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Kotkin - Housing the Future - 2017
- 1. HOUSING THE FUTURE June15, 2017 Described by the New York Times as “America’s uber-geographer,” Joel Kotkin is an internationally- recognized authority on global, economic, political and social trends. His newest book, The Human City: Urbanism for the Rest of Us, was published by Agate in April, 2016. Mr. Kotkin is the Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University in Orange, California and Executive Director of the Houston- based Center for Opportunity Urbanism (opportunityurbanism.org). He is Executive Editor of the widely read website www.newgeography.com and writes the weekly “New Geographer” column for Forbes.com. He serves on the editorial board of the Orange County Register and writes a weekly column for that paper, and is a regular contributor to the Daily Beast and Real Clear Politics. SPONSORED BY joelkotkin.com In partnership with National Community Renaissance, the Inland Valleys Association of Realtors® hosted a luncheon with special guest speaker and author Joel Kotkin. This invitation only, luncheon focused on critical housing issues impacting California and the Inland Empire. When: Thursday, June 15, 2017, 11:30am – 1:30pm Where: The Mission Inn – Galleria Room, 3649 Mission Inn Avenue, Riverside, CA 92501 FEATURING: JOEL KOTKIN
- 2. California’s Fading Dream:Losing Track of the Purpose of Cities Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures, Chapman University and Executive Director, Center for Opportunity IVAR & National CORE Event June 15, 2017 -- Riverside, CA joelkotkin.com 2
- 3. What is aCity for? “a city comes into being for the sake of life, but exists for the sake of living well.” ---Aristotle joelkotkin.com 3
- 4. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Medieval Town Pre-Industrial- Early 19th Century Industrial - Mid 19th Century Industrial cities boosted crowding dramatically Urban Land Use 1400-1850 Square meters/Person joelkotkin.com 4
- 5. The British Alternative: “Townand country must be married and out of this joyous union will spring a new hope, a new life, a new civilization.” Ebenezer Howard The Garden City joelkotkin.com 5
- 6. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2010 PopulationperSquareMile(Urban) New York Los Angeles PARIS,LONDON, NEW YORK & LOS ANGELES Estimated from statistical agency sources and historic maps. Paris London Built-Up Urban Area Densities: 1800-2010 joelkotkin.com 6
- 7. The US Experience:More Dispersion, More Denial by Planners, Pundits and some developers “We’ve reached the limits of suburban development .People are beginning to vote with their feet and come back to the central cities.” HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan Feb 2011 joelkotkin.com 7
- 8. Urban Core: CBD 0.8% Urban Core: InnerRing… Earlier Suburbs 29.5% Later Suburbs 45.8% Exurbs 14.5% 52 MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS (2010 to 2011-2015) Growth Share by City Sector: Early 2010s Derived from 2010 Census, American Community Survey 2011-2015 & City Sector Model joelkotkin.com 8
- 9. Suburbs Dominate JobGrowth joelkotkin.com 9
- 10. PRESENT RESIDENCE ANDPREFERRED IN 5 YEARS Source: http://www.bain.com/Images/BAIN_REPORT_Spatial_economics.pdf Living Preferences: Today and in 5 Years joelkotkin.com 10
- 11. 18,600 -64,600 -402,300 586,600 359,300 -600,000 -400,000 -200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 Urban Core: CBDUrban Core: Inner Ring Earlier Suburb Later Suburb Exurb EmploymentGrowth Derived from County Business Patterns data & City Sector Model 6 MAJOR CALIFORNIA MSA’S Database excludes most government employment Employment Growth by Sector: 2000-2014 joelkotkin.com 11
- 12. US Population byAge: 2013 joelkotkin.com 12
- 13. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Silent Generation BabyBoomer Generation Generation X Millenial Generation SHARE OF NATIONAL HOUSEHOLD WEALTH Derived from Deloitte Center for Financial Services Wealth by Generation: 2015-2030 joelkotkin.com 13
- 14. 1980 – 2014 Shareof 18-34 Year Olds Living with Parents joelkotkin.com 14
- 15. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Los Angeles OrangeRiverside San Bernardino Ventura LA-RIVERSIDE CSA COUNTIES US Census Bureau & 2010-2014 American Community Survey data Change in 20-29 Population: 2000-2014 joelkotkin.com 15
- 16. 1,100 7,800 87,800 15,200 26,100 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 Urban Core: CBD Urban Core: InnerRing Earlier Suburb Later Suburb Exurb PopulationGrowth Derived from Census Bureau data & City Sector Model 2015 Revision LOS ANGELES LONG BEACH CSA: 2010-2013 25-34 Growth by Sector joelkotkin.com 16
- 17. 0% 10% 20%30% 40% 50% Country Small City Suburb Big City Country Small City Suburb Big City Millenials Older Generations Source: Frank N. Magid Associates COMPARED TO OLDER GENERATIONS Current Residence IdealPlace toLive Millennial Life Style Choices joelkotkin.com 17
