The Welsh Government's Future Trends Report 2017 outlines projected population changes, indicating an overall increase in Wales' population by about 4% over the next 20 years, driven mainly by growth among those aged 65 and above. Migration is expected to be the primary factor for population growth, with international migration contributing significantly more than natural change. The report also highlights uneven population distribution across Wales, with some areas projected to decline while others grow substantially.

1. Welsh Government Future
Trends Report 2017– Population
Theme data slides
The following slides provide background data
and graphs used for the Population theme in
the Future Trends Report 2017

2. 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Africa
Southern Asia
India
China
Europe
U28
South America
USA
Russia
Global population is projected to continue to increase.
Large population increases are projected for Africa and India (and Southern
Asia generally). China is projected to increase until 2030 but then to fall.
1950 205020001975 2025
Source: OECD and UN
population (millions)

3. 0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
2015 210020572036 2078
Russia
Germany
Spain
Italy
UK
France
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs
The UK is projected, under recent trends, to become the largest country
in Europe other than Russia over the next half century

4. The population of Wales is also projected to continue to grow, by
around 4% over the next twenty years
Wales: population projections
Source: StatsWales
3.11 million
3.21 million
3.25 million
2,950
3,000
3,050
3,100
3,150
3,200
3,250
3,300
2016 2026 2036
Thousands

5. estimated and projected population of Wales,
mid-1981 to mid-2039 (millions)
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS)
1983 20391991 1999 2007 2015 2023 2031
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3
2.9
2.8
2.7
Growth is expected under a number of different scenarios, although not
inevitable and depends on trends in fertility and migration
high fertility, high life expectancy, high migration
high fertility, low life expectancy, high migration
high migration
high fertility
high life expectancy
principal projection
low life expectancy
low fertility
low migration
low fertility, high life expectancy, low migration
low fertility, low life expectancy, low migration
principal projection

6. The growth in population is primarily driven by increases in those aged
65 or above
Wales: population projections
Source: StatsWales
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
index: 2016 = 100
all ages
0-15
65+
16-64
all ages
0-15
65+
16-64

7. 570,000
567,000
570,000
567,000
570,000
567,000
With the numbers aged 65 or above set to be 37 per cent higher
by 2041 and working age population falling
Source: StatsWales
866,869
778,319
642,945
1,839,994
1,888,877
1,924,544
548,965
562,116
558,731
0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000
2041
2029
2017
0-15
16-64
65+

8. Isle of Anglesey Neath Port Talbot
Gwynedd Bridgend
Conwy Vale of Glamorgan
Denbighshire Cardiff
Flintshire Rhondda Cynon Taf
Wrexham Merthyr Tydfil
Powys Caerphilly
Ceredigion Blaenau Gwent
Pembrokeshire Torfaen
Carmarthenshire Monmouthshire
Swansea Newport
Isle of Anglesey Neath Port Talbot
Gwynedd Bridgend
Conwy Vale of Glamorgan
Denbighshire Cardiff
Flintshire Rhondda Cynon Taf
Wrexham Merthyr Tydfil
Powys Caerphilly
Ceredigion Blaenau Gwent
Pembrokeshire Torfaen
Carmarthenshire Monmouthshire
Swansea Newport
projected population change for local authorities in Wales (2014 to 2039)
Population growth will not be uniform across Wales with some areas
projected to see a decline, and others increasing significantly

9. … Gwynedd, Wrexham, Ceredigion, Swansea, Bridgend, Cardiff,
Rhondda Cynon Taf, and Newport
are projected to increase steadily between 2014 and 2039.
… the Isle of Anglesey, Blaenau Gwent, and Powys
are projected to decrease steadily between 2014 and 2039.
… Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Carmarthenshire, Neath Port Talbot,
the Vale of Glamorgan, Caerphilly, and Monmouthshire
are projected to increase then decrease,
but to remain higher in 2039 than in 2014.
… Pembrokeshire, Torfaen, and Merthyr Tydfil
are projected to increase then decrease,
but to finish lower in 2039 than in 2014.
The populations of …

