This summary is based on results from Ipsos’ 1st Quarter SPEC survey of 2015 that was conducted between March 28 and April 7. It is the 9th such release. Given that the tragic attack on Garissa University College occurred on April 2, about 25% of the interviews took place after that date. However, in comparing the results obtained before and after April 2, their distribution was clearly affected more on some issues than others, or not at all. For example, the proportion of those perceiving al-Shabaab as “very much a threat” after April 2 was 14% higher than before that date. By contrast the results presented here (on issues unrelated to security, presidential approval, etc.) were not affected by that tragic attack.
This summary is based on results from Ipsos’ 1st Quarter SPEC survey of 2015 that was conducted between March 28 and April 7. It is the 9th such release. Given that the tragic attack on Garissa University College occurred on April 2, about 25% of the interviews took place after that date. However, in comparing the results obtained before and after April 2, their distribution was clearly affected more on some issues than others, or not at all. For example, the proportion of those perceiving al-Shabaab as “very much a threat” after April 2 was 14% higher than before that date. By contrast the results presented here (on issues unrelated to security, presidential approval, etc.) were not affected by that tragic attack.
Written by Manuel Bagues & Pamela Campa
Abstract
We provide a comprehensive analysis of the short- and medium-term effects of gender quotas in candidate lists using evidence from local elections in Spain. In the context of a closed list system with proportional representation, quotas were introduced in 2007 in municipalities with more than 5,000 inhabitants, and were extended in 2011 to municipalities with more than 3,000 inhabitants. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design, we find that quotas increased the share of women in candidate lists by around 8 p.p. and among council members by 4 p.p. However, within three rounds of elections, we do not observe any significant variation in voting behaviour, the quality of politicians, the probability that women reach powerful positions such as party leader or mayor, or the size and composition of public finances. Overall, our analysis suggests that quotas in candidate lists fail to remove the barriers that prevent women from playing an influential role in politics.
This summary is based on results from Ipsos’ 1st Quarter SPEC survey of 2015 that was conducted between March 28 and April 7. It is the 9th such release. Given that the tragic attack on Garissa University College occurred on April 2, about 25% of the interviews took place after that date. However, in comparing the results obtained before and after April 2, their distribution was clearly affected more on some issues than others, or not at all. For example, the proportion of those perceiving al-Shabaab as “very much a threat” after April 2 was 14% higher than before that date. By contrast the results presented here (on issues unrelated to security, presidential approval, etc.) were not affected by that tragic attack.
Written by Manuel Bagues & Pamela Campa
Abstract
We provide a comprehensive analysis of the short- and medium-term effects of gender quotas in candidate lists using evidence from local elections in Spain. In the context of a closed list system with proportional representation, quotas were introduced in 2007 in municipalities with more than 5,000 inhabitants, and were extended in 2011 to municipalities with more than 3,000 inhabitants. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design, we find that quotas increased the share of women in candidate lists by around 8 p.p. and among council members by 4 p.p. However, within three rounds of elections, we do not observe any significant variation in voting behaviour, the quality of politicians, the probability that women reach powerful positions such as party leader or mayor, or the size and composition of public finances. Overall, our analysis suggests that quotas in candidate lists fail to remove the barriers that prevent women from playing an influential role in politics.
Partiendo del análisis de más de 500 elecciones alrededor del mundo Alfred Cuzán explora cinco pautas regulares y recurrentes, que se convierten en pautas de funcionamiento del poder político.
The recent controversy surrounding Indiana Attorney General Curtis Hill may not have had much impact on what Hoosiers think of the job he is doing.
As part of our Indy Politics scientific poll of 600 likely voters, conducted last week by Mason Strategies LLC, we asked about Hill’s favorable and unfavorable ratings.
The results of an Indy Politics poll of this year’s upcoming City-County Council races indicates control of the body could be up for grabs. However, candidates have a long way to go to educate voters about who’s even on the ballot in their district.
Analysis of the 2016 presidential election results. I used "voting tabulation district" data to evaluate the election results as a function of two key demographic criteria - population density and racial diversity.
Certus Insights Special Report: Overview of Polling and Media Coverage on Imp...Natalie Copeland
An in-depth report that reviews the major trends on public attitudes toward the impeachment inquiry, including the latest polling numbers, trends in attitudes since the inquiry announcement, an overview of partisan attitudes, and the impact of impeachment on the President’s approval ratings. The report also details media coverage of the impeachment, examining the amount of coverage, comparisons of the coverage to the Mueller investigation, most shared publications, and most shared news articles.
In anticipation of the second Democratic primary debates, we’ve put together a brief Election 2020 snapshot outlining where things stand heading into the debates and what to watch for during the two-night event.
The report measures attitudes and preferences regarding the 2020 presidential election, as well as attitudes about the current administration and its policies.
