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SPEC Barometer: Performance Ratings
Press Release: General Media
Prepared by: Ipsos
Release date: 27th May 2015
 Current confidence ratings:
 Jubilee leadership
 Other senior government officials
 Government institutions
 Independent commissions
 Non-state actors
 Trend analysis: Selected confidence ratings
• Top government officials
• IEBC
 Performance comparison: Jubilee vs. Grand-coalition government in 13 policy
areas
 Total, CORD vs. Jubilee supporters
 Trend analysis: total combined positive vs. negative performance ratings
2
Contents
3
Methodology
Methodology
4
Dates of polling 28th March - 7th April 2015
Sample Size 1,964
Sampling methodology
Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS
(proportionate to population size)
Universe
Data collection
methodology
Sampling error
Face-to-Face interviews at the household level
Poll funding Ipsos Limited
Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above living
in Urban and Rural areas
+/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level
(Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)
Sample Structure Statistics
5
Region
Sample Frame statistics
(April 2015)
*Weighted data
%
Population Census as at 2009
Adults (18 years +)
%
Central 257 13 2,548,038 13
Coast 173 9 1,711,549 9
Eastern 293 15 2,907,293 15
Nairobi 206 10 2,042,770 10
North Eastern 94* 5 929,158 5
Nyanza 257 13 2,547,980 13
Rift Valley 484 25 4,795,482 25
Western 200 10 1,980,090 10
TOTAL 1,964 100 19,462,360 100
Quality Control Measures
 For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout
 Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their
households to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).
 After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: an
independent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of the
respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said
respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).
 Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes and
longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the
interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.
 Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure
conformity to the sample’s statistical parameters.
6
Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highest
possible integrity of obtained results/data
7
Respondents’
Demographic Profile:
28%
2%
30%
8%
11%
9%
10%
1%
1%
9%
22%
28%
23%
4%
4%
2%
5%
1%
2%
Catholic
Catholic Charismatic
Mainstream Protestant (ACK,…
SDA
Evangelical
Other Christian
Muslim
Refused To Answer/None
No religion
Public Sector wages/salary
Private sector wages /salary
Gains from self employment/…
Agriculture (own/household farm)
Livestock
Given money by others
Pension from previous employment
Other
Don’t Know
Refused To Answer
Demographic Profile
10%
9%
13%
25%
5%
15%
13%
10%
51%
49%
28%
29%
18%
25%
37%
63%
100%
Nairobi
Coast
Nyanza
Rift Valley
North Eastern
Eastern
Central
Western
Female
Male
18 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45+
Urban
Rural
Kenyans
8
Region
Gender
Age
Setting
Religion
Nationality
Source of Household Income
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
Demographic Profile
4%
14%
19%
14%
26%
8%
7%
3%
3%
1%
42%
33%
11%
4%
1%
1%
0%
2%
7%
No formal education
Some primary education
Primary education completed
Some secondary education
Secondary education completed
Some middle level college (not…
Completed mid-level college (Not…
Some University education
University education completed
Post Graduate (Masters, MBA, PhD)
Less than 10,000
10,001 – 25,000
25,001 – 40,000
40,001 – 55,000
55,001 – 75,000
75,001 – 100,000
100,001 and above
Has No income
RTA/DK
9
Level of Education
Monthly Household Income (ALL
members of the Household)
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
Demographic Profile
41%
18%
11%
10%
7%
5%
5%
2%
1%
Self-Employed
Unemployed
Employed in the private sector
Peasant/herder (own farm/pasture)
Casual labour
Employed in the public sector
Student
Retired
Other
10
Employment Status
