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Tanzania election poll report swahili version
This document presents the findings of a survey conducted by Ipsos in September 2015 regarding Tanzanians' opinions on social, economic, and political issues. The survey, which included 1,836 participants, explores key challenges facing the country, perceptions of poverty, and political trust towards major political parties and candidates. Additionally, it reveals demographic data about respondents and their preferences in the upcoming presidential election.
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Tanzania election poll report swahili version
- 1. 1 © 2015Ipsos.1 Utafiti wa Robo ya Tatu ya mwaka wa 2015 IMEANDALIWA NA : IPSOS IMEANDALIWA KWA AJILI YA KUWASILISHWA KWA VYOMBO VYA HABARI. TAREHE: 24 SEPTEMBA 2015 Utafiti Kuhusu Maoni ya Watanzania kwa maswala ya Kijamii, Uchumi, Siasa na Tamaduni © 2015 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
- 2. 2 © 2015Ipsos. YALIYOMO 2 a) Njia ya Utafiti Uliotumiwa Kukusanya Data b) Umri, asili , tabaka na jinsia ya wahliohojiwa c) Matatizo makuu yanayowakabili Watanzania d) Hatua za kutokomeza umaskini e) Imani ya wahojiwa katika vyama vya kisiasa kuhusu maswala ya sera f) Kufungumana/Kupendelea vyama vya kisiasa g) Mgombea wa nafasi ya urais –Mapendeleo kutegemea, Umri, Asili, Tabaka, Jinsia na elimu h) Uwezekano wa kubadili mtazamo wa nani wa kumchagua kabla ya October 25
- 3. 3 © 2015Ipsos. Aina/ Fani ya Utafiti iliyotumiwa kukusanya data Tarehe ya kukusanya data 05 - 22 Septemba 2015 Jumla ya watu waliohojiwa 1,836 (Tanzania Bara tu) Aina ya methodolojia iliyotumika Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size)-Sampuli iliyateuliwa kwa mfumo wa sadfa ikizingatia idadi na kuenea kwa watu kama ilivyoripotiwa katika sensa ya 2012 Aina ya watu waliohojiwa Watanzania, wenye umri wa miaka 18 na kuendelea waishio maeneo ya mjini na vijijini ( Ikijumuisha mikoa 25 ya Tanzania bara ) Mfumo wa mahojiano Mahojiano ya moja kwa moja nyumbani kwa Wahojiwa Margin of error +/-2.3% with a 95% confidence level (Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples) Imani na Uhakika wa tafiti 95% na uwiano au kukosa uwiano +/_2.3% Lugha ya mahojiano Kingereza , Kiswahili,
- 4. 4 © 2015Ipsos. Uhakiki wa ubora wa Taarifa • Ipsos inatumia njia mbalimbali kuhakikisha taarifa zinazokusanywa na wahojiwa zina ubora unaotakiwa. • Msimamizi wa utafiti anakuwepo eneo la mahojiano kuangalia ukusanyaji wa data kwa kiwango kisichopungua 20% Kwa kipindi chote cha ukusanyaji wa data • Meneja utafiti nyanjani hutemebelea angalau 15% ya idadi yote ya wahojiwa kuhakiki ya kwamba walihojiwa • Baada ya mahojiano , taarifa hutumwa moja kwa moja kwa njia ya kidijitali kwenda kwenye mitambo ya Ipsos ambapo kitengo maalumu kinachohusika na uhakiki wa mahojiano yaliyofanyika kinahakikisha kuwa mahojiano yalifanyika kwa kuwapigia simu wahojiwa wasiopungua 40% ya wale waliokubali kuhojiwa • Mfumo huo wa ukusanyaji taarifa kwa kutumia simu huwezesha kuchukua vipimo vya mahali ambapo mahojiano yalifanyika (GPS - location)
- 5.