This paper is the first in a series of publications aimed at provoking thought and discourse on issues relating to “Winner-Takes-All” politics in Ghana. It discusses winner-takes-all as an electoral formula and situates it within the context of winner-takes-all politics in Ghana. It highlights the dangers of Ghana’s winner-takes-all politics such as the marginalization of perceived political opponents and the feeling of exclusion from the governance process by those who do not belong to the government/ruling party. The paper argues further that winner-takes-all politics undermines the quest for national development, cohesion and the drive towards democratic maturity. In proffering policy recommendation, the paper critically examines Proportional Representation as one possible mechanism for ensuring inclusive governance and dealing with some of the challenges associated with winner-takes-all politics.
Britain’s two-party system is being eroded by an unprecedented surge of support for smaller parties. This Bloomberg Brief report examines the implications of the most uncertain general election in a generation.
Our company develops creative consulting frameworks to facilitate adoption of strategy and change initiatives within organizations.
This is one we created out of our passion for helping people realize the important role culture plays in the life-cycle of an organization.
We will be talking about this and a lot more on June 26th in San Francisco at the Culture Summit. http://culturesummit.co
Learn more about us at http://mtca.co
Partiendo del análisis de más de 500 elecciones alrededor del mundo Alfred Cuzán explora cinco pautas regulares y recurrentes, que se convierten en pautas de funcionamiento del poder político.
The recent controversy surrounding Indiana Attorney General Curtis Hill may not have had much impact on what Hoosiers think of the job he is doing.
As part of our Indy Politics scientific poll of 600 likely voters, conducted last week by Mason Strategies LLC, we asked about Hill’s favorable and unfavorable ratings.
The results of an Indy Politics poll of this year’s upcoming City-County Council races indicates control of the body could be up for grabs. However, candidates have a long way to go to educate voters about who’s even on the ballot in their district.
Analysis of the 2016 presidential election results. I used "voting tabulation district" data to evaluate the election results as a function of two key demographic criteria - population density and racial diversity.
Certus Insights Special Report: Overview of Polling and Media Coverage on Imp...Natalie Copeland
An in-depth report that reviews the major trends on public attitudes toward the impeachment inquiry, including the latest polling numbers, trends in attitudes since the inquiry announcement, an overview of partisan attitudes, and the impact of impeachment on the President’s approval ratings. The report also details media coverage of the impeachment, examining the amount of coverage, comparisons of the coverage to the Mueller investigation, most shared publications, and most shared news articles.
In anticipation of the second Democratic primary debates, we’ve put together a brief Election 2020 snapshot outlining where things stand heading into the debates and what to watch for during the two-night event.
The report measures attitudes and preferences regarding the 2020 presidential election, as well as attitudes about the current administration and its policies.
This paper is the first in a series of publications aimed at provoking thought and discourse on issues relating to “Winner-Takes-All” politics in Ghana. It discusses winner-takes-all as an electoral formula and situates it within the context of winner-takes-all politics in Ghana. It highlights the dangers of Ghana’s winner-takes-all politics such as the marginalization of perceived political opponents and the feeling of exclusion from the governance process by those who do not belong to the government/ruling party. The paper argues further that winner-takes-all politics undermines the quest for national development, cohesion and the drive towards democratic maturity. In proffering policy recommendation, the paper critically examines Proportional Representation as one possible mechanism for ensuring inclusive governance and dealing with some of the challenges associated with winner-takes-all politics.
Britain’s two-party system is being eroded by an unprecedented surge of support for smaller parties. This Bloomberg Brief report examines the implications of the most uncertain general election in a generation.
Our company develops creative consulting frameworks to facilitate adoption of strategy and change initiatives within organizations.
This is one we created out of our passion for helping people realize the important role culture plays in the life-cycle of an organization.
We will be talking about this and a lot more on June 26th in San Francisco at the Culture Summit. http://culturesummit.co
Learn more about us at http://mtca.co
A short presentation. Research proposal on the voting preferences of generation X and Y voters in Metro Manila, Philippines. Qualitative research class.
Descriptive and Inferential Statistical Methods: Analysis of Voting and Elect...Toni Menninger
A presentation highlighting the relevance of statistical methods for the analysis and forecast of elections:
* Voter Turnout by Income, Age, and Gender, with detailed graphs and explanations
* Polls and Election Forecasting, with explanation of the 95% confidence interval
* Representativeness and random sampling
* Aggregated election forecast models
Increasingly non partisan, South Africans willing to trade elections for secu...SABC News
South Africa is getting ready for its fifth general election, expected to be held by August 2019. Over the coming months, political parties will be campaigning for national and provincial leadership.
This monograph was written for Wagner College's Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform in April 2020 by Bradley Tusk, founder and CEO of Tusk Holdings, and Aileen Kim, Mobile Voting Project Leader, Tusk Philanthropies.