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
11
Performance Ratings
“How much confidence you have in each of the following
institutions/public office holders. Do you have…?” (The Executive)
(% for “some confidence” / “only a little confidence” not shown)
12
48%
35%
19%
19%
18%
14%
10%
11%
22%
15%
18%
19%
25%
24%
President Uhuru Kenyatta
Deputy President Ruto
William
National Government in
general
County
Commissioners/Provincial
Administration Officers
The Attorney-General
Githu Muigai
The Cabinet Secretaries
Department of Immigration
A LOT NONE
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
Level of Confidence: The Executive
% saying “a lot of confidence” by Jubilee Vs. CORD Supporters
Institution/Public Office Holder
Jubilee Supporters
(n=871)
CORD
Supporters
(n=624)
%
Difference
The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) 68% 22% -46%
The Deputy President (William Ruto) 55% 12% -43%
Cabinet Secretaries 18% 9% -9%
The Attorney General : Githu Muigai 25% 13% -12%
County Commissioners/Provincial
Administration Officers
21% 19% -2%
Department of Immigration 10% 11% -1%
National Government in general 24% 13% -11%
13
Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence”
(% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence, ”no confidence at all” not shown)
14
53%
41%
32%
43%
71%
51%
67%
48%
48%
38%
27%
38%
62%
42%
63%
35%
18%
11% 11%
17%
42%
19%
14%
23%
14% 12%
19%
48%
22%
18%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
November
2013
February
2014
May 2014 September
2014
*October
2014
November
2014
*December
2014
April 2015
The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) The Deputy President (William Ruto)
Cabinet Secretaries The Attorney General : Githu Muigai
**N/A
**N/A: Not Asked
*CATI surveys
President’s ICC status
conference
ICC case against the
President withdrawn
Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence”
(% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence, ”no confidence at all” not shown)
15
Institution/Public Office
Holder
November
2013
February
2014
May
2014
September
2014
October
2014
November
2014
December
2014
April 2015
The President (Uhuru
Kenyatta)
53% 41% 32% 43% 71% 51% 67% 48%
The Deputy President
(William Ruto)
48% 38% 27% 38% 62% 42% 63% 35%
Cabinet Secretaries 18% 11% 11% 17% 48% 19% - 14%
The Attorney General :
Githu Muigai
23% 14% 12% 19% 42% 22% - 18%
County
Commissioners/Provincial
Administration Officers
- - - 14% - 19% - 19%
Department of Immigration 16% 7% 8% 10% - 12% - 10%
National Government in
general
- - - 27% - 26% - 19%
“How much confidence do you have in each of the following…?”
County Governments
(% for “some confidence", "only a little confidence” not shown)
16
22%
21%
20%
19%
14%
20%
22%
25%
County Governments (in
general)
Governors
Your County Assembly
Representative (MCA)
Senators
A LOT NONE
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
“How much confidence do you have in each of the following…?”
Security Services & the Judiciary
(% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence” not shown)
17
32%
22%
21%
16%
15%
15%
15%
15%
12%
9%
17%
14%
19%
31%
14%
20%
16%
15%
The Military/Kenya Defense
Forces
Chief Justice Willy Mutunga
The Supreme Court
Judges of the Kenyan Courts
The Police
Inspector General of Police
(Joseph Boinnet)
The Judiciary
Intelligence Service/National
Intelligence Services
Other Courts
A LOT NONE
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
“How much confidence you have in each of the following …?”
Current and Former Public Officials
(% for “some confidence”, “only a little confidence” not shown)
18
55%
29%
22%
19%
18%
18%
18%
15%
14%
8%
30%
20%
14%
32%
31%
23%
27%
23%
First Lady Margaret Kenyatta
CORD Principal Raila Odinga
Your Member of Parliament
Political Parties
CORD Principal Kalonzo Musyoka
CORD Principal Senator Moses Wetangula
Opposition
Majority Leader Aden Duale
Speaker of the National Assembly Justin Muturi
A LOT NONE
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
“How much confidence you have in each of the following …?”
