SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Risk-based Bridge Assessment Under Changing
Load-Demand and Environmental Conditions
Dr Boulent Imam
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Surrey
b.imam@surrey.ac.uk
SMART Seminar Series
• Introduction on metallic railway bridges
• Fatigue analysis of riveted railway bridges
- Load modelling (current, past & future)
- Finite element analysis
- Probabilistic/reliability analysis
• Long-term deterioration of metallic bridges
- Long-term material deterioration
- Impact of changing environmental conditions
• Scour analysis of bridges
- Climate change effects
Contents
Introduction
• Degradation through corrosion and fatigue
• Large number of aged railway bridges in UK (> 15,000)
and Europe (> 30,000)
• Heavily utilised networks – replacement is impossible
• Improved assessment methods & repair/strengthening
techniques are sought
• Infinite life assets!
• Meeting asset management objectives for next
generation of transport infrastructure
1840 1848
Railway network in the UK
Introduction
Introduction
Cast iron
bridges
Introduction
Wrought
iron
bridges
Introduction
Steel
bridges
Introduction
Introduction
Ageing &
Deterioration
Inter-dependencies
Are assets
safe?
If so, for
how long?
At what
cost?
Fatigue analysis of riveted
railway bridges
Metallic railway bridges
Age
<20 yrs 20-50 yrs 50-100 yrs >100 yrs
Material
Cast Iron Wrought Iron Steel
Span
<10 m 10-40 m >40 m
Total number in UK: 16000
Motivation of research
• Riveted bridges may be close to or have exceeded their fatigue lives
• Able to cope with current load demands
• Unusual material – wrought iron
• Cracks have been discovered in riveted connections (in many cases
hidden)
• More reliable fatigue assessment methodology
• Better (optimal) decision making
Fatigue damage
Fatigue damage
Riveted connections
Typical riveted bridge
Cross-
girder
Stringer
Fatigue analysis
Global bridge modelling vs. Local connection modelling
Fatigue analysis
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
S7-S5
S8-S6
S3-S5
S4-S6
S6-S8
S5-S7
S7-S9
S8-S10
S3-S1
S6-S4
S4-S2
S5-S3
S2
S1
S10
S9
Totalfatiguedamage
Connection
Modified Class B Class WI Class D
Fatigue ranking of connections (global vs. local)
0.0E+00
5.0E-05
1.0E-04
1.5E-04
2.0E-04
2.5E-04
3.0E-04
3.5E-04
4.0E-04
Hole 4 Hole 5 Hole 1 Hole 2 Angle Fillet Hole 3 Rivet 3 Rivet 2 Rivet 1 Rivet 5 Rivet 4
Singletrainfatiguedamage
Connection region
50 MPa 100 MPa 150 MPa 200 MPa
Global Local
Identify most critical
connections in bridge
Identify most critical regions
in connection itself
Inspection
planning
Global analysis
Past, present and future …
• Understand the past
• Evaluate the present
• Predict the future
Stress
TimePresent
Past Future
TimePresent
Accumulated
damage ?
Future
Cumulative
fatigue damage
Failure
? Remaining life
Railway loading (past)
Freight (1900-1940)
Freight (1940-1970)
Passenger (1920-1970) Suburban (1900-1970)Passenger (1900-1920)
Railway loading
Historical
(1900-1970)
BS 5400
(1970- )
Probabilistic Fatigue Life Estimates for Riveted Railway Bridges
B.M. Imam, T.D. Righiniotis, M.K. Chryssanthopoulos & B. Bell
Railway loading
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Stress(MPa)
Load step
Engine 1st wagon
Fatigue damage
Fatigue damage
Cumulative Damage of Connections S7-S5 & S8-S6
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year
CumulativeDamage
S7-S5 (Class B) S8-S6 (Class B) S7-S5 (Class D) S8-S6 (Class D) S7-S5 (Class WI) S8-S6 (Class WI)
80 yrs
85 yrs
120 yrs
128 yrs
289 yrs
303 yrs
Modified
Class B
Class WI
Class D
Fatigue damage
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
CumulativeDamage
Year
Cumulative damage of connection S7-S5 (Class WI)
No DAF Byers EC1 Tobias & Foutch D23 Network Rail
21-31 yrs
120 yrs
No DAF
With DAF
Connection ranking
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40 S7-S5
S8-S6
S3-S5
S4-S6
S6-S8
S5-S7
S7-S9
S8-S10
S3-S1
S6-S4
S4-S2
S5-S3
S2
S1
S10
S9
Totaldamage
Connection
Modified Class B Class WI Class D
80yrs
85yrs
289yrs120yrs
128yrs
Probabilistic fatigue analysis
•Loading Uncertainties
Dynamic amplification factor (DAF)
Annual train frequency (fti )
•Material Uncertainties
S-N curve (fatigue resistance behaviour)
Damage index Δ in Miner’s sum (fatigue failure limit)
•Model Uncertainties
Factor  accounting for the differences between measured and
calculated stresses in steel bridges
0.0E+00
1.0E+05
2.0E+05
3.0E+05
4.0E+05
5.0E+05
6.0E+05
7.0E+05
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100
Stress range (MPa)
Numberofappliedcycles
Modified Class B
fatigue limit
Class WI
fatigue limit
Class D
fatigue limit
Mean = 5.79 MPa
CoV = 1.09
Weibull distribution parameters
η=6.02 , β=1.0
0.0E+00
1.0E+05
2.0E+05
3.0E+05
4.0E+05
5.0E+05
6.0E+05
7.0E+05
8.0E+05
9.0E+05
1.0E+06
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100
Stress range (MPa)
Numberofappliedcycles
Modified Class B
fatigue limit
Class WI
fatigue limit
Class D
fatigue limit
Mean = 6.75 MPa
CoV = 0.84
Weibull distribution parameters
η=5.05 , β=0.98
0.0E+00
1.0E+05
2.0E+05
3.0E+05
4.0E+05
5.0E+05
6.0E+05
7.0E+05
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100
Stress range (MPa)
Numberofappliedcycles
Modified Class B
fatigue limit
Class WI
fatigue limit
Class D
fatigue limit
Mean = 8.91 MPa
CoV = 0.64
Weibull distribution parameters
η=4.35 , β=0.90
0.0E+00
5.0E+04
1.0E+05
1.5E+05
2.0E+05
2.5E+05
3.0E+05
3.5E+05
4.0E+05
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100
Stress range (MPa)
Numberofappliedcycles
Modified Class B
fatigue limit
Class WI
fatigue limit
Class D
fatigue limit
Mean = 12.6 MPa
CoV = 0.75
Weibull distribution parameters
η=15.0 , β=1.60
Period 1900-1920
Probabilistic fatigue analysis
Period 1920-1940
Period 1940-1970 Period 1970-
Probabilistic fatigue analysis
0.000001
0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
ProbabilityoffailurePf
Time after 2005 (years)
μ = 685 years
sdev = 411 years
μ = 515 years
sdev = 304 years
No load evolution
Increase in train frequencies
Increase in train
frequencies & axle
weights
μ = 242 years
sdev = 133 years
6,000 similar
bridges
100,000 similar
connections
Very high standard deviations
Intensified inspection,
monitoring and repair
plans for old bridges
Global analysis
Refined Assessment
Refined Assessment
Refined Assessment
• Influence of:
• Rivet clamping force
• Friction between connection elements
• Most highly stressed parts of the connection
itself
• Different damage scenarios (cracking, loss of
rivet clamping force, loss of rivets)
Refined Assessment
0
1
2
3
4
Hole 1 Hole 2 Hole 3 Hole 4 Hole 5 Rivet 1 Rivet 2 Rivet 3 Rivet 4 Rivet 5 Angle
Fillet
Dl/Dg
100 MPa 200 MPa
Global model
damage
>100yrs
>100yrs
>100yrs
>100yrs
>100yrs
>150yrs
>150yrs
>150yrs
7yrs
12yrs
81yrs
30yrs
84yrs
39yrs
73yrs
73yrs
Refined Assessment
System analysis
System analysis
System analysis
Main findings
• Inner stringer-to-cross-girder connections are the most fatigue
critical
• Significant increase in the damage accumulation rate during the last
few decades
• Very high standard deviations in fatigue life → high uncertainty in
fatigue evaluation procedures → improvement of assessment
procedures unlikely → importance of inspection and management
plans
• Some connections approaching the end of their service life → given
their very large number in the bridge network → adopting timely
management of repairs and replacement
• Traditional code methods can underestimate fatigue damage in
some cases by a factor of 3
Long-term deterioration of
metallic bridges
41
Material corrosion
Level Description Comments
1
Empirical models. Effect of all influencing
factors taken into account through model
constants
Model coefficients are associated with very high
uncertainty. Statistical properties may not be reliable due
to inhomogeneous samples. Questionable model
transferability.
2
Empirical models which relate the rate of
corrosion to specific exposure variables, also
known as dose response functions (DRF).
Reliance on spatial data for atmospheric pollutants and
climatic parameters. Potentially suitable for probabilistic
analysis, though uncertainty modelling largely untested.
3
Theoretical models involving simulation
techniques to predict airflow patterns and
pollutant mass transfer on exposed surfaces.
Heavy reliance on modelling assumptions. Complex
uncertainty modelling, currently lack of input data at
desired granularity level.
B
AttC )(
   0T2
1
SOTOW Cl
1 1
D F H
J TB
C t At e
C E G
     
      
   