Ke ipsos columbia_university_report_june_2015_pa_final_versionIpsos
The first ever Nairobi opinion poll on transportation conducted for the Center for Sustainable Urban Development of Earth Institute, Columbia University in partnership with the Kenya Alliance of Resident Associations (KARA).
This summary is based on results from Ipsos’ 1st Quarter SPEC survey of 2015 that was conducted between March 28 and April 7. It is the 9th such release. Given that the tragic attack on Garissa University College occurred on April 2, about 25% of the interviews took place after that date. However, in comparing the results obtained before and after April 2, their distribution was clearly affected more on some issues than others, or not at all. For example, the proportion of those perceiving al-Shabaab as “very much a threat” after April 2 was 14% higher than before that date. By contrast the results presented here (on issues unrelated to security, presidential approval, etc.) were not affected by that tragic attack.
Confidence Ratings: Public Officials and Independent InstitutionsIpsos
Once again, the President is ‘bested’ only by the First Lady in terms of the confidence the public has in senior officials, commissions, and non-state actors. However, his rating was affected negatively by the al-Shabaab attack at the Garissa University College.
Confidence Ratings: Public Officials and Independent InstitutionsIpsos
Among the senior government officials rated, the President again leads, with nearly half (48%) expressing “a lot of confidence” in him, significantly higher than even his Deputy (35%) in such terms.
Introduction
As the Jubilee administration nears the half-way mark in its term, Ipsos’ most recent survey included questions on a number of issues that are continuing to occupy public, and government, attention. In this Media Release, we cover the following in the Education sector: (1) The laptop project, (2) School-ranking, (3) Teachers’ Pay Demands.
Foreign Relations: Perceived Impact on Kenya’s DevelopmentIpsos
• US-China global super-power rivalry evident in Kenyans’ perceptions of development needs and concerns.
Introduction
As U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry continues with his high-level meetings, he may be interested to know who Kenyans consider are their most valuable development partners, as well as which foreign countries outside the immediate East Africa region whose perceived interests in Kenya cause them most concern. These realities formed part of Ipsos’ most recent national survey.
Foreign Relations: Perceived Impact on Kenya’s Development Ipsos
• US-China global super-power rivalry evident in Kenyans’ perceptions of development needs and concerns.
Introduction
As U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry continues with his high-level meetings, he may be interested to know who Kenyans consider are their most valuable development partners, as well as which foreign countries outside the immediate East Africa region whose perceived interests in Kenya cause them most concern. These realities formed part of Ipsos’ most recent national survey.
The Kenyan Economy: Perceptions and RealitiesIpsos
In this release, we present several findings related to the economy.
Underpinning the specific findings is the general reality that three-quarters of all Kenyan households (75%) report a total family income of Shs. 25,000 or less, with more than half of these households (44%) earning between nothing and only Shs. 10,000 (a figure which increases to 46% if those who declined/were unable to answer this question are excluded). In addition, as is seen in several of the specific findings show below, such extensive poverty takes a clear regional dimension. For example, the proportion of those in the Shs. 10,000 and below category is 56% at the Coast compared to 56% in Nairobi, more than twice.
At the same time, these income-group findings over all three Ipsos surveys since May, 2014 show no statistical change, reflecting both the static nature of income-distribution in Kenya, and the reliability of Ipsos’ survey methodology.
The Kenyan Economy: Perceptions and Realities Ipsos
In this release, we present several findings related to the economy.
Underpinning the specific findings is the general reality that three-quarters of all Kenyan households (75%) report a total family income of Shs. 25,000 or less, with more than half of these households (44%) earning between nothing and only Shs. 10,000 (a figure which increases to 46% if those who declined/were unable to answer this question are excluded). In addition, as is seen in several of the specific findings show below, such extensive poverty takes a clear regional dimension. For example, the proportion of those in the Shs. 10,000 and below category is 56% at the Coast compared to 56% in Nairobi, more than twice.
At the same time, these income-group findings over all three Ipsos surveys since May, 2014 show no statistical change, reflecting both the static nature of income-distribution in Kenya, and the reliability of Ipsos’ survey methodology.
Confident with the Principle, Critical with the Practice: Kenyans Speak Out ...Ipsos
There is overwhelming support for devolution by the public, with more than three-quarters (78%) expressing this view. This represents a considerable increase since last September, when such support was expressed by only two-thirds (69%) of all respondents.
Ipsos conducted its first quarterly SPEC survey during the period of 28th March to 7th April 2015. The topics covered in this Media Release are: (1) corruption, (2) the al-Shabaab threat, and (3) the digital migration. The questionnaire was finalized immediately after the President’s ‘State of the Nation’ address to parliament. Because the Garissa attack occurred after fieldwork had begun, no questions about this tragic event could be included. However, since about two-thirds of all field interviews had been completed by 2nd April, and the final one-quarter were conducted between 3rd and 7th April, it has been possible to compare responses on certain relevant questions by these two sections of the respondents.
