SlideShare a Scribd company logo
F E B R U A R Y 1 , 2 0 1 6
Election 2016 – Iowa Caucuses
M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y / I O W A N S
PAGE 3
M O S T I M P ORTAN T I S S UE S: T E R R ORIS M N O T A S I M P O RTA NT T O
I O WA R E P U BL ICA NS; H E A LTH C A R E M O R E I M P O RTANT F O R I O WA
D E M O CRAT S
Which of these is most important to you when choosing who to support for a presidential nomination?
Source: Quinnipiac, December 16-20, 2015 (National), January 25-31, 2016 (Iowa)
27%
30%
11%
8%
4%
10%
0% 0% 2% 4%
1%
34%
10%
3% 1%
10%
14%
8% 6%
2% 4% 3%
Economy
and jobs
Terrorism Immigration Federal
deficit
Health care Foreign
policy
Climate
change
Race
relations
Abortion Gun policy Taxes
27%
15%
11% 9%
5%
8%
0% 0%
5%
8%
2%
36%
4% 2% 3%
22%
6%
11%
3% 2% 3% 2%
Economy
and jobs
Terrorism Immigration Federal
deficit
Health care Foreign
policy
Climate
change
Race
relations
Abortion Gun policy Taxes
Republicans
Democrats
NationalIowa
PAGE 4
AT T R IB UTES V O T ERS A R E L O O K ING F O R I N T H E I R PA R TY ’S
N O M I NE E N AT IO NALLY A N D I N I O WA
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 18-24, 2016
Democrats Republicans
Shares values 19% 20%
Cares about
needs/problems
28% 13%
Strong leadership 16% 29%
Honest/Trustworthy 14% 21%
Rightexperience 16% 8%
Bestchance ofwinning 6% 7%
Thinking about your party’s nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you?
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015
NATIONALLY IOWA
Democrats Republicans
Shares values 16% 26%
Cares about
needs/problems
26% 9%
Strong leadership 13% 26%
Honest/Trustworthy 17% 24%
Rightexperience 18% 6%
Bestchance ofwinning 9% 7%
PAGE 5
L I K E LY R E P U BL ICA N C A U CUS G O E RS I N I O WA T H I N K E L E C TIO N
I S M O R E A B O U T L E A DE RSHI P; L I K E LY D E M O CRATI C C A U C US
G O E R S T H I N K I T ’ S A B O UT I S S U ES
Do you think this election is more about leadership or more about issues candidates stand for?
Source: The Iowa Poll, conducted January 7-10, 2016 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co.
52%
40%
30%
57%
Leadership Issues
Republicans Democrats
Note: “Something else,” and “Not
sure” results not shown
PAGE  6
N AT I ONA LLY, V O T ERS WA N T C H A N GE O V E R E X P ERI ENC E; L I K E LY
I O WA C A U C US G O E R S R E F L ECT T H I S S E N TI MENT
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, January 9-13,2016
Thinking about the2016 presidential elections,which of the
following statementscomes closers to your point of view?
36%
61%
3%
Depends /
Not sure
Statement A:
This is a time
when it is
important to look
for a more
experienced and
tested person
even if he or she
brings fewer
changes to the
current policies.
Statement B: This
is a time when it
is important to
look for a person
who will bring
greater changes
to the current
policies even if he
or she is less
experienced and
tested.
Would you say you feel betrayed by politicians from your
political party, or not?
53%
44%
29%
68%
Yes
No
Republicans
Democrats
NATIONALLY IOWA
I O W A C A U C U S
PAGE 8
H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R D E MOCRATS
Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR
Only registered Democrats are eligible to participatealthoughthe party does offer same-day registration.
1,683 Democratic caucuses will be held at more than 1,000locations. They start at 8 p.m.
EST and can last an hour or more. Thereare 44 delegates to the national conventionthatcan
be won through this process. Note: Eight more unpledged party leaders and elected officials
get to go straight to the national convention from Iowa ("superdelegates”).
Here's what happens on caucus night:
1. Supporters make the case for their candidates.
2. Caucus goers separate intogroups in corners or parts of the room for their candidates of
choice.
3. When the groups are formed, theelected chair adds up how many supporters are in each
cluster. Each candidatehas to meet a viability threshold of 15 percent.
4. If a candidate is determined not to be viable,that candidate's supporters have to choose
another candidate.
5. During the re-caucusing process, supporters from the viable candidates try to sway the
nonviable candidate's voters to their side.
6. Once the re-caucusing is settled and all remaining candidates are deemed viable, the
numbers are tallied.
PAGE 9
H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R R E P U BL ICAN S
Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR
Only registered Republicansare eligible to participatealthoughthe party does offer same-day registration.
GOP caucuses will be held at about 700 locations.They also start at 8 p.m. EST and
last about an hour. Thirty delegates are at stakeof the1,236 needed to be the GOP
nominee.
Here's what happens on caucus night:
1. Presidential candidate representatives speak and make their case.
2. Caucus goers pick a candidate throughpaper ballot. In past years, depending on
the size of the caucus, this could havebeendonethrough a show of hands.Unlike
Democrats, the Republicans have no15 percent threshold.
3. Votes are tallied and reported to party headquarters.
R E P U B L I C A N S
PAGE 11
T R U M P J U M PS A H E AD O F C R U Z A S W E
N E A R T H E F I N I SH L I N E I N I O WA ; L AT E
J U M P B Y R U B I O
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016
10%
8% 8%
7%
6% 6% 5% 4% 4%
7%
7% 7%
8%
9%
14%
26%
28%
24%
7% 6%
6%
6%
9%
11%
12%
12%
17%
8%
15%
20%
23% 23% 23%
26%
28%
31%
9%
11%
13%
18%
22% 22%
13%
8% 8%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2016 Republican Primary Preference
Among RepublicanandRepublicanleaning voters
Bush Cruz Rubio Trump Carson
Candidate Average
Donald Trump 30.7%
Ted Cruz 23.8%
Marco Rubio 17.4%
Ben Carson 7.7%
Jeb Bush 3.9%
Rand Paul 3.9%
Mike Huckabee 3.1%
John Kasich 2.6%
Chris Christie 2.3%
Carly Fiorina 2.1%
Rick Santorum 1.2%
Jim Gilmore 0.0%
HuffPost Pollster Trend
as of February 1, 2016
PAGE 12
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls, national polls, and endorsements
PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster
1%
4%
29%
66%
Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz
Donald Trump
PredictWiseChance ofWinningIowa Caucuses
As ofFebruary 1st
46%
38%
14%
1%
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Ben Carson
FiveThirtyEight.comChance ofWinningIowaCaucuses
As ofFebruary 1st
Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016 PAGE 13
I O WA N S S H O W G R E ATER I N T E NSI TY O F S U P P ORT F O R T R U MP &
C R U Z O V E R R U B I O
76%
58%
40%
18%
31%
43%
5%
11%
15%
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Strongly support Somewhat support Might vote differently
Would you say you strongly support [candidate] or somewhat support
[candidate], or do you think you might vote differently on Caucus Day?
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016 PAGE 14
M A J O RI TY O F I O WA R E P U B LIC ANS H AV E M A D E U P T H E I R M I N D S
