1. Infrastructure to 2030: opportunities and challenges by Pierre-Alain Schieb Counsellor, Head of OECD Futures Projects April 14th 2010 Mexico City

3. Examples of OECD/IFP projects Infrastructure 2006 Space 2005 Infrastructure 2007 Space 2004 © OECD International Futures Programme

5. Italy Blackout (2003) © OECD International Futures Programme

6. Rail congestion in Europe (2006) http://www.cemt.org/online/Congestion07/UIC.pdf

16. Estimated average annual world infrastructure investment requirements 2003-2030 (additions and renewal) In USD Bn and as a percentage of world GDP Table 1 p 29 - Infrastructure to 2030: Telecom, Land Transport, Water and Electricity (2006) 1. Estimates apply to the years 2005, 2015 and 2025. 2. Transmission and distribution only. 3. Only OECD countries, Russia, China, India and Brazil are considered here. Type of infrastructure 2000-10 Approx. % of world GDP 2010-20 Approx. % of world GDP 2020-30 Approx. % of world GDP Road 220 0.38 245 0.32 292 0.29 Rail 49 0.09 54 0.07 58 0.06 Telecoms 1 654 1.14 646 0.85 171 0.17 Electricity 2 127 0.22 180 0.24 241 0.24 Water 1,3 576 1.01 772 1.01 1 037 1.03

18. In OECD countries, public capital investment as a share of total government expenditure is declining Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 80 database, November 2006.

20. Source : Intelligent Infrastrucutre Futures / The Scenarios – Towards 2055 Office of Science and Technology © OECD International Futures Programme

21. Extremes of exchanges in infrastructure changes with telecommunications substitutions Infrastructure element Investment increase or decrease First estimate % change increase (+ve) or decrease (-ve) Road transport infrastructure -- -5 to -10% Air travel (business) infrastructure -- -5 to 10% Fuel oil – car, air transport - -5% Health care -- -10% Education - or same -5 to -10% Justice --- -20% Electricity supply + +5% Gas supply + +5% Heating oil + +5% Water supply + +5% Sanitation + +5%

22. © OECD International Futures Programme

32. TEU Pre-Crisis Forecasts vs actual growth rates © OECD International Futures Programme

33. Emerging global maritime routes and markets Source: J-P Rodrigue (2010) “Maritime Transportation Drivers for the Shipping and Port industries, ITF preparatory Session , Jan 2010, Paris Increased volumes could reinforce circum equatorial route & trans-shipment

34. Higher volume trans-shipment locations Source: Notteboom, T. and J-P Rodrigue (2010) “Foreland-Based Regionalization: Integrating Intermediate Hubs with Port Hinterlands”, Research in Transportation Economics. Larger container vessels and container volumes will change service patterns – but how?

35. Increasing vessel sizes - Largest available container ships Source: Notteboom, T. and J-P Rodrigue (2009) “The Future of Containerization: Perspectives from Maritime and Inland Freight Distribution”, Geojournal, Vol. 74, No. 1, pp. 7-22. Increased number of large capacity liners to be delivered over next few years

36. Pre-Crisis Container Traffic 2007 (Millions of TEUs)

37. Asia – USA Container Traffic, 2005 Source: Mexico’s Infrastructure Program 2007-12 - Vice Minister T &C PPT, Sept 2008

38. Port Container Handling Projections Central America, Mexico total & 3 large ports Source: Drewry Container Market 2009/10: Annual Review and Forecast; UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport, 2009 Container volumes fell quickly – and could grow quite quickly as well

39. Quality of Port Infrastructure Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2009-10, World Economic Forum, 2009

40. Pre-Crisis Port Development plans Source: Mexico’s Infrastructure Program 2007-12 - Vice Minister T &C PPT, Sept 2008