Level 1:
Level 2:
42
Material corrosion
Corrosivity
category
Description Corrosion rates 1
(mm/year)
C1 Very low corrosivity: Dry or cold zone, atmospheric environment with
very low pollution and time of wetness, e.g. certain deserts, Central
Arctic/Antarctica.
≤ 0.0013
C2 Low corrosivity: Temperate zone, atmospheric environment with low
pollution (SO2 < 5 μg/m3
), e.g. rural areas, small towns. Dry or cold
zone, atmospheric environment with short time of wetness, e.g. deserts,
subarctic areas.
0.0013 < A ≤ 0.025
C3 Medium corrosivity: Temperate zone, atmospheric environment with
medium pollution (SO2: 5 μg/m2
to 30 μg/m3
) or some effect of
chlorides, e.g. urban areas, coastal areas with low deposition of
chlorides. Subtropical and tropical zone, atmosphere with low pollution.
0.025 < A ≤ 0.050
C4 High corrosivity: Temperate zone, atmospheric environment with high
pollution (SO2: 30 μg/m3
to 90 μg/m3
) or substantial effect of chlorides,
e.g. polluted urban areas, industrial areas, coastal areas without spray of
salt water or, exposure to effect of de-icing salts. Subtropical and tropical
zone, atmosphere with medium pollution.
0.050 < A ≤ 0.080
C5 Very high corrosivity: Temperate and subtropical zone, atmospheric
environment with very high pollution (SO2: 90 μg/m3
to 250 μg/m3
)
and/or significant effect of chlorides, e.g. industrial areas, coastal areas,
sheltered positions on coastline.
0.080 < A ≤ 0.200
CX Extreme corrosivity: Subtropical and tropical zone (very high time of
wetness), atmospheric environment with high SO2 pollution (higher than
250 μg/m3
) including accompanying and production factors and/or
strong effect of chlorides, e.g. extreme industrial areas, coastal and
offshore areas, occasional contact with salt spray.
0.200 < A ≤ 0.700
Notes: 1
Corrosion rates correspond to the first year of exposure.
1
Changing environmental conditions
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Air temperature (oC)
PDF
UKCP09 simulation: period 2010-2039
Normal fit (mean = 11.67, SD = 0.52)
UKCP09 simulation: period 2070-2099
Normal fit (mean = 13.08, SD = 0.95)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Air temperature (oC)
PDF
UKCP09 simulation: period 2010-2039
Normal fit (mean = 11.65, SD = 0.51)
UKCP09 simulation: period 2070-2099
Normal fit (mean = 14.68, SD = 1.33)
Low emissions scenario High emissions scenario
UKCP09 – UK Climate Projections Database
Changing environmental conditions
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 15 30 45 60 75 90
Time (years)
Corrosionloss(mm)
TOW = 5500h/year
TOW = 4000h/year
TOW = 2500h/year
SO2 = 60 μg/m3
Cl = 0 mg/m2
/day
T = 12 o
C
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 15 30 45 60 75 90
Time (years)
Corrosionloss(mm)
Cl = 300 mg/m2/day
Cl = 60 mg/m2/day
Cl = 0 mg/m2/day
SO2 = 60 μg/m3
TOW = 4000 h/year
T = 12 o
C
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 15 30 45 60 75 90
Time (years)
Corrosionloss(mm)
Sulphur dioxide = 250 μg/m3
Sulphur dioxide = 90 μg/m3
Sulphur dioxide = 30 μg/m3
Cl = 0 mg/m2
/day
TOW = 4000 h/year
T = 12 o
C
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 15 30 45 60 75 90
Time (years)
Corrosionloss(mm)
T = 17 oC
T = 15 oC
T = 12 oC
SO2 = 60 μg/m3
Cl = 60 mg/m2
/day
TOW = 4000 h/year
Time-of-
wetness
(TOW)
Cl
deposition
rate
SO2
concentration
Temperature
Changing exposure conditions
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Corrosionloss(mm)
Time (years)
Constant exposure conditions
With sharp SO2 change at t=20 years
with gradual SO2 change over a 20-year period
Case study
Material corrosion – Probability of
failure
Effect of temperature
1.0E-05
1.0E-04
1.0E-03
1.0E-02
1.0E-01
2012 2032 2052 2072 2092
Year
Cumulativeprobabilityd
offlexuralfailure,pf(0,t)
S2
S3
S4
S5
1.0E-05
1.0E-04
1.0E-03
1.0E-02
1.0E-01
1.0E+00
2012 2032 2052 2072 2092
Year
Cumulativeprobabilityd
offlexuralfailure,pf(0,t)
S1
S5
S6
S7
1.0E-05
1.0E-04
1.0E-03
1.0E-02
1.0E-01
2012 2032 2052 2072 2092
Year
Cumulativeprobabilityofd
flexuralfailure,pf(0,t)
S5
S8
Effect of SO2
Effect of TOW
Material corrosion - Risk
Risk of failure = probability of failure × consequences of failure
   tCtptR ff )(
1.0E+02
1.0E+03
1.0E+04
1.0E+05
1.0E+06
1.0E+07
2012 2032 2052 2072 2092
Year
Time-dependentrisk(GBP,£)
S1
S5
S6
S7
Network-based risk
Consequences Examples
Human Fatalities
Injuries
Economic Reconstruction cost
Repair costs
Loss of functionality/downtime
Traffic delay / re-routing costs
…..
Environmental CO2 Emissions
Energy use
Pollutant releases
Societal Loss of reputation / public
confidence
Changes in professional practice
Loss of business
Often practical to express all consequences in terms of monetary units
Consequences of failure
• System boundaries
– Structural domain (structural
system itself)
– Spatial domain (transportation
network)
• Extent of spatial domain
– Single route with diversions
– Wider network (redundancy)
• Further layers can be added
(environment, society, …)
Human consequences
• Fatalities and / or injuries
• Highly variable in terms of predicting & valuing
• Valuation of human life
- UK DfT: £1.43 million for road fatalities (2005 prices)
- EU: €1.5 million for road fatalities
- RSSB: £3.46 million for rail fatalities (2003 prices)
- HSE: £1 million for fatality (2001 prices)
• Encompass direct human and economic loss i.e. loss of
output, medical costs, amount to reflect pain & grief
Economic consequences
• Reconstruction time:
- highway bridges: mean=230 days, st.dev.=110 days
- railway bridges: mean=110 days, st.dev.=73 days
• These can be used to estimate traffic delay costs
• Debris clean up costs:
- transportation of failed material
- number of trucks, capacities, distance to disposal site, fuel
consumption
Economic consequences
• UK Highways Agency:
- £9.30/hour (2002 prices) for average vehicle
• U.S. Department of Transportation
- $8.90/person-hour for local travel
- $12.20/person-hour for intercity travel (in 1997 prices)
- $16.50/person-hour for trucks
• EU countries (in 1998 prices)
Passenger Transport Freight Transport
Car
Business: €21.00/person-hour
Commuting/Private: €6.00/person-hour
Leisure/Holiday: €4.00/person-hour
Light Goods Vehicle: €40.0/vehicle-hour
Light Goods Vehicle: €43.0/vehicle-hour
Interurban Rail
Business: €21.00/person-hour
Commuting/Private: €6.40/person-hour
Leisure/Holiday: €3.20/person-hour
Full train load (950 tonnes): €725.0/tonne-hour
Wagon load (40 tonnes): €30.0/tonne-hour
Average per tonne: €0.76/tonne-hour
Economic consequences
• Traffic management costs in case of bridge repairs:
- over or under the bridge
- selection of scheme depends on traffic volume and road type
Carriageway closure /
full contraflow
One-lane closure Two-lane closure
Motorway
£850 (1 km TM scheme) £350 £450
£1250 (3 km TM scheme)
Dual
carriageway
£500 £350 £450
Single
carriageway
£800 (traffic signal control
management)
£300
Economic consequences
• Consequences on business
• Disruption of normal business activities
• Delays on customers, deliveries, suppliers
• Loss of business, increased production costs etc.
• Economic expertise is required
Economic consequences
• Infrastructure interdependencies
- bridges can be part of electricity, telephone, water, gas
networks
Environmental consequences
• Carbon emissions from production of bridge materials
Material Carbon emitted
Steel 1820 Kg CO2/te
Cement 800 Kg CO2/te
Reinforced Concrete 260-450 Kg CO2/te
Asphalt 46 Kg CO2/te
Environmental consequences
• Emissions from traffic related sources
Vehicle type CO2 emissions
Petrol car 0.1730-0.2994 kg CO2 / passenger km
Diesel car 0.1452-0.2455 kg CO2 / passenger km
Hybrid car 0.1191-0.2173 kg CO2 / passenger km
Light commercial van (petrol) 0.1941-0.2558 kg CO2 / vehicle km
Light commercial van (diesel) 0.1571-0.2691 kg CO2 / vehicle km
Heavy goods vehicle (diesel) 0.5276-1.163 kg CO2 / vehicle km
Rail (passenger) 0.05340 kg CO2 / vehicle km
Rail (freight) 0.02850 kg CO2 / tonne km
Environmental consequences
• Air / Noise pollution
• Number of affected households
• PM10 pollution; NOx pollution
• ~ €135/household/1μg/m³ for PM10
• ~ €1,300/tonne for NOx
• Different noise severity levels
• €40/household for 50 decibels
• €165/household for 75 decibels.
Bridge failure consequences
Consequence type
Costs
(€ millions)
Percentage (%)
Fatality/Casualty costs €393.8 28.7
Traffic delay/ Detour costs €844.3 61.5
CO2 emission costs €7.2 0.52
Noise pollution costs €5.4 0.39
Air quality costs €59.8 4.36
Traffic management costs €0.32 0.02
Reconstruction costs €62.0 4.52
Total Costs €1,372.8 100.0
Scour Analysis of Bridges
Bridge scour
• Bridge scour is the most common cause for bridge failure!
• Most prediction methods are empirical
• Sources of uncertainty
 River/flow characteristics
 Effect of changing environmental conditions (climate change)
 Unknown foundation depths
 Empirical models
• Framework for scour reliability assessment under changing
conditions
Bridge scour
Bridge scour
Low flow Normal flow Extreme flow
More record
extreme flow
Statistical variability of climate change
Bridge scour & Climate change
• Scour assessment based on max annual flow, Q, with return period T=2 years
• Q obtained from annual maxima series of pooling group flood data (FEH)
• Expected annual flow best described by Generalised Extreme Value (GEV)
distribution
• Flow events in different years assumed to be independent
• Parametric study to quantify changing conditions through changes in distribution
parameters
Bridge scour & Climate change
Random variables
Variables Mean COV Distribution Reference
River
Width B (m) 65 0.05 Normal Assumed
Streambed conditions (K3) 1.1 0.05 Uniform
NCHRP
(2003)
Bed material size (K4) 1.0 - Deterministic Assumed
Slope s 0.0032 0.05 Lognormal Assumed
Manning’s coefficient n 0.035 0.28 Lognormal
NCHRP
(2003)
Bridge
piers
Foundation depth DF (m) 4.5 - Deterministic Assumed
Pier nose shape (K1) 1.0 - Deterministic Assumed
Angle of attack (K2) 1.0 - Deterministic Assumed
Pier width, D (m) 2 0.05 Normal Assumed
Scour
eqn.
Modelling uncertainty, λsc 0.55 0.52
Normal/
lognormal
NCHRP
(2003)
Bridge scour – Case Study
Parametric analyses: 20%, 40% and 60% increases over a 60-year period
A: Annual; C: Cumulative probabilities of failure
Effect of river flow characteristics
Bridge scour – Case Study
Effect of foundation depth
Bridge scour – Case Study
Effect of scour modelling uncertainty (FD = 5m)
Bridge scour – Case Study
Effect of asset data uncertainties
Bridge scour – Case Study
Concluding remarks
• Better understanding of fatigue and deterioration – more effective
asset management
• Still a lot to learn from the first infrastructure asset population –
invaluable to next generation of structures
• Utilising the best out of our assets’ service
• Environmental sensitivity becoming more and more important
• Climate change uncertainty is often quoted as a major barrier for
adaptation. However, in some cases be overshadowed by other
modelling and asset uncertainties, which can be reduced
• Understanding uncertainties and variabilities is key to effective
risk assessment
Key publications
• Imam B.M., Righiniotis T.D., Chryssanthopoulos M.K. (2007). Numerical modelling of riveted railway bridge
connections for fatigue evaluation. Engineering Structures, 29(11): 3071-3081.
• Imam B.M., Righiniotis T.D., Chryssanthopoulos M.K. (2008). Probabilistic fatigue evaluation of riveted railway bridges.
Journal of Bridge Engineering (ASCE), 13(3): 237-244.
• Righiniotis T.D., Imam B.M., Chryssanthopoulos M.K. (2008). Fatigue analysis of riveted railway bridge connections
using the theory of critical distances. Engineering Structures, 30(10): 2707-2715.
• Imam B.M., Righiniotis T.D. (2010). Fatigue evaluation of riveted railway bridges through global and local analysis.
Journal of Constructional Steel Research, 66(11): 1411-1421.
• Imam B.M., Chryssanthopoulos M.K, Frangopol D.M. (2012). Fatigue system reliability analysis of riveted railway
bridge connections. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 8(10), 967-984.
• Imam B.M., Chryssanthopoulos M.K. (2012). Causes and consequences of metallic bridge failures. Structural
Engineering International, 22(1): 93-98.
• Kumar P., Imam B.M. (2013). Footprints of air pollution and changing environment on the sustainability of built
infrastructure. Science of the Total Environment, 444, 85-101.
• Kallias A.N., Imam B. (2015). Probabilistic Assessment of Local Scour in Bridge Piers under Changing Environmental
Conditions. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 12(9): 1228- 1241.
• Kallias A.N., Imam B.M., Chryssanthopoulos M.K. (2016). Performance profiles of metallic bridges subject to coating
degradation and atmospheric corrosion, Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 440-453.
• Dikanksi H., Hagen-Zanker A., Imam B., Avery K. (2017). Climate change impacts on railway structures: bridge scour.
Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE) Journal – Engineering Sustainability, 170(5): 237-248.
• Dikanski H., Imam B., Hagen-Zanker A. (2018). Effects of uncertain stock data on the assessment of climate change
risks: A case study of bridge scour in the UK. Structural Safety, 71: 1-12

