SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 22 April 2024.

ONS Economic Forum
Chair – Grant Fitzner
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #39911
Chief Economist
Office for National Statistics

Agenda
09:30am – 09:35am Welcome and introduction – Grant Fitzner, Chief Economist, Office for National Statistics
09:35am – 09:50am State of the UK economy – Mike Keoghan, Director General for Economic, Social and
Environmental Group, Office for National Statistics
09:50am – 10:00am Geographical mobility of young people across English towns and cities – Martin Joyce,
Assistant Economist, Office for National Statistics and Richard Prothero, Head of the
ONS Centre for Subnational Analysis, Office for National Statistics
10:00am – 10:10am Recent trends in UK trade volumes and balances – Kathryn Keane, Economist, Office
for National Statistics
10:10am – 10:25am Questions and answers
10:25am – 10:30am Closing remarks – Grant Fitzner, Chief Economist, Office for National Statistics

State of the UK Economy
April 2024
Mike Keoghan
Director General for Economic, Social and
Environmental Group

GDP growth remains broadly flat
Source: Office for National Statistics, GDP quarterly estimate, Quarterly National
Accounts
Source: ONS GDP output approach Low-level Aggregates
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023
GDP Growth in Current Prices and Volume Measures, 2021 Q1 -
2023 Q4
GDP (Current Prices) GDP (Volume)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008
Q1
2010
Q1
2012
Q1
2014
Q1
2016
Q1
2018
Q1
2020
Q1
2022
Q1
Output contraction at Section level,
2008 Q1 – 2023 Q4
Per
cent

Monthly output rose slightly and the outlook is positive
-0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
United States
Germany
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
Canada
Real GDP Growth and Projections, %, 2023-2025
2023 2024 (Projection) 2025 (Projection)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2024
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Jun
2021
Sep
2021
Dec
2021
Mar
2022
Jun
2022
Sep
2022
Dec
2022
Mar
2023
Jun
2023
Sep
2023
Dec
2023
Monthly GDP Growth, Jun 2021 - Feb 2024
Source: Office for National Statistics, Monthly GDP Estimate

Business confidence is positive and improving
Source: ONS BICS
Source: British Chambers of Commerce, Quarterly Economic Survey
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000
Q1
2002
Q4
2005
Q3
2008
Q2
2011
Q1
2013
Q4
2016
Q3
2019
Q2
2022
Q1
Firm Expectations of Increase in Turnover and Prices, 2000 Q1
- 2024 Q1
Services Prices Manufacturing Prices
Manufacturing Turnover Services Turnover
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr
2022
Jul
2022
Oct
2022
Jan
2023
Apr
2023
Jul
2023
Oct
2023
Jan
2024
Apr
2024
Expectations of growing turnover, April 2022 - April 2024
All businesses All size bands excluding 0 - 9

Households are saving more than pre-pandemic
Source: Bank of England, Bankstats tables
Source: ONS UK Economic Accounts
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2019 Q1 2019 Q4 2020 Q3 2021 Q2 2022 Q1 2022 Q4 2023 Q3
Households' Savings Ratio, Per Cent, 2019 Q1 - 2023
Q4
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
-
5
10
15
20
25
Mar
2022
May
2022
Jul
2022
Sep
2022
Nov
2022
Jan
2023
Mar
2023
May
2023
Jul
2023
Sep
2023
Nov
2023
Jan
2024
£ Billion
Seasonally Adjusted Net Flow of Households' Deposits, Mar 2022 -
Feb 2024
Notes and coin Non interest-bearing deposits
Interest-bearing sight deposits Interest-bearing time deposits
Cash ISA Total Deposits

Inflation falls but most items still have price growth
above 2%
Source: ONS Consumer Price Inflation
Source: Office for National Statistics, Bureau of Labour Statistics
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Mar
2014
Feb
2015
Jan
2016
Dec
2016
Nov
2017
Oct
2018
Sep
2019
Aug
2020
Jul
2021
Jun
2022
May
2023
Headline and Core CPI, UK & USA, Year on Year, March 2014
- March 2024
UK Headline CPI UK Core CPI
USA Headline CPI USA Core CPI
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Mar
2014
Jan
2015
Nov
2015
Sep
2016
Jul
2017
May
2018
Mar
2019
Jan
2020
Nov
2020
Sep
2021
Jul
2022
May
2023
Mar
2024
Percentage of 85 CPI Items above 2% and 5%, March 2014 - March
2024
> 2% > 5%