O N A C A N D IDAT E; M O R E T H A N A T H I R D S AY T H E Y D E F I NIT ELY
D O N ’ T WA N T T R UM P
72%
81%
74%
63%
28%
18%
26%
37%
Total Trump
supporter
Cruz
supporter
Rubio
supporter
Made up Mightchange
Is your mind made up, or do you think you might
change your mind before the primary?
7%
9%
10%
12%
13%
15%
21%
35%
Carson
Rubio
Paul
Christie
Kasich
Cruz
Bush
Trump
Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not
support for the Republican nomination for president?
Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 15
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS N O T C O N TA CTE D B Y A
C A N D ID ATE; A Q U A R TER H AV E H E A RD F R O M C R U Z C A M PA IGN
Yes
45%No
55%
Did anyone contact you personally to ask
you to caucus for a particular candidate?
9%
12%
5%
25%
8%
4%
7%
4%
9%
17%
5%
13%
IF YES: For which candidate were you asked to caucus?
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 16
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Pollsters have noted differences in their results when they change their assumptions about voter turnout. Trump's success in particular depends onfirst-
time voters registering and showing up to caucus.A recent MonmouthUniversity poll found that when likely Iowa caucus-goers are polled, Trump leads
Cruz 30 percent to 23 percent. However, whenthepollster narrows thesample size to registered Republicans whohavea history of voting,the odds shift
in Cruz's favor and he leads Trump 28 percent to 23 percent.
Monmouth's poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers is based on an estimate of170,000 voters coming out, whichsurpasses Iowa's 122,000 record turnout in
2012. Increasing the turnout estimateto 200,000gives Trump an 11-point lead,while decreasing it to 130,000ties the two opponents at 26percent.
2. Fickle Voters
According to a Quinnipiacpoll of likely Republican caucus-goers, 28percent of those whosupport a candidatesay theycould change their mind by
election day.
3. Momentum Shifts: Rubio
In 2012, the Republican Iowacaucuses saw a lot of last-minuteshifting in the polls. Although former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was ahead going
into the caucuses, polls did pick up on former PennsylvaniaSen. Rick Santorum’s big upswing, which ultimately led him to narrowly prevail over Romney.
No candidate is climbing at the rate Santorum was right before the 2012caucuses. Butthat doesn’t rule out thepossibility of a surprise, especially given
the projected differences in outcomebased on turnout. Onepossibility -- although it looks like a slim one -- is that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio gains
momentum or benefits from higher turnoutamong thosewho prefer an “establishment” candidateover Trump or Cruz.
D E M O C R A T S
PAGE 18
C L I N TON ’S L E A D O V E R S A N DER S C O N TI NUES T O S H R I NK I N
I O WA
Candidate Average
Hillary Clinton 47.7%
Bernie Sanders 44.6%
Martin O’Malley 3.7%
HuffPost Pollster Trend
as of February 1st
, 2016
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016
18%
21%
27% 29% 32% 34%
37%
42%
45%
56% 54%
50% 48% 48% 51% 51%
48% 48%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2016 Democratic Primary Preference
Among registered/leaned Democrats
Sanders Clinton
PAGE 19
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
27%
73%
Bernie
Sanders
Hillary
Clinton
PredictWise Chance of Winning Iowa Caucuses
As of February 1st
34%
66%
Bernie
Sanders
Hillary
Clinton
FiveThirtyEight.com Chance of Winning Iowa Caucuses
As of February 1st
Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls, national polls, and endorsements
PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster
PAGE 20
M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS I N I O WA H AV E T H E IR M I N D M A D E U P ;
I N T E NS ITY O F S U P P ORT I S S T R O NG F O R B O T H C A N DI DATE S
85% 84% 87%
14% 15% 12%
Total Clinton
supporter
Sanders
supporter
Made up Mightchange
Is your mind made up, or do you think you might
change your mind before the primary?
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016
79%
76%
15%
15%
4%
7%
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Strongly support Somewhatsupport Mightvote differently
Would you say you strongly support [candidate] or somewhat support
[candidate], or do you think you might vote differently on Caucus Day?
Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016
Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 21
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS C O N TACTE D B Y A
C A N D ID ATE; N E A RLY H A L F H AV E H E A R D F R O M C L I N TON
Yes
62%
No
37%
Did anyone contact you personally to ask
you to caucus for a particular candidate?
49%
15%
38%
Clinton O'Malley Sanders
IF YES: For which candidate were you asked to caucus?
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 22
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Sanders’ success relies heavily on young and first-time voters showing up to caucus. Polls haveconsistently found his support sky-high among younger
voters and Clinton’s stronger among older voters.
People under the age of 29 havemade up 9-17 percentof Iowa caucus-goers in the last five presidential elections. With theexceptionof 2008,which
saw a record number of young voters, on averageonly 3-4 percent of eligible caucus-goers under 29 show up to voteon election day. If Sanders
motivates this group to turn out, hecould upset Clinton.
2. Fickle Voters
A recent Quinnipiacpoll of likely Democratic caucus-goers shows 1 in 7 voters who support a candidate say there's a chance they could changetheir
mind by the time they cast their vote. The formatof the caucus provides opportunities for voters to changetheir minds, so thosewaffling ontheir choice
could be convinced to changecandidates.
3. Momentum Shifts: O’Malley
According to the HuffPost pollster average,O'Malley reels in only 4 percent of Democrats, well below the15 percent threshold for a candidate tobe
considered viable. In most caucus locations, O’Malley supporters will be forced to chooseanother candidate. There’s noreal guidance in thepolls on
what O’Malley’s supporters will do, though, sincethereare so few of them. It's hard to say who those 4 percentwill support on caucus day, and with a
race this tight, which way they swing could affect theoutcome.
1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor
Washington, DC 20004
121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor
New York, NY 10010
202.337.0808 | GPG.COM
GPG Research
The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs
firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all
manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs.
Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research
methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our
clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it.
For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)

