Presentation slides from Prof Sir Ian Diamond (UK National Statistician) from the ILC-UK Future of Ageing Conference in London, UK, on Thursday 24 November 2022.
The following slides provide the background data and information that have informed the future trends identified under the health theme. This presentation should be viewed alongside those for the other themes in order for the wider picture to be understood.
This slide pack illustrates what we already know about the ageing population in the UK. It draws together the most robust data sources and analysis from the ONS, other government departments and organisations and academia. It explains the structure of the ageing population in detail and provides evidence on what an ageing population means for the economy, services and society.
The following slides provide the background data and information that have informed the future trends identified under the health theme. This presentation should be viewed alongside those for the other themes in order for the wider picture to be understood.
This slide pack illustrates what we already know about the ageing population in the UK. It draws together the most robust data sources and analysis from the ONS, other government departments and organisations and academia. It explains the structure of the ageing population in detail and provides evidence on what an ageing population means for the economy, services and society.
These slides were used to launch the Health Profile for England (and a separate Health Equity report). Health Profile for England brings together a range of data to tell a story about our health. Find out more: http://bit.ly/2ubZ1Uo
Are we ready to make the UK the best country to grow old in?
One year ago, the House of Lords Committee on Public Services and Demographic Change produced a hard-hitting report which argued that the Government and society was “woefully underprepared” for a rapidly ageing population.
On the first anniversary of the ‘Ready for Ageing?’ report, we are in the unenviable position that sees the United Kingdom ranked unlucky number 13 in a global index of the best countries in the world to grow old in. The principal recommendations in the ‘Ready for Ageing?’ report have not yet been properly addressed or acted on.
In his October 2013 speech on ‘The Forgotten Million’, Secretary of State for Health, Jeremy Hunt MP, set down a challenge that the UK should in fact aspire to be best country to grow old in, but the question remains: why are our public services so poorly prepared for major demographic change, and what as a society can we do to ensure future generations of older people thrive in later life?
Lord Filkin, Chair of the Committee on Public Services and Demographic Change, hosted a House of Lords breakfast debate looking forward to 2030, a date by which there will be 50% more people aged 65 and over in England and a doubling in the numbers of people aged 85 and over. As a society, we need to prepare for the next 15 years right now and certainly in the next Parliament.
At this event, Independent Age and ILC-UK, supported by members of the Ready for Ageing Alliance, launched 2030 Vision: Making the UK the best country to grow old in, which will look to the long term and consider what politicians and policy makers need to now, both in preparation for next year’s General Election, and between 2015 and 2020, to prepare for the long term opportunities and challenges ahead.
During the debate, we invited contributions on the economic and societal implications of population ageing and the major policy decisions all the main parties face to ready the UK and its public services for dramatic population ageing.
It’s clear that our political, social and cultural approach towards old age today is already hopelessly out of date, so this event will provide Parliamentarians and stakeholders from across civil society with an opportunity to mark the first anniversary of the House of Lords’ Committee report on demographic change and look ahead, so as a society we can seize the opportunities presented by an ageing population.
The following slides provide the background data and information that have informed the future trends identified under the population theme. This presentation should be viewed alongside those for the other themes in order for the wider picture to be understood.
SILS 2015 - Future Longevity and Population Health Improvements: An Economic ...Sherbrooke Innopole
By: Pierre-Carl Michaud, Industrial Alliance Research Chair on the Economics of Demographic Change
At Sherbrooke International Life Sciences Summit - 2nd edition | September 28/29/30 2015
www.sils-sherbrooke.com
The question of ageing-related changes in health care system expenditure in Poland was raised in the context of EU policy debate rather than in response to the internal discussions on the volume and structure of public health care expenditures. Due to the low level of public health care funding and dynamic institutional changes in the sector, the national policy making process is focused on the sources of health care system funding, the size of funding and the efficiency of funding allocation.
Authored by: Stanislawa Golinowska, Ewa Kocot, Agnieszka Sowa
Published in 2008
One year on the impact of COVID-19 on the lives of people approaching later lifeCentre for Ageing Better
In this set of slides, we present findings of our research on work, health, housing and communities, which look at the impact of COVID-19 on people aged 50-70.
