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SPEC Barometer
Press Release
Prepared by : Ipsos
Release date : 17th April 2015
 Survey Methodology
 Sample Demographics
 Issues:
1. Corruption
 Awareness and Type of Locality-Level Land-Grabbing
 Awareness of Effort to Recover Grabbed Land/Expectations of Success
 Awareness of Scandals Under the Jubilee Government
 Awareness of Chicken-Gate/Outcome-Expectations of Investigations
 Cabinet Secretaries the President Should Sack
 Perception of Impact of President’s Directive on Corruption
2. Somalia Issues
 Awareness of Presence of KDF in Somalia
 Perceived Impact of KDF Presence on Four Related Outcomes
2
Contents
Somalia Issues (Con’t)
 Preference on Policy-Options Regarding KDF Presence in Somalia
 General KDF Threat Level in Kenya
 Teachers’ Refusal to Return to Work in NE Kenya
3. Kenya’s Direction / Presidential Performance Approval Level
 Opinion on whether the country is headed in the right or wrong direction
 Approval Level of President’s Performance During the Last 3 Months
4. Digital Migration
 General Media Access
 TV and STB Ownership/Intentions to Buy a STB
 Awareness of February 14 Analog Switch-Off
 Attribution of Blame and Perceived Motivation for Switch-off
3
Contents (con’t)
Research Questions: Present and Future
1. How much of a contrast is there between Jubilee vs. CORD supporters, and
for which issues is such a contrast relevant?
2. How much did (which) results change before and after the Garissa attack (i.e.,
how transient/fluid are certain results, based on short-term events)?
3. How much will TV viewing patterns be permanently affected by the Digital
Migration in terms of: (a) total proportion watching TV; (b) shift in audiences
across stations/programmes?
4. How do Kenyans judge presidential performance?
4
Contents (con’t)
5
Methodology
Methodology
6
Dates of polling 28th March - 7th April 2015
Sample Size 1,964
Sampling methodology
Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS
(proportionate to population size)
Universe
Data collection
methodology
Sampling error
Face-to-Face interviews at the household level
Poll funding Ipsos Limited
Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above living
in Urban and Rural areas
+/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level
(Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)
Statistical Significance: Respondent Numbers and Error-Margins
for: Entire Sample, Before 2nd April , 2nd April and After 2nd April
1,964
1,364
193
4522.20%
2.60%
6.40%
4.60%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Total Before 2nd April 2nd April After 2nd April
Sample Size Error-Margin
7
Sample Structure Statistics
8
Region
Sample Frame statistics
(April 2015)
*Weighted data
%
Population Census as at 2009
Adults (18 years +)
%
Central 257 13 2,548,038 13
Coast 173 9 1,711,549 9
Eastern 293 15 2,907,293 15
Nairobi 206 10 2,042,770 10
North Eastern 94* 5 929,158 5
Nyanza 257 13 2,547,980 13
Rift Valley 484 25 4,795,482 25
Western 200 10 1,980,090 10
TOTAL 1,964 100 19,462,360 100
Quality Control Measures
 For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout
 Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their
households to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).
 After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: an
independent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of the
respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said
respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).
 Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes and
longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the
interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.
 Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure
conformity to the sample’s statistical parameters.
9
Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highest
possible integrity of obtained results/data
10
Respondents’
Demographic Profile:
28%
2%
30%
8%
11%
9%
10%
1%
1%
9%
22%
28%
23%
4%
4%
2%
5%
1%
2%
Catholic
Catholic Charismatic
Mainstream Protestant (ACK,…
SDA
Evangelical
Other Christian
Muslim
Refused To Answer/None
No religion
Public Sector wages/salary
Private sector wages /salary
Gains from self employment/…
Agriculture (own/household farm)
Livestock
Given money by others
Pension from previous employment
Other
Don’t Know
Refused To Answer
Demographic Profile
10%
9%
13%
25%
5%
15%
13%
10%
51%
49%
28%
29%
18%
25%
37%
63%
100%
Nairobi
Coast
Nyanza
Rift Valley
North Eastern
Eastern
Central
Western
Female
Male
18 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45+
Urban
Rural
Kenyans
11
Region
Gender
Age
Setting
Religion
Nationality
Source of Household Income
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
Demographic Profile
4%
14%
19%
14%
26%
8%
7%
3%
3%
1%
42%
33%
11%
4%
1%
1%
0%
2%
7%
No formal education
Some primary education
Primary education completed
Some secondary education
Secondary education completed
Some middle level college (not…
Completed mid-level college (Not…
Some University education
University education completed
Post Graduate (Masters, MBA, PhD)
Less than 10,000
10,001 – 25,000
25,001 – 40,000
40,001 – 55,000
55,001 – 75,000
75,001 – 100,000
100,001 and above
Has No income
RTA/DK
12
Level of Education
Monthly Household Income (ALL
members of the Household)
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
Demographic Profile
41%
18%
11%
10%
7%
5%
5%
2%
1%
Self-Employed
Unemployed
Employed in the private sector
Peasant/herder (own farm/pasture)
Casual labour
Employed in the public sector
Student
Retired
Other
13
Employment Status
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
14
Corruption
“Are you aware of any land in this locality that was public but is
now owned by a private individual/company due to corruption?”:
by Total, Region
15
15%
29%
24%
16%