Civil Society/Independent Institutions
(% for “some confidence”, “only a little confidence” not shown)
19
46%
43%
33%
22%
21%
16%
13%
11%
11%
10%
10%
9%
4%
8%
4%
7%
6%
28%
19%
21%
15%
26%
21%
29%
The Media
Your religious leaders
Ipsos
Opinion Survey Firms
Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs)/Civil Society
Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC)
Communications Authority of Kenya (CA)
Director of Public Prosecutions Keriako Tobiko
Independent Police Oversight Authority (IPOA)
National Land Commission
Salaries and Remuneration Commission
Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission
A LOT NONE
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
20
Confidence Ratings:
November 2013 – April 2015
Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence”
(% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence, ”no confidence at all” not shown)
21
Institution/Public Office Holder
Nov. 2013 Feb. 2014 May 2014
Sept.
2014
Oct.
2014
Nov.
2014
Dec.
2014
April
2015
The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) 53% 41% 32% 43% 71% 51% 67% 48%
The Deputy President (William Ruto) 48% 38% 27% 38% 62% 42% 63% 35%
Cabinet Secretaries 18% 11% 11% 17% 48% 19% - 14%
The Attorney General : Githu Muigai 23% 14% 12% 19% 42% 22% - 18%
County Commissioners/Provincial Administration
Officers - - - 14% - 18% - 19%
Department of Immigration 16% 7% 8% 10% - 12% - 10%
National Government in general - - - 27% - 26% - 19%
County Assembly Representatives (MCAs) - - - 21% - 20% - 20%
County Governments 28% 13% 13% 20% - 22% - 22%
Governors - - - 23% - 25% - 21%
Senators 21% 11% 13% 19% - 23% - 19%
The Media 68% 43% 31% 42% - 42% - 46%
Religious Leaders 50% 39% 36% 46% - 35% - 43%
Civil Society/NGOs - - - 18% - 28% 45% 21%
Opinion Survey Firms - - 20% 22% - 25% - 22%
Ipsos Limited (Kenya) - - - 33% - 34% - 33%
National Land Commission 16% 7% 9% 14% - 14% - 10%
Salaries and Remuneration Commission (SRC) 23% 13% 12% 13% - 13% - 10%
Independent Electoral and Boundaries
Commission (IEBC) 30% 21% 16% 23% - 23% - 16%
Director of Public Prosecutions 32% 8% 10% 12% - 15% - 11%
Ethics and Anti Corruption Commission (EACC) - - - - - 11% - 9%
Independent Police Oversight Authority (IPOA) - - - - - - - 11%
Communications Authority of Kenya (CA) - - - - - - - 13%
Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence”
(% for “some confidence” , “only a little confidence, "no confidence at all” not shown)
22
Institution/Public Office Holder
Nov. 2013
Feb.
2014 May 2014
Sept.
2014
Oct.
2014
Nov.
2014
Dec.
2014
April
2015
The Police 20% 11% 11% 19% - 18% - 15%
Inspector-General of Police: David Kimaiyo 24% 12% 15% 19% - 19%
Inspector-General of Police: Joseph Boinnet - 15%
Cabinet Secretary for Interior: Joseph Nkaissery - - - - - - 48%
Intelligence Service/National Intelligence Services
(NIS) 18% 10% 10% 16% - 16% - 15%
The Military/Kenya Defense Forces - - 27% 37% - 48% - 32%
The Judiciary - - 17% - 17% - 15%
The Supreme Court 28% 16% 16% 20% - 25% - 21%
Other Courts 21% 12% 9% 13% - 15% - 12%
The Chief Justice: Willy Mutunga 27% 16% 15% 24% - 27% - 22%
Judges of the Kenyan Courts - - - 16% - - - 16%
Political Parties - 7% 10% 22% - 19% - 19%
CORD Principal Raila Odinga 37% 25% 24% 28% - 24% - 29%
CORD Principal Kalonzo Musyoka - - - 20% - 16% - 18%
CORD Principal Senator Moses Wetangula - - - 19% - 15% - 18%
Retired President Kibaki - - - 27% - - - -
Retired President Moi - - - 26% - - - -
National Assembly /Parliament 15% - 15% - 11%
Speaker of the National Assembly: Justin Muturi 19% 12% 12% 16% - 15% - 14%
Majority Leader :Aden Duale - - - 16% - 18% - 15%
Your Member of Parliament /MPs 17% 9% 11% 23% - 22% - 22%
First Lady Margaret Kenyatta - - - 39% - 50% - 55%
The Opposition - - - - - 16% 42% 18%
23
Confidence Ratings:
IEBC Trend Analysis
(February 2013 – April 2015)
“Please tell me how much confidence you have in the IEBC…?”