More Related Content

Similar to SMART Seminar Series: "Risk-based bridge assessment under changing load-demand and environmental conditions". Presented by Dr Boulent Imam

Evaluating Pipeline Operational Integrity - Sand Production
Evaluating Pipeline Operational Integrity - Sand ProductionEvaluating Pipeline Operational Integrity - Sand Production
Evaluating Pipeline Operational Integrity - Sand Production
Vijay Sarathy
 
pipe-stress-analysis-work.ppt
pipe-stress-analysis-work.pptpipe-stress-analysis-work.ppt
pipe-stress-analysis-work.ppt
infosoftitsolutions
 
071 cracking in ctb
071 cracking in ctb071 cracking in ctb
071 cracking in ctbCROW
 
Bridge loading
Bridge loadingBridge loading
Bridge loading
kapilpant12
 
IRJET - Experimental Investigation of flexural member of Beam Opening in ...
IRJET -  	  Experimental Investigation of flexural member of Beam Opening in ...IRJET -  	  Experimental Investigation of flexural member of Beam Opening in ...
IRJET - Experimental Investigation of flexural member of Beam Opening in ...
IRJET Journal
 
Numerical Investigation of Failure Mechanisms of Cast Iron Watermains
Numerical Investigation of Failure Mechanisms of Cast Iron WatermainsNumerical Investigation of Failure Mechanisms of Cast Iron Watermains
Numerical Investigation of Failure Mechanisms of Cast Iron Watermainskasuni200
 
Capacity ruytenschildtbrug
Capacity ruytenschildtbrug Capacity ruytenschildtbrug
Capacity ruytenschildtbrug
Eva Lantsoght
 
AC Interference Analysis and Mitigation
AC Interference Analysis and MitigationAC Interference Analysis and Mitigation
AC Interference Analysis and Mitigation
Audubon Engineering Company
 
IRJET- Evaluation of Corrosion Rate in Steel Reinforcement of RCC
IRJET- Evaluation of Corrosion Rate in Steel Reinforcement of RCCIRJET- Evaluation of Corrosion Rate in Steel Reinforcement of RCC
IRJET- Evaluation of Corrosion Rate in Steel Reinforcement of RCC
IRJET Journal
 
Final Presentation
Final PresentationFinal Presentation
Final PresentationMonique F M
 
Effects of CO2 impurities on the consequences of pipeline releases – possibil...
Effects of CO2 impurities on the consequences of pipeline releases – possibil...Effects of CO2 impurities on the consequences of pipeline releases – possibil...
Effects of CO2 impurities on the consequences of pipeline releases – possibil...
UK Carbon Capture and Storage Research Centre
 
Reconsidering some basic aspects of soil mechanics - Laurie Wesley, Universit...
Reconsidering some basic aspects of soil mechanics - Laurie Wesley, Universit...Reconsidering some basic aspects of soil mechanics - Laurie Wesley, Universit...
Reconsidering some basic aspects of soil mechanics - Laurie Wesley, Universit...
scgcolombia
 
Rcs1-chapter3-constitutive-law
Rcs1-chapter3-constitutive-lawRcs1-chapter3-constitutive-law
Rcs1-chapter3-constitutive-law
Marwan Sadek
 
ANALYSIS OF PRE-STRESSED BRIDGE CONSTRUCTION
ANALYSIS OF PRE-STRESSED BRIDGE CONSTRUCTIONANALYSIS OF PRE-STRESSED BRIDGE CONSTRUCTION
ANALYSIS OF PRE-STRESSED BRIDGE CONSTRUCTION
atchitect and design
 
reinforced-cement-concrete_prof-aquib.ppt
reinforced-cement-concrete_prof-aquib.pptreinforced-cement-concrete_prof-aquib.ppt
reinforced-cement-concrete_prof-aquib.ppt
Abhishek Paswan
 
reinforced-cement-concrete_prof-aquib.ppt
reinforced-cement-concrete_prof-aquib.pptreinforced-cement-concrete_prof-aquib.ppt
reinforced-cement-concrete_prof-aquib.ppt
satheeskumarv2
 
Non destructive test in building construction
Non destructive test in building construction Non destructive test in building construction
Non destructive test in building construction
Aditya Sanyal
 
Non destructive test
Non destructive test   Non destructive test
Non destructive test
NIRAV SHAH
 
ilovepdf_#تواصل_تطوير المحاضرة رقم 187 أستاذ دكتور / مدحت كمال عبدالله عنوان ...
ilovepdf_#تواصل_تطوير المحاضرة رقم 187 أستاذ دكتور / مدحت كمال عبدالله عنوان ...ilovepdf_#تواصل_تطوير المحاضرة رقم 187 أستاذ دكتور / مدحت كمال عبدالله عنوان ...
ilovepdf_#تواصل_تطوير المحاضرة رقم 187 أستاذ دكتور / مدحت كمال عبدالله عنوان ...
Egyptian Engineers Association
 

Similar to SMART Seminar Series: "Risk-based bridge assessment under changing load-demand and environmental conditions". Presented by Dr Boulent Imam (20)

Evaluating Pipeline Operational Integrity - Sand Production
Evaluating Pipeline Operational Integrity - Sand ProductionEvaluating Pipeline Operational Integrity - Sand Production
Evaluating Pipeline Operational Integrity - Sand Production
 
pipe-stress-analysis-work.ppt
pipe-stress-analysis-work.pptpipe-stress-analysis-work.ppt
pipe-stress-analysis-work.ppt
 
071 cracking in ctb
071 cracking in ctb071 cracking in ctb
071 cracking in ctb
 
Bridge loading
Bridge loadingBridge loading
Bridge loading
 
Ndt
NdtNdt
Ndt
 
IRJET - Experimental Investigation of flexural member of Beam Opening in ...
IRJET -  	  Experimental Investigation of flexural member of Beam Opening in ...IRJET -  	  Experimental Investigation of flexural member of Beam Opening in ...
IRJET - Experimental Investigation of flexural member of Beam Opening in ...
 
