ONS Economic Forum 19 February 2024.

1. ONS Economic Forum
Chair – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury
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Deputy Director
Economic and Microdata Insights
Office for National Statistics

2. Agenda
09:30am – 09:35am Welcome and introduction – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury, Deputy Director, Economic and
Microdata Insights, Office for National Statistics
09:35am – 09:50am State of the UK economy – Kathryn Keane, Economist, Office for National Statistics
09:50am – 10:00am Labour Force Survey and Labour Market update – Tom Evans, Assistant Deputy
Director, Economic and Microdata Insights Office for National Statistics
10:00am – 10:10am International comparisons of inflation – Stefan Ubovic, Head of Prices Economic
Analysis, Office for National Statistics
10:10am – 10:25am Questions and answers
10:25am – 10:30am Closing remarks – Sumit Dey-Chowdhury, Deputy Director, Economic and Microdata
Insights, Office for National Statistics
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3. State of the UK Economy
February 2024
Kathryn Keane
Economist
Office for National Statistics
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4. The UK entered a mild technical recession in
the second half of 2023
Source: ONS – Quarterly National Accounts Source: ONS – Quarterly National Accounts
Contributions to real GDP growth by expenditure component, latest quarter on
previous quarter
Real GVA growth by sector and quarter over 2023 H2, 2023 Q3 - 2023 Q4
-1.6 pp
-1.2 pp
-0.8 pp
-0.4 pp
0.0 pp
0.4 pp
0.8 pp
Agriculture Production Constuction Services Total GVA
2023 Q4
2023 Q3
2023 H2
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4
Net trade Investment
Government Consumption
GDP growth
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5. Living standards have been squeezed for the last 2
years
Source: ONS – Volume GDP
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Quarters After The Pre-Recession Peak
1973 Q2 1979 Q4 1990 Q2 2008 Q1 2023 Q2
UK Volume GDP, 1973; 1979; 1990; 2008 and 2023 episode
Pre-Recession Quarter = 100
Source: ONS – Volume GDP per head
Quarterly change in GDP average per head
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4
%
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6. Base effects contributed to unchanged CPI this
month, as prices fell on the month
Source: ONS – Consumer price inflation
Source: ONS – Consumer price inflation
CPI and Core CPI annual growth rates
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan
2019
Jul
2019
Jan
2020
Jul
2020
Jan
2021
Jul
2021
Jan
2022
Jul
2022
Jan
2023
Jul
2023
Jan
2024
CPI
Core CPI
Monthly change in annual CPI inflation
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2021 2022 2023 2024
Current month Base effect
% points
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7. Core inflation is falling globally while pay has risen
more than prices
Source: ONS – Consumer price inflation, Average weekly earnings,
PAYE RTI monthly pay
Source: IMF– World Economic Outlook Update, January 2024
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Nov-17 Aug-18 May-19 Feb-20 Nov-20 Aug-21 May-22 Feb-23 Nov-23
Global
Advanced Economies
Emerging Market & Developing
Economies
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2019 Q4 2020 Q2 2020 Q4 2021 Q2 2021 Q4 2022 Q2 2022 Q4 2023 Q2 2023 Q4
Regular private sector pay
Median pay (3 month average to end of quarter)
CPI
Quarterly price and wage levels, Q4 2019 - Q4 2023
Core Inflation, month on month, Annualised
Q4 2019 = 100
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8. Employment growth is slowing and worker
shortages are easing
Source: ONS – PAYE real time information Source: ONS – Business Insights and Conditions Survey
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Jan-19 Sep-19 May-20 Jan-21 Sep-21 May-22 Jan-23 Sep-23
Annual growth in payrolled employees Businesses currently experiencing a shortage of workers, early 2023 vs early 2024
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Manufacturing
Construction
Wholesale & retail trade; repair of…
Transportation & storage
Accommodation & food service
Information & communication
Real estate
Professional, scientific & technical
Administrative & support services
Education
Human health & social work
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Other service activities
All
28 December 2022 to 8 January 2023 22 January 2024 to 4 February 2024
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9. Pay growth remains high but there are signs of
pressures beginning to ease
Source: Bank of England, February 2024 MPR
-40 -20 0 20 40 60
Change in minimum wage rates
Consumer price inflation (current)
Market/industry pay changes
Ability to recruit and retain staff
Union activity
Consumer price inflation (expected)
Change in productivity
Change in non-pay rewards
Ability to pass on cost increases to…
Change in profitability
Economic uncertainty
Net balance of respondents (per cent)
2024 survey
2023 survey
3, 6, 9 and 12 month growth rates in nominal regular pay
Source: ONS, UK Labour Market February 2024
Factors Affecting Pay Settlements
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
Whole Economy Private Sector Public Sector
Annual 9m 6m 3m
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10. Supply chain pressures remain low and confidence is
up
Source: S&P/CIPS Purchasing Managers Indices
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Standard
Deviations
from Mean
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan
2022
Mar
2022
May
2022
Jul
2022
Sep
2022
Nov
2022
Jan
2023
Mar
2023
May
2023
Jul
2023
Sep
2023
Nov
2023
Output/Activity Manufacturing
Output/Activity Services
Output/Activity Whole Economy
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Purchasing Managers Index for the UK
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11. Concluding remarks
• Early estimates show the UK entered a technical recession at
the end of last year, while living standards fell in 2023
• CPI shows some easing of pressures but private sector pay and
core inflation remain elevated
• Labour market tightness may be starting to ease
• There are some reasons to be optimistic with supply chain
pressures remaining low and confidence up
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12. Assistant Deputy Director
Macroeconomic Insights
Office for National Statistics
Labour Force Survey
and Labour Market
update
Tom Evans
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13. LFS Weighting – Then (,Pandemic) and Now
Then
• Reweight every other year
• Use the latest UK subnational
population projections
• Carried out over a period of
several months
• Reweight back to the period
where population estimates
are unchanged
Pandemic
• Challenges in both running a
household survey and
measuring population change
• Increase in perceived bias in
responses
• Three adjustments made to
the weighting approach during
2020 and 2021
Now
• Reverting back to use of
population projections
• Retaining, but updating some
of our pandemic adjustments
• Improves representativeness
– does not address volatility
Constraints
Limited time means we have prioritised fully reweighting the last 15 months of data. Time-series
maintained for headline levels and rates by age and sex, but discontinuities elsewhere
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14. Source: Labour Force Survey
Reweighting increases the size of the population…
53,400
53,600
53,800
54,000
54,200
54,400
54,600
54,800
55,000
55,200
Old Weights Reweighted Data
Population used in the weighting of the LFS, UK (aged 16 years and
over), between July to September 2022 and October to December 2023
-0.4 p.p.
-0.3 p.p.
-0.2 p.p.
-0.1 p.p.
0.0 p.p.
0.1 p.p.
0.2 p.p.
0.3 p.p.
Aged 16-17 Aged 18-24 Aged 25-34 Aged 35-49 Aged 50-64
Percentage point change in the share of the LFS population (16-64)
between reweighted and pre-reweighted data, by age group, UK,
September to November 2023