More Related Content

What's hot

Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2016
Public Opinion Landscape  - Election 2016 Public Opinion Landscape  - Election 2016
Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2016
GloverParkGroup
 
Election 2016 – RNC & DNC Recap
Election 2016 – RNC & DNC RecapElection 2016 – RNC & DNC Recap
Election 2016 – RNC & DNC Recap
GloverParkGroup
 
Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2016
Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2016Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2016
Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2016
GloverParkGroup
 
American Public Opinion Landscape – International Affairs
American Public Opinion Landscape – International AffairsAmerican Public Opinion Landscape – International Affairs
American Public Opinion Landscape – International Affairs
GloverParkGroup
 
Public Opinion Landscape – Election 2016 – Iowa Caucuses
Public Opinion Landscape – Election 2016 – Iowa CaucusesPublic Opinion Landscape – Election 2016 – Iowa Caucuses
Public Opinion Landscape – Election 2016 – Iowa Caucuses
Sarah Bonn
 
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
GloverParkGroup
 
2014: Post Election Analysis
2014: Post Election Analysis2014: Post Election Analysis
2014: Post Election Analysis
GloverParkGroup
 
GPG’s Initial Post Election Analysis
GPG’s Initial Post Election AnalysisGPG’s Initial Post Election Analysis
GPG’s Initial Post Election Analysis
GloverParkGroup
 
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
GloverParkGroup
 
Public Opinion Landscape: Economy 5.25.16
Public Opinion Landscape: Economy 5.25.16Public Opinion Landscape: Economy 5.25.16
Public Opinion Landscape: Economy 5.25.16
GloverParkGroup
 
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
GloverParkGroup
 
A Tale of Two Kyles: How Ad Data Exposed My ID Theft
A Tale of Two Kyles: How Ad Data Exposed My ID TheftA Tale of Two Kyles: How Ad Data Exposed My ID Theft
A Tale of Two Kyles: How Ad Data Exposed My ID Theft
Kyle J. Britt
 
The Public Opinion Landscape: From Obama to Trump
The Public Opinion Landscape: From Obama to TrumpThe Public Opinion Landscape: From Obama to Trump
The Public Opinion Landscape: From Obama to Trump
GloverParkGroup
 
Public Opinion Landscape
Public Opinion Landscape Public Opinion Landscape
Public Opinion Landscape
GloverParkGroup
 
International Affairs Public Opinion Landscape
International Affairs Public Opinion Landscape     International Affairs Public Opinion Landscape
International Affairs Public Opinion Landscape
GloverParkGroup
 
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
GloverParkGroup
 
GPG Survey of Trump Voters, December 2016
GPG Survey of Trump Voters, December 2016GPG Survey of Trump Voters, December 2016
GPG Survey of Trump Voters, December 2016
GloverParkGroup
 
The 2016 Election - How and why it's President Trump
The 2016 Election - How and why it's President TrumpThe 2016 Election - How and why it's President Trump
The 2016 Election - How and why it's President Trump
LangerResearch
 
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
Sarah Bonn
 
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
Sarah Bonn
 

What's hot (20)

Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2016
Public Opinion Landscape  - Election 2016 Public Opinion Landscape  - Election 2016
Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2016
 
Election 2016 – RNC & DNC Recap
Election 2016 – RNC & DNC RecapElection 2016 – RNC & DNC Recap
Election 2016 – RNC & DNC Recap
 
Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2016
Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2016Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2016
Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2016
 
American Public Opinion Landscape – International Affairs
American Public Opinion Landscape – International AffairsAmerican Public Opinion Landscape – International Affairs
American Public Opinion Landscape – International Affairs
 
Public Opinion Landscape – Election 2016 – Iowa Caucuses
Public Opinion Landscape – Election 2016 – Iowa CaucusesPublic Opinion Landscape – Election 2016 – Iowa Caucuses
Public Opinion Landscape – Election 2016 – Iowa Caucuses
 
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
 
2014: Post Election Analysis
2014: Post Election Analysis2014: Post Election Analysis
2014: Post Election Analysis
 
GPG’s Initial Post Election Analysis
GPG’s Initial Post Election AnalysisGPG’s Initial Post Election Analysis
GPG’s Initial Post Election Analysis
 
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
 
Public Opinion Landscape: Economy 5.25.16
Public Opinion Landscape: Economy 5.25.16Public Opinion Landscape: Economy 5.25.16
Public Opinion Landscape: Economy 5.25.16
 
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
 
A Tale of Two Kyles: How Ad Data Exposed My ID Theft
A Tale of Two Kyles: How Ad Data Exposed My ID TheftA Tale of Two Kyles: How Ad Data Exposed My ID Theft
A Tale of Two Kyles: How Ad Data Exposed My ID Theft
 
The Public Opinion Landscape: From Obama to Trump
The Public Opinion Landscape: From Obama to TrumpThe Public Opinion Landscape: From Obama to Trump
The Public Opinion Landscape: From Obama to Trump
 
Public Opinion Landscape
Public Opinion Landscape Public Opinion Landscape
Public Opinion Landscape
 
International Affairs Public Opinion Landscape
International Affairs Public Opinion Landscape     International Affairs Public Opinion Landscape
International Affairs Public Opinion Landscape
 
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
 
GPG Survey of Trump Voters, December 2016
GPG Survey of Trump Voters, December 2016GPG Survey of Trump Voters, December 2016
GPG Survey of Trump Voters, December 2016
 
The 2016 Election - How and why it's President Trump
The 2016 Election - How and why it's President TrumpThe 2016 Election - How and why it's President Trump
The 2016 Election - How and why it's President Trump
 
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
 
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
 

Viewers also liked

Things That Don't Matter in Your Presentation!
Things That Don't Matter in Your Presentation!Things That Don't Matter in Your Presentation!
Things That Don't Matter in Your Presentation!
Ayman Sadiq
 
How To Become... LORD OF THE SLIDES
How To Become... LORD OF THE SLIDESHow To Become... LORD OF THE SLIDES
How To Become... LORD OF THE SLIDES
Paul Brown
 
The Death of Polling?
The Death of Polling?The Death of Polling?
The Death of Polling?
Ipsos UK
 
The True Timeline Behind The People vs. O.J. Simpson
The True Timeline Behind The People vs. O.J. SimpsonThe True Timeline Behind The People vs. O.J. Simpson
The True Timeline Behind The People vs. O.J. Simpson
Instant Checkmate
 
Why Are You Attracted to That Person?
Why Are You Attracted to That Person? Why Are You Attracted to That Person?
Why Are You Attracted to That Person?
SlideShop.com
 
Updated: Syrian Refugees in Turkey
Updated: Syrian Refugees in TurkeyUpdated: Syrian Refugees in Turkey
Updated: Syrian Refugees in Turkey
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
 
UNHCR Refugee Response in Lebanon - March 2015
UNHCR Refugee Response in Lebanon - March 2015UNHCR Refugee Response in Lebanon - March 2015
UNHCR Refugee Response in Lebanon - March 2015
United Nations in Brussels
 
