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7
China’s Urbanization in the International Context
Is China an Outlier?
Jinhua Zhao
Department of Urban Studies and Planning, MIT
Why do we care about China?
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/NPP/news/earth-at-night.html#.UicfGGSgm3U
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/NPP/news/earth-at-night.html#.UicfGGSgm3U
Theory of Behavior Choice
9
Perceptions
Preferences
Process Choices
Memory
Information
Reality
Time and
Money
Constraints
Experiences
History (space and time)
7
China’s Urbanization
Immense, Rapid and Out of Sync
China Hype and China Bashing
• GDP: 9.5% per year for 30 years
• Urbanize 370m people without
slum
• Raise 500 millions of people out
of poor
• Road, HSR, infrastructure and
housing
• Biggest CO2 emitter
• Severe pollutions
• Political reform
• Hukou system
• Land based finance
• Inequality
– urban – rural; east – west
– from one extreme to another
extreme
11
The old buildings under the high-rises are destined for demolition in the near future.

Justin Jin for The New York Times
Visitors from the countryside amid a giant project under construction in Chongqing. In southwestern China,
away from the coast, it is the engine of China’s inland economic development.

Justin Jin for The New York Times
Minxin Jiayuan is a flagship low-income housing project in Chongqing. Vast sums of money will be needed to pay
for schooling, health care and retirement programs for the now landless farmers.

Justin Jin for The New York Times
Li Rui, 60, scavenged his former village for building materials in Liaocheng. Mr. Li was a farmer until three years
ago, when the local government razed his village for an urban development zone.

Justin Jin for The New York Times
A rural migrant in a garment factory on the outskirts of Chongqing. Skeptics say the government’s headlong rush
to urbanize is driven by a vision of modernity that has failed elsewhere.

Justin Jin for The New York Times
Urbanization
Anything good about China?
Anything bad about China?
Question #1
Land Reform
Housing market
High Speed Rail
Urban Finance
Cultural Heritage
Beijing Smog
Real Estate Development
Big Data
Spatial Equity
Urban Form
Aging Society
Migrant workers
Car Love Affair
Infrastructure
Affordable housing
Urban vs. Region
Governance
Urban Agglomeration
Energy Efficiency
Connections
Immense
Rapid
Out of Sync
Urbanization in China
Urban
190m
1980
Rural
863m
Urban
690m
2011
Rural
656m
Natural Growth
Natural Growth
~350m
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York 2010
1.05 Billion
18%
1.35 Billion
51%
Urban
~1,000m
Rural
~500m
2040
Natural Growth
Natural Growth
~350m
1.5 Billion
67%
21
1990
2010
Shanghai
Rebuild all American cities in 30 years
• infrastructure
• services
• institutions
• …
Immense
Rapid
Out of Sync
What do we mean by
“urbanization”?
Question #2
Liyan Xu and Jinhua Zhao
Multiple Interpretations
Built environment
Administration
Economy
Welfare
Lifestyle
Political
Cultural
Noosphere
Source: Dewey (1960): 40 key words in definitions of urbanism by 18 authors
The	Typology	of	Urban	Definition	Methods	(in	WUP)
• Different	countries	have	very	different	definitions	of	“urban”.	
– Administrative(118/231	instances)	
• “Designated	urban	areas”:	China,	Brazil	
– Demographic	(107/231	instances)	
• Population	/	density:	US,	Canada,	India	
– Economic	(33/231	instances)	
• Employment	structure:	Russia,	Japan	
– Functional	Urban(43/231	instances)	
• Physical	(e.g.	infrastructure	conditions:	India,	Indonesia,	Philippines;	about	30	instances)	
• Social	(e.g.	public	service	conditions:	Honduras,	Cambodia;	about	10	instances)	
• Cultural	(e.g.	“sense	of	community”:	Bangladesh;	less	than	10	instances)
The Typology of Urban Definition Methods
Urban Definition Methods and Income Levels of Countries across the World
(2010) Source: UN 2011; World Bank 2011
Measurement	Issues	of	the	Urban	Concept:	