11% 11% 10% 10%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Total
(n=1,964)
Coast
(n=173)
Nairobi
(n=206)
Rift Valley
(n=484)
Central
(n=257)
Nyanza
(n=257)
Eastern
(n=293)
North
Eastern
(n=94)
Western
(n=200)
% Saying “Yes”
Those Aware of Any Land in the Locality That Was Public But is
Now Owned by a Private Individual/Company Due to Corruption:
by Total, Region
16
15%
17%
15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=623) Jubilee Supporters (n=867)
Original Intended Use of the Grabbed Public Land:
by Those Aware of Any Such Land
17
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
9%
10%
28%
35%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Unspecified
Cemetery
Sports grounds
Coffee factory
Playground
Residential Land
Slaughterhouse
Nature/Wildlife/Forest
Defense/Military/Police
Infrastructure (Railway Line)
Medical Facility
Agricultural
Communal
School/Educational Facility
71% of Those Aware Believe Such Recovery
Efforts Will Succeed
34% - Aware of Efforts to Recover the Land
Awareness of Any Corruption Scandals Under the Jubilee
Government: by Total, Region
18
57%
74% 73%
60%
52% 50%
47% 45%
37%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total
(n=1,964)
Nairobi
(n=206)
Nyanza
(n=257)
Rift Valley
(n=484)
Central
(n=257)
Coast
(n=173)
Western
(n=200)
Eastern
(n=293)
North
Eastern
(n=94)
Awareness of Particular Corruption Scandals Under the Jubilee
Government (Multiple Response):
by Those Aware of Any Such Scandals (29 Mentions)
19
Base: n=1,114
6%
3%
4%
4%
5%
7%
7%
13%
17%
19%
23%
25%
31%
33%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Other
Lang'ata Primnary School Land Grab
Malili Ranch
Fake Pastors
KCSE Exam Leakage
Ruto Jet Hire
Government Officials (Unspecified)
Standard Gauge Railway
Laptop Project
Coast Land Issues
Police Recruitment Scandal
Anglo-Leasing
Karen Land
Chicken-Gate (IIEC/IEBC/Examinations council)
20
11%
17%
8%
23% 25% 25%
67%
58%
67%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=623) Jubilee Supporters (n=867)
Can Name More Than One Can Name One Can’t Name Any
Able to Name Any of the Individuals Named in Chicken-Gate:
by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions
“Do you think those mentioned actually received a bribe?”:
by Those Able to Mention at Least One Chicken-Gate Suspect -
Total, Region
21
71%
84%
79%
76%
72% 70% 69% 68%
45%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
% Saying “Yes”
22
30% 26%
38%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=467) CORD Supporters (n=214) Jubilee Supporters (n=180)
Those Confident That Those Named Will Be Convicted:
by Those Who Can Name Any of Those Mention in Chicken-Gate –
by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions
Those Who Believe Those Named Actually Received the Alleged Bribes: by
Those Who Can Name Any of Those Mentioned in Chicken-Gate - by Total,
Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions
71%
82%
63%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=659) CORD Supporters (n=261) Jubilee Supporters (n=284)
“Which cabinet secretaries, if any, do you think the President
should sack completely?” (Multiple Response): by Total
23Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
31%
26%
18%
4%
4%
5%
6%
7%
9%
12%
19%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
None
Don't Know Them
Others (8)
Davis Chirchir (Energy)
Rachelle Omamo (Defence)
Joseph Ole Nkaissery(Interior and Coordination of
National Gov't)
Michael Kamau (Transport and Infrastructure)
Felix Koskei (Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries)
Samuel Kazungu Kambi (Labour, Social Security, and
Services)
Jacob Kaimenyi (Education)
Charity Ngilu (Land, Housing, and Urban
Development)
“Which cabinet secretaries, if any, do you think the President
should sack completely?” (Multiple Response):
by Supporters of the Main Political Party/Coalitions
24
23%
22%
28%
5%
4%
7%
9%
7%
12%
17%
28%
35%
26%
15%
5%
3%
5%
3%
8%
8%
11%
15%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
None
Don't Know Them
Others
Davis Chirchir (Energy)
Raychelle Omamo (Defence)
Michael Kamau (Transport and
Infrastructure)
Joseph ole Nkaissery(Interior and
Coordination of National Gov't)
Felix Koskei (Agriculture, Livestock, and
Fisheries)
Samuel Kazungu Kambi (Labour, Social
Security, and Services)
Jacob Kaimenyi (Education)
Charity Ngilu (Land, Housing, and Urban
Development)
Jubilee Supporters (867)
CORD Supporters (623)
“Which cabinet secretaries, if any, do you think the President
should sack completely?” (Multiple Response): by Total (excluding
those who stated that they “don’t know them”)
25Base: (n=1,452)
26%
16%
12%
10%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
9%
42%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Charity Ngilu (Land, Housing and Urban Development)
Jacob Kaimenyi (Education)
Samuel Kazungu Kambi (Labour, Social Security and Services)
Felix Koskei (Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries)
Michael Kamau (Transport and Infrastructure)
Joseph Ole Nkaissery(Interior and Coordination of National G
Davis Chirchir (Energy and Petroleum)
Rayechelle Omamo (Defence)
Anne Waiguru (Devolution and Planning)
Henry Rotich (National Treasury)
James Wainaina Macharia (Health)
Fred Matiangi (Information, Communication and Technology)
Phyllis Kipkingor–Kandie (EAC Affairs, Commerce and Tourism)
Others (5%)
None
“Do you think the President's recent directive on corruption will
actually reduce it?”: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political
Parties/Coalitions
26
50%
38%
63%
29%
41%
20%21% 22%
17%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=623) Jubilee Supporters (n=867)
YES NO Not Sure
“Do you think the President's recent directive on corruption will
help reduce it?”: by Total, Those Who Approve/Disapprove of the
President’s Performance Over the Last 3 Months
27
50%
58%
27%
29%
24%