This fourth edition of Health at a Glance: Europe presents key indicators of health and health systems in the 28 EU countries, 5 candidate countries to the EU and 3 EFTA countries. This 2016 edition contains two main new features: two thematic chapters analyse the links between population health and labour market outcomes, and the important challenge of strengthening primary care systems in European countries; and a new chapter on the resilience, efficiency and sustainability of health systems in Europe, in order to align the content of this publication more closely with the 2014 European Commission Communication on effective, accessible and resilient health systems. This publication is the result of a renewed collaboration between the OECD and the European Commission under the broader "State of Health in the EU" initiative, designed to support EU member states in their evidence-based policy making.
Delivered at the AC Comfort Lecture, Royal Society of Medicine on the 21 June by David Behan, Chief Executive, CQC.
The accompanying detailed lecture notes can be found at http://www.cqc.org.uk/content/ac-comfort-lecture-royal-society-medicine.
ILC Future of Ageing 2022 - David Sinclair.pptxILCUK1
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These slides were used to launch the Health Profile for England (and a separate Health Equity report). Health Profile for England brings together a range of data to tell a story about our health. Find out more: http://bit.ly/2ubZ1Uo
Are we ready to make the UK the best country to grow old in?
One year ago, the House of Lords Committee on Public Services and Demographic Change produced a hard-hitting report which argued that the Government and society was “woefully underprepared” for a rapidly ageing population.
On the first anniversary of the ‘Ready for Ageing?’ report, we are in the unenviable position that sees the United Kingdom ranked unlucky number 13 in a global index of the best countries in the world to grow old in. The principal recommendations in the ‘Ready for Ageing?’ report have not yet been properly addressed or acted on.
In his October 2013 speech on ‘The Forgotten Million’, Secretary of State for Health, Jeremy Hunt MP, set down a challenge that the UK should in fact aspire to be best country to grow old in, but the question remains: why are our public services so poorly prepared for major demographic change, and what as a society can we do to ensure future generations of older people thrive in later life?
Lord Filkin, Chair of the Committee on Public Services and Demographic Change, hosted a House of Lords breakfast debate looking forward to 2030, a date by which there will be 50% more people aged 65 and over in England and a doubling in the numbers of people aged 85 and over. As a society, we need to prepare for the next 15 years right now and certainly in the next Parliament.
At this event, Independent Age and ILC-UK, supported by members of the Ready for Ageing Alliance, launched 2030 Vision: Making the UK the best country to grow old in, which will look to the long term and consider what politicians and policy makers need to now, both in preparation for next year’s General Election, and between 2015 and 2020, to prepare for the long term opportunities and challenges ahead.
During the debate, we invited contributions on the economic and societal implications of population ageing and the major policy decisions all the main parties face to ready the UK and its public services for dramatic population ageing.
It’s clear that our political, social and cultural approach towards old age today is already hopelessly out of date, so this event will provide Parliamentarians and stakeholders from across civil society with an opportunity to mark the first anniversary of the House of Lords’ Committee report on demographic change and look ahead, so as a society we can seize the opportunities presented by an ageing population.
The following slides provide the background data and information that have informed the future trends identified under the population theme. This presentation should be viewed alongside those for the other themes in order for the wider picture to be understood.
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www.sils-sherbrooke.com
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3. Successful Census
Start of engagement on the
transformation journey – the future of
population and social statistics in
England & Wales
2021
Census statistics and analysis published 2022-23
Ongoing engagement and preparation for
consultation.