Wage growth rises in real terms, but is expected to
fall in nominal terms as inflation eases
Source: Bank of England, Monthly Decision Maker Panel
Source: ONS Average weekly earnings (AWE) data
4.5%
4.7%
4.9%
5.1%
5.3%
5.5%
5.7%
5.9%
6.1%
6.3%
6.5%
May
2022
Jul
2022
Sep
2022
Nov
2022
Jan
2023
Mar
2023
May
2023
Jul
2023
Sep
2023
Nov
2023
Jan
2024
Mar
2024
Expected wage growth over the next year (%)
Single month 3 month average
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Jan-Mar
2001
Jan-Mar
2004
Jan-Mar
2007
Jan-Mar
2010
Jan-Mar
2013
Jan-Mar
2016
Jan-Mar
2019
Jan-Mar
2022
Average weekly earnings annual growth rates in Great
Britain, seasonally adjusted, January to March 2001 -
December 2023 to February 2024
Regular pay (nominal) Regular pay (real)

Oil prices have risen as global disruption continues
Source: U.K. ICE Futures Europe Source: ONS Business Insights and Conditions Survey
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Apr
2023
May
2023
Jun
2023
Jul
2023
Aug
2023
Sep
2023
Oct
2023
Nov
2023
Dec
2023
Jan
2024
Feb
2024
Mar
2024
$ per barrel
Brent crude oil futures, daily
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24
Percentage of businesses experiencing global supply chain
disruption citing "Conflict in the Middle East" as the main
reason

Conclusions
• GDP growth remains flat, but is expected to pick up this
year and next
• Business confidence is positive and households are
saving more
• Inflation continues to ease and real wage growth rises
• Some businesses are reporting impacts of global trade
disruption, specifically conflict in the Middle East

Geographical mobility of
young people across
English towns and cities
Martin Joyce
Richard Prothero

Background
• Previously available data showed how many graduates live in a place, but it does not tell
us whether they grew up in those places or whether they have moved there after obtaining their
qualifications. This work intends to address that gap in the data and help better
understand places' ability to produce, retain or attract young people with advanced qualifications.
• We have used the DfE's Longitudinal Educational Outcomes dataset to follow pupils that sat
their GCSEs between 2008 and 2011 and were living in England at the time and determine their
education attainment and where they were living in 2018/19 (aged 24 to 27).
• This work is the third publication resulting from an ONS-HMT collaboration project exploring the link
between education attainment and outcomes and geographical mobility of young people.

Graduate and highly-qualified non-graduate share of cohort, by area type
How many
16-years old from a place
went on to obtain a
graduate level qualification
or advanced non-graduate
qualification?

The share of pupils
obtaining a graduate
level qualification
tends to be higher in
lower deprivation towns
Graduate and highly-qualified non-graduate share of town
and city’s cohort by income deprivation

Graduates from small
towns and rural areas are
more likely to move than
those from large towns or
cities
Cohort’s share of graduates and highly-qualified non-graduates that
moved elsewhere by 2018/19

Graduates from towns
located in major
conurbation travel-to-
work areas are less
likely to move
Cohort’s share of graduates and highly-qualified non-graduates that
moved elsewhere by 2018/19

Where do mobile graduates and highly-qualified non-graduates
move to?
Origins and destinations of mobile graduates
Origins and destinations of mobile highly-qualified non-
graduates

Which towns and cities
attract more graduates and
highly qualified non-
graduates, as a share of the
initial cohort?
Graduate and highly qualified non-graduate inward-
migration rates for all English towns and cities

Exploring what it all means
for individual towns and
cities in England
Cohort share of graduates who moved by cohort share of graduates
who did not move
Tool to explore the data for towns and cities
Skegness
Radlett
Richmond
Kingston-
Upon-Hull

Conclusions
• Places with a high share of graduates in 2018-19 had either produced and
retained graduates from their GCSE cohort or attracted a high number of
graduates from elsewhere
• The number of young people obtaining a graduate level qualification can vary
greatly across towns and cities in England (between 9% and 70%), and it is
strongly linked to levels of deprivation
• The size of towns where people in our cohort sat their GCSEs and its relative
location are factors related with the likelihood of moving somewhere else
• The number of towns and cities that attract many graduates from other places is
relatively small. These comprise either cities (such as Manchester, Leeds and
Newcastle), towns near cities (such as Horsforth, Hatfield, and West Bridgford) or
prosperous market or university towns (such as Bath, Canterbury, and Oxford)

Economist
Recent trends in UK
trade volumes and
balances
Kathryn Keane

Background
• UK trade data has been volatile in recent years following
several large economic shocks and methods changes
• Longer term view shows how trade has evolved since
the Global Financial Crisis
• Inflation has underpinned recent trade values so we also
consider real terms movements
• Look within data at goods and services, EU and rest of
the world and commodity types