15. Source: Labour Force Survey
…and also the number of people in each main status
32,000
32,200
32,400
32,600
32,800
33,000
33,200
33,400
33,600
Jul-Sep
2022
Aug-Oct
2022
Sep-Nov
2022
Oct-Dec
2022
Nov-Jan
2023
Dec-Feb
2023
Jan-Mar
2023
Feb-Apr
2023
Mar-May
2023
Apr-Jun
2023
May-Jul
2023
Jun-Aug
2023
Jul-Sep
2023
Aug-Oct
2023
Sep-Nov
2023
Oct-Dec
2023
Employed
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Jul-Sep
2022
Aug-Oct
2022
Sep-Nov
2022
Oct-Dec
2022
Nov-Jan
2023
Dec-Feb
2023
Jan-Mar
2023
Feb-Apr
2023
Mar-May
2023
Apr-Jun
2023
May-Jul
2023
Jun-Aug
2023
Jul-Sep
2023
Aug-Oct
2023
Sep-Nov
2023
Oct-Dec
2023
Unemployed
8,100
8,300
8,500
8,700
8,900
9,100
9,300
9,500
9,700
Jul-Sep
2022
Aug-Oct
2022
Sep-Nov
2022
Oct-Dec
2022
Nov-Jan
2023
Dec-Feb
2023
Jan-Mar
2023
Feb-Apr
2023
Mar-May
2023
Apr-Jun
2023
May-Jul
2023
Jun-Aug
2023
Jul-Sep
2023
Aug-Oct
2023
Sep-Nov
2023
Oct-Dec
2023
Economically inactive
Number of people employed (aged 16 years and over), unemployed (aged 16 years and over) and economically inactive (aged 16 to 64), UK, seasonally adjusted,
July to September 2022 and October to December 2023