2022
Wider consultation
Report on progress and National Statistician’s
recommended next steps
2023
Ongoing transformation
To deliver proposals
within 2023
recommendation
2024
Transformed
system
Engagement
Sources: Office for National Statistics – Census release plans, Population and migration statistics system transformation
OFFICIAL
Our vision: More frequent, timely and inclusive statistics about the population and its characteristics
4. OFFICIAL
Population by age and sex
UK, Mid-1951
Source: Office for National Statistics – UK population estimates, 1838 to 2020 , Demography and migration data, England and Wales; Northern Ireland Statistics and Research
Agency (NISRA) - Census 2021 main statistics demography tables – age and sex; National Records of Scotland - Mid-Year Population Estimates
Since 1951, our population has been increasing in age within the UK, with people living longer and
moving out of the working age population
Notes:
1 font size 11
Population by age and sex
UK, Mid-2011
Population by age and sex
UK, Census Day March 2021
5. Population aged 65 and over
England and Wales, March 2021
Population aged 85 and over
England and Wales, March 2021
Whilst our population is ageing, there is an unequal distribution of individuals over 65 and 85 in
England and Wales, with coastal areas being particularly dense in ageing populations
Source: Office for National Statistics – Census Maps, ONS
OFFICIAL
6. OFFICIAL
Percentage aged 65 and over living alone by age and sex
2001, 2011, and 2020, UK
Sources: Office for National Statistics – calculations based on Population estimates by marital status and living arrangements, England and Wales and UK population estimates, 1838 to 2020
The percentage of individuals in the UK aged 65 and over living on their own has remained fairly
consistent since 2001 but women are more likely than men to live alone
Women aged 65 and over are more
likely to live on their own (44.3%)
than men (28.4%) in 2020
Men aged 65 and over are more
likely to live in couples (70.8%)
than women (50.3%) in 2020
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
2001 2011 2020
Persons Males Females
8. OFFICIAL
Health in England as an overall figure measured by the Health Index declined slightly from 2019 to
2020, when compared with 2019 (-0.4pp). However, at 100.1 it remained a little above 2015 levels
2015 2020
Source: Office for National Statistics – The Health Index for England
Worse = 2015 level Better
Healthy People
Decline by 4.2 points
Healthy Lives
Decline by 0.2 points
Healthy Places
Increase by 3.7 points
From 2019 to 2020:
The Health Index provides a single value for health in
England and local authorities each year that can be broken
down into different areas of health. This shows changes over
time or differences between areas.
Health Index for England
Index score (England = 100 in 2015)
9. Change in healthy life expectancy by sex and age
UK, between 2011 to 2013 and 2018 and 2020 • In 2018-20 healthy life expectancy at age 65
was 11.2 years for women; 10.4 years for men
• Healthy life expectancy at age 65 for women
had grown by 8.6 months since 2011-13; for
men the growth was 4.8 months
• These increases exceeded life expectancy,
causing the proportion of life spent healthy to
increase to 53.6% for women and 56.0% for
men
• In contrast, healthy life expectancy at birth was
1.2 years shorter in 2018-20 compared with
2011-13
Improvements in healthy life expectancy at middle and older ages were occurring at a time when life
expectancy was growing more slowly, stalling or even reducing in some of the very oldest age groups.
This improved the proportion of life expectancy spent healthy in middle and older age groups.
Source: Office for National Statistics – Health state life expectancies, UK
OFFICIAL
10. OFFICIAL
Between 2014 to 2016 and 2018 to 2020, disability-free life expectancy in the UK decreased among
those aged 35 to 39 years and under. However, for those aged 55 to 59 years and over, there were
small improvements for both sexes, although these were not statistically significant
Disability-free life expectancy
(DFLE) at birth decreased
more for females (-1.4 years)
than for males.
Change in disability-free life expectancy at birth
by sex, between 2014 to 2016 and 2018 to 2020, UK
Source: Office for National Statistics – Health state life expectancies, UK
11. OFFICIAL
Personal wellbeing tend to be higher in older age groups with the exception of people aged 90 years
and older who tend to score lower on personal wellbeing scores
Average (mean) ratings of personal well-being for age-groups
Quarter 2 2022, UK
Source: Office for National Statistics – Personal well-being in the UK, quarterly
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
16 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 to 89 90 and
over
Mean
score
(1
to
10)
Age groups
Life Satisfaction Worthwhile Happiness
13. OFFICIAL
UK economic inactivity by age, people aged 16 to 64 years
seasonally adjusted, cumulative change from Jul 2019 to Sept 2020, for each period up to Jul to Sept 2022
Source: Office for National Statistics – Labour Force Survey
Rising inactivity has been driven mainly by over 50s as this age group was responsible for over 55%
of the increase in economic inactivity since the pandemic.