(Trend Analysis – Only shown for: “a lot of confidence” and “no
confidence at all”)
24
62%
32%
30%
21%
16%
23% 23%
16%2%
22%
32%
25%
29% 31%
25%
28%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
February
2013
(n=5,971)
June 2013
(n=2,000)
November
2013
(n=2,060)
February
2014
(n=2,031)
May 2014
(n=2,059)
September
2014
(n=2,021)
November
2014
(n=2,005)
April 2015
(n=1,964)
A lot of Confidence No Confidence at all
25
Policy Performance:
Jubilee vs. Grand
Coalition Govt
Jubilee vs. Grand Coalition Government Performance on 13 Policy
Areas (By Total, Supporters of Main Political Parties/Coalitions)
26Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
Jubilee: Policy Areas Better Worse % Difference Same Not Sure
Economic growth 38% 48% -10% 13% 1%
Cost of living 25% 63% -38% 12% 1%
Education 52% 30% +22% 17% 0%
Human rights 27% 44% -17% 26% 3%
Corruption 14% 73% -59% 12% 1%
Crime 13% 71% -58% 14% 2%
Terrorism 10% 79% -69% 10% 2%
Freedom to criticize the government 25% 44% -19% 27% 4%
Wildlife protection 29% 34% -5% 30% 7%
Land issues 20% 62% -42% 15% 2%
Environmental conservation 31% 33% -2% 30% 5%
Medical /Health Services 61% 24% +37% 15% 1%
Respect for the constitution/rule of law 27% 37% -10% 30% 7%
Total positive difference =59%
Total negative difference =329%
For further information contact:
Dr Tom Wolf
Social Political Consultant
tpwolf1944@gmail.com
Victor Rateng
Project Manager - Opinion Polls
victor.rateng@ipsos.com
Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe
27

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Confidence Ratings: Public Officials and Independent Institutions

  • 1. © 2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. SPEC Barometer: Performance Ratings Press Release: General Media Prepared by: Ipsos Release date: 27th May 2015
  • 2.  Current confidence ratings:  Jubilee leadership  Other senior government officials  Government institutions  Independent commissions  Non-state actors  Trend analysis: Selected confidence ratings • Top government officials • IEBC  Performance comparison: Jubilee vs. Grand-coalition government in 13 policy areas  Total, CORD vs. Jubilee supporters  Trend analysis: total combined positive vs. negative performance ratings 2 Contents
  • 4. Methodology 4 Dates of polling 28th March - 7th April 2015 Sample Size 1,964 Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Universe Data collection methodology Sampling error Face-to-Face interviews at the household level Poll funding Ipsos Limited Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above living in Urban and Rural areas +/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level (Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)
  • 5. Sample Structure Statistics 5 Region Sample Frame statistics (April 2015) *Weighted data % Population Census as at 2009 Adults (18 years +) % Central 257 13 2,548,038 13 Coast 173 9 1,711,549 9 Eastern 293 15 2,907,293 15 Nairobi 206 10 2,042,770 10 North Eastern 94* 5 929,158 5 Nyanza 257 13 2,547,980 13 Rift Valley 484 25 4,795,482 25 Western 200 10 1,980,090 10 TOTAL 1,964 100 19,462,360 100
  • 6. Quality Control Measures  For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout  Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their households to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).  After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: an independent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of the respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).  Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes and longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.  Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure conformity to the sample’s statistical parameters. 6 Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highest possible integrity of obtained results/data
