This summary is based on results from Ipsos’ 1st Quarter SPEC survey of 2015 that was conducted between March 28 and April 7. It is the 9th such release. Given that the tragic attack on Garissa University College occurred on April 2, about 25% of the interviews took place after that date. However, in comparing the results obtained before and after April 2, their distribution was clearly affected more on some issues than others, or not at all. For example, the proportion of those perceiving al-Shabaab as “very much a threat” after April 2 was 14% higher than before that date. By contrast the results presented here (on issues unrelated to security, presidential approval, etc.) were not affected by that tragic attack.

1. © 2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and
may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
SPEC Barometer: Election and Political Issues
Press Release: General Media (9th Release of March-April Survey)
Prepared by: Ipsos
Release date: 30th May 2015

2.  Election Issues
 Knowledge of next election date
 Preference for next election date
 Awareness of any voter registration
 ICC Issues
 Outcome preferences regarding Ruto-Sang case
 Views on proposed Kenya withdrawal from ICC
 Views on proposed establishment of African Human Rights Court
 Political Issues: Deaths of Prominent People
 Awareness of deaths of prominent people
 Preference for revelation of cause of death
 Political Issues: Political Party/Coalition Alignment
 Political Issues: Raila Odinga’s Public Future
 Preference among three options
2
Contents

3. 3
Methodology

4. Methodology
4
Dates of polling 28th March - 7th April 2015
Sample Size 1,964
Sampling methodology
Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS
(proportionate to population size)
Universe
Data collection
methodology
Sampling error
Face-to-Face interviews at the household level
Poll funding Ipsos Limited
Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above living
in Urban and Rural areas
+/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level
(Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)

5. Sample Structure Statistics
5
Region
Sample Frame statistics
(April 2015)
*Weighted data
%
Population Census as at 2009
Adults (18 years +)
%
Central 257 13 2,548,038 13
Coast 173 9 1,711,549 9
Eastern 293 15 2,907,293 15
Nairobi 206 10 2,042,770 10
North Eastern 94* 5 929,158 5
Nyanza 257 13 2,547,980 13
Rift Valley 484 25 4,795,482 25
Western 200 10 1,980,090 10
TOTAL 1,964 100 19,462,360 100

6. Quality Control Measures
 For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout
 Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their
households to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).
 After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: an
independent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of the
respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said
respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).
 Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes and
longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the
interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.
 Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure
conformity to the sample’s statistical parameters.
6
Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highest
possible integrity of obtained results/data

7. 7
Respondents’
Demographic Profile:

8. 28%
2%
30%
8%
11%
9%
10%
1%
1%
9%
22%
28%
23%
4%
4%
2%
5%
1%
2%
Catholic
Catholic Charismatic
Mainstream Protestant (ACK,…
SDA
Evangelical
Other Christian
Muslim
Refused To Answer/None
No religion
Public Sector wages/salary
Private sector wages /salary
Gains from self employment/…
Agriculture (own/household farm)
Livestock
Given money by others
Pension from previous employment
Other
Don’t Know
Refused To Answer
Demographic Profile
10%
9%
13%
25%
5%
15%
13%
10%
51%
49%
28%
29%
18%
25%
37%
63%
100%
Nairobi
Coast
Nyanza
Rift Valley
North Eastern
Eastern
Central
Western
Female
Male
18 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45+
Urban
Rural
Kenyans
8
Region
Gender
Age
Setting
Religion
Nationality
Source of Household Income
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

9. Demographic Profile
4%
14%
19%
14%
26%
8%
7%
3%
3%
1%
42%
33%
11%
4%
1%
1%
0%
2%
7%
No formal education
Some primary education
Primary education completed
Some secondary education
Secondary education completed
Some middle level college (not…
Completed mid-level college (Not…
Some University education
University education completed
Post Graduate (Masters, MBA, PhD)
Less than 10,000
10,001 – 25,000
25,001 – 40,000
40,001 – 55,000
55,001 – 75,000
75,001 – 100,000
100,001 and above
Has No income
RTA/DK
9
Level of Education
Monthly Household Income (ALL
members of the Household)
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