Numerical Investigation of Failure Mechanisms of Cast Iron Watermains
Numerical Investigation of Failure Mechanisms of Cast Iron WatermainsNumerical Investigation of Failure Mechanisms of Cast Iron Watermains
Numerical Investigation of Failure Mechanisms of Cast Iron Watermains
 
Capacity ruytenschildtbrug
Capacity ruytenschildtbrug Capacity ruytenschildtbrug
Capacity ruytenschildtbrug
 
AC Interference Analysis and Mitigation
AC Interference Analysis and MitigationAC Interference Analysis and Mitigation
AC Interference Analysis and Mitigation
 
IRJET- Evaluation of Corrosion Rate in Steel Reinforcement of RCC
IRJET- Evaluation of Corrosion Rate in Steel Reinforcement of RCCIRJET- Evaluation of Corrosion Rate in Steel Reinforcement of RCC
IRJET- Evaluation of Corrosion Rate in Steel Reinforcement of RCC
 
Final Presentation
Final PresentationFinal Presentation
Final Presentation
 
Effects of CO2 impurities on the consequences of pipeline releases – possibil...
Effects of CO2 impurities on the consequences of pipeline releases – possibil...Effects of CO2 impurities on the consequences of pipeline releases – possibil...
Effects of CO2 impurities on the consequences of pipeline releases – possibil...
 
Reconsidering some basic aspects of soil mechanics - Laurie Wesley, Universit...
Reconsidering some basic aspects of soil mechanics - Laurie Wesley, Universit...Reconsidering some basic aspects of soil mechanics - Laurie Wesley, Universit...
Reconsidering some basic aspects of soil mechanics - Laurie Wesley, Universit...
 
Rcs1-chapter3-constitutive-law
Rcs1-chapter3-constitutive-lawRcs1-chapter3-constitutive-law
Rcs1-chapter3-constitutive-law
 
ANALYSIS OF PRE-STRESSED BRIDGE CONSTRUCTION
ANALYSIS OF PRE-STRESSED BRIDGE CONSTRUCTIONANALYSIS OF PRE-STRESSED BRIDGE CONSTRUCTION
ANALYSIS OF PRE-STRESSED BRIDGE CONSTRUCTION
 
reinforced-cement-concrete_prof-aquib.ppt
reinforced-cement-concrete_prof-aquib.pptreinforced-cement-concrete_prof-aquib.ppt
reinforced-cement-concrete_prof-aquib.ppt
 
reinforced-cement-concrete_prof-aquib.ppt
reinforced-cement-concrete_prof-aquib.pptreinforced-cement-concrete_prof-aquib.ppt
reinforced-cement-concrete_prof-aquib.ppt
 
Non destructive test in building construction
Non destructive test in building construction Non destructive test in building construction
Non destructive test in building construction
 
Non destructive test
Non destructive test   Non destructive test
Non destructive test
 
ilovepdf_#تواصل_تطوير المحاضرة رقم 187 أستاذ دكتور / مدحت كمال عبدالله عنوان ...
ilovepdf_#تواصل_تطوير المحاضرة رقم 187 أستاذ دكتور / مدحت كمال عبدالله عنوان ...ilovepdf_#تواصل_تطوير المحاضرة رقم 187 أستاذ دكتور / مدحت كمال عبدالله عنوان ...
ilovepdf_#تواصل_تطوير المحاضرة رقم 187 أستاذ دكتور / مدحت كمال عبدالله عنوان ...
 

More from SMART Infrastructure Facility

SMART Seminar Series: "Cognitive Illusions in Virtual Reality: What do I mean...
SMART Seminar Series: "Cognitive Illusions in Virtual Reality: What do I mean...SMART Seminar Series: "Cognitive Illusions in Virtual Reality: What do I mean...
SMART Seminar Series: "Cognitive Illusions in Virtual Reality: What do I mean...
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Trusted Autonomous Systems as System of Systems". Pres...
SMART Seminar Series: "Trusted Autonomous Systems as System of Systems". Pres...SMART Seminar Series: "Trusted Autonomous Systems as System of Systems". Pres...
SMART Seminar Series: "Trusted Autonomous Systems as System of Systems". Pres...
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "User-centric digital collaboration to build resilient ...
SMART Seminar Series: "User-centric digital collaboration to build resilient ...SMART Seminar Series: "User-centric digital collaboration to build resilient ...
SMART Seminar Series: "User-centric digital collaboration to build resilient ...
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "The Evolution of the Metric System: From Precious Lump...
SMART Seminar Series: "The Evolution of the Metric System: From Precious Lump...SMART Seminar Series: "The Evolution of the Metric System: From Precious Lump...
SMART Seminar Series: "The Evolution of the Metric System: From Precious Lump...
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Using AI and edge computing devices for traffic flow m...
SMART Seminar Series: "Using AI and edge computing devices for traffic flow m...SMART Seminar Series: "Using AI and edge computing devices for traffic flow m...
SMART Seminar Series: "Using AI and edge computing devices for traffic flow m...
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Blockchain and its Applications". Presented by Prof Wi...
SMART Seminar Series: "Blockchain and its Applications". Presented by Prof Wi...SMART Seminar Series: "Blockchain and its Applications". Presented by Prof Wi...
SMART Seminar Series: "Blockchain and its Applications". Presented by Prof Wi...
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "From an IoT cloud based architecture to Edge for dynam...
SMART Seminar Series: "From an IoT cloud based architecture to Edge for dynam...SMART Seminar Series: "From an IoT cloud based architecture to Edge for dynam...
SMART Seminar Series: "From an IoT cloud based architecture to Edge for dynam...
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Is bus bunching serious in Sydney? Preliminary finding...
SMART Seminar Series: "Is bus bunching serious in Sydney? Preliminary finding...SMART Seminar Series: "Is bus bunching serious in Sydney? Preliminary finding...
SMART Seminar Series: "Is bus bunching serious in Sydney? Preliminary finding...
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Keep it SMART, keep it simple! – Challenging complexit...
SMART Seminar Series: "Keep it SMART, keep it simple! – Challenging complexit...SMART Seminar Series: "Keep it SMART, keep it simple! – Challenging complexit...
SMART Seminar Series: "Keep it SMART, keep it simple! – Challenging complexit...
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Deep Learning: Fundamentals and Practice". Presented b...
SMART Seminar Series: "Deep Learning: Fundamentals and Practice". Presented b...SMART Seminar Series: "Deep Learning: Fundamentals and Practice". Presented b...
SMART Seminar Series: "Deep Learning: Fundamentals and Practice". Presented b...
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Infrastructure Resilience: Planning for Future Extreme...
SMART Seminar Series: "Infrastructure Resilience: Planning for Future Extreme...SMART Seminar Series: "Infrastructure Resilience: Planning for Future Extreme...
SMART Seminar Series: "Infrastructure Resilience: Planning for Future Extreme...
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Potential use of drones for infrastructure inspection ...
SMART Seminar Series: "Potential use of drones for infrastructure inspection ...SMART Seminar Series: "Potential use of drones for infrastructure inspection ...
SMART Seminar Series: "Potential use of drones for infrastructure inspection ...
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "A journey in the zoo of Turing patterns: the topology ...
SMART Seminar Series: "A journey in the zoo of Turing patterns: the topology ...SMART Seminar Series: "A journey in the zoo of Turing patterns: the topology ...
SMART Seminar Series: "A journey in the zoo of Turing patterns: the topology ...
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Human behaviour modelling and simulation for crisis ma...
SMART Seminar Series: "Human behaviour modelling and simulation for crisis ma...SMART Seminar Series: "Human behaviour modelling and simulation for crisis ma...
SMART Seminar Series: "Human behaviour modelling and simulation for crisis ma...
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Dealing with uncertainty: With the observer in the loo...
SMART Seminar Series: "Dealing with uncertainty: With the observer in the loo...SMART Seminar Series: "Dealing with uncertainty: With the observer in the loo...
SMART Seminar Series: "Dealing with uncertainty: With the observer in the loo...
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Smart Cities: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly"
SMART Seminar Series: "Smart Cities: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly"SMART Seminar Series: "Smart Cities: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly"
SMART Seminar Series: "Smart Cities: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly"
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "How to improve the order of evolutionary models in age...
SMART Seminar Series: "How to improve the order of evolutionary models in age...SMART Seminar Series: "How to improve the order of evolutionary models in age...
SMART Seminar Series: "How to improve the order of evolutionary models in age...
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "OneM2M – Towards end-to-end interoperability of the IoT"
SMART Seminar Series: "OneM2M – Towards end-to-end interoperability of the IoT"SMART Seminar Series: "OneM2M – Towards end-to-end interoperability of the IoT"
SMART Seminar Series: "OneM2M – Towards end-to-end interoperability of the IoT"
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Blue-Green vs. Grey-Black infrastructure – which is be...
SMART Seminar Series: "Blue-Green vs. Grey-Black infrastructure – which is be...SMART Seminar Series: "Blue-Green vs. Grey-Black infrastructure – which is be...
SMART Seminar Series: "Blue-Green vs. Grey-Black infrastructure – which is be...
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Coastal Infrastructure, Urban Mobility and Vulnerabili...
SMART Seminar Series: "Coastal Infrastructure, Urban Mobility and Vulnerabili...SMART Seminar Series: "Coastal Infrastructure, Urban Mobility and Vulnerabili...
SMART Seminar Series: "Coastal Infrastructure, Urban Mobility and Vulnerabili...
SMART Infrastructure Facility
 

More from SMART Infrastructure Facility (20)

SMART Seminar Series: "Cognitive Illusions in Virtual Reality: What do I mean...
SMART Seminar Series: "Cognitive Illusions in Virtual Reality: What do I mean...SMART Seminar Series: "Cognitive Illusions in Virtual Reality: What do I mean...
SMART Seminar Series: "Cognitive Illusions in Virtual Reality: What do I mean...
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Trusted Autonomous Systems as System of Systems". Pres...
SMART Seminar Series: "Trusted Autonomous Systems as System of Systems". Pres...SMART Seminar Series: "Trusted Autonomous Systems as System of Systems". Pres...
SMART Seminar Series: "Trusted Autonomous Systems as System of Systems". Pres...
 