Source: ONS Quarterly National Accounts and Trade data
Inflation has underpinned rising values in recent years, with volumes
growth more muted
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010
Q1
2011
Q3
2013
Q1
2014
Q3
2016
Q1
2017
Q3
2019
Q1
2020
Q3
2022
Q1
2023
Q3
UK exports Q1 2010 = 100
Goods excluding precious metals, CP
Services, CP
Goods excluding precious metals, CVM
Services, CVM
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010
Q1
2011
Q3
2013
Q1
2014
Q3
2016
Q1
2017
Q3
2019
Q1
2020
Q3
2022
Q1
2023
Q3
UK imports Q1 2010 = 100
Goods excluding precious metals, CP
Services, CP
Goods excluding precious metals, CVM
Services, CVM

Source: ONS Trade data
Growth in services has outpaced goods for both imports and exports
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Annual percentage change in export volumes, seasonally
adjusted, UK, 2010 to 2023
Goods excluding precious metals exports Services exports
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Annual percentage change in import volumes, seasonally adjusted,
UK, 2010 to 2023
Goods excluding precious metals imports Services imports

Goods export growth has been higher to non-EU countries but EU
imports have remained strong
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2010
Q1
2011
Q3
2013
Q1
2014
Q3
2016
Q1
2017
Q3
2019
Q1
2020
Q3
2022
Q1
2023
Q3
UK goods excluding precious metals exports index, EU and
non-EU, chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, Q1
2010 to Q4 2023, Q1 2010 = 100
EU Non-EU
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2010
Q1
2011
Q3
2013
Q1
2014
Q3
2016
Q1
2017
Q3
2019
Q1
2020
Q3
2022
Q1
2023
Q3
UK goods excluding precious metals imports index, EU and
non-EU, chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, Q1
2010 to Q4 2023, Q1 2010 = 100
EU Non-EU

Source: ONS Quarterly National Accounts
Both exports and imports of services have diverged
since the pandemic
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2010
Q1
2011
Q3
2013
Q1
2014
Q3
2016
Q1
2017
Q3
2019
Q1
2020
Q3
2022
Q1
2023
Q3
UK services exports index, EU, and non-EU, chained volume
measures, seasonally adjusted, Q1 2010 to Q4 2023, Q1 2010
= 100
EU Non-EU
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2010
Q1
2011
Q3
2013
Q1
2014
Q3
2016
Q1
2017
Q3
2019
Q1
2020
Q3
2022
Q1
2023
Q3
UK services imports index, EU and non-EU, chained volume
measures, seasonally adjusted, Q1 2010 to Q4 2023, Q1 2010 =
100
EU Non-EU

The UK has a trade deficit with the EU and a trade surplus
with the rest of the world
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2010 Q1 2011 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2016 Q1 2017 Q3 2019 Q1 2020 Q3 2022 Q1 2023 Q3
Trade balances by destination as a percentage of GDP, chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, UK, Q1 2010 to
Q4 2023
EU excluding precious metals Non-EU excluding precious metals Total world excluding precious metals

The UK has a trade deficit for goods and surplus for services
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2010
Q1
2011
Q3
2013
Q1
2014
Q3
2016
Q1
2017
Q3
2019
Q1
2020
Q3
2022
Q1
2023
Q3
UK trade balances with EU countries, chained volume
measures, seasonally adjusted, UK, Q1 2010 to Q4 2023, £bn
Trade in services balance
Trade in goods excluding precious metals balance
Total excluding precious metals balance
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2010
Q1
2011
Q3
2013
Q1
2014
Q3
2016
Q1
2017
Q3
2019
Q1
2020
Q3
2022
Q1
2023
Q3
UK trade balances with non-EU countries, chained volume
measures, seasonally adjusted, Q1 2010 to Q4 2023, £bn
Trade in services balance
Trade in goods excluding precious metals balance
Total excluding precious metals balance

-3.5% -2.5% -1.5% -0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5%
Fuels
Animal & vegetable oils & fats
Chemicals
Crude materials
Miscellaneous manufactures
Material manufactures
Total, excluding precious metals
Beverages & tobacco
Food & live animals
Machinery & transport equipment
Compound annual growth rate by commodity type,
chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, UK, Q1
2010 to Q4 2023
Imports Exports
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Compound annual growth rate of goods exports by commodity,
chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, UK, Q1 2010 to
Q4 2023
EU Non-EU
Goods export growth has varied considerably by commodity