10. Demographic Profile
41%
18%
11%
10%
7%
5%
5%
2%
1%
Self-Employed
Unemployed
Employed in the private sector
Peasant/herder (own farm/pasture)
Casual labour
Employed in the public sector
Student
Retired
Other
10
Employment Status
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

11. 11
Election Issues

12. % Who Know the Date of the Next Election (August, 2017):
by Total, Setting, Gender
12
78%
80%
76%
81%
74%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=1,964) Urban (n=729) Rural (n=1,235) Male (n=956) Female (n=1,008)

13. % Who Know Date of the Next Election (August, 2017): by Region
13
89%
84%
80% 79%
73%
70% 70%
56%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Central
(n=257)
Rift Valley
(n=484)
Eastern
(n=293)
Nyanza
(n=257)
Nairobi
(n=206)
Coast
(n=173)
North
Eastern
(n=94)
Western
(n=200)

14. % Who Support Changing the Date of the Next Election from
August to December, 2017: by Total, Setting, Gender and Main
Political Party/Coalition
14
64% 65% 64% 66%
63%
66% 67%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total
(n=1,964)
Urban (n=729) Rural
(n=1,235)
Male (n=956) Female
(n=1,008)
CORD
Supporters
(n=623)
Jubilee
Supporters
(867)

15. % Who Support Changing the Date of the Next Election from
August to December, 2017: by Region
15
80%
71%
68%
64%
58% 56%
53%
47%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Nyanza
(n=257)
Rift Valley
(n=484)
Central
(n=257)
Nairobi
(n=206)
North
Eastern
(n=94)
Western
(n=200)
Eastern
(n=293)
Coast
(n=173)

16. % Aware of Any Voter Registration in Their Locality Since Last
Election: by Total, Setting, Gender, Main Political Party/Coalition
16
20%
22%
18%
22%
17%
21% 22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Total
(n=1,964)
Urban
(n=729)
Rural
(n=1,235)
Male (n=956) Female
(n=1,008)
CORD
Supporters
(n=623)
Jubilee
Supporters
(n=867)

17. % Aware of Any Voter Registration in Their Locality Since Last
Election: by Region
17
37%
27% 27%
20%
17% 17%
15%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
North
Eastern
(n=94)
Central
(n=257)
Coast
(n=173)
Nairobi
(n=206)
Rift Valley
(n=484)
Nyanza
(n=257)
Eastern
(n=293)
Western
(n=200)

18. “Do you think voters will have enough confidence in the IEBC to
manage the next elections?”: by Total, Setting, Gender, Main
Political Party/Coalition
18
42%
35%
46%
43% 42%
21%
61%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total
(n=1,964)
Urban (n=729) Rural
(n=1,235)
Male (n=956) Female
(n=1,008)
CORD
Supporters
(n=623)
Jubilee
Supporters
(n=867)
% saying “YES”

19. “Do you think voters will have enough confidence in the IEBC to
manage the next elections?”: by Region
19
60%
56%
53%
48%
39%
28% 26%
22%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Central
(n=257)
North
Eastern
(n=94)
Rift Valley
(n=484)
Coast
(n=173)
Eastern
(n=293)
Nairobi
(n=206)
Western
(n=200)
Nyanza
(n=257)
% saying “YES”

20. Kenyan ICC Cases
and other ICC Issues
20

21. “What would you like to happen to the Ruto and Sang’ case?”
21
48%
33%
8%
5%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
It should be terminated/dropped completely
It should continue at the ICC as it is now
It should continue at the ICC but without the
presence of the accused
Not sure
It should be deferred for a year
There should be a fair trial
It should be referred to Kenyan courts
RTA
1) 88% of Kenyans correctly
mentioned William Ruto as
currently being tried at the ICC
2) 76% of Kenyans correctly
mentioned Joshua rap Sang’
Ruto as currently being tried at
the ICC
Base: Those aware of either William Ruto, Joshua arap Sang’ or
both as facing trial at the ICC (n=1,735)