46%
21%
17%
27%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=1,964) Approve (n=1,453) Disapprove (n=451)
YES NO Not Sure
28
Somalia Issues
“In which neighbouring country is the Kenyan military currently
deployed as part of an international/African Union force?”:
by Total, Region
29Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
73%
79% 78% 77%
72% 72% 71%
66%
57%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total
(n=1,964)
Nairobi
(n=206)
Nyanza
(n=257)
Rift Valley
(n=484)
North
Eastern
(n=94)
Eastern
(n=293)
Coast
(n=173)
Central
(n=257)
Western
(n=200)
% Saying “Somalia”
“Do you think the presence of the KDF in Somalia will make the
following more likely,…?”: by Those Aware of KDF Presence in
Somalia
30
36%
49%
26%
34%
47%
38%
49%
39%
13% 11%
20%
17%
4% 2%
5%
10%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
A unified and stable
country under the new
Government of Somalia
An increase in terrorist
attacks in Kenya
Refugees able to return to
their homes in Somalia
The military defeat of al-
Shabaab
More Likely Less Likely No Difference Not Sure
Base: Those Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia (n=1,492)
Those Believing Each of the Following Will be “More Likely”:
by Those Aware of the KDF Presence in Somalia
31
36%
49%
26%
34%
39%
48%
28%
37%
31%
58%
23%
29%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
A unified and stable
country under the new
Government of
Somalia
An increase in terrorist
attacks in Kenya
Refugees able to
return to their homes
in Somalia
The military defeat of-
Shabaab
Total (n=1,492) Before 2nd April (n=989) After 2nd April (n=357)
10% Increase
Perceived Impact of KDF Action in Somalia on 4 Issue-Outcomes:
by Total of Those (80%) Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia
32Base: Those Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia
% saying “MORE LIKELY”
54%
68%
47%
40% 38%
46%
49%
36%
26%
56%
41%
56%
45% 45%
55%
49%
39%
49%
38%
45%
31%
33%
57%
26%
48%
56%
45% 49%
38% 43%
50%
34%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Oct. 2011
(n=1,618)
Nov. 2013
(n=1,762)
March 2014
(n=1,482)
May 2014
(n=1,693)
Sept. 2014
(n=1,601)
Nov.
2014(n=1,611)
Dec.2014
(n=1,806)
April 2015
(n=1,492)
A unified and stable country under the new Govt of Somalia
An increase in terrorist attacks in Kenya
Refugees able to return to their homes in Somalia
The military defeat of al-Shabaab
Preferences on Future Policy Regarding the KDF in Somalia:
by Those Aware of the KDF Presence in Somalia
33
27%
14% 13%
45%
1%
26%
14% 14%
44%
1%
27%
11%
14%
48%
1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
They should just
remain in Somalia
They should be
brought back to
Kenya only if they are
replaced by troops
from other African
countries
They should be
brought back to
Kenya whether they
are replaced or not
They should be
brought back to
Kenya and deployed
at various border
points
Not Sure
Total (n=1,492) Before 2nd April (n=989) After 2nd April (n=357)
4% Increase
“Altogether, do you approve or disapprove of the continued
presence of the KDF in Somalia?”:
by Those Aware of the KDF Presence in Somalia
34
51%
53%
48%48%
46%
51%
1% 1% 1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=1,492) Before 2nd April (n=989) After 2nd April (n=357)
Approve Disapprove No Opinion
5% Decrease
“How much of a threat do you think al-Shabaab is to Kenya as of
now?: by Total, Before/After 2nd April
35
70%
18%
8%
2% 2%
66%
20%
10%
2% 3%
80%
14%
4%
1% 0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Very Much a
Threat
Somewhat of a
Threat
Not Much of a
Threat
Not at All a Threat Not Sure
Total (n=1,964) Before 2nd April (n=1,394 After 2nd April (n=452)
14% Increase
“Do you agree or disagree with the teachers who have refused to
return to teach at their schools in North Eastern Kenya?”:
by Those Aware of the Refusal of Teachers Who Have Refused to Return to
Their Schools in North Eastern Kenya – Total, Region
36
88%
96%
93% 93%
89% 88% 87%
82%
59%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total
(n=1,543)
Nyanza
(n=227)
Western
(n=118)
Eastern
(n=-244)
Nairobi
(n=182)
Rift Valley
(n=380)
Coast
(n=115)
Central
(n=187)
North
Eastern
(n=90)
% Saying “Agree”
“Do you agree or disagree with the teachers who have refused to
return to teach at their schools in NE Kenya?”:
by Those Aware of the Teachers’ Refusal to Return to Duty in North
Eastern Kenya, Before/After 2nd April
37
89% 87%
93%
11% 13%
7%
1% 1% 1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=1,593) Before 2nd April (n=1,052) After 2nd April (n=389)
Agree Disagree Not sure
6% Increase
38
General State of the
Nation/
President’s
Performance
“In your opinion, are things in Kenya generally going in the right or
the wrong direction?”: by Total, Before/After 2nd April
39
29%
32%
20%
52%
49%
60%
12% 13% 11%
7% 6%
9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=1,964) Before 2nd April (n=1,364) After 2nd April (n-452)
Right Direction Wrong Direction
Neither Right Nor Wrong Direction Not Sure
11% Increase
“In your opinion, are things in Kenya generally going in the right or
the wrong direction?”: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political
Party/Coalitions
40
29%
52%
12%
7%
13%
74%
8%
5%
41%
35%
14%
9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Right Direction Wrong Direction Neither Right Nor
Wrong Direction
Not Sure
Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=622) Jubilee Supporters (n=867)
“On the whole, thinking about Kenya today, are things generally
going in the right or wrong direction?” – Trend Analysis
41
29% 30%
26%
29%
32%
29%
64% 62% 60% 58%
52% 52%
7% 7%
13% 14% 16%
19%
Nov. 2013 Feb. 2014 May 2014 Sept. 2014 Nov. 2014 Apr. 2015
Right Direction Wrong Direction Neither Right Nor Wrong/Not Sure
“Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the President’s
performance over the last three months?”