Most service types have higher exports in 2023 than in 2010
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Compound annual growth rate of services exports by service type,
chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, UK, Q1 2010 to Q4
2023
EU Non-EU
-4.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 12.0%
Government Services, n.i.e
Financial Services
Transport
Personal, Cultural and Recreational…
Travel
Intellectual Property Services
Insurance and Pension Services
Total
Manufacturing and Maintenance…
Other Business Services
Telecoms, Computer and…
Construction Services
Compound annual growth rate by service type, chained volume
measures, seasonally adjusted, UK, Q1 2010 to Q4 2023
Imports Exports

Conclusions
 Trade has been volatile over recent years following a
range of overlapping economic and trade shocks
 UK export growth has become increasingly dominated by services since 2010
 Most goods commodities have seen falls in exports but rises in imports since
2010; in contrast, most service types have seen an increase in both exports
and imports
 Most goods commodities have seen falling exports to EU countries and
increased exports to non-EU countries
 Most service types have seen higher exports to both the EU and non-EU
 The UK has consistently reported a trade deficit overall with EU countries and
trade surpluses with non-EU countries

Closing remarks
Grant Fitzner
@ONSfocus #ONSEconForum
Chief Economist
slido #39911

Forthcoming ONS economic analysis
23 April 2024 Public sector finances, UK: March 2024
24 April 2024 Regional economic activity by gross domestic product, UK : 1998 to 2022
24 April 2024 Ship traffic through global critical maritime passages: January 2023 to April 2024
25 April 2024 Who has been affected by changing housing costs across England and Wales?
26 April 2024 Public service productivity, quarterly, UK: October to December 2023
29 April 2024 The effects of the economy on Public Sector Net Debt
29 April 2024 The impact of new business enterprise research and development survey data on business investment, UK: 2022
30 April 2024 Research and development expenditure by the UK government: 2022
30 April 2024 UK government debt and deficit: December 2023
2 May 2024 Business demography, quarterly, UK: January to March 2024
7 May 2024 Time use in the UK: March 2024
7 May 2024 UK environmental taxes: 2023
8 May 2024 Non-financial business economy, regional (Annual Business Survey): 2022 results
9 May 2024 Measuring Progress, Well-being and Beyond GDP in the UK: May 2024
10 May 2024 GDP Theme Day
All information on upcoming analysis can be found via the ONS website

Upcoming ONS events
• Tuesday, 23 April 2024 – ONS Local presents: An update on Housing Affordability and Short-term Lets
• Wednesday, 1 May 2024 – ONS Local presents: Urban Analytics at the Turing Institute
• Thursday, 9 May 2024 – ONS Local presents: Clustering similar local authorities in the UK
• Monday 13 May 2024 – ONS Economic Forum
We will be showcasing the latest economic and social developments including a wide range of analytic
topics. Each month we will feature ‘State of the Economy,' providing a stocktake of the latest trends and
developments. Registration to open shortly.
• Tuesday, 14 May 2024 – ONS Local presents: Measuring the Green Economy
Further details at: ons.gov.uk/economicevents
or https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/o/the-office-for-national-statistics-33407052803

ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement
Wednesday 15 May 2024 — Friday 17 May 2024
Alliance Manchester Business School
Booth St W, Manchester, M15 6PB
Join us for discussions on recent research advances in economic measurement and statistics
Registration for the ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement 2024 is now open.
The deadline to register is Tuesday 30 April 2024
For further information and to register to attend the conference please visi:
https://www.escoe.ac.uk/events/escoe-conference-on-economic-measurement-2024-registration-open/

Producer Price Inflation (PPI) Survey
We are reviewing our Producer Price Inflation (PPI) statistics with the aim of refining our publications
to better meet the needs of users of these statistics.
On Wednesday 20 March we launched a survey that is open until 22 May 2024. We invite you to
take part as your input is key to the outcomes of the review. PPI statistics measure change in prices
of goods bought and sold by manufacturers, including imports and exports, and the prices of
services provided to UK customers for a selection of industries.
You can access the survey at: https://consultations.ons.gov.uk/external-affairs/user-needs-from-
producer-price-inflation

Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)
Consultation
In October 2023, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) launched a consultation seeking users’
views on the UK’s adoption of industrial classification of economic activity.
The ONS have now published a response to the findings of the consultation, which closed in
January. It provides a summary of the feedback they received and a guide on timeframes for their
next steps. You can read the response via the ONS’s consultation and engagement platform. If you
have further questions about the consultation or the response, please contact
sic.consultation@ons.gov.uk.

Thank you for attending the
Economic Forum
You can keep up to date on all upcoming events via
ons.gov.uk/economicevents
If you would like to ask a question or provide any feedback, please do so
via economic.engagement@ons.gov.uk

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