This report, containing new research by Professor Les Mayhew reveals that the life expectancy gap between the richest and poorest has begun to increase. The research reveals that the richest 5% of men are living an average of 96.2 years, which is 34.2 years longer than the poorest 10% of men. The gap is 1.7 years wider than in 1993. There are likely to be significant unintended consequences of further increases to State Pension Age in 2028. Increasing State Pension Age up to levels where disability rates are higher, raises concerns about transferring spending from the State Pension to disability or other working age benefits. Increasing the State Pension Age further might also impact on the supply of carers. And will employers be prepared for further increases in the State Pension Age? Public policy is beginning to recognise the challenges ahead. The DWP Select Committee are currently conducting an Inquiry into “early drawing of the state pension”. Labour have proposed a flexible state pension age so manual workers can retire earlier than other workers. Are there other, potentially more radical solutions to the inequalities challenge?

1. Adult inequalities
in lifespan
~including some
implications for state
pension age
Les Mayhew
Cass Business School
lesmayhew@googlemail.com

2. What we did
• Analysed data for England and Wales back to 1870 and
also comparable data from France and Italy
• Compared adult life expectancy at age 30 for both men
and women to the present
• Measured differences in lifespan between the longest
lived 5% of the population and the shortest lived 10%
• Compared our findings with past current and future state
pension age to see how many would be disadvantaged
by the changes
• Considered whether published plans for future rises in
pension age go far enough

3. Key questions
• Life expectancy is increasing but what about
inequalities in lifespan?
• Are there differences between men and women?
• How do we compare with other countries over
similar time period?
• Are rich and poor equally disadvantaged?
• What percentage of the population reach state
pension age?
• What are the implications for future state
pension age?

4. 25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Lifeexpectancyatage30/Inequalitygap.
Male life expectancy at 30
Female life expectancy at 30
Male inequality gap
Female inequality gap
BA
Changes in adult lifespan from age 30
1870-2010
Men
Women
•Until 1950 as life
expectancy has
increased inequalities
have reduced
•Women live longer than
men but the gap is
closing after reaching a
max of 5.6 years in
1970
•Inequalities in lifespans
of both men and women
have been similar but
this pattern changed
after 1990 as male
inequalities widened

5. Male gap since 1990s….
Male gap
widening
Since levelling our post-1950 the male gap began to widen after 1990.
It seems to be a combination of a few men living to very old ages but
also men at the bottom of the distribution failing to keep up

6. 0 0
age(x)
numberofsurvivors(lx)
A B
DC
x1 x2 x2
'
O
(a)
0 0
age(x)
numberofsurvivors(lx)
x1
'
x2 x2
'
x1
A B
C D
E
(b)
O
0 0
age(x)
numberofsurvivors(lx)
A B E
C
x1 x1
' x2
O
(c)
There are three kinds of
adult ageing:
1. Ageing from the ‘top’ only (divergent
case~ greater inequality)
2. Ageing from the ‘middle’ and from the
‘top’ (parallel case ~constant inequality)
3. Ageing from the ‘middle’ only
(convergent case – narrowing inequality)

7. From convergence to divergence~
~survival versus life expectancy
•Between 1870 and 1950
inequalities reduced (ageing
from the ‘middle’)
•After pooling pre-1940 data
and projecting the trend we
find a theoretical max life
expectancy of 107 years!
•From 1950 there was
ageing from both ‘middle’
and ‘top’ (parallel case)
•For men in E&W after 1990
inequalities re-widened due
to ageing from the ‘top’
(divergent case)•Data points show the age attained by different percentiles
of the population
•pq is the lifespan gap between longest surviving 5% and
shortest surviving 10%

8. From convergence to divergence~
~survival versus life expectancy
•Hatched line shows present
state pension age for men
which is being raised to 67
in 2028
•Chart shows that around
15% of adult males in E&W
aged 30 do not reach
current state pension age
•Widening inequalities may
cause this to worsen but
ameliorated as long as there
are general rises in life
expectancy
•Data points show the age attained by different percentiles
of the population
•pq is the lifespan gap between longest surviving 5% and
shortest surviving 10%

9. % of adult deaths by age
~men
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115
Age
%ofallmaledeathsage20+
2010
1960
State Retirement Age
•Modal age of death
has increased from 75
in 1960 to 85 in 2010
(W: 80 and 88).
•Men 2010: 13.4%
dead before age 65, a
further 19.3% by 75
•Women 2010: 8.7%
dead before age 65
and further 13.7%
before age 75
For a man dying at modal age 85 he receives
20 years of state pension (SPA 65). For women
it is 28 years (SPA 60)

10. State pension age at 67
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1940 1960 1980 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
%ofUKmalepopulationreachingage67
% of men age 20 dying before age 67
% of men age 20 reaching age 67
Despite planned rise in
SPA to 67 in 2028 a
greater proportion of
men should still reach
this age as long as
overall life expectancy
stays on trend. For
women the position is
even better.
But is 67 going to be
high enough?
% of UK male population reaching higher SPA of 67 (above the line)

11. Case (a): Freezing expenditure
2014/15 spend
~£87billion
Spending on pensions in 2014/15 is £87bn our baseline with average
M&F SPA of 63 years. If spending is frozen what would pension age
be in future years to meet this fiscal constraint?
We considered two
methods of
determining what
future pension age
should be

12. Case (a): Freezing expenditure
Current
spend
~£87billion
In 2030 spending would be £120bn without changes to pension
age. If pension expenditure is frozen then SPA would need to be
68.5 by 2030
We considered two
methods of
determining what
future pension age
should be

13. Case (b): Maintaining constant ratio
of working age adults to pensioners
The dependency ratio is the ratio between adults of working age to people of
pension age. In 2010 there were 3.5 workers aged 20+ for people aged 65+ (i.e.
the average of males and female SPA).
To keep the ratio
constant in future
years SPA would
need to be 66 in
2020 67 in 2026
and 68 in 2030.

14. Case (b): Maintaining constant ratio
of working age adults to pensioners
The dependency ratio is the ratio between adults of working age to people of
pension age. In 2010 there were 3.5 workers aged 20+ for people aged 65+ (i.e.
the average of males and female SPA).
To keep the ratio
constant in future
years SPA would
need to be 66 in
2020 67 in 2026
and 68 in 2030.
By 2030 SPA
would 68
years

15. Issues arising
Although more will reach higher pensions ages due to higher life
expectancy, there are several concerns which could entrench
inequalities
•Rich versus poor
– Relationship between mortality and poverty
•Active pension years spent in good health
– (HLE needs to keep pace with or exceed gains in LE)
•Long-term unemployed
– Especially older workers
•Economically inactive
– Long term sick and disabled
•Bereaved partners
- e.g. A recently bereaved woman aged 60