by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions
42
73%
53%
91%
24%
44%
7%
3% 3% 2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=622) Jubilee Supporters (n=867)
Approve Disapprove No Opinion
“Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the President’s
performance over the last three months?”
(By Total, Before/After 2nd April)
43
73%
76%
66%
24%
21%
32%
2% 2% 2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=1,964) Before 2nd April (n=1,364) After 2nd April (n-452)
Approve Disapprove No Opinion
10% Decline
“Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the President’s
performance over the last three months?” – Trend Analysis
44
78%
73%
22% 24%
0%
3%
Nov. 2014 Apr. 2015
Approve Disapprove No opinion
45
Digital Migration
Main Usual Source of News Over the Last Year: by Total
46
Radio, 58%
Newspapers, 2%
TV, 31%
Internet, 4%
Friends/Family/Colle
agues, 3%
None, 1%
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
YES,
38% NO,
62%
TV Ownership and Access
47
YES,
45%
NO,
55%
“Is there a television set in
your household?”
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
“Do you ever watch television
somewhere else?”
Base: Those saying that they do not have a TV
in the household (n=1,087)
61%
35%39%
65%
Urban (n=729) Rural (n=1,235)
YES NO
44%
35%
56%
65%
Urban (n=286) Rural (n=801)
YES NO
Set-Top Box Ownership
48
YES,
49%
NO,
51%
“Do you have a set-top box?”
Base: Those with a TV in the
Household (n=877)
One
96%
Two 3%Three
1%
“How many?”
Base: Those saying that they have a set-top
box in the household (n=427)
54%
43%46%
57%
Urban (n=443) Rural (n=434)
YES NO
Intention to Acquire a Set-Top Box
49
YES,
65%
NO,
35%
“Are you or is the head of
your household planning to
buy a set-top box?”
Base: Those without a set-top
box in the household (n=449)
When I
have the
money to
afford it
49%
Within
the next
month
26%
In a week
or two
4%
In the
next few
days
1%
Not sure
21%
“When are you
planning to buy it?”
Base: Those saying that they intend to acquire a set-
top box in the household (n=291)
65% 64%
35% 36%
Urban (n=203) Rural (n=246)
YES NO
Awareness of Digital Migration Switch-Off
50
One or
more of
Kenya’s
local
channel
s were
off air,
70%
Nothing,
30%
“What change in television
broadcasting did you
notice or hear about earlier
this year?”
Base: All Respondents
(n=1,964)
88%
80%
75%
53%
12%
CITIZEN
KTN
NTV
Q-TV
Incorrect answer
“Which TV channels
were off-air?”
Base: Those aware that any
TV stations were switched-
off (n=1,381)
YES
55%
NO
45%
“Are you able to
view them?”
Base: Those who
mentioned any of the
4 stations that were
switched-off (n=1,265)
78%
66%
22%
34%
Urban (n=729) Rural (n=1,235)
Switch-off Nothing
“Who do you think is responsible for these channels going off?”:
by Those Aware of the Analog Switch-Off
51
Base: Those aware of TV stations that were
switched-off (n=1,381)
Jubilee Govt, 40%
CA, 14%
Min.of
Information/C.S.