16. Source: Labour Force Survey
Impacts on rates vary due to compositional changes
Rates of employment (aged 16 to 64), unemployment (aged 16 years and over) and economic inactivity (aged 16 to 64), UK, seasonally adjusted, between
July to September 2022 and September to November 2023
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
Jul-Sep
2022
Aug-Oct
2022
Sep-Nov
2022
Oct-Dec
2022
Nov-Jan
2023
Dec-Feb
2023
Jan-Mar
2023
Feb-Apr
2023
Mar-May
2023
Apr-Jun
2023
May-Jul
2023
Jun-Aug
2023
Jul-Sep
2023
Aug-Oct
2023
Sep-Nov
2023
Oct-Dec
2023
Employment
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jul-Sep
2022
Aug-Oct
2022
Sep-Nov
2022
Oct-Dec
2022
Nov-Jan
2023
Dec-Feb
2023
Jan-Mar
2023
Feb-Apr
2023
Mar-May
2023
Apr-Jun
2023
May-Jul
2023
Jun-Aug
2023
Jul-Sep
2023
Aug-Oct
2023
Sep-Nov
2023
Oct-Dec
2023
Unemployment
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Jul-Sep
2022
Aug-Oct
2022
Sep-Nov
2022
Oct-Dec
2022
Nov-Jan
2023
Dec-Feb
2023
Jan-Mar
2023
Feb-Apr
2023
Mar-May
2023
Apr-Jun
2023
May-Jul
2023
Jun-Aug
2023
Jul-Sep
2023
Aug-Oct
2023
Sep-Nov
2023
Oct-Dec
2023
Economic Inactivity
% % %

17. Source: Labour Force Survey, Vacancy
Survey, Workforce Jobs
The Labour Market continues to look tight, but has softened
in recent months
Vacancies, Unemployment and the ratio of Unemployment to vacancies, UK Beveridge Curve, UK
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Reweighted Old weights
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
Vacancies
per
100
Employee
Jobs
Unemployment Rate
2001-2008
2008-2012
2012-2020
2020-Latest
Old weights

18. Source: Labour Force Survey, Workforce Jobs,
HMRC PAYE RTI
Looking forward, still improvements to feed through to the LFS
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Mar-May
2019
Jun-Aug
2019
Sep-Nov
2019
Dec-Feb
2020
Mar-May
2020
Jun-Aug
2020
Sep-Nov
2020
Dec-Feb
2021
Mar-May
2021
Jun-Aug
2021
Sep-Nov
2021
Dec-Feb
2022
Mar-May
2022
Jun-Aug
2022
Sep-Nov
2022
Dec-Feb
2023
Mar-May
2023
Jun-Aug
2023
Sep-Nov
2023
+/-
Employment rate Unemployment rate Inactivity rate
Headline rate sampling variability, seasonally adjusted, UK, March to May
2019 to October to December 2023
So far: Returned to face-to-face interviewing; increased incentives; increased response chasing
To come: From January 2024, reintroduction of a boost to the sample; Later this year, TLFS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 Total
Wave specific response rates to the LFS, GB, April to June 2013 to
October to December 2023
%