- 6. 6 © 2015Ipsos. Mkoa Sample Frame statistics *Weighted data % Population census 2012 Adults (18 yrs +) % Arusha 74 4% 874,975 4% Dar es Salaam 229 12% 2,715,888 12% Dodoma 86 5% 1,014,173 5% Geita 63 3% 748,609 3% Iringa 41 2% 485,597 2% Kagera 95 5% 1,130,783 5% Katavi 21 1% 251,099 1% Kigoma 81 4% 955,816 4% Kilimanjaro 76 4% 903,539 4% Lindi 40 2% 479,914 2% Manyara 56 3% 667,616 3% Mara 65 4% 773,588 4% Mbeya 115 6% 1,368,074 6% Morogoro 99 5% 1,171,172 5% Mtwara 60 3% 716,083 3% Mwanza 110 6% 1,299,896 6% Njombe 31 2% 362,735 2% Pwani 50 3% 597,136 3% Rukwa 37 2% 437,820 2% Ruvuma 59 3% 703,739 3% Shinyanga 60 3% 705,925 3% Simiyu 56 3% 669,069 3% Singida 55 3% 647,206 3% Tabora 88 5% 1,040,968 5% Tanga 88 5% 1,037,415 5% Idadi ya wahojiwa kwa kila mkoa
- 7. 7 © 2015Ipsos. Sampuli ya utafiti 33% 67% Mjini / Kijini Kijijini Mjini 47% 53% Jinsia Kike Kiume 25.70% 28.10% 19.30% 26.80% Umri 45+ 35 - 44 25 - 34 18 - 24 Kielelezo: Wahojiwa wote n=1836
- 8. 8 © 2015Ipsos. Kiwango cha juu cha elimu na ajira 7% 9% 53% 9% 17% 2% 1% 2% 1% Wasiokwenda shule kabisa Elimu ya msingi Waliomaliza elimu ya msingi Elimu ya sekondari Waliomaliza elimu ya sekondari Elimu ya ufundi baada ya sekondari Chuo kikuu Waliohitimu chuo kikuu Digrii ya pili (Masters) 8% 5% 4% 2% 5% 27% 4% 2% 1% 41% 3% Mama wa nyumbani Walioajiriwa sekta rasmi Walioajiriwa sekta isiyo rasmi Wastaafu Wanafunzi Waliojiajiri /wenye biashara binafsi Wasioajiriwa /wanatafuta kazi Wasioajiriwa /hawatafuti kazi Vibarua Wakulima Wengineo Kielelezo: Wahojiwa wote n=1836
- 9. 9 © 2015Ipsos. “Kwa ujumla, ni yapi unaweza sema ndiyo matatizo makuu yanayoikabili Tanzania kwa sasa?”Majibu mengi 40% 36% 35% 34% 29% 29% 22% 17% 3% 3% 3% Bei ya chakula, Gharama za maisha, nishati, umaskini Afya Chakula/Njaa/Kilimo Maji Elimu Umeme, Barabara, Makazi Ukosefu wa ajira Rushwa Taasisi za siasa Mabadiliko ya tabia ya nchi/Mazingira Haki za binadamu Kielelezo: Wahojiwa wote n=1836
- 10. 10 © 2015Ipsos. Mitazamo juu ya umaskini; “Je kuna umaskini wowote kwenye eneo hili?” 93% 89% 95% 5% 7% 4%0% 1% 0%1% 3% 1% JUMLA MJINI KIJIJINI NDIYO HAPANA HAKUNA JIBU SIJUI Kielelezo: Wahojiwa wote n=1836
- 11. 11 © 2015Ipsos. Mitazamo Kuhusu Umaskini; “Je ni mambo yapii makuu yanaweza kufanyika ili kupunguza umaskini katika eneo unaloishi?”Majibu mengi 64% 41% 38% 35% 33% 13% 5% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% Miundombinu(Barabara,Maji, Umeme) Afya Elimu Kilimo/Ufugaji Nafasi za ajira Uongozi (Uzuiaji wa rushwa , Sera,Uongozi bora) Upatikanaji wa mikopo Ulinzi Uzazi wa mpango Uanzishwaji wa miradi kuboresha maisha ya wananchi Upatikanaji wa masoko na maeneo ya biashara Upangaji mzuri wa bei za mazao kwa wakulima Kuboresha mitandao ya mawasiliano Kielelezo: Wahojiwa wote n=1836
- 12. IMANI KATIKA UTEKELEZAJI WAVYAMA VYA SIASA
- 13. 13 © 2015Ipsos. “Ni kwa kiasi kipi unakiamini Chadema/CCM katika kushughulikia maswala yafuatayo 42% 38% 39% 36% 38% 26% 44% 28% 27% 27% 25% 25% 27% 26% Kusimamia uchumi Kusimamia afya Kusimamia elimu Kusimamia usambazaji wa maji Kusimamia nishati ya umeme Kusimamia/Kupunguza rushwa Kusimamia bara bara na miundo mbinu % Waliosema wanaamini kabisa / Wanaamini sana Chadema CCM Kielelezo: Wahojiwa wote n=1836
- 14. 14 © 2015Ipsos. Kiwango cha wale ambao wamefanya maamuzi juu ya chama cha siasa na nafasi ya uraisi Hawajafany a maamuzi 22% Waliosema wanashabiki a au hawashabiki i chama chochote cha siasa, 78% Ambao wanashabikia/hawashabikii chama chochote cha siasa Wasio na msimamo wa kupiga au kutopiga kura / Hakuna jibu, 27% Wenye msaimano wa kupiga au kutopiga kura , 73% Ambao wameamua/hawajaamua nani wa kumpigia kura Kielelezo: Wahojiwa wote. Jumla =1836
- 15. 15 © 2015Ipsos. “Ni chama kipi cha siasa ambacho unadhani upo karibu nacho zaidi, kama kipo?” 60% 29% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 4% Kielelezo “ Walosema wanaunga au hawaungi chama chochote ” Jumla= 1442
- 16. 16 © 2015Ipsos. “Ni chama kipi cha kisiasa ambacho unadhani upo karibu nacho zaidi, kama kipo?” Wanaoshabikia vyama viwili vikuu . Mjini / Kijijini / Jinsia 60% 51% 69% 54% 63% 29% 37% 21% 30% 28% Jumla Wanaume Wanawake Mjini Kijijini CCM CHADEMA Kielelezo: Kwa wanaoshabikia CCM au Chadema – jumla =1283”
- 17. 17 © 2015Ipsos. “Ni chama kipi cha siasa ambacho unadhani upo karibu nacho zaidi, kama kipo?” Wanaoshabikia vyama vikuu viwili - Umri 60% 52% 56% 61% 73% 29% 35% 35% 29% 16% Jumla 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45+ CCM CHADEMA Kieleiezo : Wale wanaoshabikia CCM au Chadema. Jumla =1,283
- 18.