Ke ipsos spec_poll_narrative_report_17_april_2015Ipsos
Ipsos conducted its first quarterly SPEC survey during the period of 28th March to 7th April 2015. The topics covered in this Media Release are: (1) corruption, (2) the al-Shabaab threat, and (3) the digital migration. The questionnaire was finalized immediately after the President’s ‘State of the Nation’ address to parliament. Because the Garissa attack occurred after fieldwork had begun, no questions about this tragic event could be included. However, since about two-thirds of all field interviews had been completed by 2nd April, and the final one-quarter were conducted between 3rd and 7th April, it has been possible to compare responses on certain relevant questions by these two sections of the respondents.
role of women and girls in various terror groupssadiakorobi2
Women have three distinct types of involvement: direct involvement in terrorist acts; enabling of others to commit such acts; and facilitating the disengagement of others from violent or extremist groups.
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
In a May 9, 2024 paper, Juri Opitz from the University of Zurich, along with Shira Wein and Nathan Schneider form Georgetown University, discussed the importance of linguistic expertise in natural language processing (NLP) in an era dominated by large language models (LLMs).
The authors explained that while machine translation (MT) previously relied heavily on linguists, the landscape has shifted. “Linguistics is no longer front and center in the way we build NLP systems,” they said. With the emergence of LLMs, which can generate fluent text without the need for specialized modules to handle grammar or semantic coherence, the need for linguistic expertise in NLP is being questioned.
31052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
Future Of Fintech In India | Evolution Of Fintech In IndiaTheUnitedIndian
Navigating the Future of Fintech in India: Insights into how AI, blockchain, and digital payments are driving unprecedented growth in India's fintech industry, redefining financial services and accessibility.
Welcome to the new Mizzima Weekly !
Mizzima Media Group is pleased to announce the relaunch of Mizzima Weekly. Mizzima is dedicated to helping our readers and viewers keep up to date on the latest developments in Myanmar and related to Myanmar by offering analysis and insight into the subjects that matter. Our websites and our social media channels provide readers and viewers with up-to-the-minute and up-to-date news, which we don’t necessarily need to replicate in our Mizzima Weekly magazine. But where we see a gap is in providing more analysis, insight and in-depth coverage of Myanmar, that is of particular interest to a range of readers.
27052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
03062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
ys jagan mohan reddy political career, Biography.pdfVoterMood
Yeduguri Sandinti Jagan Mohan Reddy, often referred to as Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, is an Indian politician who currently serves as the Chief Minister of the state of Andhra Pradesh. He was born on December 21, 1972, in Pulivendula, Andhra Pradesh, to Yeduguri Sandinti Rajasekhara Reddy (popularly known as YSR), a former Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, and Y.S. Vijayamma.
हम आग्रह करते हैं कि जो भी सत्ता में आए, वह संविधान का पालन करे, उसकी रक्षा करे और उसे बनाए रखे।" प्रस्ताव में कुल तीन प्रमुख हस्तक्षेप और उनके तंत्र भी प्रस्तुत किए गए। पहला हस्तक्षेप स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करके, वास्तविकता पर आधारित काउंटर नैरेटिव का निर्माण करके और सत्तारूढ़ सरकार द्वारा नियोजित मनोवैज्ञानिक हेरफेर की रणनीति का मुकाबला करके लोगों द्वारा निर्धारित कथा को बनाए रखना और उस पर कार्यकरना था।
Ipsos’ 1st Quarter SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Survey: 9th Media Release: Election and Political Issues
1. Page 1 of 17
Nairobi, Kenya
30th
May 2015
Ipsos’ 1st
Quarter SPEC (Social, Political,
Economic and Cultural) Survey:
9th Media Release:
Election and Political Issues
This summary is based on results from Ipsos’ 1st
Quarter SPEC survey of 2015 that
was conducted between March 28 and April 7. It is the 9th
such release. Given that
the tragic attack on Garissa University College occurred on April 2, about 25% of the
interviews took place after that date. However, in comparing the results obtained
before and after April 2, their distribution was clearly affected more on some issues
than others, or not at all. For example, the proportion of those perceiving al-
Shabaab as “very much a threat” after April 2 was 14% higher than before that date.
By contrast the results presented here (on issues unrelated to security, presidential
approval, etc.) were not affected by that tragic attack.
Highlights:
About three-quarters of all Kenyans know the currently-set date of the next
election (August, 2017), but nearly two-thirds support it being pushed back (to
December, 2017). Further, there is no contrast between Jubilee and CORD
supporters on this issue.
