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may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
SPEC Barometer
Prepared by: Ipsos
Press Release
Release date: 22nd April 2015
2
Methodology
Methodology
3
Dates of polling 28th March - 7th April 2015
Sample Size 1,964
Sampling methodology
Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS
(proportionate to population size)
Universe
Data collection
methodology
Sampling error
Face-to-Face interviews at the household level
Poll funding Ipsos Limited
Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban
and Rural areas
+/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level
(Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)
Sample Structure Statistics
4
Region
Sample Frame statistics
(April 2015)
*Weighted data
%
Population Census as at 2009
Adults (18 years +)
%
Central 257 13 2,548,038 13
Coast 173 9 1,711,549 9
Eastern 293 15 2,907,293 15
Nairobi 206 10 2,042,770 10
North Eastern 94* 5 929,158 5
Nyanza 257 13 2,547,980 13
Rift Valley 484 25 4,795,482 25
Western 200 10 1,980,090 10
TOTAL 1,964 100 19,462,360 100
Quality Control Measures
 For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout
 Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their
households to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).
 After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: an
independent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of the
respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said
respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).
 Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes and
longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the
interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.
 Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure
conformity to the sample’s statistical parameters.
5
Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highest
possible integrity of obtained results/data
6
Respondents’
Demographic Profile
28%
2%
30%
8%
11%
9%
10%
1%
1%
9%
22%
28%
23%
4%
4%
2%
5%
1%
2%
Catholic
Catholic Charismatic
Mainstream Protestant (ACK,…
SDA
Evangelical
Other Christian
Muslim
Refused To Answer/None
No religion
Public Sector wages/salary
Private sector wages /salary
Gains from self employment/…
Agriculture (own/household farm)
Livestock
Given money by others
Pension from previous employment
Other
Don’t Know
Refused To Answer
Demographic Profile
10%
9%
13%
25%
5%
15%
13%
10%
51%
49%
28%
29%
18%
25%
37%
63%
100%
Nairobi
Coast
Nyanza
Rift Valley
North Eastern
Eastern
Central
Western
Female
Male
18 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45+
Urban
Rural
Kenyans
7
Region
Gender
Age
Setting
Religion
Nationality
Source of Household Income
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
Demographic Profile
4%
14%
19%
14%
26%
8%
7%
3%
3%
1%
42%
33%
11%
4%
1%
1%
0%
2%
7%
No formal education
Some primary education
Primary education completed
Some secondary education
Secondary education completed
Some middle level college (not…
Completed mid-level college (Not…
Some University education
University education completed
Post Graduate (Masters, MBA, PhD)
Less than 10,000
10,001 – 25,000
25,001 – 40,000
40,001 – 55,000
55,001 – 75,000
75,001 – 100,000
100,001 and above
Has No income
RTA/DK
8
Level of Education
Monthly Household Income (ALL
members of the Household)
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
Demographic Profile
41%
18%
11%
10%
7%
5%
5%
2%
1%
Self-Employed
Unemployed
Employed in the private sector
Peasant/herder (own farm/pasture)
Casual labour
Employed in the public sector
Student
Retired
Other
9
Employment Status
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
10
Constituency
Development Fund
(CDF)
Awareness of Any CDF Project in the Locality (Single Response):
(By Total, Setting)
11
40%
9%
8%
7%
1% 1%
4%
30%
29%
13%
6%
8%
1%
6%
37%
46%
7%
10%
7%
1%
3%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Total (n=1,964) Urban (n=729) Rural (n=1,235)
“Do you think CDF is still needed to promote development at the
local level?”
(By Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/ Coalitions)
12
85%
10%
5%
87%
8%
5%
86%
10%
4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
YES NO Not Sure
Total (n=1,954) CORD Supporters (n=623) Jubilee Supporters (n=867)
“Do you think CDF is still needed to promote development at the
local level?”