  • 8. 28% 2% 30% 8% 11% 9% 10% 1% 1% 9% 22% 28% 23% 4% 4% 2% 5% 1% 2% Catholic Catholic Charismatic Mainstream Protestant (ACK,… SDA Evangelical Other Christian Muslim Refused To Answer/None No religion Public Sector wages/salary Private sector wages /salary Gains from self employment/… Agriculture (own/household farm) Livestock Given money by others Pension from previous employment Other Don’t Know Refused To Answer Demographic Profile 10% 9% 13% 25% 5% 15% 13% 10% 51% 49% 28% 29% 18% 25% 37% 63% 100% Nairobi Coast Nyanza Rift Valley North Eastern Eastern Central Western Female Male 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45+ Urban Rural Kenyans 8 Region Gender Age Setting Religion Nationality Source of Household Income Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  • 9. Demographic Profile 4% 14% 19% 14% 26% 8% 7% 3% 3% 1% 42% 33% 11% 4% 1% 1% 0% 2% 7% No formal education Some primary education Primary education completed Some secondary education Secondary education completed Some middle level college (not… Completed mid-level college (Not… Some University education University education completed Post Graduate (Masters, MBA, PhD) Less than 10,000 10,001 – 25,000 25,001 – 40,000 40,001 – 55,000 55,001 – 75,000 75,001 – 100,000 100,001 and above Has No income RTA/DK 9 Level of Education Monthly Household Income (ALL members of the Household) Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  • 10. Demographic Profile 41% 18% 11% 10% 7% 5% 5% 2% 1% Self-Employed Unemployed Employed in the private sector Peasant/herder (own farm/pasture) Casual labour Employed in the public sector Student Retired Other 10 Employment Status Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  • 12. “How much confidence you have in each of the following institutions/public office holders. Do you have…?” (The Executive) (% for “some confidence” / “only a little confidence” not shown) 12 48% 35% 19% 19% 18% 14% 10% 11% 22% 15% 18% 19% 25% 24% President Uhuru Kenyatta Deputy President Ruto William National Government in general County Commissioners/Provincial Administration Officers The Attorney-General Githu Muigai The Cabinet Secretaries Department of Immigration A LOT NONE Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  • 13. Level of Confidence: The Executive % saying “a lot of confidence” by Jubilee Vs. CORD Supporters Institution/Public Office Holder Jubilee Supporters (n=871) CORD Supporters (n=624) % Difference The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) 68% 22% -46% The Deputy President (William Ruto) 55% 12% -43% Cabinet Secretaries 18% 9% -9% The Attorney General : Githu Muigai 25% 13% -12% County Commissioners/Provincial Administration Officers 21% 19% -2% Department of Immigration 10% 11% -1% National Government in general 24% 13% -11% 13
  • 14. Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence” (% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence, ”no confidence at all” not shown) 14 53% 41% 32% 43% 71% 51% 67% 48% 48% 38% 27% 38% 62% 42% 63% 35% 18% 11% 11% 17% 42% 19% 14% 23% 14% 12% 19% 48% 22% 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% November 2013 February 2014 May 2014 September 2014 *October 2014 November 2014 *December 2014 April 2015 The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) The Deputy President (William Ruto) Cabinet Secretaries The Attorney General : Githu Muigai **N/A **N/A: Not Asked *CATI surveys President’s ICC status conference ICC case against the President withdrawn