22. “Whatever your view about this case….?”
22
26% 27%
24%
26%
33% 33%
16%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
How likely do you think it is that the Ruto
case will end in his conviction?
How likely do you think it is that there will
be any violence if Ruto is convicted?
Certainly will Possibly will Certainly NOT Not sure
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

23. “Do you support the proposal for Kenya to withdraw from the
ICC?”
23
50%
76%
69%
59%
50%
44%
41%
32%
24%
50%
24%
31%
41%
50%
56%
59%
68%
76%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total
(n=1,964)
Central
(n=257)
North
Eastern
(n=94)
Rift Valley
(n=484)
Eastern
(n=293)
Nairobi
(n=206)
Western
(n=200)
Nyanza
(n=257)
Coast
(n=173)
YES NO

24. “Do you support/oppose the proposal by the African Union to
establish an African Human rights court as a substitute for the
ICC?”
24
54%
32%
48%
43%
49%
53%
62% 63%
79%
40%
62%
50%
48%
45%
40%
34%
30%
17%
6% 6%
3%
9%
6% 7% 5% 7%
4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total
(n=1,964)
Nyanza
(n=257)
Nairobi
(n=206)
Western
(n=200)
Coast
(n=173)
Eastern
(n=293)
Rift Valley
(n=484)
North
Eastern
(n=94)
Central
(n=257)
Support Oppose Not sure

25. 25
Political Issues:
Deaths of Prominent
People

26. “Which prominent people have died or been killed in recent months that
you know of?” (MULTIPLE RESPONSE)
26
55%
43%
40%
6%
4%
1%
1%
17%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Hon. Muchai
Otieno Kajwang’
Fidel Odinga
Mutula Kilonzo
George Saitoti
Orwa Ojode
Meshack Yebei
Can't remember/None/Don't Know
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

27. “Do you think the cause of death in such cases should be revealed
to the public?” (By Total)
YES, 72%
NO, 17% Not Sure, 10%
27Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

28. 28
Political Issues:
Political Party/
Coalition Alignment

29. “Which political party do you feel closest to, if any?”
(By Coalitions Showing Affiliated Parties)
29
18%
11%
9%
4%
1%
20%
6% 5%
1% 1% 1% 1%
4%
16%
Jubilee affiliated parties =43% CORD affiliated
parties=32%
Others
=3%
Shy=20%
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

30. 30
Political Issues:
Raila’s Political Future

31. “Which of the following regarding Raila Odinga's future is closest
to your view?” (By Total, CORD vs. Jubilee Supporters)
31
33%
8%
53%
27%
24%
29%
34%
67%
14%
5%
1% 3%
Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=624) Jubilee Supporters (n=871)
He should retire from politics completely
He should continue to lead/work with his political party but should not contest the next election
He should remain active in his party and even contest the presidency in the next election if he
wants
Not Sure/NR

32. “Which of the following regarding Raila Odinga's future is closest
to your view?” (Trend Analysis)
32
36%
39%
35%
40%
37%
42%
33%
28% 25% 24%
21%
26%
25%
27%
32%
32%
36%
35% 34%
24%
34%
4% 4%
6%
4% 4%
8%
5%
June 2013
(n=2,000)
November 2013
(n=2,060)
February 2014
(n=2,031)
May 2014
(n=2,059)
September
2014 (n=2,021)
November 2014
(n=2,005)
April (n=1,964)
He should retire from politics completely
He should continue to lead/work with his political party but should not contest the next election
He should remain active in his party and even contest the presidency in the next election if he
wants
Not Sure/No Response

33. Perceived Confidence in the IEBC to Manage the Next General
Election by 3 Preferences Regarding Raila’s Future
56%
45%
27%
44%
55%
73%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Raila should retire from politics
completely (N=657)
Raila should continue to
lead/work with his political
party but not contest any seat
in the future (N=540)
Raila should remain active in
his party and even contest the
presidency again in 2017 if he
wants to (N=660)
YES NO
33
“Do you think voters will have enough confidence in the
IEBC to manage the next general election?”

34. For further information contact:
Dr Tom Wolf
Social Political Consultant
tpwolf1944@gmail.com
Victor Rateng
Project Manager - Opinion Polls
victor.rateng@ipsos.com
Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe
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