Keynote presentation made by Dr Matthew Ives, Systems Modeller, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford on Day 1 of ISNGI 2016.

1. NISMOD-International
Dr Matthew Ives, University of Oxford
ISNGI Conference
Wollongong, 1-2 September 2016
Evidence-based national
infrastructure development

2. “We Are the First Generation that Can End Poverty,
the Last that Can End Climate Change”
- UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon
Lets start with a statement the UN Secretary General made that clearly articulates the
incredible opportunities that present themselves to us, and the fantastic challenges that lie
therein.

3. $70,000,000,000,000
One such challenge was reported recently by the World Economic Forum - that an additional
70 trillion dollars of global infrastructure investment is needed by 2030 to meet the needs of a
rapidly growing population

4. $14,000,000,000,000
And an additional 14 trillion dollars global infrastructure investment is required over this
same period to meet the minimum climate change targets of the COP21 decelerations

5. $84,000,000,000,000
$2,100,000,000,000
These are massive numbers. And against the backdrop of an estimated $140 billion annual ODA,
and this is for all ODA, not just infrastructure investments, clearly the developing world is going
to need innovative approaches in their ambitions to leave no-one behind. This will require
governments to make the most efficient use of existing infrastructure assets, and make the most
effective use of scarce financial resources. Strategic evidence-based project selection is going to
be key, as well as enabling governments to attract new sources and streams of funding, such as
the private sector, including social impact investment.

6. The Silo Approach
Another challenge is that currently governments plan, make decisions and implement
infrastructure within silos of sectors, with little real consideration or appreciation to the other
sectors. And in countries that are benefiting from development aid, this is compounded by
the aid development aid coordination structures that take the same approach and reinforce
this siloed effect.

7. And because of this the very logic and reality of the interdependencies of
systems is missed and opportunities lost in asset efficiencies, as well as
effective investments.

8. Interdependencies
$ $ $
10yrs 20yrs 30yrs 40yrs 50yrs……
..
And if we take this same example for schools, hospitals, police stations and other public service
infrastructure assets that are built to deliver social services. Often there is very little
consideration to whether the water utility resources are sufficient to meet the demand, whether
at the municipal, regional or national level, the same with energy systems; or little
consideration is given to maintenance requirements, or the costs of these, especially over the
life span of the facility, or the people and competencies required to deliver the services, or the
demand this will place on the transport systems, communication systems or waste systems or
its relationship with the environment, or its resilience to shock.

9. This is potentially manageable when it is one facility, or a few, but when development plans
consider a multitude of assets, which all development agendas do and are increasingly so due
to a rapidly growing demand from a rapidly growing population

10. Then this can overburden the systems they depend on, and oversaturate them. Whether
hard infrastructure systems such as water, energy and waste, or soft systems such as
finance and governance. Multi million dollar facilities sit idle with no electricity to
commission and operate them, facilities degrade due to a lack of proper maintenance, and
facilities are built to inferior standards because the needs are not prioritized and scarce
financial resources are used to maximize building of assets. Intended impacts are not
realized and value for money is lost.

11. Failed projects wasted opportunities
You would not need to search far for examples of failed projects and wasted opportunities.

12. Paradigm Shift
A more strategic approach to infrastructure requires that we take account of the
requirements of sustainability, not only in terms of the SDGs, but also to ensure that the
infrastructure built in developing countries is truly sustainable and effective. Infrastructure
and its associated planning must therefore undertake a fundamental shift in thinking
“Let us move from silos to synergy, supported by data, long-term
planning and a will to do things differently.”
- UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon

13. National
Infrastructure
Procurement Plan
DBB DB PPP
The Model of Evidence Based Infrastructure Development
Policy
Structure
Governance
&
Regulation
Reform
Government
Population Define
National Vision
0 → 50 years
Infrastructure
Demands
COP21
Resilient
Outcomes
[SFDRR]
SDGs
Existing
Infrastructure
Pipeline
Asset
Register /
Assessment
Productivity
Assessment
Long Term
Performance
Regional
Development
Risk &
Vulnerability
National
Infrastructure
Modelling
System
Infrastructure
Data Base
National
Infrastructure Plan
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91 10
Evidence & Business Case
Based Project Selection
1
SPV
Project
Delivery &
Operation
US$
Private/Impact
Investment
Investment
Blends Provides long term
investment certainty &
infrastructure
investment pipeline

14. Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium
• ITRC was funded by EPSRC from 2011-2015 (£4.7 million)
• MISTRAL is the new £5.3million Grant from EPSRC funding ITRC from 2016-2020
Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC)
http://www.itrc.org.uk
The ITRC is a consortium of seven UK universities:
 University of Oxford
 Newcastle University
 University of Southampton
 Cardiff University
 University of Cambridge
 University of Leeds
 University of Sussex
Aim:
To develop and demonstrate a new generation of simulation models and tools to
inform the analysis, planning and design of national infrastructure

15. Major components of ITRC Research
1. National infrastructure database and visualisation tools
2. Economics and governance of national infrastructure
3. National infrastructure vulnerability, risk and resilience analysis
4. System-of-systems analysis capability to inform long term
planning, investment and design for national infrastructure

16. NISMOD: National Infrastructure Systems MODel
What is a system-of-systems?
Customers
Assets
Sub-systems
Systems
System-of-systems
Gas
ICT
Water
Electricity
Transportation
Waste
Multi-Scale Structure
Infrastructure
interdependencies

17. NISMOD: National Infrastructure Systems MODel
System-of-systems
The transport sector
represents 34% of energy
demand in the UK*
*(Defra, 2009)
Electricity generation is
responsible for 32% of
non-tidal water
abstractions*
Energy
Waste
Water Digital communications
Socio-economics
Energy from
waste
Transport

18. NISMOD: National Infrastructure Systems MODel
The NISMOD system-of-systems model

19. Transforming national infrastructure choices worldwide
Adapting, applying and testing the concepts and methodologies
we have developed in the UK to other countries.
Inform the planning of infrastructure investments in new contexts:
• Developed economies
• Emerging economies
• Least developed countries
• Post-disaster and post-conflict situations
Growing relationships with:
• UN
• World Bank
• DfID

20. Infrastructure development challenges
Past problems associated with infrastructure development in fragile and
developing countries:
• No systems-based national infrastructure strategy or program
• A wide dichotomy between demand and supply
• Political, economic, social and technical challenges
• Designs that are inappropriate to the needs and context
• A lack of standard rules and oversight for project procurement
• Inability to capitalise on opportunities to ‘build back better’ following
disaster/conflict
• Many donor-funded projects are unmaintained and/or underutilised due to
lack of funds to pay for operation and maintenance costs
• Large portions of project materials and expertise are sourced from outside
the country with overdesign that allow the leakage of funds.
• High numbers of abandoned projects: e.g. a 2011 report in Nigeria found
11,866 abandoned capital projects that will require £27bn to complete

21. NISMOD: National Infrastructure Systems MODel
The NISMOD assessment process
The NISMOD assessment platform
NISMOD-International consists of:

22. The NISMOD International Process
Define the current system
Assess possible future needs for infrastructure services
Develop the long term vision for national infrastructure
Identify strategic alternatives for delivering the vision
Analyse the scale and timing of strategic alternatives required to
address infrastructure needs
Recommend adaptive pathways of policies and investments

23. Defining the current system
• Review of the geographical context:
– Geographical context (maps, topography)
– Geospatial environmental data e.g. natural hazards
– Population (geographical)
– Economic activities (including government and social)
• Review of local infrastructure systems:
– Asset and network layers for infrastructure sectors: energy,
transport, digital coms, water, waste)
– Asset characteristics: capacity, condition, age
• Review of the governance structures in which
infrastructure decisions are made

24. Assess possible future needs for infrastructure
services
• Assess present day needs for
infrastructure services
– Per capita demands
– Per unit demands from the economy
• Assess drivers of future needs
– Scenarios of future population and
economic status
– Per capita and per unit demands from the
economy
– Environmental change

25. Assessing infrastructure system functionality
Geographical asset/network representation of system function
• Supply points i.e. energy, water, waste water, solid waste
• Connectivity capacity and current usage e.g. capacity and usage of
highway network
• Allocation of demand to assets (sink sites) and network.
• Source-sink connectivity
Enables assessment of:
• Current capacity margins
• Location of capacity constraints
• Economic and environmental costs
• Network vulnerabilities
• Maintaining essential services