Inter-Country	Differences	in	Urban	Definition	Methods
The	population	threshold	for	an	urbanized	area:	
• United	States:	2,500	
• United	Kingdom:	10,000	
• Japan:	50,000	
• Norway:	200
Country Urbanization	
Level	(2010)
Administrative Demographic Physical Economic Social
Population Population	
Density
Brazil 84% 1 	 	 	 	 	
United	States 81% 	 1 1 	 	 	
Mexico 78% 	 1 	 	 	 	
Cuba 77% 	 1 	 1 	 1
Russia 74% 1 1 	 	 1 	
China 49% 1 1 1 1 1 	
India 31% 1 1 1 	 1 	
Afghanistan 25% 1 	 	 	 	 	
Ethiopia 17% 	 1 	 	 	 	
Source: UN 2011
China’s Urbanization is >70% 

if measured by the US standard
“Noosphere”
Sphere of Human Thoughts
both at the top and at the bottom
Measurement
Are different aspects of
urbanization developing in
harmony?
Question #3
Liyan Xu and Jinhua Zhao
A	Multi-dimensional	Measurement	System	for	
Urbanization	Conditions
Dimension	of	Urban	
Characteristics
Proxy	for	Urbanization	Levels
Specific	Indicators	for	Urbanization	
Levels
Demographic Degree	of	population	concentration
Percentage	of	population	living	in	
settlements	of	a	certain	scale	and	
above
Economic
Significance	of	non-agriculture	
employment
Percentage	of	non-agriculture	
employment
Physical
Conditions	of	physical	infrastructure	
provision
Percentage	of	roads	paved
Social Conditions	of	public	service	provision
Percentage	of	population	covered	
by	urban-quality	healthcare	service
Cultural Maturity	of	civil	society	 The	FH	Score
Administrative
Not	a	dimension	of	urban	characteristics;	Introduced	as	a	frame	of	
reference	for	other	indicators
Empirical	Tests	–		
The	Multi-dimensional	Conditions	of	Urbanization
Empirical	Tests	–		
The	Divergent	Paths	of	Urbanization:	China	and	India
Tensions
People vs. land
Economy vs. environment
Financing vs. urban form
Locals vs. migrants
Given this dys-synchronization,
what should be our policy priority?
Question #4
Urbanization in China
Urban
190m
1980
Rural
863m
Urban
690m
2011
Rural
656m
Natural Growth
Natural Growth
~350m
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York 2010
1.05 Billion
18%
1.35 Billion
51%
Urban
~1,000m
Rural
~500m
2040
Natural Growth
Natural Growth
~350m
1.5 Billion
67%
Is China Really Special?
Didn’t NYC grow as fast 