Matiangi, 10%
The Media Houses,
7%
The Supreme Court,
1%
Chinese
Companies, 1%
DK, 23%
Total Government: 64%
“Who do you think is responsible for these channels going off?”:
by Those Aware of the Analog Switch-Off
52
Base: Those aware of TV stations that were
switched-off (n=1,381)
40%
14%
10%
7%
1% 1%
23%
49%
15%
10%
4%
0% 1%
15%
34%
15%
10% 8%
2% 1%
28%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=1,381) CORD Supporters (n=484) Jubilee Supporters (n=624)
Total Government
“What do you think is the main reason this happened?”:
by Those Aware of the Analog Digital Switch-Off
53
Base: Those aware of TV stations that were
switched-off (n=1,381)
Financial Gain, 19%
Control of Media,
26%
Both Financial Gain
and Control of
Media, 13%
DK, 24%
Media Houses Failed
to Prepare for Digital
Migration, 17%
Political Motivation,
1%
“What do you think is the main reason this happened?”:
by Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions (Among
Those Aware of the Analog Digital Switch-Off
54
Base: Those aware of TV stations that were switched-off (n=1,381)
26%
19%
17%
13%
1%
24%
27%
19%
16%
17%
1%
19%
28%
18%
17%
10%
0%
26%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Control of media Financial Gain Media Houses
Failed to Prepare
for Digital
Migration
Both Financial
Gain and Control
of Media
Political
Motivation
DK
Total (n=1,381) CORD Supporters (n=484) Jubilee Supporters (n=624)
Perceptions of Media vs. Government Responsibility for the
Switch-Off: by Those Aware of the Analog Switch-Off
31%
71%
57%
21%
12%
8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Do you think the media houses that were
switched-off did enough to prepare for the
digital migration? (n=1,381)
Do you think they should have been given
more time? (n=1,381)
YES NO Not sure
55
For further information contact:
Dr Tom Wolf
Social Political Consultant
tpwolf1944@gmail.com
Victor Rateng
Project Manager - Opinion Polls
victor.rateng@ipsos.com
Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe
56

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Ipsos Kenya Survey on Corruption, Somalia Issues and Digital Migration

  • 1. © 2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. SPEC Barometer Press Release Prepared by : Ipsos Release date : 17th April 2015
  • 2.  Survey Methodology  Sample Demographics  Issues: 1. Corruption  Awareness and Type of Locality-Level Land-Grabbing  Awareness of Effort to Recover Grabbed Land/Expectations of Success  Awareness of Scandals Under the Jubilee Government  Awareness of Chicken-Gate/Outcome-Expectations of Investigations  Cabinet Secretaries the President Should Sack  Perception of Impact of President’s Directive on Corruption 2. Somalia Issues  Awareness of Presence of KDF in Somalia  Perceived Impact of KDF Presence on Four Related Outcomes 2 Contents
  • 3. Somalia Issues (Con’t)  Preference on Policy-Options Regarding KDF Presence in Somalia  General KDF Threat Level in Kenya  Teachers’ Refusal to Return to Work in NE Kenya 3. Kenya’s Direction / Presidential Performance Approval Level  Opinion on whether the country is headed in the right or wrong direction  Approval Level of President’s Performance During the Last 3 Months 4. Digital Migration  General Media Access  TV and STB Ownership/Intentions to Buy a STB  Awareness of February 14 Analog Switch-Off  Attribution of Blame and Perceived Motivation for Switch-off 3 Contents (con’t)
  • 4. Research Questions: Present and Future 1. How much of a contrast is there between Jubilee vs. CORD supporters, and for which issues is such a contrast relevant? 2. How much did (which) results change before and after the Garissa attack (i.e., how transient/fluid are certain results, based on short-term events)? 3. How much will TV viewing patterns be permanently affected by the Digital Migration in terms of: (a) total proportion watching TV; (b) shift in audiences across stations/programmes? 4. How do Kenyans judge presidential performance? 4 Contents (con’t)
  • 6. Methodology 6 Dates of polling 28th March - 7th April 2015 Sample Size 1,964 Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Universe Data collection methodology Sampling error Face-to-Face interviews at the household level Poll funding Ipsos Limited Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above living in Urban and Rural areas +/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level (Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)
  • 7. Statistical Significance: Respondent Numbers and Error-Margins for: Entire Sample, Before 2nd April , 2nd April and After 2nd April 1,964 1,364 193 4522.20% 2.60% 6.40% 4.60% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Total Before 2nd April 2nd April After 2nd April Sample Size Error-Margin 7
  • 8. Sample Structure Statistics 8 Region Sample Frame statistics (April 2015) *Weighted data % Population Census as at 2009 Adults (18 years +) % Central 257 13 2,548,038 13 Coast 173 9 1,711,549 9 Eastern 293 15 2,907,293 15 Nairobi 206 10 2,042,770 10 North Eastern 94* 5 929,158 5 Nyanza 257 13 2,547,980 13 Rift Valley 484 25 4,795,482 25 Western 200 10 1,980,090 10 TOTAL 1,964 100 19,462,360 100
  • 9. Quality Control Measures  For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout  Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their households to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).  After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: an independent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of the respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).  Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes and longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.  Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure conformity to the sample’s statistical parameters. 9 Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highest possible integrity of obtained results/data