Social Media Marketing: Politics and Utilities
Social Media Marketing: Politics and UtilitiesSocial Media Marketing: Politics and Utilities
Social Media Marketing: Politics and Utilities
Talking Finger, social media marketing agency
 
Updated Syrian Air Force and Air Defense Capabilities
Updated Syrian Air Force and Air Defense Capabilities Updated Syrian Air Force and Air Defense Capabilities
Updated Syrian Air Force and Air Defense Capabilities
Institute for the Study of War
 
Marketing strategies of the Aam Aadmi Party used in Delhi Assembly Elections
Marketing strategies of the Aam Aadmi Party used in Delhi Assembly ElectionsMarketing strategies of the Aam Aadmi Party used in Delhi Assembly Elections
Marketing strategies of the Aam Aadmi Party used in Delhi Assembly Elections
Kannan karthik
 
Humanitarian Action for Children 2013
Humanitarian Action for Children 2013Humanitarian Action for Children 2013
Humanitarian Action for Children 2013
UNICEF Publications
 
Understanding the Digital Revolution Through Love in the Digital Age
Understanding the Digital Revolution Through Love in the Digital AgeUnderstanding the Digital Revolution Through Love in the Digital Age
Understanding the Digital Revolution Through Love in the Digital Age
Trung Ho
 
Direct Marketing & Politics: Converting your audience when you're selling ideas
Direct Marketing & Politics: Converting your audience when you're selling ideasDirect Marketing & Politics: Converting your audience when you're selling ideas
Direct Marketing & Politics: Converting your audience when you're selling ideas
Michael Edwards
 
Social Studies - Transnational Terrorism
Social Studies - Transnational TerrorismSocial Studies - Transnational Terrorism
Social Studies - Transnational Terrorism
Goh Bang Rui
 
UP Election 2017
UP Election 2017 UP Election 2017
UP Election 2017
Sunil Mishra
 
Incorporating Technology - Report
Incorporating Technology - ReportIncorporating Technology - Report
Incorporating Technology - Report
Juan Escallon
 
When Women Thrive the World Prospers
When Women Thrive the World ProspersWhen Women Thrive the World Prospers
When Women Thrive the World Prospers
WISE
 
Entrepreneurial guide
Entrepreneurial guideEntrepreneurial guide
Entrepreneurial guide
Jai Sethi
 
Radical
RadicalRadical
Radical
Leyre Laliena
 
Как достичь эффективности в Яндекс. Маркете при помощи Google Analytics
Как достичь эффективности в Яндекс. Маркете при помощи Google Analytics Как достичь эффективности в Яндекс. Маркете при помощи Google Analytics
Как достичь эффективности в Яндекс. Маркете при помощи Google Analytics
MegaIndexTV
 

Viewers also liked (20)

Things That Don't Matter in Your Presentation!
Things That Don't Matter in Your Presentation!Things That Don't Matter in Your Presentation!
Things That Don't Matter in Your Presentation!
 
How To Become... LORD OF THE SLIDES
How To Become... LORD OF THE SLIDESHow To Become... LORD OF THE SLIDES
How To Become... LORD OF THE SLIDES
 
The Death of Polling?
The Death of Polling?The Death of Polling?
The Death of Polling?
 
The True Timeline Behind The People vs. O.J. Simpson
The True Timeline Behind The People vs. O.J. SimpsonThe True Timeline Behind The People vs. O.J. Simpson
The True Timeline Behind The People vs. O.J. Simpson
 
Why Are You Attracted to That Person?
Why Are You Attracted to That Person? Why Are You Attracted to That Person?
Why Are You Attracted to That Person?
 
Updated: Syrian Refugees in Turkey
Updated: Syrian Refugees in TurkeyUpdated: Syrian Refugees in Turkey
Updated: Syrian Refugees in Turkey
 
UNHCR Refugee Response in Lebanon - March 2015
UNHCR Refugee Response in Lebanon - March 2015UNHCR Refugee Response in Lebanon - March 2015
UNHCR Refugee Response in Lebanon - March 2015
 
Social Media Marketing: Politics and Utilities
Social Media Marketing: Politics and UtilitiesSocial Media Marketing: Politics and Utilities
Social Media Marketing: Politics and Utilities
 
Updated Syrian Air Force and Air Defense Capabilities
Updated Syrian Air Force and Air Defense Capabilities Updated Syrian Air Force and Air Defense Capabilities
Updated Syrian Air Force and Air Defense Capabilities
 
Marketing strategies of the Aam Aadmi Party used in Delhi Assembly Elections
Marketing strategies of the Aam Aadmi Party used in Delhi Assembly ElectionsMarketing strategies of the Aam Aadmi Party used in Delhi Assembly Elections
Marketing strategies of the Aam Aadmi Party used in Delhi Assembly Elections
 
Humanitarian Action for Children 2013
Humanitarian Action for Children 2013Humanitarian Action for Children 2013
Humanitarian Action for Children 2013
 
Understanding the Digital Revolution Through Love in the Digital Age
Understanding the Digital Revolution Through Love in the Digital AgeUnderstanding the Digital Revolution Through Love in the Digital Age
Understanding the Digital Revolution Through Love in the Digital Age
 
Direct Marketing & Politics: Converting your audience when you're selling ideas
Direct Marketing & Politics: Converting your audience when you're selling ideasDirect Marketing & Politics: Converting your audience when you're selling ideas
Direct Marketing & Politics: Converting your audience when you're selling ideas
 
Social Studies - Transnational Terrorism
Social Studies - Transnational TerrorismSocial Studies - Transnational Terrorism
Social Studies - Transnational Terrorism
 
UP Election 2017
UP Election 2017 UP Election 2017
UP Election 2017
 
Incorporating Technology - Report
Incorporating Technology - ReportIncorporating Technology - Report
Incorporating Technology - Report
 
When Women Thrive the World Prospers
When Women Thrive the World ProspersWhen Women Thrive the World Prospers
When Women Thrive the World Prospers
 
Entrepreneurial guide
Entrepreneurial guideEntrepreneurial guide
Entrepreneurial guide
 
Radical
RadicalRadical
Radical
 
Как достичь эффективности в Яндекс. Маркете при помощи Google Analytics
Как достичь эффективности в Яндекс. Маркете при помощи Google Analytics Как достичь эффективности в Яндекс. Маркете при помощи Google Analytics
Как достичь эффективности в Яндекс. Маркете при помощи Google Analytics
 

Similar to Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa Caucuses

The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
GloverParkGroup
 
Trump's First 100 Days
Trump's First 100 DaysTrump's First 100 Days
Trump's First 100 Days
GloverParkGroup
 
2014 Post-Election Analysis
2014 Post-Election Analysis2014 Post-Election Analysis
2014 Post-Election Analysis
WPA Intelligence
 
Public Affairs Council: 2018 State and Local Election Preview
Public Affairs Council: 2018 State and Local Election PreviewPublic Affairs Council: 2018 State and Local Election Preview
Public Affairs Council: 2018 State and Local Election Preview
Michael Cohen, Ph.D.
 