in the late 19th century?
Question #5
7
China’s Urbanization in the International Context
Is China an Outlier?
Is China Really Special?
• Level
• Rate of Change
• Relationship with GDP
• Trajectory
Level
World Urbanization Level
Urbanization rate: percentage of population living in urban areas (as defined by the country).
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Urbanized_population_2006.png
0.00#
10.00#
20.00#
30.00#
40.00#
50.00#
60.00#
UrbanizationLevel/%
Year
Current# Official#Figures First#(1953)#and#Second#(1964)#Census Third#Census#(1982)
Fourth#Census#(1990) Fifth#Census#(2000) Sixth#Census#(2010)
From#Sixth#Census#(2010D)
China‘s Official Urbanization Statistics (1949-2013). Source: China Statistics Yearbook, 1983, 1991, 2001, 2012; China
Compendium of Statistics 1949-2008
Liyan Xu and Jinhua Zhao
Speed
35
1990
2010
Shanghai
36
1821
1845
Lowell, MA
37
1990
2010
Dubai
Urbanization and
Economic Development
Urbanization and Economic Development
Source: Liyan Xu, calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.
Trajectory
Urbanization Trajectories
Source: Liyan Xu calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.
1800$1810$1820$
1830$1840$
1850$
1860$
1870$
1880$
1890$
1900$ 1910$
1920$
1930$
1940$
1950$
1960$
1970$
1980$
1990$
2000$ 2010$
R²$=$0.66121$
2$
2.5$
3$
3.5$
4$
4.5$
5$
0$ 10$ 20$ 30$ 40$ 50$ 60$ 70$ 80$ 90$ 100$
Lg(GDP'per'Capita)2010'Dollars'($)
Urbanization'Rate/%
World,'2010'with'Urbanization'Trajectories'of'Various'Countries'
Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)$ USA$1800?2010$ Linear$Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization$Rate$
Urbanization Trajectories
Source: Liyan Xu calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.
1800$1810$1820$
1830$1840$
1850$
1860$
1870$
1880$
1890$
1900$ 1910$
1920$
1930$
1940$
1950$
1960$
1970$
1980$
1990$
2000$ 2010$
R²$=$0.66121$
2$
2.5$
3$
3.5$
4$
4.5$
5$
0$ 10$ 20$ 30$ 40$ 50$ 60$ 70$ 80$ 90$ 100$
Lg(GDP'per'Capita)2010'Dollars'($)
Urbanization'Rate/%
World,'2010'with'Urbanization'Trajectories'of'Various'Countries'
Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)$ USA$1800?2010$ UK$1830?2010$ Japan$1920?2010$ Linear$Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization$Rate$
Urbanization Trajectories
Source: Liyan Xu calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.
R²#=#0.66121#
2#
2.5#
3#
3.5#
4#
4.5#
5#
0# 10# 20# 30# 40# 50# 60# 70# 80# 90# 100#
Lg(GDP'per'Capita)2010'Dollars'($)
Urbanization'Rate/%
World,'2010'with'Urbanization'Trajectories'of'Various'Countries'
Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)# Annotations# India#1950E2010# Brazil#1960E2010# South#Korea#1960E2010# Ghana#1960E2010# Dem.Rep.Congo#1960E2010# Linear#Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization#Rate#
Urbanization Trajectories
R²#=#0.66121#
2#
2.5#
3#
3.5#
4#
4.5#
5#
0# 10# 20# 30# 40# 50# 60# 70# 80# 90# 100#
Lg(GDP'per'Capita)2010'Dollars'($)
Urbanization'Rate/%
World,'2010'with'Urbanization'Trajectories'of'Various'Countries'
Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)# Annotations# China#1952E2012# Linear#Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization#Rate#
Source: Liyan Xu calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.
Urbanization Trajectories
1800$1810$1820$
1830$1840$
1850$
1860$
1870$
1880$
1890$
1900$ 1910$
1920$
1930$
1940$
1950$
1960$
1970$
1980$
1990$
2000$ 2010$
R²$=$0.66121$
2$
2.5$
3$
3.5$
4$
4.5$
5$
0$ 10$ 20$ 30$ 40$ 50$ 60$ 70$ 80$ 90$ 100$
Lg(GDP'per'Capita)2010'Dollars'($)
Urbanization'Rate/%
World,'2010'with'Urbanization'Trajectories'of'Various'Countries'
Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)$ Annotations$ USA$1800E2010$ UK$1830E2010$ Japan$1920E2010$