  • 11. 28% 2% 30% 8% 11% 9% 10% 1% 1% 9% 22% 28% 23% 4% 4% 2% 5% 1% 2% Catholic Catholic Charismatic Mainstream Protestant (ACK,… SDA Evangelical Other Christian Muslim Refused To Answer/None No religion Public Sector wages/salary Private sector wages /salary Gains from self employment/… Agriculture (own/household farm) Livestock Given money by others Pension from previous employment Other Don’t Know Refused To Answer Demographic Profile 10% 9% 13% 25% 5% 15% 13% 10% 51% 49% 28% 29% 18% 25% 37% 63% 100% Nairobi Coast Nyanza Rift Valley North Eastern Eastern Central Western Female Male 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45+ Urban Rural Kenyans 11 Region Gender Age Setting Religion Nationality Source of Household Income Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  • 12. Demographic Profile 4% 14% 19% 14% 26% 8% 7% 3% 3% 1% 42% 33% 11% 4% 1% 1% 0% 2% 7% No formal education Some primary education Primary education completed Some secondary education Secondary education completed Some middle level college (not… Completed mid-level college (Not… Some University education University education completed Post Graduate (Masters, MBA, PhD) Less than 10,000 10,001 – 25,000 25,001 – 40,000 40,001 – 55,000 55,001 – 75,000 75,001 – 100,000 100,001 and above Has No income RTA/DK 12 Level of Education Monthly Household Income (ALL members of the Household) Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  • 13. Demographic Profile 41% 18% 11% 10% 7% 5% 5% 2% 1% Self-Employed Unemployed Employed in the private sector Peasant/herder (own farm/pasture) Casual labour Employed in the public sector Student Retired Other 13 Employment Status Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  • 15. “Are you aware of any land in this locality that was public but is now owned by a private individual/company due to corruption?”: by Total, Region 15 15% 29% 24% 16% 11% 11% 10% 10% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Total (n=1,964) Coast (n=173) Nairobi (n=206) Rift Valley (n=484) Central (n=257) Nyanza (n=257) Eastern (n=293) North Eastern (n=94) Western (n=200) % Saying “Yes”
  • 16. Those Aware of Any Land in the Locality That Was Public But is Now Owned by a Private Individual/Company Due to Corruption: by Total, Region 16 15% 17% 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=623) Jubilee Supporters (n=867)
  • 17. Original Intended Use of the Grabbed Public Land: by Those Aware of Any Such Land 17 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 9% 10% 28% 35% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Unspecified Cemetery Sports grounds Coffee factory Playground Residential Land Slaughterhouse Nature/Wildlife/Forest Defense/Military/Police Infrastructure (Railway Line) Medical Facility Agricultural Communal School/Educational Facility 71% of Those Aware Believe Such Recovery Efforts Will Succeed 34% - Aware of Efforts to Recover the Land
  • 18. Awareness of Any Corruption Scandals Under the Jubilee Government: by Total, Region 18 57% 74% 73% 60% 52% 50% 47% 45% 37% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total (n=1,964) Nairobi (n=206) Nyanza (n=257) Rift Valley (n=484) Central (n=257) Coast (n=173) Western (n=200) Eastern (n=293) North Eastern (n=94)
  • 19. Awareness of Particular Corruption Scandals Under the Jubilee Government (Multiple Response): by Those Aware of Any Such Scandals (29 Mentions) 19 Base: n=1,114 6% 3% 4% 4% 5% 7% 7% 13% 17% 19% 23% 25% 31% 33% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Other Lang'ata Primnary School Land Grab Malili Ranch Fake Pastors KCSE Exam Leakage Ruto Jet Hire Government Officials (Unspecified) Standard Gauge Railway Laptop Project Coast Land Issues Police Recruitment Scandal Anglo-Leasing Karen Land Chicken-Gate (IIEC/IEBC/Examinations council)
  • 20. 20 11% 17% 8% 23% 25% 25% 67% 58% 67% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=623) Jubilee Supporters (n=867) Can Name More Than One Can Name One Can’t Name Any Able to Name Any of the Individuals Named in Chicken-Gate: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions
  • 21. “Do you think those mentioned actually received a bribe?”: by Those Able to Mention at Least One Chicken-Gate Suspect - Total, Region 21 71% 84% 79% 76% 72% 70% 69% 68% 45% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % Saying “Yes”
  • 22. 22 30% 26% 38% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total (n=467) CORD Supporters (n=214) Jubilee Supporters (n=180) Those Confident That Those Named Will Be Convicted: by Those Who Can Name Any of Those Mention in Chicken-Gate – by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions Those Who Believe Those Named Actually Received the Alleged Bribes: by Those Who Can Name Any of Those Mentioned in Chicken-Gate - by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions 71% 82% 63% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total (n=659) CORD Supporters (n=261) Jubilee Supporters (n=284)
  • 23. “Which cabinet secretaries, if any, do you think the President should sack completely?” (Multiple Response): by Total 23Base: All Respondents (n=1,964) 31% 26% 18% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 9% 12% 19% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% None Don't Know Them Others (8) Davis Chirchir (Energy) Rachelle Omamo (Defence) Joseph Ole Nkaissery(Interior and Coordination of National Gov't) Michael Kamau (Transport and Infrastructure) Felix Koskei (Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries) Samuel Kazungu Kambi (Labour, Social Security, and Services) Jacob Kaimenyi (Education) Charity Ngilu (Land, Housing, and Urban Development)
  • 24. “Which cabinet secretaries, if any, do you think the President should sack completely?” (Multiple Response): by Supporters of the Main Political Party/Coalitions 24 23% 22% 28% 5% 4% 7% 9% 7% 12% 17% 28% 35% 26% 15% 5% 3% 5% 3% 8% 8% 11% 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% None Don't Know Them Others Davis Chirchir (Energy) Raychelle Omamo (Defence) Michael Kamau (Transport and Infrastructure) Joseph ole Nkaissery(Interior and Coordination of National Gov't) Felix Koskei (Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries) Samuel Kazungu Kambi (Labour, Social Security, and Services) Jacob Kaimenyi (Education) Charity Ngilu (Land, Housing, and Urban Development) Jubilee Supporters (867) CORD Supporters (623)