Only one-fifth of Kenyans are aware of any voter registration that has been
conducted in their locality since the last election.
Fewer than half believe that the public has sufficient confidence in the IEBC to
manage the next election without major reforms, though a clear contrast
between Jubilee and CORD supporters is evident here, with nearly three
times as many of the former satisfied with the IEBC as is presently
constituted.
Kenyans remain very divided over the continuation vs. termination of the
remaining ICC case involving Deputy President William Ruto and radio
journalist Joshua arap Sang, though somewhat more prefer its termination.
They are similarly divided over the likelihood that DP Ruto will be convicted
and, if he is, whether any violence would erupt.
There is somewhat more support for the establishment of an African Human
Rights Court than for Kenya’s withdrawal from the ICC, but in both cases, a
stark contrast between Jubilee and CORD supporters over these two issues,
that also takes a clear regional dime
2. Page 2 of 17
More than four-in-five are aware of at least one prominent person who has
died in the recent past, and nearly three-quarters want the causes of such
deaths to be made public.
Jubilee and its affiliate political parties remain more popular than do CORD
and its affiliated parties.
Kenyans remain divided over their preferred option for Raila Odinga’s political
future, though since November, 2014, the proportion who want him to contest
the next election has increased (nearly equal to the figures obtained in 5
earlier surveys beginning with that in June, 2013). About fve times as many
CORD as Jubilee supporters prefer this option, however.
About three times as many of those who do not feel the IEBC has sufficient
public confidence to manage the next elections prefer this “he should contest”
option.
Election Issues
Last year a substantial number of MPs proposed that the date of the next election be
moved from August to December, 2017. Yet due to the fact that this date is set by
the constitution, robust (two-thirds) majorities in both the National Assembly and the
Senate would be required to change it, doing this will require strong support from
both Jubilee and CORD Members. Initially, most support for this change came from
the CORD side, described by commentators as a strategy to ensure that the most
senior members of the current election commission (IEBC) in whom CORD has less
than full confidence will have vacated office, as their terms expire in November of
that year. In response, the Jubilee leadership threatened to bring a bill extending
their terms of office for six months so that in the event the date is pushed back, the
current IEBC team – rather than another one having been in place for just a few
weeks – would have this major responsibility.
(In addition, since the last election was held in 2013, some are claiming the next one
should not be held until 2018, but this position so far does not appear to have
received significant backing, at least in terms of constitutional interpretation, given
that the original date for the first election under the new constitution was supposed to
be August, 2012, and was only moved back by a High Court decision.)
While ‘final’ positions on this issue are still unclear, it was considered useful to
explore several issues related to the 2017 election date in this survey.
Knowledge of the Next Election Date
The first question relating to election issues sought to determine how many Kenyans
are aware of the date of the next general election, and the extent to which such
3. Page 3 of 17
awareness varies in demographic terms. Whereas, overall, more than three-quarters
(78%) do so (August, 2017), slightly more urban dwellers than their rural
counterparts and men than women know this (80% vs. 76%, and 81% vs. 74%,
respectively). A greater contrast is seen in terms of region, however, with the level
of awareness ranging from highs in Central and Rift Valley (89% and 84%) to a low
in Western (just 56%).
Such variations appear to be explained mainly by education levels, since a clear
contrast is seen in these terms. Specifically, whereas only just over half of those
without any formal education know this date (56%), nearly nine-out-of-ten of those
with any post-secondary education (86%) do so. As such, these results emphasize
just how empowering education is as a tool of citizen engagement. (At least in terms
of self-reporting, such ‘engagement’ does not appear to be reflected in voter turnout
rates; however, since about 90% of respondents in all education-level categories
claim to have voted in the last election.)
Support for Change of the Election Date from August to December, 2017
Overall, nearly two-thirds of Kenyans (64%) support this proposed change, with even
slightly higher support among those self-identifying as supporters of the Jubilee and
CORD parties/coalitions (67% and 66%, respectively). At the regional level,
however two parts of the country where CORD is most popular are at opposite ends
of the support-spectrum (Nyanza – 80% vs. Coast – 47%).
% Who Know the Date of the Next Election (August, 2017):
by Total, Setting, Gender
78%
80%
76%
81%
74%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=1,964) Urban (n=729) Rural (n=1,235) Male (n=956) Female (n=1,008)
4. Page 4 of 17
Indeed, the fact that no partisan divide emerges in these figures suggests however
much this proposal is being scrutinized by politicians in terms of potential
advantages or disadvantages based on who manages the next election, the public
so far is judging this primarily in terms of such criteria as personal convenience,
impact on the school term-calendar, or other factors.