(By Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/ Coalitions)
13
93%
87%
5%
9%
2% 4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
CDF has been "a complete success" (n=700) CDF has been "only a partial success/failure"
(n=634)
YES NO Not Sure
Preferred Oversight Responsibility for CDF (of Those 85% Who
Want It To Continue At All)
(By Total, Supporters of Main Political Parties/Coalitions)
14
38%
41%
18%
2%
39%
46%
14%
1%
40%
38%
20%
1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
MPs/Parliament County Governments Central Government Not Sure
Total (n=1,678) CORD Supporters (n=541) Jubilee Supporters (n=748)
15
Public Participation
“Are you satisfied with the opportunities made available to the
public for public participation by the..?” (By Total)
16
42%
44%45%
41%
9%
11%
4% 4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Central government County government
Satisfied Not satisfied Not sure Not interested in participating
17
Support for Devolution
“Altogether, do you support devolution , that is, having county
governments in Kenya?”
(By Total and Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions)
18
78% 77%
80%
21% 23%
18%
2% 1% 1%
Total (n=1,964) Jubilee Supporters (n=867) CORD Supporters (n=623)
YES NO RTA
“Altogether, do you support devolution i.e. having county
governments in Kenya?” – Trend Analysis
19
69%
78%
28%
21%
3% 2%
September 2014 (n=2,021) April 2015 (n=1,964)
YES NO RTA
“How much confidence you have in each of the following, a lot of
confidence, some confidence, only a little confidence, or no
confidence at all in …? (By Total)
20%
22% 21%
19%
38%
44%
37%
34%
18% 19%
21% 21%22%
14%
20%
25%
2% 1% 1% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Your County Assembly
Representative (MCA)
County Governments Governors Senators
A lot of confidence Some confidence Only a little confidence
No confidence at all Don't Know
20Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
21
Desired Changes in the
Constitution
“What changes would you like to see in the current Constitution, if
any?” (Multiple Response) (By Total)
13%
11%
9%
9%
9%
5%
3%
1%
1%
1%
10%
20%
25%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
A reduction in the number of elected officials
Limits on salaries and benefits for senior government
officials/more powers to the SRC
Replacement of IEBC
Less power for the governors/counties
Health services to remain a central government responsibility
More power for the governors/counties
A move away from pure presidential system to parliamentary
system
Increase presidential powers
Strengthen chapter 6 on integrity of leaders
Bill of rights
Invalid answers (not relevant to the Constitution)
None
Not sure
22Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
For further information contact:
Dr Tom Wolf
Research Analyst
tpwolf1944@gmail.com
Victor Rateng
Project Manager - Opinion Polls
victor.rateng@ipsos.com
Website: www.ipsos.co.ke
Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe
23

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Confident with the Principle, Critical with the Practice: Kenyans Speak Out on Devolution Ke ipsos spec_poll_press_release_22nd_april_2015

  • 1. © 2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. SPEC Barometer Prepared by: Ipsos Press Release Release date: 22nd April 2015
  • 3. Methodology 3 Dates of polling 28th March - 7th April 2015 Sample Size 1,964 Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Universe Data collection methodology Sampling error Face-to-Face interviews at the household level Poll funding Ipsos Limited Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas +/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level (Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)
  • 4. Sample Structure Statistics 4 Region Sample Frame statistics (April 2015) *Weighted data % Population Census as at 2009 Adults (18 years +) % Central 257 13 2,548,038 13 Coast 173 9 1,711,549 9 Eastern 293 15 2,907,293 15 Nairobi 206 10 2,042,770 10 North Eastern 94* 5 929,158 5 Nyanza 257 13 2,547,980 13 Rift Valley 484 25 4,795,482 25 Western 200 10 1,980,090 10 TOTAL 1,964 100 19,462,360 100
  • 5. Quality Control Measures  For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout  Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their households to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).  After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: an independent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of the respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).  Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes and longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.  Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure conformity to the sample’s statistical parameters. 5 Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highest possible integrity of obtained results/data