  • 25. “Which cabinet secretaries, if any, do you think the President should sack completely?” (Multiple Response): by Total (excluding those who stated that they “don’t know them”) 25Base: (n=1,452) 26% 16% 12% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 9% 42% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Charity Ngilu (Land, Housing and Urban Development) Jacob Kaimenyi (Education) Samuel Kazungu Kambi (Labour, Social Security and Services) Felix Koskei (Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries) Michael Kamau (Transport and Infrastructure) Joseph Ole Nkaissery(Interior and Coordination of National G Davis Chirchir (Energy and Petroleum) Rayechelle Omamo (Defence) Anne Waiguru (Devolution and Planning) Henry Rotich (National Treasury) James Wainaina Macharia (Health) Fred Matiangi (Information, Communication and Technology) Phyllis Kipkingor–Kandie (EAC Affairs, Commerce and Tourism) Others (5%) None
  • 26. “Do you think the President's recent directive on corruption will actually reduce it?”: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions 26 50% 38% 63% 29% 41% 20%21% 22% 17% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=623) Jubilee Supporters (n=867) YES NO Not Sure
  • 27. “Do you think the President's recent directive on corruption will help reduce it?”: by Total, Those Who Approve/Disapprove of the President’s Performance Over the Last 3 Months 27 50% 58% 27% 29% 24% 46% 21% 17% 27% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total (n=1,964) Approve (n=1,453) Disapprove (n=451) YES NO Not Sure
  • 29. “In which neighbouring country is the Kenyan military currently deployed as part of an international/African Union force?”: by Total, Region 29Base: All Respondents (n=1,964) 73% 79% 78% 77% 72% 72% 71% 66% 57% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total (n=1,964) Nairobi (n=206) Nyanza (n=257) Rift Valley (n=484) North Eastern (n=94) Eastern (n=293) Coast (n=173) Central (n=257) Western (n=200) % Saying “Somalia”
  • 30. “Do you think the presence of the KDF in Somalia will make the following more likely,…?”: by Those Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia 30 36% 49% 26% 34% 47% 38% 49% 39% 13% 11% 20% 17% 4% 2% 5% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% A unified and stable country under the new Government of Somalia An increase in terrorist attacks in Kenya Refugees able to return to their homes in Somalia The military defeat of al- Shabaab More Likely Less Likely No Difference Not Sure Base: Those Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia (n=1,492)
  • 31. Those Believing Each of the Following Will be “More Likely”: by Those Aware of the KDF Presence in Somalia 31 36% 49% 26% 34% 39% 48% 28% 37% 31% 58% 23% 29% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% A unified and stable country under the new Government of Somalia An increase in terrorist attacks in Kenya Refugees able to return to their homes in Somalia The military defeat of- Shabaab Total (n=1,492) Before 2nd April (n=989) After 2nd April (n=357) 10% Increase
  • 32. Perceived Impact of KDF Action in Somalia on 4 Issue-Outcomes: by Total of Those (80%) Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia 32Base: Those Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia % saying “MORE LIKELY” 54% 68% 47% 40% 38% 46% 49% 36% 26% 56% 41% 56% 45% 45% 55% 49% 39% 49% 38% 45% 31% 33% 57% 26% 48% 56% 45% 49% 38% 43% 50% 34% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Oct. 2011 (n=1,618) Nov. 2013 (n=1,762) March 2014 (n=1,482) May 2014 (n=1,693) Sept. 2014 (n=1,601) Nov. 2014(n=1,611) Dec.2014 (n=1,806) April 2015 (n=1,492) A unified and stable country under the new Govt of Somalia An increase in terrorist attacks in Kenya Refugees able to return to their homes in Somalia The military defeat of al-Shabaab
  • 33. Preferences on Future Policy Regarding the KDF in Somalia: by Those Aware of the KDF Presence in Somalia 33 27% 14% 13% 45% 1% 26% 14% 14% 44% 1% 27% 11% 14% 48% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% They should just remain in Somalia They should be brought back to Kenya only if they are replaced by troops from other African countries They should be brought back to Kenya whether they are replaced or not They should be brought back to Kenya and deployed at various border points Not Sure Total (n=1,492) Before 2nd April (n=989) After 2nd April (n=357) 4% Increase
  • 34. “Altogether, do you approve or disapprove of the continued presence of the KDF in Somalia?”: by Those Aware of the KDF Presence in Somalia 34 51% 53% 48%48% 46% 51% 1% 1% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total (n=1,492) Before 2nd April (n=989) After 2nd April (n=357) Approve Disapprove No Opinion 5% Decrease
  • 35. “How much of a threat do you think al-Shabaab is to Kenya as of now?: by Total, Before/After 2nd April 35 70% 18% 8% 2% 2% 66% 20% 10% 2% 3% 80% 14% 4% 1% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Very Much a Threat Somewhat of a Threat Not Much of a Threat Not at All a Threat Not Sure Total (n=1,964) Before 2nd April (n=1,394 After 2nd April (n=452) 14% Increase
  • 36. “Do you agree or disagree with the teachers who have refused to return to teach at their schools in North Eastern Kenya?”: by Those Aware of the Refusal of Teachers Who Have Refused to Return to Their Schools in North Eastern Kenya – Total, Region 36 88% 96% 93% 93% 89% 88% 87% 82% 59% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total (n=1,543) Nyanza (n=227) Western (n=118) Eastern (n=-244) Nairobi (n=182) Rift Valley (n=380) Coast (n=115) Central (n=187) North Eastern (n=90) % Saying “Agree”
  • 37. “Do you agree or disagree with the teachers who have refused to return to teach at their schools in NE Kenya?”: by Those Aware of the Teachers’ Refusal to Return to Duty in North Eastern Kenya, Before/After 2nd April 37 89% 87% 93% 11% 13% 7% 1% 1% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total (n=1,593) Before 2nd April (n=1,052) After 2nd April (n=389) Agree Disagree Not sure 6% Increase
  • 38. 38 General State of the Nation/ President’s Performance