10. The population of older people is expected to see a large relative
increase, with the number of people in Wales aged 80 and over projected
to increase by over a quarter over the next 10 years, and by over 80 per
cent over the next 25 years.
Wales: population projections for people aged 80 and over
Source: StatsWales
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
age 80+

11. People aged 90 and over in Wales
F/M=2.8
5,211
16,086
21,297
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Mid-year 2008
Persons Female Male
8,985
8,746
8,285
7,971
7,481
20,779
20,855
20,777
20,854
20,323
29,764
29,601
29,062
28,825
27,804
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Mid-year 2017
Mid-year 2016
Mid-year 2015
Mid-year 2014
Mid-year 2013
Persons Female Male
F/M= 2.7
F/M= 2.6
F/M= 2.3
F/M= 2.4
F/M= 2.5
Female/Male=3.1

12. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
dependency ratio
65+
0-15
1991 20392007 2023
As a consequence the adult to older person dependency ratio will
increase sharply over time, although more stable for children
children and older people in Wales as proportions of working
age people
Source: StatsWales

13. Components of Population Change
Source: StatsWales
Over the longer period migration is projected to be the biggest driver in
population growth.
In the medium term (10 years) natural change (that is, births minus deaths)
is projected to account for around 3% of population growth in Wales,
international migration 67%, and UK migration 29%.
International migration-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2016 to 2017 2021 to 2022 2026 to 2027 2031 to 2032 2036 to 2037
international migration UK migration
natural change (births - deaths) overall population change

14. average annual net migration flows for Wales with England
by age group, mid-2016 to mid-2017
Source: internal migration estimates, ONS
The picture of migration to England is mixed with Wales a net
gainer for most age groups. In total all regions are net gainers from
England.
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
North Wales Mid Wales South West
Wales
South East
Wales
0 to 15
16 to 24
25 to 44
45 to 64
65+

15. Life expectancy is projected to continue to increase, but there are big
uncertainties about how far this will continue
Source: ONS
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/pa
standprojecteddatafromtheperiodandcohortlifetables/previousReleases
https://www.
ons.gov.uk/pe
oplepopulatio
nandcommun
ity/birthsdeat
hsandmarriag
es/lifeexpecta
ncies/bulletin
s/pastandproj
ecteddatafro
mtheperiodan
dcohortlifetab
les/previousR
eleases

16. But “healthy life expectancy” is important and may impact the nature of
future pressures and health service use.
Overall, people can expect to spend just over three quarters of their life
in good health; at age 65, people can expect to spend just over half
their remaining life in good health.
Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy, Wales, 2013-15
Healthy Life
expectancy Life expectancy
% of life in
good health
Males at birth 61.5 78.4 78.4
Females at birth 62.7 82.3 76.2
Males at age 65 9.8 18.1 54.0
Females at age 65 10.7 20.5 52.3
Source: Office for National Statistics
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectanc
ies/bulletins/healthstatelifeexpectanciesuk/2013to2015

17. So although the number of people aged 75 and over is projected to
increase sharply, the number of deaths is far more stable.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Source: ONS projections
people 75+
deaths
index: 2015 = 100
2015 20392023 2031
Wales: projections for deaths and people aged 75 and over

18. Source: StatsWales
indexed population and household growth in Wales, 2016-2039
Demographic change will also influence housing demand, particularly
when combined with changes in household composition.
In Wales the number of households is projected (2014-based) to grow
faster than the population between 2016 and 2039.
96.0
98.0
100.0
102.0
104.0
106.0
108.0
110.0
112.0
114.0
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
households
population
index: 2016 = 100

19. For more information on the Welsh Government Future
Trends Report 2017, please visit the following address:
http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/future-trends/
Background data slides are also available on the website
for the other Themes of the Future Trends Report: Health;
Economy & Infrastructure; Climate Change; Land Use &
Infrastructure; and Society & Culture.