Certus Insights Special Report: Overview of Polling and Media Coverage on Imp...
Certus Insights Special Report: Overview of Polling and Media Coverage on Imp...Certus Insights Special Report: Overview of Polling and Media Coverage on Imp...
Certus Insights Special Report: Overview of Polling and Media Coverage on Imp...
Natalie Copeland
 
What the Hill?
What the Hill?What the Hill?
What the Hill?
Abdul-Hakim Shabazz
 
What Happened in 2016?
What Happened in 2016?What Happened in 2016?
What Happened in 2016?
Lake Research Partners
 
Midterm election recap
Midterm election recapMidterm election recap
Midterm election recap
GloverParkGroup
 
ThinkNow 2020 Election Report
ThinkNow 2020 Election ReportThinkNow 2020 Election Report
ThinkNow 2020 Election Report
ThinkNow
 
GPG Public Opinion Landscape (March 2018)
GPG Public Opinion Landscape (March 2018)GPG Public Opinion Landscape (March 2018)
GPG Public Opinion Landscape (March 2018)
GloverParkGroup
 
Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions: How the polls were wrong and how to fix...
Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions:  How the polls were wrong and how to fix...Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions:  How the polls were wrong and how to fix...
Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions: How the polls were wrong and how to fix...
chrisbrock54
 
Narrative Strategies Memo (September 2020)
Narrative Strategies Memo (September 2020)Narrative Strategies Memo (September 2020)
Narrative Strategies Memo (September 2020)
Andrew Fimka
 
Public Opinion Landscape - State of the Union
Public Opinion Landscape -  State of the Union Public Opinion Landscape -  State of the Union
Public Opinion Landscape - State of the Union
GloverParkGroup
 
9-26-2016 -- 2017 Policy Outlook & Implications
9-26-2016 -- 2017 Policy Outlook & Implications9-26-2016 -- 2017 Policy Outlook & Implications
9-26-2016 -- 2017 Policy Outlook & Implications
Paul Hoffmeister
 
The 2010 Political Landscape and the Influence of Indian American on Politics
The 2010 Political Landscape and the Influence of Indian American on PoliticsThe 2010 Political Landscape and the Influence of Indian American on Politics
The 2010 Political Landscape and the Influence of Indian American on Politics
Kathy Kulkarni
 
The 2020 election
The 2020 election   The 2020 election
The 2020 election
Alvaro Giorgetta
 
The 2020 election
The 2020 election   The 2020 election
The 2020 election
The Glover Park Group
 
Monmouth Indiana Poll
Monmouth Indiana PollMonmouth Indiana Poll
Monmouth Indiana Poll
Abdul-Hakim Shabazz
 
Smith Summary 2-2-16
Smith Summary 2-2-16Smith Summary 2-2-16
Smith Summary 2-2-16
Scott Miller
 

Similar to Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa Caucuses (19)

The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016
 
Trump's First 100 Days
Trump's First 100 DaysTrump's First 100 Days
Trump's First 100 Days
 
2014 Post-Election Analysis
2014 Post-Election Analysis2014 Post-Election Analysis
2014 Post-Election Analysis
 
Public Affairs Council: 2018 State and Local Election Preview
Public Affairs Council: 2018 State and Local Election PreviewPublic Affairs Council: 2018 State and Local Election Preview
Public Affairs Council: 2018 State and Local Election Preview
 
Certus Insights Special Report: Overview of Polling and Media Coverage on Imp...
Certus Insights Special Report: Overview of Polling and Media Coverage on Imp...Certus Insights Special Report: Overview of Polling and Media Coverage on Imp...
Certus Insights Special Report: Overview of Polling and Media Coverage on Imp...
 
What the Hill?
What the Hill?What the Hill?
What the Hill?
 
What Happened in 2016?
What Happened in 2016?What Happened in 2016?
What Happened in 2016?
 
Midterm election recap
Midterm election recapMidterm election recap
Midterm election recap
 
ThinkNow 2020 Election Report
ThinkNow 2020 Election ReportThinkNow 2020 Election Report
ThinkNow 2020 Election Report
 
GPG Public Opinion Landscape (March 2018)
GPG Public Opinion Landscape (March 2018)GPG Public Opinion Landscape (March 2018)
GPG Public Opinion Landscape (March 2018)
 
Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions: How the polls were wrong and how to fix...
Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions:  How the polls were wrong and how to fix...Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions:  How the polls were wrong and how to fix...
Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions: How the polls were wrong and how to fix...
 
Narrative Strategies Memo (September 2020)
Narrative Strategies Memo (September 2020)Narrative Strategies Memo (September 2020)
Narrative Strategies Memo (September 2020)
 
Public Opinion Landscape - State of the Union
Public Opinion Landscape -  State of the Union Public Opinion Landscape -  State of the Union
Public Opinion Landscape - State of the Union
 
9-26-2016 -- 2017 Policy Outlook & Implications
9-26-2016 -- 2017 Policy Outlook & Implications9-26-2016 -- 2017 Policy Outlook & Implications
9-26-2016 -- 2017 Policy Outlook & Implications
 
The 2010 Political Landscape and the Influence of Indian American on Politics
The 2010 Political Landscape and the Influence of Indian American on PoliticsThe 2010 Political Landscape and the Influence of Indian American on Politics
The 2010 Political Landscape and the Influence of Indian American on Politics
 
The 2020 election
The 2020 election   The 2020 election
The 2020 election
 
The 2020 election
The 2020 election   The 2020 election
The 2020 election
 
Monmouth Indiana Poll
Monmouth Indiana PollMonmouth Indiana Poll
Monmouth Indiana Poll
 
Smith Summary 2-2-16
Smith Summary 2-2-16Smith Summary 2-2-16
Smith Summary 2-2-16
 

More from GloverParkGroup

Navigating COVID-19 - May 26
Navigating COVID-19 - May 26Navigating COVID-19 - May 26
Navigating COVID-19 - May 26
GloverParkGroup
 
Report: Understanding Policy Influencers’ Priorities in a Post-COVID World
Report: Understanding Policy Influencers’ Priorities in a Post-COVID WorldReport: Understanding Policy Influencers’ Priorities in a Post-COVID World
Report: Understanding Policy Influencers’ Priorities in a Post-COVID World
GloverParkGroup
 