- 18. 84 81 80 86 89 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 Total population Millennials Gen X Boomers SilentGen Source: Merrill Lynch – Age Wave, 2014Base Age 21+ AGREEING THAT HOME OWNERSHIP AN IMPORTANT PART Survey: American Dream joelkotkin.com 18
- 19. BY GENERATION: 2011 Expectingto Marry & Have Kids joelkotkin.com 19
- 20. Projected national numberof 20-27 and 28-35 population cohorts, 2014 to 2060 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 20-27 28-35 Source: Business Insider/Andy Kiersz, data from US Census Bureau joelkotkin.com 20
- 21. % living inurban neighborhoods, by age group 30% 25% 20% 15% 18-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ 2000 2014 An aging population also boosts the suburbs joelkotkin.com 21
- 22. Detached House 81% Townhouse 8% Multi-Unit 7% Other 4% 2014-2015 NATIONAL ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS From National Association of Realtors, 2015 House Purchases: Under Age 35 joelkotkin.com 22
- 23. -20% -10% 0%10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Los Angeles MSA New York MSA Chicago MSA San Diego MSA San Francisco MSA San Jose MSA Sacramento MSA Riverside San Bernardino MSA Houston MSA Dallas-Fort Worth MSA Austin MSA California United States Outside California MSAs California MSAs Derived from Census Bureau data SELECTED METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000-2015 Change in Child Population (5-14) joelkotkin.com 23
- 24. 0% 5% 10%15% 20% 25% Georgia Hawaii Mississippi Nevada New Mexico Arizona Louisiana New York Florida California UNITED STATES Housing Cost Adjusted Poverty Rate STATES: 2015 Census Bureau data Highest Housing Adjusted Poverty Rates joelkotkin.com 24
- 25. 0% 10% 20%30% 40% 50% Bakersfield Modesto Stockton Fresno #42 San Jose, CA #43 Boston, MA-NH #44 Las Vegas, NV #45 Virginia Beach-Norfolk, VA-… #46 Orlando, FL #47 San Francisco, CA #48 Sacramento, CA #49 Riverside-San Bernardino,… #50 San Diego, CA #51 New York, NY-NJ-PA #52 Miami, FL #53 Los Angeles, CA % of Households Other Large CA MSAs Major CA MSAs Other Major MSAs Housing Cost Burdened Households 12 WORST MAJOR MSAS & OTHER LARGE CA MSAS Source: American Community Survey joelkotkin.com 25
- 26. Grand Delusions won’trestore Upward Mobility in California : We Need to Change the Debate California Policies • Green Jobs and forced density • High-Speed Rail and transit • Social engineering away from families and middle class housing and jobs joelkotkin.com 26
- 27. 0 1 23 4 United States Texas California Los Angeles San Francisco Riverside-San Bernardino San Diego Sacramento San Jose Permit Rate per 1,000 Population Multi Family Single Family (Detached) CALIFORNIA & THE US: 2011-2015: DETACHED & MULTI-FAMILY Residential Building Permits joelkotkin.com 27
- 28. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 1980 1990 20002010 2014 MarketShare Market Share for Indicated Years Only Transit Work at Home TRANSIT & WORK AT HOME SHARE: 1980-2014 Derived Census Bureau data Los Angeles CSA Commuting joelkotkin.com 28
- 29. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Core Inner RingSecond Ring Outer Ring MetricTons AUSTRALIA 5 LARGE CAPITAL URBAN AREAS Housing Form in Australia and Its Impact on Greenhouse Gas Emissions CO2 Emissions per Capita: By Sector joelkotkin.com 29
- 30. EMISSION REDUCTION GOALS& OUT-MIGRANT INCREASE California Air Resources Board and David Friedman California Emissions: Comparisons joelkotkin.com 30
- 31. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ComparedtoDetached(5) Construction Cost/Square FootCompared to Detached (5 per Acre) SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA Construction Cost by House Type Derived from FBI Statistics: 2013, Major metropolitan areas (average). joelkotkin.com 31
- 32. Future of Suburbia •Suburbia about to gain as minorities and millennials head there • Future suburbs will develop more amenities and be more self-sufficient • The diverse, more interesting suburbs are best positioned joelkotkin.com 32
- 33. The Shift inretail will open new opportunities joelkotkin.com 33
- 34. The Future ofRetail joelkotkin.com 34
- 35. Key Solutions andRecommendations • Reform regulatory rules to be friendly for middle class and family housing • More emphasis on dispersed and home based work patterns • Transportation solutions should be 21st Century variety, not yet another failed attempt to recreate the 19th • Look to shift redundant office space to housing and develop responsible housing, flexible workplaces on periphery joelkotkin.com 35
- 36. • After allis said and done, he --- the citizen --- is really the city. The city is going wherever he goes. “ Frank Lloyd Wright, The Living City, (1958) joelkotkin.com 36
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