- 19. 19 © 2015Ipsos. “Kama uchaguzi ungefanyika leo, ni mgombea yupi ungemchagua kwa nafasi ya urais?” 61.6% 30.8% 0.3% 7.3% DR. John Pombe Magufuli Edward Lowassa Anna Mugwira Sitomchagua yeyote Kielelezo: Wale ambao wameshaamua juu ya nani watamchagua Jumla =1338)
- 20. 20 © 2015Ipsos. “Kama uchaguzi ungefanyika leo, ni mgombea yupi ungemchagua kwa nafasi ya uraisi?” (Jinsia – Mjini/Vijijini) 61.6% 56.0% 66.6% 59.7% 62.5% 30.8% 38.9% 23.7% 31.9% 30.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 7.3% 4.8% 9.5% 7.7% 7.1% Jumla Wanaume Wanawake Mjini Kijijini DR. John Pombe Magufuli Edward Lowassa Anna Mugwira Sitompigia kura mtu yeyote Kielelezo: Wale ambao wameshaamua juu ya nani watamchagua Jumla =1338)
- 21. 21 © 2015Ipsos. “Kama uchaguzi ungefanyika leo, ni mgombea yupi ungemchagua kwa nafasi ya uraisi?” Umri 61.6% 54.9% 57.4% 61.9% 73.5% 30.8% 38.7% 34.5% 32.0% 17.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 7.3% 6.2% 7.8% 5.8% 9.0% Jumla 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45+ Dr. John Pombe Magufuli Edward Lowassa Anna Mugwira Sitompigia kura mtu yeyote Kielelezo: Wale ambao wameshaamua juu ya nani watamchagua jumla =1338)
- 22. 22 © 2015Ipsos. “Kuna uwezekano gani wa kuwa utabadilisha mawazo juu ya nani wa kumchagua kati ya leo na siku ya uchaguzi?” Unaweza sema ...?” 70% 6% 4% 7% 11% 2% 1% Hakuna uwezekano Hakuna uwezekano kwa kiasi Fulani Wastani Kuna uwezekano kwa kiasi Fulani Uwezekano mkubwa Sijui Sina jibu Kielelezo: Wale ambao wamefanya maamuzi juu ya nani wa kumpigia kura Jumla =1338)
- 23. 23 © 2015Ipsos. Contacts Charles Makau Ipsos Tanzania Charles.Makau@ipsos.com AGGREY ORIWO Ipsos East Africa Cluster aggrey.oriwo@ipsos.com twitter.com/ipsostanzania facebook.com/ipsostanzania www.ipsos.com DR TOM WOLF Research Analyst tpwolf1944@gmail.com
- 24. 24 © 2015Ipsos. ABOUT IPSOS Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry. With a strong presence in 87 countries, Ipsos employs more than 16,000 people and has the ability to conduct research programs in more than 100 countries. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is controlled and managed by research professionals. They have built a solid Group around a multi-specialist positioning – Media and advertising research; Marketing research; Client and employee relationship management; Opinion & social research; Mobile, Online, Offline data collection and delivery. Ipsos is listed on Eurolist - NYSE-Euronext. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD). www.ipsos.com GAME CHANGERS At Ipsos we are passionately curious about people, markets, brands and society. We deliver information and analysis that makes our complex world easier and faster to navigate and inspires our clients to make smarter decisions. We believe that our work is important. Security, simplicity, speed and substance applies to everything we do. Through specialisation, we offer our clients a unique depth of knowledge and expertise. Learning from different experiences gives us perspective and inspires us to boldly call things into question, to be creative. By nurturing a culture of collaboration and curiosity, we attract the highest calibre of people who have the ability and desire to influence and shape the future. “GAME CHANGERS” - our tagline - summarises our ambition.