Navigating COVID-19
Navigating COVID-19Navigating COVID-19
Navigating COVID-19
GloverParkGroup
 
COVID-19 and The State of the Election
COVID-19 and The State of the ElectionCOVID-19 and The State of the Election
COVID-19 and The State of the Election
GloverParkGroup
 
Navigating COVID-19
Navigating COVID-19Navigating COVID-19
Navigating COVID-19
GloverParkGroup
 
2020 election test
2020 election test2020 election test
2020 election test
GloverParkGroup
 
GPG Public Opinion Landscape
GPG Public Opinion LandscapeGPG Public Opinion Landscape
GPG Public Opinion Landscape
GloverParkGroup
 
Recent GPG Poll Among Trump Voters
Recent GPG Poll Among Trump VotersRecent GPG Poll Among Trump Voters
Recent GPG Poll Among Trump Voters
GloverParkGroup
 
GPG Survey of Trump Voters, December 2016
GPG Survey of Trump Voters, December 2016GPG Survey of Trump Voters, December 2016
GPG Survey of Trump Voters, December 2016
GloverParkGroup
 
Public Opinion Landscape: Brexit
Public Opinion Landscape: Brexit Public Opinion Landscape: Brexit
Public Opinion Landscape: Brexit
GloverParkGroup
 

More from GloverParkGroup (10)

Navigating COVID-19 - May 26
Navigating COVID-19 - May 26Navigating COVID-19 - May 26
Navigating COVID-19 - May 26
 
Report: Understanding Policy Influencers’ Priorities in a Post-COVID World
Report: Understanding Policy Influencers’ Priorities in a Post-COVID WorldReport: Understanding Policy Influencers’ Priorities in a Post-COVID World
Report: Understanding Policy Influencers’ Priorities in a Post-COVID World
 
Navigating COVID-19
Navigating COVID-19Navigating COVID-19
Navigating COVID-19
 
COVID-19 and The State of the Election
COVID-19 and The State of the ElectionCOVID-19 and The State of the Election
COVID-19 and The State of the Election
 
Navigating COVID-19
Navigating COVID-19Navigating COVID-19
Navigating COVID-19
 
2020 election test
2020 election test2020 election test
2020 election test
 
GPG Public Opinion Landscape
GPG Public Opinion LandscapeGPG Public Opinion Landscape
GPG Public Opinion Landscape
 
Recent GPG Poll Among Trump Voters
Recent GPG Poll Among Trump VotersRecent GPG Poll Among Trump Voters
Recent GPG Poll Among Trump Voters
 
GPG Survey of Trump Voters, December 2016
GPG Survey of Trump Voters, December 2016GPG Survey of Trump Voters, December 2016
GPG Survey of Trump Voters, December 2016
 
Public Opinion Landscape: Brexit
Public Opinion Landscape: Brexit Public Opinion Landscape: Brexit
Public Opinion Landscape: Brexit
 

Recently uploaded

Gabriel Whitley's Motion Summary Judgment
Gabriel Whitley's Motion Summary JudgmentGabriel Whitley's Motion Summary Judgment
Gabriel Whitley's Motion Summary Judgment
Abdul-Hakim Shabazz
 
04062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
04062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf04062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
04062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
FIRST INDIA
 
Acolyte Episodes review (TV series)..pdf
Acolyte Episodes review (TV series)..pdfAcolyte Episodes review (TV series)..pdf
Acolyte Episodes review (TV series)..pdf
46adnanshahzad
 
EED - The Container Port PERFORMANCE INDEX 2023
EED - The Container Port PERFORMANCE INDEX 2023EED - The Container Port PERFORMANCE INDEX 2023
EED - The Container Port PERFORMANCE INDEX 2023
El Estrecho Digital
 
Hogan Comes Home: an MIA WWII crewman is returned
Hogan Comes Home: an MIA WWII crewman is returnedHogan Comes Home: an MIA WWII crewman is returned
Hogan Comes Home: an MIA WWII crewman is returned
rbakerj2
 
What Ukraine Has Lost During Russia’s Invasion
What Ukraine Has Lost During Russia’s InvasionWhat Ukraine Has Lost During Russia’s Invasion
What Ukraine Has Lost During Russia’s Invasion
LUMINATIVE MEDIA/PROJECT COUNSEL MEDIA GROUP
 
Hindustan Insider 2nd edition release now
Hindustan Insider 2nd edition release nowHindustan Insider 2nd edition release now
Hindustan Insider 2nd edition release now
hindustaninsider22
 
2015pmkemenhub163.pdf 2015pmkemenhub163.pdf
2015pmkemenhub163.pdf 2015pmkemenhub163.pdf2015pmkemenhub163.pdf 2015pmkemenhub163.pdf
2015pmkemenhub163.pdf 2015pmkemenhub163.pdf
CIkumparan
 
Letter-from-ECI-to-MeiTY-21st-march-2024.pdf
Letter-from-ECI-to-MeiTY-21st-march-2024.pdfLetter-from-ECI-to-MeiTY-21st-march-2024.pdf
Letter-from-ECI-to-MeiTY-21st-march-2024.pdf
bhavenpr
 
Resolutions-Key-Interventions-28-May-2024.pdf
Resolutions-Key-Interventions-28-May-2024.pdfResolutions-Key-Interventions-28-May-2024.pdf
Resolutions-Key-Interventions-28-May-2024.pdf
bhavenpr
 

Recently uploaded (10)

Gabriel Whitley's Motion Summary Judgment
Gabriel Whitley's Motion Summary JudgmentGabriel Whitley's Motion Summary Judgment
Gabriel Whitley's Motion Summary Judgment
 
04062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
04062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf04062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
04062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
Acolyte Episodes review (TV series)..pdf
Acolyte Episodes review (TV series)..pdfAcolyte Episodes review (TV series)..pdf
Acolyte Episodes review (TV series)..pdf
 
EED - The Container Port PERFORMANCE INDEX 2023
EED - The Container Port PERFORMANCE INDEX 2023EED - The Container Port PERFORMANCE INDEX 2023
EED - The Container Port PERFORMANCE INDEX 2023
 
Hogan Comes Home: an MIA WWII crewman is returned
Hogan Comes Home: an MIA WWII crewman is returnedHogan Comes Home: an MIA WWII crewman is returned
Hogan Comes Home: an MIA WWII crewman is returned
 
What Ukraine Has Lost During Russia’s Invasion
What Ukraine Has Lost During Russia’s InvasionWhat Ukraine Has Lost During Russia’s Invasion
What Ukraine Has Lost During Russia’s Invasion
 