SMART Seminar Series: "User-centric digital collaboration to build resilient ...
SMART Seminar Series: "User-centric digital collaboration to build resilient ...SMART Seminar Series: "User-centric digital collaboration to build resilient ...
SMART Seminar Series: "User-centric digital collaboration to build resilient ...
 
SMART Seminar Series: "The Evolution of the Metric System: From Precious Lump...
SMART Seminar Series: "The Evolution of the Metric System: From Precious Lump...SMART Seminar Series: "The Evolution of the Metric System: From Precious Lump...
SMART Seminar Series: "The Evolution of the Metric System: From Precious Lump...
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Using AI and edge computing devices for traffic flow m...
SMART Seminar Series: "Using AI and edge computing devices for traffic flow m...SMART Seminar Series: "Using AI and edge computing devices for traffic flow m...
SMART Seminar Series: "Using AI and edge computing devices for traffic flow m...
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Blockchain and its Applications". Presented by Prof Wi...
SMART Seminar Series: "Blockchain and its Applications". Presented by Prof Wi...SMART Seminar Series: "Blockchain and its Applications". Presented by Prof Wi...
SMART Seminar Series: "Blockchain and its Applications". Presented by Prof Wi...
 
SMART Seminar Series: "From an IoT cloud based architecture to Edge for dynam...
SMART Seminar Series: "From an IoT cloud based architecture to Edge for dynam...SMART Seminar Series: "From an IoT cloud based architecture to Edge for dynam...
SMART Seminar Series: "From an IoT cloud based architecture to Edge for dynam...
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Is bus bunching serious in Sydney? Preliminary finding...
SMART Seminar Series: "Is bus bunching serious in Sydney? Preliminary finding...SMART Seminar Series: "Is bus bunching serious in Sydney? Preliminary finding...
SMART Seminar Series: "Is bus bunching serious in Sydney? Preliminary finding...
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Keep it SMART, keep it simple! – Challenging complexit...
SMART Seminar Series: "Keep it SMART, keep it simple! – Challenging complexit...SMART Seminar Series: "Keep it SMART, keep it simple! – Challenging complexit...
SMART Seminar Series: "Keep it SMART, keep it simple! – Challenging complexit...
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Deep Learning: Fundamentals and Practice". Presented b...
SMART Seminar Series: "Deep Learning: Fundamentals and Practice". Presented b...SMART Seminar Series: "Deep Learning: Fundamentals and Practice". Presented b...
SMART Seminar Series: "Deep Learning: Fundamentals and Practice". Presented b...
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Infrastructure Resilience: Planning for Future Extreme...
SMART Seminar Series: "Infrastructure Resilience: Planning for Future Extreme...SMART Seminar Series: "Infrastructure Resilience: Planning for Future Extreme...
SMART Seminar Series: "Infrastructure Resilience: Planning for Future Extreme...
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Potential use of drones for infrastructure inspection ...
SMART Seminar Series: "Potential use of drones for infrastructure inspection ...SMART Seminar Series: "Potential use of drones for infrastructure inspection ...
SMART Seminar Series: "Potential use of drones for infrastructure inspection ...
 
SMART Seminar Series: "A journey in the zoo of Turing patterns: the topology ...
SMART Seminar Series: "A journey in the zoo of Turing patterns: the topology ...SMART Seminar Series: "A journey in the zoo of Turing patterns: the topology ...
SMART Seminar Series: "A journey in the zoo of Turing patterns: the topology ...
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Human behaviour modelling and simulation for crisis ma...
SMART Seminar Series: "Human behaviour modelling and simulation for crisis ma...SMART Seminar Series: "Human behaviour modelling and simulation for crisis ma...
SMART Seminar Series: "Human behaviour modelling and simulation for crisis ma...
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Dealing with uncertainty: With the observer in the loo...
SMART Seminar Series: "Dealing with uncertainty: With the observer in the loo...SMART Seminar Series: "Dealing with uncertainty: With the observer in the loo...
SMART Seminar Series: "Dealing with uncertainty: With the observer in the loo...
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Smart Cities: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly"
SMART Seminar Series: "Smart Cities: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly"SMART Seminar Series: "Smart Cities: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly"
SMART Seminar Series: "Smart Cities: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly"
 
SMART Seminar Series: "How to improve the order of evolutionary models in age...
SMART Seminar Series: "How to improve the order of evolutionary models in age...SMART Seminar Series: "How to improve the order of evolutionary models in age...
SMART Seminar Series: "How to improve the order of evolutionary models in age...
 
SMART Seminar Series: "OneM2M – Towards end-to-end interoperability of the IoT"
SMART Seminar Series: "OneM2M – Towards end-to-end interoperability of the IoT"SMART Seminar Series: "OneM2M – Towards end-to-end interoperability of the IoT"
SMART Seminar Series: "OneM2M – Towards end-to-end interoperability of the IoT"
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Blue-Green vs. Grey-Black infrastructure – which is be...
SMART Seminar Series: "Blue-Green vs. Grey-Black infrastructure – which is be...SMART Seminar Series: "Blue-Green vs. Grey-Black infrastructure – which is be...
SMART Seminar Series: "Blue-Green vs. Grey-Black infrastructure – which is be...
 
SMART Seminar Series: "Coastal Infrastructure, Urban Mobility and Vulnerabili...
SMART Seminar Series: "Coastal Infrastructure, Urban Mobility and Vulnerabili...SMART Seminar Series: "Coastal Infrastructure, Urban Mobility and Vulnerabili...
SMART Seminar Series: "Coastal Infrastructure, Urban Mobility and Vulnerabili...
 

Recently uploaded

CACJapan - GROUP Presentation 1- Wk 4.pdf
CACJapan - GROUP Presentation 1- Wk 4.pdfCACJapan - GROUP Presentation 1- Wk 4.pdf
CACJapan - GROUP Presentation 1- Wk 4.pdf
camakaiclarkmusic
 
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptx
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptxSynthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptx
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptx
Pavel ( NSTU)
 
Guidance_and_Counselling.pdf B.Ed. 4th Semester
Guidance_and_Counselling.pdf B.Ed. 4th SemesterGuidance_and_Counselling.pdf B.Ed. 4th Semester
Guidance_and_Counselling.pdf B.Ed. 4th Semester
Atul Kumar Singh
 
Overview on Edible Vaccine: Pros & Cons with Mechanism
Overview on Edible Vaccine: Pros & Cons with MechanismOverview on Edible Vaccine: Pros & Cons with Mechanism
Overview on Edible Vaccine: Pros & Cons with Mechanism
DeeptiGupta154
 
Natural birth techniques - Mrs.Akanksha Trivedi Rama University
Natural birth techniques - Mrs.Akanksha Trivedi Rama UniversityNatural birth techniques - Mrs.Akanksha Trivedi Rama University
Natural birth techniques - Mrs.Akanksha Trivedi Rama University
Akanksha trivedi rama nursing college kanpur.
 
Lapbook sobre os Regimes Totalitários.pdf
Lapbook sobre os Regimes Totalitários.pdfLapbook sobre os Regimes Totalitários.pdf
Lapbook sobre os Regimes Totalitários.pdf
Jean Carlos Nunes Paixão
 
The approach at University of Liverpool.pptx
The approach at University of Liverpool.pptxThe approach at University of Liverpool.pptx
The approach at University of Liverpool.pptx
Jisc
 
Operation Blue Star - Saka Neela Tara
Operation Blue Star   -  Saka Neela TaraOperation Blue Star   -  Saka Neela Tara
Operation Blue Star - Saka Neela Tara
Balvir Singh
 
Embracing GenAI - A Strategic Imperative
Embracing GenAI - A Strategic ImperativeEmbracing GenAI - A Strategic Imperative
Embracing GenAI - A Strategic Imperative
Peter Windle
 
Biological Screening of Herbal Drugs in detailed.
Biological Screening of Herbal Drugs in detailed.Biological Screening of Herbal Drugs in detailed.
Biological Screening of Herbal Drugs in detailed.
Ashokrao Mane college of Pharmacy Peth-Vadgaon
 
Introduction to AI for Nonprofits with Tapp Network
Introduction to AI for Nonprofits with Tapp NetworkIntroduction to AI for Nonprofits with Tapp Network
Introduction to AI for Nonprofits with Tapp Network
TechSoup
 
Marketing internship report file for MBA
Marketing internship report file for MBAMarketing internship report file for MBA
Marketing internship report file for MBA
gb193092
 