14. OFFICIAL
Of all OLS* respondents (aged 50 to 65 years), 58% would consider returning to work. For those
individuals, the most important factors when choosing a paid job were flexible working hours (32%)
and good pay (23%).
Amongst all respondents who have left or lost their job
and not returned, 18% said they were currently on an
NHS waiting list for medical treatment.
Reasons for leaving paid work by age group
OLS Wave 2, Great Britain, 10 to 29 August 2022
Source: Office for National Statistics – Over 50s Lifestyle Study (OLS) wave 2
*The Over 50s Lifestyle Study (OLS) was newly designed
to gather more information from adults aged 50 and over
Target cohort: Those 50-65 years old who had left their job
since the start of the pandemic and not returned to work
Reasons for leaving their job?
Intention to return to the workforce?
Factors which could influence their return?
1 Wave 1: February 2022 2 Wave 2: August 2022
15. OFFICIAL
Cumulative change in number of people inactive owing to long-term sickness
aged 16-64 years, seasonally adjusted, UK, Jan/Mar 2017 to Jun/Aug 2022
Source: Office for National Statistics - Labour Force Survey
Change in economic inactivity owing to long-term sickness
by age group, UK, 2019 to 2022
Source: Office for National Statistics - Labour Force Survey
From 2017 to 2022, the number of economically inactive people due to long-term sickness rose from
2.0 to 2.5 million. This was largely due to an increase of 183,366 in the age group 50 to 64 years
(+16%) which makes up the majority of inactive individuals due to long-term sickness (1,3 million)
16. OFFICIAL
Percentage change in economic inactivity owing to long-term sickness
by age group and most common primary condition, UK, 2019 to 2022
Source: Office for National Statistics - Labour Force Survey
The reasons for long-term sickness vary between age groups, amongst 50-64 year olds “other” health
problems and problems connected with the back or neck showed the largest increases. Those two
conditions are now the most common reasons for long-term sickness in this age group.
18. OFFICIAL
Official weekly estimate using modelled daily percentage of the population testing positive for COVID-19
nose and throat swabs by age group, England
Older age groups remained less likely to test positive until Spring 2022 and became most likely to test
positive in Autumn 2022
Source: Office for National Statistics - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey
19. OFFICIAL
Age was the characteristic most associated with the risk of death involving coronavirus (COVID-19) in
triple vaccinated individuals during the Omicron period
The risk of death was over 30 times greater
in those aged 80 years, compared with
those aged 50 years.
Risk Factors for Death From COVID-19 After Receiving a Booster
Adults who had received 3 COVID-19 vaccinations at least 14 days ago on 31
December 2021
Source: Office for National Statistics – Chart: Evaluation of Risk Factors for Postbooster Omicron COVID-19 Deaths in England; Text: ONS publication
20. The percentage of individuals aged 60+
in England receiving vaccinations are
as follows:
• At least one vaccination: 96.4%
• Two vaccinations: 95.8%
• Three vaccinations: 92.7%
Source: Office for National Statistics – Coronavirus and vaccination rates in people aged 18 years and over by socio-demographic characteristic and region, England
Percentage of those aged 60+ who were unvaccinated by deprivation quintile
England, 31 July 2022
The large majority of over 60s have engaged with the vaccination programme in England. However,
adults who score higher on the English Index of Multiple Deprivation were less likely to be vaccinated
(Least deprived)
(Most deprived)
OFFICIAL
21. Of 2.1 million people with self-reported
long COVID at 1 October 2022, 1 million
(50%) were aged 50+ years
Prevalence exhibits an inverse U-shaped
relationship with age, tailing off in older
age groups
Source: Office for National Statistics – Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK by age group and sex: four week period ending 1 October 2022
Age- and sex-specific prevalence of self-reported Long COVID ≥4 weeks after confirmed or
suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection among people aged 2+ years in private households
UK, four weeks to 1 October 2022
Long COVID-19 prevalence is highest in people aged 50-69 years old (6.2% of female population,
4.9% of males)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2 to 11 12 to 16 17 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 80+
%
Age group
Male Female
OFFICIAL