Hindustan Insider 2nd edition release now
Hindustan Insider 2nd edition release nowHindustan Insider 2nd edition release now
Hindustan Insider 2nd edition release now
 
2015pmkemenhub163.pdf 2015pmkemenhub163.pdf
2015pmkemenhub163.pdf 2015pmkemenhub163.pdf2015pmkemenhub163.pdf 2015pmkemenhub163.pdf
2015pmkemenhub163.pdf 2015pmkemenhub163.pdf
 
Letter-from-ECI-to-MeiTY-21st-march-2024.pdf
Letter-from-ECI-to-MeiTY-21st-march-2024.pdfLetter-from-ECI-to-MeiTY-21st-march-2024.pdf
Letter-from-ECI-to-MeiTY-21st-march-2024.pdf
 
Resolutions-Key-Interventions-28-May-2024.pdf
Resolutions-Key-Interventions-28-May-2024.pdfResolutions-Key-Interventions-28-May-2024.pdf
Resolutions-Key-Interventions-28-May-2024.pdf
 

Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa Caucuses

  • 1. F E B R U A R Y 1 , 2 0 1 6 Election 2016 – Iowa Caucuses
  • 2. M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y / I O W A N S
  • 3. PAGE 3 M O S T I M P ORTAN T I S S UE S: T E R R ORIS M N O T A S I M P O RTA NT T O I O WA R E P U BL ICA NS; H E A LTH C A R E M O R E I M P O RTANT F O R I O WA D E M O CRAT S Which of these is most important to you when choosing who to support for a presidential nomination? Source: Quinnipiac, December 16-20, 2015 (National), January 25-31, 2016 (Iowa) 27% 30% 11% 8% 4% 10% 0% 0% 2% 4% 1% 34% 10% 3% 1% 10% 14% 8% 6% 2% 4% 3% Economy and jobs Terrorism Immigration Federal deficit Health care Foreign policy Climate change Race relations Abortion Gun policy Taxes 27% 15% 11% 9% 5% 8% 0% 0% 5% 8% 2% 36% 4% 2% 3% 22% 6% 11% 3% 2% 3% 2% Economy and jobs Terrorism Immigration Federal deficit Health care Foreign policy Climate change Race relations Abortion Gun policy Taxes Republicans Democrats NationalIowa
  • 4. PAGE 4 AT T R IB UTES V O T ERS A R E L O O K ING F O R I N T H E I R PA R TY ’S N O M I NE E N AT IO NALLY A N D I N I O WA Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 18-24, 2016 Democrats Republicans Shares values 19% 20% Cares about needs/problems 28% 13% Strong leadership 16% 29% Honest/Trustworthy 14% 21% Rightexperience 16% 8% Bestchance ofwinning 6% 7% Thinking about your party’s nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you? Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015 NATIONALLY IOWA Democrats Republicans Shares values 16% 26% Cares about needs/problems 26% 9% Strong leadership 13% 26% Honest/Trustworthy 17% 24% Rightexperience 18% 6% Bestchance ofwinning 9% 7%
  • 5. PAGE 5 L I K E LY R E P U BL ICA N C A U CUS G O E RS I N I O WA T H I N K E L E C TIO N I S M O R E A B O U T L E A DE RSHI P; L I K E LY D E M O CRATI C C A U C US G O E R S T H I N K I T ’ S A B O UT I S S U ES Do you think this election is more about leadership or more about issues candidates stand for? Source: The Iowa Poll, conducted January 7-10, 2016 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. 52% 40% 30% 57% Leadership Issues Republicans Democrats Note: “Something else,” and “Not sure” results not shown
  • 6. PAGE  6 N AT I ONA LLY, V O T ERS WA N T C H A N GE O V E R E X P ERI ENC E; L I K E LY I O WA C A U C US G O E R S R E F L ECT T H I S S E N TI MENT Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, January 9-13,2016 Thinking about the2016 presidential elections,which of the following statementscomes closers to your point of view? 36% 61% 3% Depends / Not sure Statement A: This is a time when it is important to look for a more experienced and tested person even if he or she brings fewer changes to the current policies. Statement B: This is a time when it is important to look for a person who will bring greater changes to the current policies even if he or she is less experienced and tested. Would you say you feel betrayed by politicians from your political party, or not? 53% 44% 29% 68% Yes No Republicans Democrats NATIONALLY IOWA
  • 7. I O W A C A U C U S
  • 8. PAGE 8 H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R D E MOCRATS Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR Only registered Democrats are eligible to participatealthoughthe party does offer same-day registration. 1,683 Democratic caucuses will be held at more than 1,000locations. They start at 8 p.m. EST and can last an hour or more. Thereare 44 delegates to the national conventionthatcan be won through this process. Note: Eight more unpledged party leaders and elected officials get to go straight to the national convention from Iowa ("superdelegates”). Here's what happens on caucus night: 1. Supporters make the case for their candidates. 2. Caucus goers separate intogroups in corners or parts of the room for their candidates of choice. 3. When the groups are formed, theelected chair adds up how many supporters are in each cluster. Each candidatehas to meet a viability threshold of 15 percent. 4. If a candidate is determined not to be viable,that candidate's supporters have to choose another candidate. 5. During the re-caucusing process, supporters from the viable candidates try to sway the nonviable candidate's voters to their side. 6. Once the re-caucusing is settled and all remaining candidates are deemed viable, the numbers are tallied.
  • 9. PAGE 9 H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R R E P U BL ICAN S Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR Only registered Republicansare eligible to participatealthoughthe party does offer same-day registration. GOP caucuses will be held at about 700 locations.They also start at 8 p.m. EST and last about an hour. Thirty delegates are at stakeof the1,236 needed to be the GOP nominee. Here's what happens on caucus night: 1. Presidential candidate representatives speak and make their case. 2. Caucus goers pick a candidate throughpaper ballot. In past years, depending on the size of the caucus, this could havebeendonethrough a show of hands.Unlike Democrats, the Republicans have no15 percent threshold. 3. Votes are tallied and reported to party headquarters.
  • 10. R E P U B L I C A N S
  • 11. PAGE 11 T R U M P J U M PS A H E AD O F C R U Z A S W E N E A R T H E F I N I SH L I N E I N I O WA ; L AT E J U M P B Y R U B I O Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016 10% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 14% 26% 28% 24% 7% 6% 6% 6% 9% 11% 12% 12% 17% 8% 15% 20% 23% 23% 23% 26% 28% 31% 9% 11% 13% 18% 22% 22% 13% 8% 8% June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2016 Republican Primary Preference Among RepublicanandRepublicanleaning voters Bush Cruz Rubio Trump Carson Candidate Average Donald Trump 30.7% Ted Cruz 23.8% Marco Rubio 17.4% Ben Carson 7.7% Jeb Bush 3.9% Rand Paul 3.9% Mike Huckabee 3.1% John Kasich 2.6% Chris Christie 2.3% Carly Fiorina 2.1% Rick Santorum 1.2% Jim Gilmore 0.0% HuffPost Pollster Trend as of February 1, 2016
  • 12. PAGE 12 P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls, national polls, and endorsements PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster 1% 4% 29% 66% Jeb Bush Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Donald Trump PredictWiseChance ofWinningIowa Caucuses As ofFebruary 1st 46% 38% 14% 1% Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Ben Carson FiveThirtyEight.comChance ofWinningIowaCaucuses As ofFebruary 1st
