime by selected crime type and age group, 2017, England and Wales All Ages 65-74 75+ % For some types of crime, however, older people can be targeted because of their perceived vulnerability. In particular, distraction burglary, where an offender gains entry to a house under false pretenses in order to commit theft. And also some types of fraud, particularly those where the victim is tricked into transferring money under false pretenses. 73
  • 74. Globally In partnership with international charities, academic experts, UN agencies and National Statistical Organisations we are leading the UN City Group on Ageing and Age- disaggregated statistics. Over 30 countries have joined, committed to improving the evidence on ageing populations. Directly relevant to measurement of the SDG “Leave no one behind” theme. Within the UK A new ‘Centre for Ageing and Demography’, to be led by ONS. In partnership with other government departments, academia and other organisations we will: • Identify the high priority policy questions. • Fill evidence gaps. Improving the Evidence

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