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
Jisc
 
BÀI TẬP BỔ TRỢ TIẾNG ANH GLOBAL SUCCESS LỚP 3 - CẢ NĂM (CÓ FILE NGHE VÀ ĐÁP Á...
BÀI TẬP BỔ TRỢ TIẾNG ANH GLOBAL SUCCESS LỚP 3 - CẢ NĂM (CÓ FILE NGHE VÀ ĐÁP Á...BÀI TẬP BỔ TRỢ TIẾNG ANH GLOBAL SUCCESS LỚP 3 - CẢ NĂM (CÓ FILE NGHE VÀ ĐÁP Á...
BÀI TẬP BỔ TRỢ TIẾNG ANH GLOBAL SUCCESS LỚP 3 - CẢ NĂM (CÓ FILE NGHE VÀ ĐÁP Á...
Nguyen Thanh Tu Collection
 
Supporting (UKRI) OA monographs at Salford.pptx
Supporting (UKRI) OA monographs at Salford.pptxSupporting (UKRI) OA monographs at Salford.pptx
Supporting (UKRI) OA monographs at Salford.pptx
Jisc
 
The Diamond Necklace by Guy De Maupassant.pptx
The Diamond Necklace by Guy De Maupassant.pptxThe Diamond Necklace by Guy De Maupassant.pptx
The Diamond Necklace by Guy De Maupassant.pptx
DhatriParmar
 
Chapter 3 - Islamic Banking Products and Services.pptx
Chapter 3 - Islamic Banking Products and Services.pptxChapter 3 - Islamic Banking Products and Services.pptx
Chapter 3 - Islamic Banking Products and Services.pptx
Mohd Adib Abd Muin, Senior Lecturer at Universiti Utara Malaysia
 
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17
Celine George
 
Chapter -12, Antibiotics (One Page Notes).pdf
Chapter -12, Antibiotics (One Page Notes).pdfChapter -12, Antibiotics (One Page Notes).pdf
Chapter -12, Antibiotics (One Page Notes).pdf
Kartik Tiwari
 
Digital Tools and AI for Teaching Learning and Research
Digital Tools and AI for Teaching Learning and ResearchDigital Tools and AI for Teaching Learning and Research
Digital Tools and AI for Teaching Learning and Research
Vikramjit Singh
 

Recently uploaded (20)

CACJapan - GROUP Presentation 1- Wk 4.pdf
CACJapan - GROUP Presentation 1- Wk 4.pdfCACJapan - GROUP Presentation 1- Wk 4.pdf
CACJapan - GROUP Presentation 1- Wk 4.pdf
 
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptx
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptxSynthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptx
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptx
 
Guidance_and_Counselling.pdf B.Ed. 4th Semester
Guidance_and_Counselling.pdf B.Ed. 4th SemesterGuidance_and_Counselling.pdf B.Ed. 4th Semester
Guidance_and_Counselling.pdf B.Ed. 4th Semester
 
Overview on Edible Vaccine: Pros & Cons with Mechanism
Overview on Edible Vaccine: Pros & Cons with MechanismOverview on Edible Vaccine: Pros & Cons with Mechanism
Overview on Edible Vaccine: Pros & Cons with Mechanism
 
Natural birth techniques - Mrs.Akanksha Trivedi Rama University
Natural birth techniques - Mrs.Akanksha Trivedi Rama UniversityNatural birth techniques - Mrs.Akanksha Trivedi Rama University
Natural birth techniques - Mrs.Akanksha Trivedi Rama University
 
Lapbook sobre os Regimes Totalitários.pdf
Lapbook sobre os Regimes Totalitários.pdfLapbook sobre os Regimes Totalitários.pdf
Lapbook sobre os Regimes Totalitários.pdf
 
The approach at University of Liverpool.pptx
The approach at University of Liverpool.pptxThe approach at University of Liverpool.pptx
The approach at University of Liverpool.pptx
 
Operation Blue Star - Saka Neela Tara
Operation Blue Star   -  Saka Neela TaraOperation Blue Star   -  Saka Neela Tara
Operation Blue Star - Saka Neela Tara
 
Embracing GenAI - A Strategic Imperative
Embracing GenAI - A Strategic ImperativeEmbracing GenAI - A Strategic Imperative
Embracing GenAI - A Strategic Imperative
 
Biological Screening of Herbal Drugs in detailed.
Biological Screening of Herbal Drugs in detailed.Biological Screening of Herbal Drugs in detailed.
Biological Screening of Herbal Drugs in detailed.
 
Introduction to AI for Nonprofits with Tapp Network
Introduction to AI for Nonprofits with Tapp NetworkIntroduction to AI for Nonprofits with Tapp Network
Introduction to AI for Nonprofits with Tapp Network
 
Marketing internship report file for MBA
Marketing internship report file for MBAMarketing internship report file for MBA
Marketing internship report file for MBA
 
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
 
BÀI TẬP BỔ TRỢ TIẾNG ANH GLOBAL SUCCESS LỚP 3 - CẢ NĂM (CÓ FILE NGHE VÀ ĐÁP Á...
BÀI TẬP BỔ TRỢ TIẾNG ANH GLOBAL SUCCESS LỚP 3 - CẢ NĂM (CÓ FILE NGHE VÀ ĐÁP Á...BÀI TẬP BỔ TRỢ TIẾNG ANH GLOBAL SUCCESS LỚP 3 - CẢ NĂM (CÓ FILE NGHE VÀ ĐÁP Á...
BÀI TẬP BỔ TRỢ TIẾNG ANH GLOBAL SUCCESS LỚP 3 - CẢ NĂM (CÓ FILE NGHE VÀ ĐÁP Á...
 
Supporting (UKRI) OA monographs at Salford.pptx
Supporting (UKRI) OA monographs at Salford.pptxSupporting (UKRI) OA monographs at Salford.pptx
Supporting (UKRI) OA monographs at Salford.pptx
 
The Diamond Necklace by Guy De Maupassant.pptx
The Diamond Necklace by Guy De Maupassant.pptxThe Diamond Necklace by Guy De Maupassant.pptx
The Diamond Necklace by Guy De Maupassant.pptx
 
Chapter 3 - Islamic Banking Products and Services.pptx
Chapter 3 - Islamic Banking Products and Services.pptxChapter 3 - Islamic Banking Products and Services.pptx
Chapter 3 - Islamic Banking Products and Services.pptx
 
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17
 
Chapter -12, Antibiotics (One Page Notes).pdf
Chapter -12, Antibiotics (One Page Notes).pdfChapter -12, Antibiotics (One Page Notes).pdf
Chapter -12, Antibiotics (One Page Notes).pdf
 
Digital Tools and AI for Teaching Learning and Research
Digital Tools and AI for Teaching Learning and ResearchDigital Tools and AI for Teaching Learning and Research
Digital Tools and AI for Teaching Learning and Research
 

SMART Seminar Series: "Risk-based bridge assessment under changing load-demand and environmental conditions". Presented by Dr Boulent Imam