  • 13. Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016 PAGE 13 I O WA N S S H O W G R E ATER I N T E NSI TY O F S U P P ORT F O R T R U MP & C R U Z O V E R R U B I O 76% 58% 40% 18% 31% 43% 5% 11% 15% Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Strongly support Somewhat support Might vote differently Would you say you strongly support [candidate] or somewhat support [candidate], or do you think you might vote differently on Caucus Day?
  • 14. Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016 PAGE 14 M A J O RI TY O F I O WA R E P U B LIC ANS H AV E M A D E U P T H E I R M I N D S O N A C A N D IDAT E; M O R E T H A N A T H I R D S AY T H E Y D E F I NIT ELY D O N ’ T WA N T T R UM P 72% 81% 74% 63% 28% 18% 26% 37% Total Trump supporter Cruz supporter Rubio supporter Made up Mightchange Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? 7% 9% 10% 12% 13% 15% 21% 35% Carson Rubio Paul Christie Kasich Cruz Bush Trump Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president?
  • 15. Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 15 M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS N O T C O N TA CTE D B Y A C A N D ID ATE; A Q U A R TER H AV E H E A RD F R O M C R U Z C A M PA IGN Yes 45%No 55% Did anyone contact you personally to ask you to caucus for a particular candidate? 9% 12% 5% 25% 8% 4% 7% 4% 9% 17% 5% 13% IF YES: For which candidate were you asked to caucus?
  • 16. Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 16 FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA 1. Turnout Pollsters have noted differences in their results when they change their assumptions about voter turnout. Trump's success in particular depends onfirst- time voters registering and showing up to caucus.A recent MonmouthUniversity poll found that when likely Iowa caucus-goers are polled, Trump leads Cruz 30 percent to 23 percent. However, whenthepollster narrows thesample size to registered Republicans whohavea history of voting,the odds shift in Cruz's favor and he leads Trump 28 percent to 23 percent. Monmouth's poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers is based on an estimate of170,000 voters coming out, whichsurpasses Iowa's 122,000 record turnout in 2012. Increasing the turnout estimateto 200,000gives Trump an 11-point lead,while decreasing it to 130,000ties the two opponents at 26percent. 2. Fickle Voters According to a Quinnipiacpoll of likely Republican caucus-goers, 28percent of those whosupport a candidatesay theycould change their mind by election day. 3. Momentum Shifts: Rubio In 2012, the Republican Iowacaucuses saw a lot of last-minuteshifting in the polls. Although former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was ahead going into the caucuses, polls did pick up on former PennsylvaniaSen. Rick Santorum’s big upswing, which ultimately led him to narrowly prevail over Romney. No candidate is climbing at the rate Santorum was right before the 2012caucuses. Butthat doesn’t rule out thepossibility of a surprise, especially given the projected differences in outcomebased on turnout. Onepossibility -- although it looks like a slim one -- is that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio gains momentum or benefits from higher turnoutamong thosewho prefer an “establishment” candidateover Trump or Cruz.
  • 17. D E M O C R A T S
  • 18. PAGE 18 C L I N TON ’S L E A D O V E R S A N DER S C O N TI NUES T O S H R I NK I N I O WA Candidate Average Hillary Clinton 47.7% Bernie Sanders 44.6% Martin O’Malley 3.7% HuffPost Pollster Trend as of February 1st , 2016 Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016 18% 21% 27% 29% 32% 34% 37% 42% 45% 56% 54% 50% 48% 48% 51% 51% 48% 48% June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2016 Democratic Primary Preference Among registered/leaned Democrats Sanders Clinton
  • 19. PAGE 19 P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS 27% 73% Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton PredictWise Chance of Winning Iowa Caucuses As of February 1st 34% 66% Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton FiveThirtyEight.com Chance of Winning Iowa Caucuses As of February 1st Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls, national polls, and endorsements PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster
  • 20. PAGE 20 M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS I N I O WA H AV E T H E IR M I N D M A D E U P ; I N T E NS ITY O F S U P P ORT I S S T R O NG F O R B O T H C A N DI DATE S 85% 84% 87% 14% 15% 12% Total Clinton supporter Sanders supporter Made up Mightchange Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016 79% 76% 15% 15% 4% 7% Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Strongly support Somewhatsupport Mightvote differently Would you say you strongly support [candidate] or somewhat support [candidate], or do you think you might vote differently on Caucus Day? Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016
  • 21. Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 21 M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS C O N TACTE D B Y A C A N D ID ATE; N E A RLY H A L F H AV E H E A R D F R O M C L I N TON Yes 62% No 37% Did anyone contact you personally to ask you to caucus for a particular candidate? 49% 15% 38% Clinton O'Malley Sanders IF YES: For which candidate were you asked to caucus?
  • 22. Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 22 FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA 1. Turnout Sanders’ success relies heavily on young and first-time voters showing up to caucus. Polls haveconsistently found his support sky-high among younger voters and Clinton’s stronger among older voters. People under the age of 29 havemade up 9-17 percentof Iowa caucus-goers in the last five presidential elections. With theexceptionof 2008,which saw a record number of young voters, on averageonly 3-4 percent of eligible caucus-goers under 29 show up to voteon election day. If Sanders motivates this group to turn out, hecould upset Clinton. 2. Fickle Voters A recent Quinnipiacpoll of likely Democratic caucus-goers shows 1 in 7 voters who support a candidate say there's a chance they could changetheir mind by the time they cast their vote. The formatof the caucus provides opportunities for voters to changetheir minds, so thosewaffling ontheir choice could be convinced to changecandidates. 3. Momentum Shifts: O’Malley According to the HuffPost pollster average,O'Malley reels in only 4 percent of Democrats, well below the15 percent threshold for a candidate tobe considered viable. In most caucus locations, O’Malley supporters will be forced to chooseanother candidate. There’s noreal guidance in thepolls on what O’Malley’s supporters will do, though, sincethereare so few of them. It's hard to say who those 4 percentwill support on caucus day, and with a race this tight, which way they swing could affect theoutcome.
  • 23. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GPG Research The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs. Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)