India$1950E2010$ Brazil$1960E2010$ South$Korea$1960E2010$ China,$Taiwan$1952E2012$ Ghana$1960E2010$
Dem.Rep.Congo$1960E2010$ China$1952E2012$ Linear$Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization$Rate$
Source: Liyan Xu calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.
China’s Urbanization Follows the Norm
• Level
• Rate of Change
• Relationship with GDP
• Trajectory
59
40
Global Urbanization Trend
2011: 1.35 billion; 51.3% in urban areas
How is China Unique?
• Trajectory
• Internal Complexity
• Scale and Density
• Institutions
Trajectory
Source: Own calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012,World Bank GDP per capita data 2012.
OECD Countries Urbanization
Australia!
Austria! Belgium!
Canada!
Chile!
Czech Republic!
Denmark!
Estonia!
Finland!
France!Germany!
Greece!
Hungary!
Ireland!
Israel!
Italy!
Japan!
Mexico!
Netherlands!
New Zealand!
Norway!
Poland!
Portugal! Republic of Korea!
Slovakia!
Slovenia!
Spain!
Sweden!
Switzerland!
Turkey!
United Kingdom!
United States of America!
Australia!
Austria!
Belgium!
Canada!
Chile!
Denmark!
Finland!
France!
Greece!
Ireland!
Israel!
Italy!
Japan!
Mexico!
Netherlands!
New Zealand!
Norway!
Portugal!
Republic of Korea!
Spain!
Sweden!
Switzerland!
Turkey!
United Kingdom!
United States of America!
R² = 0.66121!
2!
2.5!
3!
3.5!
4!
4.5!
5!
10! 20! 30! 40! 50! 60! 70! 80! 90! 100!
Lg(GDPperCapita)/2010Dollars($)
Urbanization Rate/%
OECD Countries, 1960 - 2010!
PPP per Capita_2010_CD_WB! OECD Countries 2010! OECD Countries 1960! Linear Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization Rate!
OECD Country Urbanization
Manhattan; Suburb (Harry Potter’s aunt’s house in suburban London)
Pseudo Urbanization: Latin America
Source: Own calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012,World Bank GDP per capita data 2012.
Argentina!
Bolivia (Plurinational State of)!
Brazil!
Chile!
Colombia!
Costa Rica!
Ecuador!
El Salvador!
Guatemala!
Honduras!
Mexico!
Nicaragua!
Panama!
Paraguay!
Peru!
Uruguay!
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)!
Argentina!
Bolivia (Plurinational State of)!
Brazil!
Chile!
Colombia!
Costa Rica!
Ecuador! El Salvador!
Guatemala!
Honduras!
Mexico!
Nicaragua!
Panama!
Peru!
Uruguay!
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)!
R² = 0.66121!
2!
2.5!
3!
3.5!
4!
4.5!
5!
10! 20! 30! 40! 50! 60! 70! 80! 90! 100!
Lg(GDPperCapita)/2010Dollars($)
Urbanization Rate/%
Continental Latin America, 1960 - 2010!
PPP per Capita_2010_CD_WB! Continental Latin America 2010! Continental Latin America 1960! Linear Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization Rate!
Over-urbanization/Pseudo urbanization
Rio: skyscrapers and favelas (screenshot from Fast and Furious 5 and Rio, the 2011 carton movie featuring two blue macaws)
Under-urbanization: Former USSR
Soviet Baku
Over-urbanization and Economic Stagnation
Source: Own calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012,World Bank GDP per capita data 2012.
Angola!
Benin!
Botswana!
Burkina Faso!
Burundi!
Cameroon!
Central African Republic!
Chad!
Congo!
Côte d'Ivoire!
Democratic Republic of the Congo!
Equatorial Guinea!
Ethiopia!
Gabon!
Gambia!
Ghana!
Guinea!
Kenya!
Lesotho!
Liberia!
Madagascar!
Malawi!
Mali!
Mauritania!
Mozambique!
Namibia!
Niger!
Nigeria!
Rwanda!
Senegal!
Sierra Leone!
Somalia!
South Africa!
Swaziland!
Togo!Uganda! United Republic of Tanzania!
Zambia!
Zimbabwe!
Benin!
Botswana!
Burkina Faso!Burundi!
Cameroon!
Central African Republic!
Chad!
Congo!
Côte d'Ivoire!
Democratic Republic of the Congo!
Gabon!
Ghana!
Kenya!
Lesotho!
Liberia!
Madagascar!
Malawi!
Mauritania!
Niger!
Nigeria!
Rwanda!
Senegal!
Somalia!
South Africa!
Swaziland!
Togo!
Uganda!