  • 1. Risk-based Bridge Assessment Under Changing Load-Demand and Environmental Conditions Dr Boulent Imam Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Surrey b.imam@surrey.ac.uk SMART Seminar Series
  • 2. • Introduction on metallic railway bridges • Fatigue analysis of riveted railway bridges - Load modelling (current, past & future) - Finite element analysis - Probabilistic/reliability analysis • Long-term deterioration of metallic bridges - Long-term material deterioration - Impact of changing environmental conditions • Scour analysis of bridges - Climate change effects Contents
  • 3. Introduction • Degradation through corrosion and fatigue • Large number of aged railway bridges in UK (> 15,000) and Europe (> 30,000) • Heavily utilised networks – replacement is impossible • Improved assessment methods & repair/strengthening techniques are sought • Infinite life assets! • Meeting asset management objectives for next generation of transport infrastructure
  • 4. 1840 1848 Railway network in the UK Introduction
  • 10. Fatigue analysis of riveted railway bridges
  • 11. Metallic railway bridges Age <20 yrs 20-50 yrs 50-100 yrs >100 yrs Material Cast Iron Wrought Iron Steel Span <10 m 10-40 m >40 m Total number in UK: 16000
  • 12. Motivation of research • Riveted bridges may be close to or have exceeded their fatigue lives • Able to cope with current load demands • Unusual material – wrought iron • Cracks have been discovered in riveted connections (in many cases hidden) • More reliable fatigue assessment methodology • Better (optimal) decision making
  • 16. Fatigue analysis Global bridge modelling vs. Local connection modelling
  • 17. Fatigue analysis 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 S7-S5 S8-S6 S3-S5 S4-S6 S6-S8 S5-S7 S7-S9 S8-S10 S3-S1 S6-S4 S4-S2 S5-S3 S2 S1 S10 S9 Totalfatiguedamage Connection Modified Class B Class WI Class D Fatigue ranking of connections (global vs. local) 0.0E+00 5.0E-05 1.0E-04 1.5E-04 2.0E-04 2.5E-04 3.0E-04 3.5E-04 4.0E-04 Hole 4 Hole 5 Hole 1 Hole 2 Angle Fillet Hole 3 Rivet 3 Rivet 2 Rivet 1 Rivet 5 Rivet 4 Singletrainfatiguedamage Connection region 50 MPa 100 MPa 150 MPa 200 MPa Global Local Identify most critical connections in bridge Identify most critical regions in connection itself Inspection planning
  • 19. Past, present and future … • Understand the past • Evaluate the present • Predict the future Stress TimePresent Past Future TimePresent Accumulated damage ? Future Cumulative fatigue damage Failure ? Remaining life
  • 20. Railway loading (past) Freight (1900-1940) Freight (1940-1970) Passenger (1920-1970) Suburban (1900-1970)Passenger (1900-1920)
  • 22. Probabilistic Fatigue Life Estimates for Riveted Railway Bridges B.M. Imam, T.D. Righiniotis, M.K. Chryssanthopoulos & B. Bell Railway loading -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Stress(MPa) Load step Engine 1st wagon
  • 24. Fatigue damage Cumulative Damage of Connections S7-S5 & S8-S6 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 Year CumulativeDamage S7-S5 (Class B) S8-S6 (Class B) S7-S5 (Class D) S8-S6 (Class D) S7-S5 (Class WI) S8-S6 (Class WI) 80 yrs 85 yrs 120 yrs 128 yrs 289 yrs 303 yrs Modified Class B Class WI Class D
  • 25. Fatigue damage 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 CumulativeDamage Year Cumulative damage of connection S7-S5 (Class WI) No DAF Byers EC1 Tobias & Foutch D23 Network Rail 21-31 yrs 120 yrs No DAF With DAF
  • 27. Probabilistic fatigue analysis •Loading Uncertainties Dynamic amplification factor (DAF) Annual train frequency (fti ) •Material Uncertainties S-N curve (fatigue resistance behaviour) Damage index Δ in Miner’s sum (fatigue failure limit) •Model Uncertainties Factor  accounting for the differences between measured and calculated stresses in steel bridges
  • 28. 0.0E+00 1.0E+05 2.0E+05 3.0E+05 4.0E+05 5.0E+05 6.0E+05 7.0E+05 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 Stress range (MPa) Numberofappliedcycles Modified Class B fatigue limit Class WI fatigue limit Class D fatigue limit Mean = 5.79 MPa CoV = 1.09 Weibull distribution parameters η=6.02 , β=1.0 0.0E+00 1.0E+05 2.0E+05 3.0E+05 4.0E+05 5.0E+05 6.0E+05 7.0E+05 8.0E+05 9.0E+05 1.0E+06 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 Stress range (MPa) Numberofappliedcycles Modified Class B fatigue limit Class WI fatigue limit Class D fatigue limit Mean = 6.75 MPa CoV = 0.84 Weibull distribution parameters η=5.05 , β=0.98 0.0E+00 1.0E+05 2.0E+05 3.0E+05 4.0E+05 5.0E+05 6.0E+05 7.0E+05 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 Stress range (MPa) Numberofappliedcycles Modified Class B fatigue limit Class WI fatigue limit Class D fatigue limit Mean = 8.91 MPa CoV = 0.64 Weibull distribution parameters η=4.35 , β=0.90 0.0E+00 5.0E+04 1.0E+05 1.5E+05 2.0E+05 2.5E+05 3.0E+05 3.5E+05 4.0E+05 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 Stress range (MPa) Numberofappliedcycles Modified Class B fatigue limit Class WI fatigue limit Class D fatigue limit Mean = 12.6 MPa CoV = 0.75 Weibull distribution parameters η=15.0 , β=1.60 Period 1900-1920 Probabilistic fatigue analysis Period 1920-1940 Period 1940-1970 Period 1970-
  • 29. Probabilistic fatigue analysis 0.000001 0.00001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 ProbabilityoffailurePf Time after 2005 (years) μ = 685 years sdev = 411 years μ = 515 years sdev = 304 years No load evolution Increase in train frequencies Increase in train frequencies & axle weights μ = 242 years sdev = 133 years 6,000 similar bridges 100,000 similar connections Very high standard deviations Intensified inspection, monitoring and repair plans for old bridges
  • 33. Refined Assessment • Influence of: • Rivet clamping force • Friction between connection elements • Most highly stressed parts of the connection itself • Different damage scenarios (cracking, loss of rivet clamping force, loss of rivets)
  • 34. Refined Assessment 0 1 2 3 4 Hole 1 Hole 2 Hole 3 Hole 4 Hole 5 Rivet 1 Rivet 2 Rivet 3 Rivet 4 Rivet 5 Angle Fillet Dl/Dg 100 MPa 200 MPa Global model damage >100yrs >100yrs >100yrs >100yrs >100yrs >150yrs >150yrs >150yrs 7yrs 12yrs 81yrs 30yrs 84yrs 39yrs 73yrs 73yrs
  • 39. Main findings • Inner stringer-to-cross-girder connections are the most fatigue critical • Significant increase in the damage accumulation rate during the last few decades • Very high standard deviations in fatigue life → high uncertainty in fatigue evaluation procedures → improvement of assessment procedures unlikely → importance of inspection and management plans • Some connections approaching the end of their service life → given their very large number in the bridge network → adopting timely management of repairs and replacement • Traditional code methods can underestimate fatigue damage in some cases by a factor of 3
  • 41. 41 Material corrosion Level Description Comments 1 Empirical models. Effect of all influencing factors taken into account through model constants Model coefficients are associated with very high uncertainty. Statistical properties may not be reliable due to inhomogeneous samples. Questionable model transferability. 2 Empirical models which relate the rate of corrosion to specific exposure variables, also known as dose response functions (DRF). Reliance on spatial data for atmospheric pollutants and climatic parameters. Potentially suitable for probabilistic analysis, though uncertainty modelling largely untested. 3 Theoretical models involving simulation techniques to predict airflow patterns and pollutant mass transfer on exposed surfaces. Heavy reliance on modelling assumptions. Complex uncertainty modelling, currently lack of input data at desired granularity level. B AttC )(    0T2 1 SOTOW Cl 1 1 D F H J TB C t At e C E G                  Level 1: Level 2:
  • 42. 42 Material corrosion Corrosivity category Description Corrosion rates 1 (mm/year) C1 Very low corrosivity: Dry or cold zone, atmospheric environment with very low pollution and time of wetness, e.g. certain deserts, Central Arctic/Antarctica. ≤ 0.0013 C2 Low corrosivity: Temperate zone, atmospheric environment with low pollution (SO2 < 5 μg/m3 ), e.g. rural areas, small towns. Dry or cold zone, atmospheric environment with short time of wetness, e.g. deserts, subarctic areas. 0.0013 < A ≤ 0.025 C3 Medium corrosivity: Temperate zone, atmospheric environment with medium pollution (SO2: 5 μg/m2 to 30 μg/m3 ) or some effect of chlorides, e.g. urban areas, coastal areas with low deposition of chlorides. Subtropical and tropical zone, atmosphere with low pollution. 0.025 < A ≤ 0.050 C4 High corrosivity: Temperate zone, atmospheric environment with high pollution (SO2: 30 μg/m3 to 90 μg/m3 ) or substantial effect of chlorides, e.g. polluted urban areas, industrial areas, coastal areas without spray of salt water or, exposure to effect of de-icing salts. Subtropical and tropical zone, atmosphere with medium pollution. 0.050 < A ≤ 0.080 C5 Very high corrosivity: Temperate and subtropical zone, atmospheric environment with very high pollution (SO2: 90 μg/m3 to 250 μg/m3 ) and/or significant effect of chlorides, e.g. industrial areas, coastal areas, sheltered positions on coastline. 0.080 < A ≤ 0.200 CX Extreme corrosivity: Subtropical and tropical zone (very high time of wetness), atmospheric environment with high SO2 pollution (higher than 250 μg/m3 ) including accompanying and production factors and/or strong effect of chlorides, e.g. extreme industrial areas, coastal and offshore areas, occasional contact with salt spray. 0.200 < A ≤ 0.700 Notes: 1 Corrosion rates correspond to the first year of exposure. 1
  • 43. Changing environmental conditions 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Air temperature (oC) PDF UKCP09 simulation: period 2010-2039 Normal fit (mean = 11.67, SD = 0.52) UKCP09 simulation: period 2070-2099 Normal fit (mean = 13.08, SD = 0.95) 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Air temperature (oC) PDF UKCP09 simulation: period 2010-2039 Normal fit (mean = 11.65, SD = 0.51) UKCP09 simulation: period 2070-2099 Normal fit (mean = 14.68, SD = 1.33) Low emissions scenario High emissions scenario UKCP09 – UK Climate Projections Database