% Who Support Changing the Date of the Next Election from
August to December, 2017: by Total, Setting, Gender and Main
Political Party/Coalition
64% 65% 64% 66%
63%
66% 67%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total
(n=1,964)
Urban (n=729) Rural
(n=1,235)
Male (n=956) Female
(n=1,008)
CORD
Supporters
(n=623)
Jubilee
Supporters
(867)
% Who Support Changing the Date of the Next Election from
August to December, 2017: by Region
80%
71%
68%
64%
58% 56%
53%
47%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Nyanza
(n=257)
Rift Valley
(n=484)
Central
(n=257)
Nairobi
(n=206)
North
Eastern
(n=94)
Western
(n=200)
Eastern
(n=293)
Coast
(n=173)
5. Page 5 of 17
Awareness of Voter Registration Since the Last Election
Even without the counting coming-of-age of 18 year-olds, only about two-thirds of
eligible Kenyans were registered before the March, 2013 election. As such, the
IEBC – in accordance with its constitutional responsibility to undertake continuous
voter-registration – has made some effort in this regard over the last two years.
According to the results from this survey, however, only one-in-five (20%) are aware
of such registration in their locality during this period. However, the data reveal that
somewhat more men than women are among those aware (22% vs. 17%), which
suggests that even within the same areas not everyone is aware of voter registration
when it has in fact occurred. Whether this reality explains the fairly large gaps in
such awareness across the regions – ranging from highs in North Eastern and
Central (37% and 27%, respectively) to lows in Eastern and Western (15% and 10%,
respectively), or whether such differences reflect the actual levels of IEBC
engagement on the ground, is unclear (though both factors could be at work in
determining such awareness-figures).
Confidence in the IEBC to Manage the Next Elections
Elsewhere in this same survey (and as reported in Ipsos’ 8th
Media Release),
respondents were asked how much confidence they have in the IEBC. This was in
terms of having “a lot of confidence” (16%), “some confidence” (35%), “a little
confidence” (19%) and “no confidence at all” (28%). Here, however, they were
asked whether they think “voters have enough confidence” in the electoral body to
manage the next elections.
20%
22%
18%
22%
17%
21% 22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Total
(n=1,964)
Urban
(n=729)
Rural
(n=1,235)
Male (n=956) Female
(n=1,008)
CORD
Supporters
(n=623)
Jubilee
Supporters
(n=867)
% Aware of Any Voter Registration in Their Locality Since Last
Election: by Total, Setting, Gender, Main Political Party/Coalition
6. Page 6 of 17
Overall, only about one-in-four (42%) think that they do, though here a major
partisan divide emerges, with nearly three times as many Jubilee supporters positive
on this issue as compared with CORD’s (61% vs. 21%). Such a split is evident in
regional terms as well, with almost the same contrast between respondents in
Central and Nyanza (60% vs. 22%).
The ICC and Related Issues
This is the first Ipsos survey since the withdrawal of the case against President
Uhuru Kenyatta, leaving the one against Deputy President William Ruto and radio
journalist Joshua arap Sang. Public awareness of this case remains high
Preference Regarding Continuation of the Ruto-Sang Case
The distribution of preferences regarding this case show a clear plurality in favour of
it being dropped (48%), even if the two groups of respondents who want it to
continue (with/without the presence of the accused) comprises almost as many
(41%), others have a variety of disparate views.
“Do you think voters will have enough confidence in the IEBC to
manage the next elections?”: by Total, Setting, Gender, Main
Political Party/Coalition
42%
35%
46%
43% 42%
21%
61%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total
(n=1,964)
Urban (n=729) Rural
(n=1,235)
Male (n=956) Female
(n=1,008)
CORD
Supporters
(n=623)
Jubilee
Supporters
(n=867)
% saying “YES”
7. Page 7 of 17
Expectations of the Ruto-Sang Case Outcome: Convictions and Violence
Half of all Kenyans believe that this case will either certainly or may possibly result in
convictions (50%), with only one-third (33%) certain that this will not happen.
Almost the same results apply to expectations regarding the potential for violence
should the DP be found guilty, with just over half (53%) of the view that this
eventuality is either certain or possible, and again one-third (33%) certain that no
such violence would occur.
“What would you like to happen to the Ruto and Sang’ case?”
48%
33%
8%
5%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
It should be terminated/dropped completely
It should continue at the ICC as it is now
It should continue at the ICC but without the
presence of the accused
Not sure
It should be deferred for a year
There should be a fair trial
It should be referred to Kenyan courts
RTA
Base: Those aware of either William Ruto, Joshua arap Sang’ or
both as facing trial at the ICC (n=1,735)
8. Page 8 of 17
Withdrawal From and Alternatives to the ICC
Regarding the proposals for Kenya to withdraw from the Rome Treaty/the ICC,
Kenyans are split right down the middle (YES: 50%, NO: 50%), though with major
regional variations, ranging from a high in favour of this among respondents from
Central (76%) to a low in Coast (24%). Such contrasting positions appear mainly to
reflect the political divide, with more than twice as many Jubilee than CORD
supporters backing such a withdrawal (70% vs. 30%).