19. Summary
• LFS has been reweighted back to July-September 2022, with a scaling
factor applied to headline levels and rates back to 2011
• Reweighting makes our estimates more representative and has led to
upward revisions to economic inactivity and downward revisions to
employment
• The overall picture for the labour market remains tight, but has softened
somewhat over the last year
• Volatility remains a challenge for the LFS, with further improvements in train
to help address this
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20. Head of Prices Economic Analysis
Office for National Statistics
International
Comparisons of Inflation
Stefan Ubovic
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21. UK inflation more than halved in 2023, narrowing the
gap with the G7 but core inflation remains firm
Source: OECD, ONS Source: OECD, ONS
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22. The cumulative increase in the price level since 2019
is higher in the UK compared with elsewhere in the G7
Source: OECD, ONS Source: OECD, ONS
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23. Base effects account for much of the decline in UK
inflation in 2023 – they are less supportive in 2024
Source: OECD, ONS
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24. Services CPI remains firm in the UK but some items
that are indicative of underlying inflation have turned
Source: OECD, ONS Source: OECD, ONS
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25. The share of CPI items with inflation above 5% is falling
in the UK but remains higher than Europe and the US
Source: BLS, ECB, ONS
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26. UK inflation is projected to decline further 2024 but
remain higher than in other major economies
Source: OECD, ONS Source: IMF, ONS
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27. Key takeaways
 UK inflation more than halved in 2023, narrowing the gap with other G7 economies but core
inflation remains firmer than elsewhere in the G7
 Higher inflation relative to peers in recent years has meant that the price level has increased by
more in the UK compared with other G7 economies since the pandemic on a cumulative basis
 Last year’s decline in annual inflation was mainly driven by base effects – these are less supportive
to a further decline in inflation in 2024
 Service price inflation remains high in the UK but some components that are most indicative of
underlying trends – such as restaurants – have seen some decline in the inflation rate
 UK inflation is projected to decline further in 2024, narrowing the gap with other G7 economies but
remaining above the G7 average inflation rate
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28. Closing remarks
Sumit Dey-Chowdhury
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Deputy Director
Economic and Microdata Insights
Office for National Statistics
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29. Forthcoming ONS economic analysis
21 February 2024 Public sector finances, UK: January 2024
26 February 2024 Household Costs Indices for UK household groups: October 2023 to December
2023
26 February 2024 Services turnover in the UK: 2022
27 February 2024 Business enterprise research and development, UK: 2022
1 March 2024 Time use in the public sector, Great Britain: February 2024
1 March 2024 UK trade in goods, year in review: 2023
12 March 2024 Labour Market theme Day
13 March 2024 Monthly GDP Theme day
All information on upcoming analysis can be found via the ONS website
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30. Upcoming ONS events
Tuesday 27 February 2024 – Insights from the Research and Development statistics
transformation
• This webinar will explain the Business Expenditure on Research and Development (BERD) Statistics
released earlier in the day
Monday 18 March 2024 – ONS Economic Forum
• We will be showcasing the latest economic and social developments including a wide range of analytic
topics. Each month we will feature ‘State of the Economy,' providing a stocktake of the latest trends and
developments. Registration to open shortly
20 March 2024 – Migration Statistics System Webinar
• To provide updates and answer questions relating to long-term international migration statistics
Further details at: ons.gov.uk/economicevents
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31. Upcoming ESCoE webinars
22 February 2024 – Where Do the Data Come From? Endogenous Classification in
Administrative Data. Presented by Matthew Grant, Assistant Professor of Economics, Dartmouth
7 March 2024 – Multidimensional Hardships in the United States during the Covid-19 Pandemic.
Presented by Shatakshee Dhongde, Associate Dean and Associate Professor of Economics, Georgia
Institute of Technology
21 March 2024 – Depletion and degradation in the UK Natural Capital Accounts. Presented by
Aram Hawa, Senior Research Officer, Office for National Statistics
Further details can be found at: escoe.ac.uk/webinars
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32. ONS User Research Panel
• Want to be part of our user testing panel?
• We are the leading voice in statistics for the UK looking to expand our user
testing services. We are always keen to have the opportunity test new services
with users and understand the true user needs.
• You can sign up to be a part of our user testing panel at:
https://www.smartsurvey.co.uk/s/ONSUserRecruitment/
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33. Thank you for attending the
Economic Forum
You can keep up to date on all upcoming events via
ons.gov.uk/economicevents
If you would like to ask a question or provide any feedback, please do so
via economic.engagement@ons.gov.uk