  • 7. 28% 2% 30% 8% 11% 9% 10% 1% 1% 9% 22% 28% 23% 4% 4% 2% 5% 1% 2% Catholic Catholic Charismatic Mainstream Protestant (ACK,… SDA Evangelical Other Christian Muslim Refused To Answer/None No religion Public Sector wages/salary Private sector wages /salary Gains from self employment/… Agriculture (own/household farm) Livestock Given money by others Pension from previous employment Other Don’t Know Refused To Answer Demographic Profile 10% 9% 13% 25% 5% 15% 13% 10% 51% 49% 28% 29% 18% 25% 37% 63% 100% Nairobi Coast Nyanza Rift Valley North Eastern Eastern Central Western Female Male 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45+ Urban Rural Kenyans 7 Region Gender Age Setting Religion Nationality Source of Household Income Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  • 8. Demographic Profile 4% 14% 19% 14% 26% 8% 7% 3% 3% 1% 42% 33% 11% 4% 1% 1% 0% 2% 7% No formal education Some primary education Primary education completed Some secondary education Secondary education completed Some middle level college (not… Completed mid-level college (Not… Some University education University education completed Post Graduate (Masters, MBA, PhD) Less than 10,000 10,001 – 25,000 25,001 – 40,000 40,001 – 55,000 55,001 – 75,000 75,001 – 100,000 100,001 and above Has No income RTA/DK 8 Level of Education Monthly Household Income (ALL members of the Household) Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  • 9. Demographic Profile 41% 18% 11% 10% 7% 5% 5% 2% 1% Self-Employed Unemployed Employed in the private sector Peasant/herder (own farm/pasture) Casual labour Employed in the public sector Student Retired Other 9 Employment Status Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  • 11. Awareness of Any CDF Project in the Locality (Single Response): (By Total, Setting) 11 40% 9% 8% 7% 1% 1% 4% 30% 29% 13% 6% 8% 1% 6% 37% 46% 7% 10% 7% 1% 3% 25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Total (n=1,964) Urban (n=729) Rural (n=1,235)
  • 12. “Do you think CDF is still needed to promote development at the local level?” (By Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/ Coalitions) 12 85% 10% 5% 87% 8% 5% 86% 10% 4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% YES NO Not Sure Total (n=1,954) CORD Supporters (n=623) Jubilee Supporters (n=867)
  • 13. “Do you think CDF is still needed to promote development at the local level?” (By Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/ Coalitions) 13 93% 87% 5% 9% 2% 4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% CDF has been "a complete success" (n=700) CDF has been "only a partial success/failure" (n=634) YES NO Not Sure
  • 14. Preferred Oversight Responsibility for CDF (of Those 85% Who Want It To Continue At All) (By Total, Supporters of Main Political Parties/Coalitions) 14 38% 41% 18% 2% 39% 46% 14% 1% 40% 38% 20% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% MPs/Parliament County Governments Central Government Not Sure Total (n=1,678) CORD Supporters (n=541) Jubilee Supporters (n=748)
  • 16. “Are you satisfied with the opportunities made available to the public for public participation by the..?” (By Total) 16 42% 44%45% 41% 9% 11% 4% 4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Central government County government Satisfied Not satisfied Not sure Not interested in participating
  • 18. “Altogether, do you support devolution , that is, having county governments in Kenya?” (By Total and Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions) 18 78% 77% 80% 21% 23% 18% 2% 1% 1% Total (n=1,964) Jubilee Supporters (n=867) CORD Supporters (n=623) YES NO RTA
  • 19. “Altogether, do you support devolution i.e. having county governments in Kenya?” – Trend Analysis 19 69% 78% 28% 21% 3% 2% September 2014 (n=2,021) April 2015 (n=1,964) YES NO RTA
  • 20. “How much confidence you have in each of the following, a lot of confidence, some confidence, only a little confidence, or no confidence at all in …? (By Total) 20% 22% 21% 19% 38% 44% 37% 34% 18% 19% 21% 21%22% 14% 20% 25% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Your County Assembly Representative (MCA) County Governments Governors Senators A lot of confidence Some confidence Only a little confidence No confidence at all Don't Know 20Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  • 21. 21 Desired Changes in the Constitution
  • 22. “What changes would you like to see in the current Constitution, if any?” (Multiple Response) (By Total) 13% 11% 9% 9% 9% 5% 3% 1% 1% 1% 10% 20% 25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% A reduction in the number of elected officials Limits on salaries and benefits for senior government officials/more powers to the SRC Replacement of IEBC Less power for the governors/counties Health services to remain a central government responsibility More power for the governors/counties A move away from pure presidential system to parliamentary system Increase presidential powers Strengthen chapter 6 on integrity of leaders Bill of rights Invalid answers (not relevant to the Constitution) None Not sure 22Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
  • 23. For further information contact: Dr Tom Wolf Research Analyst tpwolf1944@gmail.com Victor Rateng Project Manager - Opinion Polls victor.rateng@ipsos.com Website: www.ipsos.co.ke Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe 23