26% 27%
24%
26%
33% 33%
16%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
How likely do you think it is that the Ruto
case will end in his conviction?
How likely do you think it is that there will
be any violence if Ruto is convicted?
Certainly will Possibly will Certainly NOT Not sure
“Whatever your view about this case….?”
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
9. Page 9 of 17
African Human Rights Court
Even more support is shown for the proposal to establish an African Human Rights
court that would serve as a substitute or replacement for the ICC as far as African
Union member-states are concerned (in favour – 54%, against – 40%).
A similar range is seen in regional terms, though here least support comes from
residents of Nyanza (32%) as compared with those in Central, where about four-in-
five (89%) support this idea. And again a similar partisan contrast is seen, with
almost twice as many Jubilee supporters in favour of this initiative than their CORD
counterparts (74% vs. 33%).
As such, the lingering political split over this issue which emerged well before the
2013 election is still very much alive.
“Do you support the proposal for Kenya to withdraw from the
ICC?”
50%
76%
69%
59%
50%
44%
41%
32%
24%
50%
24%
31%
41%
50%
56%
59%
68%
76%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total
(n=1,964)
Central
(n=257)
North
Eastern
(n=94)
Rift Valley
(n=484)
Eastern
(n=293)
Nairobi
(n=206)
Western
(n=200)
Nyanza
(n=257)
Coast
(n=173)
YES NO
10. Page 10 of 17
Deaths of “Prominent People”
Since Ipsos’ 4th
Quarter Survey of 2014, several deaths (indeed, tragic) have
occurred of major leaders/personalities in Kenya. Given this sad fact, respondents
were asked which such events they were aware of, and whether they favour the
release of information as to the cause of/those responsible for these deaths, if and
when such information has been confirmed.
Awareness of Deaths
Three main figures lost their lives since the last Ipsos survey. However, levels of
awareness about these events vary somewhat, from a high with regard to Hon. G.
Muchai (55%) to a low for F. Odinga (40%, with slightly more aware of that of Sen.
O. Kajwang (43%). (Among the others mentioned, all occurred much earlier – e.g.,
M. Kilonzo, S. Saitoti, and O. Ojode – aside from M. Yebei, who is unlikely to be
considered as a “prominent” person by most respondents.)
“Do you support/oppose the proposal by the African Union to
establish an African Human rights court as a substitute for the
ICC?”
54%
32%
48%
43%
49%
53%
62% 63%
79%
40%
62%
50%
48%
45%
40%
34%
30%
17%
6% 6%
3%
9%
6% 7% 5% 7%
4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total
(n=1,964)
Nyanza
(n=257)
Nairobi
(n=206)
Western
(n=200)
Coast
(n=173)
Eastern
(n=293)
Rift Valley
(n=484)
North
Eastern
(n=94)
Central
(n=257)
Support Oppose Not sure
11. Page 11 of 17
Making Public the Cause of Such Deaths
Among all respondents, nearly three-quarters (72%) believe the cause of death in
such cases should be made public, with fewer than one-in-ten (17%) of the view that
it should not be (though no follow-up question was asked about the reasons for
these opposing views). (Note that while not shown, among only those 1,594 aware of
any such deaths, somewhat more support the release of information about the
reasons behind them: 77%).
“Which prominent people have died or been killed in recent months that
you know of?” (MULTIPLE RESPONSE)
55%
43%
40%
6%
4%
1%
1%
17%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Hon. Muchai
Otieno Kajwang’
Fidel Odinga
Mutula Kilonzo
George Saitoti
Orwa Ojode
Meshack Yebei
Can't remember/None/Don't Know
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
12. Page 12 of 17
Political Party Alignment
In terms of declared political party/coalition alignment, Jubilee continues to enjoy a
clear if modest advantage, without about a quarter more of Kenyans associating with
it or its affiliated parties than those identifying themselves with CORD or its affiliated
parties (43% vs. 32%).
13. Page 13 of 17
Raila Odinga’s Political Future
Recently, controversy has arisen with regard to the bill passed in parliament
providing for pensions for both former prime minister Raila Odinga and former vice-
president Kalonzo Musyoka, which the President subsequently refused to sign on
the grounds that such benefits would only be appropriate when they had retired from
politics – specifically, renouncing any intention to contest future elections, something
with these two CORD ‘principals’ have vigorously rejected.
Raila’s Future Political Options
Among all respondents, one third are of the view that Raila should indeed “retire
from politics completely”, with a statistically identical proportion (34%) holding the
opposite view: that he should remain active and even contest the next presidential
election should he desire to do so (and receive his party’s/coalition’s nomination, of
course).