  • 15. Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence” (% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence, ”no confidence at all” not shown) 15 Institution/Public Office Holder November 2013 February 2014 May 2014 September 2014 October 2014 November 2014 December 2014 April 2015 The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) 53% 41% 32% 43% 71% 51% 67% 48% The Deputy President (William Ruto) 48% 38% 27% 38% 62% 42% 63% 35% Cabinet Secretaries 18% 11% 11% 17% 48% 19% - 14% The Attorney General : Githu Muigai 23% 14% 12% 19% 42% 22% - 18% County Commissioners/Provincial Administration Officers - - - 14% - 19% - 19% Department of Immigration 16% 7% 8% 10% - 12% - 10% National Government in general - - - 27% - 26% - 19%
  • 16. “How much confidence do you have in each of the following…?” County Governments (% for “some confidence", "only a little confidence” not shown) 16 22% 21% 20% 19% 14% 20% 22% 25% County Governments (in general) Governors Your County Assembly Representative (MCA) Senators A LOT NONE Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  • 17. “How much confidence do you have in each of the following…?” Security Services & the Judiciary (% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence” not shown) 17 32% 22% 21% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 12% 9% 17% 14% 19% 31% 14% 20% 16% 15% The Military/Kenya Defense Forces Chief Justice Willy Mutunga The Supreme Court Judges of the Kenyan Courts The Police Inspector General of Police (Joseph Boinnet) The Judiciary Intelligence Service/National Intelligence Services Other Courts A LOT NONE Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  • 18. “How much confidence you have in each of the following …?” Current and Former Public Officials (% for “some confidence”, “only a little confidence” not shown) 18 55% 29% 22% 19% 18% 18% 18% 15% 14% 8% 30% 20% 14% 32% 31% 23% 27% 23% First Lady Margaret Kenyatta CORD Principal Raila Odinga Your Member of Parliament Political Parties CORD Principal Kalonzo Musyoka CORD Principal Senator Moses Wetangula Opposition Majority Leader Aden Duale Speaker of the National Assembly Justin Muturi A LOT NONE Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  • 19. “How much confidence you have in each of the following …?” Civil Society/Independent Institutions (% for “some confidence”, “only a little confidence” not shown) 19 46% 43% 33% 22% 21% 16% 13% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9% 4% 8% 4% 7% 6% 28% 19% 21% 15% 26% 21% 29% The Media Your religious leaders Ipsos Opinion Survey Firms Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs)/Civil Society Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) Communications Authority of Kenya (CA) Director of Public Prosecutions Keriako Tobiko Independent Police Oversight Authority (IPOA) National Land Commission Salaries and Remuneration Commission Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission A LOT NONE Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  • 21. Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence” (% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence, ”no confidence at all” not shown) 21 Institution/Public Office Holder Nov. 2013 Feb. 2014 May 2014 Sept. 2014 Oct. 2014 Nov. 2014 Dec. 2014 April 2015 The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) 53% 41% 32% 43% 71% 51% 67% 48% The Deputy President (William Ruto) 48% 38% 27% 38% 62% 42% 63% 35% Cabinet Secretaries 18% 11% 11% 17% 48% 19% - 14% The Attorney General : Githu Muigai 23% 14% 12% 19% 42% 22% - 18% County Commissioners/Provincial Administration Officers - - - 14% - 18% - 19% Department of Immigration 16% 7% 8% 10% - 12% - 10% National Government in general - - - 27% - 26% - 19% County Assembly Representatives (MCAs) - - - 21% - 20% - 20% County Governments 28% 13% 13% 20% - 22% - 22% Governors - - - 23% - 25% - 21% Senators 21% 11% 13% 19% - 23% - 19% The Media 