  • 44. Changing environmental conditions 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Time (years) Corrosionloss(mm) TOW = 5500h/year TOW = 4000h/year TOW = 2500h/year SO2 = 60 μg/m3 Cl = 0 mg/m2 /day T = 12 o C 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Time (years) Corrosionloss(mm) Cl = 300 mg/m2/day Cl = 60 mg/m2/day Cl = 0 mg/m2/day SO2 = 60 μg/m3 TOW = 4000 h/year T = 12 o C 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Time (years) Corrosionloss(mm) Sulphur dioxide = 250 μg/m3 Sulphur dioxide = 90 μg/m3 Sulphur dioxide = 30 μg/m3 Cl = 0 mg/m2 /day TOW = 4000 h/year T = 12 o C 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Time (years) Corrosionloss(mm) T = 17 oC T = 15 oC T = 12 oC SO2 = 60 μg/m3 Cl = 60 mg/m2 /day TOW = 4000 h/year Time-of- wetness (TOW) Cl deposition rate SO2 concentration Temperature
  • 45. Changing exposure conditions 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Corrosionloss(mm) Time (years) Constant exposure conditions With sharp SO2 change at t=20 years with gradual SO2 change over a 20-year period
  • 47. Material corrosion – Probability of failure Effect of temperature 1.0E-05 1.0E-04 1.0E-03 1.0E-02 1.0E-01 2012 2032 2052 2072 2092 Year Cumulativeprobabilityd offlexuralfailure,pf(0,t) S2 S3 S4 S5 1.0E-05 1.0E-04 1.0E-03 1.0E-02 1.0E-01 1.0E+00 2012 2032 2052 2072 2092 Year Cumulativeprobabilityd offlexuralfailure,pf(0,t) S1 S5 S6 S7 1.0E-05 1.0E-04 1.0E-03 1.0E-02 1.0E-01 2012 2032 2052 2072 2092 Year Cumulativeprobabilityofd flexuralfailure,pf(0,t) S5 S8 Effect of SO2 Effect of TOW
  • 48. Material corrosion - Risk Risk of failure = probability of failure × consequences of failure    tCtptR ff )( 1.0E+02 1.0E+03 1.0E+04 1.0E+05 1.0E+06 1.0E+07 2012 2032 2052 2072 2092 Year Time-dependentrisk(GBP,£) S1 S5 S6 S7
  • 49. Network-based risk Consequences Examples Human Fatalities Injuries Economic Reconstruction cost Repair costs Loss of functionality/downtime Traffic delay / re-routing costs ….. Environmental CO2 Emissions Energy use Pollutant releases Societal Loss of reputation / public confidence Changes in professional practice Loss of business Often practical to express all consequences in terms of monetary units
  • 50. Consequences of failure • System boundaries – Structural domain (structural system itself) – Spatial domain (transportation network) • Extent of spatial domain – Single route with diversions – Wider network (redundancy) • Further layers can be added (environment, society, …)
  • 51. Human consequences • Fatalities and / or injuries • Highly variable in terms of predicting & valuing • Valuation of human life - UK DfT: £1.43 million for road fatalities (2005 prices) - EU: €1.5 million for road fatalities - RSSB: £3.46 million for rail fatalities (2003 prices) - HSE: £1 million for fatality (2001 prices) • Encompass direct human and economic loss i.e. loss of output, medical costs, amount to reflect pain & grief
  • 52. Economic consequences • Reconstruction time: - highway bridges: mean=230 days, st.dev.=110 days - railway bridges: mean=110 days, st.dev.=73 days • These can be used to estimate traffic delay costs • Debris clean up costs: - transportation of failed material - number of trucks, capacities, distance to disposal site, fuel consumption
  • 53. Economic consequences • UK Highways Agency: - £9.30/hour (2002 prices) for average vehicle • U.S. Department of Transportation - $8.90/person-hour for local travel - $12.20/person-hour for intercity travel (in 1997 prices) - $16.50/person-hour for trucks • EU countries (in 1998 prices) Passenger Transport Freight Transport Car Business: €21.00/person-hour Commuting/Private: €6.00/person-hour Leisure/Holiday: €4.00/person-hour Light Goods Vehicle: €40.0/vehicle-hour Light Goods Vehicle: €43.0/vehicle-hour Interurban Rail Business: €21.00/person-hour Commuting/Private: €6.40/person-hour Leisure/Holiday: €3.20/person-hour Full train load (950 tonnes): €725.0/tonne-hour Wagon load (40 tonnes): €30.0/tonne-hour Average per tonne: €0.76/tonne-hour
  • 54. Economic consequences • Traffic management costs in case of bridge repairs: - over or under the bridge - selection of scheme depends on traffic volume and road type Carriageway closure / full contraflow One-lane closure Two-lane closure Motorway £850 (1 km TM scheme) £350 £450 £1250 (3 km TM scheme) Dual carriageway £500 £350 £450 Single carriageway £800 (traffic signal control management) £300
  • 55. Economic consequences • Consequences on business • Disruption of normal business activities • Delays on customers, deliveries, suppliers • Loss of business, increased production costs etc. • Economic expertise is required
  • 56. Economic consequences • Infrastructure interdependencies - bridges can be part of electricity, telephone, water, gas networks
  • 57. Environmental consequences • Carbon emissions from production of bridge materials Material Carbon emitted Steel 1820 Kg CO2/te Cement 800 Kg CO2/te Reinforced Concrete 260-450 Kg CO2/te Asphalt 46 Kg CO2/te
  • 58. Environmental consequences • Emissions from traffic related sources Vehicle type CO2 emissions Petrol car 0.1730-0.2994 kg CO2 / passenger km Diesel car 0.1452-0.2455 kg CO2 / passenger km Hybrid car 0.1191-0.2173 kg CO2 / passenger km Light commercial van (petrol) 0.1941-0.2558 kg CO2 / vehicle km Light commercial van (diesel) 0.1571-0.2691 kg CO2 / vehicle km Heavy goods vehicle (diesel) 0.5276-1.163 kg CO2 / vehicle km Rail (passenger) 0.05340 kg CO2 / vehicle km Rail (freight) 0.02850 kg CO2 / tonne km
  • 59. Environmental consequences • Air / Noise pollution • Number of affected households • PM10 pollution; NOx pollution • ~ €135/household/1μg/m³ for PM10 • ~ €1,300/tonne for NOx • Different noise severity levels • €40/household for 50 decibels • €165/household for 75 decibels.
  • 60. Bridge failure consequences Consequence type Costs (€ millions) Percentage (%) Fatality/Casualty costs €393.8 28.7 Traffic delay/ Detour costs €844.3 61.5 CO2 emission costs €7.2 0.52 Noise pollution costs €5.4 0.39 Air quality costs €59.8 4.36 Traffic management costs €0.32 0.02 Reconstruction costs €62.0 4.52 Total Costs €1,372.8 100.0
  • 61. Scour Analysis of Bridges
  • 62. Bridge scour • Bridge scour is the most common cause for bridge failure! • Most prediction methods are empirical • Sources of uncertainty  River/flow characteristics  Effect of changing environmental conditions (climate change)  Unknown foundation depths  Empirical models • Framework for scour reliability assessment under changing conditions
  • 65. Low flow Normal flow Extreme flow More record extreme flow Statistical variability of climate change Bridge scour & Climate change
  • 66. • Scour assessment based on max annual flow, Q, with return period T=2 years • Q obtained from annual maxima series of pooling group flood data (FEH) • Expected annual flow best described by Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution • Flow events in different years assumed to be independent • Parametric study to quantify changing conditions through changes in distribution parameters Bridge scour & Climate change
  • 67. Random variables Variables Mean COV Distribution Reference River Width B (m) 65 0.05 Normal Assumed Streambed conditions (K3) 1.1 0.05 Uniform NCHRP (2003) Bed material size (K4) 1.0 - Deterministic Assumed Slope s 0.0032 0.05 Lognormal Assumed Manning’s coefficient n 0.035 0.28 Lognormal NCHRP (2003) Bridge piers Foundation depth DF (m) 4.5 - Deterministic Assumed Pier nose shape (K1) 1.0 - Deterministic Assumed Angle of attack (K2) 1.0 - Deterministic Assumed Pier width, D (m) 2 0.05 Normal Assumed Scour eqn. Modelling uncertainty, λsc 0.55 0.52 Normal/ lognormal NCHRP (2003) Bridge scour – Case Study
  • 68. Parametric analyses: 20%, 40% and 60% increases over a 60-year period A: Annual; C: Cumulative probabilities of failure Effect of river flow characteristics Bridge scour – Case Study
  • 69. Effect of foundation depth Bridge scour – Case Study
  • 70. Effect of scour modelling uncertainty (FD = 5m) Bridge scour – Case Study
  • 71. Effect of asset data uncertainties Bridge scour – Case Study
  • 72. Concluding remarks • Better understanding of fatigue and deterioration – more effective asset management • Still a lot to learn from the first infrastructure asset population – invaluable to next generation of structures • Utilising the best out of our assets’ service • Environmental sensitivity becoming more and more important • Climate change uncertainty is often quoted as a major barrier for adaptation. However, in some cases be overshadowed by other modelling and asset uncertainties, which can be reduced • Understanding uncertainties and variabilities is key to effective risk assessment
  • 73. Key publications • Imam B.M., Righiniotis T.D., Chryssanthopoulos M.K. (2007). Numerical modelling of riveted railway bridge connections for fatigue evaluation. Engineering Structures, 29(11): 3071-3081. • Imam B.M., Righiniotis T.D., Chryssanthopoulos M.K. (2008). Probabilistic fatigue evaluation of riveted railway bridges. Journal of Bridge Engineering (ASCE), 13(3): 237-244. • Righiniotis T.D., Imam B.M., Chryssanthopoulos M.K. (2008). Fatigue analysis of riveted railway bridge connections using the theory of critical distances. Engineering Structures, 30(10): 2707-2715. • Imam B.M., Righiniotis T.D. (2010). Fatigue evaluation of riveted railway bridges through global and local analysis. Journal of Constructional Steel Research, 66(11): 1411-1421. • Imam B.M., Chryssanthopoulos M.K, Frangopol D.M. (2012). Fatigue system reliability analysis of riveted railway bridge connections. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 8(10), 967-984. • Imam B.M., Chryssanthopoulos M.K. (2012). Causes and consequences of metallic bridge failures. Structural Engineering International, 22(1): 93-98. • Kumar P., Imam B.M. (2013). Footprints of air pollution and changing environment on the sustainability of built infrastructure. Science of the Total Environment, 444, 85-101. • Kallias A.N., Imam B. (2015). Probabilistic Assessment of Local Scour in Bridge Piers under Changing Environmental Conditions. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 12(9): 1228- 1241. • Kallias A.N., Imam B.M., Chryssanthopoulos M.K. (2016). Performance profiles of metallic bridges subject to coating degradation and atmospheric corrosion, Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 440-453. • Dikanksi H., Hagen-Zanker A., Imam B., Avery K. (2017). Climate change impacts on railway structures: bridge scour. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE) Journal – Engineering Sustainability, 170(5): 237-248. • Dikanski H., Imam B., Hagen-Zanker A. (2018). Effects of uncertain stock data on the assessment of climate change risks: A case study of bridge scour in the UK. Structural Safety, 71: 1-12