Zambia!
Zimbabwe!
R² = 0.66121!
2!
2.5!
3!
3.5!
4!
4.5!
5!
0! 10! 20! 30! 40! 50! 60! 70! 80! 90! 100!
Lg(GDPperCapita)/2010Dollars($)
Urbanization Rate/%
Sub-Saharan Africa, 1960 - 2010!
PPP per Capita_2010_CD_WB! Sub-Saharan Africa 2010! Sub-Saharan Africa 1960! Linear Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization Rate!
Over-urbanization at a Low Development Level
Kibera, Nairobi‘s largest slum
Urbanization Trajectories
Source: Own calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.
1800$1810$1820$
1830$1840$
1850$
1860$
1870$
1880$
1890$
1900$ 1910$
1920$
1930$
1940$
1950$
1960$
1970$
1980$
1990$
2000$ 2010$
R²$=$0.66121$
2$
2.5$
3$
3.5$
4$
4.5$
5$
0$ 10$ 20$ 30$ 40$ 50$ 60$ 70$ 80$ 90$ 100$
Lg(GDP'per'Capita)2010'Dollars'($)
Urbanization'Rate/%
World,'2010'with'Urbanization'Trajectories'of'Various'Countries'
Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)$ Annotations$ USA$1800E2010$ UK$1830E2010$ Japan$1920E2010$
India$1950E2010$ Brazil$1960E2010$ South$Korea$1960E2010$ China,$Taiwan$1952E2012$ Ghana$1960E2010$
Dem.Rep.Congo$1960E2010$ China$1952E2012$ Linear$Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization$Rate$
Regional Disparity
Urbanization Rate at the Province Level
Source: Own calculation based on China’s 6th National Census data
Urbanization Rate at the Prefecture Level
Source: Own calculation based on China’s 6th National Census data
Internal Complexities
Source: Own calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012,World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.
• Despite similar urbanization level, ruralVermont(right) is different from rural
Guizhou(left).
• Choice of Lifestyle vs. Quality of Life
Unbalanced Urbanization
Scale and Density
Institutions
• Hukou
• Land (and public finance)
1
A Dualistic System
Urban Rural
Danwei Collective
Invisible Wall
Made in China
Wealth from Urbanization
Distance from city center
a
b b’
Land Rent Appreciation
LandRent
Splitting the Cake
Distance from city center
LandRent
a
b b’
Compensation: to land owners
Profit: to the developer
Tax: to the city government
Rural
Urban Migrant	
Workers
8
Urban
Permanent	Residents
III
II
II
II
3
4
II
5
2.a
II
2.b
II III
6
7.a
II III
I
10
1
IIII
7.b
II
9
Liyan Xu
Is China an Outlier?
• Trajectory
• Internal Complexity
• Scale and Density
• Institutions
• Level
• Rate of Change
• Relationship with GDP
• Trajectory
No Yes
Context of China’s Urbanization
• Marketization: Command à Market
• Decentralization: Central à Local
• Industrialization: Agricultural à Manufacture
• Migration: Rural à Urban Based Society
• Globalization: Autarky à Open Regime
89
Status	quo
• Quality
• Consumption
• People centered
• Small scale
• Cooperative
• Participation
• Quantity
• Production
• Infrastructure centered
• Large scale
• Competitive
• Top down
China’s transition
72
Direction	/	Ideal
Why do we care about China?
Why do we care about China?
• Intellectual curiosity
• Altruism
• Interconnected world (abstract / tangible)
• Exporter of knowledge?
• Technology implementation
• Policy transfer
• New phenomena and new experience
Jan 28, 2012
It is the first time since we began
our detailed coverage of the United
States in 1942 that we have singled
out a country in this way.
The principal reason is that China is
now an economic superpower and
is fast becoming a military force
capable of unsettling America.
But our interest in China lies also in
its politics: it is governed by a
system that is out of step with global
norms.
In ways that were never true of post-
war Japan and may never be true of
India, China will both fascinate and
agitate the rest of the world for a
long time to come.

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