68% 43% 31% 42% - 42% - 46% Religious Leaders 50% 39% 36% 46% - 35% - 43% Civil Society/NGOs - - - 18% - 28% 45% 21% Opinion Survey Firms - - 20% 22% - 25% - 22% Ipsos Limited (Kenya) - - - 33% - 34% - 33% National Land Commission 16% 7% 9% 14% - 14% - 10% Salaries and Remuneration Commission (SRC) 23% 13% 12% 13% - 13% - 10% Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) 30% 21% 16% 23% - 23% - 16% Director of Public Prosecutions 32% 8% 10% 12% - 15% - 11% Ethics and Anti Corruption Commission (EACC) - - - - - 11% - 9% Independent Police Oversight Authority (IPOA) - - - - - - - 11% Communications Authority of Kenya (CA) - - - - - - - 13%
  • 22. Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence” (% for “some confidence” , “only a little confidence, "no confidence at all” not shown) 22 Institution/Public Office Holder Nov. 2013 Feb. 2014 May 2014 Sept. 2014 Oct. 2014 Nov. 2014 Dec. 2014 April 2015 The Police 20% 11% 11% 19% - 18% - 15% Inspector-General of Police: David Kimaiyo 24% 12% 15% 19% - 19% Inspector-General of Police: Joseph Boinnet - 15% Cabinet Secretary for Interior: Joseph Nkaissery - - - - - - 48% Intelligence Service/National Intelligence Services (NIS) 18% 10% 10% 16% - 16% - 15% The Military/Kenya Defense Forces - - 27% 37% - 48% - 32% The Judiciary - - 17% - 17% - 15% The Supreme Court 28% 16% 16% 20% - 25% - 21% Other Courts 21% 12% 9% 13% - 15% - 12% The Chief Justice: Willy Mutunga 27% 16% 15% 24% - 27% - 22% Judges of the Kenyan Courts - - - 16% - - - 16% Political Parties - 7% 10% 22% - 19% - 19% CORD Principal Raila Odinga 37% 25% 24% 28% - 24% - 29% CORD Principal Kalonzo Musyoka - - - 20% - 16% - 18% CORD Principal Senator Moses Wetangula - - - 19% - 15% - 18% Retired President Kibaki - - - 27% - - - - Retired President Moi - - - 26% - - - - National Assembly /Parliament 15% - 15% - 11% Speaker of the National Assembly: Justin Muturi 19% 12% 12% 16% - 15% - 14% Majority Leader :Aden Duale - - - 16% - 18% - 15% Your Member of Parliament /MPs 17% 9% 11% 23% - 22% - 22% First Lady Margaret Kenyatta - - - 39% - 50% - 55% The Opposition - - - - - 16% 42% 18%
  • 23. 23 Confidence Ratings: IEBC Trend Analysis (February 2013 – April 2015)
  • 24. “Please tell me how much confidence you have in the IEBC…?” (Trend Analysis – Only shown for: “a lot of confidence” and “no confidence at all”) 24 62% 32% 30% 21% 16% 23% 23% 16%2% 22% 32% 25% 29% 31% 25% 28% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% February 2013 (n=5,971) June 2013 (n=2,000) November 2013 (n=2,060) February 2014 (n=2,031) May 2014 (n=2,059) September 2014 (n=2,021) November 2014 (n=2,005) April 2015 (n=1,964) A lot of Confidence No Confidence at all
  • 25. 25 Policy Performance: Jubilee vs. Grand Coalition Govt
  • 26. Jubilee vs. Grand Coalition Government Performance on 13 Policy Areas (By Total, Supporters of Main Political Parties/Coalitions) 26Base: All Respondents (n=1,964) Jubilee: Policy Areas Better Worse % Difference Same Not Sure Economic growth 38% 48% -10% 13% 1% Cost of living 25% 63% -38% 12% 1% Education 52% 30% +22% 17% 0% Human rights 27% 44% -17% 26% 3% Corruption 14% 73% -59% 12% 1% Crime 13% 71% -58% 14% 2% Terrorism 10% 79% -69% 10% 2% Freedom to criticize the government 25% 44% -19% 27% 4% Wildlife protection 29% 34% -5% 30% 7% Land issues 20% 62% -42% 15% 2% Environmental conservation 31% 33% -2% 30% 5% Medical /Health Services 61% 24% +37% 15% 1% Respect for the constitution/rule of law 27% 37% -10% 30% 7% Total positive difference =59% Total negative difference =329%
  • 27. For further information contact: Dr Tom Wolf Social Political Consultant tpwolf1944@gmail.com Victor Rateng Project Manager - Opinion Polls victor.rateng@ipsos.com Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe 27