“Which political party do you feel closest to, if any?”
(By Coalitions Showing Affiliated Parties)
18%
11%
9%
4%
1%
20%
6% 5%
1% 1% 1% 1%
4%
16%
Jubilee affiliated parties =43% CORD affiliated
parties=32%
Others
=3%
Shy=20%
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
14. Page 14 of 17
In terms of political party/coalition alignment, the gap in terms of the options is
considerable however. Over five times more CORD than Jubilee supporters would
like to see him contest again (67% vs. 14%), with the numbers even more reversed
regarding the “retire from politics completely” option (Jubilee supporters – 53%,
CORD supporters – 8%; note here that in May, 2014, 11% of CORD supporters felt
he should not contest a future election, so it will be interesting to see in future
surveys how much lower this current figure of 8% will go).
Indeed, in terms of trends, the proportion of those wanting him to contest has risen a
significant 10% since Ipsos 4th
Quarter SPEC survey of last year, though reaching a
figure only statistically equal to what it had been in all other surveys since the March,
2013 election (i.e., between 32% and 36%).
“Which of the following regarding Raila Odinga's future is closest
to your view?” (By Total, CORD vs. Jubilee Supporters)
33%
8%
53%
27%
24%
29%
34%
67%
14%
5%
1% 3%
Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=624) Jubilee Supporters (n=871)
He should retire from politics completely
He should continue to lead/work with his political party but should not contest the next election
He should remain active in his party and even contest the presidency in the next election if he
wants
Not Sure/NR
15. Page 15 of 17
These options regarding the former prime minister’s political future are also
correlated with perceptions about the public’s confidence in IEBC “to run the next
elections.” Here, a strong contrast emerges between those who do feel the IEBC
has enough public confidence to do this and those who do not. For example, among
those who prefer that Raila retires from politics completely, a clear majority (56%)
believe the public has sufficient confidence in the IEBC to manage the next
elections. Conversely, among those who want him to contest the next election, more
than three quarters (77%) do not think the IEBC has sufficient confidence among the
public to manage them.
“Which of the following regarding Raila Odinga's future is closest
to your view?” (Trend Analysis)
36%
39%
35%
40%
37%
42%
33%
28% 25% 24%
21%
26%
25%
27%
32%
32%
36%
35% 34%
24%
34%
4% 4%
6%
4% 4%
8%
5%
June 2013
(n=2,000)
November 2013
(n=2,060)
February 2014
(n=2,031)
May 2014
(n=2,059)
September
2014 (n=2,021)
November 2014
(n=2,005)
April (n=1,964)
He should retire from politics completely
He should continue to lead/work with his political party but should not contest the next election
He should remain active in his party and even contest the presidency in the next election if he
wants
Not Sure/No Response
16. Page 16 of 17
Perhaps most significant, given the fact that the Okoa-Kenya referendum campaign
has made reform/replacement of the IEBC one of its major planks, is that nearly half
of those who would like Raila to retire (44%) do not feel the IEBC is ‘fit’ (at least as it
is presently constituted/structured) to manage the next elections (itself a reflection of
the fact that, as noted above, only 42% feel that it does have the requisite among of
public confidence).
Concluding Comment
As seen in past results, while many of the issues covered in this Media Release
remain quite constant over time in terms of public attitudes, others are more subject
to significant change, based on actual events that occur in the public sphere. As
such, except for those issues that are very temporary/transient, Ipsos will continue to
track them in future surveys so as to determine just which way ‘the wind is blowing’,
at least as far as public awareness and opinion are concerned.
Perceived Confidence in the IEBC to Manage the Next General
Election by 3 Preferences Regarding Raila’s Future
56%
45%
27%
44%
55%
73%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Raila should retire from politics
completely (N=657)
Raila should continue to
lead/work with his political
party but not contest any seat
in the future (N=540)
Raila should remain active in
his party and even contest the
presidency again in 2017 if he
wants to (N=660)
YES NO
17. Page 17 of 17
Survey Methodology
The target population for this survey was Kenyans aged 18 years and above, of whom 1,964
living in urban and rural areas were interviewed. The margin-of-error attributed to sampling
and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 with a 95% confidence level.
The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 28th
March and 7th
April 2015. Data
was collected through face-to-face interviews using hand held devices (smart phones). Ipsos
Limited (Kenya) funded the survey.
As is always the case, the full data-set for this survey in SPSS and Excel or any parts
thereof are available for purchase from Ipsos.
For further details on this press release or commercial enquiries please contact:
Dr. Tom Wolf Victor Rateng
Research Analyst Opinion Polls Project Manager
tpwolf1944@gmail.com victor.rateng@ipsos.com
Tel: 386 2721-33 Tel: 386 2721-33
www.ipsos.co.ke www.ipsos.co.ke