26. Develop the long term vision for national
infrastructure
• Presentation of a preliminary assessments to stakeholders
• Validation of our representation of the current system
• Soliciting agreement on metrics for assessment of future
strategies
Daily water allocation per capita (litres/capita/day), West Bank and Gaza {WHO,
2013; Howard, 2003; PCBS, 2014; PCBS, 2014)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
West Bank
Gaza
WHO (2003) All Needs Met
WHO (2013) Survival Level

27. Developing a national vision and identify strategic
alternatives for delivering the vision
• Mapping out alternative investment strategies and policy options
• Both supply and demand
side options
• Demand management
• Improved efficiencies
• New infrastructure
• Developing a vision and goals for
future infrastructure systems:
– Sector-specific targets
– cross-sectoral targets

28. Analyse the scale and timing of strategic
alternatives required to address needs
• Exploring investment
and policy options
and trade-offs
• Prioritising
investments
• Identifying key
investment decision
points

29. Recommend adaptive pathways of policies and
investments
• Iterative process towards final co-generated
recommendations
• Developing adaptive pathways relevant to context:
– Acknowledging that goals could be at multiple scales
– .. involve multiple-actors
– … and multiple criteria (not all of which are included in the model)

30. NISMOD: National Infrastructure Systems MODel
The NISMOD assessment process
The NISMOD assessment platform
NISMOD-International consists of:

31. 1. Geographical system definition
A set of GIS layers that set out the current infrastructure system and the
contextual factors relevant to that system.
1a Infrastructure system:
• Asset and network layers for infrastructure sectors: energy,
transport, digital coms, water, waste)
• Asset characteristics: capacity, condition, age
1b Geographical context:
• Maps, photos
• Topography
• Geospatial environmental data
e.g. natural hazards
1c Socio-economic data:
• Population (geographical)
• Economic activities (including
government and social)

32. 2. Needs for infrastructure services
2a Present needs for infrastructure
services
• Per capita demands
• Per unit demands from the economy
2b Drivers of future needs
• Scenarios of future population and
economic status
• Scenarios of climate change

33. 3. Infrastructure system functionality
Geographical Asset/network representation of system function, based on
the data in 1a.
• Supply points i.e. energy, water, waste water, solid waste
• Connectivity capacity and current usage e.g. capacity and usage of
highway network
• Allocation of demand to assets (sink sites) and network.
• Source-sink connectivity
Repair/upgrade costs
for wastewater sites
West Papua (Indonesia)
This will enable:
• A definition of current capacity
margins. Where are the capacity
constraints, at present and in the
future.
• Analysis of network vulnerabilities
and infrastructure hotspots

34. 4. Strategies for infrastructure provision
• Vision and goals for the infrastructure system (levels of ambition)
• Sector-specific targets
• Investment and policy options (supply and demand side)
• Analyse options to achieve goals/targets, including possible variants
• Estimate costs: capital, operation, environmental
NISMOD:
National
Infrastructure
Systems
MODel

35. Current International applications
New Zealand Dubai
China
Palestine

36. Benefits of evidence-based national
infrastructure development
Provides long term certainty for
investment decision making:
An absolute requirement to
attract private sector
investment at scale.
Provides long term certainty for
investment decision making:
An absolute requirement to
attract private sector
investment at scale.
De-couples political self-interest
from the decision making and
investment in infrastructure.
De-couples political self-interest
from the decision making and
investment in infrastructure.
Facilitates understanding of the
impacts of shocks events and
enables planning for such.
Enables response planning that is
adaptive to changing conditions –
i.e. building back better
Facilitates understanding of the
impacts of shocks events and
enables planning for such.
Enables response planning that is
adaptive to changing conditions –
i.e. building back better
Is flexible and should be
continuously updated:
“No plan survives first contact.”
Is flexible and should be
continuously updated:
“No plan survives first contact.”
Provides capability to effectively
plan for SDG and COP21
requirements.
Provides capability to effectively
plan for SDG and COP21
requirements.
Help to de-risk investor decision
making and help governments to
afford debts incurred through the
private funding approach
Help to de-risk investor decision
making and help governments to
afford debts incurred through the
private funding approach