  • 39. “In your opinion, are things in Kenya generally going in the right or the wrong direction?”: by Total, Before/After 2nd April 39 29% 32% 20% 52% 49% 60% 12% 13% 11% 7% 6% 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total (n=1,964) Before 2nd April (n=1,364) After 2nd April (n-452) Right Direction Wrong Direction Neither Right Nor Wrong Direction Not Sure 11% Increase
  • 40. “In your opinion, are things in Kenya generally going in the right or the wrong direction?”: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Party/Coalitions 40 29% 52% 12% 7% 13% 74% 8% 5% 41% 35% 14% 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Right Direction Wrong Direction Neither Right Nor Wrong Direction Not Sure Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=622) Jubilee Supporters (n=867)
  • 41. “On the whole, thinking about Kenya today, are things generally going in the right or wrong direction?” – Trend Analysis 41 29% 30% 26% 29% 32% 29% 64% 62% 60% 58% 52% 52% 7% 7% 13% 14% 16% 19% Nov. 2013 Feb. 2014 May 2014 Sept. 2014 Nov. 2014 Apr. 2015 Right Direction Wrong Direction Neither Right Nor Wrong/Not Sure
  • 42. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the President’s performance over the last three months?” by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions 42 73% 53% 91% 24% 44% 7% 3% 3% 2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=622) Jubilee Supporters (n=867) Approve Disapprove No Opinion
  • 43. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the President’s performance over the last three months?” (By Total, Before/After 2nd April) 43 73% 76% 66% 24% 21% 32% 2% 2% 2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total (n=1,964) Before 2nd April (n=1,364) After 2nd April (n-452) Approve Disapprove No Opinion 10% Decline
  • 44. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the President’s performance over the last three months?” – Trend Analysis 44 78% 73% 22% 24% 0% 3% Nov. 2014 Apr. 2015 Approve Disapprove No opinion
  • 46. Main Usual Source of News Over the Last Year: by Total 46 Radio, 58% Newspapers, 2% TV, 31% Internet, 4% Friends/Family/Colle agues, 3% None, 1% Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  • 47. YES, 38% NO, 62% TV Ownership and Access 47 YES, 45% NO, 55% “Is there a television set in your household?” Base: All Respondents (n=1,964) “Do you ever watch television somewhere else?” Base: Those saying that they do not have a TV in the household (n=1,087) 61% 35%39% 65% Urban (n=729) Rural (n=1,235) YES NO 44% 35% 56% 65% Urban (n=286) Rural (n=801) YES NO
  • 48. Set-Top Box Ownership 48 YES, 49% NO, 51% “Do you have a set-top box?” Base: Those with a TV in the Household (n=877) One 96% Two 3%Three 1% “How many?” Base: Those saying that they have a set-top box in the household (n=427) 54% 43%46% 57% Urban (n=443) Rural (n=434) YES NO
  • 49. Intention to Acquire a Set-Top Box 49 YES, 65% NO, 35% “Are you or is the head of your household planning to buy a set-top box?” Base: Those without a set-top box in the household (n=449) When I have the money to afford it 49% Within the next month 26% In a week or two 4% In the next few days 1% Not sure 21% “When are you planning to buy it?” Base: Those saying that they intend to acquire a set- top box in the household (n=291) 65% 64% 35% 36% Urban (n=203) Rural (n=246) YES NO
  • 50. Awareness of Digital Migration Switch-Off 50 One or more of Kenya’s local channel s were off air, 70% Nothing, 30% “What change in television broadcasting did you notice or hear about earlier this year?” Base: All Respondents (n=1,964) 88% 80% 75% 53% 12% CITIZEN KTN NTV Q-TV Incorrect answer “Which TV channels were off-air?” Base: Those aware that any TV stations were switched- off (n=1,381) YES 55% NO 45% “Are you able to view them?” Base: Those who mentioned any of the 4 stations that were switched-off (n=1,265) 78% 66% 22% 34% Urban (n=729) Rural (n=1,235) Switch-off Nothing
  • 51. “Who do you think is responsible for these channels going off?”: by Those Aware of the Analog Switch-Off 51 Base: Those aware of TV stations that were switched-off (n=1,381) Jubilee Govt, 40% CA, 14% Min.of Information/C.S. Matiangi, 10% The Media Houses, 7% The Supreme Court, 1% Chinese Companies, 1% DK, 23% Total Government: 64%
  • 52. “Who do you think is responsible for these channels going off?”: by Those Aware of the Analog Switch-Off 52 Base: Those aware of TV stations that were switched-off (n=1,381) 40% 14% 10% 7% 1% 1% 23% 49% 15% 10% 4% 0% 1% 15% 34% 15% 10% 8% 2% 1% 28% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total (n=1,381) CORD Supporters (n=484) Jubilee Supporters (n=624) Total Government
  • 53. “What do you think is the main reason this happened?”: by Those Aware of the Analog Digital Switch-Off 53 Base: Those aware of TV stations that were switched-off (n=1,381) Financial Gain, 19% Control of Media, 26% Both Financial Gain and Control of Media, 13% DK, 24% Media Houses Failed to Prepare for Digital Migration, 17% Political Motivation, 1%
  • 54. “What do you think is the main reason this happened?”: by Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions (Among Those Aware of the Analog Digital Switch-Off 54 Base: Those aware of TV stations that were switched-off (n=1,381) 26% 19% 17% 13% 1% 24% 27% 19% 16% 17% 1% 19% 28% 18% 17% 10% 0% 26% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Control of media Financial Gain Media Houses Failed to Prepare for Digital Migration Both Financial Gain and Control of Media Political Motivation DK Total (n=1,381) CORD Supporters (n=484) Jubilee Supporters (n=624)
  • 55. Perceptions of Media vs. Government Responsibility for the Switch-Off: by Those Aware of the Analog Switch-Off 31% 71% 57% 21% 12% 8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Do you think the media houses that were switched-off did enough to prepare for the digital migration? (n=1,381) Do you think they should have been given more time? (n=1,381) YES NO Not sure 55
  • 56. For further information contact: Dr Tom Wolf Social Political Consultant tpwolf1944@gmail.com Victor Rateng Project Manager - Opinion Polls victor